The last regular update of the winter season includes a classic roller coaster ride of April weather in Vermont. A bit of everything as they say with big swings in temperature and a variety of precipitation types which at times could be falling pretty hard atop both the Vermont high country and the low lying valleys.
I haven't updated in several days but our late week storm that was teased as a potential snow producer is poised to deliver some of those goods. The storm has the capability of becoming that elusive April 2-footer but will fall short of that status but not by much. The chess pieces are well positioned with a nice block in the jet stream over the Northwest Passages (small body of water NE of Hudson Bay) and a closed low in the jet stream over the Canadian Maritimes often referred to as the 50-50 low. A very strong jet stream impulse will attempt to plunge into this set up and is poised to become a big New England precipitation and snow producer. The maturation of this storm is close to perfection for northern New England as a whole but will belly flop just enough so that the heaviest snow is confined to areas north and east of Vermont (northern Maine mostly). Still, Vermont, especially the high country of Vermont will get several inches of snow.
Precipitation will be mostly rain as it commences Thursday morning but areas above 2500 feet could see a period of heavy wet snow with any intense areas of precipitation. The chances for this should actually increase as the day progresses and the threshold elevation for snow will also drop as we move into the afternoon and evening. The axis of low pressure will pass directly over the state of Vermont and continue to strengthen while pushing east. Much of the state will attain access to the colder conveyor of moisture Thursday evening into early Friday and this means snow pretty much everywhere, even in the low lying valleys. Accumulations by midday Friday could be as much as 10 inches above 2500 feet but will likely be confined to a few gloppy inches or less below 1500 feet (which is where most of us live). Snow consistency will also be very sensitive to elevation with the possibility of a few powdery inches across the high country as temperatures drop into the 20's early Friday. In low lying areas temperatures are likely to hover near or above the freezing mark Thursday night and much of Friday. This storm reminds me a bit of our late February storm, an event where we overperformed and saw over 15 inches. We are dealing with late season challenges that will make that event difficult to replicate but it would have been a nice way to close out the season hypothetically speaking.
Conditions will be blustery through Friday into Saturday even as the snow tapers off. Temperatures are likely to top out only in the low 40's Saturday but Sunday should be a little tamer with calmer winds and readings up near 50. With a little help from some sunshine Sunday, we could actually do several degrees better than 50 but I am not so sure about such help right now.
It will get interesting early next week and worth watching but not because of snow. The big ridge over Alaska is working its magic and will result in an onslaught of cold and wintry weather across the front range late this weekend. The storm responsible is a big one and will gather a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture as it travels north and east. A LOT of moisture capitalized. Both heavy rain and wind are possible on Monday across the northeast along with relatively mild though not excessively mild temperatures. In recent years we've had some big spring storms result in power outages and some minor flooding across the state and this appears to be a candidate for both though some changes are still possible. When the rain ends late Monday we could also see a one day surge of in temperatures into the 60's Tuesday. After that, some relative chill returns although the bulk of this will impact the central United States and this airmass will modify somewhat before reaching New England.
The pattern though through April 20th continues to look cold and capable of producing more winter weather. That said, regular blogging activities will come to an end with the next post consisting of a seasonal summary. If some interesting weather comes around, I'll certainly talk about it on twitter some, especially since I can't complain about Mets baseball right now.
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
Winter could be stirred up from the ashes in a potentially interesting setup late next week
Sunshine late on Tuesday and early on Wednesday was a nice needed break from the succession of cloudy days in northern Vermont. The clouds came back as of late Wednesday and unfortunately they will be with us through at least early Friday. In the short term, I wouldn't describe our upcoming weather as especially exciting or anything I would necessarily wish for but it is unique. There is a terrific weather enthusiast in southern Vermont (@vermonsterWx) who posted a atmospheric sounding, a method of looking at the vertical column of air at a specific location. That sounding illustrated a unique situation where in spite of a northwest wind at the surface, much of the air above us is getting warmer over time. This is happening thanks to a wound up storm system (the one that missed us) that is spinning ferociously offshore while occluding and pumping in some relative warmth from its northern flank. The warm air isn't the only thing being shoved in our direction from this storm, there's moisture that is also expected to impact much of northern New England and will do so via the back door. Most of Thursday will be cloudy and the radar will show rain and snow approaching Vermont from the northeast, the opposite of what we typically see when it comes to approaching weather in New England. This precipitation could fall as some snow for a period during the late afternoon but this will change to rain by nightfall as that aforementioned column of air continues to get warmer. The rain will be sporadic in nature but should continue in that fashion through early Friday.
I am sincerely hoping that we can optimize the stretch of weather between late Friday and Monday. It is all a question on the extent of cloudiness. We are expecting a weak area of high pressure to build over the state beginning late on Friday and an innocuous cold front on Sunday isn't likely to bring any significant rainfall to the state. It would certainly nice if that weak area of high pressure was strong enough to remove most of the clouds. If that were to happen we could see temperatures reach the high 50's Saturday and near 60 on Sunday. I'll hedge a little for now and just suggest some partial sunshine and low to mid 50's for the weekend with little wind.
The early part of next week looks like a continuation of the weather from the weekend. Some limited sunshine, a tolerable amount of wind and temperatures mostly in the 50's during the day. And then it gets interesting. I mean where was this pattern back in January !! The pattern that supported a bottling up of cold across Alaska has vanished and there's some evidence of a blocking ridge (depending on what set of ensembles you are inclined to believe), the EPO looks decidedly negative (relaxed Pacific pattern) and the AO appears neutralized. There are a few different scenarios that could play out given these circumstances but one way or another, a large section of the contiguous U.S. is likely to see a southward push of early spring cold weather. It will assuredly be temporary but it will not lack for excitement. The European operational and ensemble members (and to some degree the GFS ensemble member) showed northern New England taking the brunt of this with a phased storm system impacting us in the middle to later part of next week. It would be a rain to heavy snow scenario that would not be insignificant. Other simulations also indicate the ridging over Alaska but confine most of the excitement to areas out west. From a weather perspective this will be an interesting one to watch. At the very least, we are likely to see a volatile stretch of spring weather starting in the middle of next week that will likely include cold, possibly some snow, a few mild days followed perhaps by more cold.
It's probably worth one or two more blog posts at least.
I am sincerely hoping that we can optimize the stretch of weather between late Friday and Monday. It is all a question on the extent of cloudiness. We are expecting a weak area of high pressure to build over the state beginning late on Friday and an innocuous cold front on Sunday isn't likely to bring any significant rainfall to the state. It would certainly nice if that weak area of high pressure was strong enough to remove most of the clouds. If that were to happen we could see temperatures reach the high 50's Saturday and near 60 on Sunday. I'll hedge a little for now and just suggest some partial sunshine and low to mid 50's for the weekend with little wind.
The early part of next week looks like a continuation of the weather from the weekend. Some limited sunshine, a tolerable amount of wind and temperatures mostly in the 50's during the day. And then it gets interesting. I mean where was this pattern back in January !! The pattern that supported a bottling up of cold across Alaska has vanished and there's some evidence of a blocking ridge (depending on what set of ensembles you are inclined to believe), the EPO looks decidedly negative (relaxed Pacific pattern) and the AO appears neutralized. There are a few different scenarios that could play out given these circumstances but one way or another, a large section of the contiguous U.S. is likely to see a southward push of early spring cold weather. It will assuredly be temporary but it will not lack for excitement. The European operational and ensemble members (and to some degree the GFS ensemble member) showed northern New England taking the brunt of this with a phased storm system impacting us in the middle to later part of next week. It would be a rain to heavy snow scenario that would not be insignificant. Other simulations also indicate the ridging over Alaska but confine most of the excitement to areas out west. From a weather perspective this will be an interesting one to watch. At the very least, we are likely to see a volatile stretch of spring weather starting in the middle of next week that will likely include cold, possibly some snow, a few mild days followed perhaps by more cold.
It's probably worth one or two more blog posts at least.
Friday, March 27, 2020
Very typical early spring weather for the next week in northern VT but early April looks stormy
The snow this past Monday night was magnificent. One of those unique cases where northern Vermont performed exceptionally well in spite of a storm track well south of Long Island. The dry airmass was displaced rather easily allowing moisture to stream in off the Atlantic Ocean rather efficiently. Areas to our south that should have performed better under-performed or changed to rain while some areas across the northern half of Vermont received over a foot.
And with the midweek storm passing well to our south, sunshine made a multi-day appearance and allowed temperatures to climb well into the 40's Wednesday and close to 50 on Thursday and Friday. The milder weather felt nice Thursday but it pales in comparison to what occurred in Oklahoma with temperatures reaching 90 and even 100 degrees in a few places. It has been a very warm winter across much of the south and an even warmer, at times summer-like month of March.
Just as we begin to see April on the immediate horizon, the pattern looks stormy and also capable of producing more snow. More on that in a bit. In the meantime, our weekend got split in half. The first half Saturday is sensational. Following a chilly near 20-degree start, a full day of sunshine should boost readings toward or above 50 and with very little wind. Sunday is a disaster with rain arriving by mid-morning and continuing well into the evening. The rain will hold temperatures near 40 but it won't be cold enough either at the surface or aloft to support snow during the day. At best, we could experience a bit of freezing rain in spots similar to what we saw back on March 13th. Temperatures aloft are expected to cool Sunday night and allow for some snow across much of the northern Vermont high country. This once powerful weather system over the upper Midwest will become occluded well before impacting Vermont, but with all occlusions, even the rainy ones, there's always a cool pool and that could provide a gloppy inch of snow to valley areas and a few inches above 2000 feet by Monday morning.
The aforementioned storm system will only slowly move away in the early part of the upcoming week. This will allow clouds to linger and likely keep temperatures from moving past the 50-degree mark. Current data suggests that this will improve as we get to Wednesday with a couple of mild days possible on April 1st and 2nd. This notion is predicated on another mid-week storm dodging interior New England much like this past Wednesday. A few days ago there were hints of a fairly big Vermont impact from this but not so much as of Friday March 27th. Worth watching this storm however for another possible change.
I'll never forget how insulted snow-lovers in Albany were in the winter of 2015-16. They got shut out of everything all winter and recorded most of their snow during the first week of April if I am not mistaken. Given their nearly 60 inch snow climatology, that was a snow hole for the ages. Northern Vermont actually put up a rather good fight this winter from a snowfall perspective but have been repeatedly plagued by an adverse set of teleconnection indices (AO/EPO) all winter. Much like that 2016 spring, our early April is looking rather stormy and quite volatile on the temperature scale. The AO appears to be as neutral as ever and the jet stream in the Pacific looks as relaxed as it's been all winter. I still think much of the most intense cold will remain bottled up near the Arctic given the lack of a strong high latitude blocking mechanism but the pattern does support the notion of some big east coast storms and at least a day or two of much below normal temperatures (In early April that's 30-35 for max temps).
In the 15 or so years doing the blog, the big 2-foot April snowstorm has somehow eluded us which I find somewhat remarkable in the context of that time span. No, I haven't published any research papers on it but I would imagine the return period for such an occurrence is more than once over a 10 year period (at least for the high country). Should we get something like that, would we consider it a slap in the face at this point ?
And with the midweek storm passing well to our south, sunshine made a multi-day appearance and allowed temperatures to climb well into the 40's Wednesday and close to 50 on Thursday and Friday. The milder weather felt nice Thursday but it pales in comparison to what occurred in Oklahoma with temperatures reaching 90 and even 100 degrees in a few places. It has been a very warm winter across much of the south and an even warmer, at times summer-like month of March.
Just as we begin to see April on the immediate horizon, the pattern looks stormy and also capable of producing more snow. More on that in a bit. In the meantime, our weekend got split in half. The first half Saturday is sensational. Following a chilly near 20-degree start, a full day of sunshine should boost readings toward or above 50 and with very little wind. Sunday is a disaster with rain arriving by mid-morning and continuing well into the evening. The rain will hold temperatures near 40 but it won't be cold enough either at the surface or aloft to support snow during the day. At best, we could experience a bit of freezing rain in spots similar to what we saw back on March 13th. Temperatures aloft are expected to cool Sunday night and allow for some snow across much of the northern Vermont high country. This once powerful weather system over the upper Midwest will become occluded well before impacting Vermont, but with all occlusions, even the rainy ones, there's always a cool pool and that could provide a gloppy inch of snow to valley areas and a few inches above 2000 feet by Monday morning.
The aforementioned storm system will only slowly move away in the early part of the upcoming week. This will allow clouds to linger and likely keep temperatures from moving past the 50-degree mark. Current data suggests that this will improve as we get to Wednesday with a couple of mild days possible on April 1st and 2nd. This notion is predicated on another mid-week storm dodging interior New England much like this past Wednesday. A few days ago there were hints of a fairly big Vermont impact from this but not so much as of Friday March 27th. Worth watching this storm however for another possible change.
I'll never forget how insulted snow-lovers in Albany were in the winter of 2015-16. They got shut out of everything all winter and recorded most of their snow during the first week of April if I am not mistaken. Given their nearly 60 inch snow climatology, that was a snow hole for the ages. Northern Vermont actually put up a rather good fight this winter from a snowfall perspective but have been repeatedly plagued by an adverse set of teleconnection indices (AO/EPO) all winter. Much like that 2016 spring, our early April is looking rather stormy and quite volatile on the temperature scale. The AO appears to be as neutral as ever and the jet stream in the Pacific looks as relaxed as it's been all winter. I still think much of the most intense cold will remain bottled up near the Arctic given the lack of a strong high latitude blocking mechanism but the pattern does support the notion of some big east coast storms and at least a day or two of much below normal temperatures (In early April that's 30-35 for max temps).
In the 15 or so years doing the blog, the big 2-foot April snowstorm has somehow eluded us which I find somewhat remarkable in the context of that time span. No, I haven't published any research papers on it but I would imagine the return period for such an occurrence is more than once over a 10 year period (at least for the high country). Should we get something like that, would we consider it a slap in the face at this point ?
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Bluebird Sunday will be followed by several days of clouds and some wet snow
Oh my goodness, we've got some winter weather coming our way. It appears to be the early spring version of winter with some wet snow and marginal temperatures but I am sincerely hoping for some good wintry scenery. One thing is for certain, enjoy the Sunday sunshine because the 7 days that follow look very cloudy. That Sunday sunshine will be accompanied by maximum temperatures that struggle to make it above the freezing mark, but light winds will help make it a relatively comfortable day.
Clouds advance into the region early Monday and some snow will be falling by mid-afternoon. The storm responsible is a weak area of low pressure that will use the gradient from the exiting arctic high pressure center to strengthen and expand the area of precipitation. The storm is expected to remain south of Long Island which means the heaviest precipitation is likely to stay south of northern Vermont. That said, models have suggested that this storm will have an inverted-like surface structure which should allow the precipitation shield to extend farther north than it might otherwise. How extensive this area of snowfall is remains up for debate but 2-5 inches of wet snow Monday evening is my best guess. Like many storms in late March, we should see some elevation sensitivity that will impact both amounts and snow consistency.
The Monday snowfall, whatever we get, will be followed rather quickly by a more formidable storm Wednesday. It was this feature that stood out to me when looking at the weather maps last week and it continues to do so as of Saturday (3/21). That said, the MRV will be working with a real limited supply of cold air while also dealing with the fact that this storm, like its predecessor, will be tracking south of Long Island. It's not a shut out track but the conundrum speaks for itself. If the storm shifts northward it would threaten to dislodge the minimal amount of cold in place but the current track might prevent us from receiving the heaviest precipitation. This is still worth watching though. A strong enough and a good enough track should at least produce in the mountains even if valley locations get stuck with a cold rain.
It looks like a real battle thereafter as to whether milder or colder weather end up prevailing over the state of Vermont through the last weekend of March. Another weaker weather system is likely to impact the region Friday which will keep much of the state cloudy through the end of the week. This late Thursday/early Friday weather feature appears to be a warmer one though the data remains a little inconclusive. Colder high pressure might then successfully build across the region for Saturday providing the region with some sunshine but that also will be short lived (it at all) as another storm promises to spread clouds and precipitation into the region either late that day or on Sunday.
Ensembles are painting somewhat different pictures in the period between March 30 and April 5. The European ensembles suggest what could prove to be an excellent stretch of weather with more sunshine and potentially spring-like temperatures. The American Ensembles show a stormier somewhat colder scenario. Given that the colder weather is expected to reposition over Alaska again and given how much of this winter has played out, one would have to favor the milder outlook from a betting odds standpoint.
I very much appreciate all the kind words from everyone. Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.
Clouds advance into the region early Monday and some snow will be falling by mid-afternoon. The storm responsible is a weak area of low pressure that will use the gradient from the exiting arctic high pressure center to strengthen and expand the area of precipitation. The storm is expected to remain south of Long Island which means the heaviest precipitation is likely to stay south of northern Vermont. That said, models have suggested that this storm will have an inverted-like surface structure which should allow the precipitation shield to extend farther north than it might otherwise. How extensive this area of snowfall is remains up for debate but 2-5 inches of wet snow Monday evening is my best guess. Like many storms in late March, we should see some elevation sensitivity that will impact both amounts and snow consistency.
The Monday snowfall, whatever we get, will be followed rather quickly by a more formidable storm Wednesday. It was this feature that stood out to me when looking at the weather maps last week and it continues to do so as of Saturday (3/21). That said, the MRV will be working with a real limited supply of cold air while also dealing with the fact that this storm, like its predecessor, will be tracking south of Long Island. It's not a shut out track but the conundrum speaks for itself. If the storm shifts northward it would threaten to dislodge the minimal amount of cold in place but the current track might prevent us from receiving the heaviest precipitation. This is still worth watching though. A strong enough and a good enough track should at least produce in the mountains even if valley locations get stuck with a cold rain.
It looks like a real battle thereafter as to whether milder or colder weather end up prevailing over the state of Vermont through the last weekend of March. Another weaker weather system is likely to impact the region Friday which will keep much of the state cloudy through the end of the week. This late Thursday/early Friday weather feature appears to be a warmer one though the data remains a little inconclusive. Colder high pressure might then successfully build across the region for Saturday providing the region with some sunshine but that also will be short lived (it at all) as another storm promises to spread clouds and precipitation into the region either late that day or on Sunday.
Ensembles are painting somewhat different pictures in the period between March 30 and April 5. The European ensembles suggest what could prove to be an excellent stretch of weather with more sunshine and potentially spring-like temperatures. The American Ensembles show a stormier somewhat colder scenario. Given that the colder weather is expected to reposition over Alaska again and given how much of this winter has played out, one would have to favor the milder outlook from a betting odds standpoint.
I very much appreciate all the kind words from everyone. Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Weather continues to happen so lets talk about it some
Our ski season came to a crashing halt this past weekend as we adjust to a new world. But at least in this new world, we still have weather and so I can blog about that a few more times before calling it a season. We can expect a bit of everything over the next few days including some very mild and some very cold weather. The large ridge positioned over the Gulf of Alaska will proceed, as expected, to migrate northwestward and will allow arctic cold to grip much of western Canada into early April. Northern Vermont is a long way form western Canada but the pattern will open the door slightly for a bit of cold and possibly a bit of snow to go with that cold in the coming week.
There's a rather significant storm that will organize across the southern Rockies by early Thursday and a wave of low pressure way out ahead of that storm will spread some rain into southern New England early in the day. The precipitation will mostly steer clear of Vermont but a dusting of snow or mixed precipitation is likely before 10 am. It will remain cloudy and cool the rest of Thursday with temperatures hovering near 40, but a massive push of warmth is coming for Friday. The surge of mild weather, a full blown "El Torchy" that will include gusty southwest winds, 60-plus temperatures, and intervals of clouds and sun. Also included in the Friday package of weather is a bit of rain. Showers mostly, but even a thunderstorm is possible in what appears to be a early season convective set up.
The potential thunderstorms are associated with this aforementioned Rocky Mountain originating storm that will ultimately pass well to our north Friday night. A very sharp, very strong cold front will then bring temperatures well below freezing across the Vermont high country and they will stay there for much of the weekend. Saturday's cold will be accompanied by flurries and some gusty northwest winds. Winds Sunday will be calmer but readings could be down in the single numbers into the morning before rebounding to about 30 degrees.
The cold will moderate after Sunday but we might struggle see outright spring-like temps for a bit. I mean without lift service we might as well turn the EPO negative finally !!!
EPO Analysis / Forecast
But as I mentioned, it will actually be western Canada experiencing the full impact of this more wintry pattern. Vermont will be colder but will likely simply see temperatures closer to normal. A potentially strong weather system will impact parts of the east coast Wednesday. This storm does have the capability of bringing wet snow to Vermont and possibly a significant amount. I will certainly keep an eye on that system which will then be followed more relatively seasonable March weather.
If its the milder weather you're actually hoping for given our present state of circumstances we might get a bit more of that as we get to the last full weekend of March or in early April. Our little respite from the positive EPO will last about a week but is expected to resume its 2020 state of remaining mostly positive which means a fast flowing west to east Pacific jet stream. The Arctic Oscillation meanwhile just keep spewing out positive numbers. This is more or less the reverse of the 2009-10 winter which saw a persistently negative AO which set the stage for the Mid-Atlantic snowmageddon.
The world in which we lived has obviously taken a very dark turn over the past few weeks as the threat of this virus has gotten very real. Plenty of folks, with more expertise, can give you all the advice about how you should act and what you should or shouldn't do. All I can stress is that I love being part of this Mad River Glen skiing community and I have faith we will use every bit of mental toughness to get through this. The world might look different at the other end and certain things might never be the same but we will persist. Our values as a community will most definitely endure and transcend all of this. Be generous, respectful and helpful toward one another but we do that anyway so keep doing it !
There's a rather significant storm that will organize across the southern Rockies by early Thursday and a wave of low pressure way out ahead of that storm will spread some rain into southern New England early in the day. The precipitation will mostly steer clear of Vermont but a dusting of snow or mixed precipitation is likely before 10 am. It will remain cloudy and cool the rest of Thursday with temperatures hovering near 40, but a massive push of warmth is coming for Friday. The surge of mild weather, a full blown "El Torchy" that will include gusty southwest winds, 60-plus temperatures, and intervals of clouds and sun. Also included in the Friday package of weather is a bit of rain. Showers mostly, but even a thunderstorm is possible in what appears to be a early season convective set up.
The potential thunderstorms are associated with this aforementioned Rocky Mountain originating storm that will ultimately pass well to our north Friday night. A very sharp, very strong cold front will then bring temperatures well below freezing across the Vermont high country and they will stay there for much of the weekend. Saturday's cold will be accompanied by flurries and some gusty northwest winds. Winds Sunday will be calmer but readings could be down in the single numbers into the morning before rebounding to about 30 degrees.
The cold will moderate after Sunday but we might struggle see outright spring-like temps for a bit. I mean without lift service we might as well turn the EPO negative finally !!!
EPO Analysis / Forecast
But as I mentioned, it will actually be western Canada experiencing the full impact of this more wintry pattern. Vermont will be colder but will likely simply see temperatures closer to normal. A potentially strong weather system will impact parts of the east coast Wednesday. This storm does have the capability of bringing wet snow to Vermont and possibly a significant amount. I will certainly keep an eye on that system which will then be followed more relatively seasonable March weather.
If its the milder weather you're actually hoping for given our present state of circumstances we might get a bit more of that as we get to the last full weekend of March or in early April. Our little respite from the positive EPO will last about a week but is expected to resume its 2020 state of remaining mostly positive which means a fast flowing west to east Pacific jet stream. The Arctic Oscillation meanwhile just keep spewing out positive numbers. This is more or less the reverse of the 2009-10 winter which saw a persistently negative AO which set the stage for the Mid-Atlantic snowmageddon.
The world in which we lived has obviously taken a very dark turn over the past few weeks as the threat of this virus has gotten very real. Plenty of folks, with more expertise, can give you all the advice about how you should act and what you should or shouldn't do. All I can stress is that I love being part of this Mad River Glen skiing community and I have faith we will use every bit of mental toughness to get through this. The world might look different at the other end and certain things might never be the same but we will persist. Our values as a community will most definitely endure and transcend all of this. Be generous, respectful and helpful toward one another but we do that anyway so keep doing it !
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
It's a mostly rain event Friday and more very mild air is poised to invade New England between March 19-21
The non-wintry outlook remains in place through the middle of March. Temperatures are a bit closer to seasonable levels as of Wednesday, March 11 and should stay that way over the next week or so. As I suspected however, the late week weather system appears to be mostly rain. The wet weather will arrive early Friday (just before dawn) and it follows a mostly cloudy day Thursday. The rain could be mixed with a few wet snowflakes on the mountain but temperatures should hold steady in the mid to high 30's. We can expect a bit less than a half inch of rainfall overall and it should end rather abruptly late in the ski day.
We have a bit of modified arctic air that will work its way into northern New England in the wake of Friday's rain. It will be a bit blustery Saturday but temperatures will remain very March-like with readings in the 30's on the mountain during the day and falling off into the 20's Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday will be two of the more winter-like days on the mountain with temperatures staying mostly below freezing during the day and falling well into the teens during the night. Fortunately the Saturday through Monday period will feature healthy doses of sunshine and Sunday and Monday will should see relatively calm winds.
Before temperatures modify during the middle of the week, we actually could see a bit of snowfall, quite possibly even the biggest snowfall of the month (which isn't saying much in this pattern). The warm-up late in the week however appears intense and is likely to feature another multiple day stretch of 50-plus temperatures (perhaps even warmer) and some additional rainfall.
The large ridge positioned over the Gulf of Alaska which has been generally driving the early melt-off is expected to migrate toward the Bering Sea by around the time of the Spring Equinox. Though it won't put the focus of cold on New England it will result in more cold weather in North America as a whole with some of this reaching Vermont. The snow potential is likely to remain low through the weekend of March 21st and 22nd but some is certainly possible in the week that follows.
We have a bit of modified arctic air that will work its way into northern New England in the wake of Friday's rain. It will be a bit blustery Saturday but temperatures will remain very March-like with readings in the 30's on the mountain during the day and falling off into the 20's Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday will be two of the more winter-like days on the mountain with temperatures staying mostly below freezing during the day and falling well into the teens during the night. Fortunately the Saturday through Monday period will feature healthy doses of sunshine and Sunday and Monday will should see relatively calm winds.
Before temperatures modify during the middle of the week, we actually could see a bit of snowfall, quite possibly even the biggest snowfall of the month (which isn't saying much in this pattern). The warm-up late in the week however appears intense and is likely to feature another multiple day stretch of 50-plus temperatures (perhaps even warmer) and some additional rainfall.
The large ridge positioned over the Gulf of Alaska which has been generally driving the early melt-off is expected to migrate toward the Bering Sea by around the time of the Spring Equinox. Though it won't put the focus of cold on New England it will result in more cold weather in North America as a whole with some of this reaching Vermont. The snow potential is likely to remain low through the weekend of March 21st and 22nd but some is certainly possible in the week that follows.
Monday, March 9, 2020
A mostly non-snowy outlook remains in place for northern Vermont but there a few items worth watching
The corn horn soundeth and did so in resounding fashion beginning on Sunday. Monday was a fantastic day on the hill thanks to sunshine and though we will have a bit more in the way of cloudiness on Tuesday, the balmy, near 50 degree readings will continue. Most importantly, I think a good chunk of Tuesday will be precipitation-free. Yes, there will be some occasional light rain and that will intensify late in or after the ski day but for much of the day, the rain will be confined to the St Lawrence Valley or Adirondacks. This rain is associated with a cold front that will bring temperatures back below freezing by Wednesday morning and those more seasonable temperatures will be with us for the rest of the week.
The forecast as a whole continues to be rather non-wintry though there are a few items worth watching over the next two weeks. Following a pair of mostly dry weather days both Wednesday and Thursday, with only minimal amounts of sun, a significant weather system will impact the region on Friday. Recall that it was Friday that was highlighted as a possible time frame where some wintry weather might impact Vermont in spite of the prevailing mild pattern. In the aggregate the forecast for Friday has warmed and precipitation appears to be rain but the Monday afternoon American model suggested a scenario that included a stronger coastal low and some potential wet snow. This situation is worth watching but I am very skeptical of the snowier scenario and the recent run of the European Model suggested this would be a very tough ask. That said, I would approach Friday expecting mostly a cold period of rain but keep an eye on the forecast for changes.
Another 2-3 day period of mostly seasonable temperatures along with some dry weather will follow beginning on Saturday and extending into early next week. There should be a decent amount of sunshine in this period but temperatures will be well below freezing during the overnights and only a little above freezing by day and this will limit some of our beloved corn snow. Temperatures are again likely to get milder as next week progresses and additional rainfall is possible during the middle or later part of the week.
Looking at the weather pattern as a whole, the biggest feature in the collection of mostly adverse set of teleconnection indicators, is a the strength of the jet stream ridge that is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Alaska. This certainly does not encourage any widespread outbreaks of cold in eastern North America and much of the unsettled weather and snowfall will be focused on the Rocky Mountain west for much of the middle to end of March. That said, the strength of this aforementioned ridge will allow notable amounts of arctic air to spill into much of Canada. As we approach the spring equinox the cold in Canada will become intense enough to make some in roads into northern New England and I thus think the period between March 21st (A Saturday) and March 28 will be colder and potentially more wintry verses what we have seen so far this month.
The forecast as a whole continues to be rather non-wintry though there are a few items worth watching over the next two weeks. Following a pair of mostly dry weather days both Wednesday and Thursday, with only minimal amounts of sun, a significant weather system will impact the region on Friday. Recall that it was Friday that was highlighted as a possible time frame where some wintry weather might impact Vermont in spite of the prevailing mild pattern. In the aggregate the forecast for Friday has warmed and precipitation appears to be rain but the Monday afternoon American model suggested a scenario that included a stronger coastal low and some potential wet snow. This situation is worth watching but I am very skeptical of the snowier scenario and the recent run of the European Model suggested this would be a very tough ask. That said, I would approach Friday expecting mostly a cold period of rain but keep an eye on the forecast for changes.
Another 2-3 day period of mostly seasonable temperatures along with some dry weather will follow beginning on Saturday and extending into early next week. There should be a decent amount of sunshine in this period but temperatures will be well below freezing during the overnights and only a little above freezing by day and this will limit some of our beloved corn snow. Temperatures are again likely to get milder as next week progresses and additional rainfall is possible during the middle or later part of the week.
Looking at the weather pattern as a whole, the biggest feature in the collection of mostly adverse set of teleconnection indicators, is a the strength of the jet stream ridge that is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Alaska. This certainly does not encourage any widespread outbreaks of cold in eastern North America and much of the unsettled weather and snowfall will be focused on the Rocky Mountain west for much of the middle to end of March. That said, the strength of this aforementioned ridge will allow notable amounts of arctic air to spill into much of Canada. As we approach the spring equinox the cold in Canada will become intense enough to make some in roads into northern New England and I thus think the period between March 21st (A Saturday) and March 28 will be colder and potentially more wintry verses what we have seen so far this month.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
