The end of the mild onslaught nears and the outlook isn't as promising for the rest of March as I'd hoped

 I am not going to throw lipstick on this pig. We are in the midst of a horrible melt-off that isn't done yet. We fought against this warm onslaught valiantly, yet once the southwest winds arrived late on Saturday, followed by the rain, the snowpack in the valley folded like a cheap suit. There were in fact some serious ice jams on the Mad River on Sunday resulting in some minor flooding and even with drier weather and some blue sky, the balmy temperatures continue and more rain is expected in the middle of the week. Remarkably, the Mt Mansfield snow stake is now below average for the first time this season and its certainly possible that it may not totally recover. It is amazing when you compare the damaging warmth right now to the more innocuous mild weather in March of 2024. Statistically, March 2 years ago might go down as a warmer month than the current one, yet the mild weather never got especially excessive for any one period, never featured high winds, high dewpoints or substantial rain and in spite of the steady stream of 40 and even 50-plus days, we had terrain sensitive snow events that continued to add depth on our upper mountains. It all culminated into an an amazing early April snow event just prior to the solar eclipse on April 8th. 

Though I can tell you all about some snow in the forecast and some colder weather, the outlook overall leaves something to be desired and  it will be hard to manufacture the kind of recovery I know some of us were hoping for. You never know about the end of the month and it's always unwise to count out storm potential during this part of the winter season, but the part that is visible looks very up and down.  Low level cooler air is trying to push south Tuesday and will finally reach a good chunk of the state Tuesday night, effectively putting the brakes on the melting though readings are expected to remain above freezing (about 40) throughout Wednesday with clouds and much lower visibility. Rain is also expected to arrive in the middle of the ski day. It's a legitimate storm system tracking up north of the St Lawrence Valley and we are probably fortunate that expectations for rainfall are less than a half an inch. The tricky part of the forecast for Wednesday night into early Thursday is whether the storm can produce another temporary spike in temperatures. If we can avoid that and the wind that  is likely to accompany such a spike, we would limit the additional damage somewhat. Models are split as to whether this happens with some data indicating a spike to 60 degrees early Thursday while the alternative would have readings holding closer to 40. Temps return to more seasonable levels Thursday evening which means below freezing and near 20 for Friday morning. 

Early blue sky Friday will be quickly erased with clouds and snow from a clipper system arriving in the midday or early afternoon hours. This is a halfway decent looking upper air feature and would be a really nice addition to a healthier snowpack.  An old school weather map analysis puts us and northern Vermont, more generally, in to the most favored quadrant for decent snowfall and we should a dose of it with 2-5 inches falling Friday, some very light snow Friday night and then some additional snow showers Saturday, especially as winds turn and become more northwesterly. We should be able to squeeze a partially bluebird out of Sunday with seasonable temperatures and a lesser wind. 

I think the real disappointment has to do with a potential storm early next week. It's got a big jet amplification working for it and it all comes together too far west which is strange considering the record heat currently being expected in California. It's cold enough across interior New England for some mixed precipitation including some sleet and ice (maybe both together) while a big snow event appears unlikely. Rain is possible yet again before a cold front puts an end to it and we turn sharply colder  for the middle of the week. 

It's a changeable weather pattern after that. The cold should carry us through the rest of next week while modifying and the weekend of the spring equinox appears to be relatively seasonable Ensembles confine the strongest dose of mild weather to the middle and southern portions of the North American continent. That said, teleconnections continue to look at least slightly unfavorable extending out through March 25th or so. It's not impossible to envision a snow event in this setup and operational models do show some even though the pattern overall, does not appear especially wintry. 

Warm weather could peak Monday with a return of snow possible late next week

We continue to chip away at the very mild period still looming in our forecast. No, we certainly haven't ridded ourselves of the warmth entirely as I am sure readers already know, yet this update will further confine it to a few days. I continue to like Sunday's weather over Saturday's mostly for the purposes of visibility. I think it will take some work to scour the low clouds and fog away from the region though models do suggest this ultimately happens. Temperatures will spend some time in the 30's in the morning and then rise into the 40's during the afternoon as southwest flow kicks into a higher gear. Fortunately, the rain appears mostly light during the day Saturday and there are a few pockets of freezing or drizzle indicated as part of that colder morning. A batch of heavier rain, of about a quarter inch, is indicated for Saturday night and this should all be out of the way for Sunday. Temperatures are well above freezing on Sunday and this consists of 40's on the mountain and low 50's in valley areas. Visibility should be much better as I mentioned with clouds breaking for some blue sky. 

If you like bluebird warmth, I think Monday is your day. It's the full on torch and not too much in the way of cloudiness is indicated. Readings are likely to reach 60 in valley areas, 50 on the mountain and the coldest place in all of New England is probably Cape Cod just become of their proximity to marine air. Tuesday appears to be a cloudier version of Monday with much of the day featuring the same mild breeze. A storm containing a boatload of moisture begins to organize and approach the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and we continue to see a slow trend consisting of some cooling air enveloping the northern most parts of interior New England. If you're hoping to get on the colder side of this storm, we need the trend to continue since the storm is shown to track right up the St Lawrence River on Wednesday as of now. The eventual track will have a big impact on temperatures Wednesday though the precipitation type still appears most likely wet. Some arctic air appears to be involved in the shift toward colder weather on Thursday and we can introduce some snow into the forecast late on Friday for Saturday. 

We have about 6 days of wintry weather in association with this colder period with the hemispheric jet stream view only providing us tepid support and I should note the AO never goes negative. The latter in particular would argue for only a temporary period of below normal temperatures. The big question relates to a potential storm and jet stream amplification around Sunday the 15th (still 9 days away). This could become a big snow producer, might end up producing mixed precipitation or could might end producing very little at all. It appears more certain that we get a round of intense cold around March 17th and 18th and then the cold relents thanks to a lack of the aforementioned teleconnection support. 

 

 

The milder weather still looms (weekend & early next week) yet the overall outlook continues to look colder both in the shorter and longer range

Spent some time over the past few updates describing the intensity of the incoming warmth We still have that warmth and it continues to look pretty intense especially during the early to middle part of next week. The warm weather appears to be a 4-5 day problem if you see it from that vantage point. Perhaps you're looking forward to some corn snow and with little doubt we have plenty of that coming. If you want a colder weather trend however we have that also. Some of that for the end of the current week and more of that following the warmth after March 11th. 

It's not hard for blue sky in March to send temperatures soaring. This certainly was the case for Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, we have very little of that; in fact,  the low level push of chill continues to defy the weather pattern and is even likely to produce a wintry result if you can believe it. Temperatures will start on the milder side Thursday, essentially near the freezing mark. The push of low level cold looks both stronger and arrives earlier however and will effectively hold readings in place through much of the day. Lots of precipitation on the east coast weather map for Thursday, yet all of it will remain south of us through the ski day and a chunk of the evening. Gradually however, the shield of moisture will push north and it's likely snow that falls for a time during the overnight, changing to some sleet or freezing rain before dawn Friday. Some preliminary high resolution output shows some significant icing in southern and even central Vermont Thursday night so please make note of that. In our case, staying on the north edge of the precipitation shield will hopefully keep us out of most of the ice and in a light snow situation that ends before dawn and is capable of yielding a small accumulation of less than 3 inches. It's worth keeping an eye on this given the trends. Snow would have seemed impossible in this weather pattern 5-7 days ago look what's evolving. 

I mentioned in the last update that the low level clouds (low visibility) and chill is likely to linger through  early Saturday and eventually get flushed out later Saturday, letting the March mild push wash over the region from southwest to northeast. A good part of Saturday's ski day could feature readings in the 30's until the very end, where the push of warmth arrives. Showers or periods of lighter rain are possible throughout the day. Sunday appears dry with both blue ski possible and better visibility likely. It's a cold front that pushes the weather out, but it's the kind of front that will actually allow daytime temperatures to be milder. Sunday appears to be 40-plus on the mountain and maybe 50-plus in valley areas. 

The warmth  is expected to intensify on Monday with any sunshine pushing readings to near 60 in valley areas and 50's on the mountain. The upper level pattern and some model output would suggest the warmest day to be Wednesday with the threat of both wind and rain accompanying the mild weather. There are more hints today that we could avoid such an outcome with a weather system tracking close enough to prevent the warmest of scenarios. If I had to guess on the eventual outcome, I would say that 3 days are 50-plus on the mountain and one is close to 60. Certainly it appears very difficult to avoid the rainfall, some of which happens on the aforementioned Saturday and more is likely for the middle of next week. 

And then it's colder and more wintry again. The EPO is shown to weaken and that's accompanied by the development of more blocking  over the northeastern Eurasian continent. The weather pattern doesn't appear capable of sustaining this cold for the duration of March. It does look like it could be particularly intense over a period of 5 days and could even produce yet another mid-March winter storm much like we've had on so many other winters this century. It also could evolve some rather serious arctic chill so don't put the winter coats and extra layers away just yet. 

 

Parts of the forecast period look colder today, though the expectation for lots of early March warmth remains

In spite of the warm weather headed in our direction, Monday morning's 10 below ranks as one of the colder mornings of the season, even as strong March sunshine brings temperatures back into the teens. There's an end in sight to the mild weather and a section of the forecast period doesn't appear as warm though it doesn't change the overall theme of the update. We also still have snow lined up for Tuesday evening which I get to talk about first. 

I love a cold bluebird day and Monday is certainly one of the better ones of the year given the relatively calm winds. These conditions will persist through early Tuesday with temperatures beginning the day around zero along with more sunshine. The thermometer is expected to rise quickly Tuesday and may eclipse the freezing mark briefly even as clouds increase later in the ski day. The snow is expected to begin around 6 pm, timed perfectly with the onset of darkness. Temperatures profiles suggest that the falling snow occurs with readings in the high 20's with accumulations in the 3-5 inch range. The snow is over before dawn and there could be some freezing drizzle very early Wednesday. The clouds on Wednesday are expected to gradually break for some blue sky with the thermometer warming to near 40 by the end of the day. Skiers looking for the driest snow should certainly venture out early with the warm weather later in the day expected to impact most of the mountain.

Thursday appears like a dry day with clouds returning. It appears as if temperatures fall back under the freezing mark in the morning and then rise well above that during the day. Model guidance would suggest an afternoon high close to 40 though it appears to me as if we could exceed that. Friday appears to be a different story entirely and a day that certainly appears different then a few days ago. A low level push of cold arrives from Canada and I would expect this to be strong enough to keep temperatures closer to the freezing mark through much of the day on the mountain. Model consensus would suggest the heaviest precipitation stays to our south with light rain or light freezing rain most likely for a period in central and northern Vermont. In spite of the large warm weather ridge parked over the east coast in this time frame, the low level chill appears formidable enough to remain in place through much of Saturday, keeping it in the 30's for a time with clouds and low visibility. The push of warm air might finally win out very late in the ski day Saturday and this could be accompanied by some rainfall. Sunday continues to appear like a torch with temperatures surging into the 50's. Though clouds could break for some sunshine, the chance for showers continues. 

Sunday's 50-plus temperatures is the first of what we expect will be a few days with very excessive March warmth. Each of the next three days of the week (at least) are likely to see readings in the 50's with and 1-2 days could exceed 60. The middle part of next week has an elevated risk where, higher winds, very warm temperatures and rain spur a rapid melt off. Still some time to alter this evolution and I am aware of some events on the mountain we would certainly like to keep some snow around for. Ensembles have come around to the idea of a more favorable winter weather jet stream picture for the middle of the month. We don't totally calm some of the anger coming out of the Pacific, but we do get pretty neutral while operational models continue to show the return of some colder air prior to the weekend of March 14th and 15th.   

 

 

Very warm pattern still headed our way after some snowfall late Tuesday

Sunshine is allowing temperatures to eclipse expectations for Saturday. The southwesterly flow almost always brings in the mild air and the blue skies just make that daytime mixing process more efficient. It does not change expectations for the incoming arctic air however which arrives Saturday evening and will make Sunday a blustery and cold start to March. Readings will hover in the low teens with clouds and a period of light snowfall in the morning. We had moment when yesterday when I thought this snowfall could produce a few inches, but models are back in the dusting to an inch camp before skies clear late Sunday setting up for a subzero night. 

Monday's temps are much warmer though its a fantastic bluebird day. One of those will you will have a hard time finding any cloud and with low wind, a 15 degree temperatures doesn't feel that bad after a 5 below start.  The clear skies are indicated to persist for early Tuesday and this allows for another cold near zero morning before readings quickly recover toward the freezing mark with increasing clouds. Those clouds will bring our overrunning snowfall that I was hoping for. It begins Tuesday evening and it generally looked like a 3-6 inch snow falling over the course of about 6 hours or so. The European model has a little more punch to this system though as of early Saturday and would suggest we could squeeze more than 5 out of this storm prior to Wednesday's ski day. It does not look a particularly cold storm and we aren't far from the wintry mix. That said we should retain enough residual cold to keep readings just under 30 while the snow is falling on the mountain. The snow could be on the wetter side in the valley. 

The weather pattern still suggests the massive onslaught of warmer weather begins Wednesday. Models are are little slower translating this warmth to surface warmth at least this week.  Wednesday is still a mild day with readings rising into the 40's following the snowfall and Friday could see the thermometer advance toward 50 before some residual low level chill from Canada arrives later in the day. Rain or even some areas of freezing rain are then possible Friday ahead of what will be a very mild first full weekend of March.  Most of the wet weather appears lined up for Friday though it still looks a little showery over the weekend. We will have to get some more clarity on that since spring skiing is obviously more enjoyable without the rain. High temperatures both weekend days appear as if they could make a run at 50. 

The early part of the next week appears even warmer right now with one or perhaps two 60 degree days in there. Individual operational models suggest some chill returning late in the week, but ensembles maintain a definitive warm signal through the forecast period for now after the arctic blast expected for Sunday and Monday.  

 

Warm pattern looking intense beginning March 5th.

 It's been a season of mostly positive updates and a lot of upside surprises. I don't recall having to post a blog update quite like this one in quite a while. The EPO, a trusted ally for much of the season, turned on us a few week ago. We got a respite that timed itself almost perfectly with the blizzard that impacted southern New England earlier this week, but as we head into March, it's expected to move the wrong direction again and in a big way. We've fought off these head winds quite valiantly so far and will continue to so for a few more days and then the dam breaks around March 5. 

Friday's weather, at least the rain, clouds and low visibility, is now expected to be so far south, that the entirety of New England gets the bluebird special to finish the work week. This one comes with temperatures that almost exactly normal and that includes a cold morning of around 10 degrees and a pleasant afternoon of around 30 degrees. Expect more clouds for Saturday with a mild southwesterly breeze developing capable of sending the thermometer above 40-degrees near the base. Models do indicate some mixed precipitation during the day. It's both brief and relatively light with the precip type highly dependent on elevation. 

It's a very impressive shot of arctic air coming in early Sunday and gusty northwest winds. A dusting of snow is likely to accompany the push of colder weather while much of the actual ski day actually experiences blue skies, those winds I mentioned and temperatures holding in the high teens. The clearing skies sets us up for a bitterly cold Sunday night and perhaps the last subzero morning of the season. Certainly it's the coldest pairing of days we will see in March with Monday's temperatures also remaining in the teens albeit with less wind. 

Our chances for significant snow hinge on what is possible in association with the milder push of air that will begin on Tuesday. Can we establish an overrunning surface worthy of some steady snowfall ? Where is the most likely spot for any snowfall ? How much can actually fall ? These are all questions models are wrestling with as it relates to the weather on Tuesday, March 3rd. As of now, the consensus indication would not suggest any more than a few inches. 

The EPO is expected to surge toward a positive 2 and arctic air is indicated to go into major retreat mode beginning around March 3rd and 4th. It's an adverse teleconnection situation and the long wave jet stream set up looks even worse. Several blow torch days are indicated on multiple forecast models between March 5th and 13th. The setup capable appears capable of producing temperatures well above 50 and maybe even 60. The hard-earned cold weather feedbacks will need to work overtime to mitigate the impacts of this pattern were it to verify. I like the corn horn days though I would prefer a smaller dose this early. 

 

 

 

 

Cold weather fighting off the head winds impressively and should continue to mostly do so for another 10 days

 Conditions are close to what you would find in a hurricane out on Nantucket Monday morning The high winds and low visibility come with snowfall this time. The Cape and Islands region miss out on a lot of snowfall that interior areas of New England get and then once in a  while they just get hammered and no one else can compete. Quite a place for weather all you can do is tip your hat for enduring an epic blizzard. 

 Snow from this storm will mostly miss northern Vermont and the weather impacts are confined to just a day of cloudiness and an uptick in wind speed. Gusty winds and occasional snow flurries are expected to continue into Monday night and early Tuesday and then clouds may break for some afternoon sunshine or a bit of blue sky. We have the positive EPO working against us and in spite of that, we have both winter weather and a surprising amount of cold air in the outlook over the next 10 days. Consistent with tradition in late winter, each day is likely going to feature something a little different thanks to rapidly changing weather maps from one day to the next. 

 A clipper system is expected to bring some accumulating snow in our direction for the ski day Wednesday. The snow is actually expected to arrive close to daybreak Wednesday after a chilly night with single digit temperatures. The weather system has limited moisture and likely results in a 2-4 inch snow. It also accompanies a milder push of air though much of that air won't make it to interior New England. A light accumulation of additional snow is possible prior to the ski day on Thursday before clouds break for some sunshine and temperatures make a run at, but don't exceed, the freezing mark. 

There are a couple of surprising items in this update. The first relates to a stronger storm and area of moisture that is expected to impact the northeast Thursday into early Friday. I can't believe how far south this system has trended on the forecast models given this jet stream. Most of it is currently indicated to miss Vermont and I was more worried about ice with this potential system a few days ago. It would take another late northward shift to put snow from this storm back in play for us and we've certainly and substantially reduced the risk for any rain or ice prior to the upcoming weekend. Friday is chilly with temperatures holding in the 20's and then on Saturday, spring makes an early appearance. Some of the forecast guidance suggests near 40 degree temperatures on the last day of February, but with a few hours of sun and a healthy southwest wind, we could certainly bring readings closer to 50 at the base which would mean a blowing of the corn horn. A few more days can further clarify if that can happen.

The 2nd surprise relates to the buildup of cold in Canada in the face of our angry Pacific jet stream. With the help of some blocking in northeast Eurasia, an impressive area of arctic cold will build across Canada and bring the mild weather on Saturday to a quick end. It's not the coldest weather of the year by any stretch, yet it's certainly colder than what I though was possible in this pattern. Readings might start a bit on the milder side early Sunday and then dramatically drop as the day progresses and that turn to colder weather to start March will certainly be accompanied by wind and quite possibly by snow as well. The bigger question relates to whether that area of cold arriving Sunday can serve as a foundation for a snowfall as we move into the first full week of March. It does not appear like a cold pattern at jet stream level and yet Monday will start with subzero temperatures and then any subsequent push of milder air, increases the risk of snowfall. The longer range indicates an even milder jet stream thanks to an even angrier Pacific. Right now, it appears to be a tougher ask to overcome this setup with arctic air following March 5th or 6th and yet this is not a year to rule out more surprises.