The milder weather still looms (weekend & early next week) yet the overall outlook continues to look colder both in the shorter and longer range

Spent some time over the past few updates describing the intensity of the incoming warmth We still have that warmth and it continues to look pretty intense especially during the early to middle part of next week. The warm weather appears to be a 4-5 day problem if you see it from that vantage point. Perhaps you're looking forward to some corn snow and with little doubt we have plenty of that coming. If you want a colder weather trend however we have that also. Some of that for the end of the current week and more of that following the warmth after March 11th. 

It's not hard for blue sky in March to send temperatures soaring. This certainly was the case for Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, we have very little of that; in fact,  the low level push of chill continues to defy the weather pattern and is even likely to produce a wintry result if you can believe it. Temperatures will start on the milder side Thursday, essentially near the freezing mark. The push of low level cold looks both stronger and arrives earlier however and will effectively hold readings in place through much of the day. Lots of precipitation on the east coast weather map for Thursday, yet all of it will remain south of us through the ski day and a chunk of the evening. Gradually however, the shield of moisture will push north and it's likely snow that falls for a time during the overnight, changing to some sleet or freezing rain before dawn Friday. Some preliminary high resolution output shows some significant icing in southern and even central Vermont Thursday night so please make note of that. In our case, staying on the north edge of the precipitation shield will hopefully keep us out of most of the ice and in a light snow situation that ends before dawn and is capable of yielding a small accumulation of less than 3 inches. It's worth keeping an eye on this given the trends. Snow would have seemed impossible in this weather pattern 5-7 days ago look what's evolving. 

I mentioned in the last update that the low level clouds (low visibility) and chill is likely to linger through  early Saturday and eventually get flushed out later Saturday, letting the March mild push wash over the region from southwest to northeast. A good part of Saturday's ski day could feature readings in the 30's until the very end, where the push of warmth arrives. Showers or periods of lighter rain are possible throughout the day. Sunday appears dry with both blue ski possible and better visibility likely. It's a cold front that pushes the weather out, but it's the kind of front that will actually allow daytime temperatures to be milder. Sunday appears to be 40-plus on the mountain and maybe 50-plus in valley areas. 

The warmth  is expected to intensify on Monday with any sunshine pushing readings to near 60 in valley areas and 50's on the mountain. The upper level pattern and some model output would suggest the warmest day to be Wednesday with the threat of both wind and rain accompanying the mild weather. There are more hints today that we could avoid such an outcome with a weather system tracking close enough to prevent the warmest of scenarios. If I had to guess on the eventual outcome, I would say that 3 days are 50-plus on the mountain and one is close to 60. Certainly it appears very difficult to avoid the rainfall, some of which happens on the aforementioned Saturday and more is likely for the middle of next week. 

And then it's colder and more wintry again. The EPO is shown to weaken and that's accompanied by the development of more blocking  over the northeastern Eurasian continent. The weather pattern doesn't appear capable of sustaining this cold for the duration of March. It does look like it could be particularly intense over a period of 5 days and could even produce yet another mid-March winter storm much like we've had on so many other winters this century. It also could evolve some rather serious arctic chill so don't put the winter coats and extra layers away just yet. 

 

Parts of the forecast period look colder today, though the expectation for lots of early March warmth remains

In spite of the warm weather headed in our direction, Monday morning's 10 below ranks as one of the colder mornings of the season, even as strong March sunshine brings temperatures back into the teens. There's an end in sight to the mild weather and a section of the forecast period doesn't appear as warm though it doesn't change the overall theme of the update. We also still have snow lined up for Tuesday evening which I get to talk about first. 

I love a cold bluebird day and Monday is certainly one of the better ones of the year given the relatively calm winds. These conditions will persist through early Tuesday with temperatures beginning the day around zero along with more sunshine. The thermometer is expected to rise quickly Tuesday and may eclipse the freezing mark briefly even as clouds increase later in the ski day. The snow is expected to begin around 6 pm, timed perfectly with the onset of darkness. Temperatures profiles suggest that the falling snow occurs with readings in the high 20's with accumulations in the 3-5 inch range. The snow is over before dawn and there could be some freezing drizzle very early Wednesday. The clouds on Wednesday are expected to gradually break for some blue sky with the thermometer warming to near 40 by the end of the day. Skiers looking for the driest snow should certainly venture out early with the warm weather later in the day expected to impact most of the mountain.

Thursday appears like a dry day with clouds returning. It appears as if temperatures fall back under the freezing mark in the morning and then rise well above that during the day. Model guidance would suggest an afternoon high close to 40 though it appears to me as if we could exceed that. Friday appears to be a different story entirely and a day that certainly appears different then a few days ago. A low level push of cold arrives from Canada and I would expect this to be strong enough to keep temperatures closer to the freezing mark through much of the day on the mountain. Model consensus would suggest the heaviest precipitation stays to our south with light rain or light freezing rain most likely for a period in central and northern Vermont. In spite of the large warm weather ridge parked over the east coast in this time frame, the low level chill appears formidable enough to remain in place through much of Saturday, keeping it in the 30's for a time with clouds and low visibility. The push of warm air might finally win out very late in the ski day Saturday and this could be accompanied by some rainfall. Sunday continues to appear like a torch with temperatures surging into the 50's. Though clouds could break for some sunshine, the chance for showers continues. 

Sunday's 50-plus temperatures is the first of what we expect will be a few days with very excessive March warmth. Each of the next three days of the week (at least) are likely to see readings in the 50's with and 1-2 days could exceed 60. The middle part of next week has an elevated risk where, higher winds, very warm temperatures and rain spur a rapid melt off. Still some time to alter this evolution and I am aware of some events on the mountain we would certainly like to keep some snow around for. Ensembles have come around to the idea of a more favorable winter weather jet stream picture for the middle of the month. We don't totally calm some of the anger coming out of the Pacific, but we do get pretty neutral while operational models continue to show the return of some colder air prior to the weekend of March 14th and 15th.