Our white Thanksgiving is on track and on target. Over the past 24 hours and especially in the last 8 of those hours, models have converged on a scenario only slightly different than the one I proposed a few days ago. If we allow for one more northward nudge, a foot of snow is likely for Mad River Glen and Sugarbush. The National Weather Service in Burlington does not totally agree with this thinking and the point and click forecasts for the Waitsfield covered bridge are indicating less than an inch of snow for Thursday with the same Thursday night. Though this would seem to indicate that us weather people are not on the same page, we aren't too far apart either. NWS has central and southern Vermont painted in a Winter Storm Watch and this extends as far north to southern Washington County, but not quite to Waitsfield or Warren. I wouldn't worry about it as I think they will make a more favorable adjustment before the end of the day.
Snow should begin in the vicinity of 8 or 9 am on Thanksgiving and fall at a rather steady rate through late in the evening. This a a very garden variety Vermont snowstorm with a benign area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley gathering a bit of fuel on the Atlantic Coast and depositing a swath of snow across central New York and interior New England. The one adjustment I would make relates to the snow consistency. Temperatures do not support a powdery snow in valley locations and will be hovering around the freezing mark through much of the day. Readings will be closer to 30 degrees around 1,600 feet (MRG base) and 25-28 closer to the summits which does support a drier snow. The moral of this story is to prepare yourself for varying snow consistencies if you venture out. I continue to expect snow accumulations of 8-14 inches. The heaviest area of snow might be south of MRG but I expect at least a 4 inch snow as far north as Stowe so I am surprised how bearish the snowfall forecast from NWS looks for some of these areas in northern Vermont. Again, I would fully expect them to adjust by the end of the day or early tomorrow.
A pattern supporting a widespread area of below normal temperatures in eastern North America remains on target beginning this weekend and persisting through much of the first half of December. What a sight to behold watching the EPO crash deep into negative territory the way it has for the back half of this month. There are a lot of warm feedbacks that need to be dealt with stemming from the onslaught of warmth that has persisted through much of 2024. Much of eastern North America will be enveloped with colder weather for the next 20 days giving us the opportunity to neutralize much of this as we proceed to the core of the cold season.
Divergent westerly flow in Vermont will give the region an opportunity for some sunshine both Friday and Saturday. Most of both days will be sub-freezing with the exception of the afternoons in valley areas. Over the mountains, light snow showers and flurries will be more prevalent though accumulations will be minimal and confined more to the snowbelt areas of New York state and Jay Peak which tends to do better with west or southwest flow. More clouds and a period of steadier snow are possible for Sunday as the flow turns north. Temperatures will then remain in the teens and 20's for the first week of December with snow possible from a weak clipper on Wednesday and perhaps a stronger one later in the week.
2 comments:
NWS doing some pretty odd stuff right now where we are under a new winter storm warning but the existing maps it links to from this morning show barely any snow at all. The text forecast also shows a dud for montpelier, while we also have a warning. Yes Montpelier will get less than the mountains but based on the current models it seems like they way underforecast and are correcting some of the products but not others. Maybe Trump is already messing with NWS, i don't know. Its really odd.
Well done Josh, you are indeed an actual forecaster. When the rest of us arm chair hacks were bummed as the European model was backing off snow totals, you came in with your first forecast, using actual knowledge, and bucked the model trends. Then, a couple days later when all hope was lost you had the audacity to double down and up the snow totals. And damn, you had it right !!! Well done.
Bottom line, looking at the models without actual smarts is just entertainment. Your the man.
Happy Thanksgiving.
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