MRG opening moved up to Thursday, a chilly Day 1, but the outlook beyond that looks milder and an ugly late Sunday rain looms

A healthy batch of refrigerated Canadian air was able to establish itself over northern New England early  Tuesday and will keep it wintry for the remainder of the work week. Readings are likely to stay below 25 on the mountain Wednesday and Thursday and then climb into the low 30's for Friday. Overnight low temperatures will fall to near 10 Wednesday morning and make a bid for zero Thursday morning on top of our snow cover. Approximately 4 feet of snow has fallen above 3,000 feet at Mad River Glen and I am sure this, combined with the efforts of the mountain ops folks has pushed opening day up to Thursday. It's a good day for an opening and perhaps the coldest weather we might see for a while and I would certainly encourage folks pick one of the first three days to get out and enjoy it. Saturday will see moderating temperatures (near 40), but winds should remain on the lighter side, visibility will remain excellent and much of the fallen snow will remain. 

Is there a more miserable SOB than an inland runner during a Vermont winter. It was a fool's errand to think we could escape such an occurrence in December and mother nature is nice enough to grace us with one a few days after the Mad River Glen opening. The overall pattern fundamentals are worsening, more on that later, and Saturday's strengthening storm in the central plains, is going to get too jacked up too early and will track through the central Great Lakes by early Sunday. We will be able to keep a percentage of Sunday dry, but expect winds to increase as the day progresses and temperatures will make a run at 50 degrees. And then we get the rain, potentially a lot of it, Sunday evening and night and if current indications hold, it will do serious damage to the snow currently on the ground. Colder weather and minimal amounts of snow can be expected to return for the duration of next week beginning late Monday but this is a tough body blow to endure.   

The late Sunday rain is part of a larger scale pattern realignment  where much of the high latitude blocking is eradicated and the AO turns positive. Some blocking is indicated to establish itself over the northeastern Eurasian continent, but this mechanism will focus much of the cold on Alaska beginning next week and when Alaska gets cold typically we are not. A jet stream focusing cold on Alaska is also not too friendly to the Pacific which is expected to get a little angrier by next week. With this in mind, the temperature outlook appears milder and after what should be a few sub-freezing days next week, we should anticipate another round of milder weather of an uncertain magnitude between December 18 and 21. 

Though the 10 middle days of December will certainly not feature a great weather pattern, I was actually someone surprised that one of my favorite indices, the EPO, appears to be fighting for neutrality throughout the forecast period. I alluded to the fact that the Jet Stream in the Pacific looks tighter in the weeks ahead, but we've seen a lot worse last year and during some years prior. This keeps the door open for a storm and some snow even with the milder temperature outlook.