Thursday, February 25, 2010
The warm air has arrived
allowing the rain to fall at the base of Mad River Glen while the snow is falling in center city Philadelphia. The world is truly upside down at the moment and as it tries to right itself over the next 24 hours we are hoping this results in more powder. As it stands now, enough warmth will prevail across the region to keep things wet (snow at the summits, rain at the base) through Thursday night before colder weather arrives, straight out of Philadelphia. Atmospheric profiles tomorrow and Saturday reveal a moist and unstable lower troposphere and this level of instability extends up around 12,000 feet which is very conducive for some terrain enhanced snow both Friday and Saturday once we get it cold enough again. These events are very tough to predict accurately but I would expect snow showers to intensify Friday, and continue into Friday night and Saturday. I am not sure if we can turn Friday around into a powder day but I expect Saturday and perhaps Sunday to be winners. A few inches each day between Friday and Saturday will result in an additional foot although the bust potential is there in either direction.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
1-foot down hopefully a few more to come
and another one is imminent Wednesday as moisture continues to stream up from the open waters of the Atlantic. Snow which is falling with some serious intensity as of Wednesday morning will continue throughout the ski day. All this snow results from the so called "appetizer" or a relatively weak area of low pressure and its energy is expected to get swallowed by a much stronger system Thursday. Sometimes however the "appetizer" is the best part of a meal and the snow Wednesday combined with the relative lack of strong winds could make it the best powder day of the week.
I am happy to report that the alterations to the forecast are relatively small. The calm between the two storms is moved to Wednesday night as opposed to Wednesday during the day. Snow will then re-commence Thursday morning and then become heavy during the morning hours. The low level push of warm air that is expected to rotate northwestward from the open waters of the Atlantic all the way to the mountains of Vermont is still expected to arrive during the day. The advantage of elevation will prove very critical and warmth at the surface should be shallow enough to minimize the impact of rain above 1500 feet. In fact, the consensus of data suggests very little rain at these elevations even though low lying ares are likely to get wet Thursday evening and Thursday night. Winds will increase and become pretty ferocious later Thursday and will generally come from the east.
Model data suggests that drier air will work to lessen the intensity of precipitation Thursday night. As this is happening temperatures will begin to cool a few degrees and allow any precipitation which is falling (even in low-lying areas) to turn back to snow. The colder weather will move right up the Connecticut River Valley, certainly an unlikely source but its taking the scenic route by moving into the Mid-Atlantic states first before moving north into interior New England. By this time, the storm, which will have already "bombed" and done a loop around the New York City area, will gradually weaken. Areas of moisture will remain however and should continue impacting MRG even after a Thursday night or early Friday lull. Snow will continue at either a light to moderate intensity through much fo the later part of the day Friday into Friday night and on Saturday.
An updated breakdown of accumulations are as follows.
Wednesday: An additional foot of snow on top of the foot which has already fallen
Wednesday night: Light snow and a minimal accumulation
Thursday: Heavy snow during the morning. Snow will turn wet and may go to rain in some low lying area but should continue across much of MRG. 10-15 inches is possible.
Friday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow with 3-5 more inches
Saturday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow and another 4-8 inches
Sunday: More snow and more accumulation
I am happy to report that the alterations to the forecast are relatively small. The calm between the two storms is moved to Wednesday night as opposed to Wednesday during the day. Snow will then re-commence Thursday morning and then become heavy during the morning hours. The low level push of warm air that is expected to rotate northwestward from the open waters of the Atlantic all the way to the mountains of Vermont is still expected to arrive during the day. The advantage of elevation will prove very critical and warmth at the surface should be shallow enough to minimize the impact of rain above 1500 feet. In fact, the consensus of data suggests very little rain at these elevations even though low lying ares are likely to get wet Thursday evening and Thursday night. Winds will increase and become pretty ferocious later Thursday and will generally come from the east.
Model data suggests that drier air will work to lessen the intensity of precipitation Thursday night. As this is happening temperatures will begin to cool a few degrees and allow any precipitation which is falling (even in low-lying areas) to turn back to snow. The colder weather will move right up the Connecticut River Valley, certainly an unlikely source but its taking the scenic route by moving into the Mid-Atlantic states first before moving north into interior New England. By this time, the storm, which will have already "bombed" and done a loop around the New York City area, will gradually weaken. Areas of moisture will remain however and should continue impacting MRG even after a Thursday night or early Friday lull. Snow will continue at either a light to moderate intensity through much fo the later part of the day Friday into Friday night and on Saturday.
An updated breakdown of accumulations are as follows.
Wednesday: An additional foot of snow on top of the foot which has already fallen
Wednesday night: Light snow and a minimal accumulation
Thursday: Heavy snow during the morning. Snow will turn wet and may go to rain in some low lying area but should continue across much of MRG. 10-15 inches is possible.
Friday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow with 3-5 more inches
Saturday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow and another 4-8 inches
Sunday: More snow and more accumulation
Monday, February 22, 2010
Mammoth storm to bomb and stall across New England
and with it will be a wild few days of weather across not only the Green and White Mountains but all of New England, New York State and southward to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. It is a complicated weather map to say the least but will largely be dictated by an amplifying upper trough which will evolve into a "closed low" which will position itself near Martha's Vineyard by Friday.
As of early Tuesday, snow has already made it to much of New York state but this moisture is associated with a decaying low pressure area in the eastern Great Lakes and much of it will likely fail in its attempt to reach the Vermont high country. Meanwhile a new area of low pressure will gather strength over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and move north over eastern New England. This surface feature will swallow much of the energy from the eastern Great Lakes low and push moderate to heavy snow to MRG Tuesday evening. The snow will accumulate significantly and should provide the mountain with its best powder day in weeks with somewhere in the vicinity of a foot by first tracks time Wednesday.
This initial burst of snow however results from a storm which is not even likely to deepen beyond 1000 mb as it tracks through eastern New England; in fact the storm will begin to lose its potency as another far more dynamic system begins to take shape just behind it over the Atlantic. This new storm will deepen very rapidly thanks largely to the full backing of upper level support approaching from the west. It will also have the necessary baraclinic ingredients of much colder weather approaching from the west mixing with the relative moist warmth of the Atlantic. The result will be an all out explosion near the New England coast and a low pressure area which may eventually deepen to near 980 mb (Valentines Day '07 levels). This second and more dynamic system will give us a little head fake in its initial north-northeast movement but will ultimately turn north and then retrograde west as it gets sucked into the closed upper low mentioned in the opening paragraph.
We should see the snow Wednesday lessen its intensity for a time as this new storm consolidates its power and then the high drama begins. Models have given us some conclusive evidence regarding the snow through Wednesday but what happens after that remains somewhat uncertain. The newly released high resolution NAM and the two most recently released GFS runs allow this storm to deepen and move west with such ferocity, that a "warm tongue" from the Atlantic Ocean literally slices through interior New England allowing a second round of snow to become rain across valley locations and perhaps parts of the high country as well. It is very hard to fathom but it would not be a meteorological impossibility given such a storm. It would be very similar in fact to the February 10th set up as rain prevailed across the Boston area while snow was falling in locations much farther south like the nations capital. In this instance, rain could be falling in some of the valley areas of Vermont Thursday while snow is falling in New York city. This however is just hypothetical and since this is an occluding storm the effect of elevation will work in MRG's favor. The European model is also suggesting a more favorable outcome with the storm and its "warm tongue" much farther north and much of the state remaining safely in the snow zone.
So with a bit of information overload in the above paragraph the boiled down details would appear as follows. The lighter snow late on Wednesday would become much heavier snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should allow for another round of epic turns Thursday morning at the very least. During the day however temperatures could climb and snow could turn either very wet at the base or turn to rain. If the European model wins the argument, snow would simply continue at varying intensities. Once the storm undergoes this occlusion, we will see sporadic lulls but much of the energy from this very impressive weather system will remain across New England through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In addition the "warm tongue" if any does evolve will simply dissipate by Friday and we should be looking at a steady light to moderate snow through at least Friday and Saturday. The snow totals will thus be immense and the big challenge will be whether or not we can avoid the rain on Thursday.
Here is a summarized break down using first tracks time as a frame of referenced
First tracks Wednesday: Around a foot with 2-4 additional inches during the ski day
First tracks Thursday: 6-12 new inches with snow or mixed precipitation during the day
First tracks Friday: At least a few new inches, but light to moderate snow throughout the day providing additional powder
First tracks Saturday: Additional powder consisting of several inches.
Do the math here and you get some impressive totals.
Thursday will feature a lot of wind as the storm reaches its peak intensity. Winds will slacken gradually on Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 20's Wednesday, near freezing Thursday and back in the 20's in the Friday-Sunday time frame.
And as if to prove how streaky mother nature can be, another huge amplification in the jet stream is likely during the middle of next week leading perhaps to talk of another big storm or at least some additional powder. This would be in the early days of March.
Updates will be required and changes in the forecast, particularly the timing should be expected so please operate under that assumption. Other than that, I appreciate all the interest and all the emails. I apologize for not responding to some but appreciate the comments nonetheless.
As of early Tuesday, snow has already made it to much of New York state but this moisture is associated with a decaying low pressure area in the eastern Great Lakes and much of it will likely fail in its attempt to reach the Vermont high country. Meanwhile a new area of low pressure will gather strength over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and move north over eastern New England. This surface feature will swallow much of the energy from the eastern Great Lakes low and push moderate to heavy snow to MRG Tuesday evening. The snow will accumulate significantly and should provide the mountain with its best powder day in weeks with somewhere in the vicinity of a foot by first tracks time Wednesday.
This initial burst of snow however results from a storm which is not even likely to deepen beyond 1000 mb as it tracks through eastern New England; in fact the storm will begin to lose its potency as another far more dynamic system begins to take shape just behind it over the Atlantic. This new storm will deepen very rapidly thanks largely to the full backing of upper level support approaching from the west. It will also have the necessary baraclinic ingredients of much colder weather approaching from the west mixing with the relative moist warmth of the Atlantic. The result will be an all out explosion near the New England coast and a low pressure area which may eventually deepen to near 980 mb (Valentines Day '07 levels). This second and more dynamic system will give us a little head fake in its initial north-northeast movement but will ultimately turn north and then retrograde west as it gets sucked into the closed upper low mentioned in the opening paragraph.
We should see the snow Wednesday lessen its intensity for a time as this new storm consolidates its power and then the high drama begins. Models have given us some conclusive evidence regarding the snow through Wednesday but what happens after that remains somewhat uncertain. The newly released high resolution NAM and the two most recently released GFS runs allow this storm to deepen and move west with such ferocity, that a "warm tongue" from the Atlantic Ocean literally slices through interior New England allowing a second round of snow to become rain across valley locations and perhaps parts of the high country as well. It is very hard to fathom but it would not be a meteorological impossibility given such a storm. It would be very similar in fact to the February 10th set up as rain prevailed across the Boston area while snow was falling in locations much farther south like the nations capital. In this instance, rain could be falling in some of the valley areas of Vermont Thursday while snow is falling in New York city. This however is just hypothetical and since this is an occluding storm the effect of elevation will work in MRG's favor. The European model is also suggesting a more favorable outcome with the storm and its "warm tongue" much farther north and much of the state remaining safely in the snow zone.
So with a bit of information overload in the above paragraph the boiled down details would appear as follows. The lighter snow late on Wednesday would become much heavier snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should allow for another round of epic turns Thursday morning at the very least. During the day however temperatures could climb and snow could turn either very wet at the base or turn to rain. If the European model wins the argument, snow would simply continue at varying intensities. Once the storm undergoes this occlusion, we will see sporadic lulls but much of the energy from this very impressive weather system will remain across New England through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In addition the "warm tongue" if any does evolve will simply dissipate by Friday and we should be looking at a steady light to moderate snow through at least Friday and Saturday. The snow totals will thus be immense and the big challenge will be whether or not we can avoid the rain on Thursday.
Here is a summarized break down using first tracks time as a frame of referenced
First tracks Wednesday: Around a foot with 2-4 additional inches during the ski day
First tracks Thursday: 6-12 new inches with snow or mixed precipitation during the day
First tracks Friday: At least a few new inches, but light to moderate snow throughout the day providing additional powder
First tracks Saturday: Additional powder consisting of several inches.
Do the math here and you get some impressive totals.
Thursday will feature a lot of wind as the storm reaches its peak intensity. Winds will slacken gradually on Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 20's Wednesday, near freezing Thursday and back in the 20's in the Friday-Sunday time frame.
And as if to prove how streaky mother nature can be, another huge amplification in the jet stream is likely during the middle of next week leading perhaps to talk of another big storm or at least some additional powder. This would be in the early days of March.
Updates will be required and changes in the forecast, particularly the timing should be expected so please operate under that assumption. Other than that, I appreciate all the interest and all the emails. I apologize for not responding to some but appreciate the comments nonetheless.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
It's time to get a little bold and predict a huge week of powder at MRG !!!
It will take some time to evolve but the potential has never been bigger this winter season and by the end of this week will either be camping out at MRG for first tracks or very let down if somehow things fail to come together again. It is a very complex weather situation and for a while it will be a disorganized one and the latter can certainly lead to some anxious moments. The SCWB is all about fun though and would like to try and rise to the challenge rather than hide from it.
As the weather remains quiet and even mild as the weekend wraps up, a storm system will move from the south-central Plains toward eastern Great Lakes spreading snow in a swatch from Kansas to Chicago to Ontario. This system will head northeast with some initial steam but gradually lose strength, speed and cohesiveness in Canada as it encounters the jet stream blocking at the higher latitudes. As this happens however, a large upper trough will descend upon the eastern United States allowing the right ingredients of cold weather across the middle of the country and relative warmth across the Atlantic to ripen the situation for storm development along the east coast. All indications suggest this will happen but the jury is out as to how explosive this development is. As of noon on Saturday, we did see some lose agreement amongst the major computer models to allow a system to form in the vicinity of the Delmarva Peninsula during the middle of the week, move northeast, and then boomerang back into New England as the upper trough evolves into the "bowling ball" we all hope it becomes. There are few impulses rotating through the above mentioned upper air feature and its difficult to be anymore specific except to say that a storm may very well stall in eastern New England and allow a conveyor of moisture from the Atlantic to invariably deposit snow across the Vermont high country for days. That would certainly be my plan if I had any control of it but its far too early make guarantees although it is very nice to see some hard evidence suggesting such an outcome.
In terms of timing, a decaying area of moisture from the weakening storm in the eastern Great Lakes should arrive late on Tuesday and bring some powder for the ski day Wednesday. Any such snow in this time frame will be nice but snowfall from the developing storm along the Atlantic coast (what we hope becomes a full fledged nor’easter) comes later Wednesday and hopefully continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. All I can say is that such an outcome would make for an unbelievable turnaround for much of Vermont ski country and could turn a month that has been remembered for its "Styrofoam" to a month remembered for its "finish".
There are plenty of ways to botch this developing weather situation. Anytime a storm strengthens, stalls and then occludes, warm air from the Atlantic can wrap itself around the northern flank of the storm and actually change snow to something other than snow (we will not mention this word). Storms that occlude are often laced with pockets of dry air which allow for elongated periods where no snow is falling. The storm could also fail to come together at all while the moisture initial eastern Great Lakes dies its slow death and thus allowing the great MRG 2010 snow shield to work its black magic. Fundamentally however, if the storm does indeed stall and occlude, it will be the Vermont high country which will benefit the most. Occlusions are characterized by winds at varying levels of the troposphere aligning directionally and thus making precipitation (amount and type) very sensitive to elevation. I will therefore not at all be surprised to see some surprisingly low snowfall totals across both the Champlain and Upper Valley's while the huge totals come in across both the Green and White mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire.
It is a very exciting situation to say the least. I know we have had a few that haven’t quite played out according to plan but we have to keep calling them like we see them and this one is the best I have seen through the winter season to date.
As the weather remains quiet and even mild as the weekend wraps up, a storm system will move from the south-central Plains toward eastern Great Lakes spreading snow in a swatch from Kansas to Chicago to Ontario. This system will head northeast with some initial steam but gradually lose strength, speed and cohesiveness in Canada as it encounters the jet stream blocking at the higher latitudes. As this happens however, a large upper trough will descend upon the eastern United States allowing the right ingredients of cold weather across the middle of the country and relative warmth across the Atlantic to ripen the situation for storm development along the east coast. All indications suggest this will happen but the jury is out as to how explosive this development is. As of noon on Saturday, we did see some lose agreement amongst the major computer models to allow a system to form in the vicinity of the Delmarva Peninsula during the middle of the week, move northeast, and then boomerang back into New England as the upper trough evolves into the "bowling ball" we all hope it becomes. There are few impulses rotating through the above mentioned upper air feature and its difficult to be anymore specific except to say that a storm may very well stall in eastern New England and allow a conveyor of moisture from the Atlantic to invariably deposit snow across the Vermont high country for days. That would certainly be my plan if I had any control of it but its far too early make guarantees although it is very nice to see some hard evidence suggesting such an outcome.
In terms of timing, a decaying area of moisture from the weakening storm in the eastern Great Lakes should arrive late on Tuesday and bring some powder for the ski day Wednesday. Any such snow in this time frame will be nice but snowfall from the developing storm along the Atlantic coast (what we hope becomes a full fledged nor’easter) comes later Wednesday and hopefully continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. All I can say is that such an outcome would make for an unbelievable turnaround for much of Vermont ski country and could turn a month that has been remembered for its "Styrofoam" to a month remembered for its "finish".
There are plenty of ways to botch this developing weather situation. Anytime a storm strengthens, stalls and then occludes, warm air from the Atlantic can wrap itself around the northern flank of the storm and actually change snow to something other than snow (we will not mention this word). Storms that occlude are often laced with pockets of dry air which allow for elongated periods where no snow is falling. The storm could also fail to come together at all while the moisture initial eastern Great Lakes dies its slow death and thus allowing the great MRG 2010 snow shield to work its black magic. Fundamentally however, if the storm does indeed stall and occlude, it will be the Vermont high country which will benefit the most. Occlusions are characterized by winds at varying levels of the troposphere aligning directionally and thus making precipitation (amount and type) very sensitive to elevation. I will therefore not at all be surprised to see some surprisingly low snowfall totals across both the Champlain and Upper Valley's while the huge totals come in across both the Green and White mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire.
It is a very exciting situation to say the least. I know we have had a few that haven’t quite played out according to plan but we have to keep calling them like we see them and this one is the best I have seen through the winter season to date.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
One more chance for snow through Friday, otherwise its a bust for the ages
I have had my share of busts under-predicting snow amounts at MRG although its funny, it somehow goes unnoticed. I think the most important thing is to just get the powder which of course we really haven't done and thus the busting has certainly not gone unnoticed. All that said, "tempers running a little high" remained for the most part in good fun and this audience remains the best audience anyone could blog for. The lack of powder has allowed this snow drought of ours to take on a life of its own and one can't help but to be a little superstitious if it helps kill the MRG snow shield. One would think it would then be wise to declare the week a total loss and regroup. In truth however, there is one more impulse that could be the catalyst for a bit of snow Thursday night into Friday. If by Friday evening we are still measuring a dusting to an inch then it will then be prudent to fess up to what will be a very lousy forecast.
Moving on to the weekend, we should see snow shower activity on Friday (and hopefully it will be lots of activity Friday) subside to flurries on Saturday. We should also see some intervals of sun and given the higher February sun angle this should allow temperatures to reach or get very close to the freezing mark. We should see the existing snow soften as a result by Saturday afternoon and more of the same for Sunday as similar weather conditions prevail.
Next week looks very promising as of now although I am very scared to call it such. We have had a few successive runs of the European model take a storm from the central Rockies, and move it to the Atlantic Coast. The model does show the storm taking the all important turn north and then stalling again somewhere in extreme eastern Quebec. This would be a very encouraging result since not only would the storm deposit some much needed powder across the mountain but the pool of instability associated with its upper air support would sit across the interior northeast allowing for terrain induced snow during the middle of the week. The American GFS model is farther south and is indicating less snow from this system but at the same time does not shut us out. The hypothetical in question would have Monday as a dry and tranquil day, Tuesday powdery and Wednesday and Thursday potentially powdery as well. Lets just be careful for the time being to not get overly optimistic. Snow droughts are funny and this one has certainly proven to have a bit of teflon so the SCWB will respect it until its over.
Looking farther ahead, it appears we will be in for a round of some late season winter chill. I was expecting a blast of cold a bit earlier in the period but we now have some good indications that the cold will be strongest late next week and into the weekend following what we hope to be several days of snow. If you have been watching any of the Olympics, Lyndon State's own and long time weather channel anchor Jim Cantore has illustrated the western ridge quite well with some fancy graphics. Such a ridge is the fuel behind the PNA and allows the pipeline of arctic cold to open and ultimately delivered for much of the eastern United States.
That is it for now. Lets think snow and think about it long and hard !!
Moving on to the weekend, we should see snow shower activity on Friday (and hopefully it will be lots of activity Friday) subside to flurries on Saturday. We should also see some intervals of sun and given the higher February sun angle this should allow temperatures to reach or get very close to the freezing mark. We should see the existing snow soften as a result by Saturday afternoon and more of the same for Sunday as similar weather conditions prevail.
Next week looks very promising as of now although I am very scared to call it such. We have had a few successive runs of the European model take a storm from the central Rockies, and move it to the Atlantic Coast. The model does show the storm taking the all important turn north and then stalling again somewhere in extreme eastern Quebec. This would be a very encouraging result since not only would the storm deposit some much needed powder across the mountain but the pool of instability associated with its upper air support would sit across the interior northeast allowing for terrain induced snow during the middle of the week. The American GFS model is farther south and is indicating less snow from this system but at the same time does not shut us out. The hypothetical in question would have Monday as a dry and tranquil day, Tuesday powdery and Wednesday and Thursday potentially powdery as well. Lets just be careful for the time being to not get overly optimistic. Snow droughts are funny and this one has certainly proven to have a bit of teflon so the SCWB will respect it until its over.
Looking farther ahead, it appears we will be in for a round of some late season winter chill. I was expecting a blast of cold a bit earlier in the period but we now have some good indications that the cold will be strongest late next week and into the weekend following what we hope to be several days of snow. If you have been watching any of the Olympics, Lyndon State's own and long time weather channel anchor Jim Cantore has illustrated the western ridge quite well with some fancy graphics. Such a ridge is the fuel behind the PNA and allows the pipeline of arctic cold to open and ultimately delivered for much of the eastern United States.
That is it for now. Lets think snow and think about it long and hard !!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Storm gives us the ole right hook but we are not done and neither is our prediction
Tempers seem to be running a little high based on some emails I have gotten but the call of 1-2 feet was a fairly loose prognostication meant to span a few days and given such a time we may live up to some of these original expectations. Watching Connecticut, Massachusetts and southern Vermont outperform MRG is frustrating but as this storm continues to push northward and stall, it will provide some us with some long awaited dividend payments before making a final farewell. As I pointed out, the atmosphere will remain relatively moist through much of the lower troposphere and there are two upper level impulses, one which should pass early Wednesday and another Thursday night which will provide the boost necessary for some snow across the high country. I know the forecasts appear pessimistic but this situation is elevation sensitive and the next few days will feature limited amounts of accumulating snow in the valley locations. The mountains, particularly across the northern half of the state should perform modestly and over a foot of new powder by early Friday is still a completely reasonable expectation (so long as we are talking about areas above 1500 feet).
Sunday, February 14, 2010
1-2 feet of powder over the next few days...
is worth two posts in one day if it breaks the back of the current snow drought. I was a little light on details on the last post since I don't like missing my plane but I will try to make up for it with a second post that includes some accumulation numbers and some timing.
This is a system rich with upper air dynamic support but a weaker on moisture particularly compared to some of the southern branch monsters to hit the Mid-Atlantic in recent weeks. Nonetheless, it will grab some a limited chunk of Atlantic Moisture on its New England approach and track just west of Boston. This was a key shift in the expectations which only occurred within the last 24 hours or so. The shift allows moisture to spill westward to the Green Mountain chain and for snow to begin around daybreak on Tuesday and continue at a steady pace throughout much of the day and into the evening. The American Model has had several consecutive runs now where around a foot of snow would fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Other data suggests a bit less. All the data does show lingering moisture in the wake of this storm capable of producing several more inches of snow with the help of any kind of upper air catalyst. This will be interesting to watch because the atmosphere will need a bit of a boost to turn unstable late this week but such a boost could do huge things for the northern half of Vermont, at least over the high country. The headline of the post would be a rather conservative estimate if you catch my drift (no pun intended).
A burst in the PNA index should lead to a few days of more serious New England cold probably sometime next weekend. A burst of cold could lead to another burst of snow or could end a long duration of snow shower activity which could persist for a few days. The general "blocking" in the pattern will largely remain in place however meaning organized systems will have a tendency to track to our south and the rain/snow line will prefer to set up over the Florida/Georgia border as opposed to the Vermont/Mass border like it did with the most recent storm.
Overall this is a major positive development for us and could lead to the epic week for snow we have all been waiting for.
This is a system rich with upper air dynamic support but a weaker on moisture particularly compared to some of the southern branch monsters to hit the Mid-Atlantic in recent weeks. Nonetheless, it will grab some a limited chunk of Atlantic Moisture on its New England approach and track just west of Boston. This was a key shift in the expectations which only occurred within the last 24 hours or so. The shift allows moisture to spill westward to the Green Mountain chain and for snow to begin around daybreak on Tuesday and continue at a steady pace throughout much of the day and into the evening. The American Model has had several consecutive runs now where around a foot of snow would fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Other data suggests a bit less. All the data does show lingering moisture in the wake of this storm capable of producing several more inches of snow with the help of any kind of upper air catalyst. This will be interesting to watch because the atmosphere will need a bit of a boost to turn unstable late this week but such a boost could do huge things for the northern half of Vermont, at least over the high country. The headline of the post would be a rather conservative estimate if you catch my drift (no pun intended).
A burst in the PNA index should lead to a few days of more serious New England cold probably sometime next weekend. A burst of cold could lead to another burst of snow or could end a long duration of snow shower activity which could persist for a few days. The general "blocking" in the pattern will largely remain in place however meaning organized systems will have a tendency to track to our south and the rain/snow line will prefer to set up over the Florida/Georgia border as opposed to the Vermont/Mass border like it did with the most recent storm.
Overall this is a major positive development for us and could lead to the epic week for snow we have all been waiting for.
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