Our Thursday snow looks better all the time, like 6-12 inches better and MLK weekend event expected to modestly produce !

As the sun goes down on the western shore

The wind blows hard from the east

It whips the sand into a flying spindrift, spindrift

As the sun goes down on the western shore

It makes me feel uneasy

In the hot dry rasp of the devil winds

Who cares what a fool believes 

Neil Peart wrote that song, "Spindrift" in 2007 after resettling out near Los Angeles and beginning a new life there. He had suffered unimaginable tragedy in the late 90's while still residing in Canada, losing his daughter and then wife in a span of a year. Given the setting of his new life, I quickly realized that Neil was referring to the Santa Ana wind - an east wind that blows hot off the San Gabriel and San Bernadino mountain ranges surrounding the LA basin. In this case the Santa Ana wind was used as a metaphor, and Neil often used weather metaphorically to express an idea or thought. This is another reason he will be missed so much by fans such as myself. Sorry to dwell on it but Neil is probably worth at least one more tribute (in my next update) given the high regard I continue to hold his contributions to music and so much more.

There are no Santa Ana winds in our future fortunately. Chinook and Santa Ana are of the same breed - they blow hard and hot down a mountain and melt snow with great efficiency. Sometime the MRV can get an intense dry south to southwest wind that blows off Lincoln Peak and can exhibit similarities to those intense winds across the western United States. This also is not in our future; instead, we have two snow events. The first looks better all the time. Though not a particularly moist system to start, the storm approaching us Wednesday evening at night will pick up a bit of moisture from the Atlantic and track near the Vermont/Mass border early Thursday morning. This is a big improvement compared to the forecast two days ago and places MRG in one of the best zones for snow with this modest system. Snow will begin after midnight and continue into the ski day Thursday. As the storm exits, winds are expected to turn and become north to northwesterly which should provide us with some Champlain enhanced terrain induced snow Thursday afternoon, evening and at night. When all is said and done, the high country surrounding the MRV is in one of the best spots for accumulations not only in the state but quite possibly throughout the entire interior northeast (though we are in close competition with parts of coastal Maine). By Friday morning, I am more confident of a 6-12 inch storm total. It may not be enough to get the woods completely how we would want it, but it should go along way ! 

The snow consistency with our upcoming storm will be a little wet at the start, especially across the lower elevations. Colder air, ushered in by those north to northwest winds will allow anything that falls late Thursday and Thursday night to be powdery. Actually, some of the coldest weather of the season is expected to arrive Thursday night and strong northerly winds early Friday will bring wind chill temperatures to 30 -50 below zero. Actual temps are likely to struggle above zero Friday, at least on the mountain itself. The arctic chill will be cemented in place as our next storm arrives during the day Saturday. Temperatures will start out near 10 below and will only climb into the teens as snow begins to fall during the afternoon. This 2nd storm still appears to be a more formidable weather feature as a whole but it's a quick hitter and will be occluded as it proceeds up the St Lawrence Valley Saturday night. Expectations for the weekend storm should thus be tempered to the 4-8 inch category though snows showers on Sunday could add to those totals in at least a small way. 

Chilly high pressure is expected to slowly build across the region next week. Chilly in that temperatures will stay below normal, but the intensity of the cold appears soft by January standards with maximum temperatures in the teens and low 20's and low temperatures in the 0-15 degree range. Action off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the mid-week period may help keep the interior sections of the northeast dry and at least a little sunny. Our next shot at a significant storm arrives next weekend, the first of what could be an increase in southern branch activity. 

The pattern as a whole continues to look marginally favorable for the rest of January. This of course is excellent news since overwhelming patterns in January do have a propensity to disappoint on the snowfall side. I continue to be a little nervous however regarding our inability to completely destroy the active eastern Pacific and it certainly appears unlikely now that we can establish a sustainable ridge over Alaska. A few days ago it was suggested that we might be able to do just that. So the signal to consists of normalish temperatures with a higher risk for big storms during the final week of January. This is of course excellent but the door is not closed on the possibility of a one-day mild intrusion since the cold doesn't appear capable of locking itself over us for any extended period of time.