Rain-free outlook remains intact even as midweek snowfall forecast dwindles

The pattern has been so active in recent weeks that its been tough to keep these updates concise, each one feels like a book. Through much of this time, the ball hasn't really been bouncing our way but we did scores some nice snowfall over the weekend and now will have at least a few days to catch our breath and maybe even enjoy a bit of sunshine if we are lucky. The recent storm, now well off the New England coast is tracking well east of expectations a few days ago. Yes, it will become nearly stationary for a time, but this will happen several hundred miles further east than I was hoping. We can expect some flurries Tuesday and Wednesday but the notion that significant amounts of moisture will back its way into northern Vermont was an incorrect one. This type of snowfall is inherently difficult to predict and I am convinced we'd have a better chance of receiving it had I not discussed it at length a few days ago. 

The big picture landscape still appears about the same in spite of the drier short term outlook. A more cooperative -AO/NAO combo is going to keep the storm track further south and ensure a nice stretch of rain-free weather. Over the next 10 days, this pattern will remain relatively non-arctic and mostly consisting of above normal temperatures. Fortunately, this version of "above normal" will mostly consist of below freezing temperatures through about January 15 which means some comfortable ski weather, especially if we can score some additional snowfall. Beyond January 15th, the negative AO will get an additional boost as a ridge is expected to strengthen in the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska. This will likely bring arctic air back onto the playing field for the 2nd half of the month with the polar jet playing a more active role in the region's weather. 

In the meantime, the still somewhat irritated Pacific jet stream is still producing storms and keeping the pattern active. Our next chance at such activity comes Saturday albeit a reduced chance. This storm will likely produce some snow in a few places down south not especially used to seeing it on Thursday and Friday and then proceed to the North Carolina coast Friday evening. The storm is forecast currently to stay well offshore and not be a snow producer for the weekend but it will be the first of what I think will be a few chances to churn up something of significance. Assuming we miss out on Saturday's storm, we will see windy conditions this weekend with a few flurries and below freezing but not bitterly cold temperatures. Speaking of those additional chances for snow or a storm, I think one will come about every 3-4 days meaning the Tuesday January 12th time frame would be the next and then another chance during or just before the weekend of the 16th-17th. 

We've managed to get it pretty white and wintry out there and are probably one good storm short of some pretty good January conditions.