Good news on most fronts today as we head toward the last few days of January. Not sure if we can escape all of the adversity in this upcoming week but perhaps it can be minimized. There was a tweet out there referencing the Mt Mansfield snow stake which graphically showed that the snow depth this year was about the worst ever recorded (in just over 60 years of data). It's actually a close race with a few years in the mid 50's and 1979-80. A mild February with minimal snow could certainly cement the winter as one of the worst ever for snow depth but it doesn't look like that will be the case. Over the past two days ensembles have been painting an ever more promising picture starting around February 4th and likely continuing for at least two weeks.
We enjoyed a bit of snow on Friday and advection induced precipitation late Saturday into Saturday night could bring upwards of an inch. Trouble starts after that with a somewhat innocuous above-freezing Sunday. Monday is even warmer as readings could surge to 40 along with some rain showers. I had offered a glimmer of hope regarding the potential rainy disaster this upcoming Wednesday and that hope remains. Monday's system will indeed usher in a layer of cold, dry air for Tuesday which we will so desperately need as a giant system winds itself up and heads for the Great Lakes. Current indications suggest that this will ultimately travel through the land gully in between Lake's Huron and Erie. It will then proceed northeastward either right over the St Lawrence Valley.
This is hardly ideal but I've seen worse. The layer of cold, dry air should allow for a period of icing at the very least and the period of plain old liquid rain appears reduced to a handful of hours. If the storm can just move 50-100 miles further south, not a lot of ask, we would turn this ice/rain event to more of a snow/ice base building event. Not a likely scenario as of yet but not eliminated from the possibility spectrum either.
Then February 4th comes and suddenly mother nature waves her magic wand and everything is just swell. A beautiful looking west coast ridge starts to take shape and extends vertically up the west coast and eventually adjoins with a weak area of blocking in the Arctic. Even the EPO forecasts have trended more negatively in the past two days and are now indicating a slightly loose Pacific Jet in about a week's time. What does it all mean ? Cold weather and lots of it. In addition, with the axis of the ridge setting up from the American west coast northward to the Yukon/Alaskan border, the east coast becomes a tinder box of activity for storms. El Nino should provide the fuel for it as well. There have been hints of storms embedded within this pattern all over the place and one way or another the mountain should benefit. The cold will settle into the region February 4th and the first snow is likely to come from a clipper system February 6th (A Saturday). I won't speculate on when the snow comes after that but I would be shocked if significant amounts of the good stuff doesn't fall between the 6th and 20th of the month. More on this in the coming days.
Friday, January 29, 2016
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Tough times next week perhaps but snow in the short term and a more favorable pattern starting February 4th.
I was holding out yesterday and early today, hoping for some better news regarding next week. I don't really have any in that time frame, unfortunately, at least not today. The pattern should align itself more favorably starting around February 4th and a few dinky systems may provide a few powder hours over the next 3 days or so. An occasional bout of mild weather is a fairly routine part of a New England winter and it looks as though we will contend with it starting late on January 31 and persisting through February 3. It's not etched in stone just yet but we need some late inning heroics perhaps from Big Papi if you're a Sox fan or from Yoenis Cespedes if you're a Mets fan. Sorry Yankee fans, I am no mood to give A-Rod any love today but maybe Beltran who was an under appreciated Met in his days in Queens.
The weather map later tomorrow will have another juicy southern streamer near the Carolina coast but this one will advance well off shore Friday. The models teased us with this storm a few days ago but there was never a consensus for a big New England hit and it certainly won't happen. At the same time, a weaker clipper system will deliver some moisture to Vermont albeit in limited amounts on Friday. We should see snow develop during the morning and continue throughout the day. This is the good low density stuff and we could see several inches of it (3-7 inches) by late Friday evening.
As one system exits later Friday another weaker disturbance arrives with its small amount of moisture later Saturday. This looks like a weak area of advection/overrunning type snow but another few inches could fall late in the day Saturday into Saturday. Moisture looks best the farther north you go with the Saturday system.
The first above-freezing day follows for Sunday. This is in response to many of the upstream changes with the jet stream we've discussed but most directly a massive snow-producing Rocky Mountain system which plans to pummel much of Colorado with snow Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will creep above freezing Sunday but will struggle to fall Sunday night thanks to a mild flow of air and clouds from an advancing but relatively weak storm. Rain showers are possible later Monday from this but temperatures should remain in the 30's and melting will be fairly minimal.
The threat of tumultuous times rises thereafter. I was hoping this initial, relatively innocently looking Monday system could dig a little downstream of us and help push both colder and drier air back into the region Tuesday. Models continue to hint at that a bit but are struggling to advance the cold into New England in any real material way. A mostly unfrozen and relatively warm Great Lakes aggregate isn't helping us with this I might mention. The very strong Rocky Mountain system then advances into the plains on Tuesday and takes aim at the Great Lakes. The track of this system is not a good one and it doesn't appear to want to break apart at all. One big consolidated system in the northern Great Lakes will push mild air and potentially a lot of ice and rain into the region Wednesday. We can hope that the system simply occludes in the Great Lakes to a point that a coastal low takes over in the Gulf of Maine and thwarts the push of milder air. It's not a total lost cause yet but isn't looking good as of Wednesday afternoon.
The outlook does improve thereafter with a period of colder weather scheduled to begin around February 4th. There is a minimal amount of blocking in the Arctic which will keep the AO in check and although the jet stream in the Pacific moves from adverse to marginal, a ridge in the jet stream which will set up shop in western North America will help provide the pipeline for cold. The middle part of February looks like a competing forces situation as well but no glaring signs of another thaw at all.
The weather map later tomorrow will have another juicy southern streamer near the Carolina coast but this one will advance well off shore Friday. The models teased us with this storm a few days ago but there was never a consensus for a big New England hit and it certainly won't happen. At the same time, a weaker clipper system will deliver some moisture to Vermont albeit in limited amounts on Friday. We should see snow develop during the morning and continue throughout the day. This is the good low density stuff and we could see several inches of it (3-7 inches) by late Friday evening.
As one system exits later Friday another weaker disturbance arrives with its small amount of moisture later Saturday. This looks like a weak area of advection/overrunning type snow but another few inches could fall late in the day Saturday into Saturday. Moisture looks best the farther north you go with the Saturday system.
The first above-freezing day follows for Sunday. This is in response to many of the upstream changes with the jet stream we've discussed but most directly a massive snow-producing Rocky Mountain system which plans to pummel much of Colorado with snow Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will creep above freezing Sunday but will struggle to fall Sunday night thanks to a mild flow of air and clouds from an advancing but relatively weak storm. Rain showers are possible later Monday from this but temperatures should remain in the 30's and melting will be fairly minimal.
The threat of tumultuous times rises thereafter. I was hoping this initial, relatively innocently looking Monday system could dig a little downstream of us and help push both colder and drier air back into the region Tuesday. Models continue to hint at that a bit but are struggling to advance the cold into New England in any real material way. A mostly unfrozen and relatively warm Great Lakes aggregate isn't helping us with this I might mention. The very strong Rocky Mountain system then advances into the plains on Tuesday and takes aim at the Great Lakes. The track of this system is not a good one and it doesn't appear to want to break apart at all. One big consolidated system in the northern Great Lakes will push mild air and potentially a lot of ice and rain into the region Wednesday. We can hope that the system simply occludes in the Great Lakes to a point that a coastal low takes over in the Gulf of Maine and thwarts the push of milder air. It's not a total lost cause yet but isn't looking good as of Wednesday afternoon.
The outlook does improve thereafter with a period of colder weather scheduled to begin around February 4th. There is a minimal amount of blocking in the Arctic which will keep the AO in check and although the jet stream in the Pacific moves from adverse to marginal, a ridge in the jet stream which will set up shop in western North America will help provide the pipeline for cold. The middle part of February looks like a competing forces situation as well but no glaring signs of another thaw at all.
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Potential thaw next week looks weaker and forecast might yet include some new snow
Weather and snow was front and center across the entire east coast media landscape this weekend. Watching Washington D.C. and Philadelphia get buried in a massive east coast storm reminded me of a few other big El Nino seasons. Both the 1982-83 and 1986-87 featured mild starts to the winter. 1986 also featured a massive storm in the arctic which was responsible for a big spike in temperatures near the north pole just like one that occurred this past December. 1983 featured the famous "Megalopitan" storm in February and 1987 featured an epic 10 days of winter in late January. The biggest of the storms in 1987 also occurred on January 22-23. Interestingly, much of the weather discussed in this paragraph also missed Vermont. The storm which was quickly labeled "historic" and "record breaking" actually fits somewhat into the pattern of big El Nino winters along the east coast. Generally mild weather over the course of 3 months but also a short and very epic stretch of winter weather which typically includes one memorable winter storm. Hopefully we can get ours as well.
"Ours" probably won't come this week. A brief spike in temperatures arrives Tuesday with readings eclipsing the freezing mark for the first time since the rain a few weeks ago. A benign shot of colder weather brings some light snow Wednesday but accumulations will be in the 1-3 inch range. There is yet another system in the invariably active southern branch of the jet which is going to try and organize itself off the Carolina coast late Thursday. As this is happening a weaker clipper system will approach and there have been hints that the two will try and get together and dance a little but even this scenario wouldn't promise great results for the mountain or the state as a whole.
Another surge of mild air makes a run at the mountain early next week. This is in response to the tightening jet in the Pacific we have been discussing. Storminess will consolidate somewhat in the west but a few pieces of energy will cross the country and prevent a full scale onslaught of warmth but it doesn't entirely reduce the risk of rain either. It honestly looks on multiple days that Snow/Rain/Ice line will be very close to central and northern Vermont and it will take a few days to sort out some of the details. That said, frozen precip and specifically snow is still a possibility for part of next week in spite of the generally milder outlook.
The outlook improves after about February 4th and 5th thanks to the Arctic Oscillation which will keep its negative state and a weak ridge which will develop across western North America. This should set the stage for another period of sub freezing temperatures and open up the opportunity to accumulate some snow.
"Ours" probably won't come this week. A brief spike in temperatures arrives Tuesday with readings eclipsing the freezing mark for the first time since the rain a few weeks ago. A benign shot of colder weather brings some light snow Wednesday but accumulations will be in the 1-3 inch range. There is yet another system in the invariably active southern branch of the jet which is going to try and organize itself off the Carolina coast late Thursday. As this is happening a weaker clipper system will approach and there have been hints that the two will try and get together and dance a little but even this scenario wouldn't promise great results for the mountain or the state as a whole.
Another surge of mild air makes a run at the mountain early next week. This is in response to the tightening jet in the Pacific we have been discussing. Storminess will consolidate somewhat in the west but a few pieces of energy will cross the country and prevent a full scale onslaught of warmth but it doesn't entirely reduce the risk of rain either. It honestly looks on multiple days that Snow/Rain/Ice line will be very close to central and northern Vermont and it will take a few days to sort out some of the details. That said, frozen precip and specifically snow is still a possibility for part of next week in spite of the generally milder outlook.
The outlook improves after about February 4th and 5th thanks to the Arctic Oscillation which will keep its negative state and a weak ridge which will develop across western North America. This should set the stage for another period of sub freezing temperatures and open up the opportunity to accumulate some snow.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Big Mid Atlantic blizzard does Vermont no favors so time to look beyond
What a storm for the Mid-Atlantic ! They missed out on a lot of the action since the famous "Snowmageddon" of 2010 and they never seem to mind. When the DMV area does get clobbered, such as what will happen on Friday night and Saturday, all hell breaks loose and their is a massive run on food, gas and other basic necessities. That's not how we roll in Vermont however which is why we deserve a storm such as this and they don't.
With the exception of the south shore of New England, most of the entire region will in fact miss this storm. New York city is right on the edge. The storm closes off well underneath the relaxing polar jet and allows the powerful southern branch of the jet stream to simply push it out to sea before it make a real northward turn. Some might disagree with this assertion but if the El Nino was perhaps a little weaker, and the southern branch of the jet was a little weaker, we might have had a more fruitful outcome. Still, we have done quite alright with the smaller systems and terrain enhancement and there is more of that to come.
Temperatures will have a chance to moderate Saturday thanks to a full day of sunshine. By Sunday, readings could reach the 30 degree mark. 30 degrees is about the warmest we will reach for the duration of the month fortunately. Unfortunately, the prospects for big snow are reduce but smaller amounts of powder remain in the cards. A decaying system from the southern Rockies will fail in its attempts to grab any serious Gulf of Mexico moisture. What moisture it does have though will fall in the form of light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. This storm is worth a few inches but not much more than that. A nice little jet buckling is beginning to show up on the some of the medium range models as of Friday. There will be a clipper associated with this undoubtedly and some snow should fall in advance of the last full weekend in January.
My thoughts on early February have improved somewhat. Yes, I still expect the EPO to make a sign switch allowing the evil empire to show its ugly face. That said, the arctic oscillation will remain negative and some ensembles suggest solidly so. The door will open for a rain event and a few above freezing days, but the chances of a December 2015 mild air onslaught are reduced in my view. In addition I think one could argue that a few big Rocky Mountain systems will track in our direction bringing lots of moisture with them. It should be a great pattern for the west and perhaps not such a bad one for New England.
With the exception of the south shore of New England, most of the entire region will in fact miss this storm. New York city is right on the edge. The storm closes off well underneath the relaxing polar jet and allows the powerful southern branch of the jet stream to simply push it out to sea before it make a real northward turn. Some might disagree with this assertion but if the El Nino was perhaps a little weaker, and the southern branch of the jet was a little weaker, we might have had a more fruitful outcome. Still, we have done quite alright with the smaller systems and terrain enhancement and there is more of that to come.
Temperatures will have a chance to moderate Saturday thanks to a full day of sunshine. By Sunday, readings could reach the 30 degree mark. 30 degrees is about the warmest we will reach for the duration of the month fortunately. Unfortunately, the prospects for big snow are reduce but smaller amounts of powder remain in the cards. A decaying system from the southern Rockies will fail in its attempts to grab any serious Gulf of Mexico moisture. What moisture it does have though will fall in the form of light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. This storm is worth a few inches but not much more than that. A nice little jet buckling is beginning to show up on the some of the medium range models as of Friday. There will be a clipper associated with this undoubtedly and some snow should fall in advance of the last full weekend in January.
My thoughts on early February have improved somewhat. Yes, I still expect the EPO to make a sign switch allowing the evil empire to show its ugly face. That said, the arctic oscillation will remain negative and some ensembles suggest solidly so. The door will open for a rain event and a few above freezing days, but the chances of a December 2015 mild air onslaught are reduced in my view. In addition I think one could argue that a few big Rocky Mountain systems will track in our direction bringing lots of moisture with them. It should be a great pattern for the west and perhaps not such a bad one for New England.
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Big weekend noreaster still appears to far south for us Vermont powderhounds
The valley is enjoying a nice taste of winter and everyone seems very thankful for that. We've enjoyed a nice stretch where fluff seems to be arriving daily. Mad River has gotten more than 20 inches of snow in the last 8 days with more falling as of Tuesday morning. Most of the discussion relating to weather has shifted to the late week and weekend potential noreaster.
The storm is the work the work of the powerful southern branch of the jet stream which has, as expected, been extremely active thanks to the work of the strong El Nino. The storm will not receive any help from the relaxing polar branch of the jet stream which will recede into Canada as this storm begins its interaction with the Atlantic Coast on Friday. The proper ingredients are in place and there is no risk for mixed precipitation or rain. The storm will strengthen to about 990 mb and proceed northeast from there. 990 mb is quite strong but not historic as far as noreaster's go. It's the moisture which makes this event particularly distinctive. The Gulf of Mexico will provide a large share of it on Thursday and the Atlantic Ocean will provide additional fuel for the fire Friday into Saturday.
Speaking for us Vermont powderhounds, the track of this system appears problematic. The storm reaches the Virginia Tidewater late Friday which is terrific and then heads northeast. We just need the storm to head more north and less east. With the pattern more or less relaxing around the storm, there is nothing to prevent the storm from moving in any particular direction. Simple continuity of momentum will take the system too far south but sometimes the natural baraclinicity provided by the coastline can guide these systems farther north verses expectations. Recall, the Valentines Day storm of 2007 was forecasted to be a coastal hit only and the track shifted north at around the 10th hour. I wish I could say this was more likely again but it isn't. Models have converged and remained relatively consistent with the trajectory of this storm. The areas most impacted by snow would be interior Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southern New England. Vermont would get mostly missed with the exception of perhaps the southern third of the state.
A brief window of milder weather arrives in the wake of the big noreaster. Not extremely mild but Sunday's temps will reach the high 20's with the help of some sunshine and Monday's readings could reach 30. Winter will make a return next week however with snow coming from a clipper system late Monday or Tuesday. The pattern will then re-amplify and allow for another potential winter storm. There has been no agreement on this hypothetical midweek system but it remains a possibility for now.
Still not liking the look of early February right now. A jet tightening in the Pacific will try very hard and cause a jet trough consolidation in the western United States. This is not what we want at all. We can hang our hat on the Arctic Oscillation however which is not expected to switch signs but rather remain slightly negative or neutral. This might thwart the massive onslaught of mild weather which was featured during most of December.
The storm is the work the work of the powerful southern branch of the jet stream which has, as expected, been extremely active thanks to the work of the strong El Nino. The storm will not receive any help from the relaxing polar branch of the jet stream which will recede into Canada as this storm begins its interaction with the Atlantic Coast on Friday. The proper ingredients are in place and there is no risk for mixed precipitation or rain. The storm will strengthen to about 990 mb and proceed northeast from there. 990 mb is quite strong but not historic as far as noreaster's go. It's the moisture which makes this event particularly distinctive. The Gulf of Mexico will provide a large share of it on Thursday and the Atlantic Ocean will provide additional fuel for the fire Friday into Saturday.
Speaking for us Vermont powderhounds, the track of this system appears problematic. The storm reaches the Virginia Tidewater late Friday which is terrific and then heads northeast. We just need the storm to head more north and less east. With the pattern more or less relaxing around the storm, there is nothing to prevent the storm from moving in any particular direction. Simple continuity of momentum will take the system too far south but sometimes the natural baraclinicity provided by the coastline can guide these systems farther north verses expectations. Recall, the Valentines Day storm of 2007 was forecasted to be a coastal hit only and the track shifted north at around the 10th hour. I wish I could say this was more likely again but it isn't. Models have converged and remained relatively consistent with the trajectory of this storm. The areas most impacted by snow would be interior Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southern New England. Vermont would get mostly missed with the exception of perhaps the southern third of the state.
A brief window of milder weather arrives in the wake of the big noreaster. Not extremely mild but Sunday's temps will reach the high 20's with the help of some sunshine and Monday's readings could reach 30. Winter will make a return next week however with snow coming from a clipper system late Monday or Tuesday. The pattern will then re-amplify and allow for another potential winter storm. There has been no agreement on this hypothetical midweek system but it remains a possibility for now.
Still not liking the look of early February right now. A jet tightening in the Pacific will try very hard and cause a jet trough consolidation in the western United States. This is not what we want at all. We can hang our hat on the Arctic Oscillation however which is not expected to switch signs but rather remain slightly negative or neutral. This might thwart the massive onslaught of mild weather which was featured during most of December.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
6 or more inches of fluff Monday/Tuesday while we watch a potentialy massive storm for the upcoming weekend
We are in the midst of a decent little stretch of weather as the snow continues to slowly pile up . Snow, from a healthy looking polar jet disturbance will provide the fluff for Monday. The wind is likely to blow it around a bit on the summits as temperatures drop through the teens but 5-10 inches is still the range. Though the snow will become more occasional as we advance through MLK day, it should continue. A much weaker disturbance will help intensify the terrain enhanced snow Tuesday providing another 2-5 inches. Tuesday will be a cold one though with readings hovering between 5-15 most of the day along with wind chills well below zero. Flurries should continue into Tuesday night before tapering off entirely by Wednesday.
The end of the week including the aforementioned Wednesday appears dry and a touch on the chilly side of normal. All three days should feature relatively calm winds and terrific visibility. Most of the weather eyes will be watching what appears to one of the big winter weather events of the year which should strike the east coast on the 22nd and 23rd of the month or this upcoming Friday and Saturday. Now, lets give the American GFS some credit here. The model has endured quite a bit of bashing on the SCWB and much of it deserved, but it has shown hints of this system the last several days and other models are now climbing on board the train. A weak polar high pressure center will provide just enough cold air as a large and moist system in the southern branch of the jet makes a brisk march across the southern plains. The pattern will soften around this system which more or less provides a bit of "free play time" for east coast storms. Models are indicating a rapid intensification Friday night and a mammoth snowfall event for mostly coastal areas of the northeast or perhaps areas just off the coast. The lack of a stronger polar high pressure center opens the door for a few areas to see more of a rain event. Though the Canadian model is the only of the three major medium range simulations to indicate a big hit for Vermont, it is very possible that this northward trend in the expected track continues from the other two models. Again, there is no polar jet energy to suppress this system so it can do what it wants, so lets just see where we are in 2 days or so.
The last week of January will feature a clipper system and the possibility for a bigger more organized storm late in the week. It will not be especially cold but generally below freezing. There are some ominous signs as we head into February as the EPO is expected to flip to positive. This basically means that the jet stream will tighten in the Pacific forcing more unsettled weather out in the west while milder weather dominates eastern North America. There is a long way to go still and 2 weeks of generally favorable weather in front of it so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves.
The end of the week including the aforementioned Wednesday appears dry and a touch on the chilly side of normal. All three days should feature relatively calm winds and terrific visibility. Most of the weather eyes will be watching what appears to one of the big winter weather events of the year which should strike the east coast on the 22nd and 23rd of the month or this upcoming Friday and Saturday. Now, lets give the American GFS some credit here. The model has endured quite a bit of bashing on the SCWB and much of it deserved, but it has shown hints of this system the last several days and other models are now climbing on board the train. A weak polar high pressure center will provide just enough cold air as a large and moist system in the southern branch of the jet makes a brisk march across the southern plains. The pattern will soften around this system which more or less provides a bit of "free play time" for east coast storms. Models are indicating a rapid intensification Friday night and a mammoth snowfall event for mostly coastal areas of the northeast or perhaps areas just off the coast. The lack of a stronger polar high pressure center opens the door for a few areas to see more of a rain event. Though the Canadian model is the only of the three major medium range simulations to indicate a big hit for Vermont, it is very possible that this northward trend in the expected track continues from the other two models. Again, there is no polar jet energy to suppress this system so it can do what it wants, so lets just see where we are in 2 days or so.
The last week of January will feature a clipper system and the possibility for a bigger more organized storm late in the week. It will not be especially cold but generally below freezing. There are some ominous signs as we head into February as the EPO is expected to flip to positive. This basically means that the jet stream will tighten in the Pacific forcing more unsettled weather out in the west while milder weather dominates eastern North America. There is a long way to go still and 2 weeks of generally favorable weather in front of it so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Friday, January 15, 2016
No epic storm for the holiday weekend but 2 out the 3 days will feature accumulating snow
Our Saturday system is about one-step out of phase and most of the "juice" with the storm will remain along the coast or too far off shore for any big snow to occur across Vermont. Still, the conglomeration of low pressure centers, one too far off shore and the other which will travel into Quebec Saturday, will manage to bring another light snowfall to the mountain. A refreshing 3-5 inches of snow will fall during the day, but temperatures will be within a few degrees of the freezing mark resulting in a wetter consistency to the snow at the base while snowfall should be powdery closer to the summits. There are some hints that precipitation Saturday could begin as a little mixed bag but I am confident that of a snow event after the first half hour or so.
Temperatures Sunday will return to the lower and middle 20's. The high country should continue to see flurries and an occasional snow shower but Sunday is the day where Vermont is in between pieces of jet energy and thus accumulating snow will be minimal if any. On Sunday night, a very potent piece of polar jet energy will approach, bringing with it a blast of modest chill, but more importantly a healthy layer of boundary level instability. I really like the way this setup looks Sunday night into Monday and most of the higher terrain in Vermont stands to do quite well in spite of limited moisture on MLK day. We should see a few inches of snow by first tracks time Monday morning a few more during the morning before the snow tapers to flurries/snow showers and temperatures drop to 10 during the evening. The holiday Monday is setting up to be the best ski day of the year for the northeast and particularly at MRG with 5-10 powdery inches. Just dress for the chill.
Flurries and occasional snow showers will continue all the way into Tuesday and some additional fluff is possible though this will be on the lighter side. Temperatures will only reach the low teens Tuesday and will only gradually moderate for the rest of the week making it the coldest of the season so far. The Wednesday to Friday stretch is expected to be mainly dry.
Our next shot at a significant storm comes during the next weekend. The pattern seems to be locked into one that produces storms on about a weekly basis and I expect to be talking about one next weekend as well. Models have been on again and off again regarding any potential system and ensembles means are hinting more at a coastal impact. That being said, it is way too early to marry oneself to any solution. We have another chance next weekend (the 23rd and 24th) and need a few days to determine how good that chance is.
The MJO phase index describes the cyclic activity of low latitude Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean convective activity. It has a lot of say over the looseness and tightness of the middle latitude Pacific Ocean jet stream. It moved from warm North American phases in December to cold North American phases in January and is currently in a relatively cold phase right now by supporting a looser Pacific Jet. Over the next two weeks, the MJO is expected to either be neutral or just slighty supportive of a colder North American phase. Meanwhile, teleconnection indices will move from supportive to only marginally supportive. This will allow the El Nino, which is off its high's for the season to become a bit more pronounced and allow for the possibility of a period of milder weather around the end of the month. Still no big thaw is expected and there still is a chance for another storm around the 27th to 29th of the month I think.
Temperatures Sunday will return to the lower and middle 20's. The high country should continue to see flurries and an occasional snow shower but Sunday is the day where Vermont is in between pieces of jet energy and thus accumulating snow will be minimal if any. On Sunday night, a very potent piece of polar jet energy will approach, bringing with it a blast of modest chill, but more importantly a healthy layer of boundary level instability. I really like the way this setup looks Sunday night into Monday and most of the higher terrain in Vermont stands to do quite well in spite of limited moisture on MLK day. We should see a few inches of snow by first tracks time Monday morning a few more during the morning before the snow tapers to flurries/snow showers and temperatures drop to 10 during the evening. The holiday Monday is setting up to be the best ski day of the year for the northeast and particularly at MRG with 5-10 powdery inches. Just dress for the chill.
Flurries and occasional snow showers will continue all the way into Tuesday and some additional fluff is possible though this will be on the lighter side. Temperatures will only reach the low teens Tuesday and will only gradually moderate for the rest of the week making it the coldest of the season so far. The Wednesday to Friday stretch is expected to be mainly dry.
Our next shot at a significant storm comes during the next weekend. The pattern seems to be locked into one that produces storms on about a weekly basis and I expect to be talking about one next weekend as well. Models have been on again and off again regarding any potential system and ensembles means are hinting more at a coastal impact. That being said, it is way too early to marry oneself to any solution. We have another chance next weekend (the 23rd and 24th) and need a few days to determine how good that chance is.
The MJO phase index describes the cyclic activity of low latitude Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean convective activity. It has a lot of say over the looseness and tightness of the middle latitude Pacific Ocean jet stream. It moved from warm North American phases in December to cold North American phases in January and is currently in a relatively cold phase right now by supporting a looser Pacific Jet. Over the next two weeks, the MJO is expected to either be neutral or just slighty supportive of a colder North American phase. Meanwhile, teleconnection indices will move from supportive to only marginally supportive. This will allow the El Nino, which is off its high's for the season to become a bit more pronounced and allow for the possibility of a period of milder weather around the end of the month. Still no big thaw is expected and there still is a chance for another storm around the 27th to 29th of the month I think.
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