Forecast for weekend storm shifts toward significant snow and that might start an exciting 5 days

The forecast in the near term is rapidly evolving, so rapidly in fact, that it's hard to keep up. Though the weather pattern as a whole looks less than desirable, the part of that outlook that counts the most is the part that's closest to the present. And our next storm which looked undeniably warm for so long has rapidly moved toward a more exciting scenario. With the wintry temperatures that are expected to follow, the period beginning this past Monday and stretching through the middle of next week is now setting up to be our best of the winter so far.

The horses are not quite in the barn yet with the upcoming weekend storm. I say because forecast models have changed so drastically that it would suggest a situation that might continue to change. As of now however, we have a couple of quiet days ahead (Thursday and Friday), with some relatively mild temperatures by day (30's) and no rain or mixed precipitation. The upcoming storm, fueled by subtropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will take shape in the lower Mississippi Valley and track much farther to the south verses earlier expectations. Uncertainty remains regarding the eventual track, with some recent indications showing the storm too far to our south. As mentioned, we don't have any arctic cold to work with on the front end of this storm and when precipitation arrives to all east coast locations, it is likely to fall as rain. We do have more cold air to work with on the back end of this storm, and if we get the help that is being somewhat indicated with the track, we should get an assist from the Atlantic Ocean which will allow the storm to intensify along the New England coastline late Saturday into early Sunday. Rain early Saturday would change to snow during the day and could accumulate substantially during the evening, at night and into the ski day Sunday. If all things go right we could score over a foot, if a few things go right it's 4-12, and if the storm continues to trend further south (or reverses and heads much farther north) we could get a disappointing result. Undoubtedly this is a much better set of options than what we had a few days ago. And on a weekend no less !!

And the good news just continues into next week, a period that already looked wintry for the past several days. As our weekend storm continues to strengthen upon exiting on Sunday, we will be left with blustery conditions late Sunday into Sunday night into Monday but with a tolerable temperature range of 12-24 degrees. Winds should subside as Monday progresses and a short period of tranquil weather will follow for Monday night into Tuesday. We then have another potential winter storm for the middle of next week. It might be merely a clipper that gets the New England coastline booster shot or we might receive an infusion of southern stream moisture. Either way, the impact time appears to be Tuesday night, Wednesday and maybe Thursday. Still could also be a dud I would be surprised if a worse case scenario is less than 3 inches during the middle of next week.

And yes, the pattern doesn't look especially great. The jet stream in the Pacific appears strong, the jet in the arctic looks unblocked and the temperature signal appears to be warm beginning around January 10 and extending beyond the middle of January. With that said, temperatures over the upcoming week won't particularly cold, but cold enough.