Melt most of our snow, open Rt 108 to Smuggs and like magic, the heaviest accumulating snow event for the high country appears !

We are about halfway through April 2021 and daytime temperatures are averaging almost 8 degrees higher than all of April 2020. The outlook for the coming 10 days does look a bit cooler relative to average and won't include another succession of 70-degree temperatures but it won't change a final outcome of a warm and dry month. The latter characteristic is of growing concern going into a summer that I already expect will be on the dry side. I don't update the blog in mid-April for dry weather however, I update for snow and a storm that could prove to bring the largest accumulating snow of the season to Sugarbush and Mad River Glen this season. And it wouldn't be right if it didn't involve another late inning northward shift. 

We are obviously way out of our climatological winter and the storm in question is not working with any impressive area of polar chill.  But this is an impressive storm and a supportive, very blocked weather pattern and we have a northward shift so its game on. As of Wednesday (April 14), we already have a closed upper level low slowly advancing eastward out of the western Great Lakes and now feel very good about an infusion of sub-tropical synoptic energy early Thursday. Temperatures will still be mild for most of Thursday across the MRV and all of Vermont for that matter but as the storm phases and deepens throughout the day, it will manufacture its own kind of cold air, the kind that allows it to snow in mid-April. So, we can expect rain during the afternoon and evening hours and then start seeing some snow, first at high elevations and eventually even at lower elevations during the evening hours, just as it begins to get dark. The best zone for snow is in Vermont but still appears to be in central and southern Vermont and into the Berkshires for now. This favorable snow zone however has been shifting north with each succession of model runs however and the MRV high country is only about 40-50 miles away from the bullseye zone as of Wednesday afternoon.

Because the cold air is very "storm manufactured", the snow will be very gloppy in nature, even at high elevations. Atmospheric cross-sections reveal very little change in temperature with elevation but there will be some (heck there is always some). Taking some of the high res data at face value would indicate that temperatures Friday morning are 32-34 below 1500 feet and maybe 28-30 above 3000 feet. So, we could at least get close to some drier snow if one can themselves up toward the summits. The snow Thursday night into Friday is no joke however. Can you believe this could be the biggest accumulating snow event of the season ? I will never not welcome such a storm but there's a little SMH in all this since we just saw one of the earliest Rt 108 >Smuggs opening in a while and are currently working with very limited open skiable terrain in VT. Mother nature doesn't care however, it will do what it wants to do. In valley locations up to the base of MRG this appears to be a 4-12 inch event, but above 2000 feet, 10-20 inches is looking more and more likely. In this best "snow zone" across central and southern Vermont, upwards of 2 feet or more appears likely in some of the high elevation areas. The snow is expected to be heaviest early Friday morning and taper off to snow showers or snow flurries by late Friday afternoon. 

The storm will also put an end to a rather impressive run of mild weather that we saw through much of early April. The weather pattern appears to be a bit more unsettled generally and more seasonable on the temperatures side. This essentially means a bunch of sub-freezing nights and above freezing days. The upcoming storm will  help with our precipitation deficit and models indicate that we could sea a bit more in the next 10 days though there are no glaring indications of heavy rain or snow after Friday. 

Enjoy the spring snow

April Fools storm update and a cooler outlook for the first two weeks of the month

 So, one of the better snow events over the past month continues to headline the forecast for the start of April. The outlook for the first 2 weeks of the month generally continues to cool but the April 1-3 period is almost certainly going to be the coldest, most wintry period of the month with not just snow but powder snow falling not only over the high country but low lying locations as well. 

Mild weather and some much needed rain is expected for Wednesday evening. Many locations in northern Vermont are still below an inch of for the month and running deficits now can cause problems later in the summer. The rain Wednesday evening should place many of those same locations above an inch for the month but of more significance is a regenerated area of low pressure that is expected to take shape near Cape Cold early Thursday as temperatures turn abruptly colder in Vermont. Looking at some atmospheric soundings, rain could actually turn to a period of sleet during the morning and then moderate to occasionally heavy snow during the midday and afternoon hours. Temperatures will drop close to the freezing mark during the morning but continue to fall during the afternoon supporting the aforementioned colder snow consistency throughout the MRV. The steady snow will taper to snow showers Thursday night and I still like the of a 4-8 inch grand total by Friday morning at Mad River Glen and Sugarbush. From Stowe, northward to Jay Peak, 6-10 inches appears more likely. Friday is a blustery, cold almost January-like day with temperatures in the teens during the morning and mostly in the twenties during the day, in spite of some sunny intervals. You never say never in northern New England but I would guess Friday is the last true sub-freezing day we see this winter. The outlook does look colder as I mentioned beyond April 3 but not that cold. 

We can expect some strong winds of 20-30 mph across high elevations late Thursday and into Friday and although that will subside over the weekend, the wind will not die out altogether. Temperatures are also expected to moderate more gradually, only readings the high 30's Saturday and 40's on Sunday. Our expected weather pattern has shifted a little thanks to the reemergence of an old friend, a blocking structure across the Labrador Sea and Davis Strait region. This is similar to a feature that dominated the weather pattern for 6 weeks in December and through a good part of January this past year. In this case, storms are expected to tunnel underneath this structure and the question relates to what particular region of mid-latitude North America gets impacted by such storminess. It could be northern New England which would mean perhaps an elevation sensitive snowfall and some needed precipitation or it could be further south impacting the Mid-Atlantic states. In either case, the weather looks cooler in Vermont though not necessarily cold. A storm is retrograde westward late this weekend into early next week, ultimately positioning itself south of Nova Scotia Monday and Tuesday before finally being swept eastward. The presence of this feature will keep wind and some cloudiness over Vermont in this period and will also keep temperatures generally in the 40's most days. Storminess, if we get it, could arrive by late in the week but models are very split on that idea. It looked unlikely in the last update however, at least through April 9 and it's at least possible now. Beyond April 9th, much of eastern North America looks normal to cool which is certainly a change relative to what was expected in early April a week ago. 

Going to do one more general update (unless a storm shows up) early next week so I'll wish everyone a happy Easter now and thanks for the outpouring a well wishes in the last update. Was very surprised to see so many responses there and I certainly appreciate it.

Winter set to deliver us one more big blast late this week following a mild Tuesday/Wednesday

 The snow was flying once again early Monday across the northern Vermont high country accompanied by strong northwest winds and it won't be the last time we see these types of weather conditions this week. That said, the strong dose of spring last week was a bit too much for the snowpack on the mountain to endure and lift operations at MRG have come to a close for 2021. Though the outlook has trended a little colder for early April, with interior New England perhaps one of the few regions of the country that could experience winter weather over the next week, there isn't evidence of a "bring us back from the dead" type of storm in the outlook. If you miss real winter weather however, you will get at least one good last shot late Thursday into Friday and it won't just be wet gloppy, spring snow. 

In the near term, we will see a classic March roller coaster ride. The wind and cold is here Monday and gone by midday Tuesday, displaced by calmer winds, sunshine and temperatures near 60. Another warm day is set to follow for Wednesday though we can expect clouds to be on the increase and rain to arrive late in the day along with brisk southerly winds.  The surge of cold late this week though is impressive and early April is known for such a wide variety of weather conditions almost anywhere in the northeast. The mild Wednesday temperatures will linger into Wednesday night and even into very early Thursday as another 0.25-0.50 of rain falls across northern Vermont. Colder air then arrives quite dramatically with temperatures nosediving into the 20's during the day Thursday and even into the teens across the high country by late in the day. Along with those falling temperatures, we will see gusty northwest winds and snowfall. Once again we have a late-blooming coastal system that is responsible for a good part of our expected weather conditions late Thursday. If we can get this system energized and more organized a bit sooner, we might see more impressive amounts of snow but for now it looks like a 4-8 inch situation above 2000 feet  by Friday morning with lesser amounts in the valley. I might point out however that the snow consistency will be powdery and should stay that way through most of a sub-freezing and windy day Friday, a day when snow showers could actually continue through most of the ski day. 

The outlook going forward has shifted to the colder side for the early part of April. Mild air is still expected to dominate much of North America but those warmer temperatures are shown to impact northern New England less, and portions of the mid-continent more. In spite of that, sustaining sub-freezing temperatures is very difficult this time of the year and after a very winter-like day Friday, readings should again reach 40 degrees on both weekend days. Disagreement has then emerged with the European showing a sizable and stagnated weather system over the Canadian martimes keeping the weather both cool and somewhat unsettled throughout New England while the American is showing a more progressive and milder outlook beginning late this weekend and extending through much of next week. Using the Canadian ensembles as the tiebreaker here, one would have to favor the cooler and slightly more unsettled outlook in the April 4-9 time frame but in either case, there is no major precipitation producer indicated through April 9 aside from the rain/snow indicated for late Wednesday into Thursday of this week. 

With Mad River closing lift operations, I have about enough energy for 1-2 more updates before we conclude with an end of season summary. Covid restrictions certainly hurt my ski day count this year but our 1 month old daughter had plenty of demands also and kept me pretty busy. Hope everyone enjoyed the season and I will extend my thanks to all the operational staff for making a season possible.

Potential snow event early next week belly flops but at least we get some much needed rain

The weather this month is proving yet again that March is the time for the widest variety of weather conditions. It feels as if it's been pretty mild especially considering the glaring lack of snowfall or any kind of "fall" but temperatures are still just a touch below average thanks to 2 days where readings failed to break the 15 degree mark. So March 2021 will likely turn out relatively close to average including the aforementioned bitterly cold mid-winter type days and a day (Thursday, March 25th) where readings approached 70. May of last year continues to fascinate me and why not. We saw a day, May 9th, where temperatures remained sub-freezing across the northern Vermont high country and we also saw 90 degrees 18 days later in the MRV. May of 2020 is also likely to go down as a snowier month at MRG than this month with the potential storm early next week looking more like a belly flop, SMH. Though I would certainly hesitate to call this winter season a bad one, I will always remember it as a giant "what could have been". 

As mentioned we have also been exceptionally dry this month and we manage to miss out on more rainfall late Wednesday leaving many places with less than a quarter of an inch for the month. I know this is a concern for many outside of our skiing and recreational life as we enter the growing season. Fortunately, the month, for all its lackluster performance on snowfall, will finish on the wetter side with two decent rainfall events. The first tomorrow, stems from the powerful severe weather producing system in the southeast. As a weather enthusiast in college, I found the tornado outbreak of 1974 known as the "Super outbreak" to be utterly fascinating and this setup has many similarities. Being that we will remain in the warm air tomorrow, we could also see thunderstorms on Friday though models suggest much of our rainfall (0.25-0.50) comes from lighter rain as cooler temperatures begin to ooze southward Friday evening. 

Saturday appears to be a very ho hum late March day. Temperatures will get cold enough to firm things up across the highest elevations but temperatures should remain generally above freezing below 2500 feet as clouds give way to limited amounts of sunshine. More cloudiness is then expected for Sunday as the main weather producing storm in this outlook gathers strength. This had the potential to be a snow producer but the pattern will simply not allow this storm to phase along the coast where it would need to. Instead, an elongated area of low pressure will consolidate over interior New England and temperatures will simply not be cold enough to support snow, even across the highest elevations. We should, however, see a decent amount of rainfall, as much an an inch late in the day Sunday into Sunday evening. Snow showers are then possible Monday morning but this is of little consolation. 

Any snow early Monday begins what will be a very typical and tumultuous week of temperature swings. Some cold weather Monday into early Tuesday gives way to milder weather late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensembles have now converged on the idea that we get a rather impressive push of cold to start April (Thursday-Saturday April 1-3) but there are no indications of significant snow yet and the pattern does not support sustained cold. By April 4-5, another round of spring-like weather is likely to begin.

Even with near record breaking warmth Thursday, legitimate storm/snowfall potential has emerged for early next week

As far as non-powdery weather goes, it's hard to beat what happened on Sunday when a full dose of late March sunshine boosted temperatures to 60 degrees in valley areas and 50's across the high country.  At the risk of telling folks what is already well known, we can go long stretches during the spring without weather like this and we've gotten a bunch of it this March including Monday (today) Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Winter it seems, has made a decisive retreat with much of this week looking very warm and the first several days of April also looking very warm. The one exception to the warm outlook would be the last three days of March; when, a surge of colder temperatures now has some accompanying big storm potential. More on that in a bit. 

Ahead of any cold weather during the early part of next week comes comes even milder weather at the end of this week. The sunshine and warm afternoons have been magnificent but could also be described as garden variety early spring warmth. Balmier, tropical-like temperatures will build across the southeast early this week and make a very impressive push northward late this week. A warm front marking the advance of this more intense version of warmth will bring clouds to the region late Wednesday and a few hours of much needed rain Wednesday evening.   If the clouds break on Thursday as models now suggest then El Torchy will envelop all of Vermont in record-breaking style with temperatures soaring to near 70 degrees in low lying areas (away from the chilled Lake Champlain),  and well into the 60's even at 2000 feet. El Torchy will also keep temperatures mostly in the 50's Thursday night into early Friday  when at that time a significant weather system from our southwest brings clouds and rainfall to all of northern New England. 

Colder Canadian air will be trying to work its way southward during the weather event on Friday leaving temperatures a bit uncertain during the day. Those colder temperatures, which will arrive early Saturday a the latest are only likely to bring temperatures back to sub-freezing levels above 2500 feet or so with readings hovering closer at 2000 feet or less. Readings will fall back to sub-freezing levels Saturday night as the pattern puts the pieces in place for one more big March amplification late on Sunday and into Monday. 

The situation early next week does not include any widespread surge of arctic cold but rather two benign looking weather disturbances that appear poised for a major league phase along the northeast coast on Monday, March 29th. I was skeptical when seeing hints of this over the weekend but the idea of a big storm now has support from all three major ensemble packages with uncertainly relating more to the track/positioning of the phased and rapidly intensifying storm early Monday. So yes, the situation early next week could all fall apart as many of the big storm setups have for northern Vermont this year but I will venture to say that it will be the track of the storm that would fail us rather than the presence of said storm. If a phased storm bombs either right on top of us or too far to our south (as a few have this year) we would certainly end up on the short end of the snowfall measuring stick. I will also point out that El Torchy will put a massive dent in our snowpack Thursday and will leave conditions pretty thin in many places this weekend. North-facing and shady locations can survive sunshine, calm winds and low dewpoints even when temperatures are warm but the airmass this Thursday will have higher dewpoints and some stronger snow-eating winds.  

More warmth is also showing up in the outlook for early April, powered by the suddenly continued presence of a positive AO. The +AO can have an early April bash as far as I am concerned so long as it retreats by next winter.                                                                                                                                                         

Winter appears ready for a major retreat following one last blustery/chilly Friday

 Less than a tenth of an inch of mixed precipitation fell Thursday morning, adding very little to what has been a very dry month so far and a mostly snowless one as well. Plug the forecast in for the next two weeks and not much will change. Most of next week looks very dry and warm and though the last 5 days of the month (beginning Saturday March 27th) appear cooler and a bit more unsettled, there are no indications of a return to mid-winter conditions or a big storm. 

The big severe weather producing storm that ravaged parts of the south with a tornado outbreak Wednesday night will get suppressed by a quicker moving polar jet disturbance. The two weather features are not in phase and thus another potential big winter storm goes by the wayside. Though this has been anticipated for several days, it is no less frustrating for those hoping for the big March storm we've become accustomed to. Friday could be one of the final mostly sub-freezing days of the season with gusty north winds (15-30 mph) and temperatures remaining in the 20's. Those that appreciate the sunshine and excellent visibility should be happy with Friday, the start of what we expect to be succession of very sunny March days. 

Temperatures will moderate as the weekend progresses. Winds will soften a bit for Saturday as temperatures rise toward the 40 degree mark. Sunday then looks outstanding with minimal wind and afternoon temperatures up around 50 with a full dose of sunshine and perfect visibility. Sunday is actually the beginning of a spring weather setup that should feature several days (through Wednesday 3/24) where readings reach or exceed 50. This setup along the east coast will include some clouds, but those clouds should be confined to the Mid-Atlantic or coastal/southern New England while interior areas bask in sunshine. I've gotten pretty accustomed to seeing this type of weather in April and especially May in Vermont and it is clearly one of our most effective ways of steering clear of rotten spring east coast weather. In 2021 it looks like such a setup is coming early. One change from the Monday update relates to the intensity of the warmth. Though almost every day in the Monday-Friday time frame looks to be at least 50 at the base, 60-degrees looks elusive and we are likely to avoid the El Torchy like conditions capable of producing the stronger warmth. Though this will assuredly be magnificent early spring weather in Vermont, each of these mornings will feature sub-freezing temperatures and it will thus take a few hours for snow conditions to soften. As for the sunshine, we should see plenty of that through Wednesday as I mentioned, more clouds are likely late in the week with the best chance for any rainfall coming Friday. 

A return to some form of colder temperatures is likely during the weekend of the 27th and 28th appears likely but this appears to consist of very ordinary late March weather conditions including 40-45 degree days along with sub-freezing nights. Ahead of April 1st, I expect maybe one more day with accumulating snowfall but that is about the best I can give readers. Spring appears to be coming in hard and fast this year.

Dry weather dominates the rest of the week with another spring onslaught looking more likely next week

 If I officially declare this as the "give up on the winter" update, you might as well pencil in the April two footer somewhere into the calendar. Though the first half of the month has seen below normal temperatures in northern Vermont, in spite of the torch last week, it has been unusually dry with most of these same locations seeing less than a quarter inch of melted precipitation. This means that new natural snowfall has been elusive. I've actually been pretty amazed at the amount of sunshine across the northeast both during the warm and cold weather days. It is unusual for March almost anywhere in the northeast. 

So, if you're a fan of winter weather, this is not the update for you. Winter has returned to firm things up across the northern Vermont high country and is expected to remain mostly in place through Saturday with the exception of a few afternoons. Snowfall however appears to be one giant miss. The remnants of the giant Colorado snowstorm will evolve into a very meager overrunning type system and track well south of Vermont late on Tuesday. I am a little surprised that this system is expected to make so little northward progress as it progresses east but March is full of absolute randomness when it comes to how the weather behaves, often defying conventional wisdom by not aligning with what a forecaster might expect in a given weather pattern. The late week storm continues to look intriguing with a potent polar impulse just out ahead of an even more impressive southern streamer. This could have been the big elusive storm for northern Vermont but the two jet stream features are out of phase with the polar impulse arriving out in front of the southern branch feature and effectively flattening the pattern and keeping the track of this storm further south. A strong dose of sunshine on Tuesday will bring temperatures from near zero in the morning to near the freezing mark during the afternoon and we will improve on that on Wednesday with readings up near the 40-degree mark at the base. That potential late week storm will bring some clouds into the region Thursday but unless we see some big changes with how these two jet stream impulses interact, the mild air early Thursday will simply give way to cold dry air on Friday with very little snowfall during this transition. Sunshine looks to be another dominant force for the upcoming weekend, again helping temperatures recover from single digit start on Saturday to 35-40 and well into the 40's on Sunday. 

The "give up on the winter" vibe comes from what now appears to be a very mild week beginning on Monday March 22nd. The outlook was already trending warmer in this time period several days ago and it now looks like the 2nd big spring onslaught of the month with 60 degree readings possible on 2 days and 50 degree readings for as many as 4 days. The duration and intensity of the warmth stems from and depends on the evolution of another big weather system in the southern Rockies, this time further south.If the weather stays unsettled in this region of the country for an extended period of time it has the effect of pushing temperatures warmer over a large swatch of eastern North America and longer range forecast models are really keying in on that now. The European/Canadian ensembles are suggesting a cool down for the last weekend of March while the GFS Ensembles do not but the pattern overall does not support sustained amounts of winter weather at mid-latitudes, at least over North America after we pass the Spring Equinox.