4-7 Wednesday night, some cold, light windblown snow Saturday and a slower temperature moderation Christmas week

Our round of new snow Wednesday night is on track and will mark the beginning of a nice stretch of pre-holiday wintry weather in northern Vermont. I had hoped that the responsible wave of low pressure would achieve a bit more legitimacy as it tracks over Cape Cod very early Thursday, but 1014 mb might be about all we can muster. The flat wave is still good enough to produce a period of wet snow beginning around 5-6 pm Wednesday evening and persisting for several hours. As expected, snow showers are expected in the aftermath although most of those will occur in the early morning and we should experience some clearing during the ski day Thursday. Accumulations get downgraded to the 4-7 inch category. Temperatures are still expected to drop enough by early Thursday to dry out the snow with readings on the mountain hovering near 20 and high 20's in valley locations. 

Models are telling me Friday is full of clouds with temperatures mostly in the teens. In the morning most of the clouds and some of the associated light snow will be over Michigan and rival state Ohio and my thinking is this will help induce a period of morning sunshine over us. Clouds, when they do arrive, will be a later day thing as the aforementioned clipper tries to merge with energy offshore Friday night. Right now, this merging is expected to take place too far east for heavy snow in Vermont or almost anywhere along the northeast coast. Coastal locations could still get a snow event of sorts but our snow will be generally light with accumulations in the windblown 1-4 inch category. The wind is a bigger story Saturday. When combined with actual temperatures of around 10 degrees, gusts over 30 mph will bring wind chills well below zero and easily make for the coldest ski day of the year. Wind chills are expected to be even worse Sunday in spite of more sunshine. Actual temperatures are expected to stay in the single numbers on the mountain and this means wind chill numbers lower than  20 below. 

Our winter solstice arctic outbreak is centered over New England and eastern Canada and is easily the coldest since late January of 2024. Temperatures might be even colder were it not for the Hudson Bay remaining more than 50 percent ice-free which marks the slowest pace of ice expansion since records of this began. Still, Monday January 23rd will be on old-fashion bluebird plate special with immaculate visibility, lower winds and temperatures climbing from subzero levels into the teens. We then have some good news for the duration of the Christmas holiday week with the temperature moderation appearing slower and a greater potential for some  light warm advection snowfall either Christmas Eve, Day or both. Though the rest of the country is expecting a more rapid rise in temperatures for the holiday as arctic air is expected to retreat in North America, New England seems well positioned to make the best final stand. High pressure is expected to remain situated to over the maritime region of Canada and December's low sun angle combined with an extended stretch of northeast flow, if that indeed prevails, will prevent excessive temperatures from making an assault on our ski country through December 27th.

Without a fresh available supply of colder air, there's some reason for concern as the New Year approaches and the threat of a more organized system and precipitation increases. The risk of any heavy precipitation appears low until the last full weekend of the month and then who knows. The coldest arctic air will remain bottled up into early 2025 as well but the outlook during the first full week of the new year has also shifted cooler as more ridging is now indicated in western North America. In early January, we have the climatological cushion of the coldest month of the year and a storm in the right place without the power of the polar jet can be the right ingredients for something interesting.