Wish the blog could start this way every year ! Though the month of December will begin on the mild side, a very decisive drop in the Arctic Oscillation index over the next week to ten days teamed with a large upper ridge in western North America (+PNA) should bring a December weather weather extravaganza for at least two weeks. We haven't seen a set up this good in December since 2010 and though it will be difficult to pinpoint the best days for "powder", we will get our share over what I expect to be a 2 week stretch of favorable weather beginning December 7th.
A series of rather "blah" days will kick off the month of December. Temperatures will remain mostly below freezing at night and get close to or slightly above freezing during the days. Sunshine will be limited and skiing in Vermont will likely be confined to the usual early season arteries. The early part of the first full week of December will feature a pattern poised to explode. Arctic air will enter the northern Plains and flood the Front Range corridor. As this happens milder air will make its way northward into interior New England. The entire state will likely see an extended almost 36 hour above-freezing stretch accompanied by a few hours of rain later Tuesday. When readings do finally fall back into the 20's late on Wednesday, it will begin what I expect to be a very long stretch of sub-freezing weather and a terrific opportunity to begin establishing what we hope to be a healthy 2017-2018 base.
Though we likely see some flurries late on Wednesday and more snow showers Thursday, significant snowfall might wait until at least at least the weekend before reaching the state. Relating to this upcoming cold pattern, the question relates whether or not we see much of a southern branch of the jet stream. The strength of the building La Nina suggests likely not. We will need a portion of the jet stream in the Pacific to undercut the large ridge in western North America and this kind of thing doesn't usually happen in La Nina years, at least not a lot. That said, we can still see plenty of fireworks along the Atlantic Coast and clipper systems galore. The unusually warm water situated in the Great Lakes and in Lake Champlain actually provide a rather exciting thermodynamic environment when the arctic air attacks. We might start slow, but we will see some terrain enhanced snow and substantial amounts of lake enhanced moisture. There are hints of something along the Atlantic coast during the weekend of the 9th or 10th. Though models were a bit more bearish as of late Thursday (Dec 30th), subsequent runs may very well show some activity and my guess is that our first few significant inches fall over that weekend and perhaps as early as Friday the 8th.
Re enforcing blasts of cold arrive in the December 10th-11th period and both cold and winter weather should dominate the ensuing week through what we hope to be opening weekend on the 16th/17th of the month. A significant storm is possible during this period though I expect that a good chunk of snow falls as a result of a series of smaller systems, clippers and lake and terrain enhanced snow. I'll take it anyway we can get it, should be a great start to the year !
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Monday, November 27, 2017
Lots of analysis, optimism and excited anticipation for 2017-2018, but at the end of it all, temperatures and snow shouldn't be too far from normal
Hope everyone enjoyed their thanksgiving festivities and with those in the rearview mirror, our collective attention turns to ski season and the blog thus returns for another season of prognostications. Those of us following the meteorological world have been watching a few critical variables the last month or so such as a building La Nina, a seemingly non-committal Pacific Decadal Oscillation and an Arctic Oscillation that seems to be very resistant to "negative" behavior. The unrelenting blowtorch that consumed much of later September and all of October generated plenty of consternation but there are reasons for optimism, perhaps not the glowing variety, but enough to expect a fairly solid season in the months ahead.
The state of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is always at the top of our radar going into a winter season. There are times when the ENSO retreats to relative neutrality, mitigating the impact it might have over a winter and elevating other variables to greater importance. The 2015-2016 situation presented the opposite scenario when a super strong El Nino, a "Super Nino", sucked all the air out of the room and in that particular case, the snow and the cold with it.
In the last several weeks, we have witnessed the ENSO take on a very La Nina look. This wasn't forecast a few months ago proving yet again how challenging it can be to forecast SST trends in the equatorial Pacific. As of early September, the ENSO had really yet to reveal itself but but in the last two months we have seen a decisive trend toward La Nina and in the last two weeks the Nino 3-4 which makes up a broad area of the equatorial Pacific from 120 to 170 west longitude has cooled to 1.1 C below average.
Seasonal SST Animations
A "-1.1 C" La Nina might not be the strongest La Nina, but it's nonetheless significant. If it holds at this level through the winter it will undoubtedly play a role on the weather in eastern North America. In Vermont, we have seen La Nina winter's go both ways. We have seen some huge snow years such as 1970-1971 and 2010-2011 and we have also witnessed some catestrophic seasons such as 1988-89 and 2011-2012. There are obviously several in between. La Nina's produce several obvious impacts such as wet and unsettled weather in the Pacific Northwest and dry and mild weather in the southeast United States. Every inch of latitude is critical, much like it was last winter, for a successful winter weather season. The Mid-Atlantic ski areas in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and West Virginia will likely have another challenging year. Farther north however, the season could go either way and given how some of the other variables evolving as of late November, I am inclined to think that our 44 N latitude will serve us quite well, much like it did last year.
The Pacific-Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a relationship though not a perfect one with the ENSO. The PDO describes the configuration of sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitude Pacific as opposed to the equatorial Pacific and is thus even broader than the ENSO. Rather than explain it further (which I have done in prior years), I'll just provide a link with showing the various positive and negative phases.
PDO Information and phases
I'll note that negative phases have an association with La Nina winters while positive phases often go with El Nino. Though the relationship exists, it is chaotic and a statistical nightmare to try and pin down. The positive PDO was close to a record during the winter of 2014-2015 yet the ENSO was neutral. During that winter, the nature of the PDO was a dominant driver of some of the repeated and particularly intense outbreaks of cold in February.
The PDO has been very non-committal during the autumn months of 2017. The last negative month was December 2013 and though we've gotten pretty close as of October, we haven't quite crossed the "zero" threshold. Whether or not we can turn the PDO negative, it is encouraging to see the PDO index neutral in a "relative" sense. The terrible winters of 1988-89, 1999-2000, and 2011-2012 all had decisively negative PDO's parlayed with significant La Nina's. 2010-2011 featured a positive PDO and was a terrific snow year. The verdict will come in the form of the EPO personality. In the common SWCB tongue, it refers to the prevalence or absence of the "evil empire".
There is one more important element related to the PDO that I did not want to neglect. In the preseason outlook questionnaire that I did for Vermont Ski and Ride magazine I had expressed some concern about a strengthening blob of anomalous ocean warmth in the western Bering Sea and across the Sea of Okhotsk north of Japan. Though somewhat associated with a more positive PDO, the position of this large area of warm water was disconcerting since it was broad enough to potentially tighten the jet stream in the eastern Pacific and discourage ridging in western North America (positive PNA patterns). One could attribute, though not conclusively, the unrelenting blowtorch in October to this Pacific SST configuration. If this area of warmth had maintained its strength through November, it would have profoundly changed the mood of this outlook; fortunately, the area of warmth vanished in a matter of a few weeks. Be it by consequence or by coincidence, the blowtorch ended and November has actually felt like November and a large portion of the month was actually "below normal" in Vermont.
Moving on from our PDO discussion gets us to talk of snowcover expansion. I like to keep this analysis very global or at least hemispheric in nature and though I view snowcover as an important leading indicator, I understand that there are those that don't share that view. With Twitter weather personalities exploding, I have seen the debate over snowcover expansion and its relevance in seasonal forecasting play out visibly on social media. We've had healthy build ups of October/November snow in each of the last 6 years including the last two which preceded mild winters. This has fueled some of the skepticism but proponents of the data such as myself would never argue or attempt to over exaggerate its significance; in fact, I try and make a point to talk it down.
2017 21.17
2016 22.95
2015 21.40
2014 22.88
2013 21.01
2012 20.14
2011 17.34
Average: 18.40
Though ice cover is outpacing 2016 by a significant amount, it continues to run well below average. This is associated with the very discernible long-term trend of receding northern hemispheric arctic sea ice. The interactive sea ice graph (linked below) is one of the most visible displays of the ice retreat. Click on years 40 years ago and compare them to recent years. This kind of trend is scary as its occurring over an incredibly short period of geological time. To say it's an accident or naturally occurring is simply not a reasonable assertion though I wish it were true.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
As for the upcoming winter, the healthy expansion of snow in the Northern Hemisphere bodes well the pooling of arctic air masses. It is my belief that the greater the coverage of snow and ice, the greater the ability of arctic air to strengthen efficiently. Speaking slightly more locally, the Hudson Bay is 25-35 percent frozen as of late November which is normal historically speaking but pretty good relative to the last decade. Though the Great Lakes aggregate remains quite warm as a result of the warm fall, the recent stretch of cold has at least chilling down these bodies of water.
Last but not least is our annual examination of "atmospheric tells" with "tells" being poker lingo.This really saved the outlook from going astray last year when there were several bullish indicators suggesting it might be pretty cold yet I suggested, correctly as it turned out, it would be mild. This is not meant to be self-promotional, I busted substantially on snowfall during the Super Nino and I am still trying to figure out how I could have been so blindly optimistic. In spite of some bullish data last autumn, the mild weather during the summer and fall was so persistent and below average temperatures of any significance were so hard to sustain or even achieve that forecasting cold was statistically maniacal. Don't weather patterns change or constantly evolve ? Absolutely. That said, the weather across Vermont and in many other places will exhibit similar patterns of behavior over the course of a season and multiple seasons and such patterns can be foreshadowed in October and November. The back half of 2016 featured a persistently positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) that broke briefly in October (although with very little cold across the continental U.S.) but continued through the winter of 2016-2017. The mild weather ravaged ski seasons from Colorado to the Mid Atlantic during February of this past year and though Vermont also got a big thaw, we were fortunate enough to score big on March snow to save the season.
For much of the last two calendar years, mild air has dominated the U.S. and eastern Canada. 2015-2016 can certainly be attributed to the Super Nino while much of the last year can be associated with the persistently positive AO. The pattern of mild weather has in recent months been somewhat broken. We saw a widespread outbreak of cooler temperatures and a negative AO in August across a wide swatch of the continent. A ferocious blowtorch returned for late September and October but has been broken again in November and so has the positive AO. I'll discuss the shorter term outlook in more detail in a subsequent post but after some mild weather in early December, the northern latitudes look impressively blocked and quite favorable for both colder weather and snow. This is very different behavior relative to the last two years. It may not be enough for me to forecast a cold winter relative to "normal" but certainly colder than the last two seasons by a noticeable amount.
So to summarize, I am cautiously optimistic about the upcoming season. For the third consecutive season, I would have to say temperatures come out on the "above" side of average though not by much and I expect a noticeably colder difference relative to the past two seasons. The strengthening La Nina is a substantial concern as of this posting. If it gets much stronger, we will be dealing with a significant ENSO season and a ridge across the southeast United States could be an overwhelming feature in the weather pattern. Even if we see a relatively stable but moderate La Nina going forward, thaws are still going to be a problem and longer 6-8 stretches of favorable skiing will be unlikely. Our latitude plus what I assume to be the prevalence of arctic air at our latitude should help us immensely on snowfall. In short, I think we perform somewhat similarly to last year on snow, slightly above average, but both ice, periodic rain events and thaws should be expected. I would be surprised if see another thaw consume 3-4 weeks of the winter as it did last February into early March. I'll have an update on the shorter term within a few days. We have some milder weather to get through in early December but the blocking in the weather pattern discussed above should bring winter to Vermont, perhaps in a big way by December 10th making that December 16th potential opening a reality ! Think snow and as always, it's good to be back !
The state of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is always at the top of our radar going into a winter season. There are times when the ENSO retreats to relative neutrality, mitigating the impact it might have over a winter and elevating other variables to greater importance. The 2015-2016 situation presented the opposite scenario when a super strong El Nino, a "Super Nino", sucked all the air out of the room and in that particular case, the snow and the cold with it.
In the last several weeks, we have witnessed the ENSO take on a very La Nina look. This wasn't forecast a few months ago proving yet again how challenging it can be to forecast SST trends in the equatorial Pacific. As of early September, the ENSO had really yet to reveal itself but but in the last two months we have seen a decisive trend toward La Nina and in the last two weeks the Nino 3-4 which makes up a broad area of the equatorial Pacific from 120 to 170 west longitude has cooled to 1.1 C below average.
Seasonal SST Animations
A "-1.1 C" La Nina might not be the strongest La Nina, but it's nonetheless significant. If it holds at this level through the winter it will undoubtedly play a role on the weather in eastern North America. In Vermont, we have seen La Nina winter's go both ways. We have seen some huge snow years such as 1970-1971 and 2010-2011 and we have also witnessed some catestrophic seasons such as 1988-89 and 2011-2012. There are obviously several in between. La Nina's produce several obvious impacts such as wet and unsettled weather in the Pacific Northwest and dry and mild weather in the southeast United States. Every inch of latitude is critical, much like it was last winter, for a successful winter weather season. The Mid-Atlantic ski areas in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and West Virginia will likely have another challenging year. Farther north however, the season could go either way and given how some of the other variables evolving as of late November, I am inclined to think that our 44 N latitude will serve us quite well, much like it did last year.
The Pacific-Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a relationship though not a perfect one with the ENSO. The PDO describes the configuration of sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitude Pacific as opposed to the equatorial Pacific and is thus even broader than the ENSO. Rather than explain it further (which I have done in prior years), I'll just provide a link with showing the various positive and negative phases.
PDO Information and phases
I'll note that negative phases have an association with La Nina winters while positive phases often go with El Nino. Though the relationship exists, it is chaotic and a statistical nightmare to try and pin down. The positive PDO was close to a record during the winter of 2014-2015 yet the ENSO was neutral. During that winter, the nature of the PDO was a dominant driver of some of the repeated and particularly intense outbreaks of cold in February.
The PDO has been very non-committal during the autumn months of 2017. The last negative month was December 2013 and though we've gotten pretty close as of October, we haven't quite crossed the "zero" threshold. Whether or not we can turn the PDO negative, it is encouraging to see the PDO index neutral in a "relative" sense. The terrible winters of 1988-89, 1999-2000, and 2011-2012 all had decisively negative PDO's parlayed with significant La Nina's. 2010-2011 featured a positive PDO and was a terrific snow year. The verdict will come in the form of the EPO personality. In the common SWCB tongue, it refers to the prevalence or absence of the "evil empire".
There is one more important element related to the PDO that I did not want to neglect. In the preseason outlook questionnaire that I did for Vermont Ski and Ride magazine I had expressed some concern about a strengthening blob of anomalous ocean warmth in the western Bering Sea and across the Sea of Okhotsk north of Japan. Though somewhat associated with a more positive PDO, the position of this large area of warm water was disconcerting since it was broad enough to potentially tighten the jet stream in the eastern Pacific and discourage ridging in western North America (positive PNA patterns). One could attribute, though not conclusively, the unrelenting blowtorch in October to this Pacific SST configuration. If this area of warmth had maintained its strength through November, it would have profoundly changed the mood of this outlook; fortunately, the area of warmth vanished in a matter of a few weeks. Be it by consequence or by coincidence, the blowtorch ended and November has actually felt like November and a large portion of the month was actually "below normal" in Vermont.
Moving on from our PDO discussion gets us to talk of snowcover expansion. I like to keep this analysis very global or at least hemispheric in nature and though I view snowcover as an important leading indicator, I understand that there are those that don't share that view. With Twitter weather personalities exploding, I have seen the debate over snowcover expansion and its relevance in seasonal forecasting play out visibly on social media. We've had healthy build ups of October/November snow in each of the last 6 years including the last two which preceded mild winters. This has fueled some of the skepticism but proponents of the data such as myself would never argue or attempt to over exaggerate its significance; in fact, I try and make a point to talk it down.
2017 21.17
2016 22.95
2015 21.40
2014 22.88
2013 21.01
2012 20.14
2011 17.34
Average: 18.40
Though ice cover is outpacing 2016 by a significant amount, it continues to run well below average. This is associated with the very discernible long-term trend of receding northern hemispheric arctic sea ice. The interactive sea ice graph (linked below) is one of the most visible displays of the ice retreat. Click on years 40 years ago and compare them to recent years. This kind of trend is scary as its occurring over an incredibly short period of geological time. To say it's an accident or naturally occurring is simply not a reasonable assertion though I wish it were true.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
As for the upcoming winter, the healthy expansion of snow in the Northern Hemisphere bodes well the pooling of arctic air masses. It is my belief that the greater the coverage of snow and ice, the greater the ability of arctic air to strengthen efficiently. Speaking slightly more locally, the Hudson Bay is 25-35 percent frozen as of late November which is normal historically speaking but pretty good relative to the last decade. Though the Great Lakes aggregate remains quite warm as a result of the warm fall, the recent stretch of cold has at least chilling down these bodies of water.
Last but not least is our annual examination of "atmospheric tells" with "tells" being poker lingo.This really saved the outlook from going astray last year when there were several bullish indicators suggesting it might be pretty cold yet I suggested, correctly as it turned out, it would be mild. This is not meant to be self-promotional, I busted substantially on snowfall during the Super Nino and I am still trying to figure out how I could have been so blindly optimistic. In spite of some bullish data last autumn, the mild weather during the summer and fall was so persistent and below average temperatures of any significance were so hard to sustain or even achieve that forecasting cold was statistically maniacal. Don't weather patterns change or constantly evolve ? Absolutely. That said, the weather across Vermont and in many other places will exhibit similar patterns of behavior over the course of a season and multiple seasons and such patterns can be foreshadowed in October and November. The back half of 2016 featured a persistently positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) that broke briefly in October (although with very little cold across the continental U.S.) but continued through the winter of 2016-2017. The mild weather ravaged ski seasons from Colorado to the Mid Atlantic during February of this past year and though Vermont also got a big thaw, we were fortunate enough to score big on March snow to save the season.
For much of the last two calendar years, mild air has dominated the U.S. and eastern Canada. 2015-2016 can certainly be attributed to the Super Nino while much of the last year can be associated with the persistently positive AO. The pattern of mild weather has in recent months been somewhat broken. We saw a widespread outbreak of cooler temperatures and a negative AO in August across a wide swatch of the continent. A ferocious blowtorch returned for late September and October but has been broken again in November and so has the positive AO. I'll discuss the shorter term outlook in more detail in a subsequent post but after some mild weather in early December, the northern latitudes look impressively blocked and quite favorable for both colder weather and snow. This is very different behavior relative to the last two years. It may not be enough for me to forecast a cold winter relative to "normal" but certainly colder than the last two seasons by a noticeable amount.
So to summarize, I am cautiously optimistic about the upcoming season. For the third consecutive season, I would have to say temperatures come out on the "above" side of average though not by much and I expect a noticeably colder difference relative to the past two seasons. The strengthening La Nina is a substantial concern as of this posting. If it gets much stronger, we will be dealing with a significant ENSO season and a ridge across the southeast United States could be an overwhelming feature in the weather pattern. Even if we see a relatively stable but moderate La Nina going forward, thaws are still going to be a problem and longer 6-8 stretches of favorable skiing will be unlikely. Our latitude plus what I assume to be the prevalence of arctic air at our latitude should help us immensely on snowfall. In short, I think we perform somewhat similarly to last year on snow, slightly above average, but both ice, periodic rain events and thaws should be expected. I would be surprised if see another thaw consume 3-4 weeks of the winter as it did last February into early March. I'll have an update on the shorter term within a few days. We have some milder weather to get through in early December but the blocking in the weather pattern discussed above should bring winter to Vermont, perhaps in a big way by December 10th making that December 16th potential opening a reality ! Think snow and as always, it's good to be back !
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
Winter 2016-17: A fun ride that at times made us a little nausious
Another season in the books and what a ride it was. A little bit of frustration, a little bit of elation and though certainly not a winter for the ages, we came out alright in the end. The bar was set very low following the Super Nino catastrophe of 2015-2016 and although we tasted some of the same pain that was inflicted upon us in that winter, 2016-17 turned out to be very different and certainly much better. The biggest difference was the elimination of the dreaded snow hole which terrorized Vermont skiers during 2015-16. Vermont was in fact, one of the best places to be for snowfall in the northeast receiving a healthy share of storms and we were reintroduced to a nearly forgotten concept of the Champlain enhanced terrain induced snowfall. I mean, I myself had about forgotten all the pleasures of living in the mountains downwind of Lake Champlain and all of ski country benefited copiously.
The traditional winter ski season at MRG stretches 17-18 weeks starting in early to mid December and ending in early to mid April. During most of this span we were dealing with some pretty tough headwinds. The prevailing pattern was, for a majority of the winter season pretty lousy and temperatures were almost as mild as last season once you crunch all the numbers. For 8 of those weeks, the skiing was incredible. We had two weeks in December, 3 spanning the period in late January into the first half of February and another 3 during the month of March into April fools day. Even during those interludes of terrific winter weather, it wasn’t especially cold except for isolated stretches of a few days. In March, we finally recorded a below normal temperatures month which was the first in two years (during the winter) and remarkably, actual temperatures were lower than February, an occurrence that happens perhaps once in 75 years. For those 8 weeks though , we really brought it. Of the nearly 250 inches of snow that fell this year on MRG, three quarters of it fell in that consolidated stretch.
Going into December, just knowing that we had the Super Nino quashed was reason for optimism. Still the inability to sustain below normal temperatures through the summer and fall in any material way was a legitimate concern and was expressed as such in the preseason outlook. This tendency in fact, held through much of the winter largely because of the Arctic Oscillation which maintained a positive index for over 80 percent of the season. The Arctic Oscillation isn't the be all end all of teleconnection indices but from a big picture standpoint, it is the best overall measure of blocking in the jet stream at high latitudes. It is after all, the blocking, which is the best way to sustain cold across the middle latitude climates. Vermont can still can get cold without it and we did in several instances, but the winter as a whole was very mild and the mainly positive AO would be the culprit before anything else. Without the AO we were dependent on a loose jet in the Pacific and a positive Pacific-North American or PNA index which we only received intermittently. The pattern was in generally speaking dominated by zonal flow and lots of storminess in the Pacific, especially in California. The Lake Tahoe ski resorts think they might be skiing until the 4th of July thanks to the nearly 500 inches of snow that fell over the resorts this winter. The glory in the Sierra Nevada high country however proved to painful for ski areas south of 40 N latitude in eastern North America who suffered through long stretches of mild weather and received very little snowfall the few times it was cold. Vermont faired much better and benefited from the personality of the winter which consisted of more snowfall the farther north you went.
By the first week in December, we knew that our winter would not go the way of 2015-2016. A large blocking feature emerged in the Bering Sea and a relatively tight jet in the Pacific loosened considerably. Snowfall came almost instantly and much of it was the terrain induced variety from Lake Champlain. By December 10th we were blanketed with over 3 feet of relatively fluffy snowfall and were immersed in a elongated stretches of sub-freezing temperatures. It proved to be one of the better such stretches of the season amazingly which is unusual for December. Most of the Vermont ski country was opened for business early in December and Mad River followed with an opening on the 2nd full weekend of the month. The cold air associated with the Bering sea block peaked around December 16th with an airmass that brought temperatures on Mt Washington to –35 F, one of the coldest readings I have seen there in several years. The large Bering Sea block which was the catalyst behind that nice stretch of December weather broke down by the Winter Solstice and at no point during the rest of the winter did we see a large blocking feature of the same magnitude. Rain and ice arrived by the 18th of the month and most of the holiday period was spent in a defensive posture, while snow piled up across the west.
Mild weather continued into the first few days of 2017 and was followed by a widespread outbreak of cold between January 5th and 9th that somewhat snuck up on eastern North America. The absence of any jet stream blocking feature allowed the cold to escape rather quickly before snow of any significance reinvigorated the rather "crusty" conditions. The middle of January didn't feature record warmth but the pattern was dominated by a zonal flow and a powerful Pacific Jet that unloaded an amazing amount of snow on the Sierra Nevada range and other parts of the intermountain west. MRG stayed open and was dangling by a thread for several days during the middle of the month yet maintained a relatively healthy base above 3000 feet that proved useful as time went along. One of the more significant precipitation producing storms of the month impacted the region around the time of the 23rd 24th of Jan. Temperature profiles were marginal and in the end, the mountain ended up receiving several inches of sleet. It was a disappointing result but it laid the foundation for what became an outstanding stretch of winter. It began Thursday the 26th with an elevation snowfall that yielded 6-8 inches and this was followed 5 more inches of the Champlain stuff Friday night and several more inches during the weekend.
The first two weeks of February featured a weakened Pacific Jet, a tenuous ridge in western North America and some of the best skiing of the year in Vermont. The snow piled up rather impressively, not all at once but in several 5-10 powder days. We had a brief several hour period of rain on February 8th but aside from that, the first 17 days of February stayed below freezing and the snow was plentiful. Adding the last few days of January into this 3 week stretch, the mountain received 5 feet of snow between January 26th and February 16th and I remember the mountain declaring for the first time in 2 years "We are 100 percent open"! The best storm in that stretch came February 12th and 13th which was roughly an 18 incher. We got side swiped by another storm later in the week that provided another 6-10 inches and made for some terrific skiing for the first part of the President's Day holiday. Ominous signs loomed however and though I certainly suggested some rough times ahead, I totally underestimated how incredibly bad it became.
The last 10 days of February is often when some of the best skiing is there to be had at MRG. By February 11th , it certainly appeared that the holiday week following President's Day would not feature such conditions. In spite of this, the mild weather appeared like it would be somewhat short lived and ultimately replaced by a more productive pattern to close out the month. What happened was a complete abomination. Some mild weather around President's Day proved only to foreshadow a catastrophically warm period that began on the 21st. Lingering arctic air in Quebec or even a layer of cloudiness couldn’t save us. Mild air fully enveloped the region and not only was every day above freezing, it blew away expectations. Temperatures on the mountain exceeded 50 on 5 different days and when combined with the wind and the heavy rain on the 25th, our deep snow was obliterated.
March 1st featured temperatures 30 above normal and there was legitimate "nail in the coffin" fear. There was the promise of a much more favorable pattern but a very dismissive form of cynicism emanated from the Mad River Glen community. Temperatures were 25 below normal on March 4th but accompanied by plenty of bare ground ! A potential storm during the middle of the first full week of March turned into another mini washout and this was followed by one of the most intense blasts of arctic air of the season March 11th accompanied again by hardly any snow ! At this point however we had our eyes gazed at a storm system poised to blast the northeast corridor with winter weather. It was apparent the storm would be a substantial event quite early and furthermore MRG was certainly in position to be on the receiving end of some of the goodies. That said, models suggested a bigger hit in coastal cities and even an 8-14 inch storm could have fallen short of what was needed to reopen the mountain for business. The SCWB fumbled the football a bit on the intensity of the February thaw, but remained a believer in the potential of the pattern in March and the possibility of getting "bullseyed" by the March 14th event. It was "Game of Thrones" style drama, season 6 to be specific since the rest of the seasons had crap endings. With time winding down on the clock, models shifted the track of the storm 100 miles west and just like that we were free to fly. The March 14th storm started right at daybreak, slammed the Green Mountains with 3 inch an hour snowfall rates during the evening and continued right through March 15 enabling MRG to score 30-plus inches. It certainly ranked as one of the best since the inception of the blog back in 2004. Cold weather continued for several days in the wake of the storm and allowed for skiing enjoyment into the ensuing weekend. Additional snow and another arctic blast around March 22 provided an additional powdery window.
Temperatures warmed somewhat during the last few days of March and into the first full week of April. The snow was slow to melt however and allowed for skiable terrain until the weekend of April 8th and 9th. By the end of the season, snowfall in most areas, particularly in the high country, was above average and I know a few hearty souls continue to make turns with the cornhorn firmly in hand as of late April. I know there were some rough times, but I'll take a winter like this over a few other the blog has presided over. A highly favorable pattern never really seemed to materialize but the marginally favorable ones allowed for 7-8 incredible weeks. Hopefully we can achieve the same type of success in terms of snowfall next season but without the prolonged interruptions. Enjoy the summer folks and sorry for the delay !
Tuesday, April 4, 2017
Big storm Thursday/Friday is lots of rain with some elevation snow on back end
Winter continues to hold a very tenuous grip on Vermont and across the high country, the snow pack is very close to the seasonal peak. Though the state got a good dousing of rain on Tuesday, temperatures held in the mid 30's and there were a few reports of snowfall above 2500 feet. So yes, the melt and the mud is certainly on, but the melting has been slower the first few April than it was the last few days of February.
I can't speak for what the folks at Mad River Glen plan to do operationally speaking this weekend and we are watching for the impact of a potentially big storm. With that said, I'll discuss the storm and make this the last forecasting blog post of the season and follow this up with the traditional seasonal wrap-up sometime next week.
The storm in question has already deposited snow across the southern Rocky Mountains and much of the front range and high plains as far south as Texas. This giant piece of jet stream energy will churn its way northeast and an influx of gulf moisture and convective fireworks will help the storm continue to intensify as it heads toward the eastern Great Lakes. Unfortunately, the storm is amplifying just a little early than what we would consider preferable and is also tracking north and west of what we would consider preferable. The ideal spot for snowfall will thus be the northern lower peninsula of Michigan and a swatch of southeast Ontario. The storm will reach a peak intensity as it approaches Vermont early Friday but will then occlude and gradually weaken as it slowly moves along the Canadian border toward the Canadian Maritimes by late on Sunday. Vermont is in a position to get another giant swatch of moisture from this weather system, just the wrong kind of moisture. Precipitation will arrive as rain during the morning on Thursday and continue into the early evening falling at an occasionally heavy intensity. The close proximity of the low pressure center late Thursday will likely allow a dry slot end the precipitation later Thursday evening and allow much of Thursday night to be dry. It is possible that the heavy rainfall, 40 degree temperatures and snow-melt will allow for some flooding and I am relatively confident we will hear something to that effect from the National Weather Service in Burlington. Colder air will infiltrate the region by Friday morning but temperatures will be very marginal and less than marginal for a time across the valley locations. Snow showers should begin across the high country during the middle part of the day but this precipitation is likely to be only sprinkles or light rain showers in the valley spots. The snow showers should intensify Friday night and we should see an accumulation above 1500 feet. By Saturday morning, we can expect a few gloppy inches at the base and 4-8 inches above the mid-station. The amounts and snow consistency will be extremely elevation sensitive as they almost are during any big storm occlusion. Close to the summits of the Green Mountains, the snow could be powdery in nature but below 3,000 feet this might be tough to pull off.
Flurries and snow showers will continue through a good part of Saturday followed by clearing Saturday night and lots of April sunshine Sunday. This will mark a big, albeit temporary, turn in the weather. Sunshine will help Sunday's temperatures reach the 50's but the mild weather will explode onto the scene for early next week. Valley locations could see temperatures as high as 70 either Monday or Tuesday (you heard it hear first because my smartphone is not saying that yet !). Enjoy those last few turns and thanks for all the comments good and bad with the prior post. All the contributions are always appreciated.
I can't speak for what the folks at Mad River Glen plan to do operationally speaking this weekend and we are watching for the impact of a potentially big storm. With that said, I'll discuss the storm and make this the last forecasting blog post of the season and follow this up with the traditional seasonal wrap-up sometime next week.
The storm in question has already deposited snow across the southern Rocky Mountains and much of the front range and high plains as far south as Texas. This giant piece of jet stream energy will churn its way northeast and an influx of gulf moisture and convective fireworks will help the storm continue to intensify as it heads toward the eastern Great Lakes. Unfortunately, the storm is amplifying just a little early than what we would consider preferable and is also tracking north and west of what we would consider preferable. The ideal spot for snowfall will thus be the northern lower peninsula of Michigan and a swatch of southeast Ontario. The storm will reach a peak intensity as it approaches Vermont early Friday but will then occlude and gradually weaken as it slowly moves along the Canadian border toward the Canadian Maritimes by late on Sunday. Vermont is in a position to get another giant swatch of moisture from this weather system, just the wrong kind of moisture. Precipitation will arrive as rain during the morning on Thursday and continue into the early evening falling at an occasionally heavy intensity. The close proximity of the low pressure center late Thursday will likely allow a dry slot end the precipitation later Thursday evening and allow much of Thursday night to be dry. It is possible that the heavy rainfall, 40 degree temperatures and snow-melt will allow for some flooding and I am relatively confident we will hear something to that effect from the National Weather Service in Burlington. Colder air will infiltrate the region by Friday morning but temperatures will be very marginal and less than marginal for a time across the valley locations. Snow showers should begin across the high country during the middle part of the day but this precipitation is likely to be only sprinkles or light rain showers in the valley spots. The snow showers should intensify Friday night and we should see an accumulation above 1500 feet. By Saturday morning, we can expect a few gloppy inches at the base and 4-8 inches above the mid-station. The amounts and snow consistency will be extremely elevation sensitive as they almost are during any big storm occlusion. Close to the summits of the Green Mountains, the snow could be powdery in nature but below 3,000 feet this might be tough to pull off.
Flurries and snow showers will continue through a good part of Saturday followed by clearing Saturday night and lots of April sunshine Sunday. This will mark a big, albeit temporary, turn in the weather. Sunshine will help Sunday's temperatures reach the 50's but the mild weather will explode onto the scene for early next week. Valley locations could see temperatures as high as 70 either Monday or Tuesday (you heard it hear first because my smartphone is not saying that yet !). Enjoy those last few turns and thanks for all the comments good and bad with the prior post. All the contributions are always appreciated.
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
April Fools snow, a colder outlook and other rantings
It's no April Fools joke though it would might make for a good one. A March that started with excessive 60-degree warmth will finish with snowfall. Above 3,000 feet, the snow consistency might even be more powdery than wet although this remains a close call. Since last we spoke, indications are that the storm in question will track closer to the Mason-Dixon line as opposed to the Delmarva Peninsula. This places Vermont in a decidedly better place for moisture which should arrive during the morning hours Friday. Temperatures will be in the marginal category throughout the duration of this storm and will likely hover above the freezing mark in the valley locations which include a chunk of the Rte 100 corridor and the Champlain Valley. The MRG base should see temperatures at or just below the freezing mark while readings at the summit will in the high 20's. The heaviest snow is indicated to fall during the evening hours Friday and although snowfall rates will lessen after midnight, the snow itself should continue into Saturday morning. Those looking for those first April tracks Saturday have the best chance at finding the high elevation powder, 8-12 inches of it in fact above the mid-station. Closer to the base, I would expect a 4-8 inch range and a considerably wetter snow consistency. Saturday's temps will likely cross the freezing threshold at the base and may approach that mark higher up the mountain so the powdery stuff could turn wetter as the day moves along.
The outlook beyond Saturday has shifted decisively to the colder side. Though we are not expecting weather conditions to be particularly anomalous, the outlook from a few days ago did suggest a period of warmer weather and even some rain during the middle of next week. Models have taken all of that weather and pushed it south and with pretty good agreement. Weak Canadian high pressure will thus build across the region after the snow tapers off on Saturday and ensure that almost all of our overnight during the first 5 or so days of April are below freezing. Daytime temperatures, thanks to the rising April sun angle, are likely to reach the 40's Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. I might point out that there are indications of another notable east coast system that is now indicated impact areas south of Vermont Tuesday but this remains a week away and indications can change. Atmospheric conditions (at least at the tropospheric level) will be at their warmest during the middle of the week so I am fine with a "miss" on the aforementioned storm; in addition, there is plenty of intrigue for the end of the week when the set up is considerably better.
At jet stream level, there is some substantial ridging that is expected to develop late next week across Alaska and the Yukon territory of Canada. Underneath all of this, storminess will continue to cross the country and keep the weather across the United States very active from coast to coast. There's quite a bit of fun that can emerge in this type of set up across New England and the period surrounding April 6th and 7th is one that we should watch closely. A little spark from what's left of the polar jet and we could talking about another mammoth east coast system and more Vermont snow. Hey when the pattern produces, it produces, and though it might have been better served in late February, I'll take it anyway I can get it.
I'll finish with a rant directed at the proverbial toxic stink that has enveloped much of our elected US government and specifically the group that has over generously anointed themselves the "House Committee on Science, Space and Technology". These folks had a hearing on Wednesday, March 29th where the apparent plan was to hijack the overwhelmingly accepted consensus on climate science and make its defacto leader, Dr Michael Mann, look like a jackass. Dr Mann, agree with him or not, comes prepared and is generally ready for attacks from all directions and he got them from the assortment of climate science skeptics that the committee selectively invited. Dr Mann represented himself well and his arguments were well supported but I can't emphasize enough what a dog and pony show this turned into. Just imagine if a John Q Weather Forecasting Blogger such as myself examining forecast data, 97 percent of which indicated "partly cloudy", decided to spend 4 paragraphs talking about a 10-plus inches of snow that 3 percent of the forecast data is showing. I guarantee a few readers would fall in love with me for telling them what they wanted to hear, but ultimately the entire community would and should wish me to crawl under a rock and render me quite delusional. One of so-called skeptics, Dr Judith Curry waxed poetic about being persecuted for having a minority opinion. Really ? Playing the victim card while a group of political shills is hailing you as a hero because your telling them what they want to hear. Roger Pielke Jr has been at odds with Dr Mann for years as to some of the byproducts of AGW but even he advised lawmakers to form policy before a 100 percent consensus was reached. As for Dr. Curry, her minority opinion should not persecuted, but an honest cross section of scientists represented should include the likes of her, Dr Pielke and 97 other scientists that accept the general consensus that human activity HAS had a material impact on our climate and has caused changes the likes of which we have never over such a short geological time scale; furthermore, if steps are not taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, warming has the potential to have drastic consequences on human life several generations down the road. As for this generation, our legacy is decided now, I'd hate to think we would get remembered for what took place today. And with that, THINK SNOW !
The outlook beyond Saturday has shifted decisively to the colder side. Though we are not expecting weather conditions to be particularly anomalous, the outlook from a few days ago did suggest a period of warmer weather and even some rain during the middle of next week. Models have taken all of that weather and pushed it south and with pretty good agreement. Weak Canadian high pressure will thus build across the region after the snow tapers off on Saturday and ensure that almost all of our overnight during the first 5 or so days of April are below freezing. Daytime temperatures, thanks to the rising April sun angle, are likely to reach the 40's Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. I might point out that there are indications of another notable east coast system that is now indicated impact areas south of Vermont Tuesday but this remains a week away and indications can change. Atmospheric conditions (at least at the tropospheric level) will be at their warmest during the middle of the week so I am fine with a "miss" on the aforementioned storm; in addition, there is plenty of intrigue for the end of the week when the set up is considerably better.
At jet stream level, there is some substantial ridging that is expected to develop late next week across Alaska and the Yukon territory of Canada. Underneath all of this, storminess will continue to cross the country and keep the weather across the United States very active from coast to coast. There's quite a bit of fun that can emerge in this type of set up across New England and the period surrounding April 6th and 7th is one that we should watch closely. A little spark from what's left of the polar jet and we could talking about another mammoth east coast system and more Vermont snow. Hey when the pattern produces, it produces, and though it might have been better served in late February, I'll take it anyway I can get it.
I'll finish with a rant directed at the proverbial toxic stink that has enveloped much of our elected US government and specifically the group that has over generously anointed themselves the "House Committee on Science, Space and Technology". These folks had a hearing on Wednesday, March 29th where the apparent plan was to hijack the overwhelmingly accepted consensus on climate science and make its defacto leader, Dr Michael Mann, look like a jackass. Dr Mann, agree with him or not, comes prepared and is generally ready for attacks from all directions and he got them from the assortment of climate science skeptics that the committee selectively invited. Dr Mann represented himself well and his arguments were well supported but I can't emphasize enough what a dog and pony show this turned into. Just imagine if a John Q Weather Forecasting Blogger such as myself examining forecast data, 97 percent of which indicated "partly cloudy", decided to spend 4 paragraphs talking about a 10-plus inches of snow that 3 percent of the forecast data is showing. I guarantee a few readers would fall in love with me for telling them what they wanted to hear, but ultimately the entire community would and should wish me to crawl under a rock and render me quite delusional. One of so-called skeptics, Dr Judith Curry waxed poetic about being persecuted for having a minority opinion. Really ? Playing the victim card while a group of political shills is hailing you as a hero because your telling them what they want to hear. Roger Pielke Jr has been at odds with Dr Mann for years as to some of the byproducts of AGW but even he advised lawmakers to form policy before a 100 percent consensus was reached. As for Dr. Curry, her minority opinion should not persecuted, but an honest cross section of scientists represented should include the likes of her, Dr Pielke and 97 other scientists that accept the general consensus that human activity HAS had a material impact on our climate and has caused changes the likes of which we have never over such a short geological time scale; furthermore, if steps are not taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, warming has the potential to have drastic consequences on human life several generations down the road. As for this generation, our legacy is decided now, I'd hate to think we would get remembered for what took place today. And with that, THINK SNOW !
Monday, March 27, 2017
Winter may have multiple encores planned over next 2-3 weeks the first which could arrive late Friday
My apologies for neglecting my blogging duties the last several days. In doing so I missed the nice burst of snow that the mountain received Friday which yielded a surprisingly good powder day according to the reports I got. 2 rounds of freezing rain have left MRG somewhat "encrusted" and we actually could use some warmer temps (or another 10 inches of pow) to loosen things up. Winter has been fighting rather admirably to maintain control over the weather in Vermont and by the looks of things, this should continue to be the case.
Temperatures as high as 40 on Tuesday could help soften part of the mountain though I can't promise much in the way of accompanying sunshine. We can expect some of the latter on Wednesday as a dry Canadian airmass assumes control of New England's weather picture. The dry weather during the middle of the week is certainly a change relative to expectations a few days ago and the sunshine should be a welcome sight which will allow temperatures to again warm toward 40 after beginning the day in the 20's. The forecast picture continues to look on the active side however and after another dry and somewhat sunny start, clouds should advance into the region by late in the day Thursday in advance of our next and somewhat interesting looking storm system.
Over the last 48 hours or so, the data has begun aligning around the idea of what I would call a significant east coast weather system though certainly not historic. The dry and yet not especially cold Canadian airmass, the relative strength of the storm, and the track of the center of lowest pressure begs the question of whether we could actually pull out an early spring victory. All of the aforementioned variables are certainly aligned to make this possible but remain rather marginal at least as of now. The Canadian airmass only supports temperatures near the freezing mark and the track of the storm is indicated to be over the Delmarva which is south of what we consider to be ideal. Still, a significant elevation event which would include some significant high elevation powder should be included in the possibility spectrum along with a total miss. The timing of all this would be in the late Friday to Saturday time frame. In the wake of this potential storm should be more clouds late Saturday and Sunday and some potential snow showers. Temperatures should remain relatively close to the freezing mark through the upcoming weekend.
Dry weather should prevail for Monday and Tuesday of next week before another conglomeration of storminess of some variety impacts the weather in the period between April 4th-6th. This 3-day window looks to be the warmest (relative to normal) in the upcoming 2-week outlook and most of the precipitation should be of the rain variety. Ensembles indicate another potential loosening of the jet in the Pacific and some jet stream ridging over Alaska and the Yukon. The combination of these two features would lead to another round of winter during the period between April 6th and April 12th. So in summary, in no way would I be willing to declare winter finished in Vermont.
Temperatures as high as 40 on Tuesday could help soften part of the mountain though I can't promise much in the way of accompanying sunshine. We can expect some of the latter on Wednesday as a dry Canadian airmass assumes control of New England's weather picture. The dry weather during the middle of the week is certainly a change relative to expectations a few days ago and the sunshine should be a welcome sight which will allow temperatures to again warm toward 40 after beginning the day in the 20's. The forecast picture continues to look on the active side however and after another dry and somewhat sunny start, clouds should advance into the region by late in the day Thursday in advance of our next and somewhat interesting looking storm system.
Over the last 48 hours or so, the data has begun aligning around the idea of what I would call a significant east coast weather system though certainly not historic. The dry and yet not especially cold Canadian airmass, the relative strength of the storm, and the track of the center of lowest pressure begs the question of whether we could actually pull out an early spring victory. All of the aforementioned variables are certainly aligned to make this possible but remain rather marginal at least as of now. The Canadian airmass only supports temperatures near the freezing mark and the track of the storm is indicated to be over the Delmarva which is south of what we consider to be ideal. Still, a significant elevation event which would include some significant high elevation powder should be included in the possibility spectrum along with a total miss. The timing of all this would be in the late Friday to Saturday time frame. In the wake of this potential storm should be more clouds late Saturday and Sunday and some potential snow showers. Temperatures should remain relatively close to the freezing mark through the upcoming weekend.
Dry weather should prevail for Monday and Tuesday of next week before another conglomeration of storminess of some variety impacts the weather in the period between April 4th-6th. This 3-day window looks to be the warmest (relative to normal) in the upcoming 2-week outlook and most of the precipitation should be of the rain variety. Ensembles indicate another potential loosening of the jet in the Pacific and some jet stream ridging over Alaska and the Yukon. The combination of these two features would lead to another round of winter during the period between April 6th and April 12th. So in summary, in no way would I be willing to declare winter finished in Vermont.
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Colder outlook for interior New England over the next 10 days ensures snow will stick around until early April
Bitterly cold temperatures and up to 6 inches of fresh pow greeted skiers on the mountain Wednesday. The latest blast of chill sent temperatures in to the single digits within a few hours and this would be cold by January standards. For cold weather lovers, enjoy it, because this is likely to be the last healthy blast of mid-winter-like chill we'll see until next year. Make no mistake, the outlook into next week looks quite a bit colder today but the jet stream will assume a more spring-like appearance and the weather map will be devoid of the bursts of arctic cold that have so characterized the current month of March. This is not to say we won't see more snowfall, we likely will, but with temperatures substantially closer to the freezing mark.
Readings Thursday morning will hover around zero for what will probably be the last time until next ski season. Bright March sunshine will go to work and will help make for a comfortable winter afternoon with temperatures in the 20's and minimal amounts of wind. More clouds are expected Friday and temperatures will quickly warm toward the freezing mark. Precipitation is expected to arrive by midday and although a brief 1-2 hour period of snow is likely at the start, rain and a few pockets of freezing rain should prevail through much of the afternoon and into the early evening.
There was talk mostly yesterday on Twitter of some snow across parts of interior New England this weekend and some of this was justified even if it wasn't entirely likely across a widespread area. The jet stream will produce a nice confluence area in eastern Canada even as the polar jet is receding. Such a feature allows healthy pool of arctic cold to establish itself across Quebec and this airmass will provide some serious resistance against the encroaching milder spring weather. Just as the mild weather begins overtaking Vermont and New Hampshire late Friday, the cold from Quebec will reassert itself by later Saturday. Though it wouldn't be impossible, snowfall doesn't appear likely. The aforementioned airmass will dry it out late on Saturday and send temperatures below freezing again Saturday night but a better organized weather system that appears well-supplied with moisture will approach on Sunday and although the forecast appears colder, it probably won't be cold enough. Freezing rain or sleet would be my guess right now, beginning Sunday and persisting in some fashion through Sunday night. Though appearing more to be a travel head-ache than a big powder producer, this storm should be watched as the situation as already evolved quite a bit from a few days ago.
The storminess is expected to continue into next week and although the jet stream, as mentioned, will appear more spring-like, the cold centered in eastern Canada will be hard-pressed to give ground. The outlook thus looks substantially colder and likely devoid of 50-degree temperatures. The weather map will look messy also and models have struggled to reach an agreement of the specifics of precipitation. Expect lots of clouds early in the week and poor visibility with temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark. A more organized area of precipitation is likely to impact the region during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame although this could change. The most intriguing part this potential storm system are the hints that a "4th quarter" jet amplification across eastern New England brings the possibility of significant snowfall into play in a week where a few days ago, this appeared completely unlikely. If this does happen, it won't be especially cold with temperatures in the 20's and low 30's but again, certainly no 50. At the very least, it ensures that the recent big snowfall will stick around until early April.
Readings Thursday morning will hover around zero for what will probably be the last time until next ski season. Bright March sunshine will go to work and will help make for a comfortable winter afternoon with temperatures in the 20's and minimal amounts of wind. More clouds are expected Friday and temperatures will quickly warm toward the freezing mark. Precipitation is expected to arrive by midday and although a brief 1-2 hour period of snow is likely at the start, rain and a few pockets of freezing rain should prevail through much of the afternoon and into the early evening.
There was talk mostly yesterday on Twitter of some snow across parts of interior New England this weekend and some of this was justified even if it wasn't entirely likely across a widespread area. The jet stream will produce a nice confluence area in eastern Canada even as the polar jet is receding. Such a feature allows healthy pool of arctic cold to establish itself across Quebec and this airmass will provide some serious resistance against the encroaching milder spring weather. Just as the mild weather begins overtaking Vermont and New Hampshire late Friday, the cold from Quebec will reassert itself by later Saturday. Though it wouldn't be impossible, snowfall doesn't appear likely. The aforementioned airmass will dry it out late on Saturday and send temperatures below freezing again Saturday night but a better organized weather system that appears well-supplied with moisture will approach on Sunday and although the forecast appears colder, it probably won't be cold enough. Freezing rain or sleet would be my guess right now, beginning Sunday and persisting in some fashion through Sunday night. Though appearing more to be a travel head-ache than a big powder producer, this storm should be watched as the situation as already evolved quite a bit from a few days ago.
The storminess is expected to continue into next week and although the jet stream, as mentioned, will appear more spring-like, the cold centered in eastern Canada will be hard-pressed to give ground. The outlook thus looks substantially colder and likely devoid of 50-degree temperatures. The weather map will look messy also and models have struggled to reach an agreement of the specifics of precipitation. Expect lots of clouds early in the week and poor visibility with temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark. A more organized area of precipitation is likely to impact the region during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame although this could change. The most intriguing part this potential storm system are the hints that a "4th quarter" jet amplification across eastern New England brings the possibility of significant snowfall into play in a week where a few days ago, this appeared completely unlikely. If this does happen, it won't be especially cold with temperatures in the 20's and low 30's but again, certainly no 50. At the very least, it ensures that the recent big snowfall will stick around until early April.
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