Much less warmth and possibly even some snow late this weekend and an even better looking longer term February outlook

Sleet, freezing rain, rain and some above freezing temperatures is not what the doctor ordered during the climatologically coldest part of the winter. Snow returns to the high elevations late Tuesday evening and by Wednesday morning, the entire region should be seeing some flurries and the high country should have a fresh 1-3 inches on the ground along with temperatures in the 20's. Accumulations are likely to be more robust as one heads north and could reach 6 inches at locations such as Jay Peak.

Don't let your spirits get too dampened both literally and figuratively because good news encompasses the outlook today. Just a bit of it in the 5-day outlook and a lot more of it in the longer term outlook (two weeks out). Challenges remain on the horizon but I consider them a sunk cost at this point.

Cold will gradually build across the region as the current week progresses. Readings will take a run at zero Wednesday night and will be confined to the teens Thursday in spite of a full day of sunshine. The dry and somewhat chilly temperatures will continue into Friday though readings should at least approach the 20-degree mark during the afternoon. The SCWB has certainly expressed some concern about the upcoming weekend for some time. This appeared to be the height of the "evil empire" and it's sinister prowess in regards to the general impact on snow conditions in Vermont. Though it still appears mild relative to average this weekend, the intensity of the relative warmth appears much less based on the last few cycles of model data (perhaps only 30's on Saturday). This in itself is excellent news, but perhaps we have room for additional positive headlines. A storm system is expected to approach late in the weekend, fueled largely by the push of mild air to our south and the pool of arctic air positioned over eastern Canada. There's a broad possibility of end results with this storm but it's looking increasingly likely that we can score some snow in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Other forms of precipitation remain possible also but this is a massive improvement relative to the dire picture the ensembles were painting for the last weekend in January several days ago.

We've got another (and hopefully last) big roller coaster ride on temperatures in the subsequent week. Cold weather makes a temporary push south during the early part of the week ensuring sub freezing temperatures in the Monday-Wednesday time frame. Milder air will then make another northward push late in the week in what I hope will be the last trying situation before we head into an extended period of wintry weather starting around February 3rd or 4th (first weekend of Feb). It remains to be seen how mild we could get on February 1st or 2nd and whether or not we get a major rain event. At the very least, 1-2 days of above-freezing temperatures is likely.

So the turn toward colder and more wintry weather is coming into view. The MJO is cycling quickly and the ridge across the mid-latitude Pacific is expected to weaken and become a more full latitude ridge extending up toward the poles from the eastern Pacific. This will will arctic air to make a southward push and greatly reduce the probability of extended thaws and rain events starting a few days into February. It is possible that one more such event could occur before February 6th but significant snow is also possible in that time frame.  A somewhat weakening La Nina parlayed with cold centered across the central part of North America is certainly the right kind of ingredients for a stormy eastern United States. Snow conditions should thus improve at least gradually and possibly quite dramatically.  Lets hope !