Cold weather fighting off the head winds impressively and should continue to mostly do so for another 10 days

 Conditions are close to what you would find in a hurricane out on Nantucket Monday morning The high winds and low visibility come with snowfall this time. The Cape and Islands region miss out on a lot of snowfall that interior areas of New England get and then once in a  while they just get hammered and no one else can compete. Quite a place for weather all you can do is tip your hat for enduring an epic blizzard. 

 Snow from this storm will mostly miss northern Vermont and the weather impacts are confined to just a day of cloudiness and an uptick in wind speed. Gusty winds and occasional snow flurries are expected to continue into Monday night and early Tuesday and then clouds may break for some afternoon sunshine or a bit of blue sky. We have the positive EPO working against us and in spite of that, we have both winter weather and a surprising amount of cold air in the outlook over the next 10 days. Consistent with tradition in late winter, each day is likely going to feature something a little different thanks to rapidly changing weather maps from one day to the next. 

 A clipper system is expected to bring some accumulating snow in our direction for the ski day Wednesday. The snow is actually expected to arrive close to daybreak Wednesday after a chilly night with single digit temperatures. The weather system has limited moisture and likely results in a 2-4 inch snow. It also accompanies a milder push of air though much of that air won't make it to interior New England. A light accumulation of additional snow is possible prior to the ski day on Thursday before clouds break for some sunshine and temperatures make a run at, but don't exceed, the freezing mark. 

There are a couple of surprising items in this update. The first relates to a stronger storm and area of moisture that is expected to impact the northeast Thursday into early Friday. I can't believe how far south this system has trended on the forecast models given this jet stream. Most of it is currently indicated to miss Vermont and I was more worried about ice with this potential system a few days ago. It would take another late northward shift to put snow from this storm back in play for us and we've certainly and substantially reduced the risk for any rain or ice prior to the upcoming weekend. Friday is chilly with temperatures holding in the 20's and then on Saturday, spring makes an early appearance. Some of the forecast guidance suggests near 40 degree temperatures on the last day of February, but with a few hours of sun and a healthy southwest wind, we could certainly bring readings closer to 50 at the base which would mean a blowing of the corn horn. A few more days can further clarify if that can happen.

The 2nd surprise relates to the buildup of cold in Canada in the face of our angry Pacific jet stream. With the help of some blocking in northeast Eurasia, an impressive area of arctic cold will build across Canada and bring the mild weather on Saturday to a quick end. It's not the coldest weather of the year by any stretch, yet it's certainly colder than what I though was possible in this pattern. Readings might start a bit on the milder side early Sunday and then dramatically drop as the day progresses and that turn to colder weather to start March will certainly be accompanied by wind and quite possibly by snow as well. The bigger question relates to whether that area of cold arriving Sunday can serve as a foundation for a snowfall as we move into the first full week of March. It does not appear like a cold pattern at jet stream level and yet Monday will start with subzero temperatures and then any subsequent push of milder air, increases the risk of snowfall. The longer range indicates an even milder jet stream thanks to an even angrier Pacific. Right now, it appears to be a tougher ask to overcome this setup with arctic air following March 5th or 6th and yet this is not a year to rule out more surprises. 

Massive east coast storm brings blizzard conditions to the coast and may bring a little snow and some wind to our area of Vermont Monday

Just some clouds and occasional light snow for your powdery Saturday. If you've been a weekend warrior and braved some of the bitter cold this year, the temperatures Saturday, which may get close to 30 at the base, will feel quite balmy. Lots of talk about the weather in the northeast for the end of the weekend even if the worst of it misses northern Vermont 

The very maligned American GFS model has taken a beating this year from weather enthusiasts. It's been wrong a lot and without the guidance from other simulations, would have led forecasters very astray many times. There's now a blizzard expected to hit southern New England late Sunday into Monday, an especially crippling event for the Cape and Islands region extending westward to Connecticut and New York City. The GFS has consistently showed this event while other models have been downplaying. It's not likely to materialize exactly as the GFS has suggested, but eventual solution is likely going to be blend of several models, underscoring the importance of taking everything into account and not simply dismissing data because of a batting slump. Northern Vermont will actually squeeze some sunshine and a relatively mild Sunday out of this weather situation. As the area of low pressure is taking shape along the Carolina coast, precipitation and even the clouds will be south and west of us leaving our mountains with a chilly morning and temperatures that will likely climb just above the freezing mark in the afternoon. There's a lot of wind expected with this storm, though Sunday in northern Vermont should remain relatively calm. 

Even if some of the forecast models remain somewhat unaligned, it's a classic bombs away situation for the northeast coastline in a very memorable kind of way. Some of the higher resolution output has our upcoming nor'easter strengthening to about 965 mb south of the Cape and Islands and that's certainly enough to create blizzard-like conditions and increase the chances for power outages. Northern Vermont has appeared out of the way from this storm, but one can never underestimate the northward reach of these monster systems. We know clouds and blustery conditions will certainly get at us Monday and I think its more likely we see a period of snow during the day as well. We would get a fringe benefit type of accumulation in the 1-4 inch range and just watch for some critical last second changes. The worst kind of travel conditions can be expected in eastern Mass for Monday. Wind with heavy snow and near freezing temperatures are some of the worst winter storm conditions to drive in. Any snow will certainly be over in Vermont by Monday evening and should wind down in eastern Mass after 8 PM Monday. 

We can expect some chilly temperatures to go along with the strong winds (and any snowfall for Monday). Readings are likely to hover in the high teens on the mountain. Clouds are then expected to break for a little sunshine on Tuesday though strong winds are expected to remain to go along with even colder temperatures on the mountain between 10-15. The next push of milder air moves in our direction for Wednesday but guess what, it's another fail. Just more clouds and another period of snowfall and another likely accumulation with temperatures holding in the 20's. It appears closer to the freezing mark for Thursday and Friday and yet the trajectory of the another weather system is likely going to keep readings from getting too mild. Snow or a wintry mix seems to be the most likely outcome early Friday after a mostly dry Thursday. 

The weekend consisting of the last day of February and the first day of March appears mild. Even with the adverse EPO however, models are building up an impressive area of arctic air in Canada and some of that is expected to reach New England in early March. Enough I think to keep the winter weather coming. Some milder March-like temperatures are then possible later that week. 

 

 

Late Friday snow looks better with 8-12 expected during the overnight and a little more early Saturday

Thursday turned into an outstanding bluebird day with comfortable temperatures and low wind. Even with readings challenging the freezing mark, the low dewpoints ensure that the snowpack remains mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, the pattern out west has finally allowed for some much needed snowfall and it's been widespread enough to impact multiple states and mountain ranges. Snowfall out west is absolutely vital not only for the water supply but also for electricity generation and  it has to happen now since precipitation in many places gets pretty rare by late spring. Though the pattern has turned, favoring more snow out west and less cold in eastern North America, Vermont is set up for a nice snowfall late on Friday and this update serves to clarify what we can expect. 

The clear skies are expected to continue through at least part of Thursday night allowing temperatures to drop into the low teens. Friday should then consist of some early sunshine before overcast conditions prevail for a good part of the ski day. Our approaching storm appears a little stronger and its certainly quite a beast for folks living within the vicinity of Lake Superior where blizzard conditions have been reported. For us, a decent plume of overunning moisture is headed in our direction and snow should begin within an hour or so of 6 pm Friday. The snow looks heavier and we can expect healthy snowfall rates throughout the evening and well into the overnight. This makes the upcoming Saturday one of the best ski days of the year with 8-12 inches of fresh powder expected by daybreak and perhaps another 2-3 inches before noon Saturday. Flurries could certainly continue into Saturday afternoon, though it primarily appears cloudy with readings in the low 20's on the mountain and northeast winds gusting 10-20 mph. 

A new area of low pressure is expected to form and then strengthen on Sunday eventually moving off the North Carolina coast midday Sunday. This trajectory will keep the snowfall south and west of Vermont on Sunday barring a change. The decaying Great Lakes storm will take up a position in the eastern Great Lakes Sunday and concentrate some light snowfall in that region. Northern New England may actually see some sunshine and this would help boost temperatures from single digit temperatures early in the morning to 30 degrees in the afternoon. The storm will continue to strengthen offshore leaving us with a blustery but seasonable Monday with a mixture of clouds and some limited sun to go along with snow flurries. Tuesday is a slightly colder version of Monday with day time temperatures staying in the teens. Much of the arctic air gets close to New England in this time frame but the core of the cold stays north as it often does with the angrier Pacific jet stream. 

A push of milder air in the middle part of the week could once again fail to deliver a meaningful thaw while possibly bringing us some additional snowfall. The end of next week appears colder with a lower risk of any thaw while seasonable temperatures appear more likely. The first 7-10 days of March continues to appear slightly mild, driven mostly by the lack of high latitude blocking and the positive EPO. The signal is glaring enough to suggest a big melt off however and arctic cold in Canada is indicated to be close enough to keep the door open for some snowfall. 

 

We miss on the first chance for snow on Wednesday while snow late on Friday into Saturday appears more likely

36 hours helped clear the proverbial fog out of the forecast and provide a relatively clear road map to the active weather picture that confronts us over the next 5 days. There's a potential storm to discuss for the end of the upcoming weekend which could push east somewhat innocently over the ocean or eventually become a massive east coast hit in some way. Without the help of a friendly EPO which we've had for much of the season it will be a changeable weather scene in Vermont for the last few days of February and into early March. 

Turns out Wednesday will be a dry day after all.Certainly a lot better than the thaw that had threatened this part of the forecast period for some time. The snow won't be far from us, a narrow corridor falling mostly in the Berkshires and perhaps as far north as extreme southern Vermont. Dry air will win the day in northern Vermont and so much so, that skies are now expected to clear for the latter part of the ski day providing us with a nice clear view of the sunset for Wednesday evening when temperatures are expected to drop to near 10 degrees. The drier and less cloudy trend in the outlook continues through Thursday which is now expected to be mostly bluebird with readings up around 30 degrees on the mountain along with very little wind. Short of a new snowfall, this is an excellent way to avoid the milder temperatures I had been worried about. 

New snowfall is expected before the upcoming weekend. Friday will actually start with a bit of sunshine and temperatures in the teens before clouds overspread all of Vermont and snow begins likely just around the end of the ski day. The system responsible will get a bit stretched out upon its approach with part of the storm trying to reposition in coastal New England, with the original system slowly pushing eastward in the northern Great Lakes region. We should not expect an epic snow event out of this. The initial period should provide us with the heaviest accumulation Friday evening, likely on the order of 3-6 inches. Additional light snow during the day Saturday will certainly help however and bring total storm accumulations over 5 inches though some adjustments to these expectations are likely as we get closer to the event. The mountains should stay safe from any wetter snowfall with readings remaining in the 20's. 

The stretched out nature of this initial storm will turn the Saturday weather map into a rather messy conglomeration of weaker low pressure areas with no real consolidated areas of precipitation. Model consensus or blend of models suggests this to change as the jet stream becomes more amplified on Sunday. A more well defined area of low pressure is expected to develop in southern Virginia, or close to that and potentially detonate as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. The storm could prove to be another big hit for coastal big cities, move out over the Atlantic Ocean with a smaller impact or turn north, as some storms do, and become a hit for interior New England. The former two scenarios would not have us get additional snowfall save for a little lingering snow Saturday night. The weekend is safe from any milder temperatures and so are the first three days of next week through Wednesday, February 25th. Some arctic air is expected to make its way into northern New England in the wake of this storm by late on Monday with most of that ski day getting blustery. As I mentioned, this is a changeable weather pattern with milder temperatures possible late next week though models have yet to get conclusive about any potential push of milder air. 

I expect the first week of March to feature at least some milder weather thanks to the EPO and the bottleneck of cold in  western Canada. Mostly it's because March is typically like that unless you get some help from a very supportive weather pattern. I will say for early March that arctic air is expected to encompass most of western and central Canada through at least March 5th and the warm signal over Vermont is present but pretty weak. It's a setup that would allow for a day or two of milder weather as I mentioned while at the same time include more wintry weather and snowfall. March in Vermont ! 

Not much of thaw this week and snow appears more likely though it's tricky to figure out when most of that falls

Took a day and stayed away from looking at any weather. Come back to some terribly obscured details, little model agreement and a complicated 5-day forecast. The one certainty and more dominant theme relates to another successful defense of our winter weather conditions. More specifically, we avoid all the worst components of the upcoming warm weather push and the uncertainty relates mostly to whether or not it will snow in certain periods this week and upcoming weekend and how much. 

It's just a mostly cloudy sky for the President's Day Monday with a light wind and temperatures on the mountain near 30 degrees. Valley locations will make a successful pass of the freezing mark, but with low dewpoints and lighter wind speeds, the milder weather won't alter snow conditions over the higher terrain. Same goes for Tuesday which should feature more clouds and some light snow showers. The altitude should prove even more important for Tuesday when valley spots could reach the 40-degree barrier. 

Wednesday could have been the day to torch and it won't be. Low level cool air arrives in the nick of time and we situate ourselves on the north side of a temperature boundary that is expected to actually push south as the week progresses.  Some clearing is possible late Tuesday with a bit of blue sky lingering into early Wednesday though its a cloudy week overall and most of Wednesday is expected to be such. The question for late Wednesday into Wednesday night relates to snow and whether it occurs and how much. The original Euro model puts us in great spot for some steady snow late Wednesday, setting us up for a powdery Thursday. The consensus of all model output has shifted the snow and precipitation more generally southward leaving us out of the heaviest snowfall. I'll take the tradeoff since the middle part of the week appears to have no wintry mix or rain in the picture and the possibility for accumulating snow continues. Just going to need another day or day and a half to get some additional clarity on the eventual result. 

Any snow early Thursday would again give way to some temporary clearing late in the day. Overnight temperatures are then allowed to drop to near 10 for early Friday and then its a big conglomeration of weather approaching for the weekend with more model dissension. The OG Euro which continues to hit us pretty good (as I mentioned) late on Wednesday confines all of the weekend action to our south. It's done this on successive runs which is notable. Other simulations including the newer Euro AI has a substantial hit late Friday and some additional snow late Sunday into Monday thanks to a potential coastal bomb. Some tepid support for this comes from the GFS and to a lesser degree the Canadian simulation. With this update getting way too in the weeds with model output, one can get the gist of the weather for next week. Not mild enough for a big thaw and cold enough to support some new snow and still hard to tell when most of that will fall. Hopefully that makes sense ! 

Ironically the weather picture for next week or the last 6 days of February seems to be better defined. Some snow or snow showers along with blustery and chilly conditions for Monday. The cold will then linger into Tuesday before another mild threat has emerged for the end of the week. I'll talk more about the outlook for early March in a subsequent update, but I can preface that with the report that we aren't getting a ton of help from the indices right now and and this is not expected to change through the rest of the month. We can thus get a quick burst of chill and certainly get some snow though its harder to sustain colder weather.  

 

 

 

 

 

Comfortable weekend incoming and less thawing and more potential snowing next week

The heavy snow showers on Wednesday combined with the over-performance snow Tuesday evening has created some of the best skiing of the season and we finally can enjoy it without -20 to -40 degree wind chills. Still chilly for Friday, especially in the morning with temperatures not far from zero. Then the February sunshine goes to work and temperatures recover into the 20's with tolerable wind speeds to go along with some terrific visibility. 

Weekend weather has come better into focus this Thursday so we can drill into some finer details and stop speculating as to unlikely possibilities. Clouds and some snow showers appear likely for early Saturday and a dusting up to 2 inches is our expected outcome. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 20's with gusty yet manageable wind speeds. Those clouds should decrease as the day progresses leading to a colorful sunset and a chilly yet seasonable overnight. Sunday appears outstanding with some sunshine, less wind and temperatures recovering to the high 20's. The storm on Monday appears far enough south to keep its cloud shield away from northern Vermont though some warm advection cloudiness is possible as the day progresses. Readings of near 30 degrees Monday will make it feel almost balmy. 

I rather like the direction  next week appears to be headed right now. We've handed in our resignation on cold weather which is fine, but there are varying forms of mild weather and if it's the kind that produces temperatures near the freezing mark with snow falling, we'd certainly sign up for that. Storminess will get rather consolidated across the Rocky Mountain west early next week with much needed snowfall in the northern Rocky Mountains while arctic cold is bottled up over western Canada. MRG will have that aforementioned 30-degree day on President's Day Monday followed by what I think will be a milder day on Tuesday with readings testing the freezing mark. We haven't done that on the mountain since January 14th and if we do it with dry weather and low dewpoints, it will prove rather inconsequential. More cloudiness should then accompany another mild day on Wednesday as an organized storm system approaches. This system does not appear headed deep into Quebec. It's eventual track might actually end up south of Vermont with a push of colder Canadian air providing support for wintry precipitation. Some rainfall remains probable while the prospects for some substantial snowfall has gained some steam with this low level push of cold appearing more robust. Remember in these types of cold years, with ice covering the Great Lakes aggregate at about 50 percent, threatening thaws can suddenly become substantial snows. The time frame on this would be in the Wednesday/Thursday period  with weather conditions drying out for the last full weekend of February. 

It appears the EPO will hold steady in a slightly positive state for the rest of the month while the big feature will be a high latitude block expected to set up in the extreme northeast portion of the Eurasian continent. This will position cold in North America but mostly western North America while New England mostly stays out of the bitter chill. Late February does have a tendency to produce a mild day even in a general period of relatively seasonable weather so I would expect that in the last week of the month along with some sort of additional snowfall.  

Finally a weekend without extreme cold and wind

Our local NBC affiliate suggested that Lake Champlain was 99 percent frozen as of February 9th and I didn't visually spot any open water from the top of Stark Mountain on the early part of a bluebird Tuesday.  One easy way to calibrate the intensity of a cold year is to simply observe the amount of land mines a skier as to dodge at the bottom of Lower A at MRG. If there are none, such as now, Lake Champlain is probably close to or entirely frozen. Freezing the "Sixth Great Lake" is challenging because of its depth and significant since it eliminates a source of moisture that contributes to our seasonal snowfall. The additional snowfall we are expecting Wednesday and Wednesday night will in fact be held down because of the aforementioned ice. There are positive byproducts to freezing this local body of water however and this will come in handy next week when fending off the milder pushes of air that are currently being forecast. 

Tuesday night snowfall came in successfully and light snowfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night should add 1-3 inches to that total.  Temperatures might even get close to the freezing mark in valley locations though this is not expected on the mountain. Conditions are actually expected to turn blustery again by later Wednesday and continue into early Thursday with daytime temperatures closer to 20. We should get some clearing late on Thursday setting us up for a magnificent bluebird Friday with low wind speeds and temperatures recovering to 20 degrees from a morning low of zero.  

Wind and cold have dominated each of the last 3 weekends at MRG and while the upcoming holiday weekend won't exactly be tropical, it will be a lot more comfortable. We can expect some cold morning temperatures both Saturday and Sunday but reasonable daytime conditions with 20's expected Saturday and near 30 on Sunday. Saturday is a little blustery with some snow showers and Sunday appears more likely to feature some sunshine and less wind. Yes, the potential Monday, President's Day storm continues to show up on model simulations and most of those simulations take this system to our south. There's been enough disagreement on the eventual result to keep watch, but I am not of the belief this system is for us. Never say never in this business unless you really mean it and I haven't yet reached that point. 

For the first time since the middle January, northern Vermont will have to fend off a serious push of milder weather for the middle of the week. Milder than average temperatures should prevail for the entirety of the week, but Monday and Tuesday both appear innocuous. We have what we think will just be some clouds for Monday and temperatures in the high 20's followed by the same for Tuesday with readings crossing the 30-degree mark. Clouds are usually a very prominent part of New England weather when milder air attempts to scour the cold out and next week is no exception. It's the precipitation and wind we worry about in this case and a wintry mix or rain is certainly possible Wednesday, Thursday or both. This does not appear to be a storm destined to track way into Quebec however and I have a funny feeling this isn't over. Would not at all surprise me to see a trend where the cold in Vermont is able to hold it's ground and some type of snow is introduced into the forecast along with the wintry mix. 

Ensembles are indicating the reemergence of some upstream blocking in the jet stream for the final week of February. This will push arctic air back toward North America to some degree during this time frame. In this case, the blocking is forecast to set up over northeast Russia near the East Siberian Sea and will send the cold toward western North America first. The Great Lakes and New England could see a piece of this action and some accompanying winter weather though I would not expect the return of bitterly cold temperatures. The door will still be open for an inland runner type storm in this pattern.