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Sunday, January 14, 2018

Potential mid-week storm probably belly flops leaving us a bit snow-starved in a less than optimimal weather pattern

We took an old fashion @#%kicking Friday and got a layer of freezing rain, sleet and only a little snow for our troubles. Sleet makes for terrific foundation material and were we to get a nice 6-12 inches of fluff on top of all that, I wouldn't expect too many complaints. Alas, the snow forecast for the next week isn't what I had hoped and it may take much of the rest of this month to get this pattern to a place where those type of events can occur.

The Martin Luther King holiday Monday will be a calm and cold one. Temperatures will start near -10 and make a modest climb into the teens thanks to a full day of bright sunshine. Tuesday will be cloudier and not as cold with readings climbing into the twenties. We had eyes on the middle of the week since it was expected that a potent clipper system might work a bit of magic along the eastern seaboard. This system has the capability of giving us a full replenishing. Sometimes I like the think of clipper systems as olympic divers though many fall well short of olympic material. This clipper system takes a graceful jump off the diving board and as of now is indicated to belly flop off the Middle Atlantic coastline. The advancing and building ridge in the middle of the country just looks to be coming at it too hard, not giving it an opportunity to strengthen and take a northeast turn. There's still a small chance to turn the ship around and a bigger chance that we can score a few fluffy inches Tuesday night but concept of a big mid-week storm looks almost dead.

And then we have the evil empire to contend with. The tightened jet stream in the Pacific is expected to be with us for at least two weeks beginning in a few days and that will pose an invariable hurdle for much of the back half of January. Not to say we can't jump that hurdle on occasion but we won't always be able to jump it. Mild weather will make a big run at the region starting Friday the 19th and will push temperatures past the freezing mark during the weekend of the 20th and 21st. Limited amounts of cold air in eastern Canada might be able to work it's way into the weather picture in time to stave off another potential rain event on the 22nd but that could go either way. Colder air will work its way back into the region for the 22nd to 24th but the storminess and cold will be focused on the western U.S. where many areas have been snow-starved and need some help from a few storms. Unfortunately the door will remain open for another less than optimal weather situation prior to the last weekend of the month. I do think the weather pattern will ultimately turn more favorable but we're going to need to be patient for now.

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