Wintry temps and some snow over the next 10 days around a cold Monday rain/ice situation

80-90 percent of the United States was experiencing above normal temperatures on both Christmas Day and the day after Christmas Day.  The warmth is especially notable in Colorado where they are finishing an absolutely miserable snow month. Many ski areas haven't had any in weeks and the base of Aspen Mountain so a heavy Christmas Day rain shower with temperatures in the mid 40's. Stuff like that doesn't happen often anywhere in Colorado above 8,000 feet during winter. Vermont almost always has to endure some December rain, but only a minimal amount in 2025 and a very cold Friday 12/26 is helping to power the state to it's coldest last month of the year since 2000. 

We've got one challenging weather situation early on Monday 12/29 and I have more details to provide on that in the subsequent paragraph. Until then, we've got a weekend with very wintry temperatures and lighter winds. NYC has a beautiful post Christmas Snow on Friday night. This storm is getting fueled by the intense temperature gradient created by the presence of arctic air over the northeast U.S. and the warmth trying to push east over the Ohio Valley. Mad River Glen will get a small taste of this snow early Saturday morning, about an inch in total and then those clouds will give way to a bit of later afternoon blue skies Saturday. The clearing will set the stage for a sub-zero Saturday night and then a comfortable Sunday with readings climbing into the 20's along with light winds. Sunday will feature several  hours of sunshine along with excellent visibility. A real winner if you enjoy that sort of thing as I do. 

The Monday situation is hardly enjoyable and I really thought we had earned a better outcome on this one. Perhaps later in the season, the arctic air would be capable of more pushback and we are reminded again that early season storms can really be unforgiving.  This storm will provide some snowfall to the northern Rocky Mountain ski areas and then proceed to strengthen as it reaches southwest Michigan Sunday evening. By Monday morning it will be well into Quebec, pumping warm and moist air northward into interior New England. Sometimes, we can survive these kind out comes with a fresher supply of arctic cold. Front end snow can pile up and before a minimal period of mixing/rain and this was an possibility certainly alive a few days ago. Now, it appears any snow and mixed precipitation will quickly become freezing rain or rain and persist on and off for much of the day. Temperatures will stay close to the freezing mark and I think we steer clear of any strong winds and this limits the melting. Still, rain is rain and certainly an unfortunate part of another holiday season. 

The wintry finish to the holiday period remains !  It begins with some light snow Monday night following the unfortunate round of wet weather I mentioned. That light snow is then expected to become heavier snow showers Tuesday. That setup on Tuesday appears better for snow in areas from Stowe northward to Jay, but the winds become decently aligned for a bit of action for us as well. The snow showers on Tuesday will be accompanied by temperatures in the teens and this should carry through New Year's Eve when less snow is expected. Arctic air is expected to make a more significant push into New England on New Year's Day and additional snow is expected to accompany this. Right now, there are no indications of a bigger storm that will materialize here though I continue to watch for it. We do know that New Year's Day and the 2nd of January will be chilly. This will carry through the weekend and there are hints of a storm in this period and then another in the first full week of 2026. 

Rapidly changing forecast goes colder with the entirety of New Year's week now wintry after some snow and possible wintry mix Sunday

Two days is an eternity when trying to sort out details in a forecast such as this one. The forecast continues to trend, mostly in the colder direction and they're a lot of important details to update. It may have been right to get excited this past Sunday but it was a mistake in retrospect to get that detail oriented in a drastically shifting forecast. 

The short term snow for Tuesday and Wednesday was a few hours late in arriving yet still on target for a long duration light and powdery snow event for the high country. Though radar shows the heaviest precipitation across southern New England Tuesday afternoon, this will shift Tuesday evening and the synoptic forcing will be better across northern Vermont. By early Wednesday the snow event gets an extension as favorable winds wring out the lingering available moisture and deposit that mostly on the high country. I continue to think this is a 5-10 inch event for areas above 1500 feet and more of a 3-5 inch event in the valley locations. Snow will taper to flurries over the mountains as the ski day concludes and some clearing can be expected Wednesday night. 

On Christmas, more clouds in association with a quickly passing disturbance will again bring mostly light snow and a likely burst of heavy snow sometime  during the day. In this instance, the snow will be of a shorter duration yet still capable of accumulating 1-3 inches. Like I mentioned in the prior update, the cold behind our Christmas snow is an important part of the holiday outlook. The high pressure center responsible is exclusive to us and it will makes the day after Christmas dramatically colder than what was indicated several days ago. Additionally, it will serve to keep most of the precipitation this upcoming weekend of the frozen variety which is a very important development. All that said, there are some important changes in the Friday to Sunday period. Friday's snow now appears gone. I was a bit too excited about the Euro Ensembles that appeared to lock this  over the weekend; instead, the snow appears destined to hit New York City and vicinity while it's possible for a semi bluebird like day in northern Vermont or at least only some innocuous high clouds. It will be blustery and very chilly Friday with temperatures in the single numbers most of the day and wind chills below zero. Just a dramatic turn from what was indicated on the longer range models 4-5 days ago. Both the wind and the cold will abate on Saturday the 27th making for a considerably more comfortable ski day. Temperatures should reach the high teens and wind chills not be as much of a factor. The frozen precipitation appears ear marked for Sunday. The storm in question is not indicated to take a favorable trajectory, but it does show signs it wants to occlude which limits the warming and keeps the door open for a mostly snow event. At the very least, some accumulating snow by the end of the Sunday ski day is probable with a changeover to some sort of wintry mix possible Sunday night. We will need another few days and to illuminate this part of the outlook a bit more. 

The entirety of the New Year's holiday week appears colder as of this update and quite dramatically so relative to 5 days ago. The possible wintry mix on Sunday night is the last remaining obstacle, everything else appears to be a snow or nothing situation and temperatures should finish 2025 and begin 2026 in the sub-freezing category. Snow showers now appear likely both Monday and Tuesday with winds appearing more favorable for an accumulation on the latter day. Hints of a bigger snow around New Year's day are back. Were it to happen, it would be from some sort of clipper-like system that blows up into something bigger and better. I would think it's likely that some type of accumulating snow occurs in this period. Enjoy the holiday everyone ! 

Christmas outlook gets a massive boost today with snow expected pretty much every day this upcoming week and two significant accumulations!

The short term forecast, which, for the sake of this update, covers Christmas week up to 12/26 gets a really positive update today and certainly not an additional warming trend. We have some concerns in the days that follow the 27th, maybe an additional concern after the New Year's holiday but there's a lot of winter weather to talk about. When I think about this in the backdrop of what we've seen in recent Christmas holiday periods, this may be one of the snowiest outlooks I can remember in this period going back a while. 

The Merry Torchmas cards are certainly in play for a good chunk of the country. The middle and lower Mississippi Valley areas, Tennessee, Kentucky, all of the Deep South and even the Mid Atlantic will just roast with plenty of record high temperatures getting recorded on multiple days. Interestingly, even portions of the Great Lakes, which have experienced a very cold month so far, are expected to get mild and eventually wet Friday into Saturday. Interior New England is simply not going to take part in this song in dance, at least for a while. Arctic air on Monday will have a firm grip on the region and certainly us. Temperatures are generally expected to be sub 15 and the weather map would suggest a blue bird day, yet models don't agree and are suggesting clouds and even some light innocuous cold snow with minimal accumulation. Steadier snow is expected by mid morning Tuesday thanks to a decent looking clipper system. Though heavy snow isn't expected, northern Vermont, the Adirondacks and much of New Hampshire are positioned very well for an extended period of this light but steady snow which should persist through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. The long duration of snowfall will help send us into the 5-10 inch inches of new snow category by midday Christmas Eve and we should be happy with the fluffier more powdery consistency. 

While warm air is pushing northeastward on Christmas Day, it's progress into northern New England will get thwarted. It's a benign looking jet stream impulse expected to bring more light snow to us on our Christmas Thursday. Though it's still expected to be the mildest day of the week, 30 degrees is a lot better than the 70 degree readings which will be occurring several hundred miles to our south. By Friday, a piece of modified arctic high pressure situated over eastern Canada, will push south and solidify what will be a very critical hold on the region as a stronger storm system approaches from the west. The temperature boundary, which will be intense by the 26th, will certainly help enhance the area of precipitation which will start falling as snow for us late Friday. There are some similarities to the setup here and what I remember as the powder fest that occurred in what I call the 18-1 week back in February 2008. The Giants ruined the Pats perfect season on that Sunday and it pretty much snowed for 3 consecutive days after that but the memory is getting a little fuzzy and the Giants do nothing but lose now. In this case, it appears we are set up for some good steady snow through early Saturday the 27th and as the weekend progresses we are fending off a push of milder air.  Some alterations will be needed in this forecast so expect that and anticipate some great powder for Saturday if we can keep this outlook in tact and possibly some mixed precipitation and even some above freezing temperatures by later Sunday. I might also add that models have yet to converge on this scenario so expect to see some forecasts reflecting this uncertainty and it may not agree with what i just wrote. I feel a bit more confident after successive runs of the European Ensemble have indicated this late Friday to early Saturday snow followed by the chance for a wintry mix Sunday. 

Near Year's week will at least feature a more wintry start with that potential wintry mix on Sunday turning back to a colder snow Monday. Expect blustery conditions with temperatures in the teens and then those readings will moderate as the week progresses. Models have moved away from targeting the New Year's holiday specifically for a storm, they have instead done that next weekend (the 27th and 28th), so it looks drier and a bit milder though not excessively so for now. Ensembles continue to try and push a very strong ridge in the middle of the continent northeastward toward us, but it's never indicated to get that strong or extend especially far to the north. Let's hope it stays that way. We aren't getting any help from the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which makes it tough for arctic air to attain any widespread U.S. coverage. Meanwhile, the Pacific has been cooperative to varying degrees and this has helped keep the chill alive especially in Canada. The Hudson Bay is about 3 weeks ahead of last year in terms of ice coverage and this makes it a bit easier for arctic air to pool over eastern Canada. Anyway, it's exciting stuff for most of the next week and a really nice Christmas period update so enjoy what I think is coming. 

Just enough cold returns for some snow on the 23rd and storm potential around the New Year's holiday

Rain and wind got us pretty good Friday morning. South winds can really rip through both the Mad River and Champlain Valleys. In the case of the latter, winds of over 40 mph helped to break the overcast, mix out any inversion and send temperature readings briefly into the middle 60's. You had about an hour to enjoy a lakeside cocktail before heavy wind driven rain and colder temperatures arrived from New York State. 

The overall outlook which covers both holidays has inched in a slightly warmer direction. Trends are important to identify, both good and bad, because if they continue over a significant span of time the forecast can ultimately be very different. In this case, Vermont still looks to be in good shape, so long as the trend we've seen in the models over the past 24-36  hours doesn't continue in the same warmer direction. 

Winter solstice weekend will be a dust on crust situation. Enough snow showers Friday night for an accumulation, but not enough for more than an inch or two. Saturday will feature a few flurries, diminished yet still gusty winds along with some intervals of sunshine .Temperatures on the mountain are likely to hold near 20 degrees. Very light snow is again possible Saturday night with little accumulation expected and this sets the stage for a blustery solstice with readings in the high 20's. 

Christmas week starts chilly with arctic air sending temperatures in to the teens. I can't promise a total bluebird kind of day though some sun appears likely. We may have enough low level instability to produce some snow showers Monday afternoon and it's worth mentioning since winds appear aligned in a favorable northwest direction for us. Snow is more likely on Tuesday, coming from a west to east moving clipper-like system. I expect a decent period of powdery snow from this and a preliminary guess would be 3-6 inches. Snow flurries will continue into Christmas Eve along with 20-30 degree temperatures followed by a generally cloudy Christmas with readings near but not really above the critical freezing threshold. 

I had to stare at many different model simulations a good long time to try and sort out some potential details worth sharing. Generally the story remains the same with a very warm ridge parked over the central United States trying to push that warmth northeastward. Interior New England continues to appear to be a good strategic place to hide from the warm air and retain a chance for some wintry weather. That said, a few days look more dicey. Warmth will attempt at making one push north on December 26h and this could push temperatures back above the freezing mark on that Friday. Cold appears poised to fight back control of the region for the ensuing weekend and some winter weather in the form of snowfall could accompany that. 

New Year's week has a very similar roster of players. More warmth in the central U.S.while cold fights to stay in control of the northeast. There's been several simulations showing storminess and I would guess we will be on the receiving end of at least one big weather producer. The very persistent and positive AO is a big reason for the southern latitude warmth. At the same time, the action in the Pacific continues to be more favorable farther north so I remain optimistic that we can finish 2025 with some excitement. 

 

Winter weather expected to return for Christmas week following the nearly inch of 40-45 degree rain early Friday

 For many spots on the mountain, Wednesday marks the end of a 19 day run of sub-freezing temperatures. It began after a Thanksgiving day rainfall and for a few spots close to summit locations, it will continue through late Thursday. Most of  this short term period, through Thursday evening is expected to stay dry. Folks may see a bit of wet snow Wednesday evening but little to no accumulation is expected. Breaks in the overcast are expected to time out just right to support temperatures dropping to near 20 for Thursday morning before sunshine and an increasing southerly breeze boost readings up into the 40's Thursday afternoon. We all know about the rain in the forecast. It arrives late Thursday evening and becomes heavy for a short period Friday morning. It's expected to amount to just less than in inch which isn't enough for widespread flooding though it should raise rivers and creeks substantially and melt much of the snow in valley locations. Rain will end Friday afternoon and we can expect snow flurries later in the day. The weekend stays frozen with Saturday being of the cold and blustery variety (readings near 20) while Sunday features moderating temperatures to near 30. A period of light snow is possible Saturday night with little to no accumulation expected once again. 

I continue to maintain an optimistic view about the Christmas holiday week. Yes, we have a warm looking weather map for the U.S., yet that warmth is not expected to encroach on Vermont much at all. As we celebrate the winter solstice, arctic cold is expected to send temperatures back toward the single digits for Monday morning December 22nd. That advance of chill is likely accompanied by snow showers capable of providing us a small accumulation of snow. Later Monday should feature some blue sky  and this should continue into early Tuesday before clouds from the first of two potential weather producers approach. Snow from the first is most likely late Tuesday and then out by Wednesday. The weather will be too quick moving and the storm (especially the first) not strong enough for a heavy accumulation, but 3-6 inches is certainly in play. A second potential storm on Christmas Day may have a better overrunning setup. It's more than a week out on the forecast timeline making the exact timing and track somewhat of a question mark. I like where we stand right now however and think the weather pattern is very supportive of such an event. Most importantly, and this is an important part of the holiday outlook through 12/26, it should remain below freezing on the mountain throughout.  While the "Torchmas" rages across the central part of the country, Vermont should stay out of it barring an  unexpected weather pattern shift. 

I can't say the above with the same confidence after December 26th. It's possible that we can just carry the Christmas week outlook into the new year. The weather pattern is showing some similarities with interior New England remaining on the fringe of an expected torch in the mid-continent with arctic air in Canada remaining close enough to keep winter in the game. Ensembles are pushing a core of the warmth eastward just a bit after 12/27. Is this enough to push us into more milder weather just before the New Year. It's possible, yet I continue to be of the belief that any thaw will be brief.  The AO is expected to be very positive for the remainder of the year and accounts for the aforementioned warm weather. That said, I love the action in the Pacific and I think this prevents a full scale arctic retreat which would be necessary for a muti-day post Christmas blow torch. 

Early winter weather binge finally ends with some heavy rain Friday while holiday outlook appears a bit better.

The early season winter binge, which has continued more or less since thanksgiving, is finally coming to an end. It will start with a bit of milder weather, ending sub-freezing stretch of weather that's persisted since the last few days of November and then the wet weather arrives early Friday and that rainfall is now expected to get  briefly heavy. 

The darkest period of the year has the advantage of providing a limited window for daytime warming. Often times, key layers above the earth's surface warm faster than the ground, creating a stable inversion that prevents a would-be onslaught of milder temperatures. Northern Vermont gets a little help with that through Wednesday. The weather map looks mild and would produce spring-like weather were the calendar be March. In December however, a cold single digit start to Tuesday will allow us to run out the daytime clock before temperatures climb to the freezing mark; instead, they will settle in the low 20's before falling back into the teens Tuesday night. Warm convection clouds are expected for much of the day Tuesday and the radar might have it look like some precipitation is headed our way for Wednesday, but that system is expected to fall apart. The gusty southwest winds are predicted to break the inversion described above and send temperatures up past the freezing mark by a few degrees. Those winds will actually settle down for Wednesday night allowing readings to fall back into the 20's. The ski day Thursday is expected to be comfortable and precipitation free and is likely to feature a decent period of sunshine.  Clouds will increase late in the as will the southerly winds and that's when the trouble begins. 

Friday's rain producing system never even gives us a chance. It got to the point where I just hoped the system might just fall to pieces and run out of available moisture to send at us. Unfortunately, that's not the direction things are headed. Low pressure is expected to cross the country, hugging the Canadian border for a time and then advancing into Quebec, deep into Quebec. It won't fully mature until it approaches the Labrador and that means lots of time suck moisture northward. Rain will begin in the early morning become heavy sometime during the morning and then end as some snow later in the day Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to rise into the 40's and hopefully the colder air will arrive quick enough to prevent too much damage. I expect the combination of wind and rain will take out most of  the snow in valley areas while I think the snowpack takes a good punch but survives over the high country . 

For as bad as Friday's rain event looks, I am encouraged with the holiday outlook today. As I've mentioned, much of the south and a good section of the central United States have a very mild looking weather pattern. The interior northeast ? Not so much. The jet stream will continue to support holding the core of the coldest air across western North America, and much of that will be confined to Canada. Some of the cold is expected to split off and take position in eastern Canada and is generally expected to keep Vermont away from the milder air. Models have also shown the possibility for winter weather, both around the time of the Winter Solstice this upcoming Sunday and Christmas day 

Periodic light snow and colder weather through Tuesday and then we get tested with milder pushes of air

 December is a notoriously challenging month in a ski season in terms of avoiding some sort of damaging warm thaw. Glancing back through history, I was surprised to find that even in one of the colder and snowier winters of our new millennium, 2000-2001, we managed to interrupt that December with a 2-inch 40-degree rain. Not since 1989, ironically my first ski trip to the state, did we make it through an entire December without rain or a significant thaw. We will certainly earn half a trophy for 2025 since cold temperatures and occasional light snow are both expected through December 16th. After that we get tested and I don't think we go down without a fight. 

Temperatures near 10 Saturday morning won't feel too cold thanks to calm winds and a few glimpses of morning sunshine. Much of Saturday is expected to be cloudy, especially in the afternoon when light snowfall begins once again. That lighter snow will continue into Saturday evening with a minimal accumulation of an inch or two. Much of the moisture with this latest polar jet buckling will remain disorganized, though it will produce the first accumulating snow for NYC and portions of southern New England early Sunday morning. For us, Sunday will become blustery especially as the day progresses. Clouds and snow flurries will accompany some brief interludes of sunshine. Temperatures will turn colder once again with readings on the mountain hovering around 10 degrees along with those increasingly strong winds. 

Monday, December 15th will start out very cold and a period of morning sunshine is possible. Once again we can expect clouds to encompass the region and more light snow later in the day. Monday will feature less wind than Sunday but with similar temperatures of around 10 degrees. The lighter snow which will persist into Monday night marks the advance of milder temperatures. Expect Tuesday to be a bit less cold as a result with temperatures reaching the 20's. Our first real shot at above freezing temperatures, the first of the month, will come Wednesday as west to southwest winds send the thermometer to near 40 in the valleys and 30's across the high country. 

Ensembles have a wound up system tracking north of Lake Huron on Thursday, December 18th and with that comes our first real test I was speaking about. We are going to need this system to be weaker, farther south or come at us in a few disjointed pieces or else some rain and a period of mild temperatures is likely. Right now, this is tracking as a Thursday night to early Friday rain before temperatures turn sharply colder Friday morning. 

The longer range outlook consists of a lot of mild weather which is expected to dominate the middle part of North America, at least the United States portion around and after the winter solstice and through Christmas. Vermont and the rest of New England is never really expected to be at the center of this warmer outlook and arctic air is expected to remain close by in Canada. Though some rain seems probable prior to solstice weekend, we will see cold weather throughout that weekend and my preliminary thinking is that we remain on the colder side of this battle into Christmas and some winter weather is possible. This pattern is certainly capable of sending another wintry mix type system at us again. We might as well go for the inverted mush at this point regarding the holiday. We've managed to get some sort of mild intrusion almost every winter it seems so if we work that into our expectations, we can only get surprised in the right direction. Enjoy the weekend. 

 

Snowfall Wednesday and Thursday set to bring us 7-14 inches of snow across the mountains and more farther north

The Wednesday/Thursday weather map wouldn't appear ideal for snowfall at first glance, but we are enjoying a special kind of early December winter weather run and we appear in line to make the most of this event. Low pressure will track over Lake Ontario midday Wednesday and then head close to the Canadian border. This position can leave us on the short side of accumulating snowfall and it certainly isn't optimal in this case. That said, southwesterly flow does not appear to be as well defined as it did a few days ago and models are indicating a decent enough plume of moisture over most of the state. Though temperatures will approach or even exceed the freezing mark in low lying areas Wednesday, temperatures across the high country and certainly ski country will support a more powdery snowfall beginning around 9 am Wednesday and continuing in occasional bursts throughout the day. As the upper air support associated with this feature moves closer to Vermont Wednesday night, the snow intensity should become even more elevation sensitive and certainly capable of producing 5-10 inches of snow by Thursday morning at MRG, half of which occurs during the day Wednesday and half the ensuing night. Expect a lesser 3-5 inch wetter snow in valley locations. 

Better also is the support for more snow showers as the day progresses Thursday. The support for this looks sensational closer to Jay Peak, and we should see some additional accumulation in our region as well with 2-4 inches, most of which falls in the later part of the day as the flow becomes more favorable. We can expect some gusty winds both Wednesday and Thursday with Thursday featuring the colder temperatures and wind chills. Temperatures on Thursday are likely to settle in the teens before dropping into the single digits Friday. I think we are in line for some sunshine to conclude the week thanks to a weaker storm system consolidating clouds and some snow well to our south. 

The upcoming mid-December weekend continues to look wintry with some early sunshine Saturday giving way to clouds. Another buckling of the polar jet is expected to bring both a surge of colder weather and a chance for some snow. Models had been teasing the idea of a bigger storm and although this still appears somewhat possible further south, a lighter snow is more likely over the state of Vermont late Saturday night into early Sunday followed by a blustery and cold weekend conclusion. What a remarkable cold start it has been for all of New England. Early season cold has been very difficult to produce here since the coldest arctic air is required to squeeze through so many open bodies of water that have yet to freeze. We manage to pull it off however and on target to finish the first half of the month at more than 10 below the 30 year average. The second half is not expected to be nearly as chilly with arctic air shifting its focus on western North America. I continue to believe the milder intrusions will be short-lived in New England and longer in duration south of us. Some warm advection snow is possible Tuesday ahead of the first push of milder temperatures and there should be additional chances for winter weather as come colder temperatures make a return around Winter Solstice weekend. 

 

 

 

Ligher snowfalls continue the early winter binge until 12/16 when the outlook turns "less cold"

It was another cold bluebird December powder day Monday across the state of Vermont. It is especially unusual to see cold this intense so early in the winter season since the pattern is required to funnel arctic cold in a very particular direction. We managed to get a widespread outbreak of sub-zero cold Friday morning and a second such occurrence is expected Monday night thanks to the clear skies and light winds. 

Following that sub-zero Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to warm to about 20 degrees in spite of clouds.  Light snow will fall from those clouds later in the evening and accumulate about an inch by Wednesday morning. The ski day Wednesday will feature the mildest weather of the week with readings getting pretty close to the freezing mark as southerly flow tries to establish itself. The milder wind direction is in response to an approaching weather system, the strongest of the week, expected to approach us from the eastern Great Lakes. Recent model runs have managed to move this system a little further south, yet the track is still falling short of idea with the area of low pressure expected to track near the Canadian border Wednesday evening. In spite of this, models still indicate a decent period of snow later Wednesday, enough to produce a 2-4 inch snow. The risk of over-promising on these type of storms is high so I would suggest that although accumulating snow is likely in the MRV, much more is likely from Stowe northward. 

The flow is expected to turn and become west-northwesterly late Wednesday night and with that comes a window where snow showers can be expected. I was hoping this storm would be capable of producing a more extended window, persisting into Thursday, when snow showers might add to the accumulation, but with this event models are limiting this. After the 2-4 late Wednesday, we can expect another 1-4 Wednesday night with higher snow totals farther north. Conditions will be blustery Thursday with readings hovering in the high teens before falling into the single numbers Thursday night. Before I sign off on snowfall for late in the week, it is possible that a smaller disturbance enhances the snow shower activity for Thursday night or early Friday. Later Friday should feature some sunshine however as storm system well south of  us acts as the focusing mechanism for moisture, precipitation and clouds. 

The upcoming weekend is lined up to be very wintry. At the very least we can expect clouds with the chance for some light snow on Saturday. The Sunday weather map consists of a possible more organized storm that could bring snowfall anywhere between some of the bigger east coast cities to interior New England. With the early winter polar jet quite involved in the pattern, getting a handle on the eventual track can take a little longer. Regardless, temperatures will be well below freezing and will land in the teens on the mountain on both the weekend ski days. A strong dose of arctic chill is then expected to get driven into eastern North America by the aforementioned polar jet later Sunday and Sunday night. With that is likely some well below zero wind chills and a chilly Monday December 15th. 

The longer range has shifted to the less cold side in recent days. The pattern across North America is still being anchored by a really nice blocking couplet in the jet stream centered over the middle Pacific. Downstream of that, the cold is indicated to shift its focus on the western part of the continent more, mainly the Pacific Northwest along with the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. Promising warmer weather for the south-central and southeastern United States is easy, but we still expect arctic cold to remain anchored across most of Canada. The pattern toward the solstice offers the possibility of  short-lived rainy intrusion with two caveats. 1) The milder weather should not persist beyond 1-2 days and the possibility for a bigger snowfall will continue if the dominoes fall the right way.  

Wintry outlook continues into the middle of the month as opening day '25-'26 is announced

Opening Day incoming ! And it's always good to get that announcement before December 10th. Following a bluebird and very cold Friday, with temperatures on the mountain struggling to exceed 10, opening day Saturday should be more comfortable though cloudier as a disturbance well to our north eventually brings some very light snow our way. Don't expect much from this feature, maybe an inch by late Saturday evening. Arctic cold is then reinforced for Sunday, which has the possibility of featuring a period of sunshine. Wind speed should not be too much of an issue after some very cold wind chills early Friday. Winds will be out of the southwest on Saturday and will be a little gusty on the lifts along with temperatures in the 20's. Sunday will be the colder day but with less wind. 

A little more clarity is starting to emerge for next week and mostly in a positive way in terms of how it makes the snowfall outlook appear. Sunday's cold intrusion will tighten its grip on the region Sunday night into Monday, producing a very chilly early December day Monday, our 2nd in 4 days. Once again, temperatures will struggle to reach 10 on the mountain after starting below zero. Any sub-zero is impressive this early in the season since it would happen before arctic typically reaches its peak winter intensity. There are at least 2 weather systems after a sunny day on Monday that could produce snow. A clipper system will bring clouds and some snowfall late on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system should remain a clipper so this limits the upside potential on snow, but the system after that could evolve into something capable of being more significant. This would be in the time frame of Wednesday and Thursday when parts of eastern North America are set to receive a bit of milder air while Vermont hopefully remains on the snowy side of that equation. The end of next week is likely to conclude colder with the possibility of snow showers as the said colder air again reestablishes itself. 

The longer range is interesting. One of the more important features will be a jet stream block expected to situate over the Chukchi and E Siberian Sea mostly west of the Bering Sea and Alaska. After neutralizing for a few days, the EPO should thus turn negative once again and allow cold air to dominate most of Canada. This above mentioned feature is far enough to the west however to favor cold in western over eastern North America, yet Vermont and much of interior New England sits a favorable location for colder air and additional snowfall. At no point does it look like the cold is forced into a major retreat across the continent and this is very encouraging. We should continue to see snow dot the forecast for the 2nd full weekend of the month and into the week beyond. 

Early season cold expected to take a firm grip over Vermont through at least 12/11 even if snowfall opportunities are on the lighter side

Just a beautiful gentle early winter snow across the entire Mad River Valley on Tuesday. Hard to do better in a typically erratic part of the season and what's even better is that we've got cold locked into place through most of next week. Wednesday is a terrific day to enjoy Tuesday's fallen snow as well. We get some limited sunshine and temperature that mostly land in the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Arctic reinforcements arrive Thursday and with them come snow showers and snow squalls. There's a brief window  Thursday afternoon when a burst of snow is likely to get intense, but the arriving airmass is a stable one and should quiet the convective snow shower activity Thursday evening. Expect 1-3 inches across the high country Thursday with an dusting to an inch down low. Thursday night turns very chilly with readings dropping to near zero Friday morning along with strong northwest winds. On Friday however, winds should diminish some and we will left with a cold but bluebird day more typical of the middle of winter. Readings on the mountain will struggle to reach the teens. 

The weekend outlook does not consist of a ton of new accumulating snow. Saturday will feature clouds, temperatures in the 20's and perhaps a period of light snow with little accumulation. Sunday should feature more sun and it again turns colder with more arctic air entrenching itself over Vermont in preparation for the 2nd full week of the month. This period, the 8th through the 12th of the month looks solidly sub-freezing yet the outlook has turned drier from the vantage point of well-organized weather systems. Ensembles do suggest snowfall from multiple clipper systems right now though that type of outlook can evolve quickly as the period continues to get resolved by models. 

The longer range is interesting since we have a really solid core of very cold early season arctic air over the North American continent. The teleconnections, led by the EPO (weak Pacific jet stream) are supportive and most indications are that they turn from favorable to neutral by around the 10th of the month. Clearly though, there are no indications that there is a mechanism in the jet stream that will force a continental type retreat of arctic air. The core of the cold might shift west for a period after the 10th, perhaps enough to allow for a 1-2 day Vermont thaw after next week though indications are it would be very short-lived. It's quite possible that we see no such thaw at our latitude and simply receive another round of decent snow. Again, relative to a typical early December weather situation, it's hard to take too much of an issue with any of this outlook.  

 

Tuesday snowfall is the best of what appears to be a pattern capable of producing a few chances for snow through December 10

December coming in with a bang across Vermont with a terrific looking pattern featuring plenty of cold air. We can expect most of the first 10 days of the month to stay sub-freezing and this is a major victory considering the adversarial relationship this time of the winter season has with Vermont. Most importantly, we get a chance to add some depth to the healthy base of November snow that has already been provided to us (at least across high elevations). There are several chances for snow with some events clearly looking better than others now. 

A plethora of Saturday college football games featured snowfall and that system will push some snow into Vermont Sunday. Unfortunately, we can't really turn the flow out of that nasty southwesterly direction and those systems typically turn out dry for us. We can expect some on and off light snow and about an inch during the day followed by another inch Sunday night. Cold, early season arctic air then envelops the region for Monday with temperatures hovering in the high teens on the mountain for much of the day. The day should feature some sunshine, especially after the early morning. 

The storm that certainly has my attention approaches on Tuesday. We've had a promising set of model simulations and even 1 or 2 that certainly fit the "eye candy" category. This is a pretty standard variety east coast weather system however with low pressure consolidating near the Virginia tidewater region midday Tuesday and then strengthening as it moves up along the New England coastline. We need a northward shift for this storm to become the 1-2 foot powder producing snowstorm it certainly could become. When the polar jet is involved sometimes that can be more difficult, but considering the early stature of the winter season I would not rule a heavier snow total out at all. As it stands, the safer bet is for a 6-12 inch steady snow beginning around daybreak Tuesday and persisting into the evening. Wednesday appears dry with temperatures making a run into the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

The 2nd surge of arctic air should arrive late on Thurday and bring with it a brief period of snowfall, possibly in the form of some quick hitting squalls. Some early December sunshine is likely for Friday, which should again be a very chilly early winter day with temperatures holding in the teens and wind chills well below zero. As far as snow chances, one storm to watch late on Friday that may or may not stay to our south followed by better storm potential on the 7th and 8th of the month. 

The colder pattern is being anchored by a beautiful high latitude blocking set up over Alaska and now the Bering Sea with a very chill jet stream over the Pacific. This is allowing arctic cold to flood much of Canada with no real mechanism to force it into retreat mode through the first 10 days of December. There are signs on some of the longer range simulations that the cold will shift west after December 10 without totally giving up a presence in eastern North America. Certainly an excellent start to the season. 

Winter 2025-26, already off to a strong start, has some support to be a stellar snow season

Welcome to another incoming weather season powder and Mad River Glen enthusiasts. Never does it cease to amaze me how fast the descent in to winter takes place. It was only about 7 weeks ago when  much of northern New England was finished a multi-week stretch of gentle 70-80 degree warm autumn weather. As of the middle of November, deep snow has enveloped the high country of northern Vermont. Perhaps not enough to call it Snowvember 2, but enough to send the snowpack at the stake at Mt Mansfield soaring to a mid November record. 

 

 

Drought concerns have unfortunately replaced the run of recent flooding events over the past few years. October was a healthy wet month over all of northern Vermont with most areas procuring 125-200 percent of normal rainfall and this has finally begun to ease drought conditions and we can only hope that a season featuring heavy snowfall will end any drought entirely. Temperatures have been up and down throughout the calendar year. The cold start to 2025 gave way to a mild March. Bouts of cool weather in both May and early June gave way to record heat right after the summer solstice. This was then followed by warm weather in July which gave way to a cooler finish to the summer season in late August and early September. The foliage season, from a color standpoint was stunted by the dry weather but the times of first frost/freezes have been relatively normal and the Vermont landscape has the "ready for winter" look. 

Last winter exceeded many preseason expectations and it seems to have also fueled a better set of expectations for the current year. Last year was also one which defied expectations regarding ENSO with much of the season remaining relatively neutral. A weak La Nina has finally developed this summer and although some gradual strengthening has been observed, conditions remain just a shade under what I would consider to be a "moderate" ENSO event. Personally, I consider strong ENSO events of both varieties to have adverse impacts on winter weather for different reasons. Strong Pacific forcing during El Nino events often inhibit the southward progression of arctic air even as they strongly fuel the southern branch of the jet stream which can in turn lead to many east coast snow events. La Nina winter seasons are very often characterized by a strong buildup of cold over Canada but the stronger Nina seasons have been known to feature persistent southeast ridging over the North American continent. This can have the impact of severely limiting the winter below 39 N (let's call this Baltimore, MD) while Vermont repeatedly fends off inland runners that often produce some snow followed by ice and rain. I find the weaker La Nina winters preferable for this very reason. We want a jet stream capable of allowing for a buildup of arctic cold across the northern latitudes of North America, but not one strong enough to entirely eliminate the concept of split flow in the jet stream. We've really seen La Nina go both ways in Vermont and the relationship I was alluding to in this paragraph is hardly perfect. We've had some of our most historic snow seasons during significant La Nina events and also some of the worst seasons. I've also watched over hyped weaker La Nina winters become big disappointments. All we can do is use the data we have and make the best probabilistic-based guess.  

 

 

There's a happy ending in this story. The snowiest winters at MRG and northern Vermont more generally have featured similar ENSO conditions. The two standouts are 1970-1971 and 2000-2001 which are easily top 5 winters in our 76 winter dataset and maybe top 2. 2016-2017 was another winter with a similar La Nina. We had some incredible periods of snow with two extended blowtorch interruptions. 1996-1997 was similar in that regard and featured the "extension" with deep snow well into the middle of spring. The winter's of 1988-89 and 2011-12 serve as a reminder however that this relationship can break down quite easily. Overall though, we are in a good place from the standpoint of ENSO with the chances for a snowy winter more elevated. 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation  (PDO) and state of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific continues to sing a less happy tune. We managed to record some of the highest indices I've ever seen over the summer months, but have managed to bring the values down considerably in the recent months. The situation in the eastern Pacific, closer to Norrth America has been encouraging perhaps suggesting that the index might be ready to flip. What was most encouraging was an area of warm water that seemed to be developing over the Gulf of Alaska though that has been neutralized in recent weeks. It's the central Pacific which seems to be the driving force behind the positive values with very warm water concentrated near the IDL (180 Longitude). In totality, the changes in the eastern Pacific make the story look more encouraging than prior winters but the warmth in the central Pacific can't be neglected. I would imagine it playing a disruptive influence on the jet stream, shortening the duration of colder patterns which is somewhat typical during most La Nina winters. 

SST Anomaly

 The buildup of snow and  ice has managed to proceed in a fairly typical way this autumn. One has to make statements adjusting for the fact that climate change has had a material impact on ice coverage across the arctic regions during the late summer months. With that qualifier in mind, we managed to retain ice well this summer relative to recent prior summers. We then proceeded to begin building ice over the arctic regions on schedule, but in recent weeks, notable anomalous warmth in the arctic has slowed the expansion of ice and we again are challenging record lows for November for coverage. Snowfall has been better and expanded at a relatively normal pace. The coverage of snow across the northern hemisphere was rounded to 18 millions of square km which is average. Recall last  year that we were very slow to freeze the Hudson Bay which still showed some open water even in late January. Interestingly, both years that were uncharacteristically slow were exceptional snow years in Vermont (2011 and 2025). I have entirely no explanation for this and only point it out because it is likely to be another slow year unless the expected cold weather in eastern Canada early this December can expand the ice very rapidly. 

 

 

Our next section tries to "count cards" or assess some of the recent characteristics in the weather pattern as a means of predicting the future. I find there are times it's easier to simply go through this exercise than trying to lean too heavily on some poorly understood variable which can sometimes become the "hot item" in seasonal weather prediction. I've been watching a few things this fall with one being the drought which has had such a broad impact on upstate New York and interior New England. Though the water deficits remain, the weather pattern has turned in accordance with what we might expect in a La Nina season. Interior sections of the northeast are seeing precipitation and should continue to see such in December. I'll preface the next statement with some caution, but it's very encouraging to see eastern North America be a favorite spot for cool weather in a relative sense. The warm almost always outweighs the cold because again, climate change, but the long wave weather pattern can still have propensity to focus the warmth or the cool weather in certain locations and it seems, for the time being that eastern North America is the spot. Last winter turned out to be surprisingly cold also as you might recall, but in the period from March through July, western North America was the cooler part of the continent. By the middle of August, we saw a switch and in spite of a very warm interruption in late September and early October, the cool train has been on the schedule more than the warm one. 

Going to bring one more item to the seasonal forecast discussion and that relates to what make last season so spectacular. Can we pull off the trick again? It's a bit cruel to the snow lovers along the coast, but it proved be decisively important for us the last few seasons. Once again, can we kill the coastal storm ? This relationship has been utterly fascinating to me and certainly educational. Even as widespread cold gripped huge swaths of the eastern United States last year, a coastal storm and big city snow never really materialized. Models advertised several times, the internet hypesters climbed on board a few times and in the end snowfall was very limited. Not the case however across Vermont where every clipper seemed to over-deliver which is a striking contrast to all those winters where it seemed the clipper might be gone for good. The reality is that the clipper and the coastal have a relationship and both can't occupy the same space and there are winters where one is preferred over the other. It's a bit beyond my pay grade as a non-PHD level to do an appropriate analysis as to why this is. My intuition tells me it's a local sea surface temperature thing in the coastal Atlantic but I can't say this with confidence. I can say I am watching closely however. We saw two "Miller-A" style coastal storms in October. Those types of events are usually good for everyone, especially for us, but we didn't see any of that last year. Do we see more of that this year or is it a continuation of the trend we saw last year with limited coastal snow. It will hurt some feelings, but coastal pain is MRG's gain. 

With all that said we can make a forecast for the winter. Though promising sustained cold weather would be a bridge too far, I tend to believe the following winter will more closely resemble 2024-25 than the three mild winters prior to that. We managed to isolate the mild weather last  year to November, March and the Christmas holiday and with November hitting the books as a cold month, we will likely face a milder period either later in December or in early January. Still, with the ENSO under control, the PDO situation a bit adverse and the propensity of the long wave pattern to support relative chill in eastern North America, a winter with closer to normal temperatures appears more probable than an above normal winter.  Regarding snowfall, we can hang our hat on two important items. The first is the weaker La Nina and the snowy winters that have occurred in similar ENSO years such as 1970-71, 2000-2001, 2007-08, 2010-11 and 2016-17, the second is the similar sea surface temperature configuration in the coastal western Atlantic Ocean which would suggest it's another clipper over coastal situation. This latter part of the statement is some hypothesizing on my part, but so is seasonal forecasting as a whole. You expect to get surprised and hope it comes in the right direction. Enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday folks and welcome to another season. 

 

 

 

2024-2025 was a "throwback" winter in many ways and one of the best in years !

If I could describe the way many folks conduct daily banter and conversation especially with our oldest friends, a substantial percentage always seems dedicated to discussing "the way things used to be" and I would imagine that every generation has their own special reverence for how great things were 20, 30 or 40 years ago. I am fascinated with this on a philosophical level, but I am not going down the road when discussing our recent winter season; instead, I would offer that the same applies when it comes to talking about weather. Folks love to talk about the way things used to be with weather and folks that ski at Mad River Glen love to talk about the way our ski seasons used to be. If  you've spent anytime wondering we got a good answer with the weather we just had this past winter. It was very much a throwback winter and I'll go through the reasons why. Though we didn't have the big March that many recent winters have featured, we had a succession of months December, January and February, that were the coldest in 3 years and the season was highlighted by a nearly 2 month period without rain that started on the first day of the year. 

 

 

The colder weather is certainly the more obvious "throwback" part of the recent season. 5 consecutive winters prior to this one have featured mild temperatures, some extremely mild and many months within this 5 year stretch rank as the warmest or top 5 warmest months recorded. This past December, January and February broke from that and absolutely defied many of the preseason expectations and assumptions I made in November. One of the nicest things about doing this weather blog as a fun contribution is that when the weather surprises to the cold/snow side I can spend my time enjoying a bad forecast rather than anything else. In this case, it was the persistence of the cold which came as a huge surprise to me given some of the preseason obstacles. More on that in a bit. 

The 2nd "throwback" aspect of the recent winter was the return of the "clipper". The famous quote attributed to Mark Twain certainly applies here - reports of the clipper's death have been greatly exaggerated. In reality, the clipper and the classic nor'easter have a bit of a rivalry with one seemingly coming at the expense of the other. Since the turn of the century, many winters have been highlighted by memorable nor'easters and while some have delivered big snow to northern Vermont, others have missed the state entirely. In the case of the latter it is a double whammy since a miss on a classic coastal type storm means little or no snow for Vermont with nearby clippers getting zapped of energy and moisture. This winter featured the opposite. It was like pulling teeth to get any coastal storm to form. Many of the storms advertised on model simulations fell apart and as that happened, every clipper found a way to deliver for the northern Green Mountains. It made for a fantastic mid-winter snow season for Mad River Glen and even better for spots like Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak which in the latter case saw 400 inches of snow. 

 

Lower preseason expectations were predicated on the assumption that the PDO index would remain very negative through the winter season. Inter-season noise in the index is difficult to predict, yet there was still good reasons to make that assumption. The autumn values for the PDO rivaled some of the lowest ever recorded dating back over 100 years. Additionally, the previous several winters with similarly amplified negative PDO values have featured rather erratic weather patterns consistent with what you might expect. This past winter did not follow with the recent prior winters however and the PDO which began the winter season by recording a -2.39 index ended with a much closer to neutral -0.49 index. Furthermore, the index rise happened quickly and early so that it likely wasn't a substantial driving force on the weather pattern by January when the index had risen to -0.55. In reality, it's hard to quantify how much of a force the index is playing on the weather, it's merely an educated guess. Regardless, it was refreshing to see more a more neutralized sea surface temperature configuration in the Pacific and adverse upstream forces were not as evident this winter relative to recent prior seasons.

The word "neutral" was in fact a big theme of the recent winter. Expectations for the ENSO (La Nina or El Nino) were high prior to the season. A lot of winter forecasts priced a sizable La Nina into expectations and that broke down rather early; in fact, by the time I did the preseason outlook I had tempered my expectations of such an occurrence. It proved to be a worthy realization since the ENSO more or less remained neutral through the winter though there has been a recent turn toward La Nina the last few weeks and this is worth watching for hurricane season and next winter. La Nina can mean very active hurricane seasons due to a less shearing ambient jet stream environment. A moderate or strong La Nina for the winter can be hit and miss. Even the good winters however are often rudely interrupted by rainy or icy intrusions. 

November began in unspectacular fashion and though certainly ended colder than it started, we didn't have the multiple feet of snow that November 2023 brought to give the season an early boost. Still, we got a storm at the end of the month and began December with some snow on the ground. It was at that point when the season began to show signs that it would diverge both from prevailing expectation and from recent trends. The jet in the Pacific weakened substantially and provided support for colder weather for the first two weeks of the month. Snowfall for the first week of the month accompanied the colder weather and the pattern should have delivered a nice storm on December 11th; instead, the storm took a rather impolite northward turn and brought us a widespread heavy rain for the entirety of the day. The cold rain did not melt off all the snow and the precipitation ended as some snow on the 12th, setting us up for a cold bluebird mid month weekend. The subsequent winter solstice weekend was the best of the month and foreshadowed many winning weekends to come later in the winter. Snowfall late in that week preceded some of the coldest weather of the season, which landed on us on the evening of the solstice and brought temperatures down to 10 below on the 23rd. The days prior to Christmas featured an old fashion New England cold hole. The upper air pattern pointed to warm, but without much wind, temperatures in Vermont were stuck in the 20's during the day while falling to below zero at night. It all made for one of the better Christmas skiing days in several years. Unfortunately, our luck would run out with a wind driven rain on the 30th accompanying near 50-degree temperatures. Much of the exposed snow was wiped out by New Year's Eve and we, as we often have been, had to start from a very minimal base in 2025. 

2025 brought instant improvement and most importantly, some sustained cold weather powered again by a loosened Pacific jet stream and a supportive AO. Following a December that featured daytime temperatures that were more than 6 colder vs 2023,  January delivered the same and was more than 10 colder during the overnights. The intensity became an afterthought verses the sustainability, since readings remained below the freezing mark on the mountain for the entirety of the month and well into February. The snowfall situation, which was pretty dire on New Year's Day, improved immediately beginning with a few inches on the first and even more on the 2nd of the month. The personality of the winter then became more evident as several smaller more clipper-like disturbances consistently overperformed for Mad River Glen while snow lovers in coastal areas of New England grew impatient. It was "the clippper" returning to its former glory that really made January and the ensuing February special and much of the snow fell on the weekends. The first full weekend of 2025 featured single digit temperatures with several inches of cold smoke. More snow on the 7th, 8th and 9th  led us to another spectacular  2nd weekend of the month featuring more comfortable temperatures. By the middle of the month, snow conditions were amazing and we continued to overperform on the smaller events, scoring over a foot of snow on the 14th and 15th of the month. The subsequent weekend was yet another winner with more snow atop the several feet that had already fallen. A widespread outbreak of arctic cold, encompassing a large section of North America managed to dry things out in Vermont starting on MLK day . Accumulating snow didn't return until Sunday, January 26th, though again, it was snow rather than something else and this snow continued to fall for many of the remaining days of what was a fantastic January. 

There were ominous signs on some of the model simulations for early February though cold weather never appeared as if it would totally relinquish its grip on New England and it never really did until very late. Amazingly, much of the month was even better than January. 14 of the first 18 days in February featured accumulating snow. Smaller events continued to deliver and some bigger more organized events also brought snow to interior New England. Much like January, the weekend was the time to ski, and the first and 2nd of the month, though cold, had some fresh snow once again. The morning of February 2nd was the coldest of the season with readings reaching 15 below, but sunshine and calm winds and then evening snow made a quick memory of that. Some of the best days of the season happened in the 4 day period between February 6th and 9th. New snow every day, comfortable mid-winter temperatures and a well established base put an exclamation mark on what was nearly 40 days of sub-freezing temperatures and rain/ice free weather. The 2nd week of the month did, in fact, feature some ice and rain threats. The first came on the 13th, a snow event that turned to a period of sleet though no ice. The 2nd was the most anticipated event of the season and certainly the most organized and strongest winter storm. Cold arctic air settled over the region on the 14th and provided an excellent overrunning surface for the storm coming at us from the west. Arctic air successfully fought off the warm air, especially over northern Vermont where Jay Peak was the big winner. Mad River glen saw heavy, wind driven snow, a few hours of sleet on the afternoon of Sunday February 16th and then more snow for early Monday, February 17th. The sleet compressed snowfall totals though it was still the biggest of the season. The outstanding conditions resulting from that storm continued through a cold ensuing week. The shallow arctic cold did dry conditions out and it was a windy stretch making the wind chill situation a bit challenging. As a whole, February was one of the best months in the past 10-15 years and might have been #1 except for the last week. Forecast models showed a promising situation, but we lost AO support in rather dramatic fashion and mild air enveloped much of the country, even in northern Vermont where the streak of sub-freezing mountain weather finally broke on the 25th. We also saw too different periods of rain although the highest elevations managed to avoid most of it. 

We got one final taste of mid-winter weather on the first weekend of March (the 1st and 2nd) and then the pattern relented and did so quite dramatically. Thanks to the deep base, the warm weather that enveloped the region in March brought some terrific ski days of a different kind. I was trying to keep score at home and counted 7 days where we saw both sunshine and 55-plus temperatures. It doesn't seem like much but that's actually a fantastic number for March. The end of the month featured 2 events with heavy snowfall but you had to get on the mountain early before precipitation changed to ice and rain. We saw a bit of everything in early April. Our coldest temperature of the month was set early on April 2nd and 36 hours later the area was getting doused with heavy rain, thunderstorms and 60-degree temperatures. Some occasional snowfall and chilly temperatures kept deep snow on the mountain through April 16th when a warmer pattern settled over the region. The Mt Mansfield snowstake peaked in late February but made a late March and early April recovery and very nearly set a seasonal high. As of this writing, snowfall at the stake is finally ready to dive under 20 inches. 

My big take away from this recent season was this "throwback" quality to the winter. The core winter months (December, January & February) were all colder than the year prior and the clipper made a return. The interplay between the "clipper" and the "coastal" I find especially fascinating. They can't really seem to coexist. Being that the coastal, were it to be present, easily would assume the role of most dominant weather feature on the weather map, the presence or absence of this feature directly would impact snowfall from the clipper-type systems. Being that the "coastal" was absent this year, the clipper was allowed to deposit snowfall on the Green Mountains and this snowfall, quite routinely, outperformed expectations. Seems like a good academic research project from someone capable of performing such a study (certainly above my pay grade from an intellectual standpoint). My intuition tells me that the absence of coastal storms this year relates to specific sea surface temperature patterns in the coastal Atlantic Ocean waters, but I could be wrong. During the height of our glory, early in February, models were predicting over 30 inches of snow for parts of the New York City region and all but 3 inches failed to materialize. Most of the snow fell over Vermont. 

Thanks again to all the readers for allowing this to continue and a specific thank you for allowing me the liberty of playing all that music. 75 different songs in 75 different years of MRG operations. It was a fun distraction from other stuff and educational. Enjoy the summer ! 

 

 

Lots of wet weather on the way especially this Saturday and into at least early Sunday

One weather system out on the horizon has some of my attention in the first half of April; otherwise, I consider this a fairly typical up and down April weather pattern including a little bit of everything. Always find the first half of April interesting in the showcasing of so many types of extreme and severe weather. New England can still experience major winter storms as we did last year while heat is not uncommon in the south while the transitions between warm and cold can feature varying types of severe weather. Unless a winter storm materializes next week or in some later week, this will likely be my last regular update until I can do a seasonal summary. 

One of those weather transitions is occurring in southern Ontario Wednesday. A few hours of blizzard-like conditions in Toronto then gives way to ice, rain and wind and then much milder weather Thursday. Some of that weather is headed our way though I don't think we can expect too much in the way of snow. A burst Wednesday evening can give us a small accumulation and then its some later evening ice, eventually a bit of rain and for Thursday we have showery and considerably milder weather as southwesterly flow establishes itself. The higher 30-plus dewpoints should help soften the snow if you can avoid the sporadic rain. Lower dewpoints, and more sun can be expected for Friday. Temperatures will be low enough to freeze surfaces Friday morning and readings will hover around 40  on the mountain during the day meaning more variable snow surfaces. 

The weekend, especially Saurday is expected to be pretty wet as yet another storm takes a St Lawrence Valley storm track. Incredible to watch the storm track take on that mode in a general sense beginning in March and this continues with the Saturday rain. Temperatures appear to be above the freezing mark on most sections of the mountain Saturday though not by much. Expect a cold rain with readings in the 30's. More lighter rain is expected for the early part of Sunday before drier weather may begin to envelop the region for the later part of the day. 

Next week will feature the return of winter like temperatures for the first 3 days. There should be an opportunity for some snowfall as well with a good 2-3 stretch of sub-freezing temperatures at the higher elevations (valley areas will reach the 40's in this time frame). Models are signaling the opportunity for a major storm system late in the week into the 2nd weekend in April. The storm, a classic wound up, closed off storm could hug the northeast for multiple days in the best traditions of coastal New England weather in April. The storm would arrive as the aforementioned early week cold weather departs so a major winter storm is unlikely but not impossible. If the storm stays far enough south, the weather could actually turn out to be fairly nice on the weekend of April 12th to 13th. I'll keep an eye out and update this call if needed.

Cold side of an intense temperature boundary produces a snowy Saturday forecast !

 March finally has a chance to make a bit of noise in the 9th inning and it comes as part of a crazy weather setup over New England. By midday on Saturday, New England will be divided by one of the sharpest temperature gradients that one could possibly see in our region. Parts of northern Vermont and certainly northern Maine will see temperatures stuck in the 20's while portions of Connecticut reach the middle 70's. Close to 50 degrees. It's a pretty good bet that some weather will emerge from that kind of setup and we certainly have some to discuss. We haven't yet reached a total certainty on the outcome, but we are getting close and it looks pretty good for snow if you continue to be a fan of that. If you're not a fan of snow so late in the season, there is plenty of non snow in the forecast thereafter as the pattern in the first half of April appears to feature a good bit of everything including mild weather. 

Don't want to forget about the dusting to an inch of snow that we can expect by Friday morning on the mountain. It won't be much, though its part of an important feature since the weak cold front responsible will begin to allow cold early spring arctic air to build across northern New England. The airmass will actually strengthen its grip Friday night and allow temperatures to drop into the 20's even as clouds thicken and snow begins falling by morning. If model simulations are accurate, we can expect a few inches by first tracks time Saturday and if the Euro is telling a true story, the Mad River Glen to Stowe corridor will be in the best zone for heavy snowfall throughout the day and into Saturday evening. What could go wrong ? Plenty. Models aren't in total agreement on this zone of heaviest snowfall and even the Euro has sleet and ice awfully close to us. I would prefer to look later versions of the high resolution data, but some of the available stuff has us mixing with sleet and freezing rain Saturday. All that said, we sit in a good spot and its a pretty narrow zone of "good". 100 miles north and you'll exit the heaviest precip and 200 miles south and it might be 72 degrees with the sun out. Our best case scenario on snow would be close to a foot and I wouldn't bet on that outcome yet though its a reasonable chance (20-30 percent) while 5-10 inches most likely. Less than 5 inches still occupies a decent chunk of the outcome spectrum (maybe another 20-30 percent).

Saturday's winter weather event comes from a weak wave of low pressure and the precipitation is mostly result of that sharp temperature gradient. The main area of low pressure actually comes at us Monday and though cold will put up a decent fight, the track of this system is too far north to support any additional snow. Models continue to be at odds over the actual track and that will impact temperatures some but not precipitation which should be rain in either case. Intense arctic cold will envelop the region by Tuesday and may be accompanied by a bit of snow upon its arrival before we get a decent period of sun from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. More weather is expected to come at us late in the week. The GFS is showing a winter storm while other models depict a much milder scenario. Seems like a mismatch for now. Beyond the later part of next week, ensembles show a bit of milder air and then a move toward cooler weather again. Stay tuned to threads updates for further details on Saturday's winter storm and I'll have at least one more regular update next week detailing any additional winter weather.

Instability snow for later Wednesday and a precipitation battle for the weekend

As I mentioned, it's almost remarkable how March totally fell apart from a standpoint of new snow. We did receive a number of really good corn-horn days, but the month has been startling for its lack of snow. The events that we seem to be earmarked for have fallen apart or under-performed and the pattern has hardly been supportive for too many of those regardless. It's easily been the least snowiest March since the 2015-2016 winter that wasn't, but March of 2016 was hardly a surprise and felt just like a continuation of bad luck. Northern Vermont has had a very productive winter up to now and even the current month, though warm, has seen similar temps to last year which was very snowy by way of comparison. 

This week was suppose to provide a bit of an encore performance and I can't say I am enjoying the song choice as of yet. An enhanced area of instability on Wednesday is expected to situate itself over the state and provide an opportunity for some elevation sensitive snow showers and an accumulation. The day should feature some sun to start and then clouds will enhance and snow should begin, falling at varying intensities. I have to admit some hesitancy because of our struggles this month, but this is undoubtedly the deepest area of instability I have seen over the northern Green Mountains this season. Not atypical to see the best instability late in March with the higher sun angle yet still notable. Most of the ski day features more of a westerly wind over MRG which can still mean snow showers though the heaviest, with that wind direction, usually set up farther north. The wind is expected to shift and become more northwesterly in the evening which may be the time when snow is accumulating the heaviest. I am going to put out a 4-8 inch expectation with 1-3 falling Wednesday afternoon and 3-6 falling Wednesday evening and during the overnight. These events always have bust potential and like I said to open, almost every event this month has under-performed. Snowfall is expected to abate for the ski day Thursday with temperatures creeping just above the freezing mark on the mountain. Lighter snow showers are anticipated for Thursday night thanks to a quick moving disturbance which should clear for the ski day Friday. 

I am certainly not overwhelmed with the pattern for the last few days of March into early April though I will say this. There is a very impressive buildup of cold across southern Canada. Though it isn't expected to have a major impact on U.S. weather generally, it could impact Vermont and it gives us a chance, just a chance, for some sort of decent early spring event. On Saturday, a very warm push of air is pushing northward as this cold tries to anchor itself over Quebec. This gives us the chance for some overrunning snowfall Friday night and even some ice for early Saturday. Cold air is then expected to make another push south as the weekend progresses and another period of very cold rain, ice and some snow is again possible. Models aren't indicating a big event for the early part of next week and it's unlikely, yet not completely out of the question. Just a question the timing of what could be multiple waves of low pressure riding along an intense north to south temperature boundary. I would expect a day or two of wintry like temperatures just after the month flips to April  and then there are indications of another surge of mild weather for the first full weekend of April.

Colder weather and snowfall is expected over the next week though there aren't indications of a "big event" as of now

We've managed to make it out of our 2-week long warm stretch and are still alive and kicking with lots of thin cover. On Thursday, much of the New England coastline was socked-in with clouds and drizzle while Vermont ski country snuck another day of warm sunshine in. We have colder weather awaiting for the rest of the month and its simply a question of whether this pattern can produce a big storm or some deep snow. I'll take it anyway I can get it as we are 6 weeks from May and there is plenty of time for more warm weather to settle in then. 

Some rain Thursday is still expected to change to a bit of snow across the high country as a new area of low pressure slowly gathers some strength and passes over Cape Cod. The snow will persist for a few hours and accumulations in the high elevations will be in the 2-5 inch range by daybreak. Valley areas are only likely to see 1-2. Sunshine returns and dominates the skies for much of the ski day Friday. Winds will start out a bit blustery and diminish somewhat by the end of the day allowing temperatures to fall back below the freezing mark Friday night. Looks like we can sneak another semi spring-like day in on Saturday. The near 50-degree temps will be confined to the valley while readings on much of the mountain should be in the lower 40's. Much of Saturday, like Friday, will feature sunshine and then clouds will increase later in the day. 

A decent little impulse, bringing a stronger dose of early spring chill will also bring a dose of snowfall Saturday evening. Though only a temporary window, the setup looks excellent for some snowfall that should get a boost from what is now a more open Lake Champlain. It was the closest since 2019, but the lake never did freeze over thanks to the stronger than expected mild surge we got in later February and the return of milder weather in March. It's only a few hours, but our mountains should get some snow showers and squalls capable of delivering 3-6 inches ahead of a mostly sub-freezing, gusty and wintry Sunday that will feature the return of more sunshine and good visibility. 

Sunday's cold is well-timed ahead of an approaching storm system for Monday and we should be able to procure some snow out of this system, though models are not indicating the storm I had hoped would materialize. It's been the story of the year, whether it be a clipper or some other type of system. Transferring enough energy to the northeast coast to produce a more consolidated nor'easter has been a real struggle. I am sure there is a reason behind it also and in some ways it's helped revive our results from clipper type events this winter while coastal areas have really struggled with total snowfall. In this case, a matured cyclone traveling into the eastern Great Lakes will never make a complete coastal transfer, at least according to current simulations, and though some snowfall is expected, we aren't in a healthy conveyor of moisture for an extended period of time. Unless this changes, I would keep snowfall expectations below the 6-inch threshold. Cold weather is still expected as this is all happening and there should be an additional opportunity for snow showers either later Monday or Tuesday. There are also other opportunities for snow in this cold weather window. Models are hinting that a midweek system will blossom along the coast that could bring some snow. Closer to the last weekend in March, some warm advection snowfall is also possible ahead of what should be another push of colder weather to finish out the month. 

The teleconnection indices have neutralized for the very early part of April and there isn't a strong signal for a anomalous temperatures in either direction relative to normal. There are some indications that a cold pool of air could situate itself in eastern Canada and provide interior New England with more winter weather even as the mid-Atlantic and southern United States experience more warm temperatures.

Rain turns to accumulating snow Thursday night and watching a potentially bigger storm early next week

At least we managed some outstanding corn-days ahead of the rain Sunday night. It was the 2nd in a series of rain events associated by this +EPO driven weather pattern. There's a a third event that will start as some rain and then the news gets better, at least if you remain a fan of seeing more winter weather after St Patrick's Day. 

The weather this Tuesday and Wednesday can easily be compared to what we saw this past Friday and Saturday and in the same order. Sub-freezing temperatures in the early morning will be quickly erased by strong doses of March sunshine. Temperatures on Tuesday will be up close to 50 at the base and a bit cooler well up on the mountain followed by readings near 60 at the base Wednesday. Winds should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty. 

We can expect another mild day Thursday though clouds will be on the increase and this alone is expected to keep temperatures a little cooler in spite of a milder morning. Precipitation is expected to hold off until evening and yet again, we are expected to see rain at least at the start. I am very encouraged by recent data from the Euro, which is showing a new area of low pressure near the Connecticut coast quickly becoming the dominant part of this weather feature. If this happens as forecast, we should see rain turn to some significant snow Thursday night and accumulate several inches by Friday morning. This is an excellent way to greet what we expect to be a new weather pattern featuring a much friendlier jet stream in the Pacific. I'll have more confidence in an accumulation prediction in a day or two, but my early call right now would be 4-8 by the start of the ski day Friday. 

We should see clouds and snow showers break for some sunshine later Friday and most of the mountain should stay sub-freezing while valley areas creep above freezing by a few degrees. Saturday appears to be a more typical March day with chilly temperatures in the morning giving way to near 40-degree afternoon warmth. A stronger dose of late March arctic chill is expected to bring temperatures below normal for Sunday out ahead of what could be a very interesting few days. 

I think this friendlier early spring weather pattern should persist into at least early April and the best end result of it all could come early next week. The euro ensembles are showing a strong storm signal with a fresh supply of cold air in place. Good support mechanisms in the jet stream both up and downstream and I think its just a question of what kind of storm we can churn up, specifically the intensity and evolution. By my count, we remain under 10 inches of snow for the month of March and this is kind of storm that could triple that very easily so its worth watching in the Monday, March 24th to Wednesday March 26th time frame.

Terrific early spring weather Friday into Saturday before hostile Pacific jet stream brings rain Sunday night

 It's not just an effort to focus on the positive, there's some legitimate good news out there. Though we remain enveloped in a weather pattern dominated by a very hostile jet stream in the Pacific Ocean, it can produce some good corn horn days and it also looks like it will subside just after the spring equinox, potentially opening the door for an encore of early spring winter weather late this month. 

Friday looks simply fantastic. I had been concerned about clouds, and it now looks very sunny with sub-freezing morning temperatures giving way to lots of 50-degree readings. The lighter winds and lower dewpoints make it the kind of spring-like warmth that doesn't produce a ton of melt off. Saturday appears to be a warmer version of Friday with near 60-degree readings in low lying areas, 50's well up on the mountain along with slightly higher southerly winds. The rain is likely to hold off for most of the ski day on Sunday which is also good news. Still, the approaching storm on Sunday is a problem child. The storm track, which is still expected to be deep into remote Quebec, allows southerly flow to bring both mild temperatures and eventually the mild 40-plus dewpoints into Vermont. When combined with the stronger winds, the nearly inch of rain that we are expecting Sunday night will certainly melt a considerably amount of snow and cause some localized flooding. Check with NWS BTV for specific intel on flood risks if that is a concern for you. Rain is over Monday morning and a cold front will bring temperatures lower, but mild weather is expected to generally continue through the middle of next week. 

A positive EPO, indicative, of an angry Pacific Jet has been with us now for most of March and is expected to continue through most of next week. Unfortunately, this means more trouble for an incoming storm in the Wednesday to Thursday (March 19th-20th) time frame. This storm won't track as far north as its predecessor and the airmass behind this system appears cold enough to allow for some potential snowfall on the back end. I am more encouraged beyond this aforementioned storm since there are clear indications that we cam tame this beast in the Pacific, get the EPO back into negative territory and even set up some downstream blocking to our northeast. It's difficult to make promises or setting expectations too high late in March, but its worth keeping an eye on the last 10 days of March.

Happy corn-horn day Tuesday with some sunshine, the mild weather this weekend will feature much more cloudiness

Our first big springtime corn horn day is on time and on target for Tuesday. Early sunshine and blustery southwest winds will send readings soaring from sub-freezing levels in the very early morning to 50 degrees by 10 am. Even areas well up on the mountain should get impacted and could touch 50 degrees while areas near the base see temperatures up near 60. And just like that, it's over. Wednesday is back to sub-freezing cold with readings holding in the high 20's. Early Sunshine gives way to clouds and winds should remain quiet. 

The increase in cloudiness on Wednesday does precede a bit of light overrunning snowfall. We aren't expecting much early Thursday, most of which (at least during the day) should remain cloudy with the snow amounting to less than 2 inches very early in the day. Temperatures are expected to sneak above freezing again on Thursday and then soar into the 40's Friday as southerly flow envelops most of New England. 

This is simply not an exciting March pattern as of now. The jet stream in the Pacific has become very hostile and simply overwhelming parameters that might support coach, which there aren't too many of anyway. Arctic air has remained close enough this week to limit the corn horn weather to one day this week, but is expected to retreat thanks the storm discussed in the last update which is poised to track deep into Quebec this weekend. The storm does appear pretty stretched out by the time rainfall arrives in Vermont on Sunday. Before that happens, clouds should limit the visibility and the excessive temperatures. Despite that, we should still prepare for an extended stretch where readings exceed 40 degrees including the overnights when temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will not fall too much. Regarding the rain producing storm, there are hints that low pressure could help refocus the storm on the coast. Were this to be in the case, it would be nice if this would limit the rainfall across Vermont which would limit the melt-off and associated flood risk. Snowfall, if we get any out of this storm, would come during the day Monday as the storm is pulling away and colder temperatures finally work their way back into the state. 

The March 17-21st period does not appear especially wintry or cold. There's another storm to contend with right around the time of the spring equinox which would be late in this period. Though we have a better chance at a improved storm trajectory, the supply of cold air appears limited. The last full week March appears a bit better as conditions in the Pacific become less hostile and some support emerges from both the PNA nad NAO indices.

More concerns in the outlook, but winter is back for the weekend and a good corn horn day is on the way for Tuesday

Can't say I was especially enamored with model simulations and what they were showing over the next two weeks. I'll discuss why in a bit. In the meantime there is some wintry weather worth discussing for the weekend before we get into the mode of choppier weather conditions 

The snowfall Thursday night did not materialize as I had hoped. Jay Peak got about what I had expected for Mad River Glen and for them it was a bit of an under-performance. Stability parameters Friday night into Saturday are supportive for some snow and glancing at radar, one can see an area of snow showers and squalls trying to drift north. Not all of the short range models are convinced of a elevation sensitive accumulation Friday night, but those same models are not doing a good job of depicting the area of snow showers Friday afternoon so I am going to assume we can score a small accumulation before the ski day Saturday. The snow showers would then lighten as Saturday progresses and clouds may even give way to a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low 20's accompanied by blustery winds. These winds will lessen just a little for Sunday when we should see a mix of clouds and sunshine and afternoon temperatures closer to 30. 

There is a disturbing warming trend in the outlook yet it doesn't apply to the March 10-14 day period, this comes later. In this stretch, the mild surge is now a one day feature and it could be preceded by period of light snow Monday morning. Most of Monday should consist of clouds, lighter winds and temperatures in the 30's. Tuesday is the torch where temperatures, well up on the mountain ,get well into the 50's and this should be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which will eat away at the snowpack, especially across valley areas. This appears to be an exceptional corn horn day given the temperatures and the expectations for sunshine. It won't last however as arctic air is expected to return for Wednesday sending temperatures back below the freezing mark . Models don't entirely agree on specifics, yet their have been hints, most notably on the reliable Euro model of a decent overrunning setup for some snowfall on Thursday March 13th. Aside from that potential, the Ides of March magic seems to be alluding us right now. 

The outlook for the middle weekend in March or the 15th and 16th appears to be the most concerning. For much of this winter season, thanks largely to a tamed jet stream in the Pacific, we've avoided these overly fueled, early amplified Midwest storms. We suffered through rain on March 5th and appear to have another ominous situation  around March 16th when a deep zone of southerly flow is indicated to drive mild air well into Quebec. There's more than a week between this update and the potential situation just discussed which means there's some time for expectations to evolve and they often do. We certainly need this storm to come out of the Rocky Mountains in a less amplified state than currently indicated and this might allow some of the colder air to our north to become a more significant factor. As it stands now, it appears to be a threatening wind and rain event, perhaps more damaging than what we saw a few days ago. 

Colder air would arrive behind this system, though the pattern doesn't appear overwhelmingly cold and resembles a more typical late March set up. The Pacific has suddenly gotten hostile in March and its unfortunately been timed with a lack of blocking in the jet stream. Cold arctic is expected to remain in Canada, remaining at least somewhat in close proximity, but we are short on mechanisms to bring that cold southward or hold it in place which is why the outlook has moved in this choppier direction.