Some milder air/rain Sunday is the only blemish on a good looking first 10 days of December then pattern may turn milder for middle of month

With the amazing month of November coming to a close, I wanted to take just a moment to savor what was one of the most stunning stretches of weather I've seen in Vermont. Some have implied that I have been guilty of some wishcasting in the past, but I don't think I would be even capable of wishcasting a month like this, even with 110-percent effort. Most of the state saw temperatures between 4-6 degrees below average, easily the coldest November of this young century and actual temperatures on the mountain averaged between 25-30 degrees depending on elevation. Most locations also doubled their monthly precipitation amounts, which is a somewhat unique element of November 2018 when compared to other unusually cold months in the November-March period. Most importantly though was of course the snowfall which was simply historic. Almost 6-feet across much of the northern Vermont high country and much of it remains firmly in place going into December. Simply driving above 2000 feet gives one a clear sense of the amount of snow on the ground right now and it's also quite a contrast to some low lying areas which saw substantially less snow this month and especially during the very elevations-sensitive recent storm. 

The first half of December promises to bring a bit of everything to the region. There are certainly some signs of trouble during the middle of the month which I will try and detail as best as I can but instinct has been telling me that this will likely be one those years when many warm-ups will get thwarted and that a healthy percentage of the snow that has fallen will help anchor the base for the duration of this winter and into early spring. That's intuition talking and hopefully not too much wishcasting.

In the short term, we will get a small stretch of tranquil weather including some very limited sunshine Friday or at least some decent visibility. Temperatures on the mountain will continue to remain below the freezing mark through most of Saturday when clouds will thicken in advance of a push of milder air. Precipitation will accompany the warm front, arriving early Sunday, perhaps as a brief period of snow and then changing to freezing rain or rain with temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark and eventually rising by the evening. Much of Sunday night will feature readings near 40-degrees which means some limited melting.

Colder air and snow flurries will push back into the region on Monday and although the polar jet has yet to attain any serious strength (it typically doesn't in early December), it will nonetheless begin to have an impact on the regions weather. Snow is likely to fall from at least one clipper-like system sometime during the middle of the week. We are also operating under the assumption that the active southern branch of the jet will keep its activity further south, but this is likely to be a dangerous assumption without an overpowering polar jet so we will have to keep an eye out for that as well. The less-than over-powering polar jet will keep temperatures on the chilly side. Certainly below freezing beginning Monday night, and some single digit overnight temperatures in the middle to later part of the week. The cold is likely to get re-enforced in some fashion for the weekend of December 8th and 9th and we certainly could see some snow along temperatures readings between zero and 20.

Though the colder air is likely going to carry us through at least December 10th, there are now more declarative indications of some key changes in the jet stream in the Pacific. Specifically, that dreaded tightening which is expected to focus much of the unsettled weather on the west coast for a time and allow some of the arctic cold to retreat over the middle to eastern portions of North America. The cold will retreat from middle sections of the U.S. first and will likely linger across New England the longest but the impact stremming from these changes in the Pacific will be pretty widespread and will ultimately lead to a few milder days, even for us, sometime between December 13-20.