We've seen some expected northward shifting with Tuesday's winter storm, now projected to move offshore in southern New Jersey rather than the Virginia Tidewater. This places Mad River Glen at the northern edge of accumulating snow Tuesday and puts southern Vermont in some of the heaviest snow with ski areas there now expected to get around a foot. This is one of the stronger storms of the season and certainly capable of delivering over two feet over a broad swath of New England with the low pressure area expected to deepen to near 980 mb south of Cape Cod. The storm's movement is mostly east in this instance and is moving quickly allowing most of the heavy snow to end before the end of the day Tuesday. Light snow should begin before dawn Tuesday, persist for several hours during the ski day and end by early afternoon with 1-4 inches expected. More northward shifting is certainly possible and would bring us into heavier snowfall. For now, the sweetspot begins in southern Vermont and extends southward through the Berkshires and northwest Connecticut and westward into the Catskills.
The storm on Tuesday, even if it only grazes us, marks the shift into the colder weather pattern we've been anxiously waiting for and begins an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. If we get lucky, the high country might avoid any above-freezing temperatures until March though that can be a lot to ask during the higher sun angle days of later February. Temperatures will be in the 20's on Tuesday while the light snow is falling and this will be accompanied by gusty north to northeast winds. Wednesday will also be a little blustery with intervals of sunshine to go along with occasional snow showers. With the storm on Tuesday departing so quickly, Wednesday's snow showers don't appear to be a nothing burger, especially in the morning and is likely to yield a small accumulation. Winds are expected to diminish Thursday and at least half the day should be bluebird material with temperatures starting in the single numbers and rising to 20.
There will be several chances for snow in the coming two weeks. The first comes Thursday evening from a clipper system poised to bring cold air reinforcements for the weekend. Snow from this more benign system could begin as early as Thursday evening and should bring at least a few inches for the ski day Friday. Though snow from the clipper system is only likely to bring a light accumulation of 1-3 inches, additional snow showers on Friday should bring more. Being that it remains 4-5 days out, we can expect some changes as the nuts and bolts of this setup become clearer.
With our collection of teleconnection indices (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO) favoring cold weather for the next 10 days, with some favoring cold through the duration of the month, there will be plenty of opportunities for snow and it will at times be a bit difficult to identify beyond a few days out. The upcoming week is a good case in point with snow now appearing more likely now on Wednesday and Friday even if we do miss the bulk of Tuesday's winter storm. El Nino is weakening, but remains prevalent and is expected to send a bunch of southern stream energy toward the east coast for the weekend of February 17th and 18th. With the polar jet reemerging as a force in this equation, models will have a difficult time accurately sorting through the many interactions. Next weekend is one example and a storm is certainly capable of getting churned up in this time frame. Another potential big east coast storm is then possible sometime around February 20th or 21st and this could help usher in some of the coldest weather of the season for northern New England in its wake. Speaking locally, our biggest obstacle is that the aforementioned teleconnection indicators are TOO aligned and might suppress some of the heaviest snowfall. With Lake Champlain almost entirely unfrozen, opportunities will continue to show up even if we miss on the big storm potential.
No comments:
Post a Comment