Lots of wet weather on the way especially this Saturday and into at least early Sunday

One weather system out on the horizon has some of my attention in the first half of April; otherwise, I consider this a fairly typical up and down April weather pattern including a little bit of everything. Always find the first half of April interesting in the showcasing of so many types of extreme and severe weather. New England can still experience major winter storms as we did last year while heat is not uncommon in the south while the transitions between warm and cold can feature varying types of severe weather. Unless a winter storm materializes next week or in some later week, this will likely be my last regular update until I can do a seasonal summary. 

One of those weather transitions is occurring in southern Ontario Wednesday. A few hours of blizzard-like conditions in Toronto then gives way to ice, rain and wind and then much milder weather Thursday. Some of that weather is headed our way though I don't think we can expect too much in the way of snow. A burst Wednesday evening can give us a small accumulation and then its some later evening ice, eventually a bit of rain and for Thursday we have showery and considerably milder weather as southwesterly flow establishes itself. The higher 30-plus dewpoints should help soften the snow if you can avoid the sporadic rain. Lower dewpoints, and more sun can be expected for Friday. Temperatures will be low enough to freeze surfaces Friday morning and readings will hover around 40  on the mountain during the day meaning more variable snow surfaces. 

The weekend, especially Saurday is expected to be pretty wet as yet another storm takes a St Lawrence Valley storm track. Incredible to watch the storm track take on that mode in a general sense beginning in March and this continues with the Saturday rain. Temperatures appear to be above the freezing mark on most sections of the mountain Saturday though not by much. Expect a cold rain with readings in the 30's. More lighter rain is expected for the early part of Sunday before drier weather may begin to envelop the region for the later part of the day. 

Next week will feature the return of winter like temperatures for the first 3 days. There should be an opportunity for some snowfall as well with a good 2-3 stretch of sub-freezing temperatures at the higher elevations (valley areas will reach the 40's in this time frame). Models are signaling the opportunity for a major storm system late in the week into the 2nd weekend in April. The storm, a classic wound up, closed off storm could hug the northeast for multiple days in the best traditions of coastal New England weather in April. The storm would arrive as the aforementioned early week cold weather departs so a major winter storm is unlikely but not impossible. If the storm stays far enough south, the weather could actually turn out to be fairly nice on the weekend of April 12th to 13th. I'll keep an eye out and update this call if needed.

Cold side of an intense temperature boundary produces a snowy Saturday forecast !

 March finally has a chance to make a bit of noise in the 9th inning and it comes as part of a crazy weather setup over New England. By midday on Saturday, New England will be divided by one of the sharpest temperature gradients that one could possibly see in our region. Parts of northern Vermont and certainly northern Maine will see temperatures stuck in the 20's while portions of Connecticut reach the middle 70's. Close to 50 degrees. It's a pretty good bet that some weather will emerge from that kind of setup and we certainly have some to discuss. We haven't yet reached a total certainty on the outcome, but we are getting close and it looks pretty good for snow if you continue to be a fan of that. If you're not a fan of snow so late in the season, there is plenty of non snow in the forecast thereafter as the pattern in the first half of April appears to feature a good bit of everything including mild weather. 

Don't want to forget about the dusting to an inch of snow that we can expect by Friday morning on the mountain. It won't be much, though its part of an important feature since the weak cold front responsible will begin to allow cold early spring arctic air to build across northern New England. The airmass will actually strengthen its grip Friday night and allow temperatures to drop into the 20's even as clouds thicken and snow begins falling by morning. If model simulations are accurate, we can expect a few inches by first tracks time Saturday and if the Euro is telling a true story, the Mad River Glen to Stowe corridor will be in the best zone for heavy snowfall throughout the day and into Saturday evening. What could go wrong ? Plenty. Models aren't in total agreement on this zone of heaviest snowfall and even the Euro has sleet and ice awfully close to us. I would prefer to look later versions of the high resolution data, but some of the available stuff has us mixing with sleet and freezing rain Saturday. All that said, we sit in a good spot and its a pretty narrow zone of "good". 100 miles north and you'll exit the heaviest precip and 200 miles south and it might be 72 degrees with the sun out. Our best case scenario on snow would be close to a foot and I wouldn't bet on that outcome yet though its a reasonable chance (20-30 percent) while 5-10 inches most likely. Less than 5 inches still occupies a decent chunk of the outcome spectrum (maybe another 20-30 percent).

Saturday's winter weather event comes from a weak wave of low pressure and the precipitation is mostly result of that sharp temperature gradient. The main area of low pressure actually comes at us Monday and though cold will put up a decent fight, the track of this system is too far north to support any additional snow. Models continue to be at odds over the actual track and that will impact temperatures some but not precipitation which should be rain in either case. Intense arctic cold will envelop the region by Tuesday and may be accompanied by a bit of snow upon its arrival before we get a decent period of sun from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. More weather is expected to come at us late in the week. The GFS is showing a winter storm while other models depict a much milder scenario. Seems like a mismatch for now. Beyond the later part of next week, ensembles show a bit of milder air and then a move toward cooler weather again. Stay tuned to threads updates for further details on Saturday's winter storm and I'll have at least one more regular update next week detailing any additional winter weather.

Instability snow for later Wednesday and a precipitation battle for the weekend

As I mentioned, it's almost remarkable how March totally fell apart from a standpoint of new snow. We did receive a number of really good corn-horn days, but the month has been startling for its lack of snow. The events that we seem to be earmarked for have fallen apart or under-performed and the pattern has hardly been supportive for too many of those regardless. It's easily been the least snowiest March since the 2015-2016 winter that wasn't, but March of 2016 was hardly a surprise and felt just like a continuation of bad luck. Northern Vermont has had a very productive winter up to now and even the current month, though warm, has seen similar temps to last year which was very snowy by way of comparison. 

This week was suppose to provide a bit of an encore performance and I can't say I am enjoying the song choice as of yet. An enhanced area of instability on Wednesday is expected to situate itself over the state and provide an opportunity for some elevation sensitive snow showers and an accumulation. The day should feature some sun to start and then clouds will enhance and snow should begin, falling at varying intensities. I have to admit some hesitancy because of our struggles this month, but this is undoubtedly the deepest area of instability I have seen over the northern Green Mountains this season. Not atypical to see the best instability late in March with the higher sun angle yet still notable. Most of the ski day features more of a westerly wind over MRG which can still mean snow showers though the heaviest, with that wind direction, usually set up farther north. The wind is expected to shift and become more northwesterly in the evening which may be the time when snow is accumulating the heaviest. I am going to put out a 4-8 inch expectation with 1-3 falling Wednesday afternoon and 3-6 falling Wednesday evening and during the overnight. These events always have bust potential and like I said to open, almost every event this month has under-performed. Snowfall is expected to abate for the ski day Thursday with temperatures creeping just above the freezing mark on the mountain. Lighter snow showers are anticipated for Thursday night thanks to a quick moving disturbance which should clear for the ski day Friday. 

I am certainly not overwhelmed with the pattern for the last few days of March into early April though I will say this. There is a very impressive buildup of cold across southern Canada. Though it isn't expected to have a major impact on U.S. weather generally, it could impact Vermont and it gives us a chance, just a chance, for some sort of decent early spring event. On Saturday, a very warm push of air is pushing northward as this cold tries to anchor itself over Quebec. This gives us the chance for some overrunning snowfall Friday night and even some ice for early Saturday. Cold air is then expected to make another push south as the weekend progresses and another period of very cold rain, ice and some snow is again possible. Models aren't indicating a big event for the early part of next week and it's unlikely, yet not completely out of the question. Just a question the timing of what could be multiple waves of low pressure riding along an intense north to south temperature boundary. I would expect a day or two of wintry like temperatures just after the month flips to April  and then there are indications of another surge of mild weather for the first full weekend of April.

Colder weather and snowfall is expected over the next week though there aren't indications of a "big event" as of now

We've managed to make it out of our 2-week long warm stretch and are still alive and kicking with lots of thin cover. On Thursday, much of the New England coastline was socked-in with clouds and drizzle while Vermont ski country snuck another day of warm sunshine in. We have colder weather awaiting for the rest of the month and its simply a question of whether this pattern can produce a big storm or some deep snow. I'll take it anyway I can get it as we are 6 weeks from May and there is plenty of time for more warm weather to settle in then. 

Some rain Thursday is still expected to change to a bit of snow across the high country as a new area of low pressure slowly gathers some strength and passes over Cape Cod. The snow will persist for a few hours and accumulations in the high elevations will be in the 2-5 inch range by daybreak. Valley areas are only likely to see 1-2. Sunshine returns and dominates the skies for much of the ski day Friday. Winds will start out a bit blustery and diminish somewhat by the end of the day allowing temperatures to fall back below the freezing mark Friday night. Looks like we can sneak another semi spring-like day in on Saturday. The near 50-degree temps will be confined to the valley while readings on much of the mountain should be in the lower 40's. Much of Saturday, like Friday, will feature sunshine and then clouds will increase later in the day. 

A decent little impulse, bringing a stronger dose of early spring chill will also bring a dose of snowfall Saturday evening. Though only a temporary window, the setup looks excellent for some snowfall that should get a boost from what is now a more open Lake Champlain. It was the closest since 2019, but the lake never did freeze over thanks to the stronger than expected mild surge we got in later February and the return of milder weather in March. It's only a few hours, but our mountains should get some snow showers and squalls capable of delivering 3-6 inches ahead of a mostly sub-freezing, gusty and wintry Sunday that will feature the return of more sunshine and good visibility. 

Sunday's cold is well-timed ahead of an approaching storm system for Monday and we should be able to procure some snow out of this system, though models are not indicating the storm I had hoped would materialize. It's been the story of the year, whether it be a clipper or some other type of system. Transferring enough energy to the northeast coast to produce a more consolidated nor'easter has been a real struggle. I am sure there is a reason behind it also and in some ways it's helped revive our results from clipper type events this winter while coastal areas have really struggled with total snowfall. In this case, a matured cyclone traveling into the eastern Great Lakes will never make a complete coastal transfer, at least according to current simulations, and though some snowfall is expected, we aren't in a healthy conveyor of moisture for an extended period of time. Unless this changes, I would keep snowfall expectations below the 6-inch threshold. Cold weather is still expected as this is all happening and there should be an additional opportunity for snow showers either later Monday or Tuesday. There are also other opportunities for snow in this cold weather window. Models are hinting that a midweek system will blossom along the coast that could bring some snow. Closer to the last weekend in March, some warm advection snowfall is also possible ahead of what should be another push of colder weather to finish out the month. 

The teleconnection indices have neutralized for the very early part of April and there isn't a strong signal for a anomalous temperatures in either direction relative to normal. There are some indications that a cold pool of air could situate itself in eastern Canada and provide interior New England with more winter weather even as the mid-Atlantic and southern United States experience more warm temperatures.

Rain turns to accumulating snow Thursday night and watching a potentially bigger storm early next week

At least we managed some outstanding corn-days ahead of the rain Sunday night. It was the 2nd in a series of rain events associated by this +EPO driven weather pattern. There's a a third event that will start as some rain and then the news gets better, at least if you remain a fan of seeing more winter weather after St Patrick's Day. 

The weather this Tuesday and Wednesday can easily be compared to what we saw this past Friday and Saturday and in the same order. Sub-freezing temperatures in the early morning will be quickly erased by strong doses of March sunshine. Temperatures on Tuesday will be up close to 50 at the base and a bit cooler well up on the mountain followed by readings near 60 at the base Wednesday. Winds should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty. 

We can expect another mild day Thursday though clouds will be on the increase and this alone is expected to keep temperatures a little cooler in spite of a milder morning. Precipitation is expected to hold off until evening and yet again, we are expected to see rain at least at the start. I am very encouraged by recent data from the Euro, which is showing a new area of low pressure near the Connecticut coast quickly becoming the dominant part of this weather feature. If this happens as forecast, we should see rain turn to some significant snow Thursday night and accumulate several inches by Friday morning. This is an excellent way to greet what we expect to be a new weather pattern featuring a much friendlier jet stream in the Pacific. I'll have more confidence in an accumulation prediction in a day or two, but my early call right now would be 4-8 by the start of the ski day Friday. 

We should see clouds and snow showers break for some sunshine later Friday and most of the mountain should stay sub-freezing while valley areas creep above freezing by a few degrees. Saturday appears to be a more typical March day with chilly temperatures in the morning giving way to near 40-degree afternoon warmth. A stronger dose of late March arctic chill is expected to bring temperatures below normal for Sunday out ahead of what could be a very interesting few days. 

I think this friendlier early spring weather pattern should persist into at least early April and the best end result of it all could come early next week. The euro ensembles are showing a strong storm signal with a fresh supply of cold air in place. Good support mechanisms in the jet stream both up and downstream and I think its just a question of what kind of storm we can churn up, specifically the intensity and evolution. By my count, we remain under 10 inches of snow for the month of March and this is kind of storm that could triple that very easily so its worth watching in the Monday, March 24th to Wednesday March 26th time frame.

Terrific early spring weather Friday into Saturday before hostile Pacific jet stream brings rain Sunday night

 It's not just an effort to focus on the positive, there's some legitimate good news out there. Though we remain enveloped in a weather pattern dominated by a very hostile jet stream in the Pacific Ocean, it can produce some good corn horn days and it also looks like it will subside just after the spring equinox, potentially opening the door for an encore of early spring winter weather late this month. 

Friday looks simply fantastic. I had been concerned about clouds, and it now looks very sunny with sub-freezing morning temperatures giving way to lots of 50-degree readings. The lighter winds and lower dewpoints make it the kind of spring-like warmth that doesn't produce a ton of melt off. Saturday appears to be a warmer version of Friday with near 60-degree readings in low lying areas, 50's well up on the mountain along with slightly higher southerly winds. The rain is likely to hold off for most of the ski day on Sunday which is also good news. Still, the approaching storm on Sunday is a problem child. The storm track, which is still expected to be deep into remote Quebec, allows southerly flow to bring both mild temperatures and eventually the mild 40-plus dewpoints into Vermont. When combined with the stronger winds, the nearly inch of rain that we are expecting Sunday night will certainly melt a considerably amount of snow and cause some localized flooding. Check with NWS BTV for specific intel on flood risks if that is a concern for you. Rain is over Monday morning and a cold front will bring temperatures lower, but mild weather is expected to generally continue through the middle of next week. 

A positive EPO, indicative, of an angry Pacific Jet has been with us now for most of March and is expected to continue through most of next week. Unfortunately, this means more trouble for an incoming storm in the Wednesday to Thursday (March 19th-20th) time frame. This storm won't track as far north as its predecessor and the airmass behind this system appears cold enough to allow for some potential snowfall on the back end. I am more encouraged beyond this aforementioned storm since there are clear indications that we cam tame this beast in the Pacific, get the EPO back into negative territory and even set up some downstream blocking to our northeast. It's difficult to make promises or setting expectations too high late in March, but its worth keeping an eye on the last 10 days of March.

Happy corn-horn day Tuesday with some sunshine, the mild weather this weekend will feature much more cloudiness

Our first big springtime corn horn day is on time and on target for Tuesday. Early sunshine and blustery southwest winds will send readings soaring from sub-freezing levels in the very early morning to 50 degrees by 10 am. Even areas well up on the mountain should get impacted and could touch 50 degrees while areas near the base see temperatures up near 60. And just like that, it's over. Wednesday is back to sub-freezing cold with readings holding in the high 20's. Early Sunshine gives way to clouds and winds should remain quiet. 

The increase in cloudiness on Wednesday does precede a bit of light overrunning snowfall. We aren't expecting much early Thursday, most of which (at least during the day) should remain cloudy with the snow amounting to less than 2 inches very early in the day. Temperatures are expected to sneak above freezing again on Thursday and then soar into the 40's Friday as southerly flow envelops most of New England. 

This is simply not an exciting March pattern as of now. The jet stream in the Pacific has become very hostile and simply overwhelming parameters that might support coach, which there aren't too many of anyway. Arctic air has remained close enough this week to limit the corn horn weather to one day this week, but is expected to retreat thanks the storm discussed in the last update which is poised to track deep into Quebec this weekend. The storm does appear pretty stretched out by the time rainfall arrives in Vermont on Sunday. Before that happens, clouds should limit the visibility and the excessive temperatures. Despite that, we should still prepare for an extended stretch where readings exceed 40 degrees including the overnights when temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will not fall too much. Regarding the rain producing storm, there are hints that low pressure could help refocus the storm on the coast. Were this to be in the case, it would be nice if this would limit the rainfall across Vermont which would limit the melt-off and associated flood risk. Snowfall, if we get any out of this storm, would come during the day Monday as the storm is pulling away and colder temperatures finally work their way back into the state. 

The March 17-21st period does not appear especially wintry or cold. There's another storm to contend with right around the time of the spring equinox which would be late in this period. Though we have a better chance at a improved storm trajectory, the supply of cold air appears limited. The last full week March appears a bit better as conditions in the Pacific become less hostile and some support emerges from both the PNA nad NAO indices.