Wet snow New Year's Day becomes drier Thursday/Friday with a beautiful weather pattern ready and waiting for 2025

Soggy and rainy conditions finally enveloped Vermont on Monday, but it's a little easier to swallow when you look out to the horizon to see what's coming. December is a notoriously erratic month and though this one was colder than recent versions, it still brought us its on version of ups and downs. A more westerly flow of mild and drier Pacific air will give us clouds and some limited sun on New Year's Eve and with the exception of the higher summits, temperatures should remain primarily above freezing. As opposed to the inversions we've seen in recent days where temperatures have actually been higher in elevated areas as opposed to valley areas, Tuesday will be very much the reverse with a well mixed atmosphere bringing readings well into the 40's in valley areas while temps are close to freezing above 3,000 feet. 

 Raise a glass to 2025 and make sure you raise a glass to the incoming weather that is poised to accompany it. Like a picturesque version of fundamental support for persistent cold out through the middle of January and I'll talk about that a few paragraphs down. New Year's itself has an interesting storm and one we could certainly use. Very marginal temperatures will persist over low lying areas, but readings will be colder over higher elevations and will thus support a very terrain sensitive event on New Year's Day and in the days that follow where lingering moisture will support occasional snowfall through January 3rd. Mixed precipitation, rain in the lowest elevations and wet snow across the mountains begins early Wednesday morning. By dawn, I think the ski areas will see primarily a wet snowfall with a continuation of mixed precipitation in valley areas. If precipitation becomes heavy, and there are indications it might as the storm in question continues to strengthen, it will help cool temperatures, change all precipitation to snow and allow the material accumulations to begin across country. This is a healthy looking storm that will deepen nicely as it approaches the southeast Maine coastline. More importantly, it will fully mature and slow underneath the jet stream blocking in Canada. Wet snow will total 4-8 inches on Wednesday and this snow will become drier Wednesday night and continue into Thursday when an additional 4-8 inches should be expected with lesser amounts in valley areas. And it will go on still with an additional 3-6 inches falling between Thursday night into the ski day Friday. I will mention that the flow setup between Wednesday night in Friday is more westerly than northwesterly favoring the corridor from Smuggs north to Jay where I would expect a 3 day total of over 2 feet. The 11-22 inches I expect for us over these 3 days is very much needed and certainly will have us headed in the right direction into a very chilly weather pattern. 

In the shorter term, bitterly cold temperatures will very slowly establish itself over Vermont. Readings will remain in the 20's over MRG Thursday, high teens Friday and mid teens for the weekend. Sunshine should make some limited appearances this weekend but some snowfall is indicated with a favorable flow of air over Lake Champlain. Completely reasonable to expect some additional cold powdery inches for the weekend. 

The next organized weather system is expected to make an impact early next week and the weather universe is buzzing because of the potential snowfall in the big east coast cities.  The hypothetical storm appears different on almost every model run and there are a lot of variables including a push of milder air well to our south and a polar jet.  Regardless of this uncertainly, I am reasonably comfortable calling this a snow or no situation for us in northern Vermont with the impact being somewhere in the January 6th to Jan 8 time frame and probably 2 of those 3 days. The coldest weather of the week appears to be at the end and the most anomalous and frigid temperatures could well stay to our west through January 10th. In spite of that, i would not expect readings to spend too much time above the 20 degree mark. 

I would buy the postcard if someone put this weather pattern on one. Just an exceptional jet stream structure on January 10th with the jet attaining this omega structure over Alaska and extending well north into the arctic circle. More ridging over the Davis strait and a nice quiet Pacific. Outbreaks of sub-zero temperatures and continuous opportunities for snowfall should be expected through January 15th and quite possibly beyond. You can get a rogue bad amplifier with a storm ingesting some steriod over the plains and maturing early and taking an inland track. I put this stuff out there early because every time I don't in a pattern like this it will find a way to happen just to make me look bad.  Enjoy the New Year and don't let the mud get you down.

 

Bad storm track removes the New England "cold hole" and brings rain before terrific looking start to 2025

 I've seen a few good "cold holes" over the last 15 or so years across North America. Most recently they've been occurring out west over deep snow cover in the darkest months of the year such as December or January and out of the way of the jet stream. They happen in New England as well under many of these same circumstances with the critical contributing factors being very little wind, deep snow and low sun angle. Though the shallow layer of cold is decaying and might look especially impressive on a weather map, there simply aren't enough daylight hours to burn through the inversion. It's not cold enough to snow because of the air just above Mt Washington, but it's cold enough at the surface for sub-zero temps and in the case of the most recent week, a rather excellent week for skiers following the snow on Christmas Eve. 

The inversion fell apart early Saturday over the Champlain Valley and is slowly doing so over the rest of Vermont and unfortunately temperatures are supporting rainfall for Sunday into early Monday and quite decisively. Models indicate a period of light rain perhaps as early as very late in the ski day Sunday and then the question becomes how heavy the rain might get Sunday night into early Monday. Most of the data I've seen suggests less than a half an inch with the heaviest rain staying to our south and east. A higher resolution run of a shorter term model did show over an inch Sunday night though it remains the outlier not the consensus. Temperatures are again, not expected to get excessive while the rain is falling, hovering around the 40 degree mark through early Monday. Westerly winds late Monday and into Tuesday (New Year's Eve) will likely bring the mildest period we will see in the period between late last week and mid January. 

Now on to the better stuff. Cold air will remain in short supply as the next and very legitimate storm system approaches in the last hours of 2024 yet I think we can squeeze a decent elevation sensitive event out of the whole deal. We need the storm to track favorably and the storm to strengthen in such a way that it can manufacture an environment conducive for snowfall. We've seen a bunch of these events in recent years and they are quite common later in the winter season. Surface temperatures in valley areas are indicated to be a bit too warm initially to support snowfall and I am not so sure they support snow over the mountains until precipitation becomes heavier early New Year's Day. As the day progresses however, atmospheric cross sections look better and more supportive of snow. I want to be careful not to get too giddy about it since models aren't projecting hefty amounts of snowfall, I have to show some respect for the data. That said, this is certainly a setup that could produce 1-2 feet above 2,000 feet while valley areas are relegated to a few gloppy inches. By later New Year's Day into the evening and then into Jan 2, temps might get cold enough for snow conditions to dry out some on the highest areas of the mountain. 

The New Year's elevation event marks the end of mild threat with the ridge in eastern Canada forecast to weaken and the fundamentals increasingly supporting colder weather. We won't see excessive temperatures through the first full weekend of the month/year and this should aside from keeping the comfort level in check on what should be some windy days, also keep the snow threat alive from weaker disturbances and Lake Champlain enhancement. Models/ensembles have been signaling a potential significant event between Jan 6-8. 

The first half and I hope more of January just looks terrific. Anchored by my favorite tag team of negative EPO and AO indices where the jet in the Pacific appears tranquil and then more blocked in the arctic regions. The risk in January is that storm track shifts too far south but with the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain remaining mostly ice-free, I wouldn't have my money on a dry cold.

Rain and a mild stretch of weather appear unavoidable late on Dec 29th and into Dec 30 and some New Year's Day heavy snow potential

Hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas holiday. Boxing day started below zero in many places in spite of the fact that the mid level environment barely supports snow with the large upper level ridge now fully established in eastern Canada. It makes for a very inverted temperature profile, a very stable environment, and without the problem of having low clouds to contend with, the bluebird plate special is served through Friday with temperatures staying below the freezing mark for the most part. 

Unfortunately, we won't make it through the entirety of this eastern North American warm stretch without some thawing and some rain. Much of the mild weather has been focused on areas both west and north of Vermont strangely and a dose of this mild weather appears headed for  us during the last 60 or so hours of 2024. There's a bit more to this story and I will try and tell it the best I can. 

Clouds are expected to make a return for the Saturday portion of the weekend. As expected, precipitation isn't expected for the 28th, wind is expected to remain light and temperatures are not expected to exceed the mid-thirties. So long as above-freezing temperatures aren't accompanied by higher dewpoints, the impact is relatively limited. Low pressure is expected to spin its way through the eastern Great Lakes and eventually deep into Quebec on Monday. This track is obviously less than ideal and although low level cold air is expected to resist the scouring for a time, it is mostly expected to give way as precipitation arrives Sunday afternoon, mostly in the form of rain. It appears temperatures will hover around 40 while the rain is falling Sunday evening and night and its certainly my hope that most of  it is over and done with Monday morning. At this point westerly winds are expected to push mild Pacific air into the region making for a mild 2nd to last day of 2024 though it remains somewhat uncertain whether we can entirely clear all the precipitation away from Vermont. 

And then hopefully the fun begins. A second and stronger weather system is expected to make a Rocky Mountain exit late on December 30th and advance east-northeast toward New England. Cold air is in very short supply in eastern North America, but this stronger area of low pressure is expected to track more favorably and make an eventual transfer to the Atlantic Coast before potentially bombing in the Gulf of Maine. Temperatures will remain unquestionably mild on New Year's Eve, hanging out near 40 through much of the afternoon before precipitation chances increase during the evening. Temperature profile appear like they might support a wet snowfall across the high country during the last few hours of 2024 while mixed precipitation or rainfall occurs at lower elevation. As time progresses and when, if the storm bombs, snowfall is favored at all elevations and could be very significant above 1500 feet making for a big start to 2025. There continues to be some variation in the model simulations but a few of the ensemble aggregates are bullish on the bombing which is a pretty crucial question given the lack of cold air support. 

Good fundamental support remains for an excellent stretch of weather for the first 2 weeks of 2025. Arctic air will need some time to reestablish itself over the continent and return New England to below normal temperatures, but January is a month where it doesn't take much to at least make it sub-freezing and we should see a good stretch of that in the aftermath of whatever happens on New Year's Day. Split flow in the Pacific is very encouraging for those hoping for more opportunities at storms and my guess is that we see another opportunity at a good storm before an arctic envelopment sometime in the first full week of January (Jan 6-10).

All kinds of good news for skiers that includes both snow in the short term and intrigue around the New Year and beyond

It's been a warm year in Vermont. Not only has every month been above normal up until now, the winter of 2023-24 saw about one subzero morning. Temperatures early Monday, which are as low as -10 in some areas, are easily the coldest of the calendar year and the month has an outside chance of seeing the coldest average temperatures of the year, exceeding that of January which is a statistical rarity. I love a cold bluebird day with a low wind so I am a little bummed to seek clouds making a rapid eastward advance and spoil a portion of this. Still, we expect temperatures to moderate and reach the teens in spite of less sunshine and those clouds are poised to bring snow Monday evening into early Tuesday. We tend to do well on these type of events, even with a lack of moisture, and my expectation is for a fluffy, low density 4-7 inches of by mid morning Tuesday. 

The rest of the holiday week is expected to be dry and just like we had hoped, the lack of strong ambient flow combined with the low December sun angle will slow the temperature moderation even as arctic air makes its North American retreat. We can also expect decent amounts of sunshine along the relatively calm winds and temperatures should generally stay below freezing except for maybe an hour this coming Friday. Not bad considering much of central Canada, including areas deep in the remote north will see a round of thawing temperatures. 

This home plate umpire is giving the safe sign for the last full weekend of 2024 with some of the same themes from the holiday week, carrying over to the weekend. Temperatures will continue to moderate, very slowly with readings touching or exceeding the freezing mark only during the afternoons. An increase in cloudiness should keep Saturday night considerably milder than the 7 days prior to it. It's a close call as to whether or not precipitation makes it to Vermont by Sunday, but it seems unlikely to reach northern Vermont by the end of the ski day. Maybe instant replay can overturn my call in a few days but I like my odds and I certainly think temperatures will stay sub-40 through the 29th on the mountain, something I would not have set 3-5 days ago. 

As more model data continues to stream in, the notion we are destined to receive rain during this New Year's mild period no longer seems to be a certainty and a mild rain all rain event isn't even the most likely scenario anymore. Though the jet stream blocking and extreme relative warmth will continue in eastern Canada, storminess appears like it wants to undercut much of this blocking creating all kinds of intrigue around the New Year's holiday. Sure, some wet weather is possible, but if a large storm undergoes some sort of occlusion within our vicinity, which several models have indicated, significant snow totals are entirely possible and could quite possibly mark an epic start to 2025. This situation certainly has my attention and although temperatures still look mild relative to average, not all mild weather is created equal. 

Beyond holiday, the pattern appears to have much better cold weather support with split flow developing in the eastern Pacific, large amounts of ridging in western North America and arctic cold working its way back southward in North America. Though above average temperatures are likely to continue through January 5th, it's less likely that readings are above freezing on the mountain. After January 5th, temperatures could more closely resemble a typical January and may even drop below normal for the first full week of the month. 

3-6 inches of windblown snow accompany a cold Winter Solstice weekend followed by only slowly moderating temperatures Christmas week

One healthy band of snow managed to rotate through the Mad River Valley on Friday and intermittent light snow will accompany the gradual descent of temperature readings along with the strong winds through Saturday. Total snow accumulations will be enhanced by the unfrozen state of Lake Champlain and although the big storm and heavy snow won't materialize, a cold 3-6 wind blown inches will provide some powdery turns. The intermittent snow will taper off and give way to some clearing Saturday night and sunshine should then make a partial appearance on Sunday. The big story is the cold obvoiusly. Temperatures will be near 10 while the snow is falling on Saturday and will be accompanied by 30 mph wind gusts, which could be higher at the summits. Actual temperatures Sunday are expected to stagnate in the single numbers with a continuation of near 30 mph wind gusts in spite of sunshine. Please dress accordingly. 

Winds will taper off late Sunday and clear skies along with the snow cover will provide the support for subzero temperatures Monday morning. We still expect a bluebird day Monday or at least most of Monday with calm winds and readings climbing into the teens. 

We are still expecting a surge in the EPO index around the Christmas holiday forcing arctic air to make a northward retreat. As mentioned in the last update, New England and Vermont in particular seem well positioned for a very slow moderation in temperatures throughout the holiday week. Additionally, a disturbance riding along the slowly eastward moving warmer temperatures will be the catalyst for a period of light snow Monday night into Christmas Eve. We appear to be in line for a few inches though we should expect some final alterations in these expectations over the coming days. Sunshine could make a nice appearance on Christmas Day and on the 26th. After that, an extended period of cloudiness which often accompanies a gradual push toward milder temperatures. Overall, none of these milder temperatures appear to be too much of a problem through the 27th with overnight readings remaining below freezing and daytime temperatures climbing beyond the freezing mark for a few hours late in the week. Moreover, Christmas week will feature no rain or mixed precipitation.

A massive blob of anomalous warmth across eastern Canada stands out like a sore thumb on the ensemble maps for the last full weekend of the 2024. In spite of this, there appears to be a way through this calamity and into 2025 which is starting to look very interesting, mostly because of potential storminess and more supportive temperatures. The days leading up to New Year's Day are the most challenging however since no fresh supply of cold exists within thousands of miles of us. A way through is contingent on the low sun angle of late December, minimal ambient flow that is not south or southwesterly and somehow avoiding potential rainfall. The operational simulations are going to be noisy out this far but it's encouraging that a few of them have indicated this possibility. Other simulations have shown some potential rainfall. The turn to colder weather and a higher probability of snow would then arrive on or before the first full weekend of 2025.

4-7 Wednesday night, some cold, light windblown snow Saturday and a slower temperature moderation Christmas week

Our round of new snow Wednesday night is on track and will mark the beginning of a nice stretch of pre-holiday wintry weather in northern Vermont. I had hoped that the responsible wave of low pressure would achieve a bit more legitimacy as it tracks over Cape Cod very early Thursday, but 1014 mb might be about all we can muster. The flat wave is still good enough to produce a period of wet snow beginning around 5-6 pm Wednesday evening and persisting for several hours. As expected, snow showers are expected in the aftermath although most of those will occur in the early morning and we should experience some clearing during the ski day Thursday. Accumulations get downgraded to the 4-7 inch category. Temperatures are still expected to drop enough by early Thursday to dry out the snow with readings on the mountain hovering near 20 and high 20's in valley locations. 

Models are telling me Friday is full of clouds with temperatures mostly in the teens. In the morning most of the clouds and some of the associated light snow will be over Michigan and rival state Ohio and my thinking is this will help induce a period of morning sunshine over us. Clouds, when they do arrive, will be a later day thing as the aforementioned clipper tries to merge with energy offshore Friday night. Right now, this merging is expected to take place too far east for heavy snow in Vermont or almost anywhere along the northeast coast. Coastal locations could still get a snow event of sorts but our snow will be generally light with accumulations in the windblown 1-4 inch category. The wind is a bigger story Saturday. When combined with actual temperatures of around 10 degrees, gusts over 30 mph will bring wind chills well below zero and easily make for the coldest ski day of the year. Wind chills are expected to be even worse Sunday in spite of more sunshine. Actual temperatures are expected to stay in the single numbers on the mountain and this means wind chill numbers lower than  20 below. 

Our winter solstice arctic outbreak is centered over New England and eastern Canada and is easily the coldest since late January of 2024. Temperatures might be even colder were it not for the Hudson Bay remaining more than 50 percent ice-free which marks the slowest pace of ice expansion since records of this began. Still, Monday January 23rd will be on old-fashion bluebird plate special with immaculate visibility, lower winds and temperatures climbing from subzero levels into the teens. We then have some good news for the duration of the Christmas holiday week with the temperature moderation appearing slower and a greater potential for some  light warm advection snowfall either Christmas Eve, Day or both. Though the rest of the country is expecting a more rapid rise in temperatures for the holiday as arctic air is expected to retreat in North America, New England seems well positioned to make the best final stand. High pressure is expected to remain situated to over the maritime region of Canada and December's low sun angle combined with an extended stretch of northeast flow, if that indeed prevails, will prevent excessive temperatures from making an assault on our ski country through December 27th.

Without a fresh available supply of colder air, there's some reason for concern as the New Year approaches and the threat of a more organized system and precipitation increases. The risk of any heavy precipitation appears low until the last full weekend of the month and then who knows. The coldest arctic air will remain bottled up into early 2025 as well but the outlook during the first full week of the new year has also shifted cooler as more ridging is now indicated in western North America. In early January, we have the climatological cushion of the coldest month of the year and a storm in the right place without the power of the polar jet can be the right ingredients for something interesting.

6-10 inches of new snow Wednesday night into Thurday and a milder outlook Christmas to New Year's

 The outlook continues to evolve for the home stretch of 2024 including the busy holiday period and there are some significant updates to the shorter term weather picture as well. Though it is amazing the progress that numerical weather prediction (modeling) has made during my professional life, stuff always seems to find a way to defy expectation. 

The cold rain Monday night shouldn't come as any surprise. Less than a quarter inch of this is expected and it should all be over by daybreak Tuesday. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday are the bigger story since we have a torchy dry westerly wind accompanied by some breaks of sunshine. This will boost temperatures to the highest levels of the month with close to 50-degree readings in valley locations and closer to 40 up on the mountain. Wednesday's temperatures are also expected to be mild but with less wind and ultimately more cloudiness 

Wednesday's late day clouds come out ahead of a nice midweek dose of snow. It will be a warmer event with temperatures within a few degrees of the freezing mark while the snow is falling. It all begins around 7 pm Wednesday with snow showers continuing through Thursday morning. The wet snow Wednesday night will amount to 4-6 inches but readings are expected to turn colder by Thursday morning (with the additional snow showers adding 2-4, supplying skiers with a well-deserved powder day. Northern Vermont is the place to be for this event as southern Vermont is expected to receive more ice and rain and is not positioned well for Thursday's snow showers. 

The solstice period defined by Friday December 20th to Monday December 23rd is very likely going to be the coldest period of the month.  Expect readings to stay below 20 on the mountain during most of this 96-hour stretch. The snow/storm potential is still there for Saturday though it does seem like the weaker storm Wednesday has helped to realign the storm track further southeast for the weekend. Energy and some light snow from the clipper is expected to be somewhere in the Ohio Valley on Friday and will be seeking fuel and support from any energy along the Atlantic coastline. The southeast shift of any such interaction is making it more unlikely that northern Vermont sees significant snow from this though a few of the many simulations over the past 24 hours still suggest its possible. What seems more likely right now is for the aforementioned cold and some accompanying snow showers Saturday followed by cold bluebird weather Sunday into Monday. 

The period running from Christmas Eve to New Year's Day continues to look warmer,the intensity of which comes as a surprise though some sort of Christmas thaw has been almost as certain in Vermont as the sun rising in the east over the past decade. Our one exception seems to be 2017-18 which was brutally cold. I was more surprised by the culprit for all this as it seems the jet in the Pacific will become rather intense in the days before Christmas, forcing arctic air into retreat mode. Though other teleconnection indicators continue to be mixed, the arctic retreat is legit and we can expect moderating temperatures by Christmas Eve and perhaps our first taste of above freezing temperatures on Christmas Day. For now, it continues to appear dry as this moderation is occurring without significant rain or mixed precipitation in the forecast picture until the last full weekend of the month. New Year's remains far enough out on the timeline for additional changes and hopefully a shift to more mitigated warmup. 

As we pass the 75th anniversary of Mad River Glen, it dawned on me how much pop culture has changed over that span of time, specifically music, my other passion. Out of respect for this, and hopefully as a pleasant distraction from a holiday thaw or anything else going on in the world, expect to see some music show up in the threads feed and on the blog. Each year of Mad River Glen's existence will see respect get paid to a different musician. That's 75 different musicians in 75 years and a challenge to come up with one good one for each year that was relevant to the year. It will be a fun exercise for me and hopefully an enjoyable listen should you partake in any of this journey.