Bitterly cold this weekend with some accompanying snow and then the chill relents

Piggybacking off the last update, I am going to savor the moment on our snowfall. We are in 10th place at the Mt Mansfield snowstake with terrific snow quality and the west has been hurting for most of the season. I had mentioned the snowiest spots in Colorado and Utah as a reference point. Another would be Tahoe, a place that has also struggled this year and one of the highest resorts there, Mt Rose, is roughly even with MRG on seasonal snowfall. The EPO is now expected to a big turn however and spend a good chunk of February in positive territory. We saw this trend commence over the weekend and it has been validated in a decisive way in the subsequent modeling. After an intense blast of cold this weekend, most of the rest of this month won't feature too much arctic cold. We still have some supportive blocking in the Davis Strait region which will help with storm trajectory, but the pattern will certainly allow for sporadic milder days and little extreme cold after Monday morning. 

Residual cold weather following the recent polar vortex drop continues to deliver cold weather for Vermont. As opposed to the wind that we dealt with much of last week, the weather now would be more comparable to western ski areas with the magnificent  blue skies, great visibility, cold overnights and comfortable afternoons. Clouds and light snow return for very early Wednesday with 1-3 inches of fluff around first tracks time. Blue skies are then expected to return later in the day and we should expect that to continue into Thursday with readings again in the teens and a bit more wind than what we had early this week. 

We have a bit more clarity now with weekend weather and there is quite a bit of it. A potent clipper system will drop southeastward and bring with it a very intense and very direct shot of arctic cold. We also have some snowfall though the ski day on Friday appears dry. Friday will actually start out sunny and subzero with temperatures again moderating to the middle teens with increasing cloudiness and tolerable wind speeds. Snow then begins late Friday evening. Limited moisture from the clipper will get enhanced by a very favorable wind off the mostly but not entirely frozen Lake Champlain. I would expect 4-8 inches of windblown powder on Saturday with challenging elements. Temperatures are likely to spend all of Saturday below zero with sustained winds of up to 30 mph with higher gusts. Clouds should break for sunshine on Sunday with temperatures close to -15 in the morning and recovering to about 5 above in the afternoon. 

I've spent a considerable amount of time analyzing the very fluid weather situation next week. We are losing the support of a friendly Pacific jet stream and the coldest core of arctic air will recede northward and westward. There are models suggesting we torch for a day next week though the consensus indication is that winter will hold its ground across Vermont and other portions of northern New England. We have the continued support of downstream blocking and we have the added benefit of some cold feedback mechanisms given the amount of ice covering the Great Lakes aggregate (for one). It's the most since 2015. I've been interested in watching the performance of the European AI model, a close, new relative of the OG European model and though it suggests temperatures get up close to freezing a few times, we get a snowy week out of htis whole deal. I like that scenario obviously, but it's early. We know Monday will remain chilly with temperatures moderating into the teens following the weekend blast of arctic cold. The middle part of next week is then likely to be cloudy with temperatures just below the freezing mark and a good chance for some accumulating snowfall. A more organized storm system is then likely to approach around the beginning of the holiday weekend. We won't have the benefit of arctic cold and I still like our odds that we can score some snow out of whatever happens. 

I've been downplayed the risk of a thaw through the first half of February and I although I think this holds, I lose confidence as we move into the 2nd half of the month. We can't fight an angry Pacific forever and eventually it's likely to get us. We also begin to move temperature climatology in a significantly upward direction for the 2nd half of the month. Nothing wrong with a little warm weather if we can keep the wind and dewpoint temperature down and needless to say, the rain away. 

 

February looking less arctic overall with chances for snow coming late this week and again next week

 Happy 5 PM sunset ! Along with the change in months comes a little more light, about 3 minutes per day if you're keeping score at home. And we're going to get the opportunity to see a few sunsets in this stretch of dry weather which is set to persist a few more days. Our nor'easter is bombing away offshore, having deposited 6 or more inches of unusally skiable powder in eastern North Carolina and leaving us with some Sunday sunshine and temperatures in the teens. Winds will be steady out of the northwest though they could have been considerably worse had the storm been closer to shore. 

Sunday will follow with a terrific bluebird Monday. Calm winds over a deep snow cover will allow temperatures to start well below zero before that sun goes to work and we sniff the 20-degree mark for the first time in a while on the mountain and it's a similar story for Tuesday. The afternoons both days should feel fantastic thanks to lower wind speeds to go along with that sunshine.  

More clouds should return for Wednesday and with the overcast comes some light snow. There's a cold push associated with this snow and this will bring temperatures from the 20-degree mark on Wednesday back into the low teens for Thursday followed by a cold Thursday night. A direct shot of arctic chill is poised to envelop Vermont for another weekend and the storm system bringing this cold is intriguing, a bombing type clipper system. Much of the energy and precipitation may fall south of Vermont though we do seem to be lined up for at least a light snow and possibly more. The snow would arrive for the back half of the ski day Friday as temperatures again recover toward the 20-degree mark, and continue through the overnight. Saturday the 7th looks blustery and frigid with temperatures on the mountain likely near to below zero. Sunday will then feature thoses subzero temps in the morning followed by some recovery during the day.   

The weekend cold on February 7th and 8th is intense, isolated to New England and quite temporary. By Monday, February 9th, temperatures will moderate across the region and the week as a whole may end up featuring a round of above normal temperatures with readings challenging the freezing mark a few times in valley locations. The thaw threat continues to appear low with the Davis Strait block anchored in place and the relaxing jet should send a storm in our direction. This appears most likely during the middle of the week. 

One of the key aspects of this update involves the gradual loss of PNA/EPO support upstream. The jet in the Pacific is expected to get a little fiery by around the 10th of the month and this should mean some much needed snow in the Rocky Mountains. To say it's been a miserable snow year out west is an understatement. Mad River Glen has double the seasonal snowfall as Telluride, DOUBLE !! We are ahead of Wolf Creek, CO and running about even with Alta in Utah. That's just incredible, two of the snowiest places in the country. Those guys will finally get a supportive pattern and a chance to exert themselves a bit. Across the interior northeast, we will need to rely on the blocking in the pattern and the support of some home grown cold in eastern Canada because I don't think it's going to be an especially arctic month with the exception of the upcoming weekend.  

Bombs Away !! Big storm offshore is strong enough to hold my attention, but too far east to produce any Vermont snowfall this weekend

Bombs away

Well, I guess I'm back in love again

Well, hey now, and around we go

This will bring me ruin 

Though I suppose it's pleasing 

I've changed the eyes I gaze in 

Still, she's just another girl

And I'll need more than a trade in 

Guess I'll have to change the world  

 

 This Bobby tune, and I really do love the guy, is the song that always comes to mind when a bombing nor'easter enters into our weather discussion. I think the song is decent overall, having grown on me in recent years after a slow start. One of Weir's best and certainly overlooked song constructions might be the song Two Djinn which came to being in his post-Jerry band Rat Dog. Fantastic album overall actually called Evening Moods and it's out of print so if anyone has a copy I'll take it. 

 

Back to the bombing nor'easter, it is absolutely mesmerizing to look at on a weather map yet it remains a miss for Vermont and most of New England. The storm will take shape near Cape Hatteras early on Saturday and get a full detonation over the Atlantic, deepening to at least 968 mb (hurricane level strength, though less consolidated) while passing about 200 miles or so east of Cape Cod. This may or may not be close enough to spread some blizzard conditions to the Cape and Islands. It is certainly not close enough to bring snow to the remainder of New England barring a major last minute shift. Storms of this magnitude have the tendency to suck all the energy out of a room, unless you're in the energy. This means a dry weekend is coming our way which will include some sunshine and excellent visibility. Temps will start out at 10 below Saturday and then recover to almost 10 degrees. Sunday's temperatures may warm a few degrees but the proximity of the aforementioned storm will turn up the volume on wind speed so plan for that. 

 

We remain chilly for the first full week of February with temperatures on a few afternoons reaching the 20-degree mark. Except for flurries and lighter snow showers, most of the period will be dry since the unsettled part of the jet stream is expected to stay situated south of us. We see changes in this regime very late in the week and could have an interesting weather situation to deal with in the Friday, February 6th to Saturday, February 7th time frame. A lesser surge of arctic air to go along with a robust looking clipper system will combine to create another storm opportunity for us. The weekend in question is also likely to be windy and cold again whether we get some significant snow or miss most of it. 

 

The 2nd full week of February still has a nice look to it with the jet stream blocking through the Davis Strait offering us some protection against any potential thaw and creating an environment conducive for east coast storms. We lose a bit of life toward the middle of the month from the negative EPO though the index remains favorable throughout the period. We have it going right now and one of the most important aspects to keeping this train moving is thaw avoidance and this current outlook is cooperating in that regard. 

 

 

First half of February looks excellent with less intense cold next week and good storm potential thereafter.

 We have a nice little visit form the polar vortex late this week. The feature is actually expected to weaken and then drop over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and then help to spin up a weather feature for the weekend. More on that in a bit. The cold weather in Vermont peaked last weekend but will remain very chilly with wind for the rest of the week and the weekend. Temperatures will start out each of the next three days (Wednesday, Thursday and Friday) a shade below zero and rise to the 5-10 degree range on the mountain (15 in the valley) Wednesday and Thursday and then only 0-5 on Friday. The wind is expected to create a material chill factor during the whole period blowing 10-20 mph. Snowfall will be limited to flurries for the rest of the week. 

The weekend weather map sure is interesting. The PV feature I mentioned will spin up a strong area of low pressure that is expected to deliver parts of eastern North Carolina and even  Cape Hatteras an unusual snowfall. This type of setup, especially with the polar jet weakening, can mean that a storm like this can move up the coast and be a big snow producer for the northeast. There are models that are showing this to an extent, but I am feeling increasingly confident the effects of this will miss Vermont (except for the wind). The storm probably stays offshore following the North  Carolina hit and this will mean a weekend featuring sun, wind and moderating daytime temperatures that actually might make the teens both days. It's worth keeping an eye on though I do consider this the most likely outcome. 

We haven't had a chance to discuss February weather too much with the short term and wintry weather situation consuming much of our attention. In short the first half of the month looks excellent. The storminess in the Pacific is never fully going to eliminate the negative EPO which has largely powered this exceptional winter we've had so far. With the PV expected to weaken and move south this weekend, the cold will relent somewhat, but the east coast and especially New England is expected to remain cold. Can we make use of that cold and produce some snowfall ? Possibly, though that appears more likely as the week progresses and not on Monday and Tuesday, the 2nd and third of the month. 

The 2nd full week of February looks interesting. The jet in the Pacific remains supportive while a blocking mechanism develops in the jet stream over the Davis Strait and becomes one of the dominant features for the entire Northern Hemisphere. I get the sense that this is not a setup that will necessarily produce an arctic outbreak and rather a rather multiple stormy scenarios for many places including us. Best of all, the risk of a thaw appears quite low and we wouldn't want one of those disrupting the excellent run we've been on. 

Just a beautiful cold powder day Monday and very chilly balance of the week accompanied by wind

Hope folks enjoyed the beautiful cold gentle snow we got Sunday evening. Winds were pretty ferocious closer to the coast while on the periphery of the storm such as our spectacular location, we saw a nice gentle wind to accompany the snowfall. It doesn't happen often and at these subzero temperatures, it may have gone unnoticed. 

Snow will continue throughout Monday and will generally fall at a lighter intensity. Some of the higher resolution model data suggests that this lighter snow in the morning will actually intensify a bit as the ski day progresses. Winds are expected to pick up just a bit, blowing in a favorable northwesterly direction which will help enhance some of that lingering moisture. We have a slight improvement to report on temperatures which are now expected to climb to about 10 (no such luck on the upper mountain, I am afraid). Still looking at a storm. total of over a foot and likely in that 18-24 inch range. Most of it will fall before the ski day begins while 4-8 can be expected throughout the day. 

The polar vortex is expected to spin its way into southeastern Canada, with a weakened version dropping right over northern Vermont late this week. The cold has in fact peaked already, having done so on Saturday into early Sunday though the pattern and the presence of the vortex will continue to support some extreme chill and we can also expect an increase in wind. Some light snow is likely late on Tuesday and more flurries for the balance of the week bringing a light accumulation at most. Theme for the rest of the week appears to be dry and cold and we can expect some significant wind chill to go along with intervals of sunshine. The warmest afternoon appears to be Tuesday with maybe a high close to 10 degrees. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will see readings generally below 5 above on the mountain along with that wind I mentioned which will likely be 25 mph in exposed areas. 

The remnants of this vortex of cold is expected to turn the pattern very amplified this weekend, generating a storm that for now is indicated to stay offshore. If this remains the case, the January 31 to February 1 weekend could be sunny with temperatures moderating slightly to the 10-15 category. It's also possible, not likely that the storm hugs the coast and becomes a factor in our weather picture, providing additional snow. 

The first full week of February is expected to feature a temperature moderation and I would expect some opportunities for snow. Parts of the country should get a chance to thaw out and melt some snow in early February, but I don't see that as a likely scenario in Vermont.  

 

 

Big storm isn't leaving Vermont out of the snow party with 1-2 cold feet expected for late Sunday into Monday

Welcome back for another beautiful winter weather update. Temperatures are plummeting across the state of Vermont Friday evening and Mother Nature is poised to provide us with one hell of a ride as far as winter weather goes.I have very few changes through about Monday, just a bit more clarity and detail so lets get to it. 

 Bluebird weather, terrific visibility and 10-25 mph winds (depending on the exposure) accompany the -10 to -20 degree temperatures we are set to experience Saturday. Prepare accordingly and I can't imagine any of this would take skiers by surprise at this point. Winds will subside enough under clear skies to produce what could be the coldest night of the year for many local residence. Expect a few 20 below readings before a few hours of morning sunshine boost temperatures a bit upward. 

Snow is expected to arrive for us in the 1-3 pm time slot Sunday. It is one of the coldest storms in  over a decade not only for Vermont, but for the multitude of states it is expected impact with snow, sleet and ice. For us, it's all cold, cold snow with temperatures not venturing far from zero degrees late Sunday. We won't be able to match the snow intensity that is likely to occur in states like Massachusetts or Connecticut, instead, we get the longer duration. The northward shift came to life with this storm as the coastal low pressure center that is expected to take shape Sunday and move pretty close to Long Island before exiting to the east on Monday. This is plenty far enough for moisture to extend northward in our direction and the best part relates to the decaying surface feature which will continue depositing fluffy snow over us throughout the ski day on Monday. What a dream ! 

I am ready to put snowfall totals in that 1-2 foot category. About 2-4 of this appears destined to fall late in the ski day Sunday. Steady snow then continues to fall Sunday night depositing an additional 6-10 inches by first tracks time on Monday. Then we get the bonus ! The decaying original low pressure center which will appear like a slight inverted surface wave will keep the snow flying on Monday even as the rest of the country gets a nice dose of cold sunshine. These features can get interesting and produce localized deformation bands of snow that can make someone very lucky. Though it's hard to pinpoint those, it's easy to see the weather map will produce another 4-8inches of snow and this still could be conservative. Either, the snow consistency will be be fluffy and delicious. Very high likelihood this is the premier day of the season so far so long as you are ok with temperatures close to zero degrees on the mountain and a respectable 15-25 mph wind north wind with higher gusts. 

More lighter snowfall is now expected on Tuesday after a respite Monday night. This comes from a clipper system crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures are still expected to be very chilly and perhaps only a few degrees above zero while winds will continue to be a factor. There's a better chance to see sun as the week progresses while temperatures remain bitterly cold. Expect readings in the single numbers on the mountain Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Like many arctic air masses, this one also appears a bit too stable to produce heavy snow showers, though winds are favorable and still could bring lighter snow showers to the mountain on any or all of these days. We will certainly make a run at freezing Lake Champlain for the first time this decade once January concludes. I should point out that we expect winds to continue to bring very low wind chills to the mountain. Conditions will be amazing but dress for 30 below wind chills at least. 

Temperatures are expected to moderate slowly on January 31st and February 1st (This being the subsequent weekend) and that trend is expected to continue into early February. There are no indications of a thaw though and several models have been spinning up storms in what remains a somewhat amplified pattern, especially on that weekend I just mentioned. Any time the polar jet is involved, changes in the weather forecast can come quickly. Often times, a big east coast storm can materialize just as the arctic pattern relaxes and this appears to be such a situation. The first full week of February is likely to be wintry with temperatures much closer to normal. This being closer to 20 degrees for a higher and 5-10 for a low. 

Let's add some signifcant snowfall to this cold weather story !!

 The best magic trick I know would be tell you all that the bitterly cold weather we are bracing ourselves for is going to limit snowfall. Conventional wisdom only takes you so far however and inevitably the weather finds a way to produce some sort of unique outcome. This appears to be headed in that direction. While a powerful polar jet quite often does limit snowfall in January across northern Vermont by bringing both a stable boundary layer and suppressing the storm track, there's always an open door, especially along the east coast. 

We also have some lighter snowfall in the short term. Clipper system brings some Wednesday evening amounting to about 2-3 inches for the ski day Thursday. This was more or less in accordance with expectations. The snow shower setup during the day on Thursday appears very much improved. We don't have the benefit of the most favorable wind direction (this being northwest), but the atmospheric profile appears very unstable for January. Even with the west wind, we should be able to produce a few good bursts of snow on the mountain and some additional accumulations of 1-3 inches. The snow showers will in fact continue through half of Friday producing an additional light accumulation before the blast of arctic cold shuts it all down late Friday afternoon. Friday's arctic cold will come in hard and fast and temperatures will move lower very quickly, likely reaching subzero levels Friday evening. Until then however, the forecast is snowier and temperatures should reach the 20's on Thursday and may start closer to 15 early Friday before falling off the cliff late in the day. 

Bluebird weather for Saturday and bitterly cold with gusty northwest winds for most of the day. It's lining up to be the coldest actual day this decade. We had a day in early February 2023 which was 10 to 20 below for much of the ski day before temperatures warmed during the evening to about 10 above. This Saturday we can expect 10 to 15 below zero on the mountain during the ski day and no such warming Saturday evening. Readings could reach 20 below in a few valley locations Sunday morning before some morning sunshine pushes readings toward zero degrees during the afternoon. 

The big story though has evolved from simply just cold weather and now includes snow for many more places including Vermont. Yes, the northward shift is back and has arrived early enough for a happy Wednesday update.  The polar jet has arrived as advertised and many times it might just overpower the pattern and suppress all storms and yet the southeast ridge is still there and appears destined to poke it's nose up the east coast late this weekend before vanishing. It does so just as a piece of the polar vortex is driven out into the open Atlantic Ocean. We thus have an open door and multiple areas of low pressure, one in eastern Kentucky and another off the Virginia coast midday Sunday, sending cold moisture in our direction. It will be a sizable winter storm and a cold one for the entirety of the east coast, probably the coldest storm this decade. New York City will get a big accumulation of snow and probably some sleet as well while snow is could arrive in  Vermont (our part of Vermont) by midday Sunday. It's rather incredible and somewhat ironic, because we are situated pretty well for this. The coastal storm is expected to exit stage right by Monday leaving the remnants of the inland low pressure area and an associated area of moisture over the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains for Monday. It's early and there are models that keep much of the snowfall to our south still,but the trend is our friend right now. 10-20 inches or something like that is suddenly quite reasonable and this looked very dry just two days ago. 

It remains very cold in the wake of the Sunday/Monday snow, assuming that trend remains our friend. Though temperatures will be below zero on a few of those mornings next week, I do think the cold is set to peak in that late Friday to early Sunday time frame (this weekend). The cold next week will feature temperatures in the +5 to +15 range for most of the ski days and many of today days will have gusty winds. Models have been spinning up another storm late next week in response to an amplifying jet stream. Arctic patterns do favor coastal hits over inland hits, yet as this weekend is set to prove, you just never know. 

Arctic air is expected to weaken it's grip in early February for much of North America while likely remaining a factor for New England. That part of the forecast appears colder as well.