In the short term, the frontal assault of bitterly cold temperatures on northern New England dominates the headlines. This is a very remarkable surge of arctic chill in an otherwise very mild winter and reminds me of a similar type of event in the similarly mild Super Nino winter of 2016. The 2016 event occurred around Valentines Day that winter and this one is actually briefer but has even more impressive raw data attributes including actual temperature readings that could drop to -35 F on the top of Mt Washington. The MRV is going to get a healthy taste of all this with the front plowing through our region very early Friday morning and bringing with it a brief period of snow. The airmass is a classic, super stable push of shallow and extreme arctic cold meaning that I expect sunshine to return on Friday morning as temperatures drop toward the -10 level and generally remain there throughout the day with wind chill temperatures of close to -50 at times. Even the valley locations will see readings generally below zero through much of the day Friday.
Gusty winds will continue Friday night as temperatures drop to 20 below in many areas, but Saturday is as bluebird as bluebird can be and the strong winds will slowly abate as the day progresses. That sunshine will help push temperatures just above zero and thanks to those decreasing winds, I think Saturday is the more comfortable of the next two (Friday and Saturday) if you can just avoid those early hours. And just like that, the cold is gone during the day Sunday with southwesterly winds bringing readings back toward the freezing mark during the afternoon. Clouds will also return on Sunday but like many of the clippers so far this season, much of the limited moisture appears north of us and any light snow should not amount to much.
The uglier part of the outlook remains in place as of Groundhog Day 2023. It's a lousy weather pattern anchored by lousy teleconnection indices and an angry Pacific Ocean. There is a small blocking feature indicated to sit above the Eurasian continent in the Arctic and this feature will help keep arctic air in Canada, as I've mentioned a few times, but other than that we are getting very little help. Throughout this winter and going forward into this pattern, northern New England has been substantially less bad than much of the rest of the east coast which has seen no winter. Over the next two weeks, I expect this to continue with some tough days ahead but there's pockets of potential around the surges of milder temperatures.
As for the specifics, we certainly have a better idea on how the next week will play out and the milder temperatures should stay out of our way until at least early Tuesday. The first big push of milder air appears to arrive later Tuesday and should consist of stretch of above freezing temperatures that lasts 24-36 hours. Some of the operational models have reduces the intensity of this first torch meaning that temps might be held to the 40's, but 50 degrees is still a risk during the middle of next week and this will be accompanied by a snow eating and damaging wind. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal Thursday and Friday but at least we could see readings return to sub-freezing levels during the overnights.
The weekend of Feb 11-12 could just turn out rainy and mild much like it will be for the rest of the east coast. But northern New England does have a chance at making something happen in this period. Cold air will, as mentioned, be close by in Canada as the jet stream begins to amplify along the east coast. In a game of Texas Holdem, this is a bad hand we've been dealt but we could get dealt a river card next weekend and steal a hand is how I see it and get some new snow. In other words we need a lot of things to fall into place just right, but I think its possible in Vermont while it's a zero chance farther south. Ensembles indicate a more amplified pattern after February 12th ant not in a good way. Arctic air appears more present but in the wrong area. A flatter pattern in this time frame would yield substantially better results so although the outlook isn't great, hope is not yet entirely lost.
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