We miss on the first chance for snow on Wednesday while snow late on Friday into Saturday appears more likely

36 hours helped clear the proverbial fog out of the forecast and provide a relatively clear road map to the active weather picture that confronts us over the next 5 days. There's a potential storm to discuss for the end of the upcoming weekend which could push east somewhat innocently over the ocean or eventually become a massive east coast hit in some way. Without the help of a friendly EPO which we've had for much of the season it will be a changeable weather scene in Vermont for the last few days of February and into early March. 

Turns out Wednesday will be a dry day after all.Certainly a lot better than the thaw that had threatened this part of the forecast period for some time. The snow won't be far from us, a narrow corridor falling mostly in the Berkshires and perhaps as far north as extreme southern Vermont. Dry air will win the day in northern Vermont and so much so, that skies are now expected to clear for the latter part of the ski day providing us with a nice clear view of the sunset for Wednesday evening when temperatures are expected to drop to near 10 degrees. The drier and less cloudy trend in the outlook continues through Thursday which is now expected to be mostly bluebird with readings up around 30 degrees on the mountain along with very little wind. Short of a new snowfall, this is an excellent way to avoid the milder temperatures I had been worried about. 

New snowfall is expected before the upcoming weekend. Friday will actually start with a bit of sunshine and temperatures in the teens before clouds overspread all of Vermont and snow begins likely just around the end of the ski day. The system responsible will get a bit stretched out upon its approach with part of the storm trying to reposition in coastal New England, with the original system slowly pushing eastward in the northern Great Lakes region. We should not expect an epic snow event out of this. The initial period should provide us with the heaviest accumulation Friday evening, likely on the order of 3-6 inches. Additional light snow during the day Saturday will certainly help however and bring total storm accumulations over 5 inches though some adjustments to these expectations are likely as we get closer to the event. The mountains should stay safe from any wetter snowfall with readings remaining in the 20's. 

The stretched out nature of this initial storm will turn the Saturday weather map into a rather messy conglomeration of weaker low pressure areas with no real consolidated areas of precipitation. Model consensus or blend of models suggests this to change as the jet stream becomes more amplified on Sunday. A more well defined area of low pressure is expected to develop in southern Virginia, or close to that and potentially detonate as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. The storm could prove to be another big hit for coastal big cities, move out over the Atlantic Ocean with a smaller impact or turn north, as some storms do, and become a hit for interior New England. The former two scenarios would not have us get additional snowfall save for a little lingering snow Saturday night. The weekend is safe from any milder temperatures and so are the first three days of next week through Wednesday, February 25th. Some arctic air is expected to make its way into northern New England in the wake of this storm by late on Monday with most of that ski day getting blustery. As I mentioned, this is a changeable weather pattern with milder temperatures possible late next week though models have yet to get conclusive about any potential push of milder air. 

I expect the first week of March to feature at least some milder weather thanks to the EPO and the bottleneck of cold in  western Canada. Mostly it's because March is typically like that unless you get some help from a very supportive weather pattern. I will say for early March that arctic air is expected to encompass most of western and central Canada through at least March 5th and the warm signal over Vermont is present but pretty weak. It's a setup that would allow for a day or two of milder weather as I mentioned while at the same time include more wintry weather and snowfall. March in Vermont ! 

Not much of thaw this week and snow appears more likely though it's tricky to figure out when most of that falls

Took a day and stayed away from looking at any weather. Come back to some terribly obscured details, little model agreement and a complicated 5-day forecast. The one certainty and more dominant theme relates to another successful defense of our winter weather conditions. More specifically, we avoid all the worst components of the upcoming warm weather push and the uncertainty relates mostly to whether or not it will snow in certain periods this week and upcoming weekend and how much. 

It's just a mostly cloudy sky for the President's Day Monday with a light wind and temperatures on the mountain near 30 degrees. Valley locations will make a successful pass of the freezing mark, but with low dewpoints and lighter wind speeds, the milder weather won't alter snow conditions over the higher terrain. Same goes for Tuesday which should feature more clouds and some light snow showers. The altitude should prove even more important for Tuesday when valley spots could reach the 40-degree barrier. 

Wednesday could have been the day to torch and it won't be. Low level cool air arrives in the nick of time and we situate ourselves on the north side of a temperature boundary that is expected to actually push south as the week progresses.  Some clearing is possible late Tuesday with a bit of blue sky lingering into early Wednesday though its a cloudy week overall and most of Wednesday is expected to be such. The question for late Wednesday into Wednesday night relates to snow and whether it occurs and how much. The original Euro model puts us in great spot for some steady snow late Wednesday, setting us up for a powdery Thursday. The consensus of all model output has shifted the snow and precipitation more generally southward leaving us out of the heaviest snowfall. I'll take the tradeoff since the middle part of the week appears to have no wintry mix or rain in the picture and the possibility for accumulating snow continues. Just going to need another day or day and a half to get some additional clarity on the eventual result. 

Any snow early Thursday would again give way to some temporary clearing late in the day. Overnight temperatures are then allowed to drop to near 10 for early Friday and then its a big conglomeration of weather approaching for the weekend with more model dissension. The OG Euro which continues to hit us pretty good (as I mentioned) late on Wednesday confines all of the weekend action to our south. It's done this on successive runs which is notable. Other simulations including the newer Euro AI has a substantial hit late Friday and some additional snow late Sunday into Monday thanks to a potential coastal bomb. Some tepid support for this comes from the GFS and to a lesser degree the Canadian simulation. With this update getting way too in the weeds with model output, one can get the gist of the weather for next week. Not mild enough for a big thaw and cold enough to support some new snow and still hard to tell when most of that will fall. Hopefully that makes sense ! 

Ironically the weather picture for next week or the last 6 days of February seems to be better defined. Some snow or snow showers along with blustery and chilly conditions for Monday. The cold will then linger into Tuesday before another mild threat has emerged for the end of the week. I'll talk more about the outlook for early March in a subsequent update, but I can preface that with the report that we aren't getting a ton of help from the indices right now and and this is not expected to change through the rest of the month. We can thus get a quick burst of chill and certainly get some snow though its harder to sustain colder weather.  

 

 

 

 

 

Comfortable weekend incoming and less thawing and more potential snowing next week

The heavy snow showers on Wednesday combined with the over-performance snow Tuesday evening has created some of the best skiing of the season and we finally can enjoy it without -20 to -40 degree wind chills. Still chilly for Friday, especially in the morning with temperatures not far from zero. Then the February sunshine goes to work and temperatures recover into the 20's with tolerable wind speeds to go along with some terrific visibility. 

Weekend weather has come better into focus this Thursday so we can drill into some finer details and stop speculating as to unlikely possibilities. Clouds and some snow showers appear likely for early Saturday and a dusting up to 2 inches is our expected outcome. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 20's with gusty yet manageable wind speeds. Those clouds should decrease as the day progresses leading to a colorful sunset and a chilly yet seasonable overnight. Sunday appears outstanding with some sunshine, less wind and temperatures recovering to the high 20's. The storm on Monday appears far enough south to keep its cloud shield away from northern Vermont though some warm advection cloudiness is possible as the day progresses. Readings of near 30 degrees Monday will make it feel almost balmy. 

I rather like the direction  next week appears to be headed right now. We've handed in our resignation on cold weather which is fine, but there are varying forms of mild weather and if it's the kind that produces temperatures near the freezing mark with snow falling, we'd certainly sign up for that. Storminess will get rather consolidated across the Rocky Mountain west early next week with much needed snowfall in the northern Rocky Mountains while arctic cold is bottled up over western Canada. MRG will have that aforementioned 30-degree day on President's Day Monday followed by what I think will be a milder day on Tuesday with readings testing the freezing mark. We haven't done that on the mountain since January 14th and if we do it with dry weather and low dewpoints, it will prove rather inconsequential. More cloudiness should then accompany another mild day on Wednesday as an organized storm system approaches. This system does not appear headed deep into Quebec. It's eventual track might actually end up south of Vermont with a push of colder Canadian air providing support for wintry precipitation. Some rainfall remains probable while the prospects for some substantial snowfall has gained some steam with this low level push of cold appearing more robust. Remember in these types of cold years, with ice covering the Great Lakes aggregate at about 50 percent, threatening thaws can suddenly become substantial snows. The time frame on this would be in the Wednesday/Thursday period  with weather conditions drying out for the last full weekend of February. 

It appears the EPO will hold steady in a slightly positive state for the rest of the month while the big feature will be a high latitude block expected to set up in the extreme northeast portion of the Eurasian continent. This will position cold in North America but mostly western North America while New England mostly stays out of the bitter chill. Late February does have a tendency to produce a mild day even in a general period of relatively seasonable weather so I would expect that in the last week of the month along with some sort of additional snowfall.  

Finally a weekend without extreme cold and wind

Our local NBC affiliate suggested that Lake Champlain was 99 percent frozen as of February 9th and I didn't visually spot any open water from the top of Stark Mountain on the early part of a bluebird Tuesday.  One easy way to calibrate the intensity of a cold year is to simply observe the amount of land mines a skier as to dodge at the bottom of Lower A at MRG. If there are none, such as now, Lake Champlain is probably close to or entirely frozen. Freezing the "Sixth Great Lake" is challenging because of its depth and significant since it eliminates a source of moisture that contributes to our seasonal snowfall. The additional snowfall we are expecting Wednesday and Wednesday night will in fact be held down because of the aforementioned ice. There are positive byproducts to freezing this local body of water however and this will come in handy next week when fending off the milder pushes of air that are currently being forecast. 

Tuesday night snowfall came in successfully and light snowfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night should add 1-3 inches to that total.  Temperatures might even get close to the freezing mark in valley locations though this is not expected on the mountain. Conditions are actually expected to turn blustery again by later Wednesday and continue into early Thursday with daytime temperatures closer to 20. We should get some clearing late on Thursday setting us up for a magnificent bluebird Friday with low wind speeds and temperatures recovering to 20 degrees from a morning low of zero.  

Wind and cold have dominated each of the last 3 weekends at MRG and while the upcoming holiday weekend won't exactly be tropical, it will be a lot more comfortable. We can expect some cold morning temperatures both Saturday and Sunday but reasonable daytime conditions with 20's expected Saturday and near 30 on Sunday. Saturday is a little blustery with some snow showers and Sunday appears more likely to feature some sunshine and less wind. Yes, the potential Monday, President's Day storm continues to show up on model simulations and most of those simulations take this system to our south. There's been enough disagreement on the eventual result to keep watch, but I am not of the belief this system is for us. Never say never in this business unless you really mean it and I haven't yet reached that point. 

For the first time since the middle January, northern Vermont will have to fend off a serious push of milder weather for the middle of the week. Milder than average temperatures should prevail for the entirety of the week, but Monday and Tuesday both appear innocuous. We have what we think will just be some clouds for Monday and temperatures in the high 20's followed by the same for Tuesday with readings crossing the 30-degree mark. Clouds are usually a very prominent part of New England weather when milder air attempts to scour the cold out and next week is no exception. It's the precipitation and wind we worry about in this case and a wintry mix or rain is certainly possible Wednesday, Thursday or both. This does not appear to be a storm destined to track way into Quebec however and I have a funny feeling this isn't over. Would not at all surprise me to see a trend where the cold in Vermont is able to hold it's ground and some type of snow is introduced into the forecast along with the wintry mix. 

Ensembles are indicating the reemergence of some upstream blocking in the jet stream for the final week of February. This will push arctic air back toward North America to some degree during this time frame. In this case, the blocking is forecast to set up over northeast Russia near the East Siberian Sea and will send the cold toward western North America first. The Great Lakes and New England could see a piece of this action and some accompanying winter weather though I would not expect the return of bitterly cold temperatures. The door will still be open for an inland runner type storm in this pattern. 

A bit of snow for the upcoming week as we say goodbye to the extreme temperatures and wind chill

Still dealing with some pesky winds to accompany the near zero degree temperatures Sunday. We have some stronger February sunshine to power us through as well and this will certainly help with Monday's weather which is expected to be mostly bluebird and temperatures recovering into the teens. Those winds I mentioned will still be gusting up to 30 mph Sunday and 20 mph on Monday before subsiding Tuesday. Two key indices are both switching signs today with the EPO turning positive and the PNA negative. The EPO in particular indicates a more hostile Pacific jet stream situation for the next two weeks, yet we are certainly safe for the first of those weeks. 

Tuesday's lack of wind and 20-degree temperatures will feel amazing. We start out with a little sun which will quickly give way to clouds and then the snow arrives. The storm in question isn't much to look at, but the warm advection features are excellent at producing snowfall in New England generally and this system will do so for us. Looks like a gentle 3-6 inch snow, mostly late Tuesday evening with some light snow continuing into Wednesday yielding a small additional accumulation. Temperatures will be in the 20's as this is all happening which is certainly a big improvement over the weekend. The week will then finish almost normal. Twenties for daytime temperatures, mostly low teens during the overnight and a little blustery on Thursday. Not expecting much in terms of additional snowfall with clouds and intervals of sunshine both days. 

The American GFS model output continues to sporadically spin up a storm for the President's Day holiday. The latest version as of this update had that happening on the holiday Monday. This particular model has had a absolutely horrible run of it the last several weeks and improvements are not coming given all the cuts made to our various atmospheric research institutions this past year. Fortunately, the European both the AI and OG versions continue to paint a realistic picture of the most likely outcome in the medium range forecast picture. The AI version of the European model did an outstanding job depicting the weather for the upcoming week  which consists of moderating temps but no blowtorch. Anyway, the holiday weekend looks like a fair weather situation. Lots of sunshine and excellent visibility (with storminess confined to areas well south of us) and reasonable temperatures in the 20's during the day and teens at night. Most importantly, the weekend won't feature a ton of wind (I don't think) and each of the last three have had the very cold wind and wind chill impact to deal with. 

The thaw threat is certainly alive for week 2 after the President's Day holiday. If it were to happen, it would likely be a middle of the week issue and a short term problem. I seen it going one of two ways. A bad scenario where we get torched for a day with some accompanying wind and rain. A failed warm up where the weather consists of clouds, near 30-degree temperatures and some snow or a wintry mix. Many cold winters in Vermont, such as the one we are living through, do not give in to mild weather easy. We have deep snow cover, 50 percent ice coverage on the Great Lakes, almost 100 percent ice coverage locally on Lake Champlain. These are cold feedback mechanisms that tend to work in the favor or more winter weather. That said, I would place my bet on the mostly failed warm up during the time frame in question and it will certainly be interesting to see how it plays out. 

Got a couple hours early Saturday to enjoy the new snowfall before the wind and bitter cold arrives

Another weekend arriving and another bombing offshore storm will have a big say on weather conditions. In the meantime, we start out chilly Friday and then temperatures moderate under increasing cloudiness. Wind speeds will stay tolerable and readings in the teens will make it feel rather nice and a striking contrast to weather conditions Saturday. The clipper system dropping over New York state will spread light snow over Vermont Friday night. I expect 2-4 inches of of the light and fluffy stuff and then continued light snow through much of the ski day. I've got a very important clarification or call to make regarding this. If you plan to ski Saturday, get out early. We have a few hours until about noon where wind speeds will be manageable and temperatures will hover in the 5-10 degree range. In the afternoon winds are expected to increase dramatically and this will coincide with a big drop in temperatures. I expect readings to finish the day below zero. Meanwhile, we can expect another 2-4 inches of snow during the day Saturday and perhaps an additional inch Saturday night ahead of what will be a cold mostly subzero Sunday. I was hoping winds would diminish Sunday yet they will continue to be blustery throughout the ski day. 

This is the last blast of intense chill for a while I think with the EPO change forcing a retreat and repositioning of the arctic cold. All that said, winter in Vermont will hold its ground through the 2nd week of the month. Monday starts out cold before recovering into the low teens thanks to bluebird weather. Tuesday should be a milder version of Monday. Pushes of milder weather, especially those that ultimately fail to bring said mild weather to Vermont often result in some snowfall and I expect we see some around the Wednesday time frame. This does not appear to be a significant storm and I still think several inches are possible. The end of the week does not appear to have any material mild threats with garden variety temperatures expected consisting of 20's for highs and near 10 for overnight lows. 

At the current time, the longer range ensembles are confining the storminess on the President's Day holiday offshore. We continue to see models sporadically show a storm around that weekend, but the Davis Strait block is shown to migrate closer to the Hudson Bay in that time frame which supports more of a fair weather jet stream for New England. Temperatures on the mountain should remain below freezing and there is little risk of the bitterly cold temperatures which have dominated the recent weekends such as the upcoming one. 

The adverse impacts of the EPO continue to elevate the risk of milder temperatures in the third week of February. Ensembles have yet to indicate or warn of a blowtorch however. For now it looks like a standard run of above normal temperatures which, at face value, is certainly something we can handle.  

Bitterly cold this weekend with some accompanying snow and then the chill relents

Piggybacking off the last update, I am going to savor the moment on our snowfall. We are in 10th place at the Mt Mansfield snowstake with terrific snow quality and the west has been hurting for most of the season. I had mentioned the snowiest spots in Colorado and Utah as a reference point. Another would be Tahoe, a place that has also struggled this year and one of the highest resorts there, Mt Rose, is roughly even with MRG on seasonal snowfall. The EPO is now expected to a big turn however and spend a good chunk of February in positive territory. We saw this trend commence over the weekend and it has been validated in a decisive way in the subsequent modeling. After an intense blast of cold this weekend, most of the rest of this month won't feature too much arctic cold. We still have some supportive blocking in the Davis Strait region which will help with storm trajectory, but the pattern will certainly allow for sporadic milder days and little extreme cold after Monday morning. 

Residual cold weather following the recent polar vortex drop continues to deliver cold weather for Vermont. As opposed to the wind that we dealt with much of last week, the weather now would be more comparable to western ski areas with the magnificent  blue skies, great visibility, cold overnights and comfortable afternoons. Clouds and light snow return for very early Wednesday with 1-3 inches of fluff around first tracks time. Blue skies are then expected to return later in the day and we should expect that to continue into Thursday with readings again in the teens and a bit more wind than what we had early this week. 

We have a bit more clarity now with weekend weather and there is quite a bit of it. A potent clipper system will drop southeastward and bring with it a very intense and very direct shot of arctic cold. We also have some snowfall though the ski day on Friday appears dry. Friday will actually start out sunny and subzero with temperatures again moderating to the middle teens with increasing cloudiness and tolerable wind speeds. Snow then begins late Friday evening. Limited moisture from the clipper will get enhanced by a very favorable wind off the mostly but not entirely frozen Lake Champlain. I would expect 4-8 inches of windblown powder on Saturday with challenging elements. Temperatures are likely to spend all of Saturday below zero with sustained winds of up to 30 mph with higher gusts. Clouds should break for sunshine on Sunday with temperatures close to -15 in the morning and recovering to about 5 above in the afternoon. 

I've spent a considerable amount of time analyzing the very fluid weather situation next week. We are losing the support of a friendly Pacific jet stream and the coldest core of arctic air will recede northward and westward. There are models suggesting we torch for a day next week though the consensus indication is that winter will hold its ground across Vermont and other portions of northern New England. We have the continued support of downstream blocking and we have the added benefit of some cold feedback mechanisms given the amount of ice covering the Great Lakes aggregate (for one). It's the most since 2015. I've been interested in watching the performance of the European AI model, a close, new relative of the OG European model and though it suggests temperatures get up close to freezing a few times, we get a snowy week out of htis whole deal. I like that scenario obviously, but it's early. We know Monday will remain chilly with temperatures moderating into the teens following the weekend blast of arctic cold. The middle part of next week is then likely to be cloudy with temperatures just below the freezing mark and a good chance for some accumulating snowfall. A more organized storm system is then likely to approach around the beginning of the holiday weekend. We won't have the benefit of arctic cold and I still like our odds that we can score some snow out of whatever happens. 

I've been downplayed the risk of a thaw through the first half of February and I although I think this holds, I lose confidence as we move into the 2nd half of the month. We can't fight an angry Pacific forever and eventually it's likely to get us. We also begin to move temperature climatology in a significantly upward direction for the 2nd half of the month. Nothing wrong with a little warm weather if we can keep the wind and dewpoint temperature down and needless to say, the rain away.