In today's update we can focus our attention on the outlook for the rest of the current month, a February that I expect to be the coldest since the polar extravaganza of 2015. In addition to the continued existence of blocking in NE Canada, a feature that will get pushed east toward the Labrador Sea, the strengthening area of high latitude jet stream blocking over the Arctic Circle, mainly north of Russia, will bring a much stronger version of the polar jet on to the playing field over the coming few weeks. We've managed to travel this winter road for 5 weeks without a serious thaw so why not continue for a few more.
Thursday is likely to go down as one of the quieter days of the next two weeks. It won't be especially cold with temperatures making a run at 30 degrees, winds will continue to diminish and we may see a few intervals of sun to go along with clouds and a few snow flurries. On Friday we can expect more clouds, more wind and similar temperatures, but we will also see a period of snow capable of delivering a few inches by the evening.
We will begin to feel the effects of the incoming polar jet over the weekend. It will be colder but not extreme with temperatures generally in the 20's during the day. It appears to be a very good lake effect snow set up in the snow belts but with winds expected to be west-southwest, the snow bands will be aimed accordingly and in Vermont this means that the best accumulating snow will be close to the Canadian border. The MRV will see some snow showers Saturday but I expect accumulations to be very light. We had some questions relating to the potential existence of a substantial east coast storm Sunday. This looks entirely more suppressed as of Wednesday but the polar jet will bring in an impulse potent enough to deliver a widespread lighter snow to Vermont on Sunday. This will come in advance of a more intense area of arctic chill which should arrive Sunday night into Monday bringing temperatures close to zero for the start of next week.
As a whole, we know that next week will be chilly with temperatures that might fail to break 20 for the entire week. We also know about the propensity of the polar jet to suppress the storm track. That said, the mean trough is expected to establish itself over the center of the North American continent allowing both some milder temperatures to linger along the southeast coast early next week and keeping the storm track aimed in our direction Monday and Tuesday. So in spite of the polar jet, we could see a snow producing system in the Tuesday time frame with colder drier weather winning out late next week. So in summary, though the forecast for the coming week might seen drier, we actually have chances for some light snow Friday, again on Sunday and maybe something bigger Tuesday, February 9th.
And all that high latitude blocking leaves no place for the arctic air to go except to hang around. Ensembles continue to argue about where the most intense chill will be focused, an important question as we head toward the holiday in terms of where the storm track might set up. The polar jet is likely to bring the peak of the chill into New England around the 12th or 13th of February (Friday/Saturday) and if the jet softens somewhat thereafter, the door might open for a storm by February 15th or 16th (This includes the holiday Monday).
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