A couple of hours of wet snow Thursday is the consolation prize we are receiving for our latest rain event, coming on the heels 20 below normal temperatures, it hurts a little more. The wet snow could come down hard for a short period of time and even accumulate an inch or two, but there is no escaping an evil warm layer expected to overspread the region by the time it gets dark Thursday. Precipitation in most areas is expected to become rain though the inversion is expected to remain in place for a good part of the overnight which keeps the door open for freezing rain and ice over the high country. Sometimes the inversion sets up so that elevated locations warm up first but this appears to be a case where the mountains have the best chance of getting an ice accumulation. The heaviest precipitation over and done with by 2 am Friday and even the lighter rainfall will push off to the northeast before daybreak. A mild westerly wind is expected to dry things out a bit during the day Friday and warm temperatures up into the 40's. A few breaks in the overcast, which certainly seems possible, could boost temperatures further.
Most of the weekend is expected to be sub-freezing with the exception of a few hours Sunday afternoon at lower elevation. Clouds should clear away Saturday with readings in the 20's while an intense area of low pressure develops over the southeast U.S. keeping the clouds away from us and allowing for a clear and more seasonable Saturday night into early Sunday. Yes, we said a few prayers for this aforementioned storm, but the fact it will become detached from the jet stream is not one of those fruitful scenarios. The European model continues to slow the eastward progress of this rain and wet snow producing system which is expected to position itself near the Virginia Tidewater on Sunday and this means that models not totally sorted out all the specifics, but the consensus continues to keep the moisture south of Vermont and the brief colder interlude this weekend is expected to get overrun with mild air at the beginning of next week.
Every day next week is now indicated to feature at least a period of above-freezing temperatures and the risk for an excessive thaw featuring at least 48 consecutive hours of 40-plus temperatures, rain and wind continues to rise. A big storm is predicted for the southern Rockies toward the middle of next week amplifying the jet stream configuration in North America in a bad way. It's terrific for the southern Rockies and awful for us in northern New England. Doesn't appear to be a game over situation though for winter (more on that in a minute) and even next week, as bad as it looks is not a guaranteed meltdown yet. The big storm in the southern Rockies is expected to push east and track up through the St Lawrence Valley, spreading excessive warmth out in front of it, but the St Lawrence Valley is 150 miles away, not 500. Move one or two shortwaves in the jet stream different directions on the weather map and the pattern could end up flatter with a more mitigated thaw. I've certainly seen it happen.
Arctic air looks like it will then make a return for the weekend of the 18th and 19th of February. We are looking at a partial pattern realignment and certainly a colder outcome, but the polar air will have to battle it out with mild temperatures that are expected to remain in the southeast. It's more classic La Nina, but at least we got a chance to spin up a snow event in that setup where as next week appears very, very challenging.
This winter needs a reboot.
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