Tuesday's storm looks more wintry but outlook for back part of the month continues to look a bit rocky

Cold in the deep south managed to mostly avoid New England this week and temperatures were wintry but seasonable. We've gotten bits of snow here or there but certainly could use a bit more. The giant ridge in the jet stream across the mid-latitude Pacific Ocean that I commonly refer to as the "evil empire" will continue to provide challenges for the balance of the month and perhaps even into early February. I do think that it will ultimately become more favorable as we progress into February but we'll have to be patient until then.

Fortunately, we can enjoy a bit of good news in the short term. As advertised in the previous update, the Tuesday storm system looks more wintry and not particularly rainy. The region will enjoy a bit of mild weather Saturday (about 40 degrees), a rather mild night Saturday night (30 degrees) and a relatively balmy start to Sunday, but arctic cold will indeed make its New England-only sneak attack forcing temperatures lower Sunday night and ensuring a cloudy and more seasonable Monday. Precipitation arrives late Monday night and should arrive in form of snow; in fact, we should be able to score a few inches by Tuesday morning when at that point we are at risk of a change to sleet/freezing rain. As of early Friday, NWS Burlington is forecasting plain rain during the day Tuesday, essentially following the warmer American GFS model which has temperatures approaching the 40-degree mark. Other models are suggesting a colder storm and I am going to continue to ride that bandwagen. After a few inches of snow Monday night/early Tuesday, most of the daylight hours Tuesday will be sub-freezing with sleet or freezing rain (I am just nor sure which yet). Locations such as Jay Peak, have a 50/50 shot of staying all snow for the event. The models suggesting a colder storm are also suggesting a decent pool of low level instability Tuesday night capable of providing the ingredients for terrain induced snow showers of the accumulating variety. In the end, we might not see the very skiable fluffy snow from this storm, but we should get another layer on the foundation and we're going to need it because more challenges lay ahead.

Seasonable temperatures return to Vermont by Wednesday and snow showers should continue for a time before tapering to flurries while clouds decrease. The wintry temperatures should continue the balance of the week including some morning sub zero temperatures by Friday (Jan 26). Like I mentioned however, the Evil Empire is still at work and plans on sending us another big surge of mild weather during the last weekend of the month. Arctic cold will linger in south central and southeast Canada providing some hope that we can stave off another thaw but this will be one of the bigger challenges in this pattern before it hopefully gives way to a more favorable setup in February. In addition to the surge of warmth/potential rain during the last weekend of January, there is likely to be one more in very early February. I am not guaranteeing another rain event but it's possible along with another 1-3 day stretch of above-freezing temps.