Cold returns in the short term but some critical questions remain unanswered for the middle of the month

We had to make a temporary retreat from our trip to fantasy island Sunday as temperatures warmed and snow changed to rain. After a balmy night, colder air will gradually regain control of the region's weather and another extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures will commence beginning Monday afternoon. All of this has been well foretold but we have a nice addition to the incoming cold which comes in the form of a period of light snow during the day Monday. Nothing exceptional is expected but the northern Vermont high country (especially the very norther part) will see one to as much as 4 inches.

No complaints from me since I would trade snow for sun at any point during the ski season, but the sun is something we haven't seen much of going back nearly 10 days now. Our best chance for that comes Tuesday and Wednesday. I am not going to promise a lot, but we should see a few hours each day with better visibility and temperatures generally in the teens and 20's. On Thursday, an incoming clipper system should spread more clouds into the region and eventually bring some light snow. The clipper will also bring a re enforcing shot of stronger arctic cold. This means another day with some sunshine Friday,  but with temperatures hovering in the teens and then approaching the zero-degree mark Friday night.

The outlook for the upcoming weekend (December 8th and 9th) revolves around a potent southern streamer which seems poised to impact some part of the east coast. In truth, most of the weekend across northern New England looks just tranquil and cold. There are hints of a weak disturbance being the catalyst for some light snow Saturday with temperatures recovering into the low 20's after a near zero start. If we get any impact from the aforementioned storm, clouds from this arrive Sunday with precipitation arriving later in the day. Vermont is on the northern end of a range of the possible impact zones but a slightly different interaction of jet stream impulses could change the look of this storm quite dramatically so I would be hesitant to write this one off so early. The polar jet will also be in the process of weakening some around this time keeping the door ajar for east coast storms to make that northward turn under the right circumstances.

The weakening polar jet and retreating arctic air comes in response to a tightening of the jet in the Pacific. This topic has been center of debate activity as it relates to the weather pattern across the central and eastern parts of North America during the middle of December and beyond that into the Xmas holiday. The European model and its ensembles show a more resounding tightening in the jet which is illustrated well when one views how the model is simulating the changes in the MJO phase and EPO index (in both cases it predicts those will turn unfavorable). In this scenario, the pattern would turn more adverse for snow and cold in a very widespread fashion. Both the American GFS and Canadian Ensembles shows considerably less tightening in the Pacific however. The pattern does allow the cold to retreat some by December 11-12th but "El Torchy" would be very subdued and arctic cold would remain somewhat of a factor. No doubt this is a hugely critical question as we head further into December. In spite of the respect I have for the Euro model, I remain optimistic we can avoid much of that outcome for now.