The Mad River Valley and the mountains that surround it have that wintry feel yet again, but there's work to do obviously. Though the mid-week storm that once had such potential will not deliver what was hoped, it will deliver something. We already received a nice 1-2 on Tuesday morning and snow is expected to recommence Wednesday morning and continue at a relatively light but not entirely insignificant rate throughout the day. Southern Vermont, the Monadnock region of New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts will perform somewhat better from this rather compact system, but we won't be left out. Accumulations will be of the fluffier variety and should amount to 3-5 inches by the time the day ends. Seasonable temperatures finish will follow for Thursday followed by a Friday where readings inch their way toward the freezing mark. Snowfall is expected to be minimal both days but flurries or some light snow is possible Friday in front of our next push of warm air.
The evil empire in the Pacific has some challenges in store for us over the next two weeks or so. The first comes this weekend into early next week but their are some interesting developments that appear more evident over the last day or so. We have some agreement that Saturday is a torch but a dry torch and not an excessive torch. Temperatures will make a push toward 40 thanks to a mild wind, but clouds will help keep readings from spiraling too far upward and both rain/ high dewpoints are not expected. The above-freezing temps are expected to persist through early Sunday but there are indications that our friends in Canada will send a "New-England-only" shot of arctic cold. Models have yet to converge on this but I am relatively confident it occurs and it comes by late in the day Sunday. This has some pretty big ramifications on a weather system that is expected to impact the region early next week. Their are indications of another 45-degree rain, but I don't think we get a repeat of last Friday. Instead, temperatures are likely to fight their way below the freezing mark Sunday night, setting the stage for an icy situation Monday night and Tuesday. Interestingly, the European model has really come around on bringing the arctic cold to the rescue the last two successive model runs; in fact, some snowfall isn't that far out of the picture and is probably in the picture for areas such as Jay Peak. This situation is worth watching as it seems to be evolving quickly and in a generally positive way for us. Ice isn't ideal but it sure beats another meltdown. There are probably some mild forecasts still out there for Monday/Tuesday but my guess is that we will trend colder and hopefully continue to trend colder as we get closer to the event in question.
I think the Monday/Tuesday event is a microcosm of what we will be dealing with for the back half of January. The evil empire will throw a few challenges our way, but the giant ridge in the Pacific, though a rather significant player on the playing field, is not as ferocious as some others in past years. We are likely going to have some additional mild excursions but I also expect that we add some new snow on a few occasions and might even be able to score a significant storm before the end of the month. One such chance for this might come around the time of the last weekend of the month, but it's anybody's guess as to what kind of precipitation might fall. If the MJO continues to cycle, as its been cycling, we will have a chance at another sustained round of wintry weather in February.
SWING! And a miss. Again.
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