Change back to snow and to winter comes Sunday with storm potential on Jan 6-7

As of late December, La Nina has strengthened slightly and is currently edging out last year's version by a tenth of a degree C. Measured in terms of weather pattern behavior however, this year's version appears more amplified and has had a very negative impact on winter weather on the east coast, especially from the Mid-Atlantic states southward. The southern Appalachians might as well be a tropical destination this past month as temperatures have hardly been sub-freezing and dewpoints have recently soared to near 60-degrees with accompanying heavy rain and thunderstorms. La Nina has always been a mixed bag in Vermont. Though we typically perform way better than the areas mentioned above, we have also experienced a few clunkers such as 1988-89 and 2011-2012. Though we appear to be heading toward another "clunker", the weather pattern does appear favorable for a half way decent stretch of winter in Vermont through about the first half of January. This is a critical stretch for us since we have some jet stream blocking in the Arctic and have managed to tame the Pacific jet stream for a time. I certainly don't expect these conditions to persist indefinitely this year and we thus need to make something happen and soon. 

Not much good will come from our New Year's weekend weather situation but there are worse results than this one. Most of the wet weather from multiple waves of low pressure will pass to our south and New Year's Day will feature just some spotty light rain or drizzle with temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark across much of the northern Vermont high country. A push of colder temperatures will reach the MRV early Sunday as another in a series of low pressure waves passes to our south. Light rain will become freezing rain and sleet for a time and eventually turn to snow sometime during the ski day. 1-3 inches is likely from all this but there continues to be the risk we get screwed entirely. 

Portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and SE Mass, which have seen little to no winter so far, might receive a bit of snowfall fall from a rapidly strengthening low pressure center off the coast. This is a big whiff for Vermont, but big offshore storms are the best way to get the sun out and visibility improved in Vermont during the winter months and we should see a healthy dose of sunshine to go along with chilly 15-20 degree temperatures. Sunshine will be back for part of Tuesday and will help to warm readings back into the 20's before warm advection clouds advance back into the region. The window for milder potentially above-freezing temperatures appears short and confined mostly to valley locations on Wednesday. Even better is the potential for a big winter storm late Thursday Jan 6th into Friday the 7th. It's a delicate situation involving arctic air spilling south and a rapidly amplifying jet stream. There's also some lingering mild air along the immediate coastline as another potential monkey wrench. Still, the ensembles are showing a nice consensus for a decent event and interior New England appears to be the best location for results. Operational models have and will continue to be noisy for the next few days but more clarity should arrive within a few days. It's the best chance we've had all winter for a decent storm but it remains a "chance" for now and not yet likely. 

Whatever happens Thursday into Friday, the storm and the associated polar jet amplification sets the stage for a cold and mostly dry weekend with readings falling to near zero Friday and struggling to reach 10 on the mountain Saturday January 8th. Reading should moderate somewhat by Sunday the 9th. 

The marginally favorable pattern described in the first paragraph appears somewhat encouraging for Vermont but does not appear capable of sustaining arctic cold in the Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic states. We can put a positive spin on this situation by suggesting that an overwhelmingly cold pattern is often not a particularly snowy one in Vermont in January. The widespread area of cold across eastern North America is expected to quickly give way to normal and even above normal temperatures in some areas to our south. Meanwhile the center of the polar vortex will reposition itself in eastern Canada, keeping much of New England and especially Vermont within Vermont's reach. We should thus see a reinforcing shot of winter chill around January 10th and 11th with additional chances at least lighter snowfall throughout that 2nd full week of January. 

Weekend weather is mostly wet with only a chance it ends as snow late Sunday but early January pattern appears decent overall

The weather we have seen during this back half of December 2021 can be described as La Nina to the extreme. Cold, unsettled weather over parts of the west coast with snow in the mountains, extremely mild weather along the Gulf Coast and southeast U.S. and lots of cloudiness and marginal precipitation events in the northeast. Though we may have successfully retained a little sense of winter in northern Vermont, it hasn't been much of a consolation prize especially considering recent underperformance and another wet weather event on a holiday weekend. This is classic La Nina however and if we can just move the battle lines 100-200 miles to the south, our performance would improve dramatically. 

Much of the southeast is finishing the warmest December on record and the ridge responsible for much of this weather continues to push weak, disorganized surface features in our general direction. These have been difficult to predict and have been under-delivering as I mentioned above.  Some occasional light snow is still expected both Thursday and Thursday night but accumulations appear insignificant. Meanwhile the weekend weather event will begin to take shape as a stretched area of low pressure along the already established southwest to northeast temperature boundary. The first area of low pressure will approach New Years Eve and we will thus see another day of cloudiness and some light afternoon/evening snow eventually giving way to some freezing rain or drizzle by early New Years Day. This initial wave is weaker but is nonetheless critical since it will ultimately track well into Quebec and allow milder air to infiltrate the critical levels of our lower troposphere ahead of the primary weather producing storm. 

I had hoped that some low level cold could make a push southward on New Years Day keeping sleet and snow in our equation for the weekend. We've gotten some good news as the track of this stronger area of low pressure appears farther south, perhaps tracking right through the heart of central New England but the cold ingredients are behind the system making snow a difficult ask. Temperatures on New Years Day are likely to hang out near or just above the freezing mark though it does look like we will keep much of the ski day dry though it will stay very overcast. Rain and a few pockets of freezing rain are likely to arrive during the evening New Years Day (Saturday) and continue into the overnight. Perhaps we can keep the rain on the lighter side and minimize the amount of total wet weather but whatever falls Saturday night is not likely to be good. All might not be lost with this storm however. Energy with this storm is eventually expected to consolidate around the trailing area of low pressure and if that passes to our southeast, another area of precipitation later Sunday into Sunday night might still start wet but finish as a period of decent snowfall before Monday morning. We need another few rounds of model data to sort through some of those details. 

We do know that the first full work day of 2022 (Monday, Jan 3) will feature wintry temperatures with readings generally holding in the teens during the day and falling into the single numbers during the overnight. Flurries and snow showers are likely during the day Monday but we should also see some intervals of sunshine and we haven't seen much of that this week and don't expect any this weekend. More sunshine and even better visibility is then expected to Tuesday accompanying some very typical January chill. The cold weather is likely to continue into Wednesday before temperatures moderate ahead of another system likely to advance into the Great Lakes. The late in the week period between January 6th-7th again appears marginal with milder air attempting to push northward into New England. We could get a better result ahead of the Jan 8-9 weekend but could also see another mixed bag of weather. 

On the state of the weather pattern more generally, there are some aspects you have to like. The jet stream in the Pacific through much of early January appears relatively loose and combine that with the blocking structure in the Chukchi Sea region of the arctic and cold air will assuredly push southward and impact much of the United States, especially the northern half of the country. Along the east coast, it's just a question of warding off the negative effects of the pesky Nina southeast ridge. I would expect at least some snow to accompany the inbound arctic air around the weekend of January 8-9 (perhaps as early as January 7) and this will be followed by several days of below normal temperatures. Interestingly, ensembles indicate that the southward moving polar vortex will bounce (for lack of a better word) off the southeast ridge and eventually land in eastern Canada. This would place Vermont in a pretty good spot for winter weather in the middle part of January but the wait has been long and agitation is understandably high (I know it is for me). 

Clouds, light snow and some mixed precipitation dominate the outlook for the rest of this week while a bigger storm brings snow potential for the New Years weekend

I endured my first significant bust of the season with a Christmas Storm that featured way more ice and way too little snow relative to my outlook and more importantly to our collective approval. This weather pattern is not providing any time to wallow in forecast sorrows as a very active weather is expected over the next week. The jet stream ridge in the southeastern U.S. is proving durable, even when faced with increased amounts of polar energy and we thus have a situation where we will be in the path of many weather systems. We will undoubtedly get some snow in this setup but also be faced with more marginal situations comprised of mid-level mild intrusions leading to more sleet and ice. 

We have enough cold air in place Monday night to support a period of light snow and 1-3 inches, mostly in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Clouds and some of that light snow will continue into early Tuesday but I expect visibility to improve some as the day progresses and as winds shift to a more westerly direction and a weakened area of high pressure builds in from the north. Fair weather breaks will be very short-lived in this regime and especially this week and any clearing late Tuesday will be followed by increasing clouds early Wednesday in advance of a weak area of low pressure approaching from the west. We can expect mostly clouds, sub-freezing temperatures and calm winds Wednesday with precipitation holding off until Wednesday night. Another marginal precipitation situation awaits us Wednesday night into Thursday when, if we were to see heavy enough precipitation, we could see a decent period of snow. At least right now, precipitation is indicated to be fairly light however opening the door for another "mixed precipitation" situation. Temperature profiles do appear a little colder than they did over Christmas but as I mentioned, precipitation appears lighter and I would guess that we see a little bit of everything between late Wednesday night and early Thursday amounting to 1 or 2 inches of an icy conglomerate. 

The most significant east coast weather system we have seen in a while is now expected to impact the region New Years Day and into January 2nd (which makes up the entirety of New Years weekend).  Though we are still awaiting to unravel some critical details, there could be multiple areas of low pressure involved and a variety of precipitation types though I am increasingly confident we can keep it all frozen in our part of Vermont. A modified area of arctic cold is expected to fight its way into interior New England on New Years eve following Thursday's precipitation and provide us with decent enough area of low level cold to support a solid front-end thump of snow on New Years Day. Much will hinge on critical details as I mentioned and although an epic 1-2 footer is unlikely with this event based on the current projected storm track, 6-12 powdery inches takes up some decent space in the possibility spectrum. This would be followed by the potential for some mixed precipitation Saturday night (still Jan 1) and into Sunday followed by the potential for some additional snow late Sunday into early Monday. The strongest area of cold this season should then makes its way into New England for January 3rd and keep us very chilly though at least the 5th. 

As I mentioned a few days ago, the emergence of the Chukchi Sea block on all of the ensemble simulations is one of the more noteworthy jet stream features on the early January 2022 weather map. It is almost a certainty that intense arctic air will plunge southward in North America but the Chukchi Sea is pretty good distance from eastern North America even when measuring in jet stream long waves. New England will again not be the focal point for the extreme cold and this type of setup will continue to allow the ridge in the southeastern U.S. to flourish and leave Vermont in the continued battleground area of weather. After a few days of cold weather between January 3-5, we might face another marginal scenario where a storm system is attempting to force mild air into New England around January 6-7 and this would be followed by another round of colder arctic air. I fully expect our snow depth to be in a much better situation than it is now in two weeks time but it will be a bumpy ride and there is no clear evidence of a home-run event as of now. 

Snow, some freezing rain/drizzle expected for Christmas Day and a more promising outlook around New Year's

 There's a lot to unpack in this rapidly Evolving weather situation across northern Vermont and yes I capitalized "Evolving" on purpose for emphasis. It's about to get very cold in the Pacific Northwest, a ton of snow is falling around Lake Tahoe and our friends in Aspen got a little taste of what it's like in a typical east coast ski season - it rained !  A rare occurrence in Colorado above 8000 feet, but it rained for several hours Wednesday evening and night and although it is expected to snow Christmas Eve, wet weather is not something that ski town is used to in any winter month. The system responsible for Colorado's weather will move east quickly and bring Vermont its share of weather on Christmas Day. The details continue to change very rapidly. 

 First of all relates to the timing. The whole event was a question mark a few days ago and was initially pegged as a late Christmas Day, early on the 26th light snow situation.   Precipitation is now expected by dawn on Christmas Day. This is a very disorganized storm and is moving quickly but is expected to get an infusion of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally there are healthy low and mid level frontogenetics in place from the strongest area of arctic cold we have seen this season (temps fell close to zero early Xmas Eve in northern VT). In spite of the strong area of surface cold, milder mid level air is expected to chip away and push readings  into the marginal category at around 6000 feet even as it remains sub-freezing closer to our surface. What does this all mean ? Temperatures are close enough to freezing, where it counts, for snow to fall so long as precipitation is heavy enough. When precipitation is lighter, freezing rain or drizzle is possible. Based on some experience I've had with these types of setups, I am going to predict a decent period of snow Christmas morning resulting in a few inches, some light freezing rain or drizzle in the afternoon followed by another period of light snow Christmas night into early Sunday morning the 26th. I think it all totals to about 3-6 conglomeration and I am hopeful that the final inch or two is off the fluffy snow variety. A gentlemen on twitter asked me about the differences between Champlain Valley weather and MRV high country weather and this is one of those instances where we can expect some huge differences. Burlington will get light easterly downsloping winds hurting their ability retain the necessary amounts of low level cold to support snow. Their low elevation will also hold down total precipitation amounts and they will likely struggle to get an inch. Rutland will perform even worse for the same reasons in addition to the fact that they are positioned closer the milder mid-level air. 

We are likely to see more of these marginal situations in the next two weeks with arctic air on the playing field but the southeast U.S. jet stream ridge maintaining a presence and even occasionally surging northward in our direction. Temperatures, especially across the high country, appear to be mostly sub-freezing but it won't guarantee we can keep all precipitation in the form of snow. The next chance for such event appears to be around Tuesday the 28th or Wednesday the 29th with temperatures at critical levels again appearing marginal and varying precipitation types possible. 

There is some decidedly good news involving New Years which appears both colder and potentially snowy across northern Vermont. Models are having a very difficult time dealing with all the fast moving systems and the specifics are therefore very blurry right now but the threat of a thaw appears reduced while the chances for accumulating snow increased in the period between December 31 and January 2. Even with the continued presence of the southeast U.S. ridge the longer range outlook continues to show a decent coverage of arctic air especially over central Canada. Two of the major 3 ensemble packages now indicate a blocking feature in the Chukchi Sea. If this does indeed occur, we will see some very intense arctic chill make a southward push into the U.S. in early January though the focus of this would likely be west of New England. It will mean an interesting start to 2022 to say the least with arctic air likely competing with the southeast U.S. ridge and placing us in the pathway for multiple storms with a variety of outcomes possible.

Uncertainty remains regarding specifics but snowfall over the next 8 days looks better beginning early Christmas Eve

 The White Mountains got a bit of light snow Wednesday morning and parts of interior Maine saw a decent snow event from the mostly offshore storm conglomeration. Vermont was in the unlucky zone this time and aside from snow showers on Wednesday/evening night, our high country under-performed. Our natural snow prospects are looking up generally with several chances emerging or coming into focus beginning early on Christmas Eve. We have a concern around the New Years holiday but I would be inclined to take the "over" on a foot of new snow before Near Years 2022 and the pattern looks favorable for more in the first week of 2022. 

The Hudson Bay is now 80 percent frozen and this is allowing stronger arctic air to infiltrate eastern Canada. Some of that chill will successfully make inroads into northern Vermont Wednesday night into early Thursday and as a result, we can expect the coldest day of the season so far with temperatures holding in the teens across the high country and struggling to 20 in the Valley. Clouds and an area of light snow are expected early on Christmas Eve. The best chance for 2-4 inches appears to be over the Berkshires or southern Vermont but this zone of snowfall has looked better and better over time and 1-3 inches looks likely the MRV as opposed to just possible with all of this coming before the ski day. Of even more interest is what appears to be a healthier area of moisture associated with an approaching storm system late on Christmas Day into Sunday the 26th. Models are having trouble establishing a clear consensus on the outcome here but the American model has, for several runs, indicated a significant snowfall for much of northern Vermont. I want to be optimistic but taken in the aggregate, a significant storm of over 10 inches remains just possible but a light snowfall late on Christmas Day into early on the 26th of at least 3 inches appears likely. The forecast is likely to evolve a bit so stay tuned. 

Interestingly, the models not on board with a storm on the 25th/26th are on board with snowfall Monday/Tuesday the 27th and 28th. So it appears to be a situation where the various forecast simulations are having trouble resolving the complicated interaction of jet stream shortwaves and areas of moisture and surface features. In spite of this uncertainty however, we have the right ingredients for snowfall through December 30th and are in a good spot for snow in a fairly wide range of scenarios. Just a matter of determining the where and the when. 

Where I have some concern is the period around New Years. The big picture jet stream view has a blocking feature in the Hudson Straight around this time while a ridge in the southeast United States experiences from temporary strengthening. I can recall how the Christmas 2020 forecast evolved into a debauchery and will note some similarities. We don't want any storm getting sucked into central Canada to the west of that block and would much prefer a storm that would tunnel through all of that and allow cold air to remain entrenched over Vermont. Ensemble data would seem to suggest a latter scenario for now but I am little nervous. 

Meanwhile the bitterly cold air over North America will maintain an intense focus on western Canada and portions of the Pacific Northwest both around and after Christmas. Most of the big weather headlines that are winter related will be focused on that region of North America but some of that cold is indicated to stretch eastward into early 2022 and impact parts of New England. If we can avoid a New Years thaw, we would be set up well for a productive start to 2022. Congratulations to all for rounding another Winter Solstice. We can never be too certain about weather conditions but we can say that the next 6 months will feature increasing amounts of light so enjoy !

Even as milder weather controls much of the eastern United States this Christmas, winter maintains a grip on Vermont with several chances for light snow in the coming week

A couple runs of the European Model was suggesting a widespread torch on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day over portions of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast. On the heels of the out of season weather last week and last years Christmas monsoon, this caused a bit of a stir in the social media weather back and forth. Though the weather has trended in the "not as cold" direction over Vermont, our outlook still appears pretty solid for winter weather through the holidays. Our biggest concern involves the track of a  potential weather system on December 28th, but taken at face value, sub freezing temperatures appear likely to hold their ground, especially above 2000, where most of us actually ski. 

A clipper system, well to our north will give us a distant hand wave but aside from some flurries or very light snow, we won't see much of anything. If you're desperately looking for that 1-3" then head toward the Canadian border but most of Vermont will just see intervals of clouds and sun on Tuesday with temperatures generally in the 20's. We have better chance of snow early on Wednesday when a strong sub-tropical system off the Atlantic coast begins to team with a stronger polar/pacific impulse. An area of snow will be expanding across eastern New York and interior New England and although the best area of snow clearly appears to be Maine, several hours of light snow is likely across the northern Vermont high country before dawn or at least before the ski day Wednesday. This appears to be a 1-3 situation but additional changes are possible. 

The cold weather will hold its ground across Vermont on Christmas Eve/Day but the milder air will make a big push northward and that process will create a zone of moisture and precipitation across the northeast. In Vermont most of that will fall as snow, so long as the moisture makes it far enough northward before decaying as it runs into dry airmass stationed to our north. The timing of all this appears to be either late on Christmas Eve or early Christmas Day and would amount to another light accumulation for the Christmas ski day if it happens. 

The big picture outlook has trended toward the less cold side. The main reason for this has to do with the bitterly cold air having a specific focus on western North America particularly western Canada. Meanwhile, a blocking ridge will migrate from central Greenland to the Hudson Strait well north of us. Oddly enough (or not so oddly), this pattern appears similar to the jet stream configuration that prevailed in the weeks following Christmas last year. Though much of the Vermont high country remained sub freezing throughout the period and even scored some decent snowfall, temperatures were not bitterly cold and continued to average above normal relative to climatology. 

As mentioned in the opening, there is evidence of another organized storm impacting our region around the 28th. We have what appears to be a soft area of cold weather dominating much of interior New England and eastern Canada around this time and although in the case of Vermont, milder air will make another run at the region, ensembles are suggesting that sub-freezing temperatures hold. This means that the forecast for the holiday week should consist of temperatures in the 20's and 30's for highs and mostly teens for lows. Chances for snow or wintry precipitation are on the aforementioned Tuesday the 28th and again closer to New Years.

6-12 for Saturday with a wintry holiday outlook remaining in place

Our reintroduction to winter on Saturday will be exciting with a beautiful powdery snowfall expected to begin around noon and continue at a slow but steady rate through the overnight and into very early Sunday. It is actually a very straight-forward forecast considering. I know some of the model output maps circulating around social media would indicate that southern Vermont is the best spot for this storm. Perhaps, but I would still prefer to be us. We will be in a colder spot with temperatures closer to 20 on the mountain and temperature profiles indicate no threat of mixing - just a cold powdery snow from start to finish with 1-3 inches late in the ski day Saturday and a storm total of 6-12 inches by the start of the ski day Sunday. Flurries will linger into Sunday but the daytime weather will feature some sunshine, blustery and cold conditions with temperatures around 20 degrees. 

We will have additional chances for snowfall late Monday into Monday night (very light) and again on Wednesday into Wednesday night the 23rd. The polar jet disturbance arriving on Wednesday may interact with a stronger sub-tropical feature off the Atlantic Coastline setting up an inverted trough situation and a decent area of snowfall somewhere across interior New England although it will take another day or two to figure out if 1) that actually happens 2) where that actually happens. We will successfully keep temperatures under the freezing mark for an extended stretch, beginning with Saturday's storm and lasting through Christmas; in fact, the actual Christmas holiday will likely feature the coldest weather of the season so far with the phased storm off shore opening the door for a stronger version of arctic air to enter our forecast picture. Having said this, any cold weather should remain in the garden variety category for Vermont with high temperatures in the teens and 20's. The much below normal cold should remain out in the Pacific Northwest for the time being. 

Some of the above dovetails rather nicely into the longer range outlook which continues to consist of winter-like temperatures of a more garden variety and certainly a few chances for snow between Christmas and New Years. The feature in the jet stream that will help keep New England on the more wintry side is a strong area of unsettled weather positioned south of Newfoundland, directly underneath a blocking feature over Greenland. Northwest flow in the jet stream (over us) is generally considered fair-weather flow but a weak ridge in the central United States will try and push storms up in our direction once or twice. We could also attain a bit of colder moisture from the Canadian Maritimes in this setup were we to miss out on a more organized weather system. The colder more wintry outlook remains in place through both holidays right now and certainly no repeat of last year's rainy Christmas debacle. Enjoy the powdery snow Saturday !