More March 12-13 magic for northern Vermont with powerful storm bringing 16-24 inches Saturday/Saturday evening

It's worth reiterating Monday's bullet point about the pattern going forward this March not appearing especially wintry. But March is the one of the more chaotic months of the year climatologically speaking, and big storms can materialize even when conventional wisdom would suggest they should not. Worth noting how the Martin Luther King holiday was able to magically produce a big snow consistent with some recent tradition. Big storms also seem to a magnet for the March 12-15 period with several years in the last 30 featuring big events in this time frame. Recent data suggests we can do it again, with a fast moving but impressive looking March powerhouse of a storm lined up for the weekend. 

Tranquil weather conditions will lead us to the weekend fireworks. Thursday features some sun with temperatures topping out a few degrees above the freezing mark on the mountain and Friday is a cloudier version of Thursday. Both days should feature decent visibility and it should be noted, very little wind. Our storm will form out of an area of moisture around the southern parishes of Louisiana and move quickly northeastward Friday evening. Dramatic improvements in the forecast stem from the track of this system. Initial concerns relating to the pattern amplifying too far west are now gone and replaced with a near perfect setup and a storm exploding in the Delaware Valley bordering NJ/PA and tracking over metro-Boston and eventually over the downeast region of Maine. It doesn't get much better than a potentially sub 970-mb storm tracking through this corridor. The only downer relates to the fast northeast  movement of the storm, a theme that has been prevalent all winter and likely related to the lack of downstream blocking in the jet stream. I am happily accepting this gift however and given the recent confirmation from ensemble data, this storm appears earmarked for 16-24 inches in the northern Green Mountains, most of it coming during the day Saturday. 

Here are some additional details. The eastward shift in the storm track places us in a much better position to get full access to the storm's moist conveyor. Snow should begin late Friday night or in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday but with fairly marginal temperatures of around or just below the freezing mark. Saturday morning's snow is likely to be wet across valley locations up to about 2000 feet and powdery above 3000 feet. Colder air positioned on the west flank of the storm will ultimately get entrained into Vermont as the storm bombs Saturday and temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's, depending on elevation allowing the snow consistency to turn powdery everywhere. Unlike the event in early February which featured a nearly 2 foot snow and little wind, this storm is considerably more dynamic and will feature increasing amounts of wind as Saturday progresses. It will be cold enough for powder by late in the ski day up and down the mountain, but windy enough amp up the density of the fallen snow overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Snow should continue Saturday evening with some Champlain enhancement during the overnight hours. The speed of the storm is the only thing limiting snow totals to the 16-24", a slower moving storm and we would do more. Sunday is blustery with flurries and snow showers in the morning but skies should clear and sunshine will bring temperatures into the 20's during the afternoon. Monday's temperatures will then reach the 40's as southwesterly winds quickly bring more spring-like temperatures to the MRV. 

After the weekend, the pattern continues to appear milder. There are hints of a weather system on Tuesday (3/15) bringing some precipitation consisting of some initial rain turning to wet snow followed by some seasonable temperatures for the middle of the week. But the weekend of March 19th and 20th is indicated to be mild with the only question relating to whether we can keep the rain away.  There are signs of a return to more normal temperatures by around March 23rd but normal in late March consists of above freezing daytime temperatures.

Some snow is possible for this Saturday but weather pattern does not support any sustained stretches of cold for March

Another very potent round of mild weather, record breaking in this case, and wind put a massive dent in what is left of winter 2022. Though temperatures did cool down on Monday, they didn't cool enough to support snow and only minimal amounts of wet snow is expected over the high country Monday night. From a big picture standpoint, the weather pattern does not support any additional extended periods of winter weather going forward which is basically to say that the conditions we saw through much of last week are done for the season. The pattern doesn't look overwhelmingly warm and an isolated wintry interlude is still possible; after all, March is a month where the stars can align even when they shouldn't align, but expectations should be adjusted to account for more spring conditions going forward. 

After an inch of wet snow across the high country Monday night, some sunshine and seasonable temperatures return for Tuesday. The ever-present La Nina fueled southeast ridge that has largely been responsible for the seemingly endless stretch of 70-plus temperatures in the Carolina's and Georgia along with Sunday's tropical onslaught in Vermont, will produce another wave of low pressure expected to pass over the Delmarva on Wednesday. Models have been rapidly enhancing the vitality of this storm but it is nonetheless too far south for snowfall in Vermont and quiet weather remains the expectation for Wednesday including morning temperatures near 20 and afternoon readings close to 40. 

We continue to expect a big jet amplification late this week and into the weekend but getting the stars to align for an epic snowfall has been very difficult and appears unlikely as of early this week. We are still likely to see some snowfall late in the game but with the arctic cold positioned well to our west and the initial amplification also too far to our west, it is creating a less than optimal situation for snow across interior New England.  I had also hoped that we could establish a zone of overrunning snow Thursday and into Friday and although there remain some indications of that in the St Lawrence Valley, this does not appear likely to materialize in the Green and White Mountains. So what are we left with ? More quiet weather Thursday into Friday with some limited sunshine on Thursday and more clouds Friday. Expect both mornings to be sub-freezing and both afternoons to feature temperatures slightly above freezing on the mountain and 40's in valley locations. Precipitation will arrive Friday night, likely as rainfall but I was encouraged with some recent model data which suggested a well-established surface low would strengthen as it pushes from eastern Pennsylvania to the Maine coast. This scenario would allow rain to change to a period of significant snow on Saturday before an area of moderated arctic cold envelops the region for the duration of the weekend. 

The aforementioned cold weather was expected to persist in a general sense for several days and suppose to be the result of changes in the Pacific that was expected to favor colder than normal temperatures more broadly in eastern North America. This has turned out to be a failure and it would sound silly to sugarcoat it. It also proves how difficult it can be to accurately predict the MJO even when the models appear very decisive about the direction it might be headed. The jet stream in the Pacific is not expected to be strong but will never move into the favorable condition I had hoped it might. Additionally, the high latitude block over Alaska will clearly break down, shifting its focus to the northwest Pacific and partly covering portions of the Eurasian continent. This means that the cold weather Sunday into Monday will give way very quickly to more milder temperatures for the middle of next week (March 15th-17th) and there are, as mentioned, no indications of a sustained stretch of colder weather thereafter. We can still see temporary winter interludes in this type of setup but additional rounds of mild weather are also likely.

Last day to enjoy the powder is Saturday with roller coaster March weather taking full command Sunday

With about two feet of snow having fallen across the MRV high country over the past week, the powder hounds are having a well-deserved time of it and they should because we will be shifting quickly into March-mode over the next 48 hours. Additionally, I am not sure the weather pattern is capable of supporting another sustained stretch of mid-winter temperatures after Saturday. We could still get a big storm, but sustained 5-day periods of sub-freezing temperatures might be done for the winter and this is a bit of a change in thinking relative to a few days ago that I will expand on further in the last paragraph. 

Those powdery conditions can and should enjoyed on Saturday. Temperatures will start out in the single numbers and make a push toward 30-degrees in the afternoon. Sunshine might give way to some high cloudiness late in the day but the first part of our weekend will feature some excellent visibility and calm winds. Temperatures will hold steady close to the freezing mark Saturday night and there's a chance at a bit of snow or mixed precipitation but this precedes what still appears to be a torchy Sunday. Models have been indicating some rain during the day Sunday but the higher resolution data is beginning to reveal the wet weather to be a more minimal issue. We should see several hours of dry weather with temperatures rising well into the 40's on the mountain and into the 50's across valley locations. Rain if we do see any, should be limited to an hour or two. 

This latest round of warmth does appear rather limited in duration but the cold weather behind it does not look especially strong with much of the arctic cold having shifted to western Canada. This is consequential since a strong wave of low pressure is expected to reignite an area of precipitation that will eventually impact northern Vermont late in the day Monday. Though the torch will have been pushed south on Monday and temperatures will resettle back into the middle 30's, it may not be cold enough to support even a spring snow. It's close as of Friday afternoon but conditions appear marginal at best and may only allow for a minimal period of wet snow as the storm pulls away Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be very typical March weather days with Tuesday looking blustery, Wednesday more calm and temperatures generally below freezing on the mountain. 

This brings us to the period beginning Thursday March 10th and ending Saturday March 12th. It looks interesting since it will feature another big jet stream amplification but the longitudinal position of this amplification is absolutely critical and this has not been trending the way I had hoped. On Thursday we will be working rather tenuously with a soft area of cold weather and we could score some overrunning snowfall from an initial wave of low pressure. As the jet configuration continues to become amplified however it could allow any initial cold weather to give way to a big surge of milder weather and rain in the Friday to early Saturday period in a warm scenario. Push this amplification to the east and the potential is suddenly there for an epic storm. We've seen so much magic in the March 10th-15th time frame over the years that I would be unwise to not make mention of this or completely discount the possibility. 

The longer range beginning Sunday March 13th and extending into the next weekend ending March 20th will still feature a decent surge of colder weather and likely some accompanying snowfall to start.  The mostly sub-freezing, below normal temperatures would then linger through around St Patrick's Day. I had hoped this would be the beginning of a more sustained 10-day type stretch of winter weather, but ensembles are clearly moving away from this notion. Just as we get the Pacific to cooperate more fully, we will lose the support of the Alaskan ridge which was the blocking mechanism that not only kept it arctic this past week, but is keeping us in the game for a chunk of next week. This has forced me to rethink some initial conclusions about how this month would play out. A modestly cold March seemed like a good bet a week ago but given current indications, March 2022 appears to be headed toward a fairly normal outcome with a bit of cold, a bit of spring and a few fireworks. For the period mentioned above, it is also likely to mean that any cold weather that arrives by March 13th might only be reinforced once before giving way to milder more spring-like weather by the 19th and 20th. 

Mid-winter conditions through early Saturday and then topsy-turvy March weather takes over

 Hope everyone has been able to enjoy this latest wintry stretch which is set to continue through early Saturday. We've discussed the lack of Champlain enhanced terrain snow this winter which has really been the elephant in the room as it relates to the low total snow amounts in the northern Green Mountains this winter. The clipper system responsible for the next big surge of New England cold on Thursday will bring with it some snow Wednesday night and a few hour window for some additional Champlain enhanced snow. It all should add up to another 2-4 inch terrain sensitive snow by first tracks time Thursday as morning clouds give way to a cold sunshine accompanied by a stiff, arctic northwesterly wind. Temperatures should hover in the teens throughout the day Thursday and fell to as low as 10 below in a few spots Thursday night. We go full bluebird Friday with less winds and near 20-degree afternoon temperatures. 

The last of this powdery stretch of weather comes Saturday as clouds and a possible period of light snow accompany near 30-degree temperatures. We then have to encounter our next thaw as temperatures continue to creep upward Saturday night and spend most of Sunday well above the freezing mark. Overall this warm stretch is a bit less concerning for its intensity and duration. Showers are possible Sunday, March 6th along with temperatures that could soar into the 50's across valley locations and 40's on the hill. By Monday however there are more indications that cooler temperatures might put a quicker end to our first March spring interlude. In addition, the cold front responsible for the cooling has one more big wave of precipitation producing low pressure creating the possibility of a rain to snow situation for some mountainous location in New England. I would not get hopes up for this setup since the strength of the incoming cold does not appear especially strong and any snow would be associated with marginal near-freezing temps. 

As arctic air gets reconfigured into western areas of North America during the middle days of next week, it will allow Pacific air to assume control of much of the east coast, New England included. I like to make a point of mentioning when the weather might come in colder verses what the smart phone is telling me but in this case I think the middle of next week appears milder than the smart phone indications. Pacific air in March ? This means Tuesday-Thursday are all well-above freezing days, hopefully with decent amounts of sun while overnights are all in the 20's. Very typical March weather honestly but maybe more typical of late March as opposed to early March. 

Seems like I've been discussing a big return to winter weather in mid-March for 10 updates now and it's actually only a partial exaggeration. The longer range still shows the potential for some exciting stuff beginning the weekend of March 12-13th, perhaps even beginning Friday if we get really lucky. The jet stream in the Pacific is progressing toward a friendlier and gentler regime with the ridging in Alaska acting as a mechanism for southward moving arctic air. Ensembles also indicate the potential for a very amplified weather situation for the aforementioned weekend. I am concerned that said amplification occurs too far west for big east coast snow but it's certainly worth watching as is the several days that follow which appear more winter-like than March-like.

Wintry weather dominates rest of week but another big thaw possible Monday March 8

The last update of February 2022 features some good and bad news. The good news involves a very wintry rest of the week with 2 rounds of light snowfall accompanied by temperatures more typical of mid-winter than early March. Certainly adds to what has been a very productive week with 15 inches falling between Friday's storm and Sunday's snow squalls. There's bad news however involving the incredibly pesky southeast ridge - a La Nina favorite. It looks potent enough in the March 7th or 8th timeline to cause another round of melting before cooler weather returns for the middle of next week. 

Some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere will be positioned eastern Canada this week and Vermont is getting a taste of that Monday and another equally strong taste on Thursday and Friday. In between there are two weak weather systems that could bring some light snowfall to the mountains. The first, a clipper system, will bring clouds to northern Vermont Tuesday and some light snow beginning in the midday hours and persisting into the evening. Winds will become marginally favorable for some additional showers Tuesday night for a few hours leading us to a 3-5 inch, low density snowfall. Wednesday follows as a mostly dry day (with the exception of a few snow flurries) with intervals of both clouds and sun, but our second big shot of the aforementioned cold approaches late on Thursday in association with a hybrid clipper system. This means an additional round of light snowfall late Wednesday night into early Thursday (another 2-4 inch type event) with cold temperatures and strong northerly winds accompanying the clearing skies late Thursday. Temperatures could plummet to as low as -10 in a few spots early Friday before a heavy dose of early March sunshine boosts Friday afternoon readings into the 20's. 

I think we can ward off the strong push of mild air through the weekend. Saturday appears dry and mostly sub-freezing with early sunshine giving way to clouds and though Sunday's temperatures are likely to climb above freezing, they should only do so by a few degrees. On Monday however, there are indications of a very intense push of milder air. It remains to be seen if we get a full unmitigated torch with 60-plus temperatures and wind or some weaker version that might include more clouds and low visibility but with temperatures that are less than excessive. 

The weather pattern has some promise beyond the March 8th, but temperatures do not appear especially chilly between March 9th-13th. Arctic air will remain on the North American continent but reposition itself over western  and central Canada allowing for the continuation of spring like temperatures along the immediate east coast and more above freezing afternoons across interior New England. This is not unusual for the time of year, but it does underscore the importance of getting a more optimal pattern in the transition months if you still want snow. Blocking in Alaska will put pressure on this arctic air to push southeastward but it would certainly help if the Pacific cooperates. There are continued indications that it will by March 12th-14th but this process appears slow and this is probably what bothered me the most as I looked at all the data both Sunday and today (Monday). 

A straight-up, cold, 10-16 inch snow beginning at dawn Friday and ending in the evening

 It's nice to not have to begin a blog post by talking about mild weather or rain; instead, its a nice looking cold snow now right at our doorstep. It's also remained a very straight-forward and consistent forecast over the last several days. I was getting a little nervous early yesterday when models appeared to be taking a few steps to the south but that has since reversed with a high resolution data and global models converging on a scenario Friday that paints the southern two thirds of Vermont and all of the Berkshires in a sweet spot for snow. 

Details come easy with this event. Snow begins within an hour of 7 am Friday, persists through the ski day at varying intensities and tapers off close to 7 pm. A 12-hour cold snow with temperatures holding steady in the low teens throughout the day and winds blowing at a steady but not especially intense 10-20 mph clip from the northeast. With the tick back to the north that we saw with some of the global models overnight, I think we can raise the lower end of our accumulation range up to 10 inches with a top end remaining at 16". A beautiful and very welcome cold snow, and likely the third best event of the season but not epic. 

A healthy dose of late February sunshine will help lift some morning sub-zero readings back into the 20's on Saturday. We can then expect more clouds on Sunday and a period of light afternoon snow capable of producing a light 1-3 inch accumulation. Sunday will be considerably more windy than Saturday with westerly winds gusting beyond 30 mph, especially at the summits. The clipper system responsible for the light snow Sunday afternoon will also usher in a temporary round of bitterly cold temperatures to finish the month. Readings will fall back below zero Monday morning only this time we will have the added impact of strong winds and daytime temperatures on the mountain are likely to stay in the single numbers and struggle into the teens in valley locations. 

An expansive jet stream ridge over Alaska is likely to hold large sway on Vermont's weather during the first half of March, keeping arctic cold ever-present in eastern Canada and keeping the chances of winter weather and even a significant winter storm in play. The La Nina regime we experienced for much of February though is also not expected to completely die off but rather weaken. There are indications of a persistent cut-off in the southwestern U.S. and a weakened warm weather ridge in the southeastern United States. Though this set up favors below normal temperatures across northern New England we could still see a spring-like interlude or two and this is exactly how I expect the March 1st through 7th period to play out. Cold weather on February 28th will linger into Tuesday when some additional snow from an aged Pacific-Northwest system is possible. A storm in the later part of the week appears less likely over the past two days but colder weather will be reinforced once before we are potentially hit with one of those spring-like interludes around the time of the first full weekend of March. 

As I have mentioned previously, any warm weather is likely be short-lived. Both colder weather and the possibility for more snow is favored in the aforementioned setup and I fully expect talk of more snow in the days leading up to the Ides of March (historically always a favored time frame for a storm for completely unknown reasons).

Another day closer to a return to winter and a cold Friday snow !

We got through Tuesday's ski day without any rain, allowing skiers to enjoy the milder temperatures and soft snow. We even got a few hours of surprise sunshine in the morning. By the time some of you read this update, much of the rain will have come and gone, falling over the course of a few hours Tuesday evening and amounting to what appears to be less than a half an inch with temperatures hovering around 40 degrees. Wednesday continues to look mostly dry and most of the ski day appears quite mild with temperatures spiking close to 50 degrees in the valley and remaining in the 40's over the mountains until early afternoon. A strong arctic airmass will begin to envelop the region late Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will plummet, falling quickly below freezing by as early as 4pm on the mountain and soon after across lower elevations. 

Cold high pressure in Quebec will supply interior New England with a blustery and cold bluebird day Thursday and it also sets the stage for Friday's storm which will provide a cold snow to all over Vermont. This appears to be a very straight-forward storm and forecast. The low pressure system responsible has shifted slightly south with an initial area of low pressure tracking into northern Pennsylvania and a second low forming and then consolidating south of Long Island. This does place the MRV on the northern end of the heaviest snow and it also means that places like Stowe, Smuggs and Jay might see a lighter accumulation. For Mad River and Sugarbush however, I very much like what I see with snow beginning around daybreak and persisting into the evening. Total snowfall across our high country still appears to be in the 8-16 range with slightly lesser amounts across valley locations. The sweetspot for snow does appear to be in the southern half of Vermont for now but a little extra latitude shouldn't hurt us materially and allows a late northward shift to benefit the region. As for temperatures, I continue to expect low teens on the mountain and again the Iphone isn't telling me thus and I fully expect it will eventually. 

Some sunshine returns for Saturday accompanying temperatures near the 20-degree mark. Clouds will then advance into the region Saturday night and some light snow is possible for a few hours early on Sunday. A building ridge over Alaska will become a rather dominant player in the weather across North America in early March but in the short term, it will help to allow for a large buildup of cold over eastern Canada. Models remain somewhat unsure how far south this cold advances into the US Sunday and Monday but interior New England appears well-positioned to get a big chunk of it beginning Sunday evening following a light accumulation of snow. Sunday night into Monday should be brutally cold with temperatures falling below zero Monday morning and struggling to reach the teens during the day. 

Hopes for a coastal storm on Sunday night into Monday February 28th have dimmed and we can expect cold and very dry weather to prevail through Tuesday. We do have a better signal for a storm in the middle to later part of next week as the cold weather modifies and March begins. There is some potential for a bigger event here but we will need to retain some access to that aforementioned cold in eastern Canada. To be specific, the timing for this would be in the Wednesday, March 2nd to Friday March 4th window. 

In the longer range, ensembles have established some consensus for a warmer period and potentially some spring-like temperatures around the time frame of the first full weekend of March. I expect the weather to again turn colder by March 8th however and it may stay that way for a while thanks to the continued strength of the Alaskan ridge and the improving situation in the Pacific. The European Ensembles are throwing more weight to this notion by indicating an AO sign switch around this time frame but we have yet to see total support for this. Either way, winter appears far from done in Vermont .