Colder air and potential storms to kick off our 2024

Happy 2024 everyone. Hope your holiday was safe and joyous and I certainly hope the new year brings with it some snowfall. One thing I've learned staring at too many weather maps over the year is to never get too caught in the moment. Model data is fluid and can signal an overly abysmal outcome one day and an amazing one two days later. It can provide a signal, but one needs to boil that down from the persistent noise. On New Year's eve, the afternoon suite of models provided a sensational outlook for Vermont winter weather lovers during the first half of January, but only three days ago the same set of indicators has us shooting blanks, averting much of the snow and struggling to attain the persistent cold we've been waiting for, over the last month. Boiling this "noise"  down, we can certainly conclude that trends over the last 24-48 hours are very positive. We have some concerns, but the weather maps show an abundance of storminess to go along with a much healthier pool of cold to work with on our continent. It's a new year and certainly a new day when it comes to the prevailing weather pattern. 

As promised I think some sunshine returns for New Year's day. A chilly, but seasonable start to 2024 with a clipper system passing too far to our south to provide any chance for snowfall. That same clipper will intensify some out over the ocean and provide a beautiful starry Monday night across Vermont followed by a sun-drenched Tuesday to go along with more sub-freezing temperatures. Clouds will return for Wednesday and it was certainly all of our collective hopes that these clouds would come in advance of the first chance for significant snow coming out of our recent holiday misery. This was the "split flow" storm I had such high hopes for, but the southward advancing polar jet appears to be moving any potential amplification out over the ocean. Still, we have a first and rather healthy batch of cold advancing upon us and some lingering moisture with the associated clipper. Snowfall, albeit light, remains a likely outcome late Wednesday, Wednesday night into Thursday and it should be enough to yield an accumulation of a few inches. The incoming cold certainly rivals the coldest of the season and ensures a very sub-freezing first full weekend of Jan though that won't be the biggest story of that period. 

The 2nd in the series of southern streamers will dominate weather talk in the coming few days. It has an impact date of Jan 7 and 8 (first weekend of Jan), appears more potent, has a supply of antecedent cold air and does not have the trailing polar disturbance to kick if offshore. What makes this storm more certain than others ? It doesn't require a phase or any specific interaction with the polar jet. It will all just down to the track and just how far north this particular system decides to deposit its moisture. There have been some historic nor'easters during super nino winters that have managed to avoid Vermont entirely (looking at you '83 and '16) and that's always a possibility, though the overall jet stream configuration suggests both interior and coastal New Enland are in play. Get ready, this one will be heavily discussed in the coming days. 

Ensembles have been signalling (with lots of noise)  two major themes during the 2nd week of January. Another possible storm around the time of January 9th/10th and a more widespread and sustained outbreak of cold of an uncertain intensity behind this storm. The storm on the 9th/10th is a product of the somewhat problematic Pacific and threatens to amplify the jet too early and too far west. These are the moments when we need some downstream blocking over the Davis Strait or over Greenland to prevent such a storm from charging at the Great Lakes and indeed we have it ! So although such a storm may make a bid to cut well west of New England, it will make every effort to make an energy transfer to the coast. 

And yes we have a more sustained round of cold weather to follow. Even the Pacific was shown to weaken considerably after the 10th allowing the negative AO/NAO combination to do its work in peace. Just the way I like it !

Some wet snow for Saturday and then a couple possible storms for Jan 4 and Jan 9 as we begin to travel down the 2024 road

Temperatures on Friday are moving in the right direction, but it remains damp and cloudy with terrible visibility and very little snow on the ground. Add this holiday to the large list of rain-drenched Christmas holiday thaws we have seen this century. Very strange how that works. 

A swath of moisture over Quebec will rotate southward in association with the last of this recent train of low pressure areas. This particular storm, had it manage to strengthen faster, could have reinvigorated the wintry spirit for New Year's weekend. It won't do that, but temperatures will slowly cool, enough to allow rain to change to snow over the high elevations Friday evening, base areas later in the evening and even valley locations by Saturday morning. The mountains should see a several hour period of snow from this extending through midday Saturday and this means an elevation sensitive 2-6 inches before we close out the ski day on 12/30. The snow consistency should remain relatively wet in most places, but certainly an improvement over the rain. Another improvement in the short term outlook relates to the cloud clover. A clipper system diving through the Great Lakes Sunday appears a little better defined and will move south of Vermont. This should suck some of the cloudiness with it and allow for a few breaks in the overcast to appear on New Year's Eve. As the storm intensifies offshore on New Year's Day,  it will help produce what I think will be a predominantly sunny day to start 2024. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 30's under the clouds, near 30 Sunday under less clouds and upper 20's with excellent visibility Monday with the sunshine. 

We remain stuck in the Pacific air to start 2024 so temperatures will remain mild in a relative sense, though mostly below freezing on the mountain. More clouds are expected to return for Tuesday and Wednesday and some light snow could accompany that on Tuesday. The more important item on the weather map is a potential storm for Thursday. This would result from the split flow setup I've been excited about for well over a week now. We've got a southern streamer near the Gulf Coast and a clipper near Lake Superior late Wednesday evening (Jan 3) that will try and merge and do so something special for us for Jan 4. Models have struggled to get on board with this idea but have finally begun to show a possibility for such an occurrence. It remains "a chance" for now, but certainly not yet likely. At the very least, the clipper system and cold air behind it ensures sub-freezing temperatures through the first full weekend of January. 

Thanks to the support of the AO particularly a blocking ridge indicated to set up just north of Alaska in the Arctic Circle, we finally have a mechanism in place capable of bringing polar air into Canada. The Hudson Bay is set up to have its latest freeze (on record I believe) thanks to all the mild air, but arctic sea ice has actually been closing in on a 20-year high thanks to a healthy buildup in areas not near the Hudson Bay. In spite of the Canadian chill down, we still have some conflicting indicators in the teleconnection indices with a slightly charged Pacific and a negative PNA. Lots of storminess is expected to descend on the west coast late next week and then Rocky Mountains for the weekend of the 6th and 7th. The American GFS has repeatedly shown this evolving into an inland runner for us to contend with around the time of January 9th, though other ensemble guidance has shown some potential here. Our best defense against an inland runner is the -NAO and we have that working for us by January 8th, so we could certainly turn any potential storm into something positive at our latitude. It will certainly help to have a bit more cold nearby though it would certainly also be nice if the Great Lakes aggregate was colder and would be less of a northward drag on storms. 

Beyond January 9th has a colder look, at least for a few days with some of the Arctic air over Canada indicated to move south into the United States.

Big New Year's holiday surprise looks less likely, but first half of January continues to look promising l

 Keeping score at home, I have Wednesday, December 27th as the 5th consecutive day of overcast conditions. It's an ugly stretch for many reasons and the clouds are largely going to be with us through the New Year's holiday with just a chance for a few breaks in the overcast on Sunday (New Year's eve) and Monday (New Year's day). Lets just hope we are prepaying our cloudy tax now, in advance of the solar eclipse in April. More importantly, we've also been paying the warm/rain tax on another holiday. The intermittent rain along with the poor visibility will continue through Friday. I hoped we could bring snow summit areas as soon as the 29th, but the persistent warmth in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere promises to be with us until Friday evening, when at that point it is expected to get erased allowing for the potential of some light snow at the highest elevations first, and then at base areas later in the evening. 

So can we manufacture a New Year's holiday surprise ? Doesn't appear as it if will happen unfortunately. We will be cold enough for snow on Saturday and we should receive at least some light snow throughout the day with a couple inches accumulation possible. Unless we can get some more robust development of this dragging low pressure area, it will be tougher to generate a) the heavier snowfall and b) the sub 30-degree temperatures we would need for the powdery snow at the higher elevations. The door remains open for a holiday miracle and storms that require phase such as this one can always surprise. 

I hope we can begin an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures to the northern Vermont mountains beginning on Sunday. A clipper type system dives southeast that day and is expected to mostly disperse but it will bring clouds, some snow showers to go along with that chance of a few breaks in the overcast. New Year's day has a better chance for a few sunny breaks and should at least feature improved visibility with temperatures remaining in the 20's on the mountain. 

The split flow being indicated for the end of next week would win a beauty contest in my geeky world. It looks magnificent, but we still need to execute as to creating a storm out of all this. We also have to bring more cold air into the picture and although we begin flooding the North American continent with polar air, this is a process that needs time to play out. Most of the air over Vermont next week is more Pacific in origin and will allow 2024 to start on the above side of normal though it should remain mostly below freezing on the mountain (not so in valley areas). Still watching for something in that January 4th-6th time frame since that is when that aforementioned split flow could result in a big east coast jet amplification and storm. Coastal areas will need more cold for a big accumulation, but Vermont appears cold enough for a sizeable snow but we need a storm to make all that happen. 

The longer range has strong support from the NAO which is appears poised to make a decisive push into negative territory and more tepid support from the AO which should continue to allow arctic cold to push southward over North America. The NAO becomes a bigger ally when it comes to storminess by doing two key things. 1) Becoming an active participant in the Inland Runner Prevention Program (IRPP and also my poor attempt at humor) and 2) Allowing east coast storminess to linger in the maritimes allowing for extended periods of snow for the interior New England mountains. I have always been an skeptic that a -NAO correlates well to east coast cold (AO, PNA and EPO are better IMO), but Vermont doesn't need that as much in January. Speaking of the EPO and the Pacific more generally is where I am less enthused. We can tolerate what is being currently indicated in the aggregation of ensemble guidance but the feistier Pacific that is indicated after January 6th does favor the best action over the Rocky Mountains. Taken together though, the first half of January looks pretty good for most of ski country throughout North America and I remain optimistic.

Short term rainy outlook could be overshadowed New Year's weekend surprise !

 I hope everyone enjoyed this year's Christmas holiday even without the deep snow we once had. The holiday season has had a recent history littered with thaws and rain events and we can add 2023 to the list. A very disorganized and slow moving storm system is telegraphed to approach interior New England Tuesday night and promises to continue the stretch of cloudiness we have seen through the end of the week and even into New Year's weekend. More on that in a minute. There remains very little cold air to work with as has been advertised for several updates. Even a more favorable trajectory of this storm will fail to alter another wet outcome at least initially. Rain will arrive Wednesday morning and continue sporadically through Wednesday night into Thursday. No flooding risk with this event as the rain appears lighter, more intermittent colder and will be falling over minimal snow cover. The storm responsible for the initial dose of wet weather is anchored by a slow moving upper level closed low and as it moves a little closer to the area Thursday we might begin to see some mixed precipitation and snow above 3,000 feet but accumulations by Thursday night will be light and mostly insignificant. In short, the first 72 hours is the worst part of the current outlook; after that, things get better. 

Right off the bat, we have some big question marks that still remain unanswered and will determine the fate of New Year's weekend. The same closed upper low pressure center will slowly continue to spin eastward on Friday and as it does so, it gets a big shortwave injection of jet energy diving south out of the Hudson Bay. This is all part of a realigning weather pattern that can't happen soon enough, but this late Friday infusion of energy is critical and if we can achieve the right kind of phase, it will result in an amazing result for the weekend. We've had one model hammering away at this solution Christmas day, the Canadian model while another, the European model has been showing hints. What's this result you ask ? How about any rain or drizzle Friday turning to heavy snow and continuing through a good part of Saturday yeilding a foot-plus of powder for the northern Vermont high country ? Yes, this result is in play ! I can't make any promises yet, as this outcome is entirely contingent on the timing of that "kicker" system diving south out of the Hudson Bay which brings both the energy and the late supply of colder weather that's been missing all week. After glancing at the Christmas evening run of the Euro ensemble, I am willing to place chances for heavy snow at about 30 percent while the remaining 70 percent consists of either a lighter snow or a miss. We aren't categorically "cold" yet this weekend but we should stay sub-freezing on the mountain whether or not we receive the goods with temperatures staying mostly in the 20's or low 30's with clouds limiting daily temperature ranges. 

More generally, the playing field after the next few days has plenty of prospects. Case in point, the American GFS model has us missing the event on Saturday but potentially scoring a few days after that. Meanwhile, colder arctic air will get a chance to envelop northern parts of the North American continent and finally get a chance to have a greater say on weather in Vermont by the first full weekend of January. We have just a picture perfect split flow look just ahead of this aforementioned weekend and this gives us an excellent chance to spin up a substantial snow event of some kind between January 4th (a Thursday) and January 6th (a Saturday). After that, it becomes a mixed bag of indicators with help coming from the NAO which appears lined up to be solidly negative for the first 10 days of January and some lesser help from the AO which is expected to gently support more arctic air over much of Canada. I am a little bothered by action in the Pacific as we move toward January 8th (2nd Monday of the month), but conflicting teleconnections have proven to be an effective combination during the middle of winter.

Storm after Christmas is most likely to start wet but could still finish snowy while pattern to start 2024 looks promising

Happy winter solstice folks ! Nice to be able celebrate the occasion with some bright sunshine, something we should be able to do again on Friday, a chilly day embedded within our current mild weather pattern. Most of the North American continent with the exception of Alaska has gotten in on the mild air and much of central Canada can expect an unusually mild Christmas next few days as above freezing temperatures surge northward deep into the provinces of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontarios. Vermont will get milder as well beginning with some 30 degree readings on Saturday afternoon and upwards of close to 40 on Sunday, Christmas Eve. Cloudiness associated with this warmer push of temperatures is expected to advance into the region for the weekend and some light snow or mixed precipitation is expected to make it as far as western and central NY late Saturday but is not indicated to advance eastward from there. Thus, the dry forecast through Christmas day (and even beyond) continues to hold and so does the mild weather with temperatures expected to reach the mid 40's both on the 25th and Tuesday the 26th. 

The latest on the potential storm for next week is this. We remain in search of our lost cold because there's very little to be found in Canada. The track of next week's storm looks promising, but the cold is in such short supply across Quebec as low pressure approaches from the south and west, that a first chapter in the story of this storm appears to be rain. The wet weather would arrive would arrive late on Tuesday or on Wednesday December 27th and persist for several hours. As this is happening the jet stream will be undergoing a bit of a realignment and this will allow allow chillier air to move southward, giving the storm in question a potential infusion of much needed cold before it slowly departs. Lots of questions remain unanswered, but our hope is that a 2nd chapter in this story could be a snowier one late in the holiday week. The storm appears to be moving slow enough for this to be a reasonable possibility, especially over the high country though we need a few things to fall into place. The IPhone is telling me rain for the Thursday/Friday time frame (28th and 29th) and I don't think this paints a complete picture of the various possibilities. 

I really like the outlook for the New Years holiday into the early part of 2024 though I am surprised at the amount of social media weather personalities are talking up the cold. The pattern does support "colder" outcome than the mild December we are experiencing but there is no indication that the polar vortex is gearing up for a major assault on the midwest or northeastern United States through the first week of January. This is actually a good thing for Vermont snow lovers because the combination of just normalized temperatures and the split flow regime setting up across western North America is fantastic for big storm potential. It is more likely we are confined to lighter snowfall amounts for the New Year's holiday weekend along with the seasonable day time temperatures, but I would certainly expect talk of something bigger to enhance as we advance a few days into 2024.

5 days of mostly dry weather through Christmas, a possible storm next week and an encouraging outlook start 2024

To those impacted by Monday's flooding, my sincerest sympathies. I've been on the receiving end of a few floods and the cleanup is not a fun existence, especially when one has to deal with it multiple times in a year.  Rainfall amounts were impressive in many areas totalling 2-3 inches, but it was the intensity of the melt-off, much of it fueled by the combination of high winds and high dewpoints that was the catalyst for this event. Without the deep early season snow across the northern VT high country, I think the flooding would be fairly minimal. 

River levels are dropping quite rapidly as of Tuesday and an extended period of dry weather will help them drop further. Starting Wednesday, we are looking at 5 days with minimal precipitation chances. This takes us through Christmas with many of those day, including the winter solstice, featuring sunshine. We actually have some arctic air working its way into eastern Canada late this week and some of this will work its way into Vermont Thursday and Friday. This will be a big assist to snowamaking operations which can expect an extended duration of sub-freezing temperatures beginning Wednesday night and persisting through early Saturday. Temperatures are expected to moderate during the day Saturday, and the sunshine which will be a big part of the Thursday/Friday weather picture is likely to fade behind some high cloudiness. Saturday, would be the one day we could see some warm advection induced light snow, but chances of this are low and chances of an accumulation are lower. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will feature milder days with sub-freezing nights which is weather more typical of March. Both appear comfortable for getting outside though it would certainly be a lot better with more snow on the ground. 

Our next shot at that aforementioned snow comes in the days after Christmas. Models are converging on the significant east coast storm idea and its again being fueled by El Nino and it will again arrive with only minimal amounts of available cold air. Fortunately "minimal" is not zero, at the risk of sounding like Jim Carrey, and significant snowfall is certainly a possible outcome. By Tuesday, December 26h, mild air will be encompassing a large portion of the eastern seaboard and will include most, if not all of interior New England. As the conglomeration of storminess makes its approach either Tuesday, Tuesday night or Wednesday, colder air or at least that minimal amount of it, will have the capability of becoming a significant part of this winter storm and providing us with "a chance". Elevation is likely to play a role in snowfall amounts and consistency and a more rainy outcome is also still on the table. 

Our chances for snow with the system next week appear better as teleconnection indices gradually become more favorable. The biggest ally next week will be the PNA as the expanded ridge in the jet stream responsible for the large swath of North American warmth is pushed west. Looking toward New Year's weekend and beyond we get some additional support from the EPO and AO, both of which become favorable. It's the specific structure of the indicated jet stream which is most encouraging and includes a ridge isolated to western North America with  the pineapple express tunneling underneath and colder arctic air pushing south towards the eastern part of North America. It will take some for the cold to get anchored on our continent, its been sitting in Mongolia and eastern Russia for much of this month and this is why the snow/rain situation remains tenuous next week. Beyond that storm though, we should have better cold air support yielding an outlook for the early part of 2024 that is pretty encouraging.

Better outlook remains as we head closer to 2024, but so does the windswept heavy rain at all elevatios for Monday

Though the holiday season is certainly in full swing, the sea of green on the NWS BTV forecast map is not bringing out my festive spirit. Those "greens" indicate that a flood watch has been issued for most of the state with heavy rain expected for much of Monday. We won't pull any magic tricks with this storm with El Nino bringing us its very worst personality traits. Encouraging signs are still on the horizon as we approach the start of 2024, but the shorter range outlook is not looking especially wintry. 

Here are the gory details regarding the rain. It arrives Sunday evening as a light rain along with calmer winds. By Monday morning, the heavier rain and stronger winds will have arrived and when combined with the mild, near 50 degree temperatures and high dewpoints, the snow will melt very quickly. The high resolution model data is converging on the 2-plus inch of rain scenario; which, when combined with the snow melt will produce the flooding potential that the National Weather Service is highlighting. Rain will end abruptly Monday evening and colder temperatures will arrive by Tuesday morning though with substantially less snow on the ground. Elevation won't save us from this rain, even at the top of Mt Washington.

The rest of the upcoming week will manage to feature mostly sub-freezing temperatures across the northern Vermont high country though valley locations will continue to climb above freezing on the afternoons of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I can't promise much snow, but there is a strong jet impulse associated with the arrival of Tuesday's cold. Had this feature arrived a little sooner it might have inspired a snowy finish to the Monday storm, but it still appears capable of bringing snow showers and snow squalls to the MRV during the day on Tuesday. I get the sense that someone in Vermont will get lucky with this snow and see 6 inches but most areas will see 3 or less with a dry outlook Wednesday to Friday. 

With growing confidence, the dry weather forecast mentioned above can be extended into the Christmas holiday weekend, a period that looks very tranquil with above normal temperatures, but no torching. Across North America, the days leading up to Christmas will feature a massive jet stream ridge over the central part of the continent, a classic feature of El Nino that will will cause record breaking temperatures across the upper Midwest and central Canadian provinces. Northern New England will escape the record temperatures and also be on the receiving end of some much needed sunshine during the darkest period of the year. By Christmas Day, our next storm will be organizing and gathering strength and certainly could spread clouds back into the region though precipitation might be able to hold off until Monday night or Tuesday, though there remains some uncertainty as to the timing. 

The potential storm on the 26th certainly looks colder than December 18tth, but the glaring lack of arctic cold remains. The pattern will gradually be undergoing a more favorable transformation with the large North American jet stream ridge retrograding toward the western part of the continent. At the same time, Pacific storminess is showing the potential to undercut this ridge producing the split flow setup that I just love. That said, we still need just a little arctic cold and it's going to take a little time to build up a decent pool of said cold to our north. This makes a potential storm on the 26th appear marginal in terms of rain or snow, but the odds appear better with a possible next storm around the New Years holiday weekend time frame. Close your eyes and take a deep breath and have faith that we will get through this.