Early season cold expected to take a firm grip over Vermont through at least 12/11 even if snowfall opportunities are on the lighter side

Just a beautiful gentle early winter snow across the entire Mad River Valley on Tuesday. Hard to do better in a typically erratic part of the season and what's even better is that we've got cold locked into place through most of next week. Wednesday is a terrific day to enjoy Tuesday's fallen snow as well. We get some limited sunshine and temperature that mostly land in the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Arctic reinforcements arrive Thursday and with them come snow showers and snow squalls. There's a brief window  Thursday afternoon when a burst of snow is likely to get intense, but the arriving airmass is a stable one and should quiet the convective snow shower activity Thursday evening. Expect 1-3 inches across the high country Thursday with an dusting to an inch down low. Thursday night turns very chilly with readings dropping to near zero Friday morning along with strong northwest winds. On Friday however, winds should diminish some and we will left with a cold but bluebird day more typical of the middle of winter. Readings on the mountain will struggle to reach the teens. 

The weekend outlook does not consist of a ton of new accumulating snow. Saturday will feature clouds, temperatures in the 20's and perhaps a period of light snow with little accumulation. Sunday should feature more sun and it again turns colder with more arctic air entrenching itself over Vermont in preparation for the 2nd full week of the month. This period, the 8th through the 12th of the month looks solidly sub-freezing yet the outlook has turned drier from the vantage point of well-organized weather systems. Ensembles do suggest snowfall from multiple clipper systems right now though that type of outlook can evolve quickly as the period continues to get resolved by models. 

The longer range is interesting since we have a really solid core of very cold early season arctic air over the North American continent. The teleconnections, led by the EPO (weak Pacific jet stream) are supportive and most indications are that they turn from favorable to neutral by around the 10th of the month. Clearly though, there are no indications that there is a mechanism in the jet stream that will force a continental type retreat of arctic air. The core of the cold might shift west for a period after the 10th, perhaps enough to allow for a 1-2 day Vermont thaw after next week though indications are it would be very short-lived. It's quite possible that we see no such thaw at our latitude and simply receive another round of decent snow. Again, relative to a typical early December weather situation, it's hard to take too much of an issue with any of this outlook.  

 

Tuesday snowfall is the best of what appears to be a pattern capable of producing a few chances for snow through December 10

December coming in with a bang across Vermont with a terrific looking pattern featuring plenty of cold air. We can expect most of the first 10 days of the month to stay sub-freezing and this is a major victory considering the adversarial relationship this time of the winter season has with Vermont. Most importantly, we get a chance to add some depth to the healthy base of November snow that has already been provided to us (at least across high elevations). There are several chances for snow with some events clearly looking better than others now. 

A plethora of Saturday college football games featured snowfall and that system will push some snow into Vermont Sunday. Unfortunately, we can't really turn the flow out of that nasty southwesterly direction and those systems typically turn out dry for us. We can expect some on and off light snow and about an inch during the day followed by another inch Sunday night. Cold, early season arctic air then envelops the region for Monday with temperatures hovering in the high teens on the mountain for much of the day. The day should feature some sunshine, especially after the early morning. 

The storm that certainly has my attention approaches on Tuesday. We've had a promising set of model simulations and even 1 or 2 that certainly fit the "eye candy" category. This is a pretty standard variety east coast weather system however with low pressure consolidating near the Virginia tidewater region midday Tuesday and then strengthening as it moves up along the New England coastline. We need a northward shift for this storm to become the 1-2 foot powder producing snowstorm it certainly could become. When the polar jet is involved sometimes that can be more difficult, but considering the early stature of the winter season I would not rule a heavier snow total out at all. As it stands, the safer bet is for a 6-12 inch steady snow beginning around daybreak Tuesday and persisting into the evening. Wednesday appears dry with temperatures making a run into the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

The 2nd surge of arctic air should arrive late on Thurday and bring with it a brief period of snowfall, possibly in the form of some quick hitting squalls. Some early December sunshine is likely for Friday, which should again be a very chilly early winter day with temperatures holding in the teens and wind chills well below zero. As far as snow chances, one storm to watch late on Friday that may or may not stay to our south followed by better storm potential on the 7th and 8th of the month. 

The colder pattern is being anchored by a beautiful high latitude blocking set up over Alaska and now the Bering Sea with a very chill jet stream over the Pacific. This is allowing arctic cold to flood much of Canada with no real mechanism to force it into retreat mode through the first 10 days of December. There are signs on some of the longer range simulations that the cold will shift west after December 10 without totally giving up a presence in eastern North America. Certainly an excellent start to the season. 

Winter 2025-26, already off to a strong start, has some support to be a stellar snow season

Welcome to another incoming weather season powder and Mad River Glen enthusiasts. Never does it cease to amaze me how fast the descent in to winter takes place. It was only about 7 weeks ago when  much of northern New England was finished a multi-week stretch of gentle 70-80 degree warm autumn weather. As of the middle of November, deep snow has enveloped the high country of northern Vermont. Perhaps not enough to call it Snowvember 2, but enough to send the snowpack at the stake at Mt Mansfield soaring to a mid November record. 

 

 

Drought concerns have unfortunately replaced the run of recent flooding events over the past few years. October was a healthy wet month over all of northern Vermont with most areas procuring 125-200 percent of normal rainfall and this has finally begun to ease drought conditions and we can only hope that a season featuring heavy snowfall will end any drought entirely. Temperatures have been up and down throughout the calendar year. The cold start to 2025 gave way to a mild March. Bouts of cool weather in both May and early June gave way to record heat right after the summer solstice. This was then followed by warm weather in July which gave way to a cooler finish to the summer season in late August and early September. The foliage season, from a color standpoint was stunted by the dry weather but the times of first frost/freezes have been relatively normal and the Vermont landscape has the "ready for winter" look. 

Last winter exceeded many preseason expectations and it seems to have also fueled a better set of expectations for the current year. Last year was also one which defied expectations regarding ENSO with much of the season remaining relatively neutral. A weak La Nina has finally developed this summer and although some gradual strengthening has been observed, conditions remain just a shade under what I would consider to be a "moderate" ENSO event. Personally, I consider strong ENSO events of both varieties to have adverse impacts on winter weather for different reasons. Strong Pacific forcing during El Nino events often inhibit the southward progression of arctic air even as they strongly fuel the southern branch of the jet stream which can in turn lead to many east coast snow events. La Nina winter seasons are very often characterized by a strong buildup of cold over Canada but the stronger Nina seasons have been known to feature persistent southeast ridging over the North American continent. This can have the impact of severely limiting the winter below 39 N (let's call this Baltimore, MD) while Vermont repeatedly fends off inland runners that often produce some snow followed by ice and rain. I find the weaker La Nina winters preferable for this very reason. We want a jet stream capable of allowing for a buildup of arctic cold across the northern latitudes of North America, but not one strong enough to entirely eliminate the concept of split flow in the jet stream. We've really seen La Nina go both ways in Vermont and the relationship I was alluding to in this paragraph is hardly perfect. We've had some of our most historic snow seasons during significant La Nina events and also some of the worst seasons. I've also watched over hyped weaker La Nina winters become big disappointments. All we can do is use the data we have and make the best probabilistic-based guess.  

 

 

There's a happy ending in this story. The snowiest winters at MRG and northern Vermont more generally have featured similar ENSO conditions. The two standouts are 1970-1971 and 2000-2001 which are easily top 5 winters in our 76 winter dataset and maybe top 2. 2016-2017 was another winter with a similar La Nina. We had some incredible periods of snow with two extended blowtorch interruptions. 1996-1997 was similar in that regard and featured the "extension" with deep snow well into the middle of spring. The winter's of 1988-89 and 2011-12 serve as a reminder however that this relationship can break down quite easily. Overall though, we are in a good place from the standpoint of ENSO with the chances for a snowy winter more elevated. 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation  (PDO) and state of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific continues to sing a less happy tune. We managed to record some of the highest indices I've ever seen over the summer months, but have managed to bring the values down considerably in the recent months. The situation in the eastern Pacific, closer to Norrth America has been encouraging perhaps suggesting that the index might be ready to flip. What was most encouraging was an area of warm water that seemed to be developing over the Gulf of Alaska though that has been neutralized in recent weeks. It's the central Pacific which seems to be the driving force behind the positive values with very warm water concentrated near the IDL (180 Longitude). In totality, the changes in the eastern Pacific make the story look more encouraging than prior winters but the warmth in the central Pacific can't be neglected. I would imagine it playing a disruptive influence on the jet stream, shortening the duration of colder patterns which is somewhat typical during most La Nina winters. 

SST Anomaly

 The buildup of snow and  ice has managed to proceed in a fairly typical way this autumn. One has to make statements adjusting for the fact that climate change has had a material impact on ice coverage across the arctic regions during the late summer months. With that qualifier in mind, we managed to retain ice well this summer relative to recent prior summers. We then proceeded to begin building ice over the arctic regions on schedule, but in recent weeks, notable anomalous warmth in the arctic has slowed the expansion of ice and we again are challenging record lows for November for coverage. Snowfall has been better and expanded at a relatively normal pace. The coverage of snow across the northern hemisphere was rounded to 18 millions of square km which is average. Recall last  year that we were very slow to freeze the Hudson Bay which still showed some open water even in late January. Interestingly, both years that were uncharacteristically slow were exceptional snow years in Vermont (2011 and 2025). I have entirely no explanation for this and only point it out because it is likely to be another slow year unless the expected cold weather in eastern Canada early this December can expand the ice very rapidly. 

 

 

Our next section tries to "count cards" or assess some of the recent characteristics in the weather pattern as a means of predicting the future. I find there are times it's easier to simply go through this exercise than trying to lean too heavily on some poorly understood variable which can sometimes become the "hot item" in seasonal weather prediction. I've been watching a few things this fall with one being the drought which has had such a broad impact on upstate New York and interior New England. Though the water deficits remain, the weather pattern has turned in accordance with what we might expect in a La Nina season. Interior sections of the northeast are seeing precipitation and should continue to see such in December. I'll preface the next statement with some caution, but it's very encouraging to see eastern North America be a favorite spot for cool weather in a relative sense. The warm almost always outweighs the cold because again, climate change, but the long wave weather pattern can still have propensity to focus the warmth or the cool weather in certain locations and it seems, for the time being that eastern North America is the spot. Last winter turned out to be surprisingly cold also as you might recall, but in the period from March through July, western North America was the cooler part of the continent. By the middle of August, we saw a switch and in spite of a very warm interruption in late September and early October, the cool train has been on the schedule more than the warm one. 

Going to bring one more item to the seasonal forecast discussion and that relates to what make last season so spectacular. Can we pull off the trick again? It's a bit cruel to the snow lovers along the coast, but it proved be decisively important for us the last few seasons. Once again, can we kill the coastal storm ? This relationship has been utterly fascinating to me and certainly educational. Even as widespread cold gripped huge swaths of the eastern United States last year, a coastal storm and big city snow never really materialized. Models advertised several times, the internet hypesters climbed on board a few times and in the end snowfall was very limited. Not the case however across Vermont where every clipper seemed to over-deliver which is a striking contrast to all those winters where it seemed the clipper might be gone for good. The reality is that the clipper and the coastal have a relationship and both can't occupy the same space and there are winters where one is preferred over the other. It's a bit beyond my pay grade as a non-PHD level to do an appropriate analysis as to why this is. My intuition tells me it's a local sea surface temperature thing in the coastal Atlantic but I can't say this with confidence. I can say I am watching closely however. We saw two "Miller-A" style coastal storms in October. Those types of events are usually good for everyone, especially for us, but we didn't see any of that last year. Do we see more of that this year or is it a continuation of the trend we saw last year with limited coastal snow. It will hurt some feelings, but coastal pain is MRG's gain. 

With all that said we can make a forecast for the winter. Though promising sustained cold weather would be a bridge too far, I tend to believe the following winter will more closely resemble 2024-25 than the three mild winters prior to that. We managed to isolate the mild weather last  year to November, March and the Christmas holiday and with November hitting the books as a cold month, we will likely face a milder period either later in December or in early January. Still, with the ENSO under control, the PDO situation a bit adverse and the propensity of the long wave pattern to support relative chill in eastern North America, a winter with closer to normal temperatures appears more probable than an above normal winter.  Regarding snowfall, we can hang our hat on two important items. The first is the weaker La Nina and the snowy winters that have occurred in similar ENSO years such as 1970-71, 2000-2001, 2007-08, 2010-11 and 2016-17, the second is the similar sea surface temperature configuration in the coastal western Atlantic Ocean which would suggest it's another clipper over coastal situation. This latter part of the statement is some hypothesizing on my part, but so is seasonal forecasting as a whole. You expect to get surprised and hope it comes in the right direction. Enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday folks and welcome to another season. 

 

 

 

2024-2025 was a "throwback" winter in many ways and one of the best in years !

If I could describe the way many folks conduct daily banter and conversation especially with our oldest friends, a substantial percentage always seems dedicated to discussing "the way things used to be" and I would imagine that every generation has their own special reverence for how great things were 20, 30 or 40 years ago. I am fascinated with this on a philosophical level, but I am not going down the road when discussing our recent winter season; instead, I would offer that the same applies when it comes to talking about weather. Folks love to talk about the way things used to be with weather and folks that ski at Mad River Glen love to talk about the way our ski seasons used to be. If  you've spent anytime wondering we got a good answer with the weather we just had this past winter. It was very much a throwback winter and I'll go through the reasons why. Though we didn't have the big March that many recent winters have featured, we had a succession of months December, January and February, that were the coldest in 3 years and the season was highlighted by a nearly 2 month period without rain that started on the first day of the year. 

 

 

The colder weather is certainly the more obvious "throwback" part of the recent season. 5 consecutive winters prior to this one have featured mild temperatures, some extremely mild and many months within this 5 year stretch rank as the warmest or top 5 warmest months recorded. This past December, January and February broke from that and absolutely defied many of the preseason expectations and assumptions I made in November. One of the nicest things about doing this weather blog as a fun contribution is that when the weather surprises to the cold/snow side I can spend my time enjoying a bad forecast rather than anything else. In this case, it was the persistence of the cold which came as a huge surprise to me given some of the preseason obstacles. More on that in a bit. 

The 2nd "throwback" aspect of the recent winter was the return of the "clipper". The famous quote attributed to Mark Twain certainly applies here - reports of the clipper's death have been greatly exaggerated. In reality, the clipper and the classic nor'easter have a bit of a rivalry with one seemingly coming at the expense of the other. Since the turn of the century, many winters have been highlighted by memorable nor'easters and while some have delivered big snow to northern Vermont, others have missed the state entirely. In the case of the latter it is a double whammy since a miss on a classic coastal type storm means little or no snow for Vermont with nearby clippers getting zapped of energy and moisture. This winter featured the opposite. It was like pulling teeth to get any coastal storm to form. Many of the storms advertised on model simulations fell apart and as that happened, every clipper found a way to deliver for the northern Green Mountains. It made for a fantastic mid-winter snow season for Mad River Glen and even better for spots like Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak which in the latter case saw 400 inches of snow. 

 

Lower preseason expectations were predicated on the assumption that the PDO index would remain very negative through the winter season. Inter-season noise in the index is difficult to predict, yet there was still good reasons to make that assumption. The autumn values for the PDO rivaled some of the lowest ever recorded dating back over 100 years. Additionally, the previous several winters with similarly amplified negative PDO values have featured rather erratic weather patterns consistent with what you might expect. This past winter did not follow with the recent prior winters however and the PDO which began the winter season by recording a -2.39 index ended with a much closer to neutral -0.49 index. Furthermore, the index rise happened quickly and early so that it likely wasn't a substantial driving force on the weather pattern by January when the index had risen to -0.55. In reality, it's hard to quantify how much of a force the index is playing on the weather, it's merely an educated guess. Regardless, it was refreshing to see more a more neutralized sea surface temperature configuration in the Pacific and adverse upstream forces were not as evident this winter relative to recent prior seasons.

The word "neutral" was in fact a big theme of the recent winter. Expectations for the ENSO (La Nina or El Nino) were high prior to the season. A lot of winter forecasts priced a sizable La Nina into expectations and that broke down rather early; in fact, by the time I did the preseason outlook I had tempered my expectations of such an occurrence. It proved to be a worthy realization since the ENSO more or less remained neutral through the winter though there has been a recent turn toward La Nina the last few weeks and this is worth watching for hurricane season and next winter. La Nina can mean very active hurricane seasons due to a less shearing ambient jet stream environment. A moderate or strong La Nina for the winter can be hit and miss. Even the good winters however are often rudely interrupted by rainy or icy intrusions. 

November began in unspectacular fashion and though certainly ended colder than it started, we didn't have the multiple feet of snow that November 2023 brought to give the season an early boost. Still, we got a storm at the end of the month and began December with some snow on the ground. It was at that point when the season began to show signs that it would diverge both from prevailing expectation and from recent trends. The jet in the Pacific weakened substantially and provided support for colder weather for the first two weeks of the month. Snowfall for the first week of the month accompanied the colder weather and the pattern should have delivered a nice storm on December 11th; instead, the storm took a rather impolite northward turn and brought us a widespread heavy rain for the entirety of the day. The cold rain did not melt off all the snow and the precipitation ended as some snow on the 12th, setting us up for a cold bluebird mid month weekend. The subsequent winter solstice weekend was the best of the month and foreshadowed many winning weekends to come later in the winter. Snowfall late in that week preceded some of the coldest weather of the season, which landed on us on the evening of the solstice and brought temperatures down to 10 below on the 23rd. The days prior to Christmas featured an old fashion New England cold hole. The upper air pattern pointed to warm, but without much wind, temperatures in Vermont were stuck in the 20's during the day while falling to below zero at night. It all made for one of the better Christmas skiing days in several years. Unfortunately, our luck would run out with a wind driven rain on the 30th accompanying near 50-degree temperatures. Much of the exposed snow was wiped out by New Year's Eve and we, as we often have been, had to start from a very minimal base in 2025. 

2025 brought instant improvement and most importantly, some sustained cold weather powered again by a loosened Pacific jet stream and a supportive AO. Following a December that featured daytime temperatures that were more than 6 colder vs 2023,  January delivered the same and was more than 10 colder during the overnights. The intensity became an afterthought verses the sustainability, since readings remained below the freezing mark on the mountain for the entirety of the month and well into February. The snowfall situation, which was pretty dire on New Year's Day, improved immediately beginning with a few inches on the first and even more on the 2nd of the month. The personality of the winter then became more evident as several smaller more clipper-like disturbances consistently overperformed for Mad River Glen while snow lovers in coastal areas of New England grew impatient. It was "the clippper" returning to its former glory that really made January and the ensuing February special and much of the snow fell on the weekends. The first full weekend of 2025 featured single digit temperatures with several inches of cold smoke. More snow on the 7th, 8th and 9th  led us to another spectacular  2nd weekend of the month featuring more comfortable temperatures. By the middle of the month, snow conditions were amazing and we continued to overperform on the smaller events, scoring over a foot of snow on the 14th and 15th of the month. The subsequent weekend was yet another winner with more snow atop the several feet that had already fallen. A widespread outbreak of arctic cold, encompassing a large section of North America managed to dry things out in Vermont starting on MLK day . Accumulating snow didn't return until Sunday, January 26th, though again, it was snow rather than something else and this snow continued to fall for many of the remaining days of what was a fantastic January. 

There were ominous signs on some of the model simulations for early February though cold weather never appeared as if it would totally relinquish its grip on New England and it never really did until very late. Amazingly, much of the month was even better than January. 14 of the first 18 days in February featured accumulating snow. Smaller events continued to deliver and some bigger more organized events also brought snow to interior New England. Much like January, the weekend was the time to ski, and the first and 2nd of the month, though cold, had some fresh snow once again. The morning of February 2nd was the coldest of the season with readings reaching 15 below, but sunshine and calm winds and then evening snow made a quick memory of that. Some of the best days of the season happened in the 4 day period between February 6th and 9th. New snow every day, comfortable mid-winter temperatures and a well established base put an exclamation mark on what was nearly 40 days of sub-freezing temperatures and rain/ice free weather. The 2nd week of the month did, in fact, feature some ice and rain threats. The first came on the 13th, a snow event that turned to a period of sleet though no ice. The 2nd was the most anticipated event of the season and certainly the most organized and strongest winter storm. Cold arctic air settled over the region on the 14th and provided an excellent overrunning surface for the storm coming at us from the west. Arctic air successfully fought off the warm air, especially over northern Vermont where Jay Peak was the big winner. Mad River glen saw heavy, wind driven snow, a few hours of sleet on the afternoon of Sunday February 16th and then more snow for early Monday, February 17th. The sleet compressed snowfall totals though it was still the biggest of the season. The outstanding conditions resulting from that storm continued through a cold ensuing week. The shallow arctic cold did dry conditions out and it was a windy stretch making the wind chill situation a bit challenging. As a whole, February was one of the best months in the past 10-15 years and might have been #1 except for the last week. Forecast models showed a promising situation, but we lost AO support in rather dramatic fashion and mild air enveloped much of the country, even in northern Vermont where the streak of sub-freezing mountain weather finally broke on the 25th. We also saw too different periods of rain although the highest elevations managed to avoid most of it. 

We got one final taste of mid-winter weather on the first weekend of March (the 1st and 2nd) and then the pattern relented and did so quite dramatically. Thanks to the deep base, the warm weather that enveloped the region in March brought some terrific ski days of a different kind. I was trying to keep score at home and counted 7 days where we saw both sunshine and 55-plus temperatures. It doesn't seem like much but that's actually a fantastic number for March. The end of the month featured 2 events with heavy snowfall but you had to get on the mountain early before precipitation changed to ice and rain. We saw a bit of everything in early April. Our coldest temperature of the month was set early on April 2nd and 36 hours later the area was getting doused with heavy rain, thunderstorms and 60-degree temperatures. Some occasional snowfall and chilly temperatures kept deep snow on the mountain through April 16th when a warmer pattern settled over the region. The Mt Mansfield snowstake peaked in late February but made a late March and early April recovery and very nearly set a seasonal high. As of this writing, snowfall at the stake is finally ready to dive under 20 inches. 

My big take away from this recent season was this "throwback" quality to the winter. The core winter months (December, January & February) were all colder than the year prior and the clipper made a return. The interplay between the "clipper" and the "coastal" I find especially fascinating. They can't really seem to coexist. Being that the coastal, were it to be present, easily would assume the role of most dominant weather feature on the weather map, the presence or absence of this feature directly would impact snowfall from the clipper-type systems. Being that the "coastal" was absent this year, the clipper was allowed to deposit snowfall on the Green Mountains and this snowfall, quite routinely, outperformed expectations. Seems like a good academic research project from someone capable of performing such a study (certainly above my pay grade from an intellectual standpoint). My intuition tells me that the absence of coastal storms this year relates to specific sea surface temperature patterns in the coastal Atlantic Ocean waters, but I could be wrong. During the height of our glory, early in February, models were predicting over 30 inches of snow for parts of the New York City region and all but 3 inches failed to materialize. Most of the snow fell over Vermont. 

Thanks again to all the readers for allowing this to continue and a specific thank you for allowing me the liberty of playing all that music. 75 different songs in 75 different years of MRG operations. It was a fun distraction from other stuff and educational. Enjoy the summer ! 

 

 

Lots of wet weather on the way especially this Saturday and into at least early Sunday

One weather system out on the horizon has some of my attention in the first half of April; otherwise, I consider this a fairly typical up and down April weather pattern including a little bit of everything. Always find the first half of April interesting in the showcasing of so many types of extreme and severe weather. New England can still experience major winter storms as we did last year while heat is not uncommon in the south while the transitions between warm and cold can feature varying types of severe weather. Unless a winter storm materializes next week or in some later week, this will likely be my last regular update until I can do a seasonal summary. 

One of those weather transitions is occurring in southern Ontario Wednesday. A few hours of blizzard-like conditions in Toronto then gives way to ice, rain and wind and then much milder weather Thursday. Some of that weather is headed our way though I don't think we can expect too much in the way of snow. A burst Wednesday evening can give us a small accumulation and then its some later evening ice, eventually a bit of rain and for Thursday we have showery and considerably milder weather as southwesterly flow establishes itself. The higher 30-plus dewpoints should help soften the snow if you can avoid the sporadic rain. Lower dewpoints, and more sun can be expected for Friday. Temperatures will be low enough to freeze surfaces Friday morning and readings will hover around 40  on the mountain during the day meaning more variable snow surfaces. 

The weekend, especially Saurday is expected to be pretty wet as yet another storm takes a St Lawrence Valley storm track. Incredible to watch the storm track take on that mode in a general sense beginning in March and this continues with the Saturday rain. Temperatures appear to be above the freezing mark on most sections of the mountain Saturday though not by much. Expect a cold rain with readings in the 30's. More lighter rain is expected for the early part of Sunday before drier weather may begin to envelop the region for the later part of the day. 

Next week will feature the return of winter like temperatures for the first 3 days. There should be an opportunity for some snowfall as well with a good 2-3 stretch of sub-freezing temperatures at the higher elevations (valley areas will reach the 40's in this time frame). Models are signaling the opportunity for a major storm system late in the week into the 2nd weekend in April. The storm, a classic wound up, closed off storm could hug the northeast for multiple days in the best traditions of coastal New England weather in April. The storm would arrive as the aforementioned early week cold weather departs so a major winter storm is unlikely but not impossible. If the storm stays far enough south, the weather could actually turn out to be fairly nice on the weekend of April 12th to 13th. I'll keep an eye out and update this call if needed.

Cold side of an intense temperature boundary produces a snowy Saturday forecast !

 March finally has a chance to make a bit of noise in the 9th inning and it comes as part of a crazy weather setup over New England. By midday on Saturday, New England will be divided by one of the sharpest temperature gradients that one could possibly see in our region. Parts of northern Vermont and certainly northern Maine will see temperatures stuck in the 20's while portions of Connecticut reach the middle 70's. Close to 50 degrees. It's a pretty good bet that some weather will emerge from that kind of setup and we certainly have some to discuss. We haven't yet reached a total certainty on the outcome, but we are getting close and it looks pretty good for snow if you continue to be a fan of that. If you're not a fan of snow so late in the season, there is plenty of non snow in the forecast thereafter as the pattern in the first half of April appears to feature a good bit of everything including mild weather. 

Don't want to forget about the dusting to an inch of snow that we can expect by Friday morning on the mountain. It won't be much, though its part of an important feature since the weak cold front responsible will begin to allow cold early spring arctic air to build across northern New England. The airmass will actually strengthen its grip Friday night and allow temperatures to drop into the 20's even as clouds thicken and snow begins falling by morning. If model simulations are accurate, we can expect a few inches by first tracks time Saturday and if the Euro is telling a true story, the Mad River Glen to Stowe corridor will be in the best zone for heavy snowfall throughout the day and into Saturday evening. What could go wrong ? Plenty. Models aren't in total agreement on this zone of heaviest snowfall and even the Euro has sleet and ice awfully close to us. I would prefer to look later versions of the high resolution data, but some of the available stuff has us mixing with sleet and freezing rain Saturday. All that said, we sit in a good spot and its a pretty narrow zone of "good". 100 miles north and you'll exit the heaviest precip and 200 miles south and it might be 72 degrees with the sun out. Our best case scenario on snow would be close to a foot and I wouldn't bet on that outcome yet though its a reasonable chance (20-30 percent) while 5-10 inches most likely. Less than 5 inches still occupies a decent chunk of the outcome spectrum (maybe another 20-30 percent).

Saturday's winter weather event comes from a weak wave of low pressure and the precipitation is mostly result of that sharp temperature gradient. The main area of low pressure actually comes at us Monday and though cold will put up a decent fight, the track of this system is too far north to support any additional snow. Models continue to be at odds over the actual track and that will impact temperatures some but not precipitation which should be rain in either case. Intense arctic cold will envelop the region by Tuesday and may be accompanied by a bit of snow upon its arrival before we get a decent period of sun from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. More weather is expected to come at us late in the week. The GFS is showing a winter storm while other models depict a much milder scenario. Seems like a mismatch for now. Beyond the later part of next week, ensembles show a bit of milder air and then a move toward cooler weather again. Stay tuned to threads updates for further details on Saturday's winter storm and I'll have at least one more regular update next week detailing any additional winter weather.

Instability snow for later Wednesday and a precipitation battle for the weekend

As I mentioned, it's almost remarkable how March totally fell apart from a standpoint of new snow. We did receive a number of really good corn-horn days, but the month has been startling for its lack of snow. The events that we seem to be earmarked for have fallen apart or under-performed and the pattern has hardly been supportive for too many of those regardless. It's easily been the least snowiest March since the 2015-2016 winter that wasn't, but March of 2016 was hardly a surprise and felt just like a continuation of bad luck. Northern Vermont has had a very productive winter up to now and even the current month, though warm, has seen similar temps to last year which was very snowy by way of comparison. 

This week was suppose to provide a bit of an encore performance and I can't say I am enjoying the song choice as of yet. An enhanced area of instability on Wednesday is expected to situate itself over the state and provide an opportunity for some elevation sensitive snow showers and an accumulation. The day should feature some sun to start and then clouds will enhance and snow should begin, falling at varying intensities. I have to admit some hesitancy because of our struggles this month, but this is undoubtedly the deepest area of instability I have seen over the northern Green Mountains this season. Not atypical to see the best instability late in March with the higher sun angle yet still notable. Most of the ski day features more of a westerly wind over MRG which can still mean snow showers though the heaviest, with that wind direction, usually set up farther north. The wind is expected to shift and become more northwesterly in the evening which may be the time when snow is accumulating the heaviest. I am going to put out a 4-8 inch expectation with 1-3 falling Wednesday afternoon and 3-6 falling Wednesday evening and during the overnight. These events always have bust potential and like I said to open, almost every event this month has under-performed. Snowfall is expected to abate for the ski day Thursday with temperatures creeping just above the freezing mark on the mountain. Lighter snow showers are anticipated for Thursday night thanks to a quick moving disturbance which should clear for the ski day Friday. 

I am certainly not overwhelmed with the pattern for the last few days of March into early April though I will say this. There is a very impressive buildup of cold across southern Canada. Though it isn't expected to have a major impact on U.S. weather generally, it could impact Vermont and it gives us a chance, just a chance, for some sort of decent early spring event. On Saturday, a very warm push of air is pushing northward as this cold tries to anchor itself over Quebec. This gives us the chance for some overrunning snowfall Friday night and even some ice for early Saturday. Cold air is then expected to make another push south as the weekend progresses and another period of very cold rain, ice and some snow is again possible. Models aren't indicating a big event for the early part of next week and it's unlikely, yet not completely out of the question. Just a question the timing of what could be multiple waves of low pressure riding along an intense north to south temperature boundary. I would expect a day or two of wintry like temperatures just after the month flips to April  and then there are indications of another surge of mild weather for the first full weekend of April.