A healthy dose of mixed precipitation fell over Vermont Sunday night into early Monday and by Monday afternoon, the warmest part of this storm will be behind us. As expected, a coastal low pressure center has formed and was re-concentrating the precipitation across much of New England Monday. Between 6-9 pm Monday evening, the lower troposphere should become cold enough to support all snow across northern Vermont and though the heaviest precipitation will be east of the state, 1-2 modest periods of snow should allow for a couple inches by Tuesday morning New Years Eve. Light snow is expected to then continue through the early part of the day followed by some clearing in the later part of the day. Across the valley locations, temperatures will hover close to the freezing mark from Monday through Monday night into early Tuesday. A little sun Tuesday afternoon will likely boost readings past 35 across the low lying areas leaving only the high country as the only locations to consistently remain sub-freezing. A disturbance associated with the now ancient upper level system (ex Dakota blizzard) will bring clouds and more snow showers back to Vermont Tuesday night, just as we approach the dawning of a new decade. This area of snow showers has some potential and I am fully expecting another accumulation by dawn on New Years Day with snow showers and flurries continuing throughout the day.
In accumulation speak, our expectations are roughly the same but with some fine tuned specifics.
2-4 inches Monday night
0-1 Tuesday morning
Sun Tuesday afternoon
2-4 Tuesday night
1-2 Wednesday
This applies to the high country above 2000 feet. Valley locations will get lesser amounts and gloppier amounts of whatever falls.
We can anticipate a drier Thursday with some sunshine and comfortable temperatures that are again expected to exceed the 30-degree mark. Clouds and moisture will then advance back into the region Friday as low pressure organizes in the lower Mississippi Valley and advances northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes. Some uncertainly remains regarding the eventual outcome of this storm which is expected to impact the region late Friday into the weekend. None of the possible outcomes appears especially appetizing though due to the lack of cold air and a less than optimal storm track. The best outcome for us would be for low pressure to again form along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and confine much of the rain and extreme warmth well to our south. The newly released American model is suggesting such and is indicating a near non-event (precipitation-wise) for northern Vermont. Other indications suggest a bit of rain Friday evening. Colder air Saturday night into Sunday should then allow for another period of snow showers with a possible accumulation.
I continue to think the 4-day period between Sunday January 5th and at least Thursday January 9th has some "wintry" potential. Temperatures should stay well below freezing during this stretch and there have been hints (though inconsistent hint) of a significant snow.
Overall however, the weather pattern through the first half of January continues to look lousy with an "evil empire" type ridge in the Pacific and a very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic regions. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index which measures the latter is forecast to surge to +3 in about a week and only very gradually subside (if at all) thereafter. We could certainly use some help from a cycling of the MJO, which for the first half of January will remain in some milder eastern North America phases. It won't persist forever, but it is another reason why a more persistent cold and snow outlook across interior New England is not my expectation through the first 3 weeks of January.
Monday, December 30, 2019
Saturday, December 28, 2019
New Years system to produce ! Some basebuilding stuff at least and likely a bit more from snow showers
Temperatures are mild across the state of Vermont as of early Saturday but the news is good with the upcoming winter storm. And yes, I am happy to report we can call it a "winter storm". The weekend weather will not at all be impacted by the upcoming weather system. As noted, Saturday will be mild and feature some sunshine with temperatures up around 40. Sunday will also feature a bit of sun in the morning but more clouds in the afternoon and it won't be quite as mild with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark across much of the northern Vermont high country.
The upcoming storm remains a forecasting challenge but the outlook continues to move toward a colder system overall; enough that, rain should no longer be any part of any forecast vocabulary, at least from the MRV on northward. That said, precipitation type remains a question at times and may depend on the precipitation intensity more than anything else. Such precipitation will arrive within a few hours of midnight Sunday night and thanks to a healthy push of dry Canadian cold weather, temperatures at the surface should be at or below freezing. Above the surface to about 9,000 feet, temperatures appear to be marginal in the period between midnight Monday and noon Monday. Given that, a mix of snow and sleet appears to be the most likely outcome with more snow falling when precipitation is heaviest and more sleet when it's lighter.
The storm as a whole will undergo quite a metamorphosis, making news as a full-blown blizzard over parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas before weakening as it makes its eastern seaboard approach. It will be a slow process, but ultimately, another low pressure system is expected to take shape by Monday evening and gradually move northeast along the New England coast Monday night into New Years eve. We have to consider ourselves quite fortunate if this is indeed the evolution, because this 2nd system will thwart any intrusion of mild air and might even deliver a period of decent snowfall to the region Monday night following what might be a break in the action Monday afternoon (when it should just remain cloudy with temperatures near 30). The initial weakening storm has a large pool of instability that is eventually expected to deliver an extended period where snow showers or light snow can be expected. This period should begin sometime on New Years Eve and extend New Years Day.
At this point, I think its reasonable to expect 2-5 inches of a dense snow/sleet conglomeration early Monday and an additional 4-8 inches of fluffier, elevation sensitive snow New Years Eve and New Years Day. There is more upside potential with the developing coastal system as well. Though not a current part of our expectations, were we to get some of that snow, totals for the storm could approach a foot.
We still are not expecting an arctic cold in the wake of this storm. Temperatures will remain above normal in spite of the snow showers New Years Day and more sunshine will boost readings up toward the freezing mark on the 2nd. More subtropical moisture associated with a disorganized area of storminess will approach Friday and will likely bring some type of precipitation back to the region. Without much in the way of arctic cold to work with, our best hope is that this storminess stays disorganized and thus we might avoid a more assertive push of mild weather.
I still can't speak too highly of the pattern for the first half of Jan 2020, but we can still expect a temporary stretch of cold weather between Sunday the 5th and Wednesday the 8th of Jan. Hopefully there is some room in that window for another snow producing system.
The upcoming storm remains a forecasting challenge but the outlook continues to move toward a colder system overall; enough that, rain should no longer be any part of any forecast vocabulary, at least from the MRV on northward. That said, precipitation type remains a question at times and may depend on the precipitation intensity more than anything else. Such precipitation will arrive within a few hours of midnight Sunday night and thanks to a healthy push of dry Canadian cold weather, temperatures at the surface should be at or below freezing. Above the surface to about 9,000 feet, temperatures appear to be marginal in the period between midnight Monday and noon Monday. Given that, a mix of snow and sleet appears to be the most likely outcome with more snow falling when precipitation is heaviest and more sleet when it's lighter.
The storm as a whole will undergo quite a metamorphosis, making news as a full-blown blizzard over parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas before weakening as it makes its eastern seaboard approach. It will be a slow process, but ultimately, another low pressure system is expected to take shape by Monday evening and gradually move northeast along the New England coast Monday night into New Years eve. We have to consider ourselves quite fortunate if this is indeed the evolution, because this 2nd system will thwart any intrusion of mild air and might even deliver a period of decent snowfall to the region Monday night following what might be a break in the action Monday afternoon (when it should just remain cloudy with temperatures near 30). The initial weakening storm has a large pool of instability that is eventually expected to deliver an extended period where snow showers or light snow can be expected. This period should begin sometime on New Years Eve and extend New Years Day.
At this point, I think its reasonable to expect 2-5 inches of a dense snow/sleet conglomeration early Monday and an additional 4-8 inches of fluffier, elevation sensitive snow New Years Eve and New Years Day. There is more upside potential with the developing coastal system as well. Though not a current part of our expectations, were we to get some of that snow, totals for the storm could approach a foot.
We still are not expecting an arctic cold in the wake of this storm. Temperatures will remain above normal in spite of the snow showers New Years Day and more sunshine will boost readings up toward the freezing mark on the 2nd. More subtropical moisture associated with a disorganized area of storminess will approach Friday and will likely bring some type of precipitation back to the region. Without much in the way of arctic cold to work with, our best hope is that this storminess stays disorganized and thus we might avoid a more assertive push of mild weather.
I still can't speak too highly of the pattern for the first half of Jan 2020, but we can still expect a temporary stretch of cold weather between Sunday the 5th and Wednesday the 8th of Jan. Hopefully there is some room in that window for another snow producing system.
Thursday, December 26, 2019
Adverse overall pattern remains a problem but some good news has emerged in spite of it all
There are no signs that the weather pattern will provide us with any love on the whole but some positive developments have emerged nonetheless, at least relative to what was thrown out in the last update. We still have some milder temperatures to work through over the next few days and this includes just a bit of freezing rain and rain Thursday night into early Friday. Most of the actual ski day Friday will be precipitation-free with temperatures in the upper 30's or low 40's. Visibility should improve a bit for Saturday but temperatures will remain balmy for Vermont, reaching at least 35 most places and upper 20's across the high summits.
Our big weather system remains on-target for late Sunday into early next week. The ski-day on Sunday actually looks rain-free and may even feature some morning sunshine. Temperatures will remain on the mild side of average (30's mostly) and minimal wind should make for a comfortable day on the hill. Snow will be falling with this system Sunday but mostly over central and northern Minnesota. The news is not all bad with this weather system however. Though precipitation will arrive as rain on Sunday evening, the initial snow-producing low pressure system over Minnesota & Wisconsin will begin to dissipate and so will the northward push of mild air up the eastern seaboard. Actually, it will be the colder, drier air that will battle back Sunday night and re-configure our temperature cross section in a more favorable direction by the early to middle part of Monday. Precipitation is likely to then change back to snow and the question relates to how much available lingering moisture will fall as snow from midday Monday into New Years Eve. Quite possibly we could receive several inches across the high country before the clock strikes 2020 but the jury remains out regarding very specific amounts.
Though this aforementioned storm appears colder for us, it remains devoid of series arctic chill both as the event is ongoing and in its wake on the first two days of the year. Snow showers and flurries will linger into New Years Day but only with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing during the day and 20's during the night. The summits should be cold enough throughout for any accumulating snow to be powder. The lack of cold air will present another challenge when the next storm impacts the region very late next week. It will require a very optimal track for a snowy result across Vermont and there are growing indications that the result might be something other than snowy. A lot can happen and change in over a week so stay tuned on that.
As mentioned, I can't speak fondly about the overall pattern. It remains unblocked at high latitudes and ripe for an easy surrender to an intense Pacific Jet stream. As mentioned in the last update, some of the most intense cold across northern hemisphere will at least remain over Alaska and both northern and western Canada. Close enough at least to remain a peripheral player for the first half of January even though it will hardly dominate. Ensembles are showing stronger indications of a decent cold surge beginning around January 5th with below normal temperatures prevailing through the middle part of that first full week of January. Any storm in that time frame would be snow I should think but this is way too far out for such things like promises or details.
Our big weather system remains on-target for late Sunday into early next week. The ski-day on Sunday actually looks rain-free and may even feature some morning sunshine. Temperatures will remain on the mild side of average (30's mostly) and minimal wind should make for a comfortable day on the hill. Snow will be falling with this system Sunday but mostly over central and northern Minnesota. The news is not all bad with this weather system however. Though precipitation will arrive as rain on Sunday evening, the initial snow-producing low pressure system over Minnesota & Wisconsin will begin to dissipate and so will the northward push of mild air up the eastern seaboard. Actually, it will be the colder, drier air that will battle back Sunday night and re-configure our temperature cross section in a more favorable direction by the early to middle part of Monday. Precipitation is likely to then change back to snow and the question relates to how much available lingering moisture will fall as snow from midday Monday into New Years Eve. Quite possibly we could receive several inches across the high country before the clock strikes 2020 but the jury remains out regarding very specific amounts.
Though this aforementioned storm appears colder for us, it remains devoid of series arctic chill both as the event is ongoing and in its wake on the first two days of the year. Snow showers and flurries will linger into New Years Day but only with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing during the day and 20's during the night. The summits should be cold enough throughout for any accumulating snow to be powder. The lack of cold air will present another challenge when the next storm impacts the region very late next week. It will require a very optimal track for a snowy result across Vermont and there are growing indications that the result might be something other than snowy. A lot can happen and change in over a week so stay tuned on that.
As mentioned, I can't speak fondly about the overall pattern. It remains unblocked at high latitudes and ripe for an easy surrender to an intense Pacific Jet stream. As mentioned in the last update, some of the most intense cold across northern hemisphere will at least remain over Alaska and both northern and western Canada. Close enough at least to remain a peripheral player for the first half of January even though it will hardly dominate. Ensembles are showing stronger indications of a decent cold surge beginning around January 5th with below normal temperatures prevailing through the middle part of that first full week of January. Any storm in that time frame would be snow I should think but this is way too far out for such things like promises or details.
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Not a ton of Christmas cheer in this update as we continue to fight a worsening winter weather pattern
Our forecast picture took a few uppercuts over the past few days. In the big picture, the prevailing negative fundamentals, the biggest of which being an AO and EPO index continuing to gain positive strength, are finally playing a stronger role in the regions weather locally and the forecast going forward. Rubbing a little salt in the wound is the forecast for late week which provided us with a bit of a head fake over the weekend. As of now however, much of the light snow that was beginning to appear likely Thursday night appears gone. We will have sub-freezing temperatures, good visibility, tolerable amounts of wind and some sunshine both on Xmas and on Thursday the 26th, but any light snow on Thursday night appears inconsequential (or end up falling as a wintry mix) and the milder temperatures which appeared to be only a miner threat for Friday, now appear likely with temperatures across much of the high country climbing above freezing.
Critical questions and potential problems have arisen after a tranquil Saturday the 29th. There are two major systems that could impact the east coast between Sunday 12/30 and Friday 1/3 and there are justifiable concerns regarding the first of these storms given the lack of arctic cold support. Both warm air and a lot of moisture are expected to surge northward ahead of an advancing area of low pressure Sunday in the Great Lakes region. The eventual trajectory of this storm remains a question, but if the storm tracks north of the St Lawrence Valley, it will be a disastrous wash-out across the entire state Sunday night into Monday. There are indications that the low pressure area in question travels on a more southern route, potentially re-energizing itself off the eastern seaboard. This would be a much better result but given the lack of available cold, even this result might include a bit of rain late Sunday at the onset of this event. Though colder weather is expected to return to Vermont Monday, it's Pacific Ocean air and will thus consist of well-above average temperatures. Lingering amounts of both moisture and instability could set the stage for a decent period of snow Monday but such an occurrence would be better given the latter more southern track of this storm. Either way, snow showers should persist into at least early Tuesday - New Years eve.
The longer range outlook is getting double-whammie'd by the very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic and a corresponding tight and ferocious jet stream in the Pacific (positive AO, EPO). A typical Vermont January is certainly capable of performing even in a marginal pattern; in fact, sometimes the marginal pattern outperforms a polar vortex type scenario where storms and moisture are suppressed too far south. This double-whammy is tough to overcome however, even in Vermont. If there is anything to hang our wintry hats on, its the fact that much of the most intense arctic air across the northern hemisphere will be positioned on the North American side as opposed to the Eurasian side. Though much of it will be across Alaska and NW Canada, perhaps some can find its way into select northern U.S. climates such as the interior NE. That's the positive spin admittedly but there's a negative result to this equation consisting of a forecast dominated by a much stronger torch for the first half of January. Again, that's not the indication yet but it's certainly a risk.
In the meantime, that 2nd storm discussed 2 paragraph's above appears to have an impact period between January 2nd to January 4th in Vermont if at all. Though it appears to be a colder storm for now, and a deeper east coast jet amplification, a lack of arctic cold will keep temperatures on the above side of average. We just have to hope that the lack of influence from the polar jet stream might provide the opportunity for more action along the east coast of the cyclogenesis/bombogenesis variety.
Critical questions and potential problems have arisen after a tranquil Saturday the 29th. There are two major systems that could impact the east coast between Sunday 12/30 and Friday 1/3 and there are justifiable concerns regarding the first of these storms given the lack of arctic cold support. Both warm air and a lot of moisture are expected to surge northward ahead of an advancing area of low pressure Sunday in the Great Lakes region. The eventual trajectory of this storm remains a question, but if the storm tracks north of the St Lawrence Valley, it will be a disastrous wash-out across the entire state Sunday night into Monday. There are indications that the low pressure area in question travels on a more southern route, potentially re-energizing itself off the eastern seaboard. This would be a much better result but given the lack of available cold, even this result might include a bit of rain late Sunday at the onset of this event. Though colder weather is expected to return to Vermont Monday, it's Pacific Ocean air and will thus consist of well-above average temperatures. Lingering amounts of both moisture and instability could set the stage for a decent period of snow Monday but such an occurrence would be better given the latter more southern track of this storm. Either way, snow showers should persist into at least early Tuesday - New Years eve.
The longer range outlook is getting double-whammie'd by the very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic and a corresponding tight and ferocious jet stream in the Pacific (positive AO, EPO). A typical Vermont January is certainly capable of performing even in a marginal pattern; in fact, sometimes the marginal pattern outperforms a polar vortex type scenario where storms and moisture are suppressed too far south. This double-whammy is tough to overcome however, even in Vermont. If there is anything to hang our wintry hats on, its the fact that much of the most intense arctic air across the northern hemisphere will be positioned on the North American side as opposed to the Eurasian side. Though much of it will be across Alaska and NW Canada, perhaps some can find its way into select northern U.S. climates such as the interior NE. That's the positive spin admittedly but there's a negative result to this equation consisting of a forecast dominated by a much stronger torch for the first half of January. Again, that's not the indication yet but it's certainly a risk.
In the meantime, that 2nd storm discussed 2 paragraph's above appears to have an impact period between January 2nd to January 4th in Vermont if at all. Though it appears to be a colder storm for now, and a deeper east coast jet amplification, a lack of arctic cold will keep temperatures on the above side of average. We just have to hope that the lack of influence from the polar jet stream might provide the opportunity for more action along the east coast of the cyclogenesis/bombogenesis variety.
Sunday, December 22, 2019
Not a terrific looking weather pattern to finish 2019 but it could nonetheless get interesting both in the near term and into the new year
Fundamentally speaking, there are an increasing number of adverse variables dictating the weather pattern across North America. This of course refers to the lack of support for cold and snowy conditions in Vermont as we approach another Christmas holiday. With that said, the short term weather forecast hardly looks that terrible and there are no glaring indications of a sustained blowtorch as we approach the end of 2019 and move into the early part of 2020. Instead, the pattern, though certainly not cold, appears at least capable of producing 1 or 2 interesting storms.
As mentioned the near term only consists of a mild Monday. Colder is is expected to arrive on Christmas Eve and we are not expecting any rainfall. Actually, much of Christmas Eve and Day appear to be pleasantly tranquil with at least partial sunshine and good visibility. It will be a little blustery Christmas Eve with winds around 10-15 mph but we've certainly encountered worse.
The last update discussed the possibility for snow late on Christmas Day into the 26th. We can upgrade the possibility for snowfall but we won't see any until late on the 26th. At that point, the minimal amount of cold air entrenched across interior New England should provide the overrunning surface necessary for a period of snowfall. Though snow could start as early as Thursday afternoon, it will likely be the Friday ski day which benefits the most from this. We have yet to see a total convergence of model output regarding this event but I'll call it a 60 percent chance we see a few inches Friday morning. At that point there are more diverging indications of what might occur with some indications that milder air could encroach on northern Vermont and other indications that interior New England remains cold through the start of the weekend. Following the mild start to the upcoming week, the biggest risk for a warm day and any mixed precipitation or rain appears to be either Friday 12/27 or early Saturday 12/28 though again, this is not yet conclusive.
If you follow the weather even just somewhat as religiously as I do, you might have heard about the persistent warmth in Alaska. Parts of central and northern Alaska have yet to record a below normal month in 2019 and have spent alarming amounts of time at or above record level temperatures. Over the next two weeks however, this recent trend will get thrown on its head as intense cold will settle over the state and remain there through the start of 2020. Typically, cold, arctic air in Alaska corresponds to a lack thereof in the more southern sections of North America and I expect this to be no exception. Alaskan cold also often corresponds to a more vigorous jet stream in the Pacific and ensembles continue to suggest an intensification here. Its looking more and more like an "Evil Empire" unfortunately and if I were to look the weather pattern in the eastern Pacific in isolation, I might expect a full blown blow torch across eastern North America. But the ensembles, as they have done for days, are not suggesting that at least as of yet.
There is a threat for the aforementioned warm day on the 27th or 28th but colder weather, possibly accompanied by some snowfall is possible on the 29th and 30th. After that, more mild air thwarting storminess appears likely with continued strong hints of some sort of major jet amplification along the east coast very early in 2020. Given the arctic cold in this pattern, any storm could push mixed precipitation, rain or warm weather into Vermont but at least we have a puncher's chance in a pattern where sometimes we would not.
As mentioned the near term only consists of a mild Monday. Colder is is expected to arrive on Christmas Eve and we are not expecting any rainfall. Actually, much of Christmas Eve and Day appear to be pleasantly tranquil with at least partial sunshine and good visibility. It will be a little blustery Christmas Eve with winds around 10-15 mph but we've certainly encountered worse.
The last update discussed the possibility for snow late on Christmas Day into the 26th. We can upgrade the possibility for snowfall but we won't see any until late on the 26th. At that point, the minimal amount of cold air entrenched across interior New England should provide the overrunning surface necessary for a period of snowfall. Though snow could start as early as Thursday afternoon, it will likely be the Friday ski day which benefits the most from this. We have yet to see a total convergence of model output regarding this event but I'll call it a 60 percent chance we see a few inches Friday morning. At that point there are more diverging indications of what might occur with some indications that milder air could encroach on northern Vermont and other indications that interior New England remains cold through the start of the weekend. Following the mild start to the upcoming week, the biggest risk for a warm day and any mixed precipitation or rain appears to be either Friday 12/27 or early Saturday 12/28 though again, this is not yet conclusive.
If you follow the weather even just somewhat as religiously as I do, you might have heard about the persistent warmth in Alaska. Parts of central and northern Alaska have yet to record a below normal month in 2019 and have spent alarming amounts of time at or above record level temperatures. Over the next two weeks however, this recent trend will get thrown on its head as intense cold will settle over the state and remain there through the start of 2020. Typically, cold, arctic air in Alaska corresponds to a lack thereof in the more southern sections of North America and I expect this to be no exception. Alaskan cold also often corresponds to a more vigorous jet stream in the Pacific and ensembles continue to suggest an intensification here. Its looking more and more like an "Evil Empire" unfortunately and if I were to look the weather pattern in the eastern Pacific in isolation, I might expect a full blown blow torch across eastern North America. But the ensembles, as they have done for days, are not suggesting that at least as of yet.
There is a threat for the aforementioned warm day on the 27th or 28th but colder weather, possibly accompanied by some snowfall is possible on the 29th and 30th. After that, more mild air thwarting storminess appears likely with continued strong hints of some sort of major jet amplification along the east coast very early in 2020. Given the arctic cold in this pattern, any storm could push mixed precipitation, rain or warm weather into Vermont but at least we have a puncher's chance in a pattern where sometimes we would not.
Friday, December 20, 2019
Holiday to week to start out mild, but Xmas could finish with some snow followed by seasonable winter chill
The base is still thin but at least it looks like winter across the MRV this week. Snowfall totals could have been better and I have more or less settled on the idea that this won't be a December to remember. That said, I've seen worse.
Blue sky and terrific visibility is on the way for Saturday skiing or other outdoor adventures. And yes, its nice to get one of those days on the shortest day of the year. Temperatures should top out somewhere in the 20's after starting the day near 5. Not a bad day overall considering the minimal amount of wind. Most of the clouds and moisture associated with a warm front will pass north of the VT/Canadian border Saturday night. Though we could see some flurries, I would not expect much of an accumulation. Sunday will follow with more clouds and a bit more of a breeze but with milder temperatures of up near the freezing on the mountain and above freezing in low lying areas.
As promised, Christmas week will start out mild. That being said, the milder intrusion is short lived and is not expected to be accompanied by any rain and I thus give that a moral victory given east coast climatology. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's Monday afternoon but will fall back into the 30's Christmas Eve and back below freezing Christmas Day.
Not much of a chance for new snow on Monday and Tuesday obviously but a scenario does exist late on Xmas day into the 26th for something. I would still consider it a long shot given the limited amount of available moisture, but a stronger push of Canadian air is expected to advance into New England behind a weak wave of low pressure expected to pass just to our south. Aligning the track of this feature with the aforementioned limited area of moisture is a tough ask but not an impossible one. My fair value assessment has a roughly 40 percent chance for a few inches late Christmas Day into the 26th. A modest chance but not yet probable. Temperatures should end the holiday week at seasonable levels which is below freezing. Any clouds should also dissipate by later Thursday, setting the stage for a dry and somewhat sunshiney finish to the holiday week.
There has been a lot of dissension in the longer range outlook. I haven't been especially excited from the standpoint of cold, though the American Ensemble guidance has occasionally suggested we might move toward a cold pattern. On the whole however, the long range Arctic Oscillation outlook appears to be positive indicating a mostly "unblocked" high latitude jet stream. The outlook in the Pacific also suggests an even stronger jet in the Pacific which will further limit any southward advance of extreme arctic chill. It all seems pessimistic but we are entering the time of the year where it's not necessarily such a good thing to get overwhelmed with arctic air. By simply avoiding an all-out torch, it might be possible to garner a few intriguing weather situations out of this upcoming pattern. The subtropical or southern branch of the jet stream appears formidable and multiple simulations seem to suggest the possibility of a big east coast storm sometime during the first few days of 2020. Another 1-2 days of milder weather is also possible in this pattern. Though this appears most likely just before the New Years 2020 this is not etched in stone and models going out that far have shown varying scenarios.
Blue sky and terrific visibility is on the way for Saturday skiing or other outdoor adventures. And yes, its nice to get one of those days on the shortest day of the year. Temperatures should top out somewhere in the 20's after starting the day near 5. Not a bad day overall considering the minimal amount of wind. Most of the clouds and moisture associated with a warm front will pass north of the VT/Canadian border Saturday night. Though we could see some flurries, I would not expect much of an accumulation. Sunday will follow with more clouds and a bit more of a breeze but with milder temperatures of up near the freezing on the mountain and above freezing in low lying areas.
As promised, Christmas week will start out mild. That being said, the milder intrusion is short lived and is not expected to be accompanied by any rain and I thus give that a moral victory given east coast climatology. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's Monday afternoon but will fall back into the 30's Christmas Eve and back below freezing Christmas Day.
Not much of a chance for new snow on Monday and Tuesday obviously but a scenario does exist late on Xmas day into the 26th for something. I would still consider it a long shot given the limited amount of available moisture, but a stronger push of Canadian air is expected to advance into New England behind a weak wave of low pressure expected to pass just to our south. Aligning the track of this feature with the aforementioned limited area of moisture is a tough ask but not an impossible one. My fair value assessment has a roughly 40 percent chance for a few inches late Christmas Day into the 26th. A modest chance but not yet probable. Temperatures should end the holiday week at seasonable levels which is below freezing. Any clouds should also dissipate by later Thursday, setting the stage for a dry and somewhat sunshiney finish to the holiday week.
There has been a lot of dissension in the longer range outlook. I haven't been especially excited from the standpoint of cold, though the American Ensemble guidance has occasionally suggested we might move toward a cold pattern. On the whole however, the long range Arctic Oscillation outlook appears to be positive indicating a mostly "unblocked" high latitude jet stream. The outlook in the Pacific also suggests an even stronger jet in the Pacific which will further limit any southward advance of extreme arctic chill. It all seems pessimistic but we are entering the time of the year where it's not necessarily such a good thing to get overwhelmed with arctic air. By simply avoiding an all-out torch, it might be possible to garner a few intriguing weather situations out of this upcoming pattern. The subtropical or southern branch of the jet stream appears formidable and multiple simulations seem to suggest the possibility of a big east coast storm sometime during the first few days of 2020. Another 1-2 days of milder weather is also possible in this pattern. Though this appears most likely just before the New Years 2020 this is not etched in stone and models going out that far have shown varying scenarios.
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Wintry week to finish cold but some milder air has entered the forecast picture in the days leading up to Xmas
We endured the brief scare that our current December 17th storm might not deliver, but it has provided most of what was advertised and has restored some winter scenery to our beloved Vermont landscape. December will not go down as a particularly arctic month but the coldest weather of the month will nonetheless make its appearance, brought in by a potent jet impulse Wednesday evening. The disturbance will also bring snow showers and squalls to the northern Vermont high country just as the Wednesday ski day is winding down. The event will be short-lived, but a few good bursts of snow should provide 1-4 inches of wind driven snow to the high country around the MRV and possibly a bit more from Stowe northward to the Canadian border. The week is expected to finish on the dry but cold side with temperatures below zero Thursday and Friday morning in many places while afternoon readings are only in the single numbers Thursday and 15 on Friday.
Though Friday is expected to be pretty sunny across the region as a whole, the weekend will feature more clouds but with moderating temperatures. There are hints that the push of more milder air could be the catalyst for a period of light snow Saturday but that remains to be seen. On Sunday we could see temperatures get pretty close to the freezing mark and likely exceed across some of the low lying areas.
The pattern for Christmas week now looks pretty well-defined. Though I wouldn't describe it as terrible, it certainly doesn't look particularly ideal. Much of the country's unsettled weather will be focused on California and the southern Rockies. The San Juan Mountains appear to be in line for a extra merry Christmas in 2019. The weather east of the Mississippi River appears quite mild. Interior New England will be one of the final hold outs this weekend we too can expect at least a day of milder temperatures on the mountain. Fortunately it only appears to be a 24-36 hour occurrence (Monday into Christmas eve) and one not accompanied by a significant amount of mixed precipitation or rain.
As the week progresses, there are continued signs that the ridge in the jet stream responsible for the milder weather will weaken and allow colder air to sink southward into interior New England. The question relates to what actual weather will accompany this push of colder weather on the 26th and 27th of the month. Some of the aforementioned storminess out west appears likely to push eastward toward the upper Midwest. Might some of this moisture end up falling as some late-week or weekend (December 28-29) snow in Vermont ? Quite possibly but the pattern does not support any notion of a big storm. Beyond that, there are continued signs of both storminess across the country and cold air focused on the western United States. In the preseason outlook, I highlighted the blob of ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific south of the Gulf of Alaska. For now it seems like a preferred location for a jet stream ridge which is not entirely ideal but again, we've seen worse patterns, especially around the holidays.
Though Friday is expected to be pretty sunny across the region as a whole, the weekend will feature more clouds but with moderating temperatures. There are hints that the push of more milder air could be the catalyst for a period of light snow Saturday but that remains to be seen. On Sunday we could see temperatures get pretty close to the freezing mark and likely exceed across some of the low lying areas.
The pattern for Christmas week now looks pretty well-defined. Though I wouldn't describe it as terrible, it certainly doesn't look particularly ideal. Much of the country's unsettled weather will be focused on California and the southern Rockies. The San Juan Mountains appear to be in line for a extra merry Christmas in 2019. The weather east of the Mississippi River appears quite mild. Interior New England will be one of the final hold outs this weekend we too can expect at least a day of milder temperatures on the mountain. Fortunately it only appears to be a 24-36 hour occurrence (Monday into Christmas eve) and one not accompanied by a significant amount of mixed precipitation or rain.
As the week progresses, there are continued signs that the ridge in the jet stream responsible for the milder weather will weaken and allow colder air to sink southward into interior New England. The question relates to what actual weather will accompany this push of colder weather on the 26th and 27th of the month. Some of the aforementioned storminess out west appears likely to push eastward toward the upper Midwest. Might some of this moisture end up falling as some late-week or weekend (December 28-29) snow in Vermont ? Quite possibly but the pattern does not support any notion of a big storm. Beyond that, there are continued signs of both storminess across the country and cold air focused on the western United States. In the preseason outlook, I highlighted the blob of ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific south of the Gulf of Alaska. For now it seems like a preferred location for a jet stream ridge which is not entirely ideal but again, we've seen worse patterns, especially around the holidays.
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Can't promise anything epic over the next two weeks but it does look wintry with several natural snowfall opportunities
Snow showers across the northern Vermont high country Sunday will provide a small accumulation of snow, especially as one nears the Canadian border but it will fall well short of what is needed for a full scale replenishment. It was a really bad December week across all of Vermont and honestly I am just happy it's over. The upcoming week should feature dramatic improvements with temperatures staying in the sub-freezing territory, as advertised, along with two decent opportunities for natural snowfall.
Temperatures are expected to hover just below the freezing mark throughout a blustery Sunday across the high country before falling through the twenties and teens Sunday night. Winds are expected to subside somewhat by Monday morning and visibility should improve dramatically along with morning temperatures of near 10 and afternoon readings only in the 20's. The southern branch of the jet stream will deliver for us as needed, and provide the region with a garden variety snow event on Tuesday. Clouds should advance back into the region Monday night and snow should be falling across most of the state by daybreak Tuesday. Though the storm will successfully gather a modest amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it will remain a flat wave as the associated area of low pressure moves from the southern Pennsylvania border, quickly to the eastern tip of Long Island by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate snow for much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening should allow a healthy swatch of 5-10 inches of snow across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts across the central and southern Vermont high country. The MRV should get its fair share of this all powdery snow event as temperatures generally hover in the high teens.
There is a polar kicker that is expected to follow this southern branch feature on Wednesday. Unfortunately the two systems could never fully link and allow for some real east coast excitement. The consolation prize however isn't bad since snow showers should be enhanced by a favorable wind direction off Lake Champlain, especially Wednesday afternoon, evening and night. An additional 3-6 inches of elevation sensitive fluff in this time frame should make Thursday one of the better ski days of the season for much of northern Vermont in spite of some modest cold. Temperatures will spend much of Wednesday near the 20-degree mark but will be forced down near zero by Thursday morning and only rise to near 10 degrees Thursday afternoon with only limited amounts of very low-angled sunshine and stiff northwest winds. Friday should feature more sunshine, less wind and afternoon temperatures closer to 20.
The early part of our upcoming solstice weekend appears dry and could possibly feature a decent amounts of sun. The Sunday-Monday (Dec 22-23) time frame should feature some sort of east coast intrigue. Early indications suggest that the epicenter of action will be focused on areas south of Vermont and closer to the coast but the situation bears watching since the jet stream is expected to soften somewhat behind it which often leaves the door open for all sorts of unexpected scenarios.
Much of the United States can anticipate a relatively mild Christmas holiday this year. The two exceptions would be the ski country across the western U.S. and ski country across interior New England - that be us. Though it certainly doesn't appear to be intensely cold during the period between December 24-27, it does appear that conditions should remain wintry and northern New England will be one of those few places where snowfall is at least possible. Fingers crossed on that but I should think that would be considered a relatively satisfying piece of news all things considered. Onward and upward from here lets hope !
Temperatures are expected to hover just below the freezing mark throughout a blustery Sunday across the high country before falling through the twenties and teens Sunday night. Winds are expected to subside somewhat by Monday morning and visibility should improve dramatically along with morning temperatures of near 10 and afternoon readings only in the 20's. The southern branch of the jet stream will deliver for us as needed, and provide the region with a garden variety snow event on Tuesday. Clouds should advance back into the region Monday night and snow should be falling across most of the state by daybreak Tuesday. Though the storm will successfully gather a modest amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it will remain a flat wave as the associated area of low pressure moves from the southern Pennsylvania border, quickly to the eastern tip of Long Island by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate snow for much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening should allow a healthy swatch of 5-10 inches of snow across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts across the central and southern Vermont high country. The MRV should get its fair share of this all powdery snow event as temperatures generally hover in the high teens.
There is a polar kicker that is expected to follow this southern branch feature on Wednesday. Unfortunately the two systems could never fully link and allow for some real east coast excitement. The consolation prize however isn't bad since snow showers should be enhanced by a favorable wind direction off Lake Champlain, especially Wednesday afternoon, evening and night. An additional 3-6 inches of elevation sensitive fluff in this time frame should make Thursday one of the better ski days of the season for much of northern Vermont in spite of some modest cold. Temperatures will spend much of Wednesday near the 20-degree mark but will be forced down near zero by Thursday morning and only rise to near 10 degrees Thursday afternoon with only limited amounts of very low-angled sunshine and stiff northwest winds. Friday should feature more sunshine, less wind and afternoon temperatures closer to 20.
The early part of our upcoming solstice weekend appears dry and could possibly feature a decent amounts of sun. The Sunday-Monday (Dec 22-23) time frame should feature some sort of east coast intrigue. Early indications suggest that the epicenter of action will be focused on areas south of Vermont and closer to the coast but the situation bears watching since the jet stream is expected to soften somewhat behind it which often leaves the door open for all sorts of unexpected scenarios.
Much of the United States can anticipate a relatively mild Christmas holiday this year. The two exceptions would be the ski country across the western U.S. and ski country across interior New England - that be us. Though it certainly doesn't appear to be intensely cold during the period between December 24-27, it does appear that conditions should remain wintry and northern New England will be one of those few places where snowfall is at least possible. Fingers crossed on that but I should think that would be considered a relatively satisfying piece of news all things considered. Onward and upward from here lets hope !
Thursday, December 12, 2019
With Saturday's washout all but guaranteed, we can start focus on a better, colder looking next week
Best news I have relates to next week, when at the very least, it appears more likely that we immerse ourselves in a more extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. We can also continue to hope for some new snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday and perhaps beyond that as well. In the meantime, we have Saturday's event to get through. This, like the last event has more than likely become another sunk cost in a sunk week of weather. It is a strong area of low pressure, which will originate near the Gulf Coast and eventually track very close to if not over the state of Vermont. I remain convinced that a similar event a bit later in the season would provide way more intrigue but this storm will suck too much marine Atlantic Ocean warmth into interior New England and the lower troposphere will simply be too warm regardless of elevation. The MRV could receive a bit of light snow or mixed precipitation Friday evening with temperatures near the freezing mark but temperatures are expected to rise Friday night and remain in the middle or upper 30's throughout much of the day Saturday when steadier and sometimes heavier rain is falling. The rain should be done with by late Friday evening and an infusion of colder and a pool of instability aloft will allow for occasional snow across the high country early Sunday. Mad River Glen can expect a few inches from this but the near westerly winds favor better snows in the far northern Green Mountains.
Indeed, the view of next week is at least more satisfactory. It does start with temperatures which should stay below the freezing mark beginning Sunday night and persisting through Sunday, December 22. That's at least 7 days if you are keeping score at home. The snowfall outlook is starting to look more promising as well. Models are converging on idea of a southern branch storm gathering some moisture this upcoming Sunday and Monday and proceeding northeast toward the southern New England coastline. The storm lacks that one dynamic polar kick and may thus pass as a flat wave but will nonetheless have some moisture and should result in a modest 5-10 inch much needed snowfall.
I am actually more encouraged with how the outlook appears to be evolving later in the week. Though we are contending with a strengthening polar jet (as predicted) in this time frame, the longer range models have actually done a poor job at high latitudes. To put it in familiar words, rumors of the negative AO's demise have been greatly exaggerated. One of the more glaring results of this forecast "miss" has been the persistent intense cold over north-central Canada this week and continuing into next week. It has allowed the recent slow advance of ice in the Hudson Bay and Northwest Passages to become a fast advance and in the case of the Hudson Bay, should allow for a complete freeze-over in the next few days. All of this said, jet stream in the Pacific is still strengthy and is likely to prevent any of the aforementioned cold to make a full-scale mid-latitude intrusion but Vermont is far enough north I think to feel a bit of its impact. What I really like is the impact that the polar jet might have on Vermont's snowfall outlook later next week given its closer proximity. So in addition to what we hope will be some modest snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, we should see some additional snowfall later in the week and into the weekend from at least one clipper-like system.
Heading toward Christmas, the 3 ensemble packages continue to yield mixed messages. None indicate extreme cold but only the European is maintaining the positive PDO, intense Pacific jet stream. There is agreement on an active pattern with cold and storminess focused on the west but again, there is no strong indication of El Torchy conditions in the east. Temperatures look just slightly above normal and the pattern should remain active with at least one storm to talk about Christmas week (Dec 23-27). Weather twitter has been discussing the GFS ensembles today at length. They do show an enhancement of high latitude blocking after Christmas which could set the stage for a colder pattern in January but such a pattern continues to be beyond the foreseeable horizon for now and is certainly not supported by our other favorite simulators.
Indeed, the view of next week is at least more satisfactory. It does start with temperatures which should stay below the freezing mark beginning Sunday night and persisting through Sunday, December 22. That's at least 7 days if you are keeping score at home. The snowfall outlook is starting to look more promising as well. Models are converging on idea of a southern branch storm gathering some moisture this upcoming Sunday and Monday and proceeding northeast toward the southern New England coastline. The storm lacks that one dynamic polar kick and may thus pass as a flat wave but will nonetheless have some moisture and should result in a modest 5-10 inch much needed snowfall.
I am actually more encouraged with how the outlook appears to be evolving later in the week. Though we are contending with a strengthening polar jet (as predicted) in this time frame, the longer range models have actually done a poor job at high latitudes. To put it in familiar words, rumors of the negative AO's demise have been greatly exaggerated. One of the more glaring results of this forecast "miss" has been the persistent intense cold over north-central Canada this week and continuing into next week. It has allowed the recent slow advance of ice in the Hudson Bay and Northwest Passages to become a fast advance and in the case of the Hudson Bay, should allow for a complete freeze-over in the next few days. All of this said, jet stream in the Pacific is still strengthy and is likely to prevent any of the aforementioned cold to make a full-scale mid-latitude intrusion but Vermont is far enough north I think to feel a bit of its impact. What I really like is the impact that the polar jet might have on Vermont's snowfall outlook later next week given its closer proximity. So in addition to what we hope will be some modest snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, we should see some additional snowfall later in the week and into the weekend from at least one clipper-like system.
Heading toward Christmas, the 3 ensemble packages continue to yield mixed messages. None indicate extreme cold but only the European is maintaining the positive PDO, intense Pacific jet stream. There is agreement on an active pattern with cold and storminess focused on the west but again, there is no strong indication of El Torchy conditions in the east. Temperatures look just slightly above normal and the pattern should remain active with at least one storm to talk about Christmas week (Dec 23-27). Weather twitter has been discussing the GFS ensembles today at length. They do show an enhancement of high latitude blocking after Christmas which could set the stage for a colder pattern in January but such a pattern continues to be beyond the foreseeable horizon for now and is certainly not supported by our other favorite simulators.
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
No good news regarding weekend storm but next week does look better
Winter-like temps are ready to or have already (depending on when you read this update) returned to the MRV. We didn't receive a tremendous amount of rain but it certainly got quite mild and that was accompanied by a rather persistent southwesterly wind. Snowpack across the state took the expected hit and we will have to wait several days for significant amounts of natural snow to return. To put it plainly, this is simply a bad week for Vermont skiing but somewhat par for the course if one is to look at it from a December inVermont climatology perspective. That same perspective would also suggest that the weather failures of the current week would rid our system of such occurrences for the rest of the month. Time will tell if that is the case. As of know, the early look at Xmas week is mixed and could go in either direction.
I don't have any good news regarding the weekend. An entirely disappointing looking storm to say the least. Of particular frustration relates to the track of this potent, sub-tropical originating system, which appears destined to track somewhere over eastern New England (this is usually very good for us). The eventual track will certainly have an impact on where temperatures end up on Saturday but precipitation type will be predominantly rain. Perhaps if a similar storm should impact the region several weeks from we would see a more snowy result but the early maturation of this storm and the lack of a fresh supply of cold air will allow the still relatively warm Atlantic Ocean air to advance well into interior New England. We need to shave about 2 or 3 degrees off the entire lowest mile of the atmosphere to make to make the situation more interesting but that appears unlikely at this point. Rain or some freezing rain is likely to arrive in the morning on Saturday and continue for much of the day, possibly getting quite heavy for a time before abating sometime during the evening. Temperatures should hold steady Saturday in the middle to high 30's. There is a healthy cold pool of air associated with this system which will allow snow showers to return Sunday to the high country of Vermont along with gusty winds. Wind direction suggests the highest amounts of accumulating snow will be across the far north and maybe 1-3 inches at MRG.
The news does get better after that however. There is more activity in the southern branch of the jet stream next week and another storm appears likely to follow Saturday's only this one is likely to take a more favorable track and have more cold air to work with. I don't want to get folks too excited about this right now with models indicating varying results and rather strongly suggest, as of now, that the storm will remain at least slightly out of phase with some incoming polar energy during the middle of the week. At the very least however, there does appear to be some storm/snowfall potential Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Much of the entire week should also see predominantly sub-freezing temperatures although it might be a little premature to say that definitively.
The Christmas holiday outlook as of now appears mixed as mentioned. There continue to be indications of a strengthening jet stream in the Pacific quantified by a positive EPO. A warm signal is being indicated for a time across much of eastern North America in the days just prior to Christmas. That being said, that Pacific jet stream is expected to fall short of "evil empire" standards and the pattern is expected to remain stormy enough, particularly the southern branch of the stream, to keep the weather picture interesting. One thing we are unlikely to see for the rest of 2019 is a massive intrusion of intense arctic cold. The cold we do see will be much like the next few days - shortlived and isolated to the northern latitudes of the United States and not especially intense.
I don't have any good news regarding the weekend. An entirely disappointing looking storm to say the least. Of particular frustration relates to the track of this potent, sub-tropical originating system, which appears destined to track somewhere over eastern New England (this is usually very good for us). The eventual track will certainly have an impact on where temperatures end up on Saturday but precipitation type will be predominantly rain. Perhaps if a similar storm should impact the region several weeks from we would see a more snowy result but the early maturation of this storm and the lack of a fresh supply of cold air will allow the still relatively warm Atlantic Ocean air to advance well into interior New England. We need to shave about 2 or 3 degrees off the entire lowest mile of the atmosphere to make to make the situation more interesting but that appears unlikely at this point. Rain or some freezing rain is likely to arrive in the morning on Saturday and continue for much of the day, possibly getting quite heavy for a time before abating sometime during the evening. Temperatures should hold steady Saturday in the middle to high 30's. There is a healthy cold pool of air associated with this system which will allow snow showers to return Sunday to the high country of Vermont along with gusty winds. Wind direction suggests the highest amounts of accumulating snow will be across the far north and maybe 1-3 inches at MRG.
The news does get better after that however. There is more activity in the southern branch of the jet stream next week and another storm appears likely to follow Saturday's only this one is likely to take a more favorable track and have more cold air to work with. I don't want to get folks too excited about this right now with models indicating varying results and rather strongly suggest, as of now, that the storm will remain at least slightly out of phase with some incoming polar energy during the middle of the week. At the very least however, there does appear to be some storm/snowfall potential Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Much of the entire week should also see predominantly sub-freezing temperatures although it might be a little premature to say that definitively.
The Christmas holiday outlook as of now appears mixed as mentioned. There continue to be indications of a strengthening jet stream in the Pacific quantified by a positive EPO. A warm signal is being indicated for a time across much of eastern North America in the days just prior to Christmas. That being said, that Pacific jet stream is expected to fall short of "evil empire" standards and the pattern is expected to remain stormy enough, particularly the southern branch of the stream, to keep the weather picture interesting. One thing we are unlikely to see for the rest of 2019 is a massive intrusion of intense arctic cold. The cold we do see will be much like the next few days - shortlived and isolated to the northern latitudes of the United States and not especially intense.
Sunday, December 8, 2019
Short term outlook is bad and the outlook for upcoming weekend has deteriorated
I was very pleased to see an over-performance on Friday and Friday night and what looked to be a beautiful opener at MRG Saturday and some great wintry visibility Sunday. It won't be so beautiful Monday and Tuesday and unfortunately this will be the start of a less than stellar week on the mountain.
Warm air is poised to flood the state of Vermont Monday along with modest amounts of moisture. Precipitation that falls before about 10 am on Monday could be snow or a wintry mix of snow and sleet. Temperatures will surge toward the 40 degree mark by the late afternoon Monday and allow the period of precipitation in this time slot to be of the plain rain variety. Much of the rain associated with this mild surge of air will actually fall either late in the day Monday or Monday evening and we are only expecting about a third to a half of an inch of rain but the combination of the wet weather, high dewpoints and a persistent wind will do some serious damage to the varying levels of early season snowpack across the state. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's late in the afternoon Monday and remain steady overnight before surging up past 50 in valley locations early on Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will should actually be precipitation-free and might feature sporadic amounts of blue sky. The cold front marking the end of the tropical abomination arrives late on Tuesday and temperatures are expected to nosedive back toward the freezing mark shortly after dark Tuesday evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front allowing the undercutting area of advancing cold to provide a platform for an area of snow Wednesday morning, but this zone of accumulating snow is largely expected to miss the state of Vermont and also steal lingering moisture from interior mountain locations.
Another disturbance associated with a more significant push of arctic cold will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday evening and night. High elevations of northern Vermont will pick up a very light accumulation of mostly less than 3 inches and yes, we will need a lot more than this to get us back in business following the meltdown. Wintry temperatures consisting of 5-15 degree overnights and twenties during the day will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will feature a slightly more moderate afternoon thanks to some sunshine.
The most disappointing aspect of this outlook has to do with the upcoming weekend. Yeah sure the next few days are bad but us avid skiers probably already considered that a "sunk cost" so to speak, but the next storm deteriorating into another toilet-flusher is a big let-down. As feared, this system will amplify too early across the Mississippi Delta region and flood much of the east coast with warm air. Lingering sub-freezing temperatures will likely provide for a period of mixed precipitation Satuday, but straight-up snow appears unlikely while heavy rain at some point during the weekend appears more likely. This storm, which is forecast to track over the Ohio River and up over Lake Erie might spread series amounts of snow into the U.P. of Michigan but certainly not over interior New England.
Colder weather will return again for Sunday, the 15th of December and this should begin a more promising stretch of weather. Some snowfall should accompany the return of this colder weather on the aforementioned Sunday and another weather system could bring some snow to the region either Monday or Tuesday. Beyond that the outlook can can be described as marginal. High latitude blocking in the jet stream appears absent and the jet stream in the Pacific appears to be getting stronger as we advance beyond the middle part of the month. This will certainly limit the availability of extreme cold across mid-latitude North America which ensembles certainly indicate as we head toward the solstice. That said, the pattern continues to look stormy and the long-wave jet stream pattern being indicated does not suggest any extended torchiness.
Overall, this is certainly a negative turn in the outlook going forward mainly having to do with the short term 7-day forecast for the upcoming week.
Warm air is poised to flood the state of Vermont Monday along with modest amounts of moisture. Precipitation that falls before about 10 am on Monday could be snow or a wintry mix of snow and sleet. Temperatures will surge toward the 40 degree mark by the late afternoon Monday and allow the period of precipitation in this time slot to be of the plain rain variety. Much of the rain associated with this mild surge of air will actually fall either late in the day Monday or Monday evening and we are only expecting about a third to a half of an inch of rain but the combination of the wet weather, high dewpoints and a persistent wind will do some serious damage to the varying levels of early season snowpack across the state. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's late in the afternoon Monday and remain steady overnight before surging up past 50 in valley locations early on Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will should actually be precipitation-free and might feature sporadic amounts of blue sky. The cold front marking the end of the tropical abomination arrives late on Tuesday and temperatures are expected to nosedive back toward the freezing mark shortly after dark Tuesday evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front allowing the undercutting area of advancing cold to provide a platform for an area of snow Wednesday morning, but this zone of accumulating snow is largely expected to miss the state of Vermont and also steal lingering moisture from interior mountain locations.
Another disturbance associated with a more significant push of arctic cold will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday evening and night. High elevations of northern Vermont will pick up a very light accumulation of mostly less than 3 inches and yes, we will need a lot more than this to get us back in business following the meltdown. Wintry temperatures consisting of 5-15 degree overnights and twenties during the day will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will feature a slightly more moderate afternoon thanks to some sunshine.
The most disappointing aspect of this outlook has to do with the upcoming weekend. Yeah sure the next few days are bad but us avid skiers probably already considered that a "sunk cost" so to speak, but the next storm deteriorating into another toilet-flusher is a big let-down. As feared, this system will amplify too early across the Mississippi Delta region and flood much of the east coast with warm air. Lingering sub-freezing temperatures will likely provide for a period of mixed precipitation Satuday, but straight-up snow appears unlikely while heavy rain at some point during the weekend appears more likely. This storm, which is forecast to track over the Ohio River and up over Lake Erie might spread series amounts of snow into the U.P. of Michigan but certainly not over interior New England.
Colder weather will return again for Sunday, the 15th of December and this should begin a more promising stretch of weather. Some snowfall should accompany the return of this colder weather on the aforementioned Sunday and another weather system could bring some snow to the region either Monday or Tuesday. Beyond that the outlook can can be described as marginal. High latitude blocking in the jet stream appears absent and the jet stream in the Pacific appears to be getting stronger as we advance beyond the middle part of the month. This will certainly limit the availability of extreme cold across mid-latitude North America which ensembles certainly indicate as we head toward the solstice. That said, the pattern continues to look stormy and the long-wave jet stream pattern being indicated does not suggest any extended torchiness.
Overall, this is certainly a negative turn in the outlook going forward mainly having to do with the short term 7-day forecast for the upcoming week.
Thursday, December 5, 2019
Wintry opening day at Mad River Glen followed by an ugly looking thaw early next week
On the whole, the outlook looks somewhat positive through the winter solstice but it is weighed down substantially because of a very bad looking 48-hour stretch early next week. In the mean time, temperatures have remained below freezing and the mountains have picked up small amounts of fluffy snow this week. The arctic front late next week appears more substantial and includes a more well defined, albeit weak, area of low pressure that is expected to move from near Buffalo to Boston during the course of the day Friday. This is not an entirely bad forecast track at all for northern Vermont though models are suggesting that much of the snow that falls from this will be over the same area that maxed out on the last storm and not necessarily over northern Vermont. There are some old weather forecasting rules that are somewhat violated by this notion and would instead have us getting a 2-5 inch snow Friday but if we are to enslave ourselves to model output then the MRV would see a 1-2 inch event. It's pretty close yet again and worth watching the radar on Friday but it's a good bet that places a little farther south outperform the MRV again.
Opening day Saturday appears to be cold and blustery but not overwhelmingly so. Winds are likely to be in the 10-20 mph range for much of the day with clouds and some snow flurries to start and some sunshine and better visibility to finish. That good visibility should continue into Sunday and will include calm winds (until very late in the day) and temperatures rebounding toward 30 in the afternoon following a 5 degree morning.
There's no getting around the outlook for late Monday into Tuesday. It is an ugly looking torch and once it gets going, we can rest a little easier at missing out on the goodies December 1st and 2nd because much of that will be gone by Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the 40's by late Monday, accompanied by some rain during the evening and those above-freezing temperatures will persist Monday night into Tuesday, even rising into the 50's during the day. Occasional rain, high dewpoints and a mild wind will do considerable damage to early season snow cover and leave lots of bare ground showing by the time colder air arrives Wednesday morning. The cold air late in the week looks somewhat intense and should be accompanied by snow showers, but we will have work to do in terms of recovering what will be lost.
The better part of the outlook involves the stretch beginning after the coming thaw December 11th and persisting at least through the solstice. Though there continues to be an incredible amount of disagreement in the forecast ensembles, none of the scenarios involve a torch. The American ensembles indicate a simply beautiful looking weather pattern including a nice ridge in the jet stream over western Canada and an undercutting sub-tropical jet stream (split flow) which would keep the storm threat alive. The European Ensembles want no part of any ridge in western Canada and show a tighter Pacific jet stream. This version would certainly be milder than the picture being painted by the American ensembles but not overwhelmingly warm and still potentially stormy If I had a concern during these 10 days, it involves a potential storm around December 13-14 amplifying too aggressively in the southern plains. Such an occurrence reduces the snowfall potential and raises the mixed precipitation potential.
Opening day Saturday appears to be cold and blustery but not overwhelmingly so. Winds are likely to be in the 10-20 mph range for much of the day with clouds and some snow flurries to start and some sunshine and better visibility to finish. That good visibility should continue into Sunday and will include calm winds (until very late in the day) and temperatures rebounding toward 30 in the afternoon following a 5 degree morning.
There's no getting around the outlook for late Monday into Tuesday. It is an ugly looking torch and once it gets going, we can rest a little easier at missing out on the goodies December 1st and 2nd because much of that will be gone by Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the 40's by late Monday, accompanied by some rain during the evening and those above-freezing temperatures will persist Monday night into Tuesday, even rising into the 50's during the day. Occasional rain, high dewpoints and a mild wind will do considerable damage to early season snow cover and leave lots of bare ground showing by the time colder air arrives Wednesday morning. The cold air late in the week looks somewhat intense and should be accompanied by snow showers, but we will have work to do in terms of recovering what will be lost.
The better part of the outlook involves the stretch beginning after the coming thaw December 11th and persisting at least through the solstice. Though there continues to be an incredible amount of disagreement in the forecast ensembles, none of the scenarios involve a torch. The American ensembles indicate a simply beautiful looking weather pattern including a nice ridge in the jet stream over western Canada and an undercutting sub-tropical jet stream (split flow) which would keep the storm threat alive. The European Ensembles want no part of any ridge in western Canada and show a tighter Pacific jet stream. This version would certainly be milder than the picture being painted by the American ensembles but not overwhelmingly warm and still potentially stormy If I had a concern during these 10 days, it involves a potential storm around December 13-14 amplifying too aggressively in the southern plains. Such an occurrence reduces the snowfall potential and raises the mixed precipitation potential.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Outlook through the solstice certainly not terrible in spite of recent swing and miss
Albany has spent much of the last decade as Mother Nature's favorite snow hole. Not with this most recent storm however and unfortunately it came at our expense as northern Vermont was shut out in spots and on the very short end of the snow stick in the MRV. Here is the map and thanks to the great work of Tomer Borg (@burgwx) for putting these together.
We will continue to enjoy sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain through at least Sunday morning (Dec 8) though valley locations may inch above freezing this Wednesday and Thursday. The snow forecast appears relatively uneventful however. There are two disturbances capable of bringing some snow to northern Vermont but moisture is sparse and we will be heavily dependent on whatever Lake Champlain can provide for us. The first Wednesday night will provide us with about 1-3 and the second arrives as an arctic boundary early Friday appears especially dry and might only be good for a dusting to an inch. Saturday appears to be an excellent visibility day with temperatures in the single numbers in the morning and only near 20 during the afternoon. A milder breeze later Sunday will push temperatures toward the freezing mark in spite of clouds.
The longer range outlook looks a bit muddled today but the muddling is in fact an improvement from two days ago when it appeared as if a tightened Pacific jet stream would simply prevail over everything. We have a mild stretch of weather to contend with early next week, December 9th and 10th with some accompanying wet weather on Tuesday. It is possible that a one day torch pushes temperatures into the 50's during this time frame but it will be short lived with winter making an abrupt return Wednesday.
Both major set of forecast ensembles have moved toward the development of a block in the stream north of Alaska. High latitude blocking of any sort was glaringly absent from the outlook a few days ago and this aforementioned feature will counter a modest tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. It could very well set the stage for an interesting middle of the month in terms of snow potential though this remains more than a week away. After December 16th, these same forecast ensembles diverge dramatically with the American version showing a full scale ridge west / trough east positive PNA regime while the European counterpart is a lot more mixed. One can just simply look at how the two forecast packages are handling the outlook in Alaska and can easily gauge how different they are.
There is good news in that dissension however since a full-scale torch does not appear to be part of any scenario with the exception of the two day stretch of mild temps early next week.
We will continue to enjoy sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain through at least Sunday morning (Dec 8) though valley locations may inch above freezing this Wednesday and Thursday. The snow forecast appears relatively uneventful however. There are two disturbances capable of bringing some snow to northern Vermont but moisture is sparse and we will be heavily dependent on whatever Lake Champlain can provide for us. The first Wednesday night will provide us with about 1-3 and the second arrives as an arctic boundary early Friday appears especially dry and might only be good for a dusting to an inch. Saturday appears to be an excellent visibility day with temperatures in the single numbers in the morning and only near 20 during the afternoon. A milder breeze later Sunday will push temperatures toward the freezing mark in spite of clouds.
The longer range outlook looks a bit muddled today but the muddling is in fact an improvement from two days ago when it appeared as if a tightened Pacific jet stream would simply prevail over everything. We have a mild stretch of weather to contend with early next week, December 9th and 10th with some accompanying wet weather on Tuesday. It is possible that a one day torch pushes temperatures into the 50's during this time frame but it will be short lived with winter making an abrupt return Wednesday.
Both major set of forecast ensembles have moved toward the development of a block in the stream north of Alaska. High latitude blocking of any sort was glaringly absent from the outlook a few days ago and this aforementioned feature will counter a modest tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. It could very well set the stage for an interesting middle of the month in terms of snow potential though this remains more than a week away. After December 16th, these same forecast ensembles diverge dramatically with the American version showing a full scale ridge west / trough east positive PNA regime while the European counterpart is a lot more mixed. One can just simply look at how the two forecast packages are handling the outlook in Alaska and can easily gauge how different they are.
There is good news in that dissension however since a full-scale torch does not appear to be part of any scenario with the exception of the two day stretch of mild temps early next week.
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