Combustion has gotten the best of the first part of this week's forecast. In addition I promised an update on next week on Monday and failed to get to that. Obviously it is time to make amends with an update for the balance of the week into the weekend and an update on next week and March. I apologize for the delay (and the bust) but the good news and part of the reason for the delay was the recent purchase of a MacBook which will allow for more easier updates while traveling and in most cases skiing at MRG. More good news involves the forecast for next week which appeared threatening a few days ago, but the NAO is fighting very hard on our behalf and is turning what looked to be an ice to rain event to a very close call early next week with new snow now making up a good part of the possibility range.
An update to the busted forecast for this week
12-28 inches was the prognostication on Monday for the period Tuesday through Friday. It is clear that the prospects for the aforementioned appears in serious peril but new snowfall on Thursday and Thursday night will make up some of the ground. The culprit is a dynamically impressive clipper system which will vigorously carve a trough for the weekend in addition to the new snow. The storm will also bring new snow to Boston and the Cape, two areas which have seen amazingly little snowfall (less than 10 inches as of now for the year). As far as MRG is concerned we are on the northern edge of this rapidly digging system and although the dynamics appear impressive, moisture will be somewhat limited until this storm makes it to the coast. Snow will begin late in the day Thursday and continue through much of the night. It will be enough to re-freshen conditions but will amount to 5 inches or less (2-5 lets say) by first tracks time Friday. Models are hinting at some additional terrain enhanced snow late Friday into early Saturday but the unstable layer appears very shallow during this period based on forecast soundings making the prospects for significant snowfall in this time frame very low. If we do get some light snow Friday night and early Saturday, my guess is that it amounts to less than 2 inches but we will see. The rest of the weekend meanwhile will be dry. Sunshine should make an appearance at least late in the day Saturday although it will be chilly and blustery with high temperatures in the teens. Clouds will overspread the region again Sunday although it will not be as cold with temperatures climbing well into the 20's.
And finally for early next week...
A few days ago, ensemble data was indicating trouble, trouble and trouble for early next week. I reflected this concern in the last post on Monday although failed to expand on this as promised (again I apologize). The models themselves have been a lot more willy nilly and have generally failed at giving us any conclusive solution for early next week until today although there were plenty of runs showing ice and rain before a return to colder weather. In spite of the western trough which has materialized as expected, the forcing of the AO and NAO, both of which are negative, are making it extremely difficult for systems in the Rockies to take the nauseating St Lawrence Valley route to the maritimes. Instead, the systems try to cut north then re-form off the Atlantic coast thus choking off attempts to get warm air into the region. In the end what looked like trouble turns into more new snow which is amazing. We are not totally out of the woods here since the threat of mid-level warming still exists which would thus change any snow to sleet or ice for a time. The just released European however hammers home the point that much of the precipitation early next week is indeed snow which according to this solution would fall intermittently between Sunday night and early Wednesday. The system impacting the region has some moisture but is fairly disorganized (at least initially) so snowfall amounts are very hard to predict at this point. The moral of the story though is a positive one overall since we have a real good shot of escaping an ice or rain event early next week and instead getting at least a fresh few inches of new snow. Stay tuned for the final call on this one which should come no later than a few days hence.
And now to early March
Ensembles seem confident in the idea that the first few days in March sees a temporary weakening of the trough in the west while at the same time a not so insignificant trough amplifies across the eastern States. This is certainly some good news for late next week and into the first full weekend in March but the indicators are increasingly bearish going forward with all of the major teleconnection indicators moving to neutral or unfavorable by next weekend. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is the most significant since its recent negative index has been a positive force on our weather and is expected to switch in sign in the next 7-10 days. In addition to that is the trough which is expected to remain in place across western Canada which will conspire with the then positive AO and become a strong force for zonal flow across much of the country around the time of March 4th. This could very well mean a thaw by the first full weekend in March over a huge span of the nation. The silver lining is that the Ensembles, though they show a warm signal for a good part of the nation in this time frame, are not especially warm in New England where normal is the indication based strictly on the interpretation of jet stream anomalies. We will see how it evolves over time but I am certainly less than thrilled with how the first full week in March (4th-11th) appears. With that said extending this period of great ski weather to the first full weekend in March is certainly a bonus and the active weather pattern should continue until then which will mean the chance for another storm during or just prior to the weekend of the (3rd and 4th).
The Quick Summary
In spite of the lack of new snow over the last few days, some is expected late Thursday. Good news for early next week with a real possibility of escaping a possible ice storm and instead receiving new snow.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Monday, February 19, 2007
NAO turns this week to gold, next week more of a challenge
Some of the disconcerting changes occurring in the west are going to have a large impact the coverage of below normal temperatures in eastern North America which has managed to survive for several consecutive weeks. With the below normal cold relinquishing its grip, we need to stiffen our defenses and come up with a way protect our base if not add to it. As if on queue, the NAO driven by a strengthening ridge over Greenland will help the already negative AO to help turn what could have been a late February thaw into winter wonderland full of powder days and below freezing temperatures. Although I have never been able to alter the weather outcome, I dialed 911 for this one and it felt as if I got a response. As good as it will be this week, trouble looms for early next week and will need more last minute assistance if not a magic act to avoid what looks to be an ice/rain event.
Powder days - We just can't get enough
2005 produced a golden period of skiing beginning in mid-February and lasting through about mid-march but it has been awhile since I remember the stars aligning so favorably for president's week. MRG more or less doubled its seasonal snowfall in the two weeks leading up to the holiday and now we watch as the clipper train nears the station. Two clipper systems this week will ensure at least 2 powder days in the period beginning Tuesday and ending Friday and if were lucky we'll get three. Snow from the first clipper system will arrive early Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day albeit light. This first system is a weak one but is also a two part series with additional moisture arriving Tuesday night bringing more new snow by first tracks time on Wednesday. Snow from the clipper "hybrid" will be over with during the day Wednesday and any snow Wednesday night into early Thursday will be of the terrain induced variety. Then its the next clipper which will bring a burst of snow Thursday evening into early Friday. This system is more potent dynamically but less so from the standpoint of moisture. It will nonetheless snow, enough to produce another powder day for Friday and thus finishing off one heck of a week for us. Since it is a holiday week with many planning to ski lets have fun with some snowfall predictions. This endeavor requires the "subject to bust" disclaimer but I can limit the damage somewhat by giving a healthy range.
New Snowfall....
By first tracks Tuesday 1-3 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Wednesday 3-6 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Thursday 1-3 (flurries during the day)
By first tracks Friday 4-7 (an additional 1-3 during the day).
This adds up to 12-28 inches over a 4 day period. Thank you NAO !!!
The upcoming weekend looks especially dry in fact with temperatures running at or slightly below normal. Normal temperatures during the last weekend of February are in the middle 20's on the mountain and low temperatures are near 10. If ice or rain is our fate for early next week, it might be a good time to get out make those turns in the woods before we get that hard crust.
I'll have the full update on next week later today. Enjoy the powder.
Powder days - We just can't get enough
2005 produced a golden period of skiing beginning in mid-February and lasting through about mid-march but it has been awhile since I remember the stars aligning so favorably for president's week. MRG more or less doubled its seasonal snowfall in the two weeks leading up to the holiday and now we watch as the clipper train nears the station. Two clipper systems this week will ensure at least 2 powder days in the period beginning Tuesday and ending Friday and if were lucky we'll get three. Snow from the first clipper system will arrive early Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day albeit light. This first system is a weak one but is also a two part series with additional moisture arriving Tuesday night bringing more new snow by first tracks time on Wednesday. Snow from the clipper "hybrid" will be over with during the day Wednesday and any snow Wednesday night into early Thursday will be of the terrain induced variety. Then its the next clipper which will bring a burst of snow Thursday evening into early Friday. This system is more potent dynamically but less so from the standpoint of moisture. It will nonetheless snow, enough to produce another powder day for Friday and thus finishing off one heck of a week for us. Since it is a holiday week with many planning to ski lets have fun with some snowfall predictions. This endeavor requires the "subject to bust" disclaimer but I can limit the damage somewhat by giving a healthy range.
New Snowfall....
By first tracks Tuesday 1-3 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Wednesday 3-6 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Thursday 1-3 (flurries during the day)
By first tracks Friday 4-7 (an additional 1-3 during the day).
This adds up to 12-28 inches over a 4 day period. Thank you NAO !!!
The upcoming weekend looks especially dry in fact with temperatures running at or slightly below normal. Normal temperatures during the last weekend of February are in the middle 20's on the mountain and low temperatures are near 10. If ice or rain is our fate for early next week, it might be a good time to get out make those turns in the woods before we get that hard crust.
I'll have the full update on next week later today. Enjoy the powder.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
President's Holiday greatness and then a pattern shift
The public information statement from the National Weather Service in Burlington will have storm totals from around the region if anybody is interested. Many reports will come from valley locations, the higher terrain including ski country did even better.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/PNSBTV
We have now officially erased what was the equivalent of a 20 point deficit in a basketball game and hold a lead as we proceed to crunch time. It has taken 32 consecutive days of below freezing temperatures at MRG, several small storms and then one very big one to complete the deal but we now have established an above normal base leading into President's day holiday. Give mother nature a pat on the back but we don't want her to get complacent. After a glorious weekend with additional chances for fresh powder there are forecast challenges and shades of grey by the time we reach the last weekend in February.
Memorable Presidents Day holiday - very cold however for Monday
It will be cold and blustery through Friday with temperatures on the mountain struggling to make it past 10. Saturday should see some moderation as temps climb into the teen with less winds. Skiing in powder is a great way to stay warm over the next few days and terrain induced snow beginning late Thursday will add to the almost 70 inches of snow which has fallen at MRG in the last week. If i try to get too specific about what is going to fall and when I will surely confuse everyone and bust all at the same time. Lets just say that in the time frame beginning Thursday evening and ending Saturday morning we could see an additional 4-10 inches with the wide ride range accounting not only for uncertainty but also elevation on the mountain. At some point on Saturday a break in the snow is likely as clipper passes well to our south and acts to stablilize the lowest 8,000 feet of the atmosphere. Once the clipper clears the east coast Sunday it will allow another impulse to take aim on the region late Sunday which could bring a burst of terrain enhanced snow and another 5-10 inches by Monday morning. Although a powder day appears very likely on Monday, it will be windy and very cold with temperatures at least 10 below in the morning and struggling to make it above zero during the afternoon. So in summary, we have new snow predicted for lift opening on 3 out of the 4 days between Friday and Monday. Friday and Monday are cold and blustery, Saturday and Sunday are not as cold.
A new pattern to emerge
As next week progresses, the pattern across the entire U.S. will to begin to respond to the pronounced changes across western North America. The ridge over B.C. which triggered the intense cold across the Midwest and East Coast will be replaced by a large trough. Western ski resorts from California to Colorado will surely have a lot to brag about by the last weekend in February. We, on the other hand have to start playing defense because troughing in the west means there will be a real driving force to push warm air northward over the East and Midwest. Is there some good news here ? Yes. This pattern change is not being driven by the AO index which is expected to stay on the negative side of zero over the next two weeks. Ridging across Greenland will also help to counteract any warm-up. This is distinctly different to the situation in early December when every possible indicator was saying warm and snow-less for weeks on end. Additional help comes from the cold Great Lakes. All 5 have some ice on them and Lake Erie is now completely frozen. A broad area of snow cover also helps although the snow cover now is not all that unusual for this time of the year.
The forecast for next week - A significant temperature moderation
So here it is. Tuesday's temps will moderate significantly and there could be some warm advection light snow leading to a light accumulation. A much stronger southern branch storm will then progress eastward on Wednesday and Thursday and the concern here is that there is not much cold air left for it to work with. It may in the end turn out to be so cut off from the receding polar jet, that its impact on Vermont is minimal. If it does proceed northward and affects New England, more snow could be in the forecast but temperatures will be a lot closer to freezing. Overall I still think its a very good week to ski but we will start to notice the changes in the pattern by the middle of the week.
Rest of February
The very unsettled western U.S. is likely to send more very moist and potent systems eastward through the end of February. We are going to lean heavily on the NAO and specifically the ridging in Greenland to help prevent these systems from taking that abominable track up the St. Lawrence Valley. The positive angle here is that the region is likely to see another significant snowfall from a strong storm. The negative angle is that we are unlikely to win every battle and may have to deal with precipitation other than snow at some point before the month ends. With all that said, I am fairly optimistic and think we could make out okay over the next two week in spite of the gradual loss of our cold.
The Quick Summary
Snow, snow and more snow through Monday (President's day) . After a brutally cold Monday, a new pattern will assume control, one of less cold and frequent storms which will hopefully bring only snow.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/PNSBTV
We have now officially erased what was the equivalent of a 20 point deficit in a basketball game and hold a lead as we proceed to crunch time. It has taken 32 consecutive days of below freezing temperatures at MRG, several small storms and then one very big one to complete the deal but we now have established an above normal base leading into President's day holiday. Give mother nature a pat on the back but we don't want her to get complacent. After a glorious weekend with additional chances for fresh powder there are forecast challenges and shades of grey by the time we reach the last weekend in February.
Memorable Presidents Day holiday - very cold however for Monday
It will be cold and blustery through Friday with temperatures on the mountain struggling to make it past 10. Saturday should see some moderation as temps climb into the teen with less winds. Skiing in powder is a great way to stay warm over the next few days and terrain induced snow beginning late Thursday will add to the almost 70 inches of snow which has fallen at MRG in the last week. If i try to get too specific about what is going to fall and when I will surely confuse everyone and bust all at the same time. Lets just say that in the time frame beginning Thursday evening and ending Saturday morning we could see an additional 4-10 inches with the wide ride range accounting not only for uncertainty but also elevation on the mountain. At some point on Saturday a break in the snow is likely as clipper passes well to our south and acts to stablilize the lowest 8,000 feet of the atmosphere. Once the clipper clears the east coast Sunday it will allow another impulse to take aim on the region late Sunday which could bring a burst of terrain enhanced snow and another 5-10 inches by Monday morning. Although a powder day appears very likely on Monday, it will be windy and very cold with temperatures at least 10 below in the morning and struggling to make it above zero during the afternoon. So in summary, we have new snow predicted for lift opening on 3 out of the 4 days between Friday and Monday. Friday and Monday are cold and blustery, Saturday and Sunday are not as cold.
A new pattern to emerge
As next week progresses, the pattern across the entire U.S. will to begin to respond to the pronounced changes across western North America. The ridge over B.C. which triggered the intense cold across the Midwest and East Coast will be replaced by a large trough. Western ski resorts from California to Colorado will surely have a lot to brag about by the last weekend in February. We, on the other hand have to start playing defense because troughing in the west means there will be a real driving force to push warm air northward over the East and Midwest. Is there some good news here ? Yes. This pattern change is not being driven by the AO index which is expected to stay on the negative side of zero over the next two weeks. Ridging across Greenland will also help to counteract any warm-up. This is distinctly different to the situation in early December when every possible indicator was saying warm and snow-less for weeks on end. Additional help comes from the cold Great Lakes. All 5 have some ice on them and Lake Erie is now completely frozen. A broad area of snow cover also helps although the snow cover now is not all that unusual for this time of the year.
The forecast for next week - A significant temperature moderation
So here it is. Tuesday's temps will moderate significantly and there could be some warm advection light snow leading to a light accumulation. A much stronger southern branch storm will then progress eastward on Wednesday and Thursday and the concern here is that there is not much cold air left for it to work with. It may in the end turn out to be so cut off from the receding polar jet, that its impact on Vermont is minimal. If it does proceed northward and affects New England, more snow could be in the forecast but temperatures will be a lot closer to freezing. Overall I still think its a very good week to ski but we will start to notice the changes in the pattern by the middle of the week.
Rest of February
The very unsettled western U.S. is likely to send more very moist and potent systems eastward through the end of February. We are going to lean heavily on the NAO and specifically the ridging in Greenland to help prevent these systems from taking that abominable track up the St. Lawrence Valley. The positive angle here is that the region is likely to see another significant snowfall from a strong storm. The negative angle is that we are unlikely to win every battle and may have to deal with precipitation other than snow at some point before the month ends. With all that said, I am fairly optimistic and think we could make out okay over the next two week in spite of the gradual loss of our cold.
The Quick Summary
Snow, snow and more snow through Monday (President's day) . After a brutally cold Monday, a new pattern will assume control, one of less cold and frequent storms which will hopefully bring only snow.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
40-50 inches !! How's that for a sweet spot
Wind driven snow will continue through about 6 am. Looks like wind's have shifted west of due north so many locations on the spine of the Green Mountains will get see snow totals enhanced because of terrain. It will be difficult to accurately measure because of drifiting but totals at MRG could approach 4 feet before first tracks time Friday. Feel free to report some storm totals tomorrow morning where ever you may be.
Storm Update: The Valentines Day Blizzard of '07 !!!
The storm has commenced and is proceeding as expected as of this morning. Latest indications are that the low pressure center will track almost directly over Providence and Boston then proceed out over the water before again tracking inland again over Downeast Maine. Incredibly, the american model strengthens the storm to 974 mb as it spins into the Canadian Maritimes which in turn means a very tight pressure and temperature gradient across much of New England and thus the blizzard warnings. Temperatures across Vermont are still near zero in many areas as of this morning and will struggle to rise above 10 at MRG through the duration of the storm. In contrast, do not be surprised to see temperatures climb to 60, yes 60 degrees on Nantucket, Marthas Vineyard and parts of the eastern Cape this evening. Its hard to believe that can happen but such makes the incrediants for a big storm in Vermont.
The Sleet Concern
The big concern as far as the forecast goes is the sleet. The mid-layers of the troposphere have been warmer than expected in many areas while surface temperatures have actually been colder than expected. As a result sleet has fallen in many areas which were not expected to see much. Model cross sections tell the story and will certainly do so in this storm. The cross section for Concord, NH shows that a critical layer will rise above freezing later today (2 C) and this evening and precpitation is likely to go to sleet thus holding down total snowfall accumulations.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=nam&time=current&field=tempa
The cross section for Barre-Montpelier is considerably colder and does not show temperatures above freezing at any layer while precipitation falling on Wednesday and Wednesday night. That being said, temperatures are shown to climb to about -2 C (28 degrees) at about the 7,000 foot level this evening (temps at the surface will be much colder).
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=VT&stn=KMPV&model=nam&time=current&field=tempa
Considering that temperatures at these levels have been warmer verses the model integrations, it would not be surprising to see a few sleet pellets mix into the precipitation briefly this evening although I do not think it has a significant impact on accumulations. It will be interesting to watch the temperature at Mount Washington, a location which is positioned at the lower part of the temperature inversion. By Wednesday evening, temperatures at the observatory should be 15-20 degrees higher then what MRG's Stark Mountain will be reporting.
2-feet and probably more
In spite of all the above technicalities, the forecast is on track and with the snowfall already being reported at MRG, total accumulations are likely to exceed 2 feet on the mountain. The wind will be a significant isssue if your traveling or skiing later today, tonight and into tomorrow. Winds, although they are calm as of Wednesday morning, will gust to gale force later today on the summits and gust to hurricane force this evening and tonight. No hurricane wind gusts are expected during the day tomorrow but it will remain extremely windy so check madriverglen.com for details on any wind holds.
The Sleet Concern
The big concern as far as the forecast goes is the sleet. The mid-layers of the troposphere have been warmer than expected in many areas while surface temperatures have actually been colder than expected. As a result sleet has fallen in many areas which were not expected to see much. Model cross sections tell the story and will certainly do so in this storm. The cross section for Concord, NH shows that a critical layer will rise above freezing later today (2 C) and this evening and precpitation is likely to go to sleet thus holding down total snowfall accumulations.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=nam&time=current&field=tempa
The cross section for Barre-Montpelier is considerably colder and does not show temperatures above freezing at any layer while precipitation falling on Wednesday and Wednesday night. That being said, temperatures are shown to climb to about -2 C (28 degrees) at about the 7,000 foot level this evening (temps at the surface will be much colder).
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=VT&stn=KMPV&model=nam&time=current&field=tempa
Considering that temperatures at these levels have been warmer verses the model integrations, it would not be surprising to see a few sleet pellets mix into the precipitation briefly this evening although I do not think it has a significant impact on accumulations. It will be interesting to watch the temperature at Mount Washington, a location which is positioned at the lower part of the temperature inversion. By Wednesday evening, temperatures at the observatory should be 15-20 degrees higher then what MRG's Stark Mountain will be reporting.
2-feet and probably more
In spite of all the above technicalities, the forecast is on track and with the snowfall already being reported at MRG, total accumulations are likely to exceed 2 feet on the mountain. The wind will be a significant isssue if your traveling or skiing later today, tonight and into tomorrow. Winds, although they are calm as of Wednesday morning, will gust to gale force later today on the summits and gust to hurricane force this evening and tonight. No hurricane wind gusts are expected during the day tomorrow but it will remain extremely windy so check madriverglen.com for details on any wind holds.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Strongest winter storm in years to slam MRG !!!
Mother nature is in the process of engineering one of the great skiing comebacks of the last quarter century. At the risk of sounding like I am part of the marketing chorus, I can honestly say that this past Friday was one of the best days I have ever had on Mad River's "single" side. Although some of the snow certainly was wind driven into the trail, I was literally quad deep in powder on Catamount at a little after 9 AM. As much fun as I had on the slopes Friday, what a downer not to be in the mad river valley over the next week because it will spectacular. There were strong indications of a major event going back to early last week for the east coast but for a while, it looked as though any storm would simply add to a lengthy decadal chapter of big snow for coastal areas and a miss for areas deep in interior New England. As the college football analyst Lee Corso likes to say "Not so fast my friend !!!!". We are not going to miss this storm which will bring blizzard like conditions and a huge accumulation of snow to the entire state of Vermont.
A shift in the thinking
The shift in thinking with this storm stems to Sunday where model consensus dramatically moved the track of the storm northward and westward. Again, the American Model lagged behind the trend setting European model. Also recall the mention in the last post of the extended Canadian model which also tracked the storm farther north and west last week and was predicting a big hit for us. The Canadian Model is probably the least credible of the three major medium range models but that doesn't automatically make it wrong.
Wow !!! What a storm
It will be lengthy and time consuming to get bogged down in details regarding the manifestation of this storm and the forecast for MRG and much of Vermont is actually not that complicated: snow and lots of it ! A little perspective always makes for good reading however and it is worth mentioning that meteorologically speaking, this will be one of the strongest storms to impact the region in perhaps a decade. The term "bombing" is used to describe the rapid deepening (or strengthening) a nor'easter under goes as it achieves maturity usually somewhere along the New England coast. Well, they certainly called in the air force for this one because by the time this surface low reaches the Maine coast late Wednesday many of the off-shore buoys will be reporting sea level pressures of near or less than 980 mb. To put this in perspective, both Hurricane Bob and Hurricane Gloria crossed eastern Massachusetts with SLP's of about 965 mb and both did significant damage to coastal New England. Katrina made landfall east of New Orleans with an SLP of 920 certainly proving how devastating an extra 40 - 50 mb of strength can be.
A Forecast Please !!! - 20-40 inches in case you are sick of reading
The rate of deepening and eventual intensity of the low pressure center associated with the storm have a lot to say about snowfall amounts in Vermont. The track of the storm also dictates snowfall amounts to a large degree and for big snow across the northern Green Mountains, it is best that the storms track very close to the city of Boston which is exactly what this storm is going to do. So without further delay lets make a forecast. The snow in all its glory will probably not begin until after midnight Wednesday but could be falling at the rate of 2-3 inches per hour by the time lifts open Wednesday. Get their early if you want to truly enjoy it because we will see an big increase in winds during the afternoon which will produce blizzard-like conditions not only at the mountain but all across the state. At the summits, wind gusts will reach gale force during the afternoon and even hurricane force later Wednesday evening. The heavier snowfall will taper to snow showers early Thursday but winds will remain strong as it turns colder. Check madriverglen.com for updates on any wind hold situations. I find MRG to be particularly good about letting us know about any lift closures and I am sure the guys will come through again. As for total snowfall accumulations, I would forecast more but the storm will be moving along at a brisk pace and prevent any historic 2001-like snow. That being said Model QPF is spitting out anywhere from an 1.5 to over 2 inches of liquid which is something else I haven't seen in a while over Vermont in winter. This translates to over 2 feet of snow at the mountain but I am going to give a conservative range of 20-40 inches with a lot of drifting. It won't be the fluffy terrain induced or champlain induced powder. The synoptic snow typically has a higher density but it will be powder all the same and will make for some great skiing to be sure.
Holiday Weekend
Every weekend at MRG in the last month seems to surpass its predecessor and this weekend will be in keeping with the trend. Terrain induced snow will bring a few more inches to the northern Green's by early Friday and the intermittent snow showers will continue through early Saturday on brisk winds. After successive days (Thursday and Friday) with temperatures not much better than zero on the mountain, Saturday will be less extreme and less windy as an clipper digs into the Jet Stream and passes well to our south. I'll update our terrain induced snowfall prospects later this week for the weekend but it looks as though we could get at least a little new snow for lift opening both Friday and Saturday and possible Sunday as well.
Presidents Day Holiday Week
The first half of presidents day holiday week looks golden. The second in a series of clipper systems will impact the region early next week bringing the potential for some new snow although its difficult to say exactly when at this stage of the game. Temps will be very cold Monday (President's day) and will moderate as the week progresses although temperature moderation are never linear in New England and it would be smart to plan for at least one more very cold day outside of Monday. By next week, the very ridge which initiated the outbreak of cold over the western provinces of Canada will be replaced by a trough and some very unsettled weather which will extend through much of the western United States. This will be an adverse force in our weather as we head toward the last weekend of February and into early March but next week, the week in question is safe. The good news is that both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are shown to remain at least slightly negative and will hopefully act as a competing and favorable force against the adverse effects of any western trough by the end of the month.
The Quick Summary
Can't ask for much more going into a holiday week. Strongest storm in years will bring heavy snow and high winds to the mountain Wednesday and Thursday. Subsequent to this are additional chances for lighter amounts of snow this weekend and early next week.
A shift in the thinking
The shift in thinking with this storm stems to Sunday where model consensus dramatically moved the track of the storm northward and westward. Again, the American Model lagged behind the trend setting European model. Also recall the mention in the last post of the extended Canadian model which also tracked the storm farther north and west last week and was predicting a big hit for us. The Canadian Model is probably the least credible of the three major medium range models but that doesn't automatically make it wrong.
Wow !!! What a storm
It will be lengthy and time consuming to get bogged down in details regarding the manifestation of this storm and the forecast for MRG and much of Vermont is actually not that complicated: snow and lots of it ! A little perspective always makes for good reading however and it is worth mentioning that meteorologically speaking, this will be one of the strongest storms to impact the region in perhaps a decade. The term "bombing" is used to describe the rapid deepening (or strengthening) a nor'easter under goes as it achieves maturity usually somewhere along the New England coast. Well, they certainly called in the air force for this one because by the time this surface low reaches the Maine coast late Wednesday many of the off-shore buoys will be reporting sea level pressures of near or less than 980 mb. To put this in perspective, both Hurricane Bob and Hurricane Gloria crossed eastern Massachusetts with SLP's of about 965 mb and both did significant damage to coastal New England. Katrina made landfall east of New Orleans with an SLP of 920 certainly proving how devastating an extra 40 - 50 mb of strength can be.
A Forecast Please !!! - 20-40 inches in case you are sick of reading
The rate of deepening and eventual intensity of the low pressure center associated with the storm have a lot to say about snowfall amounts in Vermont. The track of the storm also dictates snowfall amounts to a large degree and for big snow across the northern Green Mountains, it is best that the storms track very close to the city of Boston which is exactly what this storm is going to do. So without further delay lets make a forecast. The snow in all its glory will probably not begin until after midnight Wednesday but could be falling at the rate of 2-3 inches per hour by the time lifts open Wednesday. Get their early if you want to truly enjoy it because we will see an big increase in winds during the afternoon which will produce blizzard-like conditions not only at the mountain but all across the state. At the summits, wind gusts will reach gale force during the afternoon and even hurricane force later Wednesday evening. The heavier snowfall will taper to snow showers early Thursday but winds will remain strong as it turns colder. Check madriverglen.com for updates on any wind hold situations. I find MRG to be particularly good about letting us know about any lift closures and I am sure the guys will come through again. As for total snowfall accumulations, I would forecast more but the storm will be moving along at a brisk pace and prevent any historic 2001-like snow. That being said Model QPF is spitting out anywhere from an 1.5 to over 2 inches of liquid which is something else I haven't seen in a while over Vermont in winter. This translates to over 2 feet of snow at the mountain but I am going to give a conservative range of 20-40 inches with a lot of drifting. It won't be the fluffy terrain induced or champlain induced powder. The synoptic snow typically has a higher density but it will be powder all the same and will make for some great skiing to be sure.
Holiday Weekend
Every weekend at MRG in the last month seems to surpass its predecessor and this weekend will be in keeping with the trend. Terrain induced snow will bring a few more inches to the northern Green's by early Friday and the intermittent snow showers will continue through early Saturday on brisk winds. After successive days (Thursday and Friday) with temperatures not much better than zero on the mountain, Saturday will be less extreme and less windy as an clipper digs into the Jet Stream and passes well to our south. I'll update our terrain induced snowfall prospects later this week for the weekend but it looks as though we could get at least a little new snow for lift opening both Friday and Saturday and possible Sunday as well.
Presidents Day Holiday Week
The first half of presidents day holiday week looks golden. The second in a series of clipper systems will impact the region early next week bringing the potential for some new snow although its difficult to say exactly when at this stage of the game. Temps will be very cold Monday (President's day) and will moderate as the week progresses although temperature moderation are never linear in New England and it would be smart to plan for at least one more very cold day outside of Monday. By next week, the very ridge which initiated the outbreak of cold over the western provinces of Canada will be replaced by a trough and some very unsettled weather which will extend through much of the western United States. This will be an adverse force in our weather as we head toward the last weekend of February and into early March but next week, the week in question is safe. The good news is that both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are shown to remain at least slightly negative and will hopefully act as a competing and favorable force against the adverse effects of any western trough by the end of the month.
The Quick Summary
Can't ask for much more going into a holiday week. Strongest storm in years will bring heavy snow and high winds to the mountain Wednesday and Thursday. Subsequent to this are additional chances for lighter amounts of snow this weekend and early next week.
Major storm set to strike northern/central Vermont
Biggest storm, on a synoptic scale, in at least 3 years is set to strike Mad River Glen and surrounding Vermont beginning late in the evening on Tuesday and lasting into Thursday. There will be both very heavy snow and high winds. The northern half of Vermont, the White Mountains of New Hampshire and much of Maine look to be in the storms sweet spot where total snowfall based on preliminary indications will be in the 18-36 inch range by late day Thursday. Wow !!! Coastal areas will see lots of sleet/ice and limited snowfall so don't be fooled if the forecast for Boston and New York downplays snowfall accumulations. Their loss is our gain !!
I'll have a full update later today but I have to be careful not to get stricken with storm attention deficit disorder here at work
I'll have a full update later today but I have to be careful not to get stricken with storm attention deficit disorder here at work
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