Thursday's storm isn't coming together the way we would have hoped

 So Sunday ended up being a horrible bust. It was a tricky forecast with the track and nature of the storm continuously shifting and in spite of all that, I was still really surprised at the depth of the warm layer that managed to wedge itself over us during the ski day and change precipitation to rain. I was also surprised that the snow wasn't heavier Sunday morning similar to what we saw late Friday. We didn't get the when the opportunity was there for it and the rain which fell even at high elevations Sunday afternoon was not on my bingo card. Stowe did better as was expected in this latitude sensitive storm and this year in particular they have made the most of that extra latitude, procuring about 100 more inches of snow compared to us.  

Bad news can hit you in streaks sometimes with the Thursday weather event not coming together as I would have hoped.  In the meantime, most of Wednesday continues to look sub-freezing on the mountain. Early morning flurries won't amount to much and the rest of the day will feature some clouds, minimal amounts of blue sky and calm winds. The Thursday system is coming at us in a few pieces and the first of those pieces just tracks too far north with credit to the GFS for showing a version of that several days ago. This puts us in the mild southwesterly flow category of the storm early Thursday with temperatures rising into the 40's. There's an area of precipitation associated with that milder push of air that could fall as some snow and then mix if it hits early enough late Wednesday night. I don't think temperature profiles support frozen precipitation by first tracks time Thursday and much of the ski day will just be cloudy with a break in the precipitation. More rain  is expected Thursday evening (mostly after the ski day) and a strong push of cold Thursday night might arrive prior to end of this precipitation changing it to a short period of snow before conditions dry out. Friday is a sub-freezing day on the mountain with clouds breaking for some later day sunshine along with some gusty winds. 

The weekend continues to appear sub-freezing cold and both weekend days should at least some sunshine. Saturday in particular should start out very bluebird with readings near 10 and then clouds and even some flurries or snow showers are possible in the afternoon. Any clouds on Sunday are a result of the warm advection coming in response to the ever shifting weather pattern. Any residual chill Monday morning appears to more quickly get swept away by incoming milder air as a large ridge begins it's extended stay on the east coast. This means we should expect most of the period between the afternoon of March 30th and Sunday April 5th (Easter) to be above freezing and very significantly so on a few days. Operational models are suggesting that marine air keeps clouds around and temperatures in check on a few of the days in this period with some rain in the middle of the week. How much rain or cool marine air do we see is a question yet it's unlikely to alter the above normal temperature forecast. 

 

5-10 inches for Sunday, a little more on Monday and another potential snow for Thursday

This has been a back and forth affair regarding the difficult weather system we've been trying to pin down for Sunday and Monday. It's been a poorly defined storm running along the northern periphery of all the intense warmth currently dominating the central and western United States. At the same time, very cold weather is dominating lesser populated areas of Canada. The Mad River Valley sits at the southern edge this storm's good side and it is very close both in terms of where the heaviest precipitation actually falls and where the snow/sleet line sets up. Some rather heavy snowfall Sunday morning will fall Sunday morning thanks to the robust frontogenetic forcing this storm is endowed with. That snow will become lighter as the day progresses, and may mix with sleet for a short time before tapering off entirely for a time in the evening. Some of the snow will have fallen before many read this update, about 3-6 before first tracks time Sunday and an additional 2-4 after that yielding a 5-10 inch snow total. The Northeast Kingdom is the winning region for this one and I am rather surprised the National Weather Service doesn't have Winter Storm Warnings out in that region. Even over us, it's a pretty high impact event given the nature of the snowfall, which at 30-32 degrees, can make for brutal road conditions and can cause power outages. Over the higher terrain, I think readings will stay in the 20's and keep the snow drier. As Sunday progresses into Sunday night, drier colder air should envelop the region, send temperatures to near 20 on the mountain and then clouds will hold them under 30 through Monday. Those clouds are again expected to produce some additional snow during the day. The trailing storm system is too far south to turn this storm into an epic event for us, but it's strengthening to enhance an area of snowfall across a broad area of interior New England Monday which will be enough for a 1-3 inch additional accumulation. Bluebird weather fans get theirs on Tuesday and it's a nice cold version with near 20 degree temperatures in the morning and then near freezing in the afternoon.  

Snow showers might return to the mountains for Wednesday as a weaker jet impulse comes and goes. The system worth watching approaches late Wednesday into Thursday. It's amazing how much heat models are sending into the central plains in this period while arctic air continues to dominate much of Canada. Oklahoma and Kansas have already seen 90 degree weather this month and will probably get more as this storm exits the Rockies and heads for the Great Lakes. We've got an American model taking this storm pretty far north while both versions of the European are suggesting at least some snowfall for Vermont. I am betting on the latter and will provide more color on this as details emerge. Reinforcing cold is expected to provide a more wintry last weekend in March and this might be enough to keep sub-freezing conditions on the mountain alive through Monday before milder air starts to win out for the middle of the week. There are continued indications of a mild or even warm start to April, at least right now with a rather strong ridge predicted to develop right along the east coast by April 2nd or 3rd. 

Outlook takes the turn for the wintry with a big snow producer very possible for Sunday into Monday

Ever so slowly, winter is creeping back into the forecast picture across Vermont. Lots of weather systems to discuss in this update and it all adds up to a lot of snow potential (and bust potential). It will also need additional updating since many of these fast moving weather features are not being handled with the highest degree of certainty by the various forecast models. Much of all this results from a tale of extremes in both directions. Unrelenting cold has been impacting Alaska for pretty much all of March and continues to do so as of late this week. Much of that cold is forecast to move east over central Canada for the rest of this month. Meanwhile, a spring heat wave of historic proportions has begun over the desert southwest region. The high temperature in Phoenix, AZ is expected to be 105 on Saturday which would tie an all time record high for the month of April. Ski areas in the southern Rocky Mountains will certainly get impacted by this warmth; some of which, will move out into the southern plains next week. The weather systems I mentioned, largely result from this temperature clash which is expected to persist though the weekend of March 27th and 28th. 

For some reason, every season seems to have a favorite day of the week. Like the cycle of impactful storms have a propensity to hit on the same day of the week and this year's favorite day has been both weekend days. We have more snow lined up for late on Friday that would again bring some life for Saturday although this storm is running a little warm for my liking. It's a warm advection feature meaning that the snowfall is a result of the warm air trying to dislodge the existing cold. Eventually it will do that after 3-5 inches of snow fall on the mountain Friday evening and this might allow the precipitation to briefly change to rain or freezing rain. Either way, expect the consistency of the snowfall to be on the wetter side with temperatures at or just below the freezing mark.  Early clouds should give way to blue sky for the ski day on Saturday. Valley areas might get above the freezing mark while areas above 2000 feet should stay to the chilly side of that with falling dewpoints. Readings will then fall toward 20 Saturday night and should be close to that number for early Sunday. 

The Sunday/Monday weather situation is sure getting interesting, yet we don't have all the cattle in the barn as of yet. A broad low pressure conglomeration is expected to move out into the central plains on Sunday. It's an expansive system, fueled by the temperature variations I mentioned though it will not have a lot of moisture, which for us is good since the maturation process will be slower than the last big system we saw. Clouds and snowfall are expected for Sunday and this is expected very early. This moisture, being shown by pretty every weather model, is well out ahead of the developing low pressure area yet is still capable of producing several inches of snow during the ski day Sunday. What happens with the main area of low pressure later Sunday into Monday will ultimately determine whether or not we can make a big snow producing system out of this. We've got about two and a half models (The GFS, GEM and EURO AI) saying this is a real possibility now while the OG Euro is holding back only somewhat. Given the support from some of the ensembles regarding this system. A 1-2 foot storm is starting to look really possible. It's important to mention that the cold air support is certainly there, especially as we get to the Monday part of this storm. So long as the track cooperates, the strong area of arctic cold I mentioned over Canada will  have a chance to make its mark and make this a powdery event on the mountain. It's all about that storm trajectory which appears a lot better as of today. 

Cold weather follows, safely keeping the mountain below the freezing mark through Tuesday. Reinforcing cold then arrives for Wednesday accompanied by a bit of snow followed by a bit of clearing. We then have another weather system lined up for Thursday and so long as we stay on the colder side of that one, and it's close, more accumulating snow is likely. It's a consistent theme that relies on a simple premise. Stay on the cold side of this incoming temperature clash and the snow will fly. In the case of Thursday, much of the country will be very warm and that mild air might be as far north and east as Philadelphia and to a lesser degree NYC where the Phillies nad Mets are scheduled to host baseball home openers. It's actually more certain that the last full weekend of March will be wintry as ensembles seem to be an agreement that we are on the receiving end of a cold jet stream amplification. Early April, once we get there, appears a bit different when a clear warmer signal is shown covering much of the eastern United States. 

Yet another body blow Monday night followed by a few rounds of colder weather and some snow potential which is starting to emerge for the weekend

It's not been a memorable first half of March in northern Vermont (at least for winter weather) and it ends with the worst kind of rain event. After a dreary day with 40-degree rain, Monday night features the real body blow with heavy rain, a big southerly wind gusting as high as 60 mph at the mountain summits, high dewpoints and a spike in temperatures that might take valley locations up to 60 degrees for a brief period. It's all over by Tuesday morning with about an inch of rain in total. Deeper snow would elevate the flood risk considerably, but we've already melted a large percentage  of snow while freeing the rivers of most of the ice. Gusty winds persist through Tuesday with sharply colder and sub-freezing temperatures of about 20 degrees on the mountain. We've got the colder weather with us throughout the rest of the week though new snowfall appears minimal. Wednesday should feature sun and less wind followed by more clouds and a bit of wind for Thursday. Some light snow is likely Thursday as the mild air begins its efforts to push the cold away. Sun could make a limited return for Friday helping temperatures reach the 30's and that's about it. 

The cold weather for the end of this week is only part of what is now a relatively wintry March outlook going forward. The big storm potential has seemed lacking, but has improved a bit in the past few cycles of modles. Widespread mild warmth has most certainly been the story for the lower part of the continent while Alaska is experiencing an unbelievably cold start to March with support coming from northeast Eurasia blocking. Chunks of this cold will get pushed southeast this week and we know about what's coming for the next few days. What we don't know is what happens this weekend as both milder and colder air push east simultaneously and fight for control of New England. The weather system is a hybrid clipper/Pacific type storm moving over the large, expansive western ridge. It get the help of some nice, late jet action and could eventually bomb out over the ocean. Models can't agree on what to do with this weather feature and several different scenarios appear to be on the table. That said, if we can move much of this weather southward by about 100-200 miles as the recent run of the Euro just did, expectations would quickly change. It's not a bad setup at jet stream level and is certainly capable of producing at least some snow even if it's just convective type snow showers.  I would be surprised if we came out of the weekend with little to now snow on the mountains one way or another.

Next week is expected to feature cold weather to start and then gradually moderating temperatures as the week progresses. New England, much the like the winter, appears to be ground zero for the country's cold weather as milder temperatures continue to dominate the central and western parts of the United States. We should be able to spin up another storm late in the week and that happens as the cold is decaying somewhat. Models are split as to whether the cold totally gives it up or can we retain enough to produce an additional winter weather event or snowfall.. I would describe the teleconnection situation as fairly neutralized with help coming from a weakening jet in the Pacific while the AO and NAO indices remain negative. 

Clipper yields 5-10 inches for Friday night and Saturday and then it's another debauchery for Monday and Monday night

 Winter came back finally. The sub-freezing temps will be accompanied by some snowfall for the ski day Saturday all courtesy of a ferocious looking clipper system as far as clipper systems go. I had hoped the snow provide some help as early as Friday, but the start time appears to be closer to 8 PM with some early blue sky giving way to clouds during the day. The area of low pressure with this snow producing feature will track right over northern Vermont early on Saturday and as I mentioned in the last update, the jet dynamics look pretty healthy. The front end thump late Friday evening appears considerably more impressive than it did a few days ago, enough to produce 3-6 inches before first tracks on Saturday. We get some additional love for the ski day Saturday as well. Even as temperatures creep above the freezing mark in valley areas, the situation appears highly convective with snow showers expanding southward as the day progresses and the flow becomes more northwesterly. It being March means the convective cloud tops can get higher and the snowfall from those clouds can be heavier. The heavy snowfall is likely for only a limited window of time in the middle to end of the ski day and that's what will limit those accumulations more than anything else, but 2-4 would be my best guess in addition to the 3-6 Friday night. This yields a total event accumulation of 5-10 inches. Temperatures on the mountain on Saturday could be changeable, rising to 30 early in the day but falling by as much as 10 degrees with gusty winds with the snowfall I mention. Convection can do that in a rather mesmerizing way since it can efficiently transport much colder air aloft down to the surface and do so very quickly. 

We are confronted with a very changeable weather situation for the next few days. Sunday is nothing like Saturday, Monday is nothing like Sunday and on and on through the middle of next week.  Cold weather and blue sky atop the newly fallen snow on Sunday will give way to clouds. Overall though, its a winner with low wind speed and comfortable afternoon temperatures up near the freezing mark. Models do indicate some light snow late on Sunday which appears pretty immaterial considering what follows. Monday, as you might have seen is nothing like Sunday. Wretched visibility in the classic New England soup scenario. The clouds will produce some rain and some areas of freezing rain early in the morning until readings slowly climb above the freezing mark in every location. We had high hopes for the Monday storm at one point in time. The middle of March has produced some of our best storms in recent years, but it won't be this one. After passing over Lake Huron, this area of low pressure will head straight to northern Quebec and it's too strong of a storm to manage an energy transfer to the coast. Temperatures may hang near 40 for a good part of Monday with some occasional light rain and then surge into the 50's with wind for Monday night. This will be accompanied by more rain, some of which will be heavy and will thus wipe out our most recent snow. Rain will be over for early Tuesday as a sharp cold front dries us out and provides some clearing. Expect some snow showers as Tuesday progresses. 

It's another 48 hours of so of sub-freezing temperatures between Tuesday and most of Thursday and then its back to a changeable March weather situation. The outlook doesn't look especially exciting on the ensemble weather map, but I would say I was more encouraged today that we could score an exciting winter weather event even without a pattern that supports sustained cold. Much of the mild weather in the long range appears positioned across the middle of North America while the core of coldest weather becomes concentrated over interior eastern Canada. New England appears to the be area where the air masses clash and it could all come to a head on the weekend of the spring equinox in the form of some kind of storm with some cold weather in its wake. 

The end of the mild onslaught nears and the outlook isn't as promising for the rest of March as I'd hoped

 I am not going to throw lipstick on this pig. We are in the midst of a horrible melt-off that isn't done yet. We fought against this warm onslaught valiantly, yet once the southwest winds arrived late on Saturday, followed by the rain, the snowpack in the valley folded like a cheap suit. There were in fact some serious ice jams on the Mad River on Sunday resulting in some minor flooding and even with drier weather and some blue sky, the balmy temperatures continue and more rain is expected in the middle of the week. Remarkably, the Mt Mansfield snow stake is now below average for the first time this season and its certainly possible that it may not totally recover. It is amazing when you compare the damaging warmth right now to the more innocuous mild weather in March of 2024. Statistically, March 2 years ago might go down as a warmer month than the current one, yet the mild weather never got especially excessive for any one period, never featured high winds, high dewpoints or substantial rain and in spite of the steady stream of 40 and even 50-plus days, we had terrain sensitive snow events that continued to add depth on our upper mountains. It all culminated into an an amazing early April snow event just prior to the solar eclipse on April 8th. 

Though I can tell you all about some snow in the forecast and some colder weather, the outlook overall leaves something to be desired and  it will be hard to manufacture the kind of recovery I know some of us were hoping for. You never know about the end of the month and it's always unwise to count out storm potential during this part of the winter season, but the part that is visible looks very up and down.  Low level cooler air is trying to push south Tuesday and will finally reach a good chunk of the state Tuesday night, effectively putting the brakes on the melting though readings are expected to remain above freezing (about 40) throughout Wednesday with clouds and much lower visibility. Rain is also expected to arrive in the middle of the ski day. It's a legitimate storm system tracking up north of the St Lawrence Valley and we are probably fortunate that expectations for rainfall are less than a half an inch. The tricky part of the forecast for Wednesday night into early Thursday is whether the storm can produce another temporary spike in temperatures. If we can avoid that and the wind that  is likely to accompany such a spike, we would limit the additional damage somewhat. Models are split as to whether this happens with some data indicating a spike to 60 degrees early Thursday while the alternative would have readings holding closer to 40. Temps return to more seasonable levels Thursday evening which means below freezing and near 20 for Friday morning. 

Early blue sky Friday will be quickly erased with clouds and snow from a clipper system arriving in the midday or early afternoon hours. This is a halfway decent looking upper air feature and would be a really nice addition to a healthier snowpack.  An old school weather map analysis puts us and northern Vermont, more generally, in to the most favored quadrant for decent snowfall and we should a dose of it with 2-5 inches falling Friday, some very light snow Friday night and then some additional snow showers Saturday, especially as winds turn and become more northwesterly. We should be able to squeeze a partially bluebird out of Sunday with seasonable temperatures and a lesser wind. 

I think the real disappointment has to do with a potential storm early next week. It's got a big jet amplification working for it and it all comes together too far west which is strange considering the record heat currently being expected in California. It's cold enough across interior New England for some mixed precipitation including some sleet and ice (maybe both together) while a big snow event appears unlikely. Rain is possible yet again before a cold front puts an end to it and we turn sharply colder  for the middle of the week. 

It's a changeable weather pattern after that. The cold should carry us through the rest of next week while modifying and the weekend of the spring equinox appears to be relatively seasonable Ensembles confine the strongest dose of mild weather to the middle and southern portions of the North American continent. That said, teleconnections continue to look at least slightly unfavorable extending out through March 25th or so. It's not impossible to envision a snow event in this setup and operational models do show some even though the pattern overall, does not appear especially wintry. 

Warm weather could peak Monday with a return of snow possible late next week

We continue to chip away at the very mild period still looming in our forecast. No, we certainly haven't ridded ourselves of the warmth entirely as I am sure readers already know, yet this update will further confine it to a few days. I continue to like Sunday's weather over Saturday's mostly for the purposes of visibility. I think it will take some work to scour the low clouds and fog away from the region though models do suggest this ultimately happens. Temperatures will spend some time in the 30's in the morning and then rise into the 40's during the afternoon as southwest flow kicks into a higher gear. Fortunately, the rain appears mostly light during the day Saturday and there are a few pockets of freezing or drizzle indicated as part of that colder morning. A batch of heavier rain, of about a quarter inch, is indicated for Saturday night and this should all be out of the way for Sunday. Temperatures are well above freezing on Sunday and this consists of 40's on the mountain and low 50's in valley areas. Visibility should be much better as I mentioned with clouds breaking for some blue sky. 

If you like bluebird warmth, I think Monday is your day. It's the full on torch and not too much in the way of cloudiness is indicated. Readings are likely to reach 60 in valley areas, 50 on the mountain and the coldest place in all of New England is probably Cape Cod just become of their proximity to marine air. Tuesday appears to be a cloudier version of Monday with much of the day featuring the same mild breeze. A storm containing a boatload of moisture begins to organize and approach the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and we continue to see a slow trend consisting of some cooling air enveloping the northern most parts of interior New England. If you're hoping to get on the colder side of this storm, we need the trend to continue since the storm is shown to track right up the St Lawrence River on Wednesday as of now. The eventual track will have a big impact on temperatures Wednesday though the precipitation type still appears most likely wet. Some arctic air appears to be involved in the shift toward colder weather on Thursday and we can introduce some snow into the forecast late on Friday for Saturday. 

We have about 6 days of wintry weather in association with this colder period with the hemispheric jet stream view only providing us tepid support and I should note the AO never goes negative. The latter in particular would argue for only a temporary period of below normal temperatures. The big question relates to a potential storm and jet stream amplification around Sunday the 15th (still 9 days away). This could become a big snow producer, might end up producing mixed precipitation or could might end producing very little at all. It appears more certain that we get a round of intense cold around March 17th and 18th and then the cold relents thanks to a lack of the aforementioned teleconnection support.