Parts of the forecast period look colder today, though the expectation for lots of early March warmth remains

In spite of the warm weather headed in our direction, Monday morning's 10 below ranks as one of the colder mornings of the season, even as strong March sunshine brings temperatures back into the teens. There's an end in sight to the mild weather and a section of the forecast period doesn't appear as warm though it doesn't change the overall theme of the update. We also still have snow lined up for Tuesday evening which I get to talk about first. 

I love a cold bluebird day and Monday is certainly one of the better ones of the year given the relatively calm winds. These conditions will persist through early Tuesday with temperatures beginning the day around zero along with more sunshine. The thermometer is expected to rise quickly Tuesday and may eclipse the freezing mark briefly even as clouds increase later in the ski day. The snow is expected to begin around 6 pm, timed perfectly with the onset of darkness. Temperatures profiles suggest that the falling snow occurs with readings in the high 20's with accumulations in the 3-5 inch range. The snow is over before dawn and there could be some freezing drizzle very early Wednesday. The clouds on Wednesday are expected to gradually break for some blue sky with the thermometer warming to near 40 by the end of the day. Skiers looking for the driest snow should certainly venture out early with the warm weather later in the day expected to impact most of the mountain.

Thursday appears like a dry day with clouds returning. It appears as if temperatures fall back under the freezing mark in the morning and then rise well above that during the day. Model guidance would suggest an afternoon high close to 40 though it appears to me as if we could exceed that. Friday appears to be a different story entirely and a day that certainly appears different then a few days ago. A low level push of cold arrives from Canada and I would expect this to be strong enough to keep temperatures closer to the freezing mark through much of the day on the mountain. Model consensus would suggest the heaviest precipitation stays to our south with light rain or light freezing rain most likely for a period in central and northern Vermont. In spite of the large warm weather ridge parked over the east coast in this time frame, the low level chill appears formidable enough to remain in place through much of Saturday, keeping it in the 30's for a time with clouds and low visibility. The push of warm air might finally win out very late in the ski day Saturday and this could be accompanied by some rainfall. Sunday continues to appear like a torch with temperatures surging into the 50's. Though clouds could break for some sunshine, the chance for showers continues. 

Sunday's 50-plus temperatures is the first of what we expect will be a few days with very excessive March warmth. Each of the next three days of the week (at least) are likely to see readings in the 50's with and 1-2 days could exceed 60. The middle part of next week has an elevated risk where, higher winds, very warm temperatures and rain spur a rapid melt off. Still some time to alter this evolution and I am aware of some events on the mountain we would certainly like to keep some snow around for. Ensembles have come around to the idea of a more favorable winter weather jet stream picture for the middle of the month. We don't totally calm some of the anger coming out of the Pacific, but we do get pretty neutral while operational models continue to show the return of some colder air prior to the weekend of March 14th and 15th.   

 

 

Very warm pattern still headed our way after some snowfall late Tuesday

Sunshine is allowing temperatures to eclipse expectations for Saturday. The southwesterly flow almost always brings in the mild air and the blue skies just make that daytime mixing process more efficient. It does not change expectations for the incoming arctic air however which arrives Saturday evening and will make Sunday a blustery and cold start to March. Readings will hover in the low teens with clouds and a period of light snowfall in the morning. We had moment when yesterday when I thought this snowfall could produce a few inches, but models are back in the dusting to an inch camp before skies clear late Sunday setting up for a subzero night. 

Monday's temps are much warmer though its a fantastic bluebird day. One of those will you will have a hard time finding any cloud and with low wind, a 15 degree temperatures doesn't feel that bad after a 5 below start.  The clear skies are indicated to persist for early Tuesday and this allows for another cold near zero morning before readings quickly recover toward the freezing mark with increasing clouds. Those clouds will bring our overrunning snowfall that I was hoping for. It begins Tuesday evening and it generally looked like a 3-6 inch snow falling over the course of about 6 hours or so. The European model has a little more punch to this system though as of early Saturday and would suggest we could squeeze more than 5 out of this storm prior to Wednesday's ski day. It does not look a particularly cold storm and we aren't far from the wintry mix. That said we should retain enough residual cold to keep readings just under 30 while the snow is falling on the mountain. The snow could be on the wetter side in the valley. 

The weather pattern still suggests the massive onslaught of warmer weather begins Wednesday. Models are are little slower translating this warmth to surface warmth at least this week.  Wednesday is still a mild day with readings rising into the 40's following the snowfall and Friday could see the thermometer advance toward 50 before some residual low level chill from Canada arrives later in the day. Rain or even some areas of freezing rain are then possible Friday ahead of what will be a very mild first full weekend of March.  Most of the wet weather appears lined up for Friday though it still looks a little showery over the weekend. We will have to get some more clarity on that since spring skiing is obviously more enjoyable without the rain. High temperatures both weekend days appear as if they could make a run at 50. 

The early part of the next week appears even warmer right now with one or perhaps two 60 degree days in there. Individual operational models suggest some chill returning late in the week, but ensembles maintain a definitive warm signal through the forecast period for now after the arctic blast expected for Sunday and Monday.  

 

Warm pattern looking intense beginning March 5th.

 It's been a season of mostly positive updates and a lot of upside surprises. I don't recall having to post a blog update quite like this one in quite a while. The EPO, a trusted ally for much of the season, turned on us a few week ago. We got a respite that timed itself almost perfectly with the blizzard that impacted southern New England earlier this week, but as we head into March, it's expected to move the wrong direction again and in a big way. We've fought off these head winds quite valiantly so far and will continue to so for a few more days and then the dam breaks around March 5. 

Friday's weather, at least the rain, clouds and low visibility, is now expected to be so far south, that the entirety of New England gets the bluebird special to finish the work week. This one comes with temperatures that almost exactly normal and that includes a cold morning of around 10 degrees and a pleasant afternoon of around 30 degrees. Expect more clouds for Saturday with a mild southwesterly breeze developing capable of sending the thermometer above 40-degrees near the base. Models do indicate some mixed precipitation during the day. It's both brief and relatively light with the precip type highly dependent on elevation. 

It's a very impressive shot of arctic air coming in early Sunday and gusty northwest winds. A dusting of snow is likely to accompany the push of colder weather while much of the actual ski day actually experiences blue skies, those winds I mentioned and temperatures holding in the high teens. The clearing skies sets us up for a bitterly cold Sunday night and perhaps the last subzero morning of the season. Certainly it's the coldest pairing of days we will see in March with Monday's temperatures also remaining in the teens albeit with less wind. 

Our chances for significant snow hinge on what is possible in association with the milder push of air that will begin on Tuesday. Can we establish an overrunning surface worthy of some steady snowfall ? Where is the most likely spot for any snowfall ? How much can actually fall ? These are all questions models are wrestling with as it relates to the weather on Tuesday, March 3rd. As of now, the consensus indication would not suggest any more than a few inches. 

The EPO is expected to surge toward a positive 2 and arctic air is indicated to go into major retreat mode beginning around March 3rd and 4th. It's an adverse teleconnection situation and the long wave jet stream set up looks even worse. Several blow torch days are indicated on multiple forecast models between March 5th and 13th. The setup capable appears capable of producing temperatures well above 50 and maybe even 60. The hard-earned cold weather feedbacks will need to work overtime to mitigate the impacts of this pattern were it to verify. I like the corn horn days though I would prefer a smaller dose this early. 

 

 

 

 

Cold weather fighting off the head winds impressively and should continue to mostly do so for another 10 days

 Conditions are close to what you would find in a hurricane out on Nantucket Monday morning The high winds and low visibility come with snowfall this time. The Cape and Islands region miss out on a lot of snowfall that interior areas of New England get and then once in a  while they just get hammered and no one else can compete. Quite a place for weather all you can do is tip your hat for enduring an epic blizzard. 

 Snow from this storm will mostly miss northern Vermont and the weather impacts are confined to just a day of cloudiness and an uptick in wind speed. Gusty winds and occasional snow flurries are expected to continue into Monday night and early Tuesday and then clouds may break for some afternoon sunshine or a bit of blue sky. We have the positive EPO working against us and in spite of that, we have both winter weather and a surprising amount of cold air in the outlook over the next 10 days. Consistent with tradition in late winter, each day is likely going to feature something a little different thanks to rapidly changing weather maps from one day to the next. 

 A clipper system is expected to bring some accumulating snow in our direction for the ski day Wednesday. The snow is actually expected to arrive close to daybreak Wednesday after a chilly night with single digit temperatures. The weather system has limited moisture and likely results in a 2-4 inch snow. It also accompanies a milder push of air though much of that air won't make it to interior New England. A light accumulation of additional snow is possible prior to the ski day on Thursday before clouds break for some sunshine and temperatures make a run at, but don't exceed, the freezing mark. 

There are a couple of surprising items in this update. The first relates to a stronger storm and area of moisture that is expected to impact the northeast Thursday into early Friday. I can't believe how far south this system has trended on the forecast models given this jet stream. Most of it is currently indicated to miss Vermont and I was more worried about ice with this potential system a few days ago. It would take another late northward shift to put snow from this storm back in play for us and we've certainly and substantially reduced the risk for any rain or ice prior to the upcoming weekend. Friday is chilly with temperatures holding in the 20's and then on Saturday, spring makes an early appearance. Some of the forecast guidance suggests near 40 degree temperatures on the last day of February, but with a few hours of sun and a healthy southwest wind, we could certainly bring readings closer to 50 at the base which would mean a blowing of the corn horn. A few more days can further clarify if that can happen.

The 2nd surprise relates to the buildup of cold in Canada in the face of our angry Pacific jet stream. With the help of some blocking in northeast Eurasia, an impressive area of arctic cold will build across Canada and bring the mild weather on Saturday to a quick end. It's not the coldest weather of the year by any stretch, yet it's certainly colder than what I though was possible in this pattern. Readings might start a bit on the milder side early Sunday and then dramatically drop as the day progresses and that turn to colder weather to start March will certainly be accompanied by wind and quite possibly by snow as well. The bigger question relates to whether that area of cold arriving Sunday can serve as a foundation for a snowfall as we move into the first full week of March. It does not appear like a cold pattern at jet stream level and yet Monday will start with subzero temperatures and then any subsequent push of milder air, increases the risk of snowfall. The longer range indicates an even milder jet stream thanks to an even angrier Pacific. Right now, it appears to be a tougher ask to overcome this setup with arctic air following March 5th or 6th and yet this is not a year to rule out more surprises. 

Massive east coast storm brings blizzard conditions to the coast and may bring a little snow and some wind to our area of Vermont Monday

Just some clouds and occasional light snow for your powdery Saturday. If you've been a weekend warrior and braved some of the bitter cold this year, the temperatures Saturday, which may get close to 30 at the base, will feel quite balmy. Lots of talk about the weather in the northeast for the end of the weekend even if the worst of it misses northern Vermont 

The very maligned American GFS model has taken a beating this year from weather enthusiasts. It's been wrong a lot and without the guidance from other simulations, would have led forecasters very astray many times. There's now a blizzard expected to hit southern New England late Sunday into Monday, an especially crippling event for the Cape and Islands region extending westward to Connecticut and New York City. The GFS has consistently showed this event while other models have been downplaying. It's not likely to materialize exactly as the GFS has suggested, but eventual solution is likely going to be blend of several models, underscoring the importance of taking everything into account and not simply dismissing data because of a batting slump. Northern Vermont will actually squeeze some sunshine and a relatively mild Sunday out of this weather situation. As the area of low pressure is taking shape along the Carolina coast, precipitation and even the clouds will be south and west of us leaving our mountains with a chilly morning and temperatures that will likely climb just above the freezing mark in the afternoon. There's a lot of wind expected with this storm, though Sunday in northern Vermont should remain relatively calm. 

Even if some of the forecast models remain somewhat unaligned, it's a classic bombs away situation for the northeast coastline in a very memorable kind of way. Some of the higher resolution output has our upcoming nor'easter strengthening to about 965 mb south of the Cape and Islands and that's certainly enough to create blizzard-like conditions and increase the chances for power outages. Northern Vermont has appeared out of the way from this storm, but one can never underestimate the northward reach of these monster systems. We know clouds and blustery conditions will certainly get at us Monday and I think its more likely we see a period of snow during the day as well. We would get a fringe benefit type of accumulation in the 1-4 inch range and just watch for some critical last second changes. The worst kind of travel conditions can be expected in eastern Mass for Monday. Wind with heavy snow and near freezing temperatures are some of the worst winter storm conditions to drive in. Any snow will certainly be over in Vermont by Monday evening and should wind down in eastern Mass after 8 PM Monday. 

We can expect some chilly temperatures to go along with the strong winds (and any snowfall for Monday). Readings are likely to hover in the high teens on the mountain. Clouds are then expected to break for a little sunshine on Tuesday though strong winds are expected to remain to go along with even colder temperatures on the mountain between 10-15. The next push of milder air moves in our direction for Wednesday but guess what, it's another fail. Just more clouds and another period of snowfall and another likely accumulation with temperatures holding in the 20's. It appears closer to the freezing mark for Thursday and Friday and yet the trajectory of the another weather system is likely going to keep readings from getting too mild. Snow or a wintry mix seems to be the most likely outcome early Friday after a mostly dry Thursday. 

The weekend consisting of the last day of February and the first day of March appears mild. Even with the adverse EPO however, models are building up an impressive area of arctic air in Canada and some of that is expected to reach New England in early March. Enough I think to keep the winter weather coming. Some milder March-like temperatures are then possible later that week. 

 

 

Late Friday snow looks better with 8-12 expected during the overnight and a little more early Saturday

Thursday turned into an outstanding bluebird day with comfortable temperatures and low wind. Even with readings challenging the freezing mark, the low dewpoints ensure that the snowpack remains mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, the pattern out west has finally allowed for some much needed snowfall and it's been widespread enough to impact multiple states and mountain ranges. Snowfall out west is absolutely vital not only for the water supply but also for electricity generation and  it has to happen now since precipitation in many places gets pretty rare by late spring. Though the pattern has turned, favoring more snow out west and less cold in eastern North America, Vermont is set up for a nice snowfall late on Friday and this update serves to clarify what we can expect. 

The clear skies are expected to continue through at least part of Thursday night allowing temperatures to drop into the low teens. Friday should then consist of some early sunshine before overcast conditions prevail for a good part of the ski day. Our approaching storm appears a little stronger and its certainly quite a beast for folks living within the vicinity of Lake Superior where blizzard conditions have been reported. For us, a decent plume of overunning moisture is headed in our direction and snow should begin within an hour or so of 6 pm Friday. The snow looks heavier and we can expect healthy snowfall rates throughout the evening and well into the overnight. This makes the upcoming Saturday one of the best ski days of the year with 8-12 inches of fresh powder expected by daybreak and perhaps another 2-3 inches before noon Saturday. Flurries could certainly continue into Saturday afternoon, though it primarily appears cloudy with readings in the low 20's on the mountain and northeast winds gusting 10-20 mph. 

A new area of low pressure is expected to form and then strengthen on Sunday eventually moving off the North Carolina coast midday Sunday. This trajectory will keep the snowfall south and west of Vermont on Sunday barring a change. The decaying Great Lakes storm will take up a position in the eastern Great Lakes Sunday and concentrate some light snowfall in that region. Northern New England may actually see some sunshine and this would help boost temperatures from single digit temperatures early in the morning to 30 degrees in the afternoon. The storm will continue to strengthen offshore leaving us with a blustery but seasonable Monday with a mixture of clouds and some limited sun to go along with snow flurries. Tuesday is a slightly colder version of Monday with day time temperatures staying in the teens. Much of the arctic air gets close to New England in this time frame but the core of the cold stays north as it often does with the angrier Pacific jet stream. 

A push of milder air in the middle part of the week could once again fail to deliver a meaningful thaw while possibly bringing us some additional snowfall. The end of next week appears colder with a lower risk of any thaw while seasonable temperatures appear more likely. The first 7-10 days of March continues to appear slightly mild, driven mostly by the lack of high latitude blocking and the positive EPO. The signal is glaring enough to suggest a big melt off however and arctic cold in Canada is indicated to be close enough to keep the door open for some snowfall. 

 

We miss on the first chance for snow on Wednesday while snow late on Friday into Saturday appears more likely

36 hours helped clear the proverbial fog out of the forecast and provide a relatively clear road map to the active weather picture that confronts us over the next 5 days. There's a potential storm to discuss for the end of the upcoming weekend which could push east somewhat innocently over the ocean or eventually become a massive east coast hit in some way. Without the help of a friendly EPO which we've had for much of the season it will be a changeable weather scene in Vermont for the last few days of February and into early March. 

Turns out Wednesday will be a dry day after all.Certainly a lot better than the thaw that had threatened this part of the forecast period for some time. The snow won't be far from us, a narrow corridor falling mostly in the Berkshires and perhaps as far north as extreme southern Vermont. Dry air will win the day in northern Vermont and so much so, that skies are now expected to clear for the latter part of the ski day providing us with a nice clear view of the sunset for Wednesday evening when temperatures are expected to drop to near 10 degrees. The drier and less cloudy trend in the outlook continues through Thursday which is now expected to be mostly bluebird with readings up around 30 degrees on the mountain along with very little wind. Short of a new snowfall, this is an excellent way to avoid the milder temperatures I had been worried about. 

New snowfall is expected before the upcoming weekend. Friday will actually start with a bit of sunshine and temperatures in the teens before clouds overspread all of Vermont and snow begins likely just around the end of the ski day. The system responsible will get a bit stretched out upon its approach with part of the storm trying to reposition in coastal New England, with the original system slowly pushing eastward in the northern Great Lakes region. We should not expect an epic snow event out of this. The initial period should provide us with the heaviest accumulation Friday evening, likely on the order of 3-6 inches. Additional light snow during the day Saturday will certainly help however and bring total storm accumulations over 5 inches though some adjustments to these expectations are likely as we get closer to the event. The mountains should stay safe from any wetter snowfall with readings remaining in the 20's. 

The stretched out nature of this initial storm will turn the Saturday weather map into a rather messy conglomeration of weaker low pressure areas with no real consolidated areas of precipitation. Model consensus or blend of models suggests this to change as the jet stream becomes more amplified on Sunday. A more well defined area of low pressure is expected to develop in southern Virginia, or close to that and potentially detonate as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. The storm could prove to be another big hit for coastal big cities, move out over the Atlantic Ocean with a smaller impact or turn north, as some storms do, and become a hit for interior New England. The former two scenarios would not have us get additional snowfall save for a little lingering snow Saturday night. The weekend is safe from any milder temperatures and so are the first three days of next week through Wednesday, February 25th. Some arctic air is expected to make its way into northern New England in the wake of this storm by late on Monday with most of that ski day getting blustery. As I mentioned, this is a changeable weather pattern with milder temperatures possible late next week though models have yet to get conclusive about any potential push of milder air. 

I expect the first week of March to feature at least some milder weather thanks to the EPO and the bottleneck of cold in  western Canada. Mostly it's because March is typically like that unless you get some help from a very supportive weather pattern. I will say for early March that arctic air is expected to encompass most of western and central Canada through at least March 5th and the warm signal over Vermont is present but pretty weak. It's a setup that would allow for a day or two of milder weather as I mentioned while at the same time include more wintry weather and snowfall. March in Vermont !