Stormier and more intriguing weather pattern still imminent but cold air remains limited through at least next week

 In the last post, I put some special emphasis on the idea that although the upcoming weather pattern appears favorable for storms, it does not especially favor bitterly cold weather. I've been at odds regarding this point with a few other notable longer range forecasters yet in spite of all that, my own forecast ideas were still too cold for the next two weeks. A blocked pattern supported only by a negative -NAO is typically not all that cold and all that's fine but we need to see some storms and some snowfall to begin moving our ski season in a positive direction. I was hoping we could gain a little clarity as to when we might see some significant snowfall but instead I need to go with the theme that temperatures will remain on the milder side a little longer and east coast storminess capable of impacting Vermont with snow is still likely more than a week out.

In the meantime it's another rain event event Tuesday, Tuesday night and into early Wednesday with temperatures generally in the 30's or low 40's. A few areas could see some freezing rain for a while across the high country, but this appears to be a significant precipitation producer gone to waste. I hope this is the last liquid we see for a while and while it's no guarantee, we have a good chance of beginning such a streak after the rain tapers off Wednesday.

 Drier air will build across the region later Wednesday and encompass the region Thursday but the stiff north to northeast wind will be bringing southward, air that simply isn't that cold. Remember, the jet stream block will be producing a pool of relative warmth over northeast Canada so that source of cold will be lost to us for a while. Still. there is enough cool air in place for the American GFS model to tease us with the possibility of some wet snow on Friday and into the weekend. The smart phone should be promising dry weather for northern Vermont on Friday and into the weekend and I think that's right. Two major ensembles are keeping storminess and all of the either rain or snow south of Vermont and I think the GFS is out to lunch with its more northerly track. Yes, never downplay the possibility of a late inning northward shift but this pattern also doesn't quite favor that kind of magic. 

Much of next week also doesn't look especially cold. Given the lack of arctic air, readings appear more likely to average above as opposed to below normal. Ensembles continue to favor a stormy pattern however and at varying runs of different models have produced all kinds of terrific looking fantasy winter storms. Given the continued presence of an downstream blocking jet stream structure, any east coast cyclone will have the opportunity to intensify and get stuck close to the coast offering up the possibility of several days of precipitation. Just find us a way to get at the moisture and away we go. I would love to provide a few more details good or bad as soon as possible, hopefully with the next post in a few days. 

Looking even beyond next week, there are more encouraging signs on the temperature side of the equation. The signal for the downstream blocking or negative NAO begins to decline after December 16, but as this is happening the upstream support for transporting colder weather from the Eurasian continent improves and the period leading up to the winter solstice might feature a decent round of colder weather. Still looks overall to be more of a stormier as opposed to a cold pattern.