Hype for an east coast reached yet another fever pitch but it was as if many had forgotten the last 6 weeks. It is important to preface the following statement by saying that the European model and its ensembles have had many terrific calls and have many times pinned down specifics on some of the most important weather events in New England ahead of competing information. The last 6 weeks has been a complete abomination for the Euro however with several false alarms. In a year so devoid of snowfall in Vermont, crying wolf is certainly not going to win any hearts and minds.
Barring a miraculous turn of events in the 11th hour, the Sunday/Monday storm is a miss. Even the most optimistic scenario has the storm farther east by about 100 miles. The cape and even Boston could still receive some snowfall but much of New Hampshire and Vermont including the Green and White Mountains will receive next to nothing.
Chilly temperatures will still dominate the region and in fact may thwart the coming milder push of temperatures for a few days. Some snowfall is in fact possible on Tuesday and Wednesday across northern New England thanks to a nice overrunning zone established by the mild push of temperatures battling the existing cold weather. Snowfall accumulations could amount to a few inches before temperatures finally climb above freezing Thursday and perhaps reach the 50's on Friday.
Assuming nothing crazy happens, the blog will conclude with a seasonal wrap-up sometime next week before going into spring and summer mode.
Saturday, March 19, 2016
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Sunday-Monday storm still not likely but remains in play for now
Winter makes a multi day cameo appearance in a month that has been generally middle. Rain and snow showers later Thursday become snow showers Thursday night producing a few inches of accumulation across the high country. Friday will be a rare blustery, sub-freezing day along with a few flurries. Saturday is high and dry with temperatures topping out right around the freezing mark after starting out in the 5-10 range.
The potential storm is still in play. The European model suggests a decent sized storm close to 980 mb tracking just east of Cape Cod. Vermont would be on the western side of some heavy snow while portions of New Hampshire get clobbered with well over a foot. This is the best case scenario for Vermont and includes about a 6-12 inch snow late Sunday into early Monday. Other models have been and continue to be further off shore with this system and weaker as well. The European has been living in its own fantasy-land with many of these systems over the last month-plus so I am extremely reluctant to sell my soul to another one of its snowy solutions. That said, it does have some support from its ensemble members as of early Thursday morning so it remains worthy of watching.
Though cold weather will linger through Tuesday March 22nd, the pattern continues to look extremely mild from the 23rd to about the 30th of the month. This could include another 1, 2 maybe even 3 days of readings in the 60's in this stretch. Ensembles do show the build-up of a ridge along the west coast around March 31-April 1 and this could lead to an outbreak of colder weather around that time.
The potential storm is still in play. The European model suggests a decent sized storm close to 980 mb tracking just east of Cape Cod. Vermont would be on the western side of some heavy snow while portions of New Hampshire get clobbered with well over a foot. This is the best case scenario for Vermont and includes about a 6-12 inch snow late Sunday into early Monday. Other models have been and continue to be further off shore with this system and weaker as well. The European has been living in its own fantasy-land with many of these systems over the last month-plus so I am extremely reluctant to sell my soul to another one of its snowy solutions. That said, it does have some support from its ensemble members as of early Thursday morning so it remains worthy of watching.
Though cold weather will linger through Tuesday March 22nd, the pattern continues to look extremely mild from the 23rd to about the 30th of the month. This could include another 1, 2 maybe even 3 days of readings in the 60's in this stretch. Ensembles do show the build-up of a ridge along the west coast around March 31-April 1 and this could lead to an outbreak of colder weather around that time.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Winter is on life support but will try to make one big last gasp this weekend
To be perfectly frank, I am ready to put the 2015-2016 winter season in the rear view mirror. March however, is typically the best part of the MRG season and in many years is the snowiest of all the winter months in Vermont.
We are still in the midst of a stretch of milder weather which will persist through a good part of the week. With the help of some sunshine on Wednesday, temperatures might again make a run at the 60-degree mark but clouds and some rain very late in the day might thwart that effort. Cooler weather will begin to slowly work its way back into the region Thursday; in fact, leftover moisture might result some limited snow across the high terrain while light rain falls in the valley locations. Friday begins a limited multi-day stretch of colder weather, perhaps the last such stretch this month.
Though Friday and Saturday look dry along with temperatures just below the so called "normal" threshold, a storm system will try and organize during the weekend combining jet energy in the plains with southern branch moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. Whether or not this all comes together correctly remains a question but there is a decent chance for some sort of east coast event Sunday the 20th into Monday, March 21st. Yes, one of the scenarios does call for a decent interior New England hit. The storm system would lack the strength to be historic storm but could produce as much as 12-18 inches of snow. That would be the upside. The downside is another in a litany of misses for Vermont this year.
Cold weather will continue to grip the region through the 22nd but will give way to more mild weather for the last week of the month. The limited blocking that was supporting the cold weather around the Spring Equinox will deteriorate plus the jet in the Pacific is expected to tighten. The storm late this weekend may be the last chance for a significant taste of winter though as Eric at MRG said, stranger things have happened.
We are still in the midst of a stretch of milder weather which will persist through a good part of the week. With the help of some sunshine on Wednesday, temperatures might again make a run at the 60-degree mark but clouds and some rain very late in the day might thwart that effort. Cooler weather will begin to slowly work its way back into the region Thursday; in fact, leftover moisture might result some limited snow across the high terrain while light rain falls in the valley locations. Friday begins a limited multi-day stretch of colder weather, perhaps the last such stretch this month.
Though Friday and Saturday look dry along with temperatures just below the so called "normal" threshold, a storm system will try and organize during the weekend combining jet energy in the plains with southern branch moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. Whether or not this all comes together correctly remains a question but there is a decent chance for some sort of east coast event Sunday the 20th into Monday, March 21st. Yes, one of the scenarios does call for a decent interior New England hit. The storm system would lack the strength to be historic storm but could produce as much as 12-18 inches of snow. That would be the upside. The downside is another in a litany of misses for Vermont this year.
Cold weather will continue to grip the region through the 22nd but will give way to more mild weather for the last week of the month. The limited blocking that was supporting the cold weather around the Spring Equinox will deteriorate plus the jet in the Pacific is expected to tighten. The storm late this weekend may be the last chance for a significant taste of winter though as Eric at MRG said, stranger things have happened.
Monday, March 7, 2016
A mild and somewhat rainy upcoming two weeks still expected
Nothing new or exciting to report as of March 7th. Pattern is still poised to turn very warm and stay that way for a better part of the next two weeks. Readings might get close to the 60-degree mark across valley locations Wednesday with 50's across the high country. A front will drop south out of southern Canada late Wednesday and early Thursday bringing the chance for some light rain and temperatures that are less mild. Later on Thursday, a more organized wave of low pressure will move along that same boundary of temperatures and spread significant amounts of rain into northern New England later Thursday and Thursday night. It's ironic because this particular storm will take a relatively favorable track for snow but the pattern will have gotten so warm by late this week and available arctic air is so limited that the results, predictably, will be another swing and a miss. There is a chance that rain changes over to a period of snow across the high country early Friday leading to a wet accumulation, but that is after about an inch of rain.
The pattern does appear to want to return to normalcy around the time of March 20th. This is very late in the game however and lots of damage will have been done both from rain and from warm weather.
The pattern does appear to want to return to normalcy around the time of March 20th. This is very late in the game however and lots of damage will have been done both from rain and from warm weather.
Thursday, March 3, 2016
Winter to make a retreat and a reappearance is not on the horizon
It's going to be difficult to keep SCWB going barring a dramatic change in later March. The snow stake at Mt Mansfield illustrates the situation perfectly. It is right there with the worst winters going back to 1954 which spans 60 years. In 1980 and again in the Super Nino winter of 1983, the snow situation was similar, but both years featured snowy periods in March or early April salvaging some minimal dignity. This year appears to want to go the way of 1956-57, which after a awful December, January and February, faded completely in March. If anyone has the great Crosby Stills Nash and Young's live album - 4 Way Street, Neil Young introduces one of his songs by saying this - "Here is a new song guaranteed to bring you right down, its called 'Don't Let It Bring You Down'. It sorta starts out real slow and fizzles out all together." This describes the winter of 2015-2016 perfectly.
There is really no snow in the forecast over the next week and I am not sure it gets much better beyond that. One organized weather system will pass well to the regions south Friday. This means more snow for the Mid Atlantic, a region that has actually seen above normal snowfall this winter. Another much weaker system follows on its heels Saturday night into early Sunday but this too will pass well to the south of us and minimal if any snow is expected. The last of the cold weather from the present arctic intrusion will then vanish Monday and give way to thaw which is expected to persist for several days.
The European model remains a bit warmer than the American GFS model going forward but both models share in the belief that the thaw will mark a major retreat for the current winter season. Temperatures in the 60's are possible during the middle part of the week and although cooler weather is expected for the weekend, nothing categorically cold is expected (below normal temps) and snow is certainly not expected. It is possible for the pattern to take a dramatic turn in later March. Spring in New England is especially unpredictable and full of twists and turns but I would be surprised to see significant snow or cold of any kind through about St Patrick's Day which looks out about 2 weeks.
There is really no snow in the forecast over the next week and I am not sure it gets much better beyond that. One organized weather system will pass well to the regions south Friday. This means more snow for the Mid Atlantic, a region that has actually seen above normal snowfall this winter. Another much weaker system follows on its heels Saturday night into early Sunday but this too will pass well to the south of us and minimal if any snow is expected. The last of the cold weather from the present arctic intrusion will then vanish Monday and give way to thaw which is expected to persist for several days.
The European model remains a bit warmer than the American GFS model going forward but both models share in the belief that the thaw will mark a major retreat for the current winter season. Temperatures in the 60's are possible during the middle part of the week and although cooler weather is expected for the weekend, nothing categorically cold is expected (below normal temps) and snow is certainly not expected. It is possible for the pattern to take a dramatic turn in later March. Spring in New England is especially unpredictable and full of twists and turns but I would be surprised to see significant snow or cold of any kind through about St Patrick's Day which looks out about 2 weeks.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Wednesday's storm shifts slightly north again and the results are not especially exciting.
Another day and another potential storm makes a critical northward shift. Though with this upcoming Wednesday storm, the shift is not as dramatic, the consequences sing a familiar tune including less snow and more sleet and freezing rain. At least the mild weather Monday will give way to a stretch of subfreezing temperatures that should persist through the first full weekend in March. Beyond that, some troubling signs are emerging.
Here is the situation with Wednesday. The storm is a garden variety weather system which will organize Tuesday in the Ohio Valley and head northeastward. Like many of its predecessors, this is a storm that could have provided much of the Vermont ski country with a nice 8-14 but this was predicated on a storm track over central New England. Once again, the forecasted storm track has shifted slightly north so that the center of the storm moves over southern Vermont. It was a subtle and seemingly small shift but we had little room to play with as indicated in the last update. The result still includes a few inches of snow early Wednesday morning followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain around daybreak. The best precipitation with this storm however will be over Quebec and southeast Ontario. From the standpoint of snowfall, it is typically problematic to be too close to the center of central lowest pressure. In the parlance of "weather geek speak" it is the "shaft zone" but the simpler scientific description would be to call it the "dry slot". By midday Wednesday morning, I think much of central Vermont including MRG is precipitation-free. Later in the day, some minimal wrap around moisture could allow for some snowfall but I wouldn't expect much more than an inch. Overall the storm is another dud; 2-5 inches of snow and ice and more ice farther south and more snow farther north.
What is with these northward shifts, they are killing us ? No doubt. Actually sometimes the "northward shift" brings snowfall when we expect nothing. In early March 2001, there was a conventional wisdom in the forecasting community of a big snowstorm for the big east coast cities and partly cloudy for Vermont. 5 days later, northern Vermont was putting the finishing touches on a 50-70 inch dump. This year however, we have seemingly been the focal point for a bunch of argumentative weather situations and about lost every one. The ice-free and relatively warm Great Lakes has been a major problem here. They are pulling some of these weather systems northward and the models are having a tough time resolving all of this until very late in the forecasting game.
The end of the week we will be spat on as another Mid-Atlantic storm deposits snowfall well south of us. This storm could also make a northward jump late, and it may do so, but it would have to move about 300 miles farther north for Vermont to get the good snowfall. Instead, we are expecting dry and cold in the period beginning Thursday and ending Saturday. On Sunday, the polar jet, will start to recede but may deliver one last clipper system before doing to which could result in some snowfall though models don't agree on that as of yet.
What models do agree on now is a March thaw which will commence around March 8th and continue for several days. The European was teasing us with a total capitulation of winter for several days though it has backed off somewhat this morning. What seems likely is that winter makes a substantial retreat and the minimal Vermont snowpack is once again dented. It does seem possible that a stormier pattern emerges by the middle of March with a return to more seasonable temperatures around March 12th-14th but there are no indications of glaring cold weather support. The thaw should peak out around March 10th and 11th and could include readings in the 60's for a day or two.
Here is the situation with Wednesday. The storm is a garden variety weather system which will organize Tuesday in the Ohio Valley and head northeastward. Like many of its predecessors, this is a storm that could have provided much of the Vermont ski country with a nice 8-14 but this was predicated on a storm track over central New England. Once again, the forecasted storm track has shifted slightly north so that the center of the storm moves over southern Vermont. It was a subtle and seemingly small shift but we had little room to play with as indicated in the last update. The result still includes a few inches of snow early Wednesday morning followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain around daybreak. The best precipitation with this storm however will be over Quebec and southeast Ontario. From the standpoint of snowfall, it is typically problematic to be too close to the center of central lowest pressure. In the parlance of "weather geek speak" it is the "shaft zone" but the simpler scientific description would be to call it the "dry slot". By midday Wednesday morning, I think much of central Vermont including MRG is precipitation-free. Later in the day, some minimal wrap around moisture could allow for some snowfall but I wouldn't expect much more than an inch. Overall the storm is another dud; 2-5 inches of snow and ice and more ice farther south and more snow farther north.
What is with these northward shifts, they are killing us ? No doubt. Actually sometimes the "northward shift" brings snowfall when we expect nothing. In early March 2001, there was a conventional wisdom in the forecasting community of a big snowstorm for the big east coast cities and partly cloudy for Vermont. 5 days later, northern Vermont was putting the finishing touches on a 50-70 inch dump. This year however, we have seemingly been the focal point for a bunch of argumentative weather situations and about lost every one. The ice-free and relatively warm Great Lakes has been a major problem here. They are pulling some of these weather systems northward and the models are having a tough time resolving all of this until very late in the forecasting game.
The end of the week we will be spat on as another Mid-Atlantic storm deposits snowfall well south of us. This storm could also make a northward jump late, and it may do so, but it would have to move about 300 miles farther north for Vermont to get the good snowfall. Instead, we are expecting dry and cold in the period beginning Thursday and ending Saturday. On Sunday, the polar jet, will start to recede but may deliver one last clipper system before doing to which could result in some snowfall though models don't agree on that as of yet.
What models do agree on now is a March thaw which will commence around March 8th and continue for several days. The European was teasing us with a total capitulation of winter for several days though it has backed off somewhat this morning. What seems likely is that winter makes a substantial retreat and the minimal Vermont snowpack is once again dented. It does seem possible that a stormier pattern emerges by the middle of March with a return to more seasonable temperatures around March 12th-14th but there are no indications of glaring cold weather support. The thaw should peak out around March 10th and 11th and could include readings in the 60's for a day or two.
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Looking into March and our last chance to make something out of what has been very little
Friday was the 7th straight day of bad news so I decided to wait one extra day for an update. Finally on the 8th day some better news. "Better" is of course the more relative term as opposed to the categorical "good" or "great". "Better" in this case does mean some snow and an improved outlook for the later part of the upcoming week.
The northern most part of New England is perhaps the only place on the east coast to escape the thrust of milder weather which already encompasses most of the eastern seaboard. Mad River Glen interestingly, sits right on the boundary of winter and spring on Sunday. By the end of the day, temperatures will creep above the freezing mark but travel south 100 miles and readings will be way up in to the 50's. Travel north 50 miles and readings might stay in the 20's. There is some snow associated with the boundary and a garden variety storm system which is expected to travel too far to our north for any significant snows. Milder air does eventually push into the northern half of the state Monday and some brief period of rain is possible ahead of the approaching cold front early in the day.
The aforementioned boundary will continue to be the focal point for weather activity as the week progresses but it looks like, as of late Saturday, that this activity will be of the more frozen type. Cold weather pushes back into the region, just barely on Tuesday and a storm system will gather strength in the Ohio Valley and make a northeastward push. Once again, its close, one again, a slight northward shift and we get shafted yet again. As of now though the storm is projected to move from Pennsylvania to somewhere close to the New Hampshire seacoast. This track has the mountain mostly snow, perhaps one of the better ones of the year but I want to be careful here. This also is a garden variety system, we have mostly struck out on these as well this winter but we have a chance to score a decent 8-14 inch hit on this one but it's not etched in stone.
Cold air settles into the region late in the week allowing for a few days with potentially powdery surfaces. There is a formidable southern branch storm which threatens the Carolinas and portions of the Mid Atlantic Friday but looks to be another miss for New England. The weekend to follow simply looks dry and chilly to start and dry and seasonable to finish which in early March typically means that temperatures can sneak above the freezing mark during the afternoons.
There is dissension in the ranks of medium range models with how the weather plays out after March 8th. The European and it's ensembles is suggesting an all out capitulation and lots of spring-like warmth. We would lose all the support from the important teleconnection indices such as the AO and PNA and after a winter such as this, the season would be in dire straights. Both the Canadian and American ensembles agree on a gradual trend toward milder weather but keep some of the fundamentals supporting a cold pattern in place, including the AO and PNA. The European has struggled this winter and the MJO forecast of phases is relatively clear in its support for a weaker Pacific jet through about March 15th so I am inclined to think we can keep winter alive after the European is hypothetically killing it. Hard to be optimistic given our recent turn of events but I think that is a reasonable view based on data available right now.
The northern most part of New England is perhaps the only place on the east coast to escape the thrust of milder weather which already encompasses most of the eastern seaboard. Mad River Glen interestingly, sits right on the boundary of winter and spring on Sunday. By the end of the day, temperatures will creep above the freezing mark but travel south 100 miles and readings will be way up in to the 50's. Travel north 50 miles and readings might stay in the 20's. There is some snow associated with the boundary and a garden variety storm system which is expected to travel too far to our north for any significant snows. Milder air does eventually push into the northern half of the state Monday and some brief period of rain is possible ahead of the approaching cold front early in the day.
The aforementioned boundary will continue to be the focal point for weather activity as the week progresses but it looks like, as of late Saturday, that this activity will be of the more frozen type. Cold weather pushes back into the region, just barely on Tuesday and a storm system will gather strength in the Ohio Valley and make a northeastward push. Once again, its close, one again, a slight northward shift and we get shafted yet again. As of now though the storm is projected to move from Pennsylvania to somewhere close to the New Hampshire seacoast. This track has the mountain mostly snow, perhaps one of the better ones of the year but I want to be careful here. This also is a garden variety system, we have mostly struck out on these as well this winter but we have a chance to score a decent 8-14 inch hit on this one but it's not etched in stone.
Cold air settles into the region late in the week allowing for a few days with potentially powdery surfaces. There is a formidable southern branch storm which threatens the Carolinas and portions of the Mid Atlantic Friday but looks to be another miss for New England. The weekend to follow simply looks dry and chilly to start and dry and seasonable to finish which in early March typically means that temperatures can sneak above the freezing mark during the afternoons.
There is dissension in the ranks of medium range models with how the weather plays out after March 8th. The European and it's ensembles is suggesting an all out capitulation and lots of spring-like warmth. We would lose all the support from the important teleconnection indices such as the AO and PNA and after a winter such as this, the season would be in dire straights. Both the Canadian and American ensembles agree on a gradual trend toward milder weather but keep some of the fundamentals supporting a cold pattern in place, including the AO and PNA. The European has struggled this winter and the MJO forecast of phases is relatively clear in its support for a weaker Pacific jet through about March 15th so I am inclined to think we can keep winter alive after the European is hypothetically killing it. Hard to be optimistic given our recent turn of events but I think that is a reasonable view based on data available right now.
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