The "corn horn" was finally sounded and unfortunately the rain horn has also been sounded. After about a quarter to a half inch of rain Thursday night, the rain will move out on Friday and some partial clearing will accompany a push of colder temperatures. The last full day of March, Saturday, will start with sub-freezing temperatures and with the help of a healthy dose of sunshine, readings will climb into the 40's. A "BC bomber" then attacks from the west on Saturday night bringing clouds and some elevation sensitive rain/snow showers. Unfortunately this system is expected to track through Quebec leaving us on the warmer and less precipitous side of things. We could see a small gloppy accumulation above 2500 feet prior to Sunday morning but I don't expect a powder day Sunday. It will however be colder with temperatures again starting in the 20's and only rising into the 30's.
Now I know the updates have gotten more sparse and we are expecting some winter weather to return to the region, so my apologies for the lack of updates. Since the weekend, the intensity of the chill next week looks slightly less. Still, a very impressive area of anomalous April cold will set up shop across the middle part of North America and though its reach into New England looks a bit more tenuous, we are still .lined up for some below normal temperatures and potentially some snow. Monday appears to be a dry day with morning temperatures in the teens and afternoon readings struggling to get above freezing. After that, the first of what I think will be two significant weather producers will impact the region. With the center of the cold and supporting trough in the jet stream set up across the middle of the country, this first storm has been advertised to take a less than ideal track later Tuesday into Wednesday. This puzzle has yet to be pieced together however and even given the aforementioned scenario, we could still be looking at a period of snow turning to mixed precipitation. If we intend to get any powder however, we will need this system to track further south and not close to the Canadian border or even farther north. Colder weather will follow for Thursday and send temperatures at least partially back below freezing through Friday and then another weather system is likely to impact the region around the weekend of April 7th and 8th. We have the cold weather in place but will need the storm track to cooperate much like we need it to for the first storm on Tuesday.
Around the time of April 10th, the jet in the Pacific will tighten a bit and although some cold weather is indicated to linger across the Plains, it will likely loosen its grip on New England. Hardly a bold prediction given the time of the year, but we should expect temperatures to spend a greater percentage of time above freezing with readings reaching the 60 degree mark at least once between April 11th and 15th.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Saturday, March 24, 2018
A few inches Saturday night keeps the winter vibe alive and after some milder weather this upcoming week, winter will make an April return
Still talking about fresh powder on March 24th and we could be continuing such discussions into April by the looks of things. Strong northerly flow at Jet Stream level typically means dry weather in Vermont and for the most part it will be in this case, but a quick moving impulse will drop down this chimney Saturday night and allow for a burst of snowfall across the high country. The snow won't last long but will accumulate 2-4 inches before ending by morning. Temperatures as I indicated, are good enough for powder - near 20 degrees.
Sunday will feature increasing amounts of blue sky and Monday will feature a total blue sky and will probably rank as one of the best visibility days of the year. Temperatures will generally stay below freezing on much of the mountain Sunday but the strong late March sunshine will help boost temperatures to within a few degrees of 40 Monday. The warming, given the time of year, was pretty imminent this upcoming week, but we've had thaws already this year that were more destructive. Readings will climb into the 40's on Tuesday and up near 50 on Wednesday, but the warmer temperatures won't be accompanied by high dewpoints or strong winds and will thus leave much of the snowpack in tact in the mountains. Rain showers late on Wednesday or Wednesday night will melt a little more snow, as will some lingering mild weather on Thursday, but the cold is returning by the weekend and new snow might very well arrive with it.
Arctic cold will be on the move southward late next week and into early April thanks to a plethora of favorable teleconnection indices, mainly a relaxed Pacific Jet stream. There are hints of a significant storm late Friday into early Saturday capable of providing a multitude of precipitation types to New England. Temperatures on Friday are likely too mild to support snow but an infusion of arctic chill could make things more interesting by Saturday March 31st. Cold, below normal temperatures will continue at a varying intensity for at least a week into April and the wintry temperatures are likely to be accompanied by some wintry weather. If we can continue to keep the subtropics involved as we have through much of the last month, be prepared for some intrigue.
Sunday will feature increasing amounts of blue sky and Monday will feature a total blue sky and will probably rank as one of the best visibility days of the year. Temperatures will generally stay below freezing on much of the mountain Sunday but the strong late March sunshine will help boost temperatures to within a few degrees of 40 Monday. The warming, given the time of year, was pretty imminent this upcoming week, but we've had thaws already this year that were more destructive. Readings will climb into the 40's on Tuesday and up near 50 on Wednesday, but the warmer temperatures won't be accompanied by high dewpoints or strong winds and will thus leave much of the snowpack in tact in the mountains. Rain showers late on Wednesday or Wednesday night will melt a little more snow, as will some lingering mild weather on Thursday, but the cold is returning by the weekend and new snow might very well arrive with it.
Arctic cold will be on the move southward late next week and into early April thanks to a plethora of favorable teleconnection indices, mainly a relaxed Pacific Jet stream. There are hints of a significant storm late Friday into early Saturday capable of providing a multitude of precipitation types to New England. Temperatures on Friday are likely too mild to support snow but an infusion of arctic chill could make things more interesting by Saturday March 31st. Cold, below normal temperatures will continue at a varying intensity for at least a week into April and the wintry temperatures are likely to be accompanied by some wintry weather. If we can continue to keep the subtropics involved as we have through much of the last month, be prepared for some intrigue.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Cold weather and some snow flurries through the weekend then a warm-up for next week
Another in a long list of March of 2018 winter storms has raged on the Mid_Atlantic and parts of southern New England, but this impressive system remains and will remain beneath us. This nor'easter, like the one very early this month, features a strong and closed upper low south of the Delmarva Peninsula and this consolidated much of the precipitation to the western and southern flank of the storm. We also have some very dry, cold air in place this week. Though not bulletproof, this airmass also helped shield us from the heaviest precipitation.
We still have a ton of snow on the ground; in fact, its some of the deepest late March snowpack we've seen in a while. Temperatures finally inched above the freezing mark on the lower part of mountain Wednesday, but for the most part, readings will stay below the freezing mark through the weekend with the exception of a few hours during each of the next several afternoons and really only at lower elevations. As for snow, the forecast doesn't have much. A low pressure wave will bring some wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic again this weekend but this system will again follow a very southern path and stay well south of the region. This allows the aforementioned colder air to remain in place and although heavy snow is not expected, a very weak plume of moisture from the maritimes will keep Friday and Saturday on the mostly cloudy side with flurries and an occasional snow shower. Don't think we can do much better than 1-3 inches by early Sunday from all this, but its worth keeping an eye on.
I advertised another possible warm-up next week and though it looks a day or two delayed, arrive it will. Chilly overnight temperatures will continue into the early part of next week thanks to clear skies and snowcover but sunshine will boost readings toward 40 on Monday and well into the 40's Tuesday. If we don't hear it by Tuesday, the corn horn should sound on Wednesday & Thursday of next week with at least one of those days featuring 50-plus temperatures.
Winter is not done however. The EPO is really expected to crash by late in the month and will be coupled by some significant ridging in the Arctic north of Alaska. Combine all that with a possible reemergence of ridging in Greenland and it adds up to one of the best set ups for cold and wintry weather we've seen all year in eastern North America. The timing has been pushed back just slightly compared to a few days ago but we should expect a big surge of below and much below normal temperatures around April Fools Day and some accompanying snow across the Vermont high-country.
We still have a ton of snow on the ground; in fact, its some of the deepest late March snowpack we've seen in a while. Temperatures finally inched above the freezing mark on the lower part of mountain Wednesday, but for the most part, readings will stay below the freezing mark through the weekend with the exception of a few hours during each of the next several afternoons and really only at lower elevations. As for snow, the forecast doesn't have much. A low pressure wave will bring some wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic again this weekend but this system will again follow a very southern path and stay well south of the region. This allows the aforementioned colder air to remain in place and although heavy snow is not expected, a very weak plume of moisture from the maritimes will keep Friday and Saturday on the mostly cloudy side with flurries and an occasional snow shower. Don't think we can do much better than 1-3 inches by early Sunday from all this, but its worth keeping an eye on.
I advertised another possible warm-up next week and though it looks a day or two delayed, arrive it will. Chilly overnight temperatures will continue into the early part of next week thanks to clear skies and snowcover but sunshine will boost readings toward 40 on Monday and well into the 40's Tuesday. If we don't hear it by Tuesday, the corn horn should sound on Wednesday & Thursday of next week with at least one of those days featuring 50-plus temperatures.
Winter is not done however. The EPO is really expected to crash by late in the month and will be coupled by some significant ridging in the Arctic north of Alaska. Combine all that with a possible reemergence of ridging in Greenland and it adds up to one of the best set ups for cold and wintry weather we've seen all year in eastern North America. The timing has been pushed back just slightly compared to a few days ago but we should expect a big surge of below and much below normal temperatures around April Fools Day and some accompanying snow across the Vermont high-country.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Upcoming storm stays south of Vermont/MRG but cold persists for another week
Thanks to the deep snow cover and an influx of arctic air, temperatures dropped below zero Sunday morning in some sections of the state and will likely do so again by Monday morning. It's post St Patrick's Day and winter prevails and will continue to do so through this upcoming week with temperatures remaining below average and mostly below freezing. In a way of thinking, winter will prevail a little too much this week as the storm track has shifted south and will help keep the next juicy weather system well south of Vermont.
By midday Monday, the storm in question will be crossing the lower Mississippi River Valley and gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it does so. The weather across New England has been a lot colder than expected 10 days ago and that is a result of substantial amounts of polar jet energy that has taken up a position over eastern sections of North America. During other polar intrusions this winter and in winters past, we can recall how much this can suppress many storms and this is no exception (though in March, sometimes all bets are off). That said, we have established some pretty good agreement that our next potential big east coast system will stay south of the Virginia tidewater with its trailing upper level support confined to the southern Appalachian Mountains. The storm will take a more northward turn Wednesday get to within 150 miles or so of Cape Cod, but unlike its predecessors, there is no mechanism in this jet stream to hold this storm in the Canadian Maritimes long enough to allow moisture to reach Vermont. The forecast has thus gotten pretty dry and includes lots of sunshine actually with the exception of a period of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will modify only slowly and will remain below freezing on most of the mountain through Thursday.
The weekend of the 24th and 25th again looks colder and includes mostly below freezing temperatures thanks to an expected re enforcing of the east coast trough. Milder air will be gathering some steam across the middle of the country and will begin making a push northeastward as the weekend progresses. A series of weaker weather producers will likely divide the milder air from the cold gripping New England and may produce some snowfall as they pass though its a bit early to clearly define the timing. With mid-week storm passing to our south, the weekend is likely our next chance for snow generally speaking.
The mild air is expected to continue gathering strength by the 26th and is likely to make some inroads into Vermont for at least a day prior to March 28th as the Arctic Oscillation neutralizes. Winter is probably not done however as a building ridge in western North America and Alaska will probably allow for a major push of chill around the end of the month.
By midday Monday, the storm in question will be crossing the lower Mississippi River Valley and gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it does so. The weather across New England has been a lot colder than expected 10 days ago and that is a result of substantial amounts of polar jet energy that has taken up a position over eastern sections of North America. During other polar intrusions this winter and in winters past, we can recall how much this can suppress many storms and this is no exception (though in March, sometimes all bets are off). That said, we have established some pretty good agreement that our next potential big east coast system will stay south of the Virginia tidewater with its trailing upper level support confined to the southern Appalachian Mountains. The storm will take a more northward turn Wednesday get to within 150 miles or so of Cape Cod, but unlike its predecessors, there is no mechanism in this jet stream to hold this storm in the Canadian Maritimes long enough to allow moisture to reach Vermont. The forecast has thus gotten pretty dry and includes lots of sunshine actually with the exception of a period of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will modify only slowly and will remain below freezing on most of the mountain through Thursday.
The weekend of the 24th and 25th again looks colder and includes mostly below freezing temperatures thanks to an expected re enforcing of the east coast trough. Milder air will be gathering some steam across the middle of the country and will begin making a push northeastward as the weekend progresses. A series of weaker weather producers will likely divide the milder air from the cold gripping New England and may produce some snowfall as they pass though its a bit early to clearly define the timing. With mid-week storm passing to our south, the weekend is likely our next chance for snow generally speaking.
The mild air is expected to continue gathering strength by the 26th and is likely to make some inroads into Vermont for at least a day prior to March 28th as the Arctic Oscillation neutralizes. Winter is probably not done however as a building ridge in western North America and Alaska will probably allow for a major push of chill around the end of the month.
Friday, March 16, 2018
January-like temperatures will keep it powdery through the weekend while next week storm is still in play but looks somewhat south of us
Half way through March of 2018, nearly 75 inches of snow has fallen across the high country surrounding the Mad River Valley. Just 15-16 days ago, one would have to climb to the summit quad at Mt Ellen just to see consistent snowcover (MRG was closed). It was a depressing state of affairs even as the pattern appeared to be improving dramatically. It was a season truly on the brink to borrow the title from the great John Feinstein book. Going into St Patrick's Day weekend, there is currently snow where there almost always isn't, cliffs that have disappeared, ice falls covered in pow and steeps and chutes that even a hack like me can navigate.
And the snow keeps falling. Flurries in the case of Friday and these will actually continue into Saturday though accumulations will be fairly minimal. As you probably have noticed, the forecast just keep getting colder. Though the snow has fallen at an amazing clip this month, temperatures are still above average ( for the month) and Friday marks the first day of substantially below normal temperatures. Saturday's readings will be colder still, hovering in the teens throughout the day with blustery northwest winds pushing the wind chill down below zero. It mostly sunny on Sunday but wintry with readings close to zero in the morning and near 20 in the afternoon. Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday.
And then on to the next storm, a sizable one, that will dump snow across the Rocky Mountains this weekend and churn its way across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. With the colder changes in the forecast, the storm track has shifted to the south and there is good agreement that the center of the storm will be somewhere between the Virginia Tidewater and Cape Hatteras by Tuesday evening. The setup with this event appears a bit different than our recent one. Though some blocking in the jet stream has defied some expectations and will persist through the weekend and into early next week, it is expected to subside during the middle of the week, allowing the storm to have an "escape hatch" as opposed to getting hung up in the Maritimes like its two predecessors. At least that's how it looks right now. It appears like we could grab a few inches from this even in the current setup but we'll likely need the storm to track further north than models currently have for another big snow producer. This is not a big ask, so lets just see how this all looks in another day or two.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually modify during the week but remain mostly below freezing on the mountain through the end of the week. The period beginning Sunday March 25th and ending sometime early in the following week appears to be the time frame where a good push of spring-like temperatures could reach the region. Something similar was shown for St Patrick's day weekend about 10 days ago and we can all see how well that worked out. In addition, the warm-up is not likely to last even if it were to happen, as the ensembles are showing a nice looking positive PNA structure in the jet stream by the 27th or 28th of March. This will promote another southward push of cold temperatures that would essentially take us to the end of the month.
And the snow keeps falling. Flurries in the case of Friday and these will actually continue into Saturday though accumulations will be fairly minimal. As you probably have noticed, the forecast just keep getting colder. Though the snow has fallen at an amazing clip this month, temperatures are still above average ( for the month) and Friday marks the first day of substantially below normal temperatures. Saturday's readings will be colder still, hovering in the teens throughout the day with blustery northwest winds pushing the wind chill down below zero. It mostly sunny on Sunday but wintry with readings close to zero in the morning and near 20 in the afternoon. Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday.
And then on to the next storm, a sizable one, that will dump snow across the Rocky Mountains this weekend and churn its way across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. With the colder changes in the forecast, the storm track has shifted to the south and there is good agreement that the center of the storm will be somewhere between the Virginia Tidewater and Cape Hatteras by Tuesday evening. The setup with this event appears a bit different than our recent one. Though some blocking in the jet stream has defied some expectations and will persist through the weekend and into early next week, it is expected to subside during the middle of the week, allowing the storm to have an "escape hatch" as opposed to getting hung up in the Maritimes like its two predecessors. At least that's how it looks right now. It appears like we could grab a few inches from this even in the current setup but we'll likely need the storm to track further north than models currently have for another big snow producer. This is not a big ask, so lets just see how this all looks in another day or two.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually modify during the week but remain mostly below freezing on the mountain through the end of the week. The period beginning Sunday March 25th and ending sometime early in the following week appears to be the time frame where a good push of spring-like temperatures could reach the region. Something similar was shown for St Patrick's day weekend about 10 days ago and we can all see how well that worked out. In addition, the warm-up is not likely to last even if it were to happen, as the ensembles are showing a nice looking positive PNA structure in the jet stream by the 27th or 28th of March. This will promote another southward push of cold temperatures that would essentially take us to the end of the month.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Very snowy in the short term and much colder this weekend
It's March 13th, do you know where your big storm is ? In the case of 2018, about 100 miles southeast of Cape Cod as of midday Tuesday, moving methodically north-northeast. As expected, the storm will turn northward, passing over Nova Scotia/New Brunswick and get hung up a across the Maritimes. Though the southern part of Vermont will see some intense snowfall rates for a time on Tuesday, much of the state will miss the most intense snow bands; instead, seeing mostly steady but lighter snow throughout the afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, northern Vermont appears to be the pivot point (or pivot line) for some of the best moisture as the storm slows its forward progress on Wednesday. Though snowfall rates are not expected to be intense, they will be continuous over the high country, especially from Sugarbush northward and persist through Wednesday, Wednesday night and into Thursday before tapering to flurries sometime during the day. This is an awesome set up for the high country in northern Vermont which should perform exceptionally well particularly Wednesday and Wednesday night with the added effects of upslope . Here is a breakdown of expected snow totals for the aforementioned high elevations.
Tuesday: 5-7" (More in southern Vermont)
Tuesday Night: 3-6"
Wednesday: 4-8" (More in far northern Vermont)
Wednesday Night: 3-6" (More in far northern Vermont)
Thursday: 1-3" (More in far northern Vermont
Total Snow over 3 days: 16-30 inches
Temperatures will remain in the lower and middle 20's through (Thursday) along with rather stiff northwest winds though nothing especially intense. The snowfall will have more of a convective element to it on Wednesday/Wednesday Night into Thursday bringing the fluff factor into play and making it some of the best powder of the year to ski in.
The forecast for Friday and into the weekend and chilled down quite dramatically which eliminates any idea of thawing this weekend. Medium range models basically missed a fairly significant impulse which will help reenforce the eastern trough this weekend and actually bring the first significant round of below normal temperatures to the region in quite some time (The month as a whole is still 5 above normal from a temperature standpoint). Flurries and a few snow showers will also continue on Friday, subside somewhat Saturday and Sunday though remain possible. What a dramatic turn on temperatures though. Teens for lows and 20's for highs on the mountain accompanied by wind chill. Quite wintry indeed.
This wintry theme will continue into early next week. Monday appears dry with temperatures as low as the single numbers during the morning and 20's during the afternoon. Another jet amplification is still indicated for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame although the colder change in the forecast has also corresponded with a storm track that appears farther south. In spite of this, the possibility of a major east coast storm remains and situation will bear watching for several days especially given the reemergence of blocking in the jet stream across Greenland and the Davis Strait.
Much of this blocking is expected to continue through next week before subsiding by March 24th or so. The substantially negative Arctic Oscillation which has largely been responsible for the southward shifted storm track this month is also expected to subside. Looseness in the Pacific Jet is expected to continue however and should allow colder temperatures to continue to prevail across much of the mid-latitudes of North America through most of the rest of March.
Tuesday: 5-7" (More in southern Vermont)
Tuesday Night: 3-6"
Wednesday: 4-8" (More in far northern Vermont)
Wednesday Night: 3-6" (More in far northern Vermont)
Thursday: 1-3" (More in far northern Vermont
Total Snow over 3 days: 16-30 inches
Temperatures will remain in the lower and middle 20's through (Thursday) along with rather stiff northwest winds though nothing especially intense. The snowfall will have more of a convective element to it on Wednesday/Wednesday Night into Thursday bringing the fluff factor into play and making it some of the best powder of the year to ski in.
The forecast for Friday and into the weekend and chilled down quite dramatically which eliminates any idea of thawing this weekend. Medium range models basically missed a fairly significant impulse which will help reenforce the eastern trough this weekend and actually bring the first significant round of below normal temperatures to the region in quite some time (The month as a whole is still 5 above normal from a temperature standpoint). Flurries and a few snow showers will also continue on Friday, subside somewhat Saturday and Sunday though remain possible. What a dramatic turn on temperatures though. Teens for lows and 20's for highs on the mountain accompanied by wind chill. Quite wintry indeed.
This wintry theme will continue into early next week. Monday appears dry with temperatures as low as the single numbers during the morning and 20's during the afternoon. Another jet amplification is still indicated for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame although the colder change in the forecast has also corresponded with a storm track that appears farther south. In spite of this, the possibility of a major east coast storm remains and situation will bear watching for several days especially given the reemergence of blocking in the jet stream across Greenland and the Davis Strait.
Much of this blocking is expected to continue through next week before subsiding by March 24th or so. The substantially negative Arctic Oscillation which has largely been responsible for the southward shifted storm track this month is also expected to subside. Looseness in the Pacific Jet is expected to continue however and should allow colder temperatures to continue to prevail across much of the mid-latitudes of North America through most of the rest of March.
Sunday, March 11, 2018
Rinse and repeat, another 1-2 feet !!!
We've certainly seen some storms slip through our fingers this year and a soul crushing stretch of February weather that appeared on the brink of permanently closing out the 2017-2018 season at MRG. March arrives, the pattern improves drastically and a "trend is your friend" theme has suddenly dominated the blog. Almost 30 inches on the ground with more coming, a lot more actually.
As of Sunday afternoon, a storm is intensifying and gathering a healthy supply of Gulf of Mexico Moisture. It will already be a formidable system by the time it moves off the Carolina coastline on Monday and it will appear as if it will make a full escape out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, but you simply can't count any storm out in this pattern. Jet energy will dive in behind the storm , amplifying the pattern and further fueling the system, while continued blocking over the Labrador Sea prevents the aforementioned full escape. The storm will thus make the critical northward turn, pass just east of Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon and get hung up in the Maritimes for a time, somewhat like the last storm. This is a stronger storm from the standpoint of atmospheric pressure and a larger storm geometrically which means that in spite of the less than favorable track, Vermont will be positioned to get some decent snowfall and better than decent snowfall thanks to the storms temporary maritime "hang-up".
Much of southern and eastern New England are positioned to get clobbered with some of the heaviest snowfall through much of Tuesday. Snow will begin across much of the state of Vermont by Tuesday morning and persist steadily throughout the day, accumulating 4-8 inches by the evening. If the storm track can shift westward by 100 or so miles, accumulations could be double that at then some. Even without the shift, snow should continue into Tuesday night and into Wednesday when lingering moisture will combine with the added effects of upslope. The central and especially northern Green Mountains should do especially well as a result with an additional 2-4 inches Tuesday night and another 2-4 Wednesday. And it won't stop there, as moisture will be allowed to pinwheel around the weakening area of low pressure into Thursday thus yielding our 3-day total of 1-3 feet. I am actually being a bit conservative on snow estimates. It's an excellent setup even without the most optimal storm track and I could see the northern Greens overperforming much like we did Saturday night.
Overall this is both a stronger and colder storm. Snowfall should be powdery throughout with temperatures in the lower 20's and we should see stronger north winds though the strongest winds appear to be reserved for eastern New England mainly Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday and Thursday but remain in the 10-20 mph range with higher gusts at the summits.
Flurries might continue into Friday but the accumulating snow should be over by Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing on the hill through Friday and the St Patrick's day mild push appears less potent although temperatures are likely going to climb above freezing at low elevations by Saturday afternoon. Some underrated good news is that the potential storm that appeared timed for the 18-19th of the month appears delayed allowing the pattern to supply what will be much needed cold air as the precipitation arrives. Within a day or so of March 20th we could see another and this is followed by more March chill that will persist through the end of the ensuing week. Now when I say "March chill", it's a relative term. Late March weather typically consists of many above-freezing days even in wintry patterns but to readers of the blog, I think that goes without saying.
As of Sunday afternoon, a storm is intensifying and gathering a healthy supply of Gulf of Mexico Moisture. It will already be a formidable system by the time it moves off the Carolina coastline on Monday and it will appear as if it will make a full escape out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, but you simply can't count any storm out in this pattern. Jet energy will dive in behind the storm , amplifying the pattern and further fueling the system, while continued blocking over the Labrador Sea prevents the aforementioned full escape. The storm will thus make the critical northward turn, pass just east of Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon and get hung up in the Maritimes for a time, somewhat like the last storm. This is a stronger storm from the standpoint of atmospheric pressure and a larger storm geometrically which means that in spite of the less than favorable track, Vermont will be positioned to get some decent snowfall and better than decent snowfall thanks to the storms temporary maritime "hang-up".
Much of southern and eastern New England are positioned to get clobbered with some of the heaviest snowfall through much of Tuesday. Snow will begin across much of the state of Vermont by Tuesday morning and persist steadily throughout the day, accumulating 4-8 inches by the evening. If the storm track can shift westward by 100 or so miles, accumulations could be double that at then some. Even without the shift, snow should continue into Tuesday night and into Wednesday when lingering moisture will combine with the added effects of upslope. The central and especially northern Green Mountains should do especially well as a result with an additional 2-4 inches Tuesday night and another 2-4 Wednesday. And it won't stop there, as moisture will be allowed to pinwheel around the weakening area of low pressure into Thursday thus yielding our 3-day total of 1-3 feet. I am actually being a bit conservative on snow estimates. It's an excellent setup even without the most optimal storm track and I could see the northern Greens overperforming much like we did Saturday night.
Overall this is both a stronger and colder storm. Snowfall should be powdery throughout with temperatures in the lower 20's and we should see stronger north winds though the strongest winds appear to be reserved for eastern New England mainly Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday and Thursday but remain in the 10-20 mph range with higher gusts at the summits.
Flurries might continue into Friday but the accumulating snow should be over by Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing on the hill through Friday and the St Patrick's day mild push appears less potent although temperatures are likely going to climb above freezing at low elevations by Saturday afternoon. Some underrated good news is that the potential storm that appeared timed for the 18-19th of the month appears delayed allowing the pattern to supply what will be much needed cold air as the precipitation arrives. Within a day or so of March 20th we could see another and this is followed by more March chill that will persist through the end of the ensuing week. Now when I say "March chill", it's a relative term. Late March weather typically consists of many above-freezing days even in wintry patterns but to readers of the blog, I think that goes without saying.
Friday, March 9, 2018
The March comeback lives and will live on with snow this weekend and more during the upcoming week
Moisture from the mostly stalled and weakening low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes pivoted west of Vermont early on Friday and sunshine made an appearance albeit sporadically. Some of the snow showers dotting New York state Friday will rotate back into the Vermont high country Friday evening and night and bring a fresh 1-3 inches for first tracks Saturday. It's indicated to dry out a bit during the ski day Saturday and the sun could once again make an occasional appearance. As this is happening, the stalled and weakening low pressure area in the Maritimes will receive an influx of Atlantic moisture. Some of this will rotate into northern New England via Canada and is expected to produce a steadier version of snowfall Saturday evening and night. This all makes Sunday look even better right now with an additional 2-5 inches expected by Sunday first tracks as snow continues to fall through the early morning. Temperatures will remain quite steady ranging between the low 20's to about 30 throughout.
Though our upcoming Monday will not feature any additional snowfall, the rest of the week has intrigue. An influx of subtropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, an amplifying jet stream and blocking in the jet stream across the Labrador Sea are all ingredients for all sorts of fun and games including the continued possibility for a big storm. For the time being, models have seemingly put the kibosh on the big storm idea; instead, showing a flatter, less robust system moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night. The jet being rather log jammed downstream of us makes it unwise to completely dismiss a larger east coast event but even without it, respectable snowfall is likely across Vermont during the middle of the week. Assuming the storm is well out to sea (no guarantee), the downstream blocking will still cause the storm to get held up again across the Maritimes with low pressure extending itself backward toward much of New England. Without the influence of a strong, dry area of arctic high pressure, the gates are open for moisture and snowfall, especially over the high country on Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday. One way or another, this seems like an excellent opportunity for the mountains to over perform, even if the sun is shinning on valley locations. Furthermore, I would not eliminate the possibility of a bigger storm, at least not yet.
Temperatures throughout next week will stay below freezing extending the stretch of sub-freezing temperatures to around 10 days which isn't too bad for March. The aforementioned blocking in the Labrador Sea will break down however and will allow warmer temperatures to move northward for St Patrick's Day. Hard to get to specific on temperatures this far out, but a warm push in mid-March can easily get the corn horn blown and produce 50 and even 60 degree readings. Some sort of storm is indicated to arrive just after the warm air and we could be dealing with a period of wet weather as a result. As this is happening however, the weather pattern seems intent on delivering another round of cold and wintry weather that may persist through the end of March. It comes thanks to the re emergence of a negative NAO and what appears to be a very relaxed jet stream in the Pacific. Whether this colder push arrives in time to salvage some of the potential storm in the March 18th-19th period remains to be seen. Either way, the March comeback lives and will live on !
Though our upcoming Monday will not feature any additional snowfall, the rest of the week has intrigue. An influx of subtropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, an amplifying jet stream and blocking in the jet stream across the Labrador Sea are all ingredients for all sorts of fun and games including the continued possibility for a big storm. For the time being, models have seemingly put the kibosh on the big storm idea; instead, showing a flatter, less robust system moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night. The jet being rather log jammed downstream of us makes it unwise to completely dismiss a larger east coast event but even without it, respectable snowfall is likely across Vermont during the middle of the week. Assuming the storm is well out to sea (no guarantee), the downstream blocking will still cause the storm to get held up again across the Maritimes with low pressure extending itself backward toward much of New England. Without the influence of a strong, dry area of arctic high pressure, the gates are open for moisture and snowfall, especially over the high country on Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday. One way or another, this seems like an excellent opportunity for the mountains to over perform, even if the sun is shinning on valley locations. Furthermore, I would not eliminate the possibility of a bigger storm, at least not yet.
Temperatures throughout next week will stay below freezing extending the stretch of sub-freezing temperatures to around 10 days which isn't too bad for March. The aforementioned blocking in the Labrador Sea will break down however and will allow warmer temperatures to move northward for St Patrick's Day. Hard to get to specific on temperatures this far out, but a warm push in mid-March can easily get the corn horn blown and produce 50 and even 60 degree readings. Some sort of storm is indicated to arrive just after the warm air and we could be dealing with a period of wet weather as a result. As this is happening however, the weather pattern seems intent on delivering another round of cold and wintry weather that may persist through the end of March. It comes thanks to the re emergence of a negative NAO and what appears to be a very relaxed jet stream in the Pacific. Whether this colder push arrives in time to salvage some of the potential storm in the March 18th-19th period remains to be seen. Either way, the March comeback lives and will live on !
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Storm track shifts back to the east a bit but gradual snowfall will bring 1-2 feet for the period beginning Wednesday Night through early Sunday
Snow began across much of Vermont early Wednesday but the heavier stuff arrives Wednesday evening as moisture from a very respectable East Coast arrives. Model data gave us a somewhat cruel tease Tuesday by bringing the track of the surface storm closer to Boston and placing much of the Vermont high country into some of the heaviest snow. Data from the European model held firm with the idea that the storm will curl around Cape Cod and ultimately park itself in the Canadian Maritimes for a few days starting Thursday. Not a bad scenario for most of Vermont ski country but we are nonetheless on the edge of some of the best synoptic snow Wednesday night and we are not going to see the thump snow that much of New Jersey, NW Connecticut and parts of Massachusetts will see. Expectations should thus be tempered just a bit.
All that said, steady snow will replace the sporadic snow Wednesday evening and continue through the night and into Thursday morning. The heaviest snow will be southeast of Mad River Glen by almost 100 miles, but 5-10 inches of new snow should present itself to skiers at first tracks time Thursday. The best part of this event involves the continuation of snow, particularly over the high country, throughout the day Thursday and beyond. Though I don't expect the snow to be especially heavy, it will continue to accumulate very gradually and provide an additional 1-3 inches during the day and another 1-3 inches Thursday night.
As mentioned, the low pressure center and much of the upper level support for it, will park itself over the Canadian Maritimes and remain in that vicinity through the weekend. There are surface and upper level impulses that are indicated to pinwheel around this broad area of disorganized storminess. Without getting too bogged down in some of those details, we can expect off and on snow to continue through Friday and into much of the weekend. Whether its snowing and whether its snowing materially will depend on the timing of these aforementioned impulses, but there are indications of accumulating snow almost every period through early Sunday. There are also periods embedded within that time frame where snow is not indicated to fall. So expect the occasional snowfall to continue with a couple inches by first tracks time Friday morning and a couple more Saturday morning. There's a good chance the concept of "partial refills" will continue all the way into Sunday. So, in spite of missing on the thunder-thump snow, slow and steady snowfall will for an excellent stretch where 1-2 feet can be expected between Wednesday night and Sunday morning.
To address some frequently asked questions, lets discuss wind and temperature just a little. Wind won't be an issue for the most part and though I can't speak for every lift in every location I would be surprised if there are major issues. Temperatures at MRG should remain rather steady in the upper 20's over the next several days thanks to the cloud cover and precipitation. Snow consistency should stay powdery over most of the mountain but across the valley locations, expect not only lesser accumulations but gloppier snow.
Moving along, we still have another potential storm to speculate about. This is a system that will gather significant amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture over the weekend but most indications have the bulk of this storm to our south early next week. All is not lost however with this storm or this set up. Blocking in the jet stream persists across the Labrador Sea and will not only help with the "partial refills" this weekend, but will also make it difficult for the storm to make a full escape early next week. Instead, it is likely to get sucked into the Canadian Maritimes like its predecessor allowing moisture to find its way into northern New England in varying scenarios. Temperatures won't be frigid but will likely be a shade below normal through the week meaning well below 32 degree nights and near 32 degree days. I might add that one should expect some changes to the specifics next week.
Temperatures are expected to modify somewhat close to or just after St Patrick's Day but the longer range ensembles have moved to weaken the jet in the Pacific and provide more support for colder weather generally thanks to a negative AO. Winter is likely going to continue through a good chunk of the remainder of March and include another storm of significance between March 18th and 20th.
All that said, steady snow will replace the sporadic snow Wednesday evening and continue through the night and into Thursday morning. The heaviest snow will be southeast of Mad River Glen by almost 100 miles, but 5-10 inches of new snow should present itself to skiers at first tracks time Thursday. The best part of this event involves the continuation of snow, particularly over the high country, throughout the day Thursday and beyond. Though I don't expect the snow to be especially heavy, it will continue to accumulate very gradually and provide an additional 1-3 inches during the day and another 1-3 inches Thursday night.
As mentioned, the low pressure center and much of the upper level support for it, will park itself over the Canadian Maritimes and remain in that vicinity through the weekend. There are surface and upper level impulses that are indicated to pinwheel around this broad area of disorganized storminess. Without getting too bogged down in some of those details, we can expect off and on snow to continue through Friday and into much of the weekend. Whether its snowing and whether its snowing materially will depend on the timing of these aforementioned impulses, but there are indications of accumulating snow almost every period through early Sunday. There are also periods embedded within that time frame where snow is not indicated to fall. So expect the occasional snowfall to continue with a couple inches by first tracks time Friday morning and a couple more Saturday morning. There's a good chance the concept of "partial refills" will continue all the way into Sunday. So, in spite of missing on the thunder-thump snow, slow and steady snowfall will for an excellent stretch where 1-2 feet can be expected between Wednesday night and Sunday morning.
To address some frequently asked questions, lets discuss wind and temperature just a little. Wind won't be an issue for the most part and though I can't speak for every lift in every location I would be surprised if there are major issues. Temperatures at MRG should remain rather steady in the upper 20's over the next several days thanks to the cloud cover and precipitation. Snow consistency should stay powdery over most of the mountain but across the valley locations, expect not only lesser accumulations but gloppier snow.
Moving along, we still have another potential storm to speculate about. This is a system that will gather significant amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture over the weekend but most indications have the bulk of this storm to our south early next week. All is not lost however with this storm or this set up. Blocking in the jet stream persists across the Labrador Sea and will not only help with the "partial refills" this weekend, but will also make it difficult for the storm to make a full escape early next week. Instead, it is likely to get sucked into the Canadian Maritimes like its predecessor allowing moisture to find its way into northern New England in varying scenarios. Temperatures won't be frigid but will likely be a shade below normal through the week meaning well below 32 degree nights and near 32 degree days. I might add that one should expect some changes to the specifics next week.
Temperatures are expected to modify somewhat close to or just after St Patrick's Day but the longer range ensembles have moved to weaken the jet in the Pacific and provide more support for colder weather generally thanks to a negative AO. Winter is likely going to continue through a good chunk of the remainder of March and include another storm of significance between March 18th and 20th.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Vermont to score some decent snowfall late this week with 10-20 inches from Wednesday to Friday
There was a list of 2017-2018 snowfall amounts to date for eastern National Weather Service locations going around the twitter-sphere and Burlington was one of a very select few with below normal snowfall which means the Vermont snow hole is back. One of the reasons the "hole" has been so prevalent is the lack of events like the one we are expecting toward the middle to end of next week. Yes, we finally got one to trend our way and should get the added bonus of some terrain enhanced wrap-around snow, later Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. Ridiculous really that it took so long to score one of these types of events this season.
The northern Plains and Upper Midwest are getting snow and in some locations near blizzard-like conditions thanks to a strong wrapped up weather system that will occlude and gradually decay as it continues to head east. This occlusion will remain important since it will ultimately represent the general area moisture and instability that will park itself over Quebec, southeast Ontario and much of northern New England. The main area of precipitation will be concentrated around an area of low pressure that is expected to form around the Virginia Tidewater region Tuesday night, strengthen and proceed toward the eastern tip of Cape Cod Wednesday night, eventually passing just east of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. This track places the heaviest snow both south and east of Vermont but not by much. Even a 50 mile shift west would place a good chunk of the state into some pretty hefty snowfall with totals up to and exceeding a foot in a very short period of time. Right now it look like snow begins later on Wednesday, continues at a decent clip Wednesday evening and into the night and becomes more sporadic Thursday. But the accumulating snow should continue Thursday, Thursday night, Friday and even into early Saturday as lingering moisture will situate itself across the Green Mountains and will be converted into snowfall thanks to the terrain. I don't expect the snowfall to be especially heavy, but enough to produce 1-3 inch totals Thursday, and 2-4 inch totals Thursday night into Friday. The three day period beginning Wednesday and ending Friday is thus capable of delivering 10-20 inches of fresh snow and maybe even more if we get lucky. Though the consistency of this snow could be a little wet in the valleys, I expect mostly powder above 2000 feet. Regarding wind, this is not as strong of a weather system compared to last week's super'easter but it will nonetheless be breezy late Wednesday with 10-20 mph northeast winds but calmer Thursday and Friday.Temperatures on the hill will generally be in the 20's throughout the late week period both morning and night.
Flurries and snow showers will continue even into Saturday and there may even be some snow on Sunday as well, though amounts, if any will be on the lighter side. Temperatures during the weekend will get into the lower 30's on the hill and fall into the 20's at night. By this point, the focus shifts toward the March 12-15th period for what is expected to be a major east coast jet amplification. What is it about these dates that seem to be so prone to the big events. 1993, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2014 and of course 2017 all were years with big snows at MRG during that time frame. Might 2018 be included in that list? Though it remains very possible since the pattern is ripe for a big event early next week, most of the data Monday has all the storminess well south of Vermont. The hypothetical event is a week out however and many scenarios remain on the table. Below average temperatures, which means mostly below freezing, will continue through all of next week whether we get the big snow or miss it. The mountain and many of the surrounding mountains will get another chance for a storm around St Patrick's Day weekend before the pattern becomes more "unblocked" and the Pacific becomes more active. This is expected to allow for the potential for some thawing by the time we get to March 19th-21st.
The northern Plains and Upper Midwest are getting snow and in some locations near blizzard-like conditions thanks to a strong wrapped up weather system that will occlude and gradually decay as it continues to head east. This occlusion will remain important since it will ultimately represent the general area moisture and instability that will park itself over Quebec, southeast Ontario and much of northern New England. The main area of precipitation will be concentrated around an area of low pressure that is expected to form around the Virginia Tidewater region Tuesday night, strengthen and proceed toward the eastern tip of Cape Cod Wednesday night, eventually passing just east of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. This track places the heaviest snow both south and east of Vermont but not by much. Even a 50 mile shift west would place a good chunk of the state into some pretty hefty snowfall with totals up to and exceeding a foot in a very short period of time. Right now it look like snow begins later on Wednesday, continues at a decent clip Wednesday evening and into the night and becomes more sporadic Thursday. But the accumulating snow should continue Thursday, Thursday night, Friday and even into early Saturday as lingering moisture will situate itself across the Green Mountains and will be converted into snowfall thanks to the terrain. I don't expect the snowfall to be especially heavy, but enough to produce 1-3 inch totals Thursday, and 2-4 inch totals Thursday night into Friday. The three day period beginning Wednesday and ending Friday is thus capable of delivering 10-20 inches of fresh snow and maybe even more if we get lucky. Though the consistency of this snow could be a little wet in the valleys, I expect mostly powder above 2000 feet. Regarding wind, this is not as strong of a weather system compared to last week's super'easter but it will nonetheless be breezy late Wednesday with 10-20 mph northeast winds but calmer Thursday and Friday.Temperatures on the hill will generally be in the 20's throughout the late week period both morning and night.
Flurries and snow showers will continue even into Saturday and there may even be some snow on Sunday as well, though amounts, if any will be on the lighter side. Temperatures during the weekend will get into the lower 30's on the hill and fall into the 20's at night. By this point, the focus shifts toward the March 12-15th period for what is expected to be a major east coast jet amplification. What is it about these dates that seem to be so prone to the big events. 1993, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2014 and of course 2017 all were years with big snows at MRG during that time frame. Might 2018 be included in that list? Though it remains very possible since the pattern is ripe for a big event early next week, most of the data Monday has all the storminess well south of Vermont. The hypothetical event is a week out however and many scenarios remain on the table. Below average temperatures, which means mostly below freezing, will continue through all of next week whether we get the big snow or miss it. The mountain and many of the surrounding mountains will get another chance for a storm around St Patrick's Day weekend before the pattern becomes more "unblocked" and the Pacific becomes more active. This is expected to allow for the potential for some thawing by the time we get to March 19th-21st.
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Somewhat favorable pattern will produce some snow and seasonable temperatures through St Patrick's Day
Meteorologically speaking, the two most impressive events of the season were what many referred to as the "bomb cyclone" that hit on January 4th and the recent super'easter that smacked the I95 corridor with rain, wind and snow this past Friday. Both events grazed Mad River Glen and surrounding northern Vermont with a few inches of snow and wind but saved the best snow for varied locations to our south. In this recent instance, the block in the jet stream, which ultimately positioned itself over the Labrador Sea, was a bit too close to New England and prevented the storm from making the typical northward turn along the coast that most most do. Through about St Patrick's Day, the pattern looks decent, anchored mostly by the aforementioned blocking which will weaken somewhat over the next week. Weak ridging in the jet stream across the west will help yield what I think will be too fairly substantial east coast jet amplifications and this means chances for snow across Vermont over the next two weeks.
A rather unique looking upper air feature will slide southward in between two areas of jet ridging in Canada. There is a little dissension in the data over who gets the best snow out of this on Sunday and Sunday night but the clouds and light snow should be prevalent over the mountains of interior New England. For Vermont, it looks like some periodic light snow late Sunday and Sunday night worthy of about 2-4 inches. Flurries may continue into early Monday but much of the into Tuesday appears mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 30's during the day and 20's at night; in other words, very seasonable. Our next potential snow producer then arrives Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Over the last 4 days or so, very little has changed regarding this system. The central Rockies get hit with a big storm late this weekend and that storm will move out into the central and northern Plains this upcoming week, occlude and weaken. The remnants of the initial storm will spin its way eastward Tuesday and Tuesday night and by Wednesday we should see a bit of activity along the Atlantic Coast. The question now is, how much activity ? A decent coastal low pressure area would have the capability of producing good snows across Vermont in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Without any such low pressure area, the region will have to rely on the instability induced by the old remnants of the initial storm. In either case, the mountains should get some snow but the former case we could get over 10 inches. The "bigger" snow case is the more unlikely one right now unfortunately but still worth watching. The "lesser" snow case isn't a terrible one though since instability could linger all the way until the weekend allowing snow shower to persist across the high country for several days.
As mentioned several times, there isn't much in the way of any intense cold in this pattern, even with the significant jet amplification. All of that is over Europe right now, but seasonable temperatures will continue throughout. The 2nd big jet amplification is then expected around the 1-year anniversary of our great Ides of March storm from last year. Could we pull something off yet again ? Something big is certainly possible though it remains 10 days out and then some.
A rather unique looking upper air feature will slide southward in between two areas of jet ridging in Canada. There is a little dissension in the data over who gets the best snow out of this on Sunday and Sunday night but the clouds and light snow should be prevalent over the mountains of interior New England. For Vermont, it looks like some periodic light snow late Sunday and Sunday night worthy of about 2-4 inches. Flurries may continue into early Monday but much of the into Tuesday appears mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 30's during the day and 20's at night; in other words, very seasonable. Our next potential snow producer then arrives Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Over the last 4 days or so, very little has changed regarding this system. The central Rockies get hit with a big storm late this weekend and that storm will move out into the central and northern Plains this upcoming week, occlude and weaken. The remnants of the initial storm will spin its way eastward Tuesday and Tuesday night and by Wednesday we should see a bit of activity along the Atlantic Coast. The question now is, how much activity ? A decent coastal low pressure area would have the capability of producing good snows across Vermont in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Without any such low pressure area, the region will have to rely on the instability induced by the old remnants of the initial storm. In either case, the mountains should get some snow but the former case we could get over 10 inches. The "bigger" snow case is the more unlikely one right now unfortunately but still worth watching. The "lesser" snow case isn't a terrible one though since instability could linger all the way until the weekend allowing snow shower to persist across the high country for several days.
As mentioned several times, there isn't much in the way of any intense cold in this pattern, even with the significant jet amplification. All of that is over Europe right now, but seasonable temperatures will continue throughout. The 2nd big jet amplification is then expected around the 1-year anniversary of our great Ides of March storm from last year. Could we pull something off yet again ? Something big is certainly possible though it remains 10 days out and then some.
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