Sunny and tranquil for the next 5 days and then the fun begins !

We are in the midst of a quieter period of weather in Vermont. Even the clouds have given way to some sunshine and this relative bit of winter tranquility will continue through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are winter-like but hardly bitter-like and actually it's been pretty nice. Yes, we could use a deeper snow cover but at least we have a little to accompany what should be a nice 5 day stretch of January sunshine through Monday. Meanwhile, the southern branch of the jet stream will produce another rain and snow maker on Thursday and Friday but just not for us. The storm will be well offshore early this weekend but close enough to ensure our stretch of sunny days continues. 

The next chance for snow and weather comes during the middle of next week. If we are to aggregate all the available data as of now, the impact of this storm would again be south and east of us but the drama here has likely just begun. Over the past 24 hours we've had a couple runs of the operational European model show an impact in New England. It's likely a significant storm and the pattern, though not cold, will become pretty amplified by the middle of next week. I wouldn't call it likely that we get a big snow but its at least possible so we should keep watch. 

All of that tranquility in the short term will become a distant memory by late next week as the pattern evolves into what should be a more entertaining form of January weather. We will maintain the negative -AO/NAO combination and the Arctic Oscillation will get a boost from a block in the jet stream expected to form north of Alaska. This combined with the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is expected to bring arctic air back to the North American mid-latitudes. And that is not all said the cat in the hat (sorry but I've been reading that story every day to my 2 year old, he doesn't want me to read anything else). Before the advance of any initial offering of polar air, we should get a major amplification of the jet stream around the time of the January 16th-17th long MLK weekend. We could see several outcomes resulting from this but most of them look pretty good for us and should include some new snow and maybe a more organized snow producing storm. 

Arctic air may spend some time fighting for control of the pattern during the January 18th-22nd time frame but i would rather have this as opposed to the polar jet suppressing all of our weather. We also have an unfrozen Lake Champlain poised to deposit some terrain enhanced snow upon the earliest opportunity and that opportunity appears to be on the horizon (possibly beginning MLK weekend). Overall, it looks to be a pretty solid period of winter in Vermont and I am certainly excited for it.