Frustrating because we need the snow, frustrating because this storm looks like a beast and frustrating because we seem to be locked into favorable pattern that is yielding dry results. It is similar in many respects to late February of 2003 which saw a cold but dry blocking pattern lock itself across the northeast sending weather systems well to our south. It is very agonizing but it is reality.
It would be a bit early to completely close the book on the weather system Wednesday. Like i mentioned in the last update it will get a huge injection of upper air support from the polar branch of the jet as it moves northeast out of the southern plains Tuesday. This normally would be a sweet situation for us here at MRG but "the block of death" continues to reign supreme on the weather pattern. I have completely underestimated its influence on northern New England so far and I want to be cautious as to not do it again. Normally blocks are good, but this one is centered a bit too far to the south and our jet energy has been forced well to our south and has been unable to turn northward even after some explosive interaction with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Models are now suggesting Wednesday's system may suffer a similar fate. It will intensify upon interacting with the Atlantic Ocean and slam the New York city area and southern New England with some big snow. It will struggle to push northward however and will likely track south of Long Island and south of Cape Cod before moving out into the open waters of the Atlantic. This is typically not a optimal track for big northern New England snowfall. The precipitation shield can extend well into Vermont but the heaviest snow stays well to the south of MRG. The track of this storm can still shift north and we need about 100 or so miles to get into some decent snowfall but the trend is not our friend at this point and thus the tone of this update has had a less than positive ring to it.
This "block of death" will nonetheless prevent any rain and will keep temperatures below the freezing mark for about 99 percent of the next two weeks taking us through the presidents day holiday. There are no weather systems on the horizon for next weekend at this time but there are indications of some instability and any weak disturbance could allow for a light accumulation of snow. The next organized system will probably have a chance at impacting the region some time around the 17th or 18th of the month. I know there are lots of folks who head to the hills this week so I will try to keep the updates coming but I myself have a busy week ahead so I will need some understanding.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
Our government might have a big national debt but they are getting all the snow
and the cleanup from all this snow will certainly not help balance any budget. This storm, although a monster, and one of the most powerful winter storms I have seen hit the Mid Atlantic, will not help us here at MRG and we will have to enjoy a rather quiet weekend of weather and little if any fresh powder to ski in. Interestingly the wall of snow verses no-snow will establish itself right across New York city making that forecast nightmarish for the weather forecasters down there. For Washington D.C. it will be another historic snow in a historic year for snow since the winter will likely go down as the snowiest ever.
MRG can expect chilly temperatures although certainly nothing intolerable. Lows will bottom out near zero and afternoon temperatures will approach the 20 degree mark with the help of some sunshine. Winds will start the weekend on the lighter side but increase by the time Sunday rolls around, a day which should feature wind chills below zero along with some limited sunshine.
The most promising looking weather system in what ? a while at least will be the talk of the town early next week. It is a weak southern branch system that will get a big boost from energy diving down from Canada. It will in the end help to re-enforce a vigorous east coast trough and in the end bring some arctic chill deep into the south again. Most importantly however, it does appear capable of bringing moisture deep into New England and if all goes well blow up along the New England coast and prove to be a major powder producer for us. This hypothetical event would arrive Wednesday and persist into Thursday and it will follow a very long stretch of unusually dry weather. The storm may get caught in the maritime trap thus allowing enough moisture to wrap around back into northern New England and enhance the terrain induced snow machine during the end of the week which sets the mountain up nicely for the holiday weekend.
The more general view of the weather map and weather pattern has block in the jet stream of incredible size and magnitude across eastern Canada and much of Greenland. This will again allow the NAO to enjoy a long trip down into the depths of negativity. Such a feature will greatly reduce our chances for rain but can still deflect would be weather systems to our south much like what the weekend "bomb" is doing. It is still a favorable pattern with snow coming from terrain induced events at the very least. Its approaching "prime-time" at MRG and things are looking very "up" as the NAO goes "down".
MRG can expect chilly temperatures although certainly nothing intolerable. Lows will bottom out near zero and afternoon temperatures will approach the 20 degree mark with the help of some sunshine. Winds will start the weekend on the lighter side but increase by the time Sunday rolls around, a day which should feature wind chills below zero along with some limited sunshine.
The most promising looking weather system in what ? a while at least will be the talk of the town early next week. It is a weak southern branch system that will get a big boost from energy diving down from Canada. It will in the end help to re-enforce a vigorous east coast trough and in the end bring some arctic chill deep into the south again. Most importantly however, it does appear capable of bringing moisture deep into New England and if all goes well blow up along the New England coast and prove to be a major powder producer for us. This hypothetical event would arrive Wednesday and persist into Thursday and it will follow a very long stretch of unusually dry weather. The storm may get caught in the maritime trap thus allowing enough moisture to wrap around back into northern New England and enhance the terrain induced snow machine during the end of the week which sets the mountain up nicely for the holiday weekend.
The more general view of the weather map and weather pattern has block in the jet stream of incredible size and magnitude across eastern Canada and much of Greenland. This will again allow the NAO to enjoy a long trip down into the depths of negativity. Such a feature will greatly reduce our chances for rain but can still deflect would be weather systems to our south much like what the weekend "bomb" is doing. It is still a favorable pattern with snow coming from terrain induced events at the very least. Its approaching "prime-time" at MRG and things are looking very "up" as the NAO goes "down".
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Another Noreaster in the making but will its moisture be out of our reach ?
As we near another anniversary of the great "Blizzard of '78" we might recall (I unfortunately do not) how incredibly stormy that weather pattern was. The storms were lined up one after the other and were burying the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. with some amazing snowfall totals. Another such pattern appears to be upon us, one of the stormiest I have seen since the inception of the SWCB for sure but we at MRG are begging to have something to show for it. As of now it has not been much. We have had a few nice storms, lots of glancing blows, some terrain induced fluff but we are certainly deserving of better particularly in a pattern such as this. As of now we continue to have a consensus of model data which is taking another mega-storm to our south. Such an event would be another huge hit for the I95 Megalopolis's but will be of little consequence in areas north of the Mass border. We have watched another cycle of model runs guide this ever-threatening looking noreaster just slightly farther to the north but we have a ways to go. Quite frankly I am sick of hearing all the newscasters suggest what a nuisance these storms are for the big cities. Bring them here where they belong and let the east coast get rain!
The problem fundamentally is that the dominating blocking feature in the jet stream is too far south and its expansive influence will have a drying effect on northern New England since jet energy has no choice but to travel well south and well under the blocking. It is such a powerful storm that the game is far from over. We are down by a few runs in the 7th inning but can the game is not out of reach yet.
In addition, the storminess will continue as I mentioned and the cold weather will be re-enforced in a big way across much of the eastern United States. Another storm during the early to middle part of next week will bring us another chance for some much needed powder before we turn sharply colder later in the week. Another update will come in a day or two but until put your snow shovel away for the season as a way of earning some karma.
The problem fundamentally is that the dominating blocking feature in the jet stream is too far south and its expansive influence will have a drying effect on northern New England since jet energy has no choice but to travel well south and well under the blocking. It is such a powerful storm that the game is far from over. We are down by a few runs in the 7th inning but can the game is not out of reach yet.
In addition, the storminess will continue as I mentioned and the cold weather will be re-enforced in a big way across much of the eastern United States. Another storm during the early to middle part of next week will bring us another chance for some much needed powder before we turn sharply colder later in the week. Another update will come in a day or two but until put your snow shovel away for the season as a way of earning some karma.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Focus shifts to next weekend...
since the forecast for the next few days will lack any big time powder. We will get flurries and light snow showers through Tuesday that will amount to a few inches or less (if such a category exists). We then have another shot at a few inches later Wednesday into Thursday as the remnants of the mid-week system that I had originally much higher hopes for graces us with a presence that we will hardly be worth noticing. It will remain wintry through the week with temperatures in the teens and 20's during the day and near to below zero at night.
The storm system arriving for the first full weekend of February will be worthy of much discussion and speculation. It most certainly has lots of potential both for us skiers and as a major east coast travel hazard. It has the potential to be a sequel to December 19th which if you recall was a major hit for many coastal cities but a major miss for the interior New England ski areas. This very juicy southern branch feature could also track farther northwest however and thus have a more Valentines Day 2007 appearance. Model data is suggesting more in the way of the former but I am optimistic that the forecast can change in our favor. The position of the upper ridge which has at times this month has been too far east and acted to deflect a would be powder event is further west this time and will do its part to produce a formidable east coast trough. Such a set-up can allow the east coast system in question to become much stronger and a stronger system will track farther north and farther west since such a process negatively tilts the the trough axis. You should expect this event to be downplayed across the north country until some hard evidence indicates the possibility for some big snow. As of now we have very little evidence suggesting such and another update in a few days should shed some more light on the "weather" or the "not" (pun intended).
The longer range update has a stormier and more favorable look to it as of this morning. We can thank the NAO for all of this. We can also thank the continued presence of El Nino although it has weakened somewhat from its peak of 1.9 C above the seasonal norm. The NAO will be fueled by the block discussed in the last update and th weather will be fueled by the southern branch which appears more and more active in each update of the ensembles. It will be a continued challenge to get moisture up past 42 north, especially since so much jet energy will dive under the blocking and out over the open Atlantic thus keeping the storm track farther south. The simple idea that a more continuous string of storms can track from one side of the country to the other will at least provide some potential and it all starts with that.
The storm system arriving for the first full weekend of February will be worthy of much discussion and speculation. It most certainly has lots of potential both for us skiers and as a major east coast travel hazard. It has the potential to be a sequel to December 19th which if you recall was a major hit for many coastal cities but a major miss for the interior New England ski areas. This very juicy southern branch feature could also track farther northwest however and thus have a more Valentines Day 2007 appearance. Model data is suggesting more in the way of the former but I am optimistic that the forecast can change in our favor. The position of the upper ridge which has at times this month has been too far east and acted to deflect a would be powder event is further west this time and will do its part to produce a formidable east coast trough. Such a set-up can allow the east coast system in question to become much stronger and a stronger system will track farther north and farther west since such a process negatively tilts the the trough axis. You should expect this event to be downplayed across the north country until some hard evidence indicates the possibility for some big snow. As of now we have very little evidence suggesting such and another update in a few days should shed some more light on the "weather" or the "not" (pun intended).
The longer range update has a stormier and more favorable look to it as of this morning. We can thank the NAO for all of this. We can also thank the continued presence of El Nino although it has weakened somewhat from its peak of 1.9 C above the seasonal norm. The NAO will be fueled by the block discussed in the last update and th weather will be fueled by the southern branch which appears more and more active in each update of the ensembles. It will be a continued challenge to get moisture up past 42 north, especially since so much jet energy will dive under the blocking and out over the open Atlantic thus keeping the storm track farther south. The simple idea that a more continuous string of storms can track from one side of the country to the other will at least provide some potential and it all starts with that.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Cold but drier forecast for the weekend and upcoming week
We brought winter back in a big way as temperatures plummet to well below zero across much of Vermont, particularly the high country. The forecast for the upcoming week has also trended colder but also appears to be on the drier side which is unfortunate since us Mad River Glen enthusiasts hate wasting cold weather.
The forecast for the weekend is almost entirely unchanged. Saturday will be dry and should feature a good amount of sun to go along with the bone-chilling cold. Winds will remain at a tolerable level so a run through the legendary MRG bumps should generate enough bodily warmth for a cold ride up the single. On Sunday we should see more in the way of clouds as a very pathetic looking clipper system spreads some light snow across the region mainly in the afternoon. I think it is reasonable to expect a fluffy 1-3 inches by Monday morning and this will be followed by more wind and more cold Monday night into Tuesday. The disappointing aspect of today's forecast is the system during the middle of the week which appears to fall apart upon its approach. It didn't have much in the way of moisture to begin with but appeared capable of "fluffing-up" the mountain and this appears somewhat less likely at this point but its still early to count it out completely.
The system next weekend will not have any problems with ascertaining moisture. It will be a product of the southern branch and a re-enforcing shot of cold later in the week should keep enough cold around for an all snow event across the interior northeast. The remaining issue will be the track of this storm which could head out into the ocean as some models already indicate. There is still some good potential here though and the SCWB will stay on top of any changes good or bad.
The headline in our last update indicated that rain should stay away for a while and no reason to stray from that prognostication as of now. Temperatures should moderate substantially beginning next weekend but this mostly stems from the building of a massive block in the jet stream which will extend from the Hudson Bay of Canada east through the Davis Straits and encompassing much of Greenland. This is a positive development since it will be the fuel for another super negative NAO. The slight negative is that the block will extend southward and may be a force for some rather tranquil weather. Weather which should be free of frigid arctic air (the block may actually prevent that) but also free of big storms since most of them could track to our south. It should however mean that the rain will be far away and in my mind the rain can never be far enough away. Enjoy the weekend
The forecast for the weekend is almost entirely unchanged. Saturday will be dry and should feature a good amount of sun to go along with the bone-chilling cold. Winds will remain at a tolerable level so a run through the legendary MRG bumps should generate enough bodily warmth for a cold ride up the single. On Sunday we should see more in the way of clouds as a very pathetic looking clipper system spreads some light snow across the region mainly in the afternoon. I think it is reasonable to expect a fluffy 1-3 inches by Monday morning and this will be followed by more wind and more cold Monday night into Tuesday. The disappointing aspect of today's forecast is the system during the middle of the week which appears to fall apart upon its approach. It didn't have much in the way of moisture to begin with but appeared capable of "fluffing-up" the mountain and this appears somewhat less likely at this point but its still early to count it out completely.
The system next weekend will not have any problems with ascertaining moisture. It will be a product of the southern branch and a re-enforcing shot of cold later in the week should keep enough cold around for an all snow event across the interior northeast. The remaining issue will be the track of this storm which could head out into the ocean as some models already indicate. There is still some good potential here though and the SCWB will stay on top of any changes good or bad.
The headline in our last update indicated that rain should stay away for a while and no reason to stray from that prognostication as of now. Temperatures should moderate substantially beginning next weekend but this mostly stems from the building of a massive block in the jet stream which will extend from the Hudson Bay of Canada east through the Davis Straits and encompassing much of Greenland. This is a positive development since it will be the fuel for another super negative NAO. The slight negative is that the block will extend southward and may be a force for some rather tranquil weather. Weather which should be free of frigid arctic air (the block may actually prevent that) but also free of big storms since most of them could track to our south. It should however mean that the rain will be far away and in my mind the rain can never be far enough away. Enjoy the weekend
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Burst of snow late Thursday and a wintry next week
Although still lacking in moisture, short term model guidance has indicated that Thursday's clipper is much more intense dynamically. This system will spread clouds over MRG Thursday and eventually snow Thursday afternoon and into the evening. The clipper is associated with a sharp arctic boundary which will pass overnight Thursday but until it does it will snow and it should do so modestly for a short period late Thursday. Accumulations will range from 3-7 inches and be somewhat sensitive to elevation. This turns Friday into a powder day but be ready for cold of the more intense variety. MRG has managed to dodge some of the most intense cold of the season so far but Friday's chill should rival the coldest of the season with temperatures hovering around zero and wind chills well below that. The clipper system is our event for the weekend and should make Friday the most powdery. We had been watching a system down south but we will have to, cautiously mind you, assume this system tracks well to our south. The result is a mostly dry and very cold weekend with temperatures below zero both mornings and high temperatures near 10. Clouds and snow flurries will return Sunday but should not amount to much in terms of accumulation.
The cold blast will continue into early next week and actually be re-enforced somewhat early Monday. This means maybe some minimal amounts of snow Sunday night but mostly cold weather and temperatures well below zero at night. I had mentioned the that the storm track will at least temporarily shift north next week and this is indeed the case. It will put the region more in the range of some of the better "frontogenetic" forcing and when the next system exits the Rockies early next week it will take more direct aim at MRG. It is uncertain how much moisture will be available for this feature but it will no doubt be plenty cold and the possibility for a modest 4-8 inch dump around the Wednesday time frame of next week is reasonable. The passage of this system will ultimately allow temperatures to begin to moderate late next week and by the following weekend the arctic air will grow stale and lose its grip on the region.
There will be another much stronger system toward next weekend to watch. It will be a product of the southern branch once again and will arrive as the cold air weakens. Because the polar jet will deactivate so rapidly we will need the southern branch to do all the magic with this system and will also need to hope enough cold air can linger and we will need a relatively favorable tracks. Its better than a long shot that we receive a snowy impact from this system but it is a long way out and a lot can happen with so many uncertain variables.
Ensembles are showing a very strong signal for blocking but this block will be centered from the southern tip of Greenland west to the entire eastern half of Canada. The block also will not get support from the PNA which will mean that arctic air will make a big retreat. Weather systems after the first week in February will be controlled and steered by the southern branch and it might prove difficult to get weather up into New England. I think the threat of rain is minimal but the weather could dry out substantially after February 8th and a long period of tranquillity could prevail across the region.
The cold blast will continue into early next week and actually be re-enforced somewhat early Monday. This means maybe some minimal amounts of snow Sunday night but mostly cold weather and temperatures well below zero at night. I had mentioned the that the storm track will at least temporarily shift north next week and this is indeed the case. It will put the region more in the range of some of the better "frontogenetic" forcing and when the next system exits the Rockies early next week it will take more direct aim at MRG. It is uncertain how much moisture will be available for this feature but it will no doubt be plenty cold and the possibility for a modest 4-8 inch dump around the Wednesday time frame of next week is reasonable. The passage of this system will ultimately allow temperatures to begin to moderate late next week and by the following weekend the arctic air will grow stale and lose its grip on the region.
There will be another much stronger system toward next weekend to watch. It will be a product of the southern branch once again and will arrive as the cold air weakens. Because the polar jet will deactivate so rapidly we will need the southern branch to do all the magic with this system and will also need to hope enough cold air can linger and we will need a relatively favorable tracks. Its better than a long shot that we receive a snowy impact from this system but it is a long way out and a lot can happen with so many uncertain variables.
Ensembles are showing a very strong signal for blocking but this block will be centered from the southern tip of Greenland west to the entire eastern half of Canada. The block also will not get support from the PNA which will mean that arctic air will make a big retreat. Weather systems after the first week in February will be controlled and steered by the southern branch and it might prove difficult to get weather up into New England. I think the threat of rain is minimal but the weather could dry out substantially after February 8th and a long period of tranquillity could prevail across the region.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Rain is done at MRG and likely for a while !!!
Halleluyah !! This one hurt like a punch to the ribs and if you ever wonder why posts don't come as frequently on the SCWB you can blame the rain. I hate even thinking about it so I don't post. The snow is on its way and should fall in the form of occasional snow showers beginning Tuesday and persisting all the way until Thursday. I had hoped there would be a period of favorable low level forcing to go along with some general instability but we can't have it all I suppose. Over the next 72 hours I would not be surprised to see 5-10 new inches of fluff most of which should fall between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. The snow should taper off and temperatures will turn much colder late in the day Thursday and we will then be firmly enveloped by some good old fashion New England January chill.
The headline hopefully does not turn into a lie. The 1-2 punch combination of the negative Arctic Oscillation and the weakly negative North Atlantic Oscillation should ensure a gradual improvement in powder prospects as we move into our favorite period at Mad River Glen. The improvements will come fast and furious if we were to get some love from some southern branch energy on Saturday. This system will be associated with the sharp cold front which will have already passed MRG as of late Thursday. A wave will form along this front across the southeast and evolve into a significant area of low pressure as it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean late on Friday. I can probably stop the narrative here and the reader can simply guess the situation - Model data shows this system tracking well to our south and we will have to hope for another 9th inning northward kick. On more than a few occasions this year we have gotten some late game heroics and it will likely take at least another post before we can either right this storm off completely or excitedly welcome some much needed snow. It will otherwise be a cold weekend with temperatures in the teens in the afternoon and below zero readings at night.
The early part of February, or at least the very early part should consist of some new snow from a clipper system (Monday or Tuesday) followed by re-enforcing shot of chill. I then have high hopes that some southern branch energy goes wild late in the week and we can get a significant dump. Interestingly there will be some forces in the jet stream that should aim the storm track a bit farther north as we progress into February. Meanwhile the storminess in the west will continue but shift north as well and this is very much needed as the Winter Games approach. I vaguely remember the '88 games in Calgary, a place I once called home got hit with the spring thaw of a lifetime as temperatures soared to 60 degrees (or beyond 15 C for you Canadians) as they hosted the games. The Olympic curse was broken in Salt Lake City in '02 as they were the only place to record above normal snowfall that winter causing some of us crazier weather geeks to cry "Government Conspiracy !!!". All that aside, I am looking forward to another round of Winter Olympics and would certainly like the Americans to do some representing in hockey though I am skeptical.
The headline hopefully does not turn into a lie. The 1-2 punch combination of the negative Arctic Oscillation and the weakly negative North Atlantic Oscillation should ensure a gradual improvement in powder prospects as we move into our favorite period at Mad River Glen. The improvements will come fast and furious if we were to get some love from some southern branch energy on Saturday. This system will be associated with the sharp cold front which will have already passed MRG as of late Thursday. A wave will form along this front across the southeast and evolve into a significant area of low pressure as it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean late on Friday. I can probably stop the narrative here and the reader can simply guess the situation - Model data shows this system tracking well to our south and we will have to hope for another 9th inning northward kick. On more than a few occasions this year we have gotten some late game heroics and it will likely take at least another post before we can either right this storm off completely or excitedly welcome some much needed snow. It will otherwise be a cold weekend with temperatures in the teens in the afternoon and below zero readings at night.
The early part of February, or at least the very early part should consist of some new snow from a clipper system (Monday or Tuesday) followed by re-enforcing shot of chill. I then have high hopes that some southern branch energy goes wild late in the week and we can get a significant dump. Interestingly there will be some forces in the jet stream that should aim the storm track a bit farther north as we progress into February. Meanwhile the storminess in the west will continue but shift north as well and this is very much needed as the Winter Games approach. I vaguely remember the '88 games in Calgary, a place I once called home got hit with the spring thaw of a lifetime as temperatures soared to 60 degrees (or beyond 15 C for you Canadians) as they hosted the games. The Olympic curse was broken in Salt Lake City in '02 as they were the only place to record above normal snowfall that winter causing some of us crazier weather geeks to cry "Government Conspiracy !!!". All that aside, I am looking forward to another round of Winter Olympics and would certainly like the Americans to do some representing in hockey though I am skeptical.
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