Greetings arctic air !! It's been a while, but we're happy to have you back and hope you intend to stick around this time. By the looks of this weather pattern, we might be able to accomplish that, though it's going to be a ride over the next week. Lots of things on the weather map to watch starting a weekend snowstorm for the northeast. This already juiced up southern streamer will get an added supply of Atlantic Ocean moisture and further intensify off the Jersey coast Saturday night into Sunday morning. The track of this storm doesn't favor heavy snow for central and northern Vermont, but it doesn't favor a shutout either. The entirety of the MRV should see light snow develop Saturday night and continue through most of Sunday. Certainly nothing spectacular, but temperatures will be in the teens and 20's all weekend and 2 to as much as 5 inches is a welcome sight. Yes, we have a few outs left in this baseball game and could northward shift ourselves into a heavier accumulation. I'll keep my eyes open for that, but I don't consider it as likely.
Alright, there is a lot of discuss with a potential storm next week. We saw some good trends here, but the horses aren't in the barn yet and its admittedly frustrating. We have a lot of the right ingredients to make this happen. Arctic air will be spilling into Quebec and try and wedge itself into interior northern New England late Monday into Tuesday . Most importantly is a massive block in the jet stream setting up shop just east of Greenland that can often (though not always) work to keep the storm track south of us. In this case, the active Pacific will produce a mammoth storm for the eastern Rockies and southern and central plains early next week. This sucker intensifies way too early for my liking and will spin its way toward the eastern Great Lakes. A downstream block and cold air damming battling it out with a storm that is trying desperately to push warm air our way. We need the storm to occlude, transfer its energy to the coast and halt any warming. Models are showing hints of this but not as much as I would like. The low pressure conglomeration is aimed right at or a little north of us Wednesday. We need a southward and eastward shift !Even as it stands now, we are in line to get some substantial snow and sleet Tuesday night into Wednesday which would make this a nice base building foundational type of event. It's still possible for a better storm though and we are owed !
As that is all happening the mechanisms are in place for a massive buildup of arctic cold in western North America. The train of Pacific systems is slowing the southward progress of this cold but the EPO is expected to weaken by the end of next week and allow more of this cold to spread further south and east over North America. The air behind Wednesday's weather system doesn't appear especially cold but by MLK weekend I expect more of that to enter our weather picture. There's also more storminess indicated out ahead of that arctic push with another potential storm indicated just prior to that aforementioned holiday weekend. Again, we need favorable track for some heavier snowfall to occur and the jet stream as of now, seems happy to aim another one right at us. A very warm Great Lakes aggregate thanks to all the warm weather in December is certainly not helping us in this regard. This will change over the next few weeks but this and the strong El Nino are tertiary adverse influences.
The El Nino I mentioned appears to have peaked for the season which is good news going forward and so is the weather pattern which is supportive of sustained period of colder weather for the middle to end of January. The NAO plunges to a -2 next week before relaxing, but remaining favorable while ridging over the Bering Sea works to drive cold southward and weaken the jet over the Pacific. We will conjure up some sort of storm or multiple storms in this period beginning MLK weekend and lasting through most of the rest of the month. It's a very nice looking set up !
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