Got a real solid update on our powerful winter storm storm incoming. Just a beautiful elevation event for the northern Green Mountains and it really just comes down to sorting through all the particulars which we will try to do in this update.
Meanwhile, sunshine finally made an appearance and another round of sub-freezing temperatures Friday night should give us a short break from the mud. We've managed to eradicate the excessive warmth for the time being but temperatures are still running above normal and are more typical of the back half of March than the first half. All that said, even the limited amounts of cold appears to be enough to keep this upcoming event snow above 2,000 feet and mostly snow between 1000 - 2000 feet. Clouds from this approaching weather system should arrive just after sunrise Saturday and continue to thicken throughout the ski day.
I was really encouraged to see data from higher resolution Euro and NAM indicate very robust strengthening of low pressure near the Jersey coast Saturday night. This feature will quickly become the dominant component of this system, consolidating the storm as it tracks just west of Boston on Sunday. With temperatures rising into the 40's across valley areas Saturday and near 40 across the high country, precipitation is likely to start as a mix or rain depending on elevation Saturday evening. Wet bulb readings suggests a quick turn to snow above 2000 feet and a gradual turn to snow above 1000 feet. Very heavy snowfall is indicated on a few simulations early Sunday morning before a potential lull in the storm during the middle part of the day.
Snow consistency appears pretty wet below 3000 feet during the first part of this event. There is a substantial column of boundary level air indicated to be in the 28-33 degree range on model cross sections through midday Sunday. Keep in mind that heavy wet thump snow can both make travel conditions very treacherous and cause power outages, especially when combined with wind. Conditions begin to change late Sunday as colder air begins to settle across the high country as the flow becomes northwesterly. This is ultimately what will separate this storm from the pack this year as the setup appears outstanding for a continuation of colder snow across the mountains Sunday evening, night and Monday. The flow looks great and the storm will be slow enough to depart to allow lingering moisture to just hammer the northern Greens with continuous cold snow. Here are my expectations on snow totals period by period. Please keep in mind that this is a very elevation sensitive event and if you're reading from the Champlain Valley, your outcome will be very different and considerably less snowy than the one forecasted for the mountains.
Saturday Night: Mixed precip changing to snow - thump potential toward dawn. 6-12 inches mostly wet snow
Sunday Day: Heavy snow early, possible lull midday or afternoon. 3-6 inches mostly wet snow
Sunday Night: Snow occasionally heavy. 6-12 inches of powder
Monday: Snow or snow showers. Another 6-12 inches !
Total storm accumulations by Monday evening: 21-42 inches
Snow will be out the door by Tuesday and temperatures will moderate approaching 40 degrees at base areas with the help of some sunshine. Stronger doses of sun on Wednesday will boost readings even further. Clouds are expected to return later in the week and there is a risk of light rain or mixed precipitation before cooler conditions return for St Patrick's Day weekend.
I still like the idea of a colder regime settling that could begin with some snow on St Patrick's Day. More generally however, it looks like we have a return of more wintry conditions by Monday and that should bring the potential for additional snowfall in some form during the week beginning Monday March 18.
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