Lots of wet weather on the way especially this Saturday and into at least early Sunday

One weather system out on the horizon has some of my attention in the first half of April; otherwise, I consider this a fairly typical up and down April weather pattern including a little bit of everything. Always find the first half of April interesting in the showcasing of so many types of extreme and severe weather. New England can still experience major winter storms as we did last year while heat is not uncommon in the south while the transitions between warm and cold can feature varying types of severe weather. Unless a winter storm materializes next week or in some later week, this will likely be my last regular update until I can do a seasonal summary. 

One of those weather transitions is occurring in southern Ontario Wednesday. A few hours of blizzard-like conditions in Toronto then gives way to ice, rain and wind and then much milder weather Thursday. Some of that weather is headed our way though I don't think we can expect too much in the way of snow. A burst Wednesday evening can give us a small accumulation and then its some later evening ice, eventually a bit of rain and for Thursday we have showery and considerably milder weather as southwesterly flow establishes itself. The higher 30-plus dewpoints should help soften the snow if you can avoid the sporadic rain. Lower dewpoints, and more sun can be expected for Friday. Temperatures will be low enough to freeze surfaces Friday morning and readings will hover around 40  on the mountain during the day meaning more variable snow surfaces. 

The weekend, especially Saurday is expected to be pretty wet as yet another storm takes a St Lawrence Valley storm track. Incredible to watch the storm track take on that mode in a general sense beginning in March and this continues with the Saturday rain. Temperatures appear to be above the freezing mark on most sections of the mountain Saturday though not by much. Expect a cold rain with readings in the 30's. More lighter rain is expected for the early part of Sunday before drier weather may begin to envelop the region for the later part of the day. 

Next week will feature the return of winter like temperatures for the first 3 days. There should be an opportunity for some snowfall as well with a good 2-3 stretch of sub-freezing temperatures at the higher elevations (valley areas will reach the 40's in this time frame). Models are signaling the opportunity for a major storm system late in the week into the 2nd weekend in April. The storm, a classic wound up, closed off storm could hug the northeast for multiple days in the best traditions of coastal New England weather in April. The storm would arrive as the aforementioned early week cold weather departs so a major winter storm is unlikely but not impossible. If the storm stays far enough south, the weather could actually turn out to be fairly nice on the weekend of April 12th to 13th. I'll keep an eye out and update this call if needed.

Cold side of an intense temperature boundary produces a snowy Saturday forecast !

 March finally has a chance to make a bit of noise in the 9th inning and it comes as part of a crazy weather setup over New England. By midday on Saturday, New England will be divided by one of the sharpest temperature gradients that one could possibly see in our region. Parts of northern Vermont and certainly northern Maine will see temperatures stuck in the 20's while portions of Connecticut reach the middle 70's. Close to 50 degrees. It's a pretty good bet that some weather will emerge from that kind of setup and we certainly have some to discuss. We haven't yet reached a total certainty on the outcome, but we are getting close and it looks pretty good for snow if you continue to be a fan of that. If you're not a fan of snow so late in the season, there is plenty of non snow in the forecast thereafter as the pattern in the first half of April appears to feature a good bit of everything including mild weather. 

Don't want to forget about the dusting to an inch of snow that we can expect by Friday morning on the mountain. It won't be much, though its part of an important feature since the weak cold front responsible will begin to allow cold early spring arctic air to build across northern New England. The airmass will actually strengthen its grip Friday night and allow temperatures to drop into the 20's even as clouds thicken and snow begins falling by morning. If model simulations are accurate, we can expect a few inches by first tracks time Saturday and if the Euro is telling a true story, the Mad River Glen to Stowe corridor will be in the best zone for heavy snowfall throughout the day and into Saturday evening. What could go wrong ? Plenty. Models aren't in total agreement on this zone of heaviest snowfall and even the Euro has sleet and ice awfully close to us. I would prefer to look later versions of the high resolution data, but some of the available stuff has us mixing with sleet and freezing rain Saturday. All that said, we sit in a good spot and its a pretty narrow zone of "good". 100 miles north and you'll exit the heaviest precip and 200 miles south and it might be 72 degrees with the sun out. Our best case scenario on snow would be close to a foot and I wouldn't bet on that outcome yet though its a reasonable chance (20-30 percent) while 5-10 inches most likely. Less than 5 inches still occupies a decent chunk of the outcome spectrum (maybe another 20-30 percent).

Saturday's winter weather event comes from a weak wave of low pressure and the precipitation is mostly result of that sharp temperature gradient. The main area of low pressure actually comes at us Monday and though cold will put up a decent fight, the track of this system is too far north to support any additional snow. Models continue to be at odds over the actual track and that will impact temperatures some but not precipitation which should be rain in either case. Intense arctic cold will envelop the region by Tuesday and may be accompanied by a bit of snow upon its arrival before we get a decent period of sun from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. More weather is expected to come at us late in the week. The GFS is showing a winter storm while other models depict a much milder scenario. Seems like a mismatch for now. Beyond the later part of next week, ensembles show a bit of milder air and then a move toward cooler weather again. Stay tuned to threads updates for further details on Saturday's winter storm and I'll have at least one more regular update next week detailing any additional winter weather.

Instability snow for later Wednesday and a precipitation battle for the weekend

As I mentioned, it's almost remarkable how March totally fell apart from a standpoint of new snow. We did receive a number of really good corn-horn days, but the month has been startling for its lack of snow. The events that we seem to be earmarked for have fallen apart or under-performed and the pattern has hardly been supportive for too many of those regardless. It's easily been the least snowiest March since the 2015-2016 winter that wasn't, but March of 2016 was hardly a surprise and felt just like a continuation of bad luck. Northern Vermont has had a very productive winter up to now and even the current month, though warm, has seen similar temps to last year which was very snowy by way of comparison. 

This week was suppose to provide a bit of an encore performance and I can't say I am enjoying the song choice as of yet. An enhanced area of instability on Wednesday is expected to situate itself over the state and provide an opportunity for some elevation sensitive snow showers and an accumulation. The day should feature some sun to start and then clouds will enhance and snow should begin, falling at varying intensities. I have to admit some hesitancy because of our struggles this month, but this is undoubtedly the deepest area of instability I have seen over the northern Green Mountains this season. Not atypical to see the best instability late in March with the higher sun angle yet still notable. Most of the ski day features more of a westerly wind over MRG which can still mean snow showers though the heaviest, with that wind direction, usually set up farther north. The wind is expected to shift and become more northwesterly in the evening which may be the time when snow is accumulating the heaviest. I am going to put out a 4-8 inch expectation with 1-3 falling Wednesday afternoon and 3-6 falling Wednesday evening and during the overnight. These events always have bust potential and like I said to open, almost every event this month has under-performed. Snowfall is expected to abate for the ski day Thursday with temperatures creeping just above the freezing mark on the mountain. Lighter snow showers are anticipated for Thursday night thanks to a quick moving disturbance which should clear for the ski day Friday. 

I am certainly not overwhelmed with the pattern for the last few days of March into early April though I will say this. There is a very impressive buildup of cold across southern Canada. Though it isn't expected to have a major impact on U.S. weather generally, it could impact Vermont and it gives us a chance, just a chance, for some sort of decent early spring event. On Saturday, a very warm push of air is pushing northward as this cold tries to anchor itself over Quebec. This gives us the chance for some overrunning snowfall Friday night and even some ice for early Saturday. Cold air is then expected to make another push south as the weekend progresses and another period of very cold rain, ice and some snow is again possible. Models aren't indicating a big event for the early part of next week and it's unlikely, yet not completely out of the question. Just a question the timing of what could be multiple waves of low pressure riding along an intense north to south temperature boundary. I would expect a day or two of wintry like temperatures just after the month flips to April  and then there are indications of another surge of mild weather for the first full weekend of April.

Colder weather and snowfall is expected over the next week though there aren't indications of a "big event" as of now

We've managed to make it out of our 2-week long warm stretch and are still alive and kicking with lots of thin cover. On Thursday, much of the New England coastline was socked-in with clouds and drizzle while Vermont ski country snuck another day of warm sunshine in. We have colder weather awaiting for the rest of the month and its simply a question of whether this pattern can produce a big storm or some deep snow. I'll take it anyway I can get it as we are 6 weeks from May and there is plenty of time for more warm weather to settle in then. 

Some rain Thursday is still expected to change to a bit of snow across the high country as a new area of low pressure slowly gathers some strength and passes over Cape Cod. The snow will persist for a few hours and accumulations in the high elevations will be in the 2-5 inch range by daybreak. Valley areas are only likely to see 1-2. Sunshine returns and dominates the skies for much of the ski day Friday. Winds will start out a bit blustery and diminish somewhat by the end of the day allowing temperatures to fall back below the freezing mark Friday night. Looks like we can sneak another semi spring-like day in on Saturday. The near 50-degree temps will be confined to the valley while readings on much of the mountain should be in the lower 40's. Much of Saturday, like Friday, will feature sunshine and then clouds will increase later in the day. 

A decent little impulse, bringing a stronger dose of early spring chill will also bring a dose of snowfall Saturday evening. Though only a temporary window, the setup looks excellent for some snowfall that should get a boost from what is now a more open Lake Champlain. It was the closest since 2019, but the lake never did freeze over thanks to the stronger than expected mild surge we got in later February and the return of milder weather in March. It's only a few hours, but our mountains should get some snow showers and squalls capable of delivering 3-6 inches ahead of a mostly sub-freezing, gusty and wintry Sunday that will feature the return of more sunshine and good visibility. 

Sunday's cold is well-timed ahead of an approaching storm system for Monday and we should be able to procure some snow out of this system, though models are not indicating the storm I had hoped would materialize. It's been the story of the year, whether it be a clipper or some other type of system. Transferring enough energy to the northeast coast to produce a more consolidated nor'easter has been a real struggle. I am sure there is a reason behind it also and in some ways it's helped revive our results from clipper type events this winter while coastal areas have really struggled with total snowfall. In this case, a matured cyclone traveling into the eastern Great Lakes will never make a complete coastal transfer, at least according to current simulations, and though some snowfall is expected, we aren't in a healthy conveyor of moisture for an extended period of time. Unless this changes, I would keep snowfall expectations below the 6-inch threshold. Cold weather is still expected as this is all happening and there should be an additional opportunity for snow showers either later Monday or Tuesday. There are also other opportunities for snow in this cold weather window. Models are hinting that a midweek system will blossom along the coast that could bring some snow. Closer to the last weekend in March, some warm advection snowfall is also possible ahead of what should be another push of colder weather to finish out the month. 

The teleconnection indices have neutralized for the very early part of April and there isn't a strong signal for a anomalous temperatures in either direction relative to normal. There are some indications that a cold pool of air could situate itself in eastern Canada and provide interior New England with more winter weather even as the mid-Atlantic and southern United States experience more warm temperatures.

Rain turns to accumulating snow Thursday night and watching a potentially bigger storm early next week

At least we managed some outstanding corn-days ahead of the rain Sunday night. It was the 2nd in a series of rain events associated by this +EPO driven weather pattern. There's a a third event that will start as some rain and then the news gets better, at least if you remain a fan of seeing more winter weather after St Patrick's Day. 

The weather this Tuesday and Wednesday can easily be compared to what we saw this past Friday and Saturday and in the same order. Sub-freezing temperatures in the early morning will be quickly erased by strong doses of March sunshine. Temperatures on Tuesday will be up close to 50 at the base and a bit cooler well up on the mountain followed by readings near 60 at the base Wednesday. Winds should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty. 

We can expect another mild day Thursday though clouds will be on the increase and this alone is expected to keep temperatures a little cooler in spite of a milder morning. Precipitation is expected to hold off until evening and yet again, we are expected to see rain at least at the start. I am very encouraged by recent data from the Euro, which is showing a new area of low pressure near the Connecticut coast quickly becoming the dominant part of this weather feature. If this happens as forecast, we should see rain turn to some significant snow Thursday night and accumulate several inches by Friday morning. This is an excellent way to greet what we expect to be a new weather pattern featuring a much friendlier jet stream in the Pacific. I'll have more confidence in an accumulation prediction in a day or two, but my early call right now would be 4-8 by the start of the ski day Friday. 

We should see clouds and snow showers break for some sunshine later Friday and most of the mountain should stay sub-freezing while valley areas creep above freezing by a few degrees. Saturday appears to be a more typical March day with chilly temperatures in the morning giving way to near 40-degree afternoon warmth. A stronger dose of late March arctic chill is expected to bring temperatures below normal for Sunday out ahead of what could be a very interesting few days. 

I think this friendlier early spring weather pattern should persist into at least early April and the best end result of it all could come early next week. The euro ensembles are showing a strong storm signal with a fresh supply of cold air in place. Good support mechanisms in the jet stream both up and downstream and I think its just a question of what kind of storm we can churn up, specifically the intensity and evolution. By my count, we remain under 10 inches of snow for the month of March and this is kind of storm that could triple that very easily so its worth watching in the Monday, March 24th to Wednesday March 26th time frame.

Terrific early spring weather Friday into Saturday before hostile Pacific jet stream brings rain Sunday night

 It's not just an effort to focus on the positive, there's some legitimate good news out there. Though we remain enveloped in a weather pattern dominated by a very hostile jet stream in the Pacific Ocean, it can produce some good corn horn days and it also looks like it will subside just after the spring equinox, potentially opening the door for an encore of early spring winter weather late this month. 

Friday looks simply fantastic. I had been concerned about clouds, and it now looks very sunny with sub-freezing morning temperatures giving way to lots of 50-degree readings. The lighter winds and lower dewpoints make it the kind of spring-like warmth that doesn't produce a ton of melt off. Saturday appears to be a warmer version of Friday with near 60-degree readings in low lying areas, 50's well up on the mountain along with slightly higher southerly winds. The rain is likely to hold off for most of the ski day on Sunday which is also good news. Still, the approaching storm on Sunday is a problem child. The storm track, which is still expected to be deep into remote Quebec, allows southerly flow to bring both mild temperatures and eventually the mild 40-plus dewpoints into Vermont. When combined with the stronger winds, the nearly inch of rain that we are expecting Sunday night will certainly melt a considerably amount of snow and cause some localized flooding. Check with NWS BTV for specific intel on flood risks if that is a concern for you. Rain is over Monday morning and a cold front will bring temperatures lower, but mild weather is expected to generally continue through the middle of next week. 

A positive EPO, indicative, of an angry Pacific Jet has been with us now for most of March and is expected to continue through most of next week. Unfortunately, this means more trouble for an incoming storm in the Wednesday to Thursday (March 19th-20th) time frame. This storm won't track as far north as its predecessor and the airmass behind this system appears cold enough to allow for some potential snowfall on the back end. I am more encouraged beyond this aforementioned storm since there are clear indications that we cam tame this beast in the Pacific, get the EPO back into negative territory and even set up some downstream blocking to our northeast. It's difficult to make promises or setting expectations too high late in March, but its worth keeping an eye on the last 10 days of March.

Happy corn-horn day Tuesday with some sunshine, the mild weather this weekend will feature much more cloudiness

Our first big springtime corn horn day is on time and on target for Tuesday. Early sunshine and blustery southwest winds will send readings soaring from sub-freezing levels in the very early morning to 50 degrees by 10 am. Even areas well up on the mountain should get impacted and could touch 50 degrees while areas near the base see temperatures up near 60. And just like that, it's over. Wednesday is back to sub-freezing cold with readings holding in the high 20's. Early Sunshine gives way to clouds and winds should remain quiet. 

The increase in cloudiness on Wednesday does precede a bit of light overrunning snowfall. We aren't expecting much early Thursday, most of which (at least during the day) should remain cloudy with the snow amounting to less than 2 inches very early in the day. Temperatures are expected to sneak above freezing again on Thursday and then soar into the 40's Friday as southerly flow envelops most of New England. 

This is simply not an exciting March pattern as of now. The jet stream in the Pacific has become very hostile and simply overwhelming parameters that might support coach, which there aren't too many of anyway. Arctic air has remained close enough this week to limit the corn horn weather to one day this week, but is expected to retreat thanks the storm discussed in the last update which is poised to track deep into Quebec this weekend. The storm does appear pretty stretched out by the time rainfall arrives in Vermont on Sunday. Before that happens, clouds should limit the visibility and the excessive temperatures. Despite that, we should still prepare for an extended stretch where readings exceed 40 degrees including the overnights when temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will not fall too much. Regarding the rain producing storm, there are hints that low pressure could help refocus the storm on the coast. Were this to be in the case, it would be nice if this would limit the rainfall across Vermont which would limit the melt-off and associated flood risk. Snowfall, if we get any out of this storm, would come during the day Monday as the storm is pulling away and colder temperatures finally work their way back into the state. 

The March 17-21st period does not appear especially wintry or cold. There's another storm to contend with right around the time of the spring equinox which would be late in this period. Though we have a better chance at a improved storm trajectory, the supply of cold air appears limited. The last full week March appears a bit better as conditions in the Pacific become less hostile and some support emerges from both the PNA nad NAO indices.

More concerns in the outlook, but winter is back for the weekend and a good corn horn day is on the way for Tuesday

Can't say I was especially enamored with model simulations and what they were showing over the next two weeks. I'll discuss why in a bit. In the meantime there is some wintry weather worth discussing for the weekend before we get into the mode of choppier weather conditions 

The snowfall Thursday night did not materialize as I had hoped. Jay Peak got about what I had expected for Mad River Glen and for them it was a bit of an under-performance. Stability parameters Friday night into Saturday are supportive for some snow and glancing at radar, one can see an area of snow showers and squalls trying to drift north. Not all of the short range models are convinced of a elevation sensitive accumulation Friday night, but those same models are not doing a good job of depicting the area of snow showers Friday afternoon so I am going to assume we can score a small accumulation before the ski day Saturday. The snow showers would then lighten as Saturday progresses and clouds may even give way to a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low 20's accompanied by blustery winds. These winds will lessen just a little for Sunday when we should see a mix of clouds and sunshine and afternoon temperatures closer to 30. 

There is a disturbing warming trend in the outlook yet it doesn't apply to the March 10-14 day period, this comes later. In this stretch, the mild surge is now a one day feature and it could be preceded by period of light snow Monday morning. Most of Monday should consist of clouds, lighter winds and temperatures in the 30's. Tuesday is the torch where temperatures, well up on the mountain ,get well into the 50's and this should be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which will eat away at the snowpack, especially across valley areas. This appears to be an exceptional corn horn day given the temperatures and the expectations for sunshine. It won't last however as arctic air is expected to return for Wednesday sending temperatures back below the freezing mark . Models don't entirely agree on specifics, yet their have been hints, most notably on the reliable Euro model of a decent overrunning setup for some snowfall on Thursday March 13th. Aside from that potential, the Ides of March magic seems to be alluding us right now. 

The outlook for the middle weekend in March or the 15th and 16th appears to be the most concerning. For much of this winter season, thanks largely to a tamed jet stream in the Pacific, we've avoided these overly fueled, early amplified Midwest storms. We suffered through rain on March 5th and appear to have another ominous situation  around March 16th when a deep zone of southerly flow is indicated to drive mild air well into Quebec. There's more than a week between this update and the potential situation just discussed which means there's some time for expectations to evolve and they often do. We certainly need this storm to come out of the Rocky Mountains in a less amplified state than currently indicated and this might allow some of the colder air to our north to become a more significant factor. As it stands now, it appears to be a threatening wind and rain event, perhaps more damaging than what we saw a few days ago. 

Colder air would arrive behind this system, though the pattern doesn't appear overwhelmingly cold and resembles a more typical late March set up. The Pacific has suddenly gotten hostile in March and its unfortunately been timed with a lack of blocking in the jet stream. Cold arctic is expected to remain in Canada, remaining at least somewhat in close proximity, but we are short on mechanisms to bring that cold southward or hold it in place which is why the outlook has moved in this choppier direction.

Outlook continues to inch in the cooler direction for the rest of the month

Rain never fails to be a big downer during the ski season, but the outlook going forward continues to inch in a cooler direction and models are starting to show opportunities for significant snowfall at varying times. The National Weather Service has not opted to issue Flood Warnings which is encouraging and they project ice jams to be isolated. There will be melt off and rivers and streams are expected to rise yet with rainfall totals likely to stay less than an inch and temperatures indicated to stay below 50, it will help limit the flood risk. Across low lying areas, the melting will  continue through Thursday, another mild day with some occasional light rain and temperatures holding in the 40's. We will see high cooler temperatures across higher elevation areas as Thursday progresses and snow showers will develop Thursday night. Temperatures have trended colder for Thursday night and Friday and the snow, at least across the high country, looks powdery with readings falling into the 20's. Willing to upgrade snowfall expectations to the 2-5 inch range by the ski day Friday, a wintry day with readings holding in the 20's and a stiff west to northwest wind. 

Some flurries and light snow showers are expected both Friday and Saturday and with that comes a dusting of snow. Aside from that, the weekend is seasonable with a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain and some intervals of sunshine. The blustery conditions continue into Saturday and then winds are expected to abate somewhat for Sunday. 

Seasonable March weather is expected to linger into Monday and then we still have this mild period threatening us in the March 11-14 period. I have to say however, the mild push northward is starting to look tenuous in northern New England and arctic air is starting to show its face on the outskirts of this weather picture. At the moment, the colder air is indicated to impact the Quebec weather situation more than ours, but the way things are trending, I have a feeling we are going to more shifting and a more abbreviated warm stretch next week. A storm is indicated for late next week and if enough arctic air could get involved, it would not at all be unreasonable to see some snow enter the forecast picture. For now, I think its reasonable to expect one spring-like day with the milder weather focused more on areas farther south. The storm later in the week should come to fruition in some form, but the outcome could include a wide range of scenarios. 

The longer range continues to inch cooler and snowfall opportunities are indicated on several models though we've had models show a mixed bag of weather also. Teleconnection indices have neutralized, but they aren't screaming cold yet; instead, ensembles are showing just a stormy pattern with sporadic intrusions of arctic air.

Weather conditions to take a not so friendly roller coaster ride this week

The burst of March cold air came at us with one big uppercut and sometimes when that happens, the punch is wasted and weather conditions prove to be very changeable. Such is the case with this week which started with temperatures near -10 Monday morning and will undergo a roller coaster ride over the next few days. 

The bad outcome we expect with the upcoming storm is a result of bad timing and circumstances which result in what will be a cyclone that matures too early and tracks way too far north. I've seen many storms have a similar fate in the early winter months and certainly less in the later winter months though it certainly happens. Clear skies early Tuesday morning will allow temperatures to start in the single numbers but then quickly rise even as clouds increase throughout the day as southerly flow begins to establish itself over the region. The rain stays away Tuesday and Tuesday night though many areas will see above freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon and not much of a drop off during the ensuing overnight. The rain arrives early Wednesday. Sections of the upper mountain have yet to see plain rain in 2025 and the streak will officially end with the wet weather on Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30's up high and 40's in the valley and just under an inch of rain is currently being indicated. Expect some flood concerns and some additional ice jam concerns on certain rivers and this is another excellent opportunity to point folks toward the National Weather Service as they are only organization equipped to provide detailed information in events such as this one. I might also add that my old friend Bob Hart, who teaches at Florida State, has provided free, illustrated model cross sections to the public domain and never asked for a dime. He like many of us has not been happy with the recent firings and has pulled the plug on his operation which has been up and running for 30 years. You can see his message here if you like Bob's Cool Weather Site .  Perhaps I've gotten too spoiled or old, but I've relied very heavily on this website during many weather situations here and it certainly hurts not having it. Anyway, if we can keep the rain at less than in inch, keep temperatures below 50 and can keep the wind down, the flooding won't be as severe as what we saw a few Decembers ago. I feel confident on the first  two conditions and less so about the third. At least in the exposed summits and high elevation areas, we should expect some high winds Wednesday night. 

Conditions should dry out Thursday in valley areas while lighter rain showers become snow showers across the high country. Temperatures will return to the freezing mark up high, but remain in the 40's below 1,500 feet. Accumulating is likely Thursday night into early Friday especially in the Stowe to Jay corridor and for us to a lesser extent. Subject to a later revision, I would expect 1-3 inches with most of it falling before the ski day Friday 

Temperatures are expected to return to more seasonable levels this upcoming weekend. The weather remains somewhat of a question and as much as I wish for one answer we are likely going to get another. The GFS hammers the northeast with a crippling snowstorm and almost everyone would get impacted and we would get a round of epic conditions before another run of mild weather. There is absolutely no support for such an outcome on the Euro Ensembles and likewise from the Canadian or its ensemble members. Given that, don't wishcast yourself toward a disappointment. The chances aren't zero, but not higher than 10 percent. 

The longer range outlook has trended somewhat cooler though I would be hesitant to call it cold. Before that, the period between March 11-14 continues to look very mild and could feature a multi-day stretch of spring-like weather before the cooler and somewhat stormier regime that I alluded to takes over. 

Another shout out to Sugarbush snow reporter Lucy Welch for speaking truth to power. I don't know her personally, but if she wants to write about snow on my blog she's welcome to do it.

Weather pattern throwing hurdles at us as we head toward March

Thursday's snow didn't quite work out to what I had hoped. We got about half as much as expected got another dose of the southwesterly blues late in the afternoon which warmed temperatures on the lower mountain dramatically for a what amounted to a few hours. When it comes to weather, sometimes the bad news just comes in a big wave and this appears to be one of those days. 

The upper part of our mountains have performed just fine this week and for the most part, managed to weather the various warm pushes quite well. The snow stake at Mansfield is basically showing the depth at a peak on 2/27, even as valley areas lost a bit of their snow. We won't see additional losses of snow this weekend and still have some snow in the forecast, yet this clipper is also not materializing into the snow producing weather system that it could have been. 

Snow will arrive very late Friday evening and continue into early Saturday, depositing 2-4 inches. Aesthetically, this is a nice looking weather feature, but it simply is taking a sharp left turn into Quebec too early and leaving us in a drier quadrant of the storm; in fact, one would need to travel well north of Montreal to get into the better conveyor of moisture.  Expect a midday break in snowfall during the day Saturday aside from a few flurries followed by a round of evening snow showers. With the storm pulling so far to the north and given the amount of ice on Lake Champlain, it is pretty hard to get bullish on the back-end snow. Models do indicate some and expecting an additional 1-3 is not a big ask or an unreasonable expectation. Temperatures will be up around the freezing mark again on Saturday during the day and sharply fall off Saturday night into Sunday. The ski day Sunday looks frigid with single digit temperatures accompanied by 30 mph wind gusts. Most of the day will be bluebird which will certainly help. 

The mid-week storm will rank as the most frustrating moment of the season for me weather-wise. We have this beautiful ridge setting up in western Canada and undercutting split flow that in many cases can send a major winter storm in our direction. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work the way conventional wisdom would suggest. The cold late this weekend is poorly timed and we don't have the blocking mechanism to hold it in place. By the middle of the week, a overly mature, severe weather producing storm will make its way into the plains and head toward the central Great Lakes. A weaker, less amplified system would be more likely to transfer its energy to the coast and thwart a warm up and this storm just appears too dominant for such a fate. Unless we see some changes late in this forecasting game which is still possible, we will get an early March thaw and some rain when we don't deserve one. Monday is a bluebird special with -10 degree morning readings warming to 20 in the afternoon, Tuesday we are up into the 30's with early sun followed by clouds and then the mild weather will make its push. There have been some indications of some overrunning snow Tuesday night and although this is certainly possible, Wednesday appears windy and mild with rain up and down the mountain late in the day and perhaps a bit of heavy rain in the evening or overnight hours. Given the depth of the snow, especially over the high country, we really have to hope we can minimize the rain and wind as they are, aside from eating away at skiable snow, present a flood risk for areas prone to river flooding. Wind and cooler temperatures are expected to follow for Thursday with some back end snow likely as the day progresses. There is a 2nd weather feature, also a product of the split flow and this is expected to have some sort of east coast impact Friday into Saturday March 8th. 

The EPO is expected to take an adverse turn by the 2nd week of March and this is going to bring us some hurdles for the middle part of March as well. When the Pacific gets a bit angry like this, much of the unsettled weather is focused on the western United States and cold is often bottled up in the northern part of the continent. Weather systems can defy conventional wisdom as the storm next week seems intent on proving, but ensembles are not showing the northeast to be an especially favored location for winter weather in the middle of the month. Overall it's a somewhat surprising turn in the weather pattern, yet the EPO has also been favorable a lot more than I expected given conditions in the Pacific Ocean going into the season. 

Lastly, I want to give a shout out to the folks at NOAA and the pain they are enduring from yesterday's firings that were done without cause. There are times I might disagree with a product or a forecast, but that does not suggest I don't respect the work they do. The private sector is not equipped and does not want the responsibility of warning in extreme weather situations and the organization has come a long way over the past decades as to the way it communicates to the public in those situations. Additionally, collecting upper air data, maintaining radar sites, running computer models, providing data that keeps our airplanes from crashing, marine forecasts that keep mariners out of trouble, river forecast centers that monitor flood risk, maintaining our network of satellites and monitoring air quality levels are all pretty vital. Though plenty of tax dollars  are wasted, NOAA is a pretty well run outfit, especially considering they make all these efforts publicly available so that stooges like me can blog about it for 20 years specific to our mountains. I wouldn't be able to do it without their efforts.

Nice looking short term outlook on snow, watching a storm next week and a potentially milder middle of March

 Some areas of the Mad River Valley saw their first rain of 2025, but some areas way up on the mountain did not ! The southwest flow, which we've done well to avoid for much of this year so far, did provide a gut punch though as it often does. It's part of a widespread mild weather onslaught across the United States which exceeded expectations almost everywhere. Interior New England would do well in this setup to get any taste of winter and fortunately we should do better than that. 

Our Thursday snow evolves from a feeble looking system spinning its way through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. The area of low pressure is expected to gather just a bit of intensity and some additional moisture as it makes a northeast push toward Vermont. Though the storm won't be strong enough to produce any type of truly memorable powder, the trends over the past 24 hours have been positive and the area form north-central Vermont to northern New Hampshire and all the way through interior Maine appear to be positioned quite well for a decent snow. This snow should begin before daybreak Thursday and become heavy for a brief period during the midday hours. The snow will then become lighter as the afternoon progresses and evolve into more of a snow shower situation Thursday night. Temperatures continue to appear as if they will hover close to the freezing mark in valley locations, yet on the whole, the storm looks a touch colder with readings mostly in high 20's on the mountain and more limited time, if at all, for southwesterly flow to dampen things in the later afternoon (though we should expect some of that in the valley anyway). There will be more elevation sensitivity with the snowfall which should amount to 6-8 inches on the mountain Thursday with another 2-5 falling Thursday night into early Friday. Weather systems are moving briskly this week and the snow showers early Friday will dissipate and we can expect a chilly day with temperatures falling back toward the high teens. 

Our 2nd in a series of storms will approach faster than what was conveyed in the previous update and begin depositing a colder snow on MRG just after midnight Saturday.  Dynamically, this storm appears more impressive than Thursday though it lacks the moisture and is also poised to track right over us as opposed to the preferred trajectory - south of us. Still, we remain in line for a 2-5 inch snowfall early Saturday followed by another 3-6 inches Saturday evening and night thanks to an optimal looking snow shower setup. Expect Saturday's temperatures to remain in the 20's with lighter winds, but Sunday's readings will be close to zero. Early March sunshine will help a little Sunday, but prepare for wind gusts up to 30 mph. 

The weather pattern for the first 10 days of March continues to appear supportive for winter weather though operational models continue to paint a more choppy situation. The concern revolves around a potentially big precipitation producing event and strong storm on March 5th and 6th (A Wednesday and Thursday). The storm could even have multiple acts that extend into Friday, March 7th with different results in each act. As I mentioned, there's enough support in the weather pattern for this to evolve into a major winter storm. given the support from the ridge in the northwest part of our continent. Models continue to simulate a milder scenario with an over-amplified storm in the plains making a beeline for the eastern Great Lakes and thus pumping mild air into northern New England. I am not resigned to that outcome as of yet and was encouraged as the overnight Euro model trended toward a less milder storm and some snow on the back end. Expect this forecast to evolve over time as it appears to be a complicated multi-day weather situation. 

Beyond March 10th, we lose the support of the EPO and don't have many friends in high latitude places (if you know what I mean). This makes the outlook appear milder mid month and leaves us susceptible to some sort of mid-month thaw. 

3 snowfall opportunities over the next 5-6 days with the cold pattern backing off some in early March

Temperatures moderated significantly Monday and it's dramatic enough that one can probably start to smell the next season. Regardless of how the weather pattern turns out, March always features a handful of spring-like days and very often its sandwiched around some of the best powder days of the year. If I had to guess, we should more of that this year. 

The short term outlook reflects much of what was just described. I get a little nervous when I see strong periods of south of southwest flow show up over northern Vermont. Those are often not kind to our valley in the winter as it can quite often get warmer than anticipated and eat a lot of snow. In the case of this week, those periods appear isolated and capable of melting some snow in valley areas while the high terrain remains close to the freezing mark. There's also some chances for snowfall that need to be highlighted so here are the details. The first "torch" period comes Monday night and fortunately the flow is expected to weaken by daybreak. My hope is that temperatures just hang out near the freezing mark and thus any wind isn't especially damaging. Clouds and lighter winds Tuesday should prevent readings from getting too high, yet they will be above 40 in valley locations and above freezing for the first time in many lower mountain locations. Some elevation sensitive precipitation then arrives in the afternoon and this should mean snowfall for the mountains and a mix in valley locations. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night should allow the snow to accumulate 2-4 inches by the ski day Wednesday with a slushy inch or so in valley locations. Aside from some lingering flurries Wednesday morning, the day will be dry with some intervals of sunshine. The now retreated polar air barely makes a reappearance in northern Vermont and just in time for the arrival of our next system which appears benign but has enough moisture to make some noise. I would very much prefer it if this very weak area of low pressure early Thursday would make a pass just a bit further south as opposed to veering left at the last 2nd into Quebec. As it stands, the northern half of Vermont is in line for a decent dose of overrunning snowfall early Thursday and then another period of warming south to southwest flow in the afternoon. The day is thus expected to feature some powdery mountain turns in the morning and valley melting in the afternoon, a fairly typical trait for March. The snow shower setup for Friday looks promising and this is likely going to make it the best of the week with temperatures falling back toward 20 degrees and healthy north to northwest flow bringing in some supplemental moisture. Total snowfall appears to be in the 3-6 inch category Thursday and will include some wet snow in lower elevations and a powdery 3-6 for Friday with the return of gusty winds. Warm periods appear to be Monday night and Thursday afternoon. 

2024-25 has had a distinct trend of Sunday powder days and the weather is lining up to present that to us again on the first full weekend in March. Models have been split as to the track of what is expected to be a very vigorous clipper system and one that should start bringing snow to northern Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night followed by snow showers on Sunday. Saturday's temps appear seasonable with lighter winds under the clouds and some potential afternoon snow while Sunday appears very cold with temperatures 10-15 along with some wind. Final snowfall will depend on the track, but I would put odds of 3 inches of powder for Sunday at 70 percent. 

Ensembles have backed off the intensity of the cold pattern for early March though they are still supportive of a generally favorable jet stream through March 10th. It's probably worth highlighting a potential trouble spot in the recent European ensemble data around March 5th and 6th though given the supportive feedback mechanisms coming off a cold winter, this trouble spot could easily become our next chance for a big snow. Regardless, there will be several opportunities for some early March snowfall beginning with the Sunday event already highlighted.

A few mild days showing for early next week followed by several potential storms and a return of colder temperatures

A bit of surprise snow Thursday night and some more Friday sun makes the wind a bit easier to deal with for another day. The wind won't diminish entirely for the weekend, Saturday still appears gusty with over 20 mph winds in exposed summit areas while Sunday should be a bit better with winds more in the 10-20 mph range. We are expecting more sun for Saturday while temperatures moderate well into the 20's and Sunday should feature more clouds and a little morning light snow with a 1-3 inch accumulation and afternoon temperatures that make a run at 30. 

The moderating trend in temperatures will continue into next week though this is a temporary move as I mentioned in the previous update. Winter is by no means showing signs of relinquishing its grip easily. That said, the early part of the week will feature some of the warmest temperatures of 2025 if you can believe it.  Clouds should keep readings in the 30's for Monday, a calm day if you are waiting for that news ! Those clouds should drop a bit of warm advection snow on us Monday night before southwest winds bring temperatures above the freezing mark for Tuesday. Again, the prevalence of clouds should keep readings from getting too crazy and more light precipitation late in the day may be of the elevation sensitive type with some rain falling in valley areas and snow in the higher elevations. The end of next week appears cooler and the risk for a storm continues late Thursday into Friday. This still looks like a clipper-like event and a sizable snow is contingent on this weather system catching a bit of northeast coastal fire. I am not confident as to an accumulation, but I would consider some powder likely for Friday when a surge of polar temperatures makes an advance into interior New England. 

There's a 2nd feature in this weather pattern that will take aim at the northeast for Sunday March 2nd. This appears to be a colder event and one that might impact areas farther south though it certainly bears watching. Whether that 2nd storm has an impact, the first weekend of March will be chilly with temperatures in the teens and 20's during the day. 

Beyond that there's more March storminess ready to reveal itself. The pattern appears cold, anchored at least initially, by some ridging in the jet stream near the Alaskan/Yukon border though that doesn't mean we still won't sneak in a mild day here and there in accordance with the season. That signal for a sizable storm is showing up during the middle part of the week leaving us plenty of time for the storm to disappear and then reappear on the various model simulations.

Winds will continue to gradually subside and cold to relax for the weekend

 Winds remain gusty on the mountain, but they've lessened some and skies are very blue as an area of low pressure gathers strength well to our south. As expected, no storm late this week for us and not much one for anyone in the northeast. One has to travel to the unusual spot of Norfolk, VA to find fresh powder and this is not a place that often sees any. There's some light snow indicated for the mountains Thursday night with a dusting the most likely accumulation amount. During the day Thursday, we should see more sunshine early and an increase in clouds later in the day. Winds will remain gusty Thursday and diminish somewhat for Friday under at least some sunshine. 

 The polar jet and associated cold air is expected to relax considerably beginning this weekend, but don't be fooled, winter isn't done nor are outbreaks of some bitterly cold air. This weekend will be quiet however. Winds will continue to diminish on what looks to be an outstanding weather day on Saturday where sunshine will warm readings from near zero to 20 degrees. Clouds and some light snow are expected to return for Sunday and temperatures are expected to continue to moderate, reaching the high 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Relative to what we've seen for much of this month and the entire 2025 calendar year so far, the early part of next week looks pretty mild. In actual temperatures, it won't be too big of a deal. Some sunshine on Monday will boost temperatures up close to the freezing mark Monday and clouds Monday night are likely to keep temperatures pretty steady Monday night. The clouds are from a clipper system that is expected to drop a bit of snow over the mountains both during the overnight and on Tuesday. I don't like forecasting a lot of snow for MRG when the prevailing flow is southwesterly and unless the nature of this weak weather system changes, accumulations should be on the lighter side, though it won't be zero and we we shouldn't expect mixed precipitation or rain on the mountain. Temperatures are expected to remain within range of the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday and then the stars appear to be aligning for what could be our next significant event on the final day of the month. Much could go wrong with this potential storm as it appears to be a clipper that needs to catch some coastal dynamite or some close iteration of that. A surge of cold air can be expected for the first full weekend of March, whatever happens with Friday and away we go into March. 

The biggest feature driving the weather pattern for the early part of March is a beautiful looking ridge near the Alaskan/Yukon border. This feature will make things very interesting for the first 10 days of the month with the continued presence of arctic cold a virtual certainty and while ensembles hint at the presence of more storminess. This is the first time in a while we can go into March with cold weather feedbacks blowing in our direction. The persistent cold air has put a lot of  ice on the Great Lakes, might freeze Lake Champlain in the coming days and has placed an area of colder water in the coastal waters of the northeast. Barring a big overwhelming pattern shift, it should be a slow spring or at least that's what I would expect.

Dry forecast includes more sun this week with the continued presence of strong winds

 Hope everyone is enjoying the snow and staying at least somewhat protected from the wind. Though the wind speed will certainly peak Monday, expect it to be a factor throughout the week. Late February sunshine will certainly help and we appear to have more of that, especially in the Wednesday through Friday stretch. Clouds and flurries are expected to accompany another day of strong winds and bitterly cold temperatures on Tuesday. Readings aren't expected to stray too far from zero on the mountain and wind gusts over 30 on the upper mountain will make it feel like 30 below. Needless to say, prepare accordingly. We continue to expect a storm to gather strength across the southeast on Wednesday, but its attempt to become a major Miller-A nor'easter and move up the coast is likely to get thwarted as the pattern is expected to de-amplify a bit earlier than expected. The effect of having a strengthening storm to our south will help decrease the cloud cover late in the week as I mentioned and certainly  make the forecast drier. It's just the wind, which will continue to blow along with temperatures that rise to 10 on Wednesday, 15 or so Thursday and 20 degrees Friday. Morning readings are likely to get below zero slightly, though the continued presence of the wind will keep overnight readings higher than they might be otherwise.

Cloudiness is expectred to  return for the upcoming weekend and the trend of moving daytime temperatures up about 5 degrees each day will continue. Light snow is possible for Sunday thanks to an approaching clipper system and most importantly, we should finally see winds diminish somewhat though not entirely.

Winter is expected to get held in place across interior New England by the presence of the +PNA or ridge in western North America. This is a precarious hold however as all other forms of support appear to be, at least temporarily, vanishing. This will allow the polar jet to soften and retreat somewhat and temperatures across a widespread area of eastern North America will moderate substantially. Across Vermont, the door appears very open for more snowfall. The midday model update didn't provide for much agreement on the specifics for next week but storms were shown on each model at varying times so form of material snowfall appears more likely than not. Also, don't be fooled by the polar retreat next week, ensembles are beginning to align themselves toward a colder start to March, supported mainly by another building ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border. Alaska has had a very warm winter which has fueled the persistent nature of the cold weather this year and we now have support of feedback mechanisms that will provide continuous support for this going into March. When it rains it pours and when its cold it's likely to stay cold is actually a real thing. Weather can streak for a reason as chaotic as it can seem.

Still on target for 15-30", just expect some sleet Sunday afternoon before a snowy finish Sunday night into Monday

 Folks, this storm deserves one final update and I think we've been generally on target with our expectations and at this point can just expand on key details. Light snow is expected to develop right around sunset Saturday and continue at a steady pace throughout the night. Modest snowfall rates during the overnight hours will allow 5-8 inches of snow by daybreak Sunday and then we can anticipate a burst of heavy snow from right around when lifts begin to spin until midday. Winds will be cranking at the summit considering the intensity of the storm, blowing out of the east-northeast most of the day. The burst of morning heavy snow will get us to the 8-12 inch accumulation range and then we can expect a period of sleet for several hours during the afternoon. This will remain a cold storm with temperatures generally in the teens on the mountain, rising into the 20's when winds begin to shift Sunday evening. This wind shift will effectively end the sleet and bring another round of fluffier snowfall to MRG and our surrounding mountains. I feel good about the range we have. Most of the simulations aren't snowing a ton of snow on the back end, but the flow looks outstanding coming off Lake Champlain and the mountains should be on the receiving end of some healthy additional snowfall Sunday night into a cold and blustery Monday morning. It won't be a wet snow Sunday given where temperatures are, though it will still be a dense snow made denser by the period of sleet. The consistency of Sunday night snowfall will be fluffier, but high winds will result in lots of drifting on the trails. The high density of the sleet will actually help the drifting from getting too excessive. 15-30 still seems like a good range and its the kind that doesn't melt easy which will serve us well in another month.

Both Monday and Tuesday look to feature some outstanding skiing, just prepare for the elements that will include single digit temperatures and wind gusts up over 40 on the summits. Clouds and lighter snow showers are indicated to continue with sparse sunshine if at all. Winds are a bit lighter, temperatures are a bit less cold, and sunshine more prevalent on Wednesday when our next storm will be gathering in the south. I always love a good Miller-A event and the storm, Thursday Feb 20 appears to be a good one though not quite guaranteed. Coastal areas seem more favored to get the best of this storm as opposed to the interior with areas of Vermont getting a more gentle grazing though things tend to shift in the final days so stay tuned. Temperatures will remain chilly through Feb 23rd but will moderate. Friday should include some wind thanks to the departing storm followed by seasonable temperatures and perhaps some light snow for the last full weekend of February.

We defended well Thursday and now we await the strongest winter storm of the season with 15-30 expected, mostly Sunday

The Mad River Valley played some very clutch defense on Thursday. No, we weren't in the bullseye, but I was getting haunted by some of that high resolution data spitting out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. In the end, we scored a bit of snow, had a brief period of sleet and then back to a nice midday round of heavy snow and it skied beautifully. Forecast data has inched back in our direction for the Sunday, February 16th and this places us at the southern edge of what should be the best storm of the season. More on that in a bit.  

Decent flow of cold air is set to deposit another 1-3 inches of snow on our mountains Thursday evening setting us up for a wintry, partially bluebird Friday. Temps are mostly in the teens, though winds are expected and could gust to 40 mph at the summits and will certainly bring wind chills well below zero. Saturday's winds will be pretty quiet (enjoy that) and this will allow morning temperatures to be a bit below zero before rising into the teens Saturday afternoon under a thickening blanket of clouds. 

Here we go with our storm. Snow is expected to develop Saturday evening and intensify quickly. We won't need to worry about any complex phasing or coastal redevelopment as a already strong low pressure area is expected to advance into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and eventually evolve into a coastal bomb in the Gulf of Maine (980 mb). This trajectory is pretty solid for us, but the strong area of low pressure is predicted to be close, crossing our longitude somewhere in southern Vermont. This places us in an area where precipitation could mix with or change to sleet or a dry slot could get at us and prevent a 3 foot accumulation. Let's be honest, these are not bad problems to have. We are going to see intense snowfall regardless, especially Saturday night into early Sunday. Any sleet or storm lull would be most likely Sunday morning before more snowfall late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Going to keep the 15-30 inch snowfall expectation the same. A northward shift could put us us under that, a southward shift places us in the 2-3 feet category. No question this is the most intense winter storm so far this season. 

With any strong storm we can expect wind. This should start becoming a factor Sunday morning blowing from the east or east northeast for much of the ski day. During the evening, we should see winds shift and become westerly. Snow should continue into Sunday night and become lighter snow showers by the ski day Monday. Models are keeping the core of the coldest air to our west now as of some recent model updates and this is somewhat laughable as winds will ferocious both Monday and Tuesday and gusts up past 40 mph at the summit won't have anyone really missing the core of this cold air. Actual temps both Monday and Tuesday on the mountain will be in the single numbers. Winds will then relax a touch for Wednesday and temperatures will moderate some. This potential Miller-A type storm is still a possibility for someone and deserves watching with a possible impact on Thursday. Any storm would then clear for Friday when we can still expect some wind though temperatures will continue to slowly moderate. 

Ridging in western North America continues to be indicated for the last week of February giving us the +PNA structure I mentioned the other day. Most of the simulations continue to show moderating temperatures, but this remains an encouraging sign for what has been an amazing month so far.

Updates on our two storms over the next 5 days and a possible third to watch late next week

Tuesday's clouds are expected to linger into the overnight just enough to prevent an excessively cold Wednesday morning. We then are expecting another interval of February sunshine for Wednesday and not much wind atop the small accumulation of snow. We have eyes on two storms over the next 5 days and a potential third is out there late next week. Can't say I am entirely happy with the trends though it remains a pretty good forecast for northern Vermont overall. 

Storm number 1 appears to be a real head scratcher for me. Sure we are still competing with a pesky southeast ridge though arctic air has proven strong enough to overwhelm this feature and provide Washington, DC with several inches of snow which is highly unusual in this jet stream. The next wave of low pressure is expected to proceed through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday. There is a coastal transfer but given the building -AO, I am perplexed as to why it isn't stronger. The shift in storm track is not a good one for Vermont though in spite of this, we still should be on the receiving end of a decent front-end thump and some powder for skiers for the Thursday ski day. This is shown on one model while most of the others a smaller accumulation than I would think under the circumstances followed by a change to sleet Thursday morning and perhaps a small dose of the dreaded freezing rain during the midday period. I don't think the ice will be a significant problem and I am instead hoping for a trend showing a nice plastering of 6-10 inches of snow Thursday morning. It's not shown now unfortunately, just 3-6 inches with some sleet for the start of the ski day.

Light snow showers are expected as arctic makes a return to Vermont for Friday. Expect a cold, blustery and sunny day with temperatures in the teens. Clouds then return for Saturday and snow from storm 2 is expected to arrive sometime Saturday evening. Ensembles, in the aggregate, are still quite bullish on the Saturday event though this system has also shifted slightly north and yes, we would like this trend to stop as of now.  Fueled by robust upper air support, this storm will start like many of the great ones, with severe weather in the south. Low pressure will then take aim at New England for Sunday with a narrowing range of possible outcomes. The worst appears to be a trajectory right over northern Vermont and this would limit the snowfall to a small accumulation on the front end  and a healthier 5-10 on the back Sunday evening and night. A track over central or southern New England would yield a much better 15-30 inch like result as we would remain in the healthy cold conveyor of the storm for an extended period on Sunday into Monday. 

In the last update, I made mention of the President's Day holiday and that the air looked cold but not bitterly cold. More recent indications would suggest that a period of bitterly cold temperatures accompanied by high winds is now more likely centered around the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Right now Monday appears to be the windiest with readings in the vicinity of 10 and Tuesday appears to be the coldest with readings near zero and winds remaining formidable. I expect some good skiing those days, but prepare for the elements.The remainder of the week features gradually softening cold and a potential third storm brewing over the south. Ensembles have been moving this sucker around from run to run, but the setup appears very good for a Miller A type storm which means some sort of strong low pressure area moving up the coast (as opposed to many storms which come at us from the west). A long way to go on this  weather system. 

Looks like we get a bit of support from the PNA for the last week of February and when combined with the currently building negative AO, should provide us with another wintry week to finish a fantastic month. 

 

Vermont remains on the cold side of an intense temperature clash that means big storms over the next 7 days

Another fantastic weekend in the books and one has to go back quite a long way to remember so many winning weekends with the season still in the vicinity of the half way mark. There's much to discuss and when weather maps look like this, smaller details can get missed or glossed over so apologies for that in advance. 

A core of bitterly cold air will attempt to build across northern New England early this week. While the most intense part of this airmass is expected to remain to our northwest, it is nonetheless impressive to see sub-zero readings (Tuesday and Wednesday morning) with such a strong jet stream ridge across southeast North America. Such is the playing field this week and when you mix it all together, you can create all kinds of intriguing weather situations.  In the near term, its just really the chilly temperatures that will be the story. Some partial sunshine can be expected for Monday with temperatures in the teens. The polar jet is expected to bring a weak disturbance with just enough moisture to induce a bit of snowfall Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation will be building across the southeast in this period, but will be well south of Vermont.  The 1-4 inches of snow Tuesday precedes a fair weather though quite arctic high pressure center which will temporarily build across the state and and allow for clearing late in the day Tuesday and then a very sub-zero night when readings could reach -10 or -15. Following the cold and calm bluebird Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase and the fun begins. 

There are two big weather systems to contend with over the next week. The first on Thursday has an initial low that is now forecast to track a bit farther north than what was indicated a few days ago. Though I am not quite sure the track has been nailed down yet, I am confident in a critical energy transfer which should ensure snow for northern Vermont. The trajectory of the initial storm remains critical as it will determine whether we are supplied with the best conveyor of moisture and get a 10-20 inch storm or a 4-8 inch storm. The energy transfer is also key as a robust one should assist us with the moisture question and eliminating the problem of having an initial storm travel over the Adirondacks. The action is expected to begin Thursday morning and I am curious to see how models handle this over the next few days. This is the time of the year for energy transfers, not big wound up areas of low pressure in the eastern Great Lakes and an enhancement of the former will help us nail down one of the better snow events of the season. This system is also a fast moving one, riding that furious jet which is fueled by the clashing of jet stream features (the polar one and the southeast ridge). Drier air is expected to take over by Friday, which is expected to be blustery no matter what the storm does and chilly with temperatures in the teens and below zero wind chills. 

Is the storm expected for February 16th finally going to evolve into the big one ? Ensembles have been trending that way in their simulations over the past few days. This is a storm expected to get a massive amount of fuel from the Gulf that will likely include a violent day of severe weather in the south on Saturday, February 15th. Winter storms that orginate this way, with convective energy near the Gulf, often do become the historic nor'easters we remember years later and I am very confident of a very strong area of low pressure moving northeast toward us later in the weekend. The particulars beyond this will need to be sorted out, but most of the questions relate to the track and strength of the storm and not a phase or an energy transfer and this eliminates some moving parts. Still the storm could get pushed south or north limiting the snowfall. Yes, a big amplifier, even in this weather pattern could bring mixed precipitation though I still consider it less likely verses an all snow scenario. 

Still expecting the negative AO to dominate the back part of February. This has been the missing ingredient in teleconnection speak over the past month with the cold induced mostly by the EPO and PNA, both of which have been very favorable with the former often being underestimated and the latter responsible for the unfortunate situation in Southern California. A pattern dominated by a negative AO such as this one usually consists of a softer chill as opposed to bitterly cold temperatures and a constant threat for east coast storms. Enjoy folks and hope for big results this week ! 

Fantastic snow setup emerging with 4-8 inches of cold snow this weekend and a big one possible Feb 13-14

It's been both a snowy and cold week across interior New England. The first 7 days of February has in fact seen lower temperatures than what we saw in the recent cold month of January. And this has all happened while much of the southern United States has experienced temperatures more typical of mid-Spring. This raging north to south temperature battle is expected to continue for the next 10 days and will be responsible for a very interesting set of weather maps which, if even half of these verify, will result in a lot of snow for us.

Still expecting some snow showers to linger into early Saturday and then it appears to be a very seasonable February day. Sunshine should dim as the day progresses and winds are expected to eventually become relatively calm. Even though some snowfall is approaching, visibility should stay very good throughout the day. The track of the storm responsible for the snow Saturday night has shifted south just a touch and the heaviest snowfall has also shifted south. It's a quick moving storm and is still poised to deposit a modest and cold snowfall for MRG. Snow begins in the evening and ends as a light snowfall midday Sunday. Expect a 4-8 inches total for ski day Sunday with temperatures holding in the high teens. .

As mentioned, this is really a battle royale as arctic cold covering much of southern Canada next week attempts to undercut a rather formidable ridge positioned over southeast North America. There are multiple waves of low pressure expected to form along this highly baroclinic zone. Vermont can expect a dry and cold Monday and this is our best shot for sunshine. Clouds are then expected to dominate the rest of the week along with chilly temperatures. The first wave of low pressure is currently indicated to be a snow producer for the coast while delivering inland area a glancing blow. As the week progresses, there are growing indications that the next wave of low pressure could evolve into a sizeable winter storm that could become the biggest of the season for interior areas of New England. The timing of this appears to be in the Thursday to Friday (Feb 13-14), 18 years removed from what was the best winter storm of the century for Mad River Glen. We are just less than a week away from this so expect some fine tuning. 

The potential late week snow is not the last. Ensembles indicate another amplification late in the holiday weekend, centered around the President's Day holiday. To my eyes, this appears more like another snow or storm situation rather than an excessive cold type of amplification though more cold weather is expected in the wake of this persisting through at least February 19th.  What was initially an EPO driven winter weather situation will become a more -AO driven situation and this should really reduce the risk of a thaw even beyond February 20th. In the meantime, this certainly qualifies as one of the best snow setups I've seen in Vermont in some time.

 

3-6 inches beginning midday Thursday and heavier snow appears likelier for the weekend

The bluebird special got served cold on Wednesday. We got the wind to diminish a bit from Tuesday though it certainly wasn't zero and wind chills were well below zero with actual temperatures close to zero. Never said zero so much in one sentence. The cold weather is part of our mission to flatten the pattern and eliminate the threat of mild air and rainfall late this week. Mission accomplished ! Clouds and storminess approaching Wednesday night will be greeted with a very healthy supply of cold air. The storm simply isn't amplified enough to displace the cold weather entirely and its attempt to do so will result in a decent front-end thump snow beginning midday Thursday. The snow during the ski day Thursday will fall cold, with temperatures in the teens. Those temperatures are expected to rise slowly Thursday evening and are expected to be in the upper 20's Friday morning. By that point, we can expect 3-6 inches to have fallen half of which will fall during the ski day Thursday, half later in the evening. Still appears to be a short window for some freezing drizzle late Thursday night and some above freezing temperatures with the partial clearing we can expect for Friday, but that is the extent of the thaw which at one point appeared pretty ominous on some of the model simulations. Snow showers are actually expected to return to the mountains during the afternoon Friday and continue into Friday night depositing a small accumulation ahead of the ski day Saturday. 

This winter has already reached the "pretty darn good category" having extended the stretch of rain-free weather to almost 40 days at least on the mountain. The snow we've gotten has also added up, though it certainly hasn't come all at once or from any well organized storm system. One of the better looking weather systems of the season this weekend might make a bid at providing us with the heaviest snow of the season. Some questions remain as to the exact track and though the uncertainty range is actually narrow 3-4 days out, the eventual answer will determine where the heaviest snow will fall (central or southern New England). We know the system will be moving quickly, somewhat limiting the upside on snow potential as this will be another product of the ferocious north to south temperature battle happening as we discuss. The snow would begin Saturday night, end midday Sunday and I will give readers a preliminary range of 4" (if everything goes wrong) to 16" (if everything goes right). Should be a cold snow whatever the outcome with temperatures in the teens to low 20's throughout the upcoming weekend. 

Arctic cold, the core of which should remain well north and west of Vermont, is set to reestablish a presence in New England following the exit of Sunday's system. Interestingly this arctic air is undercutting a persistent ridge located over the southeast US. A weak clipper could bring some clouds and light snow to Vermont late Monday into Tuesday of next week, but I think most of the action and our attention will focus on a building area of storminess building closer to the temperature battle line in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The setup should bring a big area of mixed precipitation to the aforementioned area and the questions revolve around what will happen to this storm as it inches its way northward as the week progresses. Most of the simulations bring some additional snow to Vermont either in the middle or later part of the week and there's certainly the possibility of a major northeast snow event somewhere. 

Beyond the later part of next week, the EPO is expected to neutralize while the AO, which has been generally positive for the last 3 weeks is expected to turn negative (supportive of cold) and stay that way through the middle part of February. The critical piece of information to take from all this, at least as I see it, is that there is nothing to dislodge the core of cold that is currently situated over western Canada. It should remain in place for much of the month and be a major factor in the weather across New England, especially as the pattern allows some of that cold to push eastward after February 11.

Snow tonight, less mild late this week, more snow this weekend all part of a beautiful update !

 Lots of good stuff in this update and I can't help but continue to think of where we were last February in contrast to now. In 2024 we had a historic continental scouring of arctic air and I was trying to take solace in the fact that Vermont was only 10 degrees above normal as opposed to 25. Though the pattern has realigned with the core of the cold now focused on areas farther west, that core of cold represents some of the coldest air on the planet and large portions of Canada are set for a dramatically colder February than  the one a year ago. New England sits in one of the more interesting locations and will see cold to the north constantly doing better with pushes of milder air from the southeast. We saw that cold win out this past weekend and produce a -15 degree morning (coldest of the season in many locations) and though the forecast still includes threats of mixed precipitation and a little bit of rain, these interludes of milder air appear weaker, shorter and not an especially dominant part of the outlook for the next two weeks. 

When things are going well, you steal events like the one we can expect for Monday night. Temps will sneak above freezing in valley areas Monday. Hopefully it makes for a comfortable ski day for those heading out, but the best part is that it won't negatively impact precipitation when it arrives Monday night. Some years, it's hard to produce a decent anafrontal situation where the snowfall is induced by undercutting cold air and this appears to be one of those. It appears to be a very straightforward situation with some snow arriving after the ski day, falling steadily until about midnight and tapering to flurries thereafter. Temps will be in the upper 20's on the mountain as the snow is falling, closer to freezing in valley areas and by the time the ski day begins on Tuesday we should have 4-7 inches and by then it will be powdery with temperatures spending much of the day in the teens. 

Jet stream is set up to produce a nice period of sunshine from late Tuesday through Wednesday albeit with some very cold temperatures and in the case of Tuesday wind. Much like the weekend, the push of cold is more direct and should produce another round of sub-zero temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Wednesday's cold is the version I prefer however with excellent visibility, lots of blue skies and tolerable wind speeds that are expected to get pretty calm by late in the day. Clouds return by Thursday and temperatures will moderate and rise into the 20's. We've had our eye on Thursday's weather system for a while as one that might bring mixed precipitation, rain and/or a significant thaw. Models have all backed off on the latter two which is terrific news.  We can now expect a decent front-end thump of snow beginning in the midday hours that will change to some sort of mixture in the evening hours. Temperatures might exceed the freezing mark for several hour Thursday night, but not in a material way. I don't think the mixed precipitation will be all that significant either though it does remain a part of this equation. Colder air returns during the day Friday and temperatures fall back to sub-freezing levels accompanied by lighter snow showers. 

The 2nd in a series of storms this pattern is set to produce appears very promising for the back end of this weekend. It's a similar looking storm to the one set to impact us this Thursday only with a storm track that is further south. Because the system is still 5-6 days out, we should still anticipate some alterations but this certainly has the potential to produce significant snowfall accumulations for northern Vermont. 

Much of this update is colder themed and this covers the outlook beyond this upcoming weekend and into next week. The core of the coldest air remains well to our west and north yet we will continue to see this cold make southward intrusions into interior New England and produce days like this past Sunday or this upcoming Wednesday. I am more excited about the potential storminess however which continues to look a lot more active verses what we saw in a relatively dry, but cold January. Whatever kind of storm we get Sunday, should be out the door by early next week and will be followed by another potential storm in the middle to later part of the week after 2-3 drier days. The Euro ensemble turned much colder President's Day weekend and beyond though this is not entirely supported by the Canadian and American ensembles. Either way, its an outlook that's shifted from normal to above on a temperature range to normal to below. Just a really solid update for us Vermont loving skiers overall ! Enjoy !

Polar jet putting the squeeze on late Friday potential snow while pattern gonna force us to play some defense in early Feb

I was somewhat disappointed with the snowfall Wednesday but was more perturbed by the 20-degree bust on temperatures. The closest thing we have to a Santa Ana wind here is when we get one from the southwest, something that occurred yesterday for 2 hours, caused temperatures to spike all the way to 30-degrees before falling back toward expectations by later in the day. In spite of all that, Thursday turned into a nice semi bluebird special with some fresh powder on the mountain, excellent visibility and a chilly but tolerable wind. 

An area of low pressure in the central plains, has a healthy area of moisture associated with it on its eastward trek across the United States. This is a good looking setup at face value, yet the formidable polar jet is going to squeeze this sucker and ultimately prevent a decent area of snowfall to develop across interior New England. At least we'll manage to avoid the rain I suppose though its hard not to think of this as a wasted opportunity with so many of the right ingredients available to us. Friday's weather will thus consist of clouds and moderating temperatures through the middle of the afternoon followed by a period of light snow persisting late into Friday night. By Saturday morning, bluebird weather is back with a snowfall unlikely to exceed 1-3 inches. It's not an ideal situation for anyone with rain or mixed precipitation be the featured story as you head south and only light snow to the north. This storm, unfortunately seems very unlikely to evolve into a significant snow producer for hardly anyone. At least February arrives wintry and it follows a month of January that saw little to no rain, depending on your elevation. Saturday will be cold accompanied by a stiff northerly wind and temperatures in the single numbers accompanied by sunshine. Sunday should start sunny with sub-zero temps and finish with clouds and readings in the teens along with light winds. 

Lots of weather of all kinds for the first week of February and uncertainty remains as to the actual outcome. A dose of cold snow Sunday night should bring 2-6 inches of powder our way for the ski day Monday, a day that will eventually feature milder temperatures that get close to the freezing mark and will likely exceed it in valley areas thanks to that lovely southwest wind. Arctic air then reasserts itself for Tuesday returning the thermometer to the teens and providing us with a bit of sunshine. Then all the question marks come and we will see what kind of defense we can muster for the late-week period. Ensembles are putting us on defense a lot in the first half of February. Though arctic air is expected to remain close, its getting very difficult to imagine us getting to February 15th without a day of mixed precipitation, rain or a substantial 1-2 day thaw. As for late next week, it remains possible. The Euro continues to bring a storm system up through the St Lawrence Valley with ice and rain deep into northern Vermont on Thursday February 6th. This is a bias of the Euro model though and other simulations are still suggesting a different and better outcome so its probably best to let this play out a little before hitching our wagons to anything. 

This basic setup is expected to rinse and repeat a few times  through the middle of the month as I mentioned. It reminds me a little of the early February '22 setup which gave us some lousy weather and also the best storm of the season. The core of the coldest air across the entire globe is on our continent, just on the wrong side of it (Alberta, Saskatchewan, northern Rocky Mountains). This cold is shown to extend into eastern Canada which means if we can flatten this pattern out a bit and void the big amplifiers, we could see some bigger storms. Can't say the same for southern ski areas from Pennsylvania southward which can expect a lot of bad results and not many good ones in this setup. 

6-10 inches of beautiful cold snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and a little more is expected going into this weekend

Lots items on the weather map for the next two weeks. A lot of that is good and we have one big concern now that we can highlight and root hard to avoid. The short term outlook is fantastic, and a bit of snow has been added to the outlook going into what should be an awesome, wintry looking weekend. 

Our clipper system is on time and on target and we appear to be in a pretty good spot though not entirely bullseyed. Snow will begin around midnight Wednesday and fall through some very cold near 10 degree air. First tracks time should feature 3-5 fresh and powdery inches and though the snow won't get especially heavy, we should able to double that total by Wednesday evening as snow tapers to flurries. Arctic air has retreated across much of the country with the exception of interior New England which should see readings in the single numbers along with sunshine on Thursday. Winds appear gusty Thursday morning and then taper off substantially by the end of ski day. 

The weather is coming at us in a fast and furious way in this very energized jet stream. You don't like the weather one day, just sleep it off and something different gonna happen tomorrow and this is the way it will be for a bit. Our last day of January will feature more cloudiness and considerably milder temperatures. It appears cold enough to snow as precipitation arrives in the afternoon though I am a little c concern we see a mixed precipitation period if winds stay southwesterly. Fortunately, any of that mix is expected to become snow Friday evening as temperatures turn colder. This weather map appears very different than a few days ago and includes a much more organized storm system that is getting squeezed by advancing arctic air from the north and mild air from the south. It's moving quickly, limiting our snowfall potential though we can still expect a few inches ahead of a wintry and sunny weekend. Saturday is blustery and cold with temperatures in the teens and improving visibility. Sunday should feature early sun, and little wind followed by afternoon clouds and a little more wind. Temperatures should finish the weekend near 20

More fast moving and constantly changing weather for the beginning of next week. We can expect a bit of snow Sunday night and  Monday from what appears to be a benign storm followed by some colder air for the middle of the week. This is when things start to look dicey. Though we have some arctic air in place and could find our way to score some big overrunning snows, ensembles have dealt us a blow by showing a strong push of milder temperatures late next week that might prove a challenge to completely ward off. February is a time where northern Vermont can play some of its most effective defense and I've seen dicey situations turn amazing during this part of the season. Much depends on how amplified the jet stream becomes in western North America. A well organized deep amplification featuring deep snowfall across the southern Rocky Mountains can result in a thaw across Vermont in any part of the winter, but if the amplification proves to be a bit more broken up and less organized, the northward push of milder air in eastern North American can run out of gas. 

There are encouraging signs subsequent to the thorny questions revolving around Feb 7. One of the visible features in the simulated jet stream is a ridge across Alaska extending into the Arctic and polar air should never become too far removed and we can expect a return following whatever results we get at the end of next week.  The EPO continues to show a willingness to cooperate and has been an important ally all winter. The arctic air retreat this week and potential trouble late next week is more a result of PNA issues and loss of AO support. The latter appears to want to come around as we move deeper into February.

Teaser snow for early Tuesday and then 5-10 inches of cold snow Wednesday

The west to southwest wind is one that typically blows strong and warm even in northern Vermont. Fortunately, the prevailing airmass is an arctic in origin and temperatures on the mountain are the warmest version of sub-freezing and nothing more. We had round one of this Sunday with another round coming Monday. A cold front extending south from a clipper system will bring our first period of snow for the last week of January. It starts within a few hours of dawn Tuesday, ends within a few hours after dawn and should bring 2-4 inches of snow to the mountains.

The early Tuesday snow will mark the reemergence of colder air that is expected to remain in place through ar least February 1st. More on that in a bit. Until then there is a lot happening thanks to a fast flowing jet stream. A more dynamic looking clipper is expected to approach as advertised and we look to be in a decent spot for a round of cold snow during the ski day Wednesday. The snow should actually begin before the ski day but persist through much of it and accumulate 5-10 inches. Southern Vermont does appear to be slightly better than us for the heaviest snow though not by much. Regardless, I never complain about a good cold snow and this one will occur with temperatures near 10 degrees. Following the snow, we get a brief but direct shot of bitterly cold air. Be prepared for a ski day Thursday with some wind and temperatures near zero before temperatures moderate Friday,.

The pattern is certainly shifting as February arrives and should result in drastically different weather conditions for much of eastern North America. Keep in mind that for several regions in the southern US, the recent month of January has been the coldest in 15 years or more. Across interior New England, I am not so convinced that the changes, though less wintry in many areas, are less wintry for us. The EPO, after all brief positive interlude this week, is expected to tack its way back up not negative territory and help provide some resistance against any full scale continental scouring of cold, which we are not expecting to see. Instead we should expect to a major part of the action with storminess that should take good aim at us and even if the coldest air is focused on the western part of the continent. Lots of specifies to unpack so I won’t open the suitcase too much in this update. I couldn’t even if I tried though I can say that our next chance for significant weather is Sunday Feb 2 and there should be more thereafter. The risk of a material thaw is elevated in that first full week fo February though I don't consider it likely yet. 

MIdweek clipper emerges as biggest snow threat over the next 7 days

Every winter seems to have a different personality and this one is strikingly different than the last few. Last year had a mild and cloudy personality and this year could not be more different. This January could very well finish 8 degrees colder or more than January 2024 while featuring a doubling of bluebird days. So far the big storm has been elusive, but we've had a dry January and when I say that, I mean no rain. We saw some mixed precipitation with the wet snow on New Year's Day and its been snow and cold ever since with nickle and dime snows. This is the way the month is poised to finish and one has to be excited about some of the model simulations released late Friday for the mid-week clipper event. 

Sunshine through about early afternoon means most of the ski day is bluebird on Saturday. It's still chilly  with temperatures rising only to about 20 degrees, but winds remain light helping the comfort level. Sunday is cloudier, windier, temperatures will be up a few degrees and we should see a bit of light snow. The westerly winds  means the best accumulations are in the Stowe to Jay Peak corridor while MRG and Sugarbush get more of a 1-3 inch snow . Sunday's snowfall is the first in a series of clipper events that will break the recent dry stretch of dry weather caused by the recent intrusion of arctic cold. 

There's a lot happening next week and will be hard to digest it all in one reading. Arctic air is undergoing a partial retreat and a fast jet stream is sending a lot of disturbances our way. Monday will start tranquil and then the wind is expected to pick up, enough perhaps to bring temperatures up above the freezing mark in valley locations. Clouds will increase and we should see a bit of snow from a clipper centered well to our north. Things could change but the snow appears most likely to fall early Tuesday and be mechanically induced which means its mostly associated with the front expected to bring a resurgent area of arctic cold to the region. The Tuesday ski day should have some fresh snow but only a minimal 1-4 inch amount. 

Wednesday is much more interesting. This clipper appears significantly more energetic at jet stream level and may receive some Atlantic Ocean help when its impact is felt in northern Vermont. I want to be careful here because models have moved the best area of snow both north and south at varying times and I am not totally convinced a final answer has been reached. A 6-12 inch cold snow seems to be a very viable answer, most of which would fall during the ski day Wednesday. A direct shot of bitterly cold arctic air is likely to hit interior New England in the wake of whatever snow falls Wednesday. It will be temporary but will make Thursday windy with temperatures close to zero on the mountain. Friday should see a moderation in temperatures after a cold start and should feature less wind. 

A few model simulations are suggesting a threat of milder temperatures during the first week of February and potentially as early as Sunday Feb 2. I am going to remain skeptical of any multi-day torch across southern New England even if its advertised on long range models. I certainly expect dramatically milder weather across the Ohio Valley and deep south which has just experienced the coldest month in over a decade in some instances. The negative EPO which is again expected to reemerge in early February should help counteract the loss of AO support and make for what I think could be an interesting period of weather. Traditionally, the battle of mild air across the south and arctic air in southern Canada can make it stormy in New England and there are some indications on the longer range ensembles. We will see how it evolves.

Temps remain wintry but moderate for the weekend and a clipper train next week

Tuesday, January 21st featured a historic day of winter weather for potions of the deep south. The corridor from Houston to the Louisiana bayou (New Orleans included) and all the way to the Florida panhandle saw a significant snowfall. It wasn't just a wet snowfall on grass in some instances either, powder snow fell on Bourbon Street and temperature fell to the single numbers in places like Gulfport, MS and Lake Charles, LA. It's not been a year where storminess in the southern plains or Gulf Coast region comes northeast and amounts to much in New England. On the flip side, the clipper system has been revived and is alive and will be the story as far as new snowfall is concerned over the coming week to 10 days. I don't think this relationship is accidental either. With storminess in the mid latitude and southern portion of the jet stream more subdued, it allows clipper systems to be more robust and deliver more effectively for northern Vermont.

A succession of bluebird days has accompanied the cold weather in recent days and we might be able to squeeze a few hours of sun out of Thursday before clouds increase. This first clipper appears to be falling apart upon its arrival and the combination of clouds and flurries appears to be the likely end result Thursday night into Friday. After another sub-zero morning, temperatures are expected to moderate, climbing into the teens Thursday and Friday. Sunshine is expected to then return for Saturday before our first chance for some accumulating snow comes Sunday (it would be light). The bigger story for the weekend is the comfort level. Saturday morning will be cold but sunshine and minimal wind will make the 20 degree afternoon feel nice. Sunday will feature a bit more wind and some light snow but temperatures are expected to climb into the 20's. 

My hopes for a big storm early next week appear dashed. Again, not been a good year to bet on anything coming out of the southern stream and I am no longer doing that for the last Monday or Tuesday of January. That said, the clipper train is robust and should deliver on multiple occasions. The first dose of snow comes after a windy Monday. Thankfully, its just stale arctic air and this will prevent a snow scouring as temperatures only reach 30 under some clouds. The snow would fall Monday night into early Tuesday and would amount to a light accumulation. A better looking clipper system with heavier snowfall amounts is then possible during the middle of the week. Pretty much all the model simulations are indicating a decent swath of snow from this but disagreement remains as to where it happens. 

The longer range has us looking at the first full week of February and its the same type of theme to what was discussed a few days ago. We see some jet tightening in the Pacific but conditions then stabilize, perhaps even neutralize by the first of the month. The jet stream structure consists of a ridge over the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and this teleconnects more with cold across western North America. It does not force arctic air into deep retreat however and we are expecting a decent amount to linger over southern Canada, making occasional New England intrusions. It helps to have a few feedbacks working in our favor now with some ice now on the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay finally frozen. Big warmup expected for the southeast, but New England is in the of fire for storms if one does materialize.