The NYC metro got slammed with 15-30 inches of snow accompanied by some ferocious winds. It was a classic nor'easter that lived up to the hype and hopefully provided a break from the monotony of life in the big city during this almost year-long pandemic. Northern Vermont will get a piece of this storm but not the best piece. The snow very early Tuesday morning will amount to 4-8 inches, falling at a light or moderate intensity until early afternoon before tapering to mostly flurries. Winds will be gusty out of the north, but the storm will have reached its peak intensity and become rather stretched out off the northeast coast allowing for the lesser overall impact not only in Vermont, but throughout much of northern New England. That said, the leftover plume of moisture appears to line up pretty well with a favorable wind direction and a decent low level area of instability Wednesday. Snow showers should enhance along the spine of the Green Mountains by midday Wednesday and an additional 3 to as much as 7 inches is my guess at a result (7-14 two day total). Winds will remain a little gusty (10-20 mph) but will have diminished somewhat from Tuesday, temperatures will hover in the 20's and the snow will be fluffy in nature making it one of the better days of the season.
January 2021 has now concluded and what a remarkable month it was. Sure snowfall was maybe only a touch above average and the sub-zero temperatures over the weekend only pulled the month to within about 2 degrees of average on the above side. What was remarkable was that we recorded an above average month while not experiencing any above-freezing temperatures above roughly 2500. What we also didn't experience was any rain. The Champlain Valley saw it, parts of the St Lawrence Valley on Quebec got wet but the Vermont high country kept it all on the snow side. You would think a month like that during a Vermont winter would be common but it is more of an exception than a rule and I want a trophy for such things. I also want to keep the streak going and I can say emphatically that we will. Low lying areas will again get fairly close to the freezing mark both Thursday and Friday but the late week push of mild weather will not only fall completely flat, but be replaced by clouds and a period of snow capable of yielding a few inches prior to the upcoming weekend.
I got the needed inspiration for a blog update looking at the incoming polar jet this weekend. What an incredible turn of events. A week or so ago, I had referred to the steady state nature of the teleconnection indices as like a tall man stalemate in a professional tennis match. That stale mate will get broken this weekend with the persistent high latitude blocking scoring the victory and allowing the North American continent to get flooded with arctic air not only in Canada but deep into the United States. Its a massive bust for the Euro and Canadian ensemble packages that had suggested for some time that any cold would get bottled up across the Pacific Northwest. With the cold comes the polar jet of course and it will be the real slim shady this time, not a modified or mini-me version. In short, it will certainly impact the storm track but will it suppress potential activity this weekend or will something cook along the east coast as the more current Euro model is suggesting and the American model is hinting. We should be able to procure a bit of snow Sunday in either outcome and its an incredible change relative to what was indicated for this time period 4-5 days ago.
Arctic air will rein over Vermont and all of New England for much of of the 2nd week of February. The core of the cold will be situated over the upper Midwest but the arctic outbreak appears broad enough to cast a wide net. The storm track will also be further south as mentioned but with the trough axis far enough to our west, the door isn't totally shut on action along the eastern seaboard.
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