We got another holiday coming in hot and could use a weather pattern that isn't as hot or more accurately mild. As I've enjoyed pointing out, we've been more fortunate with MLK weekend than we have for the Christmas holiday and I have thus coined the term MLK magic when discussing weather situations. And we need some serious magic with our upcoming situations and are running out of time for it to happen.
As recently as 5 days ago, computer models were simulating some outlandish outcomes with this upcoming storm set to impact us Thursday January 12th through early Saturday January 14th. Most of these scenarios involved a lot of rain in mild weather. With the event now more imminent, model consensus has reverted back to indicating a winter weather event Vermont is more accustomed to. We will work with limited existing area of low level cold on Thursday and get a period of snow beginning in the middle of the morning and persisting until early evening. Higher resolution data hasn't been especially aggressive with accumulations but front end thumping is often under-estimated as is the nature of the snow, which should remain powdery while it's actually falling. Saw a local TV met suggest a wet snow Thursday and this might be right across the Champlain Valley, but high country temps should stay in the 20's during the day Thursday.
The track of this moisture-rich storm system has shifted south just a bit but the potential for a coastal low takeover appears considerably lower. The low pressure center in question is actually expected to track right over or just north of the MRV and subsequently into the NEK. This makes it a colder storm but there are clear indications that above freezing mid-level warmth consumes us Thursday evening and turns precipitation to sleet or freezing rain and unfortunately it appears to be more of the latter. It will depend on where you are, but there will be locations that see some significant icing since I think temperatures will struggle to warm out of the low 30's or above the freezing mark Thursday night. By Friday morning, models do show readings a few degrees above the freezing mark with a few hours of moderate to heavy rain. To avoid this outcome the storm track needs to shift another 100 miles south. Assuming it doesn't, we can expect 2-4 inches of snow Thursday, some ice Thursday night, some rain early Friday and then a bit more snow late Friday afternoon, Friday night and very early Saturday. I would describe the setup for that back-end snow as mediocre with a favorable flow setup but minimal instability. I actually think we can procure another 2-4 inches of snow out of this making for some wind blown dust on a bit of crust situation by the ski day Saturday. The first day of the holiday weekend should feature clouds and snow flurries giving way to sunshine and temperatures in the 20's. Not especially cold but a persistent north wind will make an average January day feel a bit colder. So to summarize, it's 2-4 of snow and ice Thursday and Thursday night and then rain early Friday and another 2-4 late on Friday and Friday night.
Both Sunday and Monday look like outstanding weather days with decreasing winds Sunday and Monday while the storm offshore sucks all the cloudiness away. Both days could turn out to be complete bluebird specials with temps rising into the 20's Sunday and 30's Monday. Enjoy that sunshine because I don't see too much of that for the rest of the week and not a lot of accompanying cold weather either. Though readings continue to look well above average through January 20th, there have been indications that we could avoid another excessive round of temperatures. There are two storm systems of note next week, one during the middle part of the week and one at the end. This means a lot of cloudiness as mentioned and probably some rain from the first one. The late week system has little cold air to work with, but an optimal track could it at least make it interesting ahead of the January 21-22 weekend.
The aforementioned 3rd full weekend of what has, so far, been a miserable winter weather month in Vermont appears to be the target date for a pattern change. Ensembles are now more aggressively indicating the change which consists more of a stormy pattern in the period between January 21st and January 25th and finally the arrival of some arctic air before the last weekend of the month. What I especially like is the formation of a legitimate jet stream block north of the eastern Eurasian continent. It is the strongest feature on the playing field in 7-10 days and it's a mechanism capable of delivering arctic air southward at least into Canada and ending what has been an excessive stretch of warmth especially in the eastern part of the country. Various ensembles have differed with the evolution of this blocking feature and how much arctic air might be driven south into North America but there seems to be a consensus that the mild pattern will be driven away for the last third of January opening the door for some sustained winter weather in Vermont.
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