One storm down and another on the way, just in time for the weekend honoring MLK !

Suddenly you were gone

From all the lives you left your mark upon

I remember, 

The shouts of joy

Skiing fast through the woods 

I hear the echoes

I learned your love of life

I feel the way that you would 

I feel your presence

I remember...

Of the many written tributes to Neil, my favorite might be the one by Bret Stephens in the New York Times a few days ago. Though I have taken issue with Mr. Stephens on many of his opinions relating to climate change or environmental policy, I thought this was really on the mark. There are so many different life settings where some Neil Peart  lyric pops into my head. The song above "Afterimage"which is a lesser known track off the Grace Under Pressure album deals with the emotions of "loss" but uses a setting very familiar to us. Speaking of the environment, Neil also wrote many environmentally cognizant songs yet routinely brought folks of varying opinions into his music and concerts. These days you have to respect that.

One storm down and another on the way and just in time for a weekend honoring MLK and that's about as far as my poetry skills can take me I am sorry to say. Some very early blue sky and temperatures around -10 Saturday morning will give way to clouds. The latest indications are that we shouldn't see much snow during the ski day Saturday but with winds subsiding to 5-15 mph, it will feel much more tolerable on the hill, especially in the afternoon when actual temps rise into the teens. The snow should begin between 4-6 PM. This is a very garden variety event for us. The storm will pass to our north but the threat of a warm-up is eliminated thanks to an occlusion. Look like a solid 4-8 inch storm Saturday night with some additional snow showers Sunday bringing another 1-3. Sunday will be blustery and a little chilly but nothing like this past Friday. Readings will actually be fairly close to normal.

I am not entirely thrilled with the way the pattern appears to be evolving though it certainly doesn't appear terrible - perhaps just mediocre. The week beginning MLK day begins an extended dry period that should take us through Friday. Should be a few sunny days in that stretch and through Thursday we should be able to keep readings well below freezing but also well out of the "intolerable-range". Storminess off the Carolina coastline should help keep the northeast in a general area of "sinking air" and though more clouds are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. The snowfall outlook is on the low side. My disappointment in the pattern relates to the eastern Pacific. We just have not been able to keep that jet stream in check this year. Basically, when the stream is consolidated and flowing in a fast west to east trajectory over that longitudinal region, it can overload the western US with unsettled weather and act as a blockade for any southward advancing arctic air in Canada.

This situation doesn't appear dire however, just not ideal. The jet stream in the eastern Pacific will be strong enough to keep the EPO positive but not very positive. At the same time the southern branch of the stream appears strong enough to prevent any sustainable above-freezing weather. The outlook has moved in a warmer direction and this ensures that January 2020 will be one of the warmest Jan's in 14 years but there are no indications of another highly damaging thaw. The temperatures outlook has certainly warmed late in the upcoming week but modified polar chill is expected to push back somewhat during the last weekend in January. This happens just as the storm threat rises next weekend. The possible outcomes with this storm are still many and one of those outcomes is a total miss. Any storm next weekend also shouldn't be the last chance for snow in January. The pattern does still appear capable of giving us another chance of something before we turn the calendar to February.