Still expect some snow across the high country for the New Years period and some wintry weather next week in spite of a very less than optimal looking January

A healthy dose of mixed precipitation fell over Vermont Sunday night into early Monday and by Monday afternoon, the warmest part of this storm will be behind us. As expected, a coastal low pressure center has formed and  was re-concentrating the precipitation across much of New England Monday. Between 6-9 pm Monday evening, the lower troposphere should become cold enough to support all snow across northern Vermont and though the heaviest precipitation will be east of the state, 1-2 modest periods of snow should allow for a couple inches by Tuesday morning New Years Eve. Light snow is expected to then continue through the early part of the day followed by some clearing in the later part of the day. Across the valley locations, temperatures will hover close to the freezing mark from Monday through Monday night into early Tuesday. A little sun Tuesday afternoon will likely boost readings past 35 across the low lying areas leaving only the high country as the only locations to consistently remain sub-freezing. A disturbance associated with the now ancient upper level system (ex Dakota blizzard) will bring clouds and more snow showers back to Vermont Tuesday night, just as we approach the dawning of a new decade. This area of snow showers has some potential and I am fully expecting another accumulation by dawn on New Years Day with snow showers and flurries continuing throughout the day.

In accumulation speak, our expectations are roughly the same but with some fine tuned specifics.

2-4 inches Monday night
0-1 Tuesday morning
Sun Tuesday afternoon
2-4 Tuesday night
1-2 Wednesday

This applies to the high country above 2000 feet. Valley locations will get lesser amounts and gloppier amounts of whatever falls.

We can anticipate a drier Thursday with some sunshine and comfortable temperatures that are again expected to exceed the 30-degree mark. Clouds and moisture will then advance back into the region Friday as low pressure organizes in the lower Mississippi Valley and advances northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes. Some uncertainly remains regarding the eventual outcome of this storm which is expected to impact the region late Friday into the weekend. None of the possible outcomes appears especially appetizing though due to the lack of cold air and a less than optimal storm track. The best outcome for us would be for low pressure to again form along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and confine much of the rain and extreme warmth well to our south. The newly released American model is suggesting such and is indicating a near non-event (precipitation-wise) for northern Vermont. Other indications suggest a bit of rain Friday evening. Colder air Saturday night into Sunday should then allow for another period of snow showers with a possible accumulation.

I continue to think the 4-day period between Sunday January 5th and at least Thursday January 9th has some "wintry" potential. Temperatures should stay well below freezing during this stretch and there have been hints (though inconsistent hint) of a significant snow.

Overall however, the weather pattern through the first half of January continues to look lousy with an "evil empire" type ridge in the Pacific and a very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic regions. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index which measures the latter is forecast to surge to +3 in about a week and only very gradually subside (if at all) thereafter. We could certainly use some help from a cycling of the MJO, which for the first half of January will remain in some milder eastern North America phases. It won't persist forever, but it is another reason why a more persistent cold and snow outlook across interior New England is not my expectation through the first 3 weeks of January.