Still hoping to avert much of the mild weather next week but it's a tough ask

Mad River is concluding a cold yet productive week of skiing, procuring a few inches out of one of the longest snow squalls (from a distance standpoint) I can remember. Temperatures will climb well above the zero-degree mark by Friday afternoon with the help of our first day of February sunshine. As cold as it was across the midwest, Vermont will not record the coldest day of the winter during this cold wave since it was, in most places, 5-degrees colder on MLK day.

Over the next week or so, the cold will relent and we have some obstacles to overcome as has already been discussed. I have been waiting and hoping as the data continues to provide more clarity on the specifics of next week. Essentially, the jet stream configuration will change and re-center the cold much farther west in North America and allow a formidable ridge to establish itself along the east coast. It won't be the strongest ridge we've ever seen, we can look to the Super Nino December 2015 for that so there are questions about whether the mild air associated with this ridge will protrude interior New England. It has been my hope that we can fend it off at the last second as we've proven that we can sometimes do.

The last 24 hours of data continues to indicate glimmers of hope for first 7 days of February, but also  continue to show a mild intrusion and at least a little bit of rain. The first piece of good news relates to the upcoming weekend and involves a few things. A slower temperature moderation with temperatures remaining below the 30-degree mark through the weekend and a canadian weather disturbance capable of bringing some light snow and accumulating snow late in the ski day Saturday into Saturday evening. If we are lucky, we can squeeze a few inches of snow out of that, but it will take a lot of luck to get much more than that. Milder air is indicated to reach much of Vermont by late in the day Monday, ahead of the first in a series of what appears to be two storms. We can cling to a tiny bit of hope that this first storm tracks further south and we can avert a thaw, but late Monday and Tuesday do indeed look mild with at least a period of light rain. The colder air in Quebec is indicated to claw its way back into the state late on Tuesday into Wednesday and remain tepidly present for the 2nd  storm system later in the week. This appears to be more of a wintry mix right now but accumulating snow is possible again if we can push this system further south.

Cold, below freezing temperatures should prevail by Friday February 8th and continue through the weekend of the 9th and 10th. The overall weather pattern is not expected to change however with the focus of the colder air and unsettled weather positioned out west while at least a weak ridge in the jet stream and some milder air remains positioned across the southeast. Much of New England, especially interior New England, will be right in between thanks to the continued efforts of some high latitude blocking in the jet stream and some arctic air which should continue to remain close if not envelop us.

Lesser snow amounts Tuesday night and our next week concerns

I don't particularly enjoy playing the role of pessimist as it relates to our upcoming snowfall totals but I have to at least be a realist. NWS Burlington continues to have Winter Storm Warnings out for what they think will be 5-10 inches Tuesday evening, night and Wednesday. The storm in question however, is really struggling to get its act together and is being motored eastward by the PV and its very strong associated jet stream energy. I certainly don't expect us to get shut out completely however. Light snow has fallen throughout the day Tuesday and will intensify Tuesday evening and continue through part of the night. Given the way the storm is looking, I don't expect the moderate snow to last long enough to produce hefty accumulations but 4-8 inches is still enough to make for a powdery Wednesday. The incoming attack of brutally cold arctic air will actually wait until late in the ski day Wednesday to envelop MRG and surroundings so much of the day will feature tolerable temperatures (generally in the teens). The approaching arctic boundary is likely to bring some snow squalls and about 1-2 inches of additional snow. After that, temperatures nosedive toward zero and are closer to 10 below zero Thursday morning.

Shallow cold associated with the PV should provide stability along with the cold on both Thursday and Friday. Thursday's temperatures should reach about 5 and Friday's should get just beyond 10 with the help of a bit more February-powered sunshine. The cold will linger through Saturday but readings are expected to moderate quite dramatically late in the weekend. The possibility of some overrunning, warm advection induced snow remains sometime in between the Saturday and Sunday ski days but this remains just a possibility and is far from likely.

The buzz regarding a possible thaw has intensified over the last two days. At the very least, we should expect a period of above freezing temperatures and there's a chance that some rain accompanies that (though this remains only a chance). Having gotten that statement out of the way however, I figure it would be a good time to put the old "optimist" hat back on my head. Lets start by taking a trip down memory lane to one of the great weeks in this history of the MRG coop. 11 years ago, the 18-0 Patriots were 2 touchdown favorites against the upstart New York Giants in Superbowl 42 played on February 3rd 2008. The weather outlook at MRG during the ensuing week looked rainy and mild with the possibility of an extended thaw lasting a few days. Needless to say, it didn't look good for the Giants and it didn't look good for us powderhounds either. The NY Giants ended up winning that Superbowl however (hello 18-1) and Mad River Glen had one of the most epic weeks I can remember, procuring nearly 50 inches of powder over the span of multiple days. I don't bring these memories up to rub salt in the wounds of Patriots fans. I mean, I am sure those wounds would've healed by now and in addition, the Patriots have continued to dominate the ranks of pro-football while the Giants have sunk into futility. The weather set-up for next week however looks, in many ways similar to 2008 and during the same week after a Superbowl which will be played on the same day (February 3rd). Arctic air should remain ever-present across Quebec and will be fighting for at least partial control of New England even after completely relinquishing its grip over much of the country. There are a series of low pressure areas that are expected to impact the region next week, traveling along that boundary of very mild air over the Mid-Atlantic and continued cold to our north. The eventual position of that boundary will ultimately determine our fate but this is not a lost cause next week and could go either way or could go the way of both good news/bad news.

Beyond February 8th the outlook has taken a somewhat colder turn. The axis of cold air continues to look as if it will be positioned farther west and the jet stream in the Pacific appears as if it will gain some strength basically weakening the currently negative EPO  (data which is finally available again with the conclusion of the gov shutdown). That said, we should retain some high latitude blocking in the jet stream and this will keep arctic air from being completely scourged from lower North America. I can't promise another epic month but I am almost sure that we will not travel down the same abominable road that we did in 2017 and 2018 in February. I expect much better things. Enjoy !

Wintry week with both snow and cold and a milder early February outlook

The upcoming week will be about as wintry as it gets for the state. The talk of snow in the last update will now get amplified; and as advertised, bitterly cold temperatures and even colder wind chills will follow in the wake of that snow late in the week.

It certainly helps to get an over-performance on snowfall from what was a rather pathetic looking weather system on Sunday. The high country has thus regained its powdery prominence and can look forward to the arrival of an even bigger storm late on Tuesday.  In the meantime, northerly winds will usher in some dry air on Monday and although temperatures will be chilly, it will pale in comparison to conditions we will experience late in the week. Some sunshine and good visibility can't hurt either.

Tuesday's temperatures will moderate, reaching the 20's during the afternoon as clouds thicken. Snow should develop during the late afternoon or early evening. The southern stream is going to feed this storm a little juice but if there is a theme for the week, it is that everything will happen very fast. Snow will arrive, accumulate 6-12 inches during the overnight and will taper to flurries Wednesday morning. There will be a brief opportunity for some additional snow showers before the thrust of the shallow and bitterly cold arctic air pushes into the region by later in the day Wednesday. Temperatures will fall into the single digits by the evening and wind chills will be well below zero but the ski day itself will prove to be pretty darn good. Thursday on the other hand will be windy and bitterly cold in spite of some sunshine with temperatures struggling to make it above zero on the mountain. Interestingly, this polar vortex will make waves in the upper midwest for bringing temperatures of close to 20-below to Chicago. The windy city hasn't seen such readings in a while. After that however, the PV will rotate northeastward and rapidly retreat deep into Quebec. Though the region will be in close proximity to the PV on Thursday, we will not get the direct assault. It's analogous in some ways to a landfalling hurricane where Vermont is sitting 500 miles inland while states like Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are right along the coast. Temperatures will certainly be very cold Thursday but may even fall short of being the coldest of the season with MLK day beating it out. Furthermore, temperatures will moderate very quickly, reaching 10 Friday with somewhat calmer winds and well into the 20's on Saturday.

The first full weekend of February could see some snow induced by warm advection. The push of milder air however is of growing concern because it appears, as of now, capable of bringing temperatures  back above the freezing mark sometime between the 4th and 6th of the month.  This is not, by any means, etched in stone and there are hints that lingering arctic air in Canada could fight for a piece of the proverbial pie. Forecasts of the PNA index however strongly suggests that arctic air will shift its focus westward in early February and will leave the door open for a milder intrusion. What happens thereafter appears conflicting as of now. Enough blocking is indicated to persist at high latitudes to keep some arctic cold in Canada, but at the same time, the jet stream in the Pacific is indicated to intensify. Though the longer range outlook continues to look milder, there are still no glaring indications that another February will succumb to El Torchy. For now its just the one potential mild scourge on February 4th-6th.

Possible storm Tuesday/Wednesdy of next week ahead of another big cold surge !

The deep snowpack largely survived the onslaught of rain Thursday and will now serve as a very durable base for the duration of the ski season. To put that base to good use however, we will need some additional snowfall and fortunately, we have some opportunities for that in what still appears to be a very wintry outlook going into early February.

Following the light accumulation as a result of Friday's snow showers, Saturday will follow as a chilly but mostly dry day with temperatures hovering in the low to middle teens. Though it looks generally cloudy Saturday, visibility should be improved compared to the past few days. Some light snow is expected to move back into the region early Sunday in response to a relatively innocuous polar jet feature. There is limited available moisture with this feature and a lot of what is available will actually hit areas farther north. Still, we could see a 1-3 inch accumulation along with some moderating temperatures (near 30) as Sunday progresses.

The Sunday feature is somewhat of a disappointment, but it will allow a limited amount of arctic air to rebuild across interior New England ahead of the next and more dynamic weather situation. The various model simulations are all over the place and understandably so given the approaching polar vortex, the seemingly uncertain impact of southern branch moisture and especially the overall track and development of what could be a rather strong storm. No point in hedging here at the SCWB so lets try and provide some clarity by sorting through this mess of information. Doubting the legitimacy of moisture in the southern stream, as the American GFS model continues to do, appears flat out wrong to me. The presence of such moisture will serve us in two ways. Provide more moisture for snow, which given this scenario, will commence on Tuesday and pinch off possible warm intrusion by focusing low pressure development and intensification farther south. There are still some questions regarding the track and eventual intensity of this system and the with PV approaching the northern Great Lakes, it won't take much of a change to shift this track. That said, I think we have some leeway and good potential for a sizable snow accumulation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Stay tuned on this one.

Then we have the "polar vortex" (PV) to deal with late in the week. There has been so much talk about this feature and a lot of it has been truly worthy scientific discussion. And then there has been the incessant hype, mostly from the twittersphere and a lot of that has been what I would call "attention seeking". This PV will get as far as the northern Great Lakes and then veer northeastward, providing the U.S. a surge of very cold temperatures but only across a limited portion of the country. Vermont, as we all know, is usually well-positioned to get its share of whatever cold surge comes south so although the southern U.S. will avoid the extreme temperatures this time, we will get our share late next week. For about 4 days starting late Wednesday, temperatures are likely to stay in that -10 to +10 range with fiesty winds providing wind chill temperatures in that -20 to -50 range.

Some flurries are possible during this cold period and a disturbance could provide an opportunity for some light snow late next week. For the most part however, the proximity of the PV usually provides some stability to the lower troposphere and will keep a low ceiling on snowfall potential. After Saturday February 2nd, the pattern is expected to soften and arctic air will retreat somewhat. Will this retreat provide an opportunity for another thaw in the first full week of February ? Possibly a short one, but I haven't seen anything too disconcerting as of yet and we will need the pattern to soften, at least somewhat, to open the door for storminess.

The rainy interruption ends late Thursday with some snow and lots of cold for the balance of Jan

The fantastic stretch of January weather has been rudely interrupted and each piece of data seems to indicate more and more rain. Temperatures will surge into the 40's Thursday morning and the rain will be heavy for a time, but without powerful winds and excessive dewpoints, much of the snow should survive. That said the nearly inch of rain will cause some problems due to sudden runoff. The rain is expected to turn to a period of snow after about 3 PM and this could amount to a few inches across the high country before all precipitation ends during the early evening. Another forgettable mid-winter rain-fest in Vermont, perhaps not as bad as some but certainly worse than others and worse than this looked a few days ago.

The polar jet is expected to reemerge as a dominant player on our landscape almost immediately after the rain event. Temperatures will be back into the teens early Friday and the first in series of clipper-type systems will eventually spread snow showers back in to the state during the afternoon. Not much is indicated to fall during this time frame but 1-2 inches is certainly better than nothing at all and remember this will be the first. Saturday will be colder still with readings near zero during the morning and in the teens during the afternoon. Though flurries and snow showers are possible Saturday, accumulating snow is actually more likely Sunday as the second and stronger of these polar jet features impacts interior New England. This has the potential to be more of a 2-5 inch type of event with the most intense snow falling before first tracks time Sunday.

A third system and potentially the strongest will mark the southward advance of what we expect to be a fairly major polar vortex type of event. The coldest arctic air of the season is expected across the  midwest and ahead of this, a dynamic weather feature will spread snow in the New England in the Monday/Tuesday time frame though it remains uncertain what part of New England is best positioned to score the best snow. Recall that I had made mention of a some southern branch activity in past updates. Though this remains on the playing field, the indications are that this activity is overwhelmed by the polar jet. The ENSO has weakened some in recent weeks but not entirely so I wouldn't want to simply neglect any potential southern streamer which could still manage to significantly alter the forecast across a broad part of the eastern seaboard early next week. Vermont is also expected to be enveloped by the deep freeze later in the week with another round of sub-zero temperatures in the AM hours and near 10-degree highs. The shallow cold air is likely to cut down on the snow shower activity after Wednesday but its reasonable to expect 6-12 inches from the series of polar jet features over the span of 5 days (this Friday to next Wednesday).

Though February is expected to begin on the chilly side, there has been a developing consensus that the pattern will soften. The American Ensembles paint a picture suggesting a turn toward milder than average temperatures by about February 4th though there are other indications of a more tempered moderation according to other simulations. I have little doubt that the ferocity of the polar jet will weaken  after its attack on the U.S. next week but I would be surprised if we gave way to a completely mild pattern in February. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to remain negative and the Pacific appears as if it wants to remain on the benign side for the foreseeable future. Even if arctic cold is shown to retreat, New England is likely to fight the hardest to hold on to winter's chill as it has done so all season.

Surge of milder temperatures Wednesday will only slightly interrupt what is a cold and snowy setup for end of January

Just like the New England Patriots football season, there was a time in late December where things seemed to be unraveling just a bit. And as the Pats advanced to yet another Super Bowl, Mad River Glen was procuring another storm of close to 20-inches and is further cementing the winter season as a truly memorable one. Though we are certainly on a pace to do just that we have to keep this train rolling.

Directly ahead of us remains a complicated forecast picture and an unfortunate push of mild air. Often times, computer forecast simulations fail to pick up on a overrunning surface until within a day or two of an upcoming event. I have been holding out hope that some of the bitterly cold temperatures that have gripped New England will continue to do so through Wednesday/Thursday of this week but indications are that this air will get mostly flushed out at varying degrees. As of late Monday, there remains some disagreement regarding the extent of the mild intrusion but the tepid consensus is for some light snow to develop on Wednesday and give way to a bit of freezing rain and then rain during the overnight hours. Though temperatures could make a run at 40 by very early Thursday this won't be a significant thaw and as moisture continues to stream up from the south on Thursday, a wave of low pressure could potentially change the precipitation back to snow for a time before the event culminates Thursday evening.  Stay tuned to the forecast because last minute changes are likely.

Modestly colder air will work its way back into the region Friday and a clipper system marking the advance of bitterly cold temperatures should spread snow showers into the state as the day progresses. The snow does have some accumulation potential. Meanwhile, there has been lots of talk regarding the incoming attack of the "Polar Vortex" and the first such approach will come Saturday though it appears as if we simply get a glancing blow (The PV will only make it just south of the Hudson Bay). Colder temperatures will advance into the Vermont high country late Friday and Saturday will be quite cold with a sub-zero low and a high of only near 10 but this is about 10 warmer than MLK Monday.

Temperatures are actually expected to moderate modestly by the end of the weekend and all eyes will be on a major amplification that is expected in the jet stream for early in the week. It looked for a time that it would simply be a peak in the arctic insurgency but it appears as it the action in the jet stream is associated with what could be a major league southern streamer. With the polar jet on the playing field, it sets up a highly dynamic situation involving the presence of arctic air, big time moisture associated with a strengthening low pressure center in the gulf states and a potentially big and phased system early next week moving up the east coast.  Some big snow is certainly possible and if we don't get it that way, we could certainly get it from a succession of polar jet disturbance with one arriving Sunday and another marking the advance of more bone chilling arctic cold around the time frame of Tuesday/Wednesday (Jan 29-30). So much could happen, and like I said in the last update, most of it good !

We then advance the calendar toward February and we will have a few things at work. Continued blocking in the jet stream and a negative Arctic Oscillation will keep arctic air at least close by but the most intense blocking is indicated to shift northwestward and thus may allow the focus of the most intense arctic cold to shift more toward western North America. This should help keep the region more out of the way of some of the more bitterly cold arctic air. That said, the jet stream in the Pacific is not indicated to intensify so it would surprise me to see the polar grip entirely capitulate. There is also no reason  not to believe in the magic of this modest El Nino which should continue to support a healthy southern branch of the jet and thus keep the storminess in play.

Big MLK weekend snow remains on track, more snow potential emerges both mid-week and next weekend

Lots of excitement in the weather universe and lots of excitement in the east coast skiing universe. It simply doesn't get much better than a holiday weekend and a big storm capable of producing some big snow on some already big conditions. We have all the ingredients in the right place for this one. A fresh supply of  arctic chill and an approaching and strengthening storm which is in the process of exiting the Rocky Mountain region and will begin gathering moisture first from the Gulf of Mexico and eventually the Atlantic Ocean.

Temperatures will plunge to sub-zero levels Friday night and some sunshine might greet skiers on a cold Saturday morning. The sunshine, if we get some, will be short lived, but in a relative sense, it will be tranquil in spite of the cold. The wind for a good part of Saturday will be gentle compared to what we expect both during the storm Sunday and after the storm on Monday. Clouds will have enveloped the region by late in the day and snow will begin early Saturday evening. The snow will be light at first and become heavier after midnight as winds continue to increase. Sunday morning will be as wintry as it gets with wind driven cold smoke, moderate to heavy snow and temperatures not too far from zero. Roads will be snow covered undoubtedly, but it won't be the wet stuff that can often make conditions quite slick. Sunday is obviously a powder day but of the very cold and windy variety. Winds will become northerly and be gusting to 40 or even 50 mph at the summits. A "north" wind is not an especially bad direction for MRG if you know what I mean, but I make no guarantees.

The snow intensity will wane as the day progresses though it will continue to be very windy. I am going to stick with snowfall accumulations of 1-2 feet but the data does suggest that a narrow "best zone" for snow will be across central and southern Vermont during this event. I feel relatively good about securing a foot at Mad River but the two feet accumulations appear more likely from northwest Mass northward to about Okemo. Stowe and points north will struggle to get over the 1 foot mark but they should score a decent amount of powder regardless. Temperatures still look like they will be around -15 Monday morning and will stay sub-zero throughout the day along a continuation of very windy conditions.

After Monday, temperatures are expected to moderate and do so very quickly. The area of arctic air will temporarily shift westward early in the week and allow a weak ridge in the jet stream to establish itself along the east coast. Temperatures will be up in the teens on Tuesday and could potentially make a run at the freezing mark Wednesday. There is certainly some valid concern over this as a storm system approaches and the jet stream re-amplifies. Is it possible to get a wintry mix or even rain Wednesday after the wintry extravaganza of MLK weekend ?? In New England absolutely ! But models are telling a different overall story, at least to me. A story that appears quite volatile and that yes could include precipitation other than snow  for a time during the middle of next week, but could also include some big time additional snowfall. This could happen by means of this same mid-week system (wintry mix/rain could turn to snow) or could happen closer to the weekend from another potential storm. To put it plainly, there is so much that can happen from Wednesday the 23rd through the weekend and most of it is good. Not worth worrying too much about what could be just a little "bad"

Beyond next weekend and into early February we are still looking at a very cold pattern. This is anchored by all of the high latitude blocking in the jet stream which has already emerged   as of this blogging and will become more pronounced by late in the month. The active Pacific jet and the rapidly cycling MJO will likely prevent the pattern from maintaining a grip on the North America for the entire month of February but for us, the combination of storminess and cold is a terrific thing. Overwhelming cold can limit the snowfall which could happen for a time as January transitions to February but I don't think it will last long. For now, I have nothing but love for how this season has transpired and nothing I've seen today changes those feelings.