Mad River Glen is enjoying the best stretch of blue sky in months, though we could certainly use a bit of natural snow and instead we are about to get hit with some milder weather. Fortunately the incoming thaw looks ordinary and short-lived. We have a few early March-like afternoons coming our way with temperatures climbing just above the freezing mark at the base Wednesday, Thursday and Friday while below normal temperatures continue to prevail during the overnights. Some sunshine will mix with intervals of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday and then clouds appear more prevalent for Friday. Saturday is our mild day with temperatures climbing up into the 40's at lower elevations and near 40 in summit areas. The rainfall appears very minimal Saturday evening and is likely to total around a quarter inch if that, and some of that precipitation will mix with or even turn to a period of snow above 3,000 feet.
I've been watching closely with how models continue to handle a potential storm early next week and my head already hurts. Models have just been all over the place over the past 48 hours. A Euro run on Monday showed a rain producing inland runner and subsequent models today have shifted the storm well south of us and suggesting Vermont will see a minimal impact. The most recent American model did not show a particularly optimal jet configuration because the storm is not given the chance to intensify near the coast before getting ejected out over the open water. The operational Euro Tuesday afternoon wasn't exactly stellar either, but the the Euro Ensemble continue to indicate the possibility for a decent period of snow late Monday Feb 12th into Feb 13th while the Canadian Ensembles hint at this to a lesser extent. Over the next 24 hour, I think we will have much more clarity on whether this potential completely fizzles or not.
An excellent combination of teleconnection indices will drive the weather pattern beginning around Valentines Day and continuing for most of the back half of February. Any lover of winter weather needs to develop an affinity for a negative Arctic Oscillation, a key driving force for ensuring an optimal storm track and an available supply of colder air. We have that and it's expected to remain with us through at least later February, at times reaching -2 which is pretty impressive. The -AO will be joined by ridging at high latitudes both in western North America and over the Davis Strait. This combination will very much reduce the risk for any rainfall or any prolonged thawing during the back half of February; in fact, all three of these features might work to keep some potential storm action south of Vermont, a problem we haven't really dealt with since the Super Nino winter of 2016 and many of the 5 winters prior to that. A big force that could counteract the suppression of storminess is the ferocious looking southern stream. The current El Nino, though already peaked, is still expected to feature a robust looking southern branch of the jet stream which will, in my opinion, limit the intensity of any arctic cold and provide many areas with snow potential a few times. It should be a fun ride after we get through the bout of milder air Saturday !
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