MLK weekend starts mild, finishes cold and now includes a bit more potential snowfall

 We saw a little mixed precipitation with the wet snow that fell on New Year's Day and since then we've seen persistent cold and a lot over-performing nickle and dime events. It's added up to some fantastic mid-January skiing which will carry right though the MLK holiday period. The weather situation for the weekend has evolved a bit and now includes some likely additional snow on Sunday though the same general theme holds with milder weather at the start and eventually a bitterly cold finish on Monday. 

Winds are expected to become southerly on Saturday and in certain circumstances, those can really rip through the valley and warm temperatures beyond expectations. It's possible we could see temperatures up toward 40 on the valley floor with a little early sunshine. Across the higher ski areas though readings are expected to stay close to or below freezing with snow developing around midday. I try not to get too optimistic in these type of setups since the moisture and initial storm to the north appear disorganized and wind isn't favorable. In spite of that, we could score 2-4 inches with much of it falling right near the end of the ski day Saturday. The warmer valley floor is more likely to see 1-2 inches of wet snow and there are models out there predicting a little rain at low elevations Saturday night as precipitation lightens up. Temperatures Sunday morning will fall back into the teens with arctic air building across the region. The story however relates to an area of low pressure expected to strengthen along the east coast Sunday. The expected track of this storm, east of Cape Cod, does not put any part of northern Vermont in the heaviest snow but their remains a rather broad range of model scenarios that do include a decent period of snowfall late Sunday. The Canadian model has the storm tracking the furthest west and indicates a foot or more of snow for MLK Monday. The consensus and my expectation, is for a period of light snow and 1-4 inch accumulation for will be a cold and blustery Monday with temperatures near zero for much of the day. Interestingly, the formation of the storm should help keep the winds lower for Sunday but could then help make them worse as the storm continues to strengthen downstream of us Monday. The situation with the snow needs to be watched as models have a notoriously difficult time with a good polar jet present. I wouldn't totally dismiss the Canadian model scenario or one that would have us receiving very little snow Sunday night. 

The arctic air blast expected to peak in the Monday-Wednesday period is likely to be the strongest for eastern North America collectively though we may see a stronger one more focused on us later in the season. It appears shallow and stable enough to cut down on potential new snowfall through January 23rd and even bring the sun out for a few decent stretches in this same time frame. More clouds and some warm advection snowfall will then become likely later in the week. There have been indications of a more organized storm system taking a run up the coast at us later in the week, but as of late Friday, that action appears suppressed to the south. 

Over the past few days, I've seen a wide range of scenarios painted for the last week of January and some of those have included mixed precipitation, above freezing temperatures and even some rainfall. I would certainly be inclined to believe the more general idea that cold and more unsettled weather will shift its focus to the western U.S. in this period since ensembles are clearly indicating a loss in PNA support. It's been a very cold month so far across the southern U.S. and those folks will certainly get a reprieve by the 26th or 27th. Across New England, their appears to be enough evidence, at least to me, that we stay cold and this is anchored by the continued support of a tame jet stream in the Pacific. Even if we get some slight tightening or a neutralization in the EPO, it won't be enough to scour the cold out of southern Canada and parts of New England. Additionally, this places us in the line of fire for storms and my guess is we get some sort of impact from one between the 27th and 31st of the month. A dry January means different things to different people and if you have a goal based on the traditional definition then you more than half way there. The no-rain definition is the one I am thinking about and the dream, for now, is still alive in that regard.

Only a few inches of snow indicated for the front part of the holiday weekend before bitterly cold air overpowers us

It's become tradition for a significant snow producer to hit on MLK weekend at Mad River Glen. It's happened so many times; in fact, that I almost have come to expect that kind of trend in modeling as the period approaches. So far however, we've yet to see it. Weather is certainly a big story with plenty to discuss including some snowfall, yet the big storm is proving to be a bit elusive so far. That said, conditions have been excellent with the recent run of cold weather and the cumulative impact of all the nickle and dime events. 

More powder and a little bit of midday and afternoon sunshine certainly turns Wednesday into a winner. Temperatures in the low teens and a stiff breeze will make it the coldest day of the week though it certainly will pale in comparison to conditions last week. Winds will abate for Thursday and Friday and clouds are expected to prevail both days, but accumulating snow appears less likely with much of the limited moisture focused on areas both south and west of Vermont. 

The story for the weekend goes like this. The chess pieces are set for a massive winter southward surge of arctic cold poised to overspread much of the continent. On Saturday, we'll remain out ahead of all that arctic air and southwest winds will boost temperatures up toward the 30-degree mark. The push of milder air will provide us with a period of light snow for Saturday and an accumulation of a few inches. The system in question doesn't appear organized unfortunately and the wave of low pressure expected to form later in the weekend is likely to focus the winter weather on snow-starved southern New England though things can certainly change. The bigger story is the temperatures. After the relatively mild day Saturday, readings will plunge into the teens on Sunday and then close to zero on Monday. Unless we see some material changes with how any subsequent storm might impact New England Sunday into Monday, the shallow, bitterly cold arctic air is likely going cut down on potential snowfall amounts late in the holiday period. I am at the risk of bear hugging current model simulations which always change especially with the polar jet on the prowl so stay tuned. 

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind dominate the weather story for Monday and Tuesday with some sunshine being the small consolation prize. Recent model simulations are suggesting some light snowfall toward the middle of the week from warm advection following what should be a decent stretch of sub-zero temperatures. The later part of next week should feature a moderation in temperatures and some potential storminess along the east coast has at least at giving us something. I tend to think we have a better chance at a significant storm during the last week of January where its indicated that milder air across the southeast battles it out with arctic air which is expected continue to have a presence over southern Canada, the Great lakes region and portions of the west-central US.

Wintry but quiet week of weather in VT is followed by some storm potential for MLK weekend and extreme cold thereafter

Lots of weather news around the country in the near term led of course by the devastating fires in Southern California. A distant second would probably be the recent snowfall across the deep south. With the wind having died out somewhat across Vermont, the state and skiers in particular will enjoy a quieter stretch of wintry weather in the coming days. It won't last as potential storminess is beginning to come into view for MLK weekend followed by a widespread extreme outbreak of cold across eastern North America. We stand a reasonable chance now of recording our coldest overall month in nearly a decade across northern Vermont if some of the simulated cold for next week indeed comes to fruition. 

Lets begin with the next few days which will again feature some continuous lighter snowfall, ending hopefully as some heavier snow showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A clipper system over the northern Great Lakes wants to play a little hopscotch on interior New England. This dance has it and its associated moisture decaying somewhat as it tries to make an approach and ultimately the system will reestablish itself in southern Nova Scotia and heavier snows are not expected for us. That said, light snow, capable of accumulating an inch or two during the ski day Monday will be followed by more snow showers on Tuesday. Like with many clipper type system, that window when winds turn more northwesterly, which is expected later in the day Tuesday, will provide MRG the opportunity for some heavier snow showers and a 3-6 inch accumulation before the ski day Wednesday. Colder temperatures are expected to return for what we hope to be a powdery Wednesday, though Monday and Tuesday's readings will be comfortable, easily reaching the 20's on the mountain both days. 

Our best shot at some sunshine and decent visibility comes Wednesday though I should mention that the computer guidance is telling me it will remain cloudy so I will split the difference and say some brief intervals of sun. Clouds should prevail for Thursday and Friday and some light snow is expected to accompany those clouds occasionally. At this time accumulations late in the week appear minimal. 

MLK weekend is where it all gets interesting. Smoothing all the crazy particulars, which is what the ensemble simulations do when they aggregate all the different simulations, one would expect some snow on Saturday and a few inches of accumulation and then the bitterly cold air would gradually build across the region Sunday into Monday. Temperatures on Saturday might reach 30 fall into the teens on Sunday and perhaps end the holiday period near zero. Seems easy enough, but there is a lot of potential noise in there as several different individual simulations have indicated in recent days. As cold builds across much of North America, a ridge across the southeast part of the continent will push back some and there's a reasonable chance that a more considerable storm materializes from this and impacts the northeast during the weekend before the brutal cold takes over. Expect the forecast to evolve in the coming days. The presence of the polar jet can make it very difficult to resolve detail beyond a few days. 

We've had a few temporary outbreaks of chill in the past few years but the outbreak of arctic cold next week follows a few weeks of garden variety cold and is expected to hit the United States when the Great Lakes have some ice cover and much of the country has snow on the ground (parts of southern New England being the exception). Could be jumping the gun on this call, but the cold outbreak could be the worst in nearly a decade or at least rival what we saw in 2019 in terms of both coverage and intensity. 2019 was the last year we froze Lake Erie and that happened only briefly.  The question for Vermont and skiers is whether the shallow, stable and extreme arctic cold, with temperatures ranging from -15 to 10 above, will overwhelm the pattern entirely and limit the snowfall or whether the southeast ridge can stay potent enough to send a storm up the coast. We could see clipper systems also though many of those head south of us in these setups.  The pattern is expected to relax some after January 24th though I expect it to remain mostly cold for the duration of the month.

Lots of chances for lighter snows in the coming week and wind much less of a story

Sunshine made a nice return for Friday and although the wind is still blowing, it is finally beginning to abate. Was looking through my notes late this week and I believe this is the windiest stretch of weather I can remember, at least since the big arctic outbreak of early 2018. Speaking of big arctic outbreaks, we have one of those to discuss in the longer term and the shorter term forecast still has no big storms to discuss, but still multiple opportunities for snow from smaller disturbances. 

Much of the ski day on Saturday will have a steady light snow. We can expect a 2-4 inch snowfall on the mountain and maybe upwards of 5 inches if we get lucky. The respite from the wind will be very welcome though. Wind speeds won't drop to zero but they will be materially lighter than what they have been for the better part of the first 10 days of 2025. No snow for Sunday but a reasonably comfortable to ski with clouds and a few intervals of sun and temps in the low 20's. Winds will again get a little stronger Sunday though again, well short of we've experienced in recent days. With all the talk of wind, this is a good chance to point folks to the NWS BTV website for summit wind forecasts. The folks there do a good job with this product, but they put it in a difficult place to find which I've never understood considering how important they are. If you go to this page NWS BTV Recreation Forecasts and click on the tab that says "Higher Summits ", you get a good 48 hour forecast for summit conditions. You can even click on Mt Ellen on the map and get a site specific forecast and then another link is provided where you can get  hourly forecasts for all kinds of good stuff which is here - Mt Ellen Hourly Forecast.

The middle week of January (13th-17th) is shaping up to be a good one. No snow of any significance for Monday but it's a comfortable day with low winds and temperatures reaching the high 20's. A clipper system with limited moisture will make a slow approach on Tuesday. Snow is likely to begin during the ski day with very little accumulation. As winds turn toward the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, a more substantial accumulation of 3 or more inches appears likely. Blustery conditions make a return Wednesday and then more snow is possible for Thursday as a Vermont appears lined up for a decent warm advection light snow setup. Will any of that mild air make a temporary reach at northern Vermont and bring temperatures above freezing for Friday Jan 17 or Saturday the 18th? Certainly not impossible though the most important goal would be to avoid the rain or mixed precipitation and for now, this appears likely.

What a weather map we might be looking at for the MLK holiday. It's a weekend that has a history of producing significant storms and one is again possible thanks to a strong buildup of arctic cold to our north coinciding with an advance of milder air trying to work its way up the east coast. Tough to see what kind of specific outcome we might see but most of the simulations I've seen in recent days indicate the presence of organized storminess. What appears more likely is a very strong southward push of arctic cold in the middle of the country that could make headlines because of its intensity. New England is very likely to get a piece of this extreme cold either on or just after MLK day. Interestingly, the recent cold weather has the Great Lakes aggregate water temperatures and ice cover at their highest levels since 2019 which means any arctic cold is less moderated as it advances on the east coast. The Hudson Bay meanwhile, is finally close to freezing and is likely to do so within about a week. The 2nd slowest freeze since this data has been recorded.

 

No big storm for the weekend, yet Saturday is still a winner with both light snow and lighter wind

Factoring in the winds, northern Vermont was quite easily the coldest place in the entire country on Wednesday with most places well below 10 on actual temperature. We beat northern Maine which remains stuck in a warm eddy, we beat northern Minnesota, which doesn't have the wind and Jackson, WY which is currently 1 degree above, is expected to warm to about 15 degrees before the end of the day. Hand us a trophy ! Snow was a bit lighter than Tuesday but is expected to increase in the intensity and accumulate another 3-6 inches in the period between Wednesday night and midnight Friday. With the wind which is expected to continue through much of the ski day Friday before subsiding, it will be difficult to get a sense of the accumulation. Snow that has already fallen will blow around and snow that is falling will blow around and the upper mountains will have a lot of drifting, but if you've braved the elements up there already, I am sure it's common knowledge.

The snow is expected to taper to flurries on Friday and the sun should make some appearances, helping to boost temperatures closer to the 20 degree mark. As I mentioned, we will have to contend with the wind for one more day so dress accordingly. Saturday, has two things going for us. 1) A break from the strong winds 2) Some snowfall. The latter comes from a decaying clipper system still capable of delivering a 2-5 inch snowfall, most of which will occur during the ski day.The sun should make another limited appearance on Sunday and both days should feature daytime temperatures in the lower 20's on the mountain. 

The devastating fires in the Los Angeles area are a result of a brutal Santa Ana wind, a common byproduct of a pattern that favors cold weather in eastern North America and dry, stable weather across the west. The persistently negative EPO is the more important cause and there continues to be some evidence of more split flow after January 18th which would increases the chances of organized storminess after that. Until then, which constitutes the next 10 days, it will continue to be smaller disturbances and clipper systems that bring us snowfall. It appears we get a decent dose of the fluffy clipper-type snow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and perhaps some warm-advection related snowfall later in the week. The warm advection type snow precedes a temporary push of milder air which could be part of a more major storm system for MLK weekend or not. The colder pattern does support a strong outbreak of arctic cold hitting around MLK day which could be the strongest of the season so far. Still a terrific January pattern overall.

Intermittent light snow will pile up over a 3 day period ending Thursday, all part of a pattern expected to remain chilly and favorable through MLK Day

 Wind finally subsided for Monday and this allowed temperatures to within a few degrees of zero. After some sunshine to start the week, both clouds and wind are expected to return. We are dealing with a decent outbreak of widespread cold across the eastern United States and Vermont will see its proper dose. Readings on the mountain will struggle to get much above 10 degrees all the way through Thursday. Following a more comfortable wind day Monday, wind chills for the duration of the week will be well below zero. 

The Mid Atlantic snowstorm quickly exits and once it's well clear of the east coast, which it will be Tuesday morning, moisture will drip southward out of Canada and the snow begins to fall. This is an interesting meteorological setup as mentioned in a few previous posts. A broad conglomeration of storminess in the maritimes creates a large zone where moisture is allowed to work its way southward from the narrowing unfrozen section of the Hudson Bay. Now that we are closer to the forecast period in question, I took a glance at those stability parameters and discovered that the lowest boundary layer is actually quite stable. This particular snow setup involves a respectable but elevated area of moisture that will move over the entirety of northern Vermont and remain there over the coming days. The high country is still the most favored area for the highest snow totals, but valley areas will see some as well and we won't see a massive differentiation between snowfall rates on the mountain and in the valley. That being said, snow which should begin before daybreak Tuesday is likely to be rather continuous with a a few inches likely Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I don't expect the snowfall to be especially intense at any given time, it will be generally be light with a few intervals where it won't be snowing. Still, we should see it continue to pile up accompanied by temperatures not far from 10 on the mountain and only a little better than that in valley areas. Wind gusts at the summits are expected to reach 40 again Tuesday and this is likely to continue through Thursday. The snow and the wind are expected to diminish Friday and the appearance of some limited sunshine will help boost temperatures toward the 20 degree mark. I expect 3 day snow totals to be in the 8-12 range though the uniqueness of the situation does increase the risk of a bust. 

The weather map at our mid latitudes might get more active beginning this weekend though we may not want it to be. Sporadic simulations are showing a Feb blizzard of '78 type setup with crippling snow in southern New England. If you follow certain personalities on social media, you may have seen  some of the maps from these cherry-picked models. Most of the models aren't showing the big storm and northern Vermont might prefer this outcome since a big storm to our south might hurt our new snow potential. No such storm keeps the door open for smaller doses of snow from clipper-like systems. The weather map could continue to evolve to a point where interior New England is for the heavy snow this weekend though this appears unlikely. 

Ensembles continue to show a temporary loss in teleconnection support early next week with temporary being the key word since it doesn't appear it will persist long enough to elevate the risk of a thaw or an rain. A ridge in the eastern Pacific is expected to strengthen at the end of next week, extend northward through Alaska while energy in the more tropical Pacific undercuts some of this. It's a terrific setup for persistent sub-freezing January temperatures. I especially love the support from the EPO since I was an admitted skeptic that we might successfully tame that beast for any length of time. One thing I should add about the longer range is that the split flow I just mentioned combined with a slight re centering of the mean trough in North America will mean more storminess after Jan 18. What that all might look like we will have to wait and see. The pieces are set up on the board the way we would want them ! 

Winter tightens its grip on Vermont over the next week with more wind and several days featuring at least light snowfall

Sub-freezing temperatures have been plastered all over our faces by ferocious winds over the past two days and similar to what was mentioned in the last update there's more where that came from thanks to storminess that is caught up near the Labrador Sea coastline. The setup brings some intriguing possibilities next week and it's gotten to the point where I am excited to see how and what transpires. 

A disturbance brought some snowfall to the Mid Atlantic states Friday and this helped clear the skies over northern Vermont though it was a very windy bluebird day. Weekend weather also looks windy, but not as much as the past two days. We make up for this with more clouds and colder temperatures with readings that should hover in the low to middle teens on the mountain and closer to 20 in valley areas. Limited moisture and the favorable flow should allow for some snowfall throughout both days and late Saturday into Saturday night appears to be the favored time slot for a 2-5 inch accumulation, mainly across the high country. We should expect some clearing late Sunday though I am not sure it arrives before the end of the ski day. 

The storm system on Monday appears to be a well organized system and has some moisture. Unfortunately, in this setup, its doinking off the right upright and out into the ocean, an unusual outcome and one that results from the closed area of storminess downstream that will prevent any northward turn. We will get another dose of sunshine out of the whole deal with good visibility on Monday. We can still expect some wind Monday though the subsequent days will be gustier.

Once the Washignton DC snow producing system departs, the door will come open and I hope the party begins. The storminess is expected to linger in eastern Canada allowing the relative warmth there to linger, clashing with much colder air over the frozen western portion of the Hudson Bay. A disorganized conveyor of moisture and snowfall is predicted to develop from all this and begin to drip into southern Quebec and northern New England as early as Tuesday. We have the perfect flow setup for this with north to northwest winds not only blowing this moisture toward us, but also enhancing the impact because of the Lake Champlain thermals. As we get closer, stability parameters might help us predict how heavy the snowfall could become though its quite possible its just moisture from the stalled out storm and not related to stability. Regardless, continuous snow is possible for Tuesday through Thursday and a period of heavier snow is being hinted at Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect strong winds and temperatures not far from 10 degrees while this is all going on which is less treacherous snow to drive in, but could really hamper visibility as wind blows the cold smoke all over the roads and highways.

The weather map finally evolves enough to offer a respite from the wind by the weekend of the 11th and 12th. We could see some snowfall from a clipper system if it comes at us in the right way. Mostly however, if will feel a lot more comfortable thanks to the lower wind speed and temperatures potentially 10 degrees warmer. 

Generally favorable setup remains in place through the start of MLK Day but ensembles on Friday are showing a temporary loss in teleconnection support around Jan 13-15 thanks mostly to a surge in AO values. A supportive NAO is helping to keep the upper air signal cool throughout the period and a nearly neutral EPO is expected to turn negative for MLK weekend. It all adds up to a less cold but continued wintry mid January outlook. The big synoptic storm appears elusive for the next 10 days and after that we could see some snowfall potential begin to emerge along those lines.