Outlook continues to inch in the cooler direction for the rest of the month

Rain never fails to be a big downer during the ski season, but the outlook going forward continues to inch in a cooler direction and models are starting to show opportunities for significant snowfall at varying times. The National Weather Service has not opted to issue Flood Warnings which is encouraging and they project ice jams to be isolated. There will be melt off and rivers and streams are expected to rise yet with rainfall totals likely to stay less than an inch and temperatures indicated to stay below 50, it will help limit the flood risk. Across low lying areas, the melting will  continue through Thursday, another mild day with some occasional light rain and temperatures holding in the 40's. We will see high cooler temperatures across higher elevation areas as Thursday progresses and snow showers will develop Thursday night. Temperatures have trended colder for Thursday night and Friday and the snow, at least across the high country, looks powdery with readings falling into the 20's. Willing to upgrade snowfall expectations to the 2-5 inch range by the ski day Friday, a wintry day with readings holding in the 20's and a stiff west to northwest wind. 

Some flurries and light snow showers are expected both Friday and Saturday and with that comes a dusting of snow. Aside from that, the weekend is seasonable with a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain and some intervals of sunshine. The blustery conditions continue into Saturday and then winds are expected to abate somewhat for Sunday. 

Seasonable March weather is expected to linger into Monday and then we still have this mild period threatening us in the March 11-14 period. I have to say however, the mild push northward is starting to look tenuous in northern New England and arctic air is starting to show its face on the outskirts of this weather picture. At the moment, the colder air is indicated to impact the Quebec weather situation more than ours, but the way things are trending, I have a feeling we are going to more shifting and a more abbreviated warm stretch next week. A storm is indicated for late next week and if enough arctic air could get involved, it would not at all be unreasonable to see some snow enter the forecast picture. For now, I think its reasonable to expect one spring-like day with the milder weather focused more on areas farther south. The storm later in the week should come to fruition in some form, but the outcome could include a wide range of scenarios. 

The longer range continues to inch cooler and snowfall opportunities are indicated on several models though we've had models show a mixed bag of weather also. Teleconnection indices have neutralized, but they aren't screaming cold yet; instead, ensembles are showing just a stormy pattern with sporadic intrusions of arctic air.