More concerns in the outlook, but winter is back for the weekend and a good corn horn day is on the way for Tuesday

Can't say I was especially enamored with model simulations and what they were showing over the next two weeks. I'll discuss why in a bit. In the meantime there is some wintry weather worth discussing for the weekend before we get into the mode of choppier weather conditions 

The snowfall Thursday night did not materialize as I had hoped. Jay Peak got about what I had expected for Mad River Glen and for them it was a bit of an under-performance. Stability parameters Friday night into Saturday are supportive for some snow and glancing at radar, one can see an area of snow showers and squalls trying to drift north. Not all of the short range models are convinced of a elevation sensitive accumulation Friday night, but those same models are not doing a good job of depicting the area of snow showers Friday afternoon so I am going to assume we can score a small accumulation before the ski day Saturday. The snow showers would then lighten as Saturday progresses and clouds may even give way to a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low 20's accompanied by blustery winds. These winds will lessen just a little for Sunday when we should see a mix of clouds and sunshine and afternoon temperatures closer to 30. 

There is a disturbing warming trend in the outlook yet it doesn't apply to the March 10-14 day period, this comes later. In this stretch, the mild surge is now a one day feature and it could be preceded by period of light snow Monday morning. Most of Monday should consist of clouds, lighter winds and temperatures in the 30's. Tuesday is the torch where temperatures, well up on the mountain ,get well into the 50's and this should be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which will eat away at the snowpack, especially across valley areas. This appears to be an exceptional corn horn day given the temperatures and the expectations for sunshine. It won't last however as arctic air is expected to return for Wednesday sending temperatures back below the freezing mark . Models don't entirely agree on specifics, yet their have been hints, most notably on the reliable Euro model of a decent overrunning setup for some snowfall on Thursday March 13th. Aside from that potential, the Ides of March magic seems to be alluding us right now. 

The outlook for the middle weekend in March or the 15th and 16th appears to be the most concerning. For much of this winter season, thanks largely to a tamed jet stream in the Pacific, we've avoided these overly fueled, early amplified Midwest storms. We suffered through rain on March 5th and appear to have another ominous situation  around March 16th when a deep zone of southerly flow is indicated to drive mild air well into Quebec. There's more than a week between this update and the potential situation just discussed which means there's some time for expectations to evolve and they often do. We certainly need this storm to come out of the Rocky Mountains in a less amplified state than currently indicated and this might allow some of the colder air to our north to become a more significant factor. As it stands now, it appears to be a threatening wind and rain event, perhaps more damaging than what we saw a few days ago. 

Colder air would arrive behind this system, though the pattern doesn't appear overwhelmingly cold and resembles a more typical late March set up. The Pacific has suddenly gotten hostile in March and its unfortunately been timed with a lack of blocking in the jet stream. Cold arctic is expected to remain in Canada, remaining at least somewhat in close proximity, but we are short on mechanisms to bring that cold southward or hold it in place which is why the outlook has moved in this choppier direction.

Outlook continues to inch in the cooler direction for the rest of the month

Rain never fails to be a big downer during the ski season, but the outlook going forward continues to inch in a cooler direction and models are starting to show opportunities for significant snowfall at varying times. The National Weather Service has not opted to issue Flood Warnings which is encouraging and they project ice jams to be isolated. There will be melt off and rivers and streams are expected to rise yet with rainfall totals likely to stay less than an inch and temperatures indicated to stay below 50, it will help limit the flood risk. Across low lying areas, the melting will  continue through Thursday, another mild day with some occasional light rain and temperatures holding in the 40's. We will see high cooler temperatures across higher elevation areas as Thursday progresses and snow showers will develop Thursday night. Temperatures have trended colder for Thursday night and Friday and the snow, at least across the high country, looks powdery with readings falling into the 20's. Willing to upgrade snowfall expectations to the 2-5 inch range by the ski day Friday, a wintry day with readings holding in the 20's and a stiff west to northwest wind. 

Some flurries and light snow showers are expected both Friday and Saturday and with that comes a dusting of snow. Aside from that, the weekend is seasonable with a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain and some intervals of sunshine. The blustery conditions continue into Saturday and then winds are expected to abate somewhat for Sunday. 

Seasonable March weather is expected to linger into Monday and then we still have this mild period threatening us in the March 11-14 period. I have to say however, the mild push northward is starting to look tenuous in northern New England and arctic air is starting to show its face on the outskirts of this weather picture. At the moment, the colder air is indicated to impact the Quebec weather situation more than ours, but the way things are trending, I have a feeling we are going to more shifting and a more abbreviated warm stretch next week. A storm is indicated for late next week and if enough arctic air could get involved, it would not at all be unreasonable to see some snow enter the forecast picture. For now, I think its reasonable to expect one spring-like day with the milder weather focused more on areas farther south. The storm later in the week should come to fruition in some form, but the outcome could include a wide range of scenarios. 

The longer range continues to inch cooler and snowfall opportunities are indicated on several models though we've had models show a mixed bag of weather also. Teleconnection indices have neutralized, but they aren't screaming cold yet; instead, ensembles are showing just a stormy pattern with sporadic intrusions of arctic air.

Weather conditions to take a not so friendly roller coaster ride this week

The burst of March cold air came at us with one big uppercut and sometimes when that happens, the punch is wasted and weather conditions prove to be very changeable. Such is the case with this week which started with temperatures near -10 Monday morning and will undergo a roller coaster ride over the next few days. 

The bad outcome we expect with the upcoming storm is a result of bad timing and circumstances which result in what will be a cyclone that matures too early and tracks way too far north. I've seen many storms have a similar fate in the early winter months and certainly less in the later winter months though it certainly happens. Clear skies early Tuesday morning will allow temperatures to start in the single numbers but then quickly rise even as clouds increase throughout the day as southerly flow begins to establish itself over the region. The rain stays away Tuesday and Tuesday night though many areas will see above freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon and not much of a drop off during the ensuing overnight. The rain arrives early Wednesday. Sections of the upper mountain have yet to see plain rain in 2025 and the streak will officially end with the wet weather on Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30's up high and 40's in the valley and just under an inch of rain is currently being indicated. Expect some flood concerns and some additional ice jam concerns on certain rivers and this is another excellent opportunity to point folks toward the National Weather Service as they are only organization equipped to provide detailed information in events such as this one. I might also add that my old friend Bob Hart, who teaches at Florida State, has provided free, illustrated model cross sections to the public domain and never asked for a dime. He like many of us has not been happy with the recent firings and has pulled the plug on his operation which has been up and running for 30 years. You can see his message here if you like Bob's Cool Weather Site .  Perhaps I've gotten too spoiled or old, but I've relied very heavily on this website during many weather situations here and it certainly hurts not having it. Anyway, if we can keep the rain at less than in inch, keep temperatures below 50 and can keep the wind down, the flooding won't be as severe as what we saw a few Decembers ago. I feel confident on the first  two conditions and less so about the third. At least in the exposed summits and high elevation areas, we should expect some high winds Wednesday night. 

Conditions should dry out Thursday in valley areas while lighter rain showers become snow showers across the high country. Temperatures will return to the freezing mark up high, but remain in the 40's below 1,500 feet. Accumulating is likely Thursday night into early Friday especially in the Stowe to Jay corridor and for us to a lesser extent. Subject to a later revision, I would expect 1-3 inches with most of it falling before the ski day Friday 

Temperatures are expected to return to more seasonable levels this upcoming weekend. The weather remains somewhat of a question and as much as I wish for one answer we are likely going to get another. The GFS hammers the northeast with a crippling snowstorm and almost everyone would get impacted and we would get a round of epic conditions before another run of mild weather. There is absolutely no support for such an outcome on the Euro Ensembles and likewise from the Canadian or its ensemble members. Given that, don't wishcast yourself toward a disappointment. The chances aren't zero, but not higher than 10 percent. 

The longer range outlook has trended somewhat cooler though I would be hesitant to call it cold. Before that, the period between March 11-14 continues to look very mild and could feature a multi-day stretch of spring-like weather before the cooler and somewhat stormier regime that I alluded to takes over. 

Another shout out to Sugarbush snow reporter Lucy Welch for speaking truth to power. I don't know her personally, but if she wants to write about snow on my blog she's welcome to do it.