More improvements in the forecast over the next two weeks as we approach the death of the "evil empire"

Our general outlook continues to slowly improve as we get closer to February and though some concerns remain in the forecast picture, good news is once again out-weighing the bad. Thanks to the evil empire out in the Pacific, ensembles have, for some time, been keying in on two big potential trouble spots over the next week or so. Though changes are still possible, we may in fact get through both with minimal damage meaning no big rain and no dramatic melt-off. Following a bluebird Friday with seasonable temperatures, we will see readings warm toward the 40-degree mark on Saturday. A weakening weather system behind this push of warmth will approach the region late on Saturday but lets be thankful this storm is falling apart because because warmth will be mitigated and the rain will be minimal. Some precipitation is expected Saturday evening and night but we shouldn't see much; in fact, precipitation in the high country is likely to fall as some wet snow while mixed rain and snow falls in the lower elevations. A few of the very highest spots might actually see an accumulation. Clouds should generally remain in place for Sunday. It will remain mild but not get any milder with readings hovering a few degrees above the freezing mark.

The forecast for next week has been evolving quickly. We still have another push of mild temperatures to be concerned with in the Thursday/Friday time frame (February 1st and 2nd), but this also looks substantially weaker than a few days ago. In addition, the week as a whole looks flat out colder. Arctic air will plunge southward Monday through the Great Lakes region thanks to a jet amplification that has been underestimated by the models until the last two days or so. There's a clipper system associated with this quickly digging trough, some subtropical energy/moisture down near the Gulf and when you mix that up with some incoming cold air, big east coast storms can happen. That's not what models are currently showing, at least not showing a storm capable of delivering feet of snow to New England but that possibility is certainly out there. Models are indicating some snow however but there's been a lot of wavering and dissension about who exactly gets it. My expectation is that the forecast picture for Monday undergoes some additional changes over the next few days but right now, there are indications of an inverted trough and a possible deformation area where snowfall could be significant. If this is what indeed happens, one particular area will do well while other areas might miss out completely. Temperatures will fall back into the 20's Monday and back into the teens Tuesday (with wind chills) and then more sub-zero readings possible on Wednesday morning of next week. 

The big changes in the pattern are happening in a few different locations. The evil empire will get beaten down as we approach February 3rd and 4th and EPO index forecasts are illustrating that with the expectation of some significant negative values within two weeks. We also have a large high latitude block in the jet stream that is expected to form over the Arctic Ocean centered north of far northeast Russia. The combination of the aforementioned developments will allow for a big southward push of arctic air which is anticipated to reach Vermont by first full weekend of February. We have the warm-up already discussed around the 1st or 2nd of the and we may see a little rain before the mild weather is displaced. I will point out however that there are hints that the front responsible for the cold air arrival may also bring some snow along with the minimal amount of rain. Its a long story that I'll save for the next update if this song remains the same.

The position of the high latitude block is located a bit farther north and west than one would consider ideal for eastern North American cold. Ensembles have actually indicated over the last two days that the center of the strongest cold will actually be well west of Vermont during that first full week of February. Though this does open the door for a possible inland runner even after we get cold, it will also ensure that the pattern isn't overwhelmed with cold with a storm track that is too far south for New England snow. The best patterns for snow in Vermont are typically the ones where we flirt with danger and this looks like one of those situations. It's been a frustrating few weeks but February looks very encouraging. I expect some exciting stuff.