We mostly missed out on all the lake effect snow Friday. The "superband" that was speculated to perhaps impact the MRV impacted the very northern part of the state only. We made up for the miss however with a beautiful over-performance on Thursday. Rain changed to snow about as fast as we could possibly hope for and the snow continued well into the afternoon and evening which was well beyond my expectations for when it might abate. Certainly a terrific way to finish a relatively good month in northern Vermont and a very good month when one considers the bad pattern fundamentals we were up against. These bad pattern fundamentals resulted in only a trace of snow being recorded in the major cities of Philadelphia and New York during the month of February and only half inch in Boston.
Winter-like temperatures will be with us through the weekend as advertised but the region has to face the music from more bad pattern fundamentals by the middle of the upcoming week. Clouds and a few snow flurries will continue Saturday and winds will stay persistently strong though slightly weaker than what we saw Friday. Temperatures on the mountain Saturday are likely to be confined to the teens. We can expect a bit more sun for Sunday with temperatures near 20 during the afternoon. The winds will again subside a bit but won't subside all together. Dress warm if you're heading out this weekend.
Temperatures are expected to warm back toward the freezing mark by Monday and will be above the freezing mark for a good part of the middle of the week. The latest model data suggests that mid-week temperatures, though mild, won't reach excessive levels and we even have a chance at avoiding much of the wet weather. The idea of rain is very predicated on a potent southern branch feature and whether it evolves into a highly amplified east coast storm or simply passes innocently well to our south. The trend over the past couple cycles of data is that this storm and much of the associated rain will pass to our south. Temperatures would thus spend some time above freezing in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame but might stay below 40 across the high elevations.
A push of colder temperatures will arrive in time for the first full weekend in March and this might be accompanied by some snow. The colder, mostly sub-freezing temperatures stretch will persist through the weekend but ensembles have been persistently building a large ridge along the east coast. It wasn't a pattern that was going to deliver us any sustained cold anyway and then we will have the added impact of a negative PNA which will focus the unsettled weather on the west. It could lead to a few days of corn-horn skiing in the March 9th to March 14th time frame though its certainly too early to say for sure.
Friday, February 28, 2020
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Temperatures look a touch warmer early Thursday cutting snowfall accumulations to 2-5 inches, with another few powdery inches coming Friday
Here is a short update on our approaching winter storm. The marginal temperatures continue to be a concern, especially as the heavier precipitation commences Thursday morning. The latest data is indicating an above freezing layer of about 1000-2000 feet for a few hours around 7 AM , enough to allow for a few hours of rain early Thursday before precipitation changes to snow starting at the high elevations first and lower elevations last. I think MRG can still score 2-5 inches of snow Thursday with the snow falling of a wetter consistency initially and then more powdery as temperatures cool by late morning. The heavy stuff will come and go very quickly Thursday and much of the afternoon will simply be mostly cloudy. On the whole, this storm won't come together quite as I had hoped. Our much needed coastal storm will develop, but is never indicated to consume all of this system's energy.
The storm and the arctic air that follows is expected to create an impressive lake effect snow event downwind of both Lake Erie and Ontario. Models are keying in on a band of snow that is expected to take shape east of Lake Ontario and extend across the Adirondacks and into parts of Vermont. Snow showers are likely Thursday night, Friday and Friday night but areas of Vermont that are under this band will do especially well. MRG appears reasonably well positioned to receive some of the snow from such a band but this is a really tough call regarding what area does the best. It could depend on a span of 10 miles or even less. If I had to guess on a snowfall range for Thursday night into Friday, it would be for another 2-5 inches but it could be more or less. Temperatures on the mountain will be close to 20 Friday with blustery southwest winds.
No changes for the weekend forecast with flurries Saturday and a bit more sun for Sunday. Temperatures both days will struggle to get out of the teens.
Still concerned about a big warmup for the middle part of next week. We could avoid the worst of it but some significant melt is nonetheless likely.
The storm and the arctic air that follows is expected to create an impressive lake effect snow event downwind of both Lake Erie and Ontario. Models are keying in on a band of snow that is expected to take shape east of Lake Ontario and extend across the Adirondacks and into parts of Vermont. Snow showers are likely Thursday night, Friday and Friday night but areas of Vermont that are under this band will do especially well. MRG appears reasonably well positioned to receive some of the snow from such a band but this is a really tough call regarding what area does the best. It could depend on a span of 10 miles or even less. If I had to guess on a snowfall range for Thursday night into Friday, it would be for another 2-5 inches but it could be more or less. Temperatures on the mountain will be close to 20 Friday with blustery southwest winds.
No changes for the weekend forecast with flurries Saturday and a bit more sun for Sunday. Temperatures both days will struggle to get out of the teens.
Still concerned about a big warmup for the middle part of next week. We could avoid the worst of it but some significant melt is nonetheless likely.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Wet, elevation sensitive snowfall appears likely Thursday followed by snow showers and a wintry weekend
Terrific stretch of sunshine came to an end Tuesday on the mountain. Temperatures continue to run well above average and above freezing across most parts of the state with the exception being the highest of the high country. We have a decent looking storm preparing for arrival and a lot of marginal temperatures to make for a tricky forecast.
Northerly winds Tuesday night into early Wednesday will help bring those above-freezing temperatures back toward 30 by Wednesday morning. There will also be a bit of light precipitation falling and indications are that it will be falling as snow. The snow will likely amount to about an inch or two total and be on the gloppier side before ending sometime in the late afternoon hours. It will then remain cloudy overnight as the main event approaches. Temperatures will likely hover right around the freezing mark on the mountain and remain slightly above that level across valley areas.
Regarding this main event, the forecast has trended in the right direction though we need to move further in that direction for something truly ideal. A consolidated area of low pressure will track from Appalachia toward New York State while transitioning some of its energy to the New England coastline. An ideal scenario would involve a faster and more explosive transition but some is better than none and the some might be just enough to keep those marginal temperatures from becoming tool mild, though I have to say it is very, very close. The break in the precipitation should extend through all or most of Wednesday night with heavier precipitation arriving around dawn Thursday. I would expect temperatures in the valley to be in that 34-38 degree range as this is happening while readings are right at the freezing mark from 2000 feet on up. That lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere appears to be right at the freezing mark at the onset of the heavy precipitation which would indicate to me that a snowy morning on the mountain is predicated on a heavy precipitation intensity. As we progress through Thursday however the situation will improve and temperatures, especially in those high elevations will gradually come down. Snow will taper to flurries by late afternoon or evening as readings continue to fall. I want to go full optimistic mode and predict a foot out of all this but those temperature cross sections in the morning are simply too close for comfort. I also want to stress how elevation sensitive the situation is likely to be Thursday both in terms of precipitation type, snowfall accumulations and snow consistency though us MRG and Vermont ski veterans have seen this movie before and are aware of how to play this hand of poker.
By Friday morning, the marginal temperatures will be a thing of the past. It will blustery and chilly with temperatures hovering in the high teens. We should also see continuous snow showers both late Thursday night into most of the day Friday. The instability appears a bit shallow at first and best by Friday afternoon and evening. The wind direction be west or just south of west throughout Friday which is ok for the MRG lifts but not as favorable for us receiving a heavy and continuous dose of snow showers. The Adirondacks and far northern Greens appear best positioned to make those most of this set up but I would still expect a few powdery inches Friday and a small additional accumulation Friday night into early Saturday. The weekend will remain wintry as initially advertised with clouds, some sun, some flurries and some wind on Saturday (High 15-20) and more sun and a bit less wind for Sunday with a high near 20.
If you've been reading the last few updates, my feelings on early March as a whole are not especially optimistic. This sentiment continues but we have moved in a lightly less mild direction today. We are still up against this ultra-persistent positive AO and will thus have a limited amount of arctic cold at our disposal. Over the past 12-24 hours though, ensembles have begun to indicate a large upper level feature several hundred miles off the California coast. This actually has the impact of weakening the action in the Pacific and EPO forecasts have responded by appearing more neutral 10-14 days out. Next week will start on the cold side but quickly warm and become either somewhat or very mild by the middle of next week. 2 days ago that mild weather was shown to extend into the first full weekend of March (7th-8th) but that forecast period does appear colder now. Overall though, it still doesn't appear especially favorable for the first 10 days of the month and it's a lot more trying to survive marginal pattern fundamentals in March as opposed to February.
Northerly winds Tuesday night into early Wednesday will help bring those above-freezing temperatures back toward 30 by Wednesday morning. There will also be a bit of light precipitation falling and indications are that it will be falling as snow. The snow will likely amount to about an inch or two total and be on the gloppier side before ending sometime in the late afternoon hours. It will then remain cloudy overnight as the main event approaches. Temperatures will likely hover right around the freezing mark on the mountain and remain slightly above that level across valley areas.
Regarding this main event, the forecast has trended in the right direction though we need to move further in that direction for something truly ideal. A consolidated area of low pressure will track from Appalachia toward New York State while transitioning some of its energy to the New England coastline. An ideal scenario would involve a faster and more explosive transition but some is better than none and the some might be just enough to keep those marginal temperatures from becoming tool mild, though I have to say it is very, very close. The break in the precipitation should extend through all or most of Wednesday night with heavier precipitation arriving around dawn Thursday. I would expect temperatures in the valley to be in that 34-38 degree range as this is happening while readings are right at the freezing mark from 2000 feet on up. That lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere appears to be right at the freezing mark at the onset of the heavy precipitation which would indicate to me that a snowy morning on the mountain is predicated on a heavy precipitation intensity. As we progress through Thursday however the situation will improve and temperatures, especially in those high elevations will gradually come down. Snow will taper to flurries by late afternoon or evening as readings continue to fall. I want to go full optimistic mode and predict a foot out of all this but those temperature cross sections in the morning are simply too close for comfort. I also want to stress how elevation sensitive the situation is likely to be Thursday both in terms of precipitation type, snowfall accumulations and snow consistency though us MRG and Vermont ski veterans have seen this movie before and are aware of how to play this hand of poker.
By Friday morning, the marginal temperatures will be a thing of the past. It will blustery and chilly with temperatures hovering in the high teens. We should also see continuous snow showers both late Thursday night into most of the day Friday. The instability appears a bit shallow at first and best by Friday afternoon and evening. The wind direction be west or just south of west throughout Friday which is ok for the MRG lifts but not as favorable for us receiving a heavy and continuous dose of snow showers. The Adirondacks and far northern Greens appear best positioned to make those most of this set up but I would still expect a few powdery inches Friday and a small additional accumulation Friday night into early Saturday. The weekend will remain wintry as initially advertised with clouds, some sun, some flurries and some wind on Saturday (High 15-20) and more sun and a bit less wind for Sunday with a high near 20.
If you've been reading the last few updates, my feelings on early March as a whole are not especially optimistic. This sentiment continues but we have moved in a lightly less mild direction today. We are still up against this ultra-persistent positive AO and will thus have a limited amount of arctic cold at our disposal. Over the past 12-24 hours though, ensembles have begun to indicate a large upper level feature several hundred miles off the California coast. This actually has the impact of weakening the action in the Pacific and EPO forecasts have responded by appearing more neutral 10-14 days out. Next week will start on the cold side but quickly warm and become either somewhat or very mild by the middle of next week. 2 days ago that mild weather was shown to extend into the first full weekend of March (7th-8th) but that forecast period does appear colder now. Overall though, it still doesn't appear especially favorable for the first 10 days of the month and it's a lot more trying to survive marginal pattern fundamentals in March as opposed to February.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Mid-week storm could use a bit of help and so does the pattern in early March
The weekend finished spring-like across Vermont ski-country thanks to a strong dose of February sunshine. Most areas below 2500 feet finally broke the 40-degree barrier for the first time since January 12th though very low lying areas, especially in the immediate Champlain Valley, have done so a few times since.
Unfortunately this won't be the most optimistic update of the season, which isn't exactly saying a lot for it at all this season. The forecast as a whole simply looks a little milder and it starts this week which will start with a bit of sun on Monday morning, more clouds Monday afternoon and temperatures climbing again into the 40's. Tuesday will be a cloudier and slightly cooler version of Monday but temperatures across low lying areas will again spend lots of time above freezing.
The storm we've been watching is still worthy of watching. It's a big southern Rocky Mountain snow producer this past weekend and will gradually decay as it moves from the southern plains to the Ohio Valley early this week. A weak area of precipitation associated with this storm is expected to reach much of the state by Wednesday morning with very marginal temperatures. Low lying areas will likely see rain from this with mixed precipitation or wet gloppy snow higher up. The real question relates to the evolution of this system as it interacts with the coastline late Wednesday. To put it plainly, we need a coastal explosion which will have the effect of providing some much needed natural born cooling for this storm and preventing the bulk of the energy from tracking up through New York state. Forecast model data does the coastal transition but we will need a stronger, more dramatic one to get a bit snow event across the northern Vermont ski country. At face value, forecast data is showing more of a rain to wet snow situation Wednesday night with a small gloppy accumulation above 2500 feet. That face value is likely to change however over the next day or two so stay tuned. Additionally, the best party of this storm is the deep instability pool which will move over interior New England later Thursday and bring with it both snow showers and colder temperatures. I would expect at least a few inches of powdery snow but hard to pinpoint a more specific range right now.
Snow showers should continue through Saturday and the month will finish with a few days of wintry-like temperatures and some wind. Friday's temps will be near 20 and will likely stay below 20 through the entire day Saturday. The cold weather will linger through Sunday and Monday, two days which should feature more sunshine but as mentioned in the last update, the pattern will revert back to its well-established 2020 personality. In this case it might mean an even stronger evil empire in the Pacific and a continuation of a positive AO setup in the arctic. I don't see a March 2012 or 2016 on the horizon but the action will shift to the west around the time of March 4th and the door will swing wide open for at least some mild weather up and down the east coast. We survived a marginal pattern throughout February but its hard to do the same in March. We will need help and I don't see much of it coming through March 10th.
Unfortunately this won't be the most optimistic update of the season, which isn't exactly saying a lot for it at all this season. The forecast as a whole simply looks a little milder and it starts this week which will start with a bit of sun on Monday morning, more clouds Monday afternoon and temperatures climbing again into the 40's. Tuesday will be a cloudier and slightly cooler version of Monday but temperatures across low lying areas will again spend lots of time above freezing.
The storm we've been watching is still worthy of watching. It's a big southern Rocky Mountain snow producer this past weekend and will gradually decay as it moves from the southern plains to the Ohio Valley early this week. A weak area of precipitation associated with this storm is expected to reach much of the state by Wednesday morning with very marginal temperatures. Low lying areas will likely see rain from this with mixed precipitation or wet gloppy snow higher up. The real question relates to the evolution of this system as it interacts with the coastline late Wednesday. To put it plainly, we need a coastal explosion which will have the effect of providing some much needed natural born cooling for this storm and preventing the bulk of the energy from tracking up through New York state. Forecast model data does the coastal transition but we will need a stronger, more dramatic one to get a bit snow event across the northern Vermont ski country. At face value, forecast data is showing more of a rain to wet snow situation Wednesday night with a small gloppy accumulation above 2500 feet. That face value is likely to change however over the next day or two so stay tuned. Additionally, the best party of this storm is the deep instability pool which will move over interior New England later Thursday and bring with it both snow showers and colder temperatures. I would expect at least a few inches of powdery snow but hard to pinpoint a more specific range right now.
Snow showers should continue through Saturday and the month will finish with a few days of wintry-like temperatures and some wind. Friday's temps will be near 20 and will likely stay below 20 through the entire day Saturday. The cold weather will linger through Sunday and Monday, two days which should feature more sunshine but as mentioned in the last update, the pattern will revert back to its well-established 2020 personality. In this case it might mean an even stronger evil empire in the Pacific and a continuation of a positive AO setup in the arctic. I don't see a March 2012 or 2016 on the horizon but the action will shift to the west around the time of March 4th and the door will swing wide open for at least some mild weather up and down the east coast. We survived a marginal pattern throughout February but its hard to do the same in March. We will need help and I don't see much of it coming through March 10th.
Friday, February 21, 2020
Happy bluebird Friday ! We start next week on the mild side but will finish on the cold and hopefully very snowy side
The final numbers have yet to be aggregated but the Arctic Oscillation for the month of February is likely to average well over an index of "3" and close to a record for any winter month. Interestingly, most of the MRV and particularly the high country has yet to record a day over 40 degrees which is remarkable given these circumstances. That statistical feat will get tested early next week but it appears as if we can get through the month without a devastating thaw and or a stretch of excessive temperatures. Interesting that the current year is comparing rather similarly to 1988-89 in Vermont which also featured a persistent very positive AO and had glaring lack of snowfall in more populated coastal sections of the northeast and most of the mid-Atlantic. 1989-90 also featured a very positive AO in February and the results were much worse for snow in Vermont, especially as the calendar turned to March. Lets hope that history doesn't repeat for this March and lets hope that history doesn't repeat for next year.
Friday was a spectacular bluebird day for Vermont ski country after a very cold -15 degree start. We can expect a bit more of a breeze Saturday but that wind will help boost temperatures toward 30 with the help of another decent dose of sunshine. We can expect more clouds to finish out the weekend Sunday but it will again be precipitation-free and temperatures should sneak above the freezing mark, at least in areas close the base. If we do indeed break that 40-degree barrier, it will happen Monday and it will only happen again across low lying areas, below 2000 feet. Looks to be a pretty innocuous mild day though with clouds, a few peaks of sunshine, a slight breeze and no precipitation.
We are then contending with the very difficult but potentially exciting forecast in the in the middle to end of next week. Forecast models have yet to settle on an exact solution, which, being that we are still 4-6 days out, is a lot of ask but these same forecast models do agree on the notion of a sizable east coast precipitation event. Vermont will have a minimal amount of cold air to work with at the start of this event, a lot more at the finish and our end result will be very dependent on the track of a strong, consolidated area of low pressure Thursday. The event might commence as early as late Tuesday however with some light precipitation (probably snow) as this system begins its slow approach. This storm, unlike many of its predecessors, is a southern streamer. Initially it will impact us as a somewhat strung out version of its original self. Eventually however, an amplifying pattern along the east coast will give this storm a big 2nd life with a more consolidated area of low pressure developing in the mid-Atlantic region and eventually tracking through New England as one of the stronger weather events of the winter. There have been differing opinions regarding where this storm will track and that is the ultimate question. Some recent forecast models take the storm over New York state which would mean a changeover to rain at some point. There's also been other forecast data indicating a track closer to the coast which would mean an event predominantly snow. Either way, the storm is strong enough to produce a snowy finish and some decent accumulations heading into the weekend. We should be able to get all of these forecast wrinkles ironed out in a few days.
The jet amplification and storm should ensure a cold finish to Feb which includes snow showers Friday and cold weather through the weekend. This is the good news. The bad news is that the pattern for early March, after March 1st appears more likely to revert back to the trends that have plagued this winter. The jet stream in the Pacific appears angrier and tighter, the AO will resort to its more typical 2020 self. It's pretty frustrating honestly but its been that kind of year. At least we have a decent shot of pulling off something decent next week, we deserve it !
Friday was a spectacular bluebird day for Vermont ski country after a very cold -15 degree start. We can expect a bit more of a breeze Saturday but that wind will help boost temperatures toward 30 with the help of another decent dose of sunshine. We can expect more clouds to finish out the weekend Sunday but it will again be precipitation-free and temperatures should sneak above the freezing mark, at least in areas close the base. If we do indeed break that 40-degree barrier, it will happen Monday and it will only happen again across low lying areas, below 2000 feet. Looks to be a pretty innocuous mild day though with clouds, a few peaks of sunshine, a slight breeze and no precipitation.
We are then contending with the very difficult but potentially exciting forecast in the in the middle to end of next week. Forecast models have yet to settle on an exact solution, which, being that we are still 4-6 days out, is a lot of ask but these same forecast models do agree on the notion of a sizable east coast precipitation event. Vermont will have a minimal amount of cold air to work with at the start of this event, a lot more at the finish and our end result will be very dependent on the track of a strong, consolidated area of low pressure Thursday. The event might commence as early as late Tuesday however with some light precipitation (probably snow) as this system begins its slow approach. This storm, unlike many of its predecessors, is a southern streamer. Initially it will impact us as a somewhat strung out version of its original self. Eventually however, an amplifying pattern along the east coast will give this storm a big 2nd life with a more consolidated area of low pressure developing in the mid-Atlantic region and eventually tracking through New England as one of the stronger weather events of the winter. There have been differing opinions regarding where this storm will track and that is the ultimate question. Some recent forecast models take the storm over New York state which would mean a changeover to rain at some point. There's also been other forecast data indicating a track closer to the coast which would mean an event predominantly snow. Either way, the storm is strong enough to produce a snowy finish and some decent accumulations heading into the weekend. We should be able to get all of these forecast wrinkles ironed out in a few days.
The jet amplification and storm should ensure a cold finish to Feb which includes snow showers Friday and cold weather through the weekend. This is the good news. The bad news is that the pattern for early March, after March 1st appears more likely to revert back to the trends that have plagued this winter. The jet stream in the Pacific appears angrier and tighter, the AO will resort to its more typical 2020 self. It's pretty frustrating honestly but its been that kind of year. At least we have a decent shot of pulling off something decent next week, we deserve it !
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
A few days cold, a few days non-excessively mild over the next 7 days and maybe some fun toward the end of next week
The northern Vermont high country was refreshed with a half-hearted snow event Tuesday. The southeasterly cross winds were a bit unfortunate since it is that direction which can limit the single chair, operationally speaking. A light additional accumulation of combined snow and some wintry mix stuff can be expected Tuesday evening ahead of what will be a blustery and chilly Wednesday. This time winds will be northwesterly and a bit stronger up and down the mountain but temperatures will hold steady around the 20-degree mark before falling very late in the day. In other words, we've seen stronger cold. There is just enough instability for flurries or snow showers but the shallow nature of this instability will limit snowfall potential to about an inch or two either late in the day Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Flurries might even linger into Thursday but the cold air and a continuation of the gusty winds will be the bigger story. Temperatures on the mountain might not reach 10 and winds will make it feel well below zero. Friday will be a bit more comfortable thanks to a stronger dose of sunshine and less intense winds. Temperatures Friday afternoon should approach 20. The upcoming weekend will have an early March feel to it even though its only February 22nd and 23rd. We are not expecting any significant precipitation and temperatures will oscillate between the teens during the overnight hours to near or just above the freezing mark each afternoon. Saturday appears to be the sunnier of the two weekend days though some forecast changes are still possible.
Next week is starting to look more interesting overall. Though our mild weather concerns remain in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, temperatures will not reach excessive levels and may remain below the 40-degree mark throughout this period. Models are showing the possibility for some precipitation and a higher likelihood of clouds (which will help limit temperatures), but northern New England is likely to receive a peripheral impact from chillier temperatures up in Canada; which, more than anything else, will limit any mild flow of air. As we progress through next week, Vermont will begin to experience the more favorable impacts of a neutralized weather pattern. The tightened jet in the Pacific (+EPO) has tag teamed with the unblocked Arctic (+AO) and made a wintry life very difficult for many east coast locations. By the end of next week, the EPO is expected to relax enough and even sneak into negative territory while the AO will remain positive but will at least be less positive. In the aggregate, the teleconnection indices will be as neutral as they've been in sometime and a temporary establishment of a ridge across western Canada will open the door for what could be some interesting east coast activity around Thursday Feb 27th. There are strong signs of both an east coast amplification and a storm and the question from here relates to whether such an east coast storm can materialize and where. By far though, this is the best set of larger scale pattern fundamentals we have seen in a while. We've held our own in Vermont without much help this month and perhaps we can finally get a little help to end the month.
The trend of a more neutralized set of pattern fundamentals and teleconnections will continue into early March. It would be dishonest to call the pattern categorically favorable, but it does look at least neutral and ripe for more storminess. More specifically speaking we can probably expect another round of relative chill on Friday February 28th into the leap-year weekend and then perhaps maybe another precipitation event of some sort sometime in the March 2nd to 4th period.
Flurries might even linger into Thursday but the cold air and a continuation of the gusty winds will be the bigger story. Temperatures on the mountain might not reach 10 and winds will make it feel well below zero. Friday will be a bit more comfortable thanks to a stronger dose of sunshine and less intense winds. Temperatures Friday afternoon should approach 20. The upcoming weekend will have an early March feel to it even though its only February 22nd and 23rd. We are not expecting any significant precipitation and temperatures will oscillate between the teens during the overnight hours to near or just above the freezing mark each afternoon. Saturday appears to be the sunnier of the two weekend days though some forecast changes are still possible.
Next week is starting to look more interesting overall. Though our mild weather concerns remain in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, temperatures will not reach excessive levels and may remain below the 40-degree mark throughout this period. Models are showing the possibility for some precipitation and a higher likelihood of clouds (which will help limit temperatures), but northern New England is likely to receive a peripheral impact from chillier temperatures up in Canada; which, more than anything else, will limit any mild flow of air. As we progress through next week, Vermont will begin to experience the more favorable impacts of a neutralized weather pattern. The tightened jet in the Pacific (+EPO) has tag teamed with the unblocked Arctic (+AO) and made a wintry life very difficult for many east coast locations. By the end of next week, the EPO is expected to relax enough and even sneak into negative territory while the AO will remain positive but will at least be less positive. In the aggregate, the teleconnection indices will be as neutral as they've been in sometime and a temporary establishment of a ridge across western Canada will open the door for what could be some interesting east coast activity around Thursday Feb 27th. There are strong signs of both an east coast amplification and a storm and the question from here relates to whether such an east coast storm can materialize and where. By far though, this is the best set of larger scale pattern fundamentals we have seen in a while. We've held our own in Vermont without much help this month and perhaps we can finally get a little help to end the month.
The trend of a more neutralized set of pattern fundamentals and teleconnections will continue into early March. It would be dishonest to call the pattern categorically favorable, but it does look at least neutral and ripe for more storminess. More specifically speaking we can probably expect another round of relative chill on Friday February 28th into the leap-year weekend and then perhaps maybe another precipitation event of some sort sometime in the March 2nd to 4th period.
Sunday, February 16, 2020
Can't promise a big snow but we can expect almost all snow late Tuesday to go along with a wintry week
Temperatures topped out right around the freezing mark at the base of Mad River Glen and Sugarbush Sunday afternoon, but just as advertised, the upcoming holiday week is expected to stay wintry and decidedly sub-freezing. Arctic high pressure is expected to build across northern New England Monday and should allow for modest amounts of sunshine to celebrate Washington's birthday along with temperatures near 20. We can expect a bit of wind most of the day, generally in the 10-15 mph range with a few higher gusts. Those winds will die out Monday night and allow temperatures to fall back toward zero before clouds arrive from our upcoming Tuesday storm system.
This next storm will attract a bit of both subtropical and Atlantic ocean moisture but is never expected to evolve into anything substantial. That said, precipitation with this system is expected to stay predominantly snow thanks to the somewhat stronger dome of cold (verses initial expectations) in place late Monday and early Tuesday and a weak area of low pressure that will develop near coastal New England Tuesday which will pinch off a good chunk of the mid-level warm surge. Precipitation will start as powdery snow and pretty much stay powdery snow late in the ski day Tuesday into the evening before tapering off. There's still a chance a little sleet could mix with the snow Tuesday evening but I don't expect this to be a big deal. The larger disappointment with this storm relates to precipitation amounts which don't appear too hefty thanks to both the quick moving nature of this storm and its lack of intensity. As such, this looks to be a 3-6 inch event with much of it over by bedtime Tuesday evening. Flurries and a heavier snow shower or two on Wednesday will refresh the mountains with an additional inch or two but stability parameters are not suggesting a big Champlain/terrain induced snow event right now. Similar conditions are likely for Thursday as well but temperatures will be near 10 Thursday and closer to 20 Wednesday. Both days should feature a rather persistent northwest wind. More sunshine and less wind can then be expected by Friday with temperatures climbing up to around 20 after starting the day below zero.
Temperatures are expected to moderate by the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd but only gradually and not excessively. Upon closer examination, the polar jet will be close enough to bring the chance for a light snow event at some point next weekend while likely limiting any mild weather. The question then becomes whether northern New England can continue to repel an additional push of mild air around the 24th and 25th of the month. Recent model data is beginning to hint at that possibility and at least a chance that again, MRG and the surrounding high country can stay on the wintry side of the action. That said, I wouldn't entirely eliminate the risk of a thaw, especially somewhere around the 26th of the month. After that it looks better, thanks largely to what appears to be a somewhat neutralized set of teleconnection indices.
This next storm will attract a bit of both subtropical and Atlantic ocean moisture but is never expected to evolve into anything substantial. That said, precipitation with this system is expected to stay predominantly snow thanks to the somewhat stronger dome of cold (verses initial expectations) in place late Monday and early Tuesday and a weak area of low pressure that will develop near coastal New England Tuesday which will pinch off a good chunk of the mid-level warm surge. Precipitation will start as powdery snow and pretty much stay powdery snow late in the ski day Tuesday into the evening before tapering off. There's still a chance a little sleet could mix with the snow Tuesday evening but I don't expect this to be a big deal. The larger disappointment with this storm relates to precipitation amounts which don't appear too hefty thanks to both the quick moving nature of this storm and its lack of intensity. As such, this looks to be a 3-6 inch event with much of it over by bedtime Tuesday evening. Flurries and a heavier snow shower or two on Wednesday will refresh the mountains with an additional inch or two but stability parameters are not suggesting a big Champlain/terrain induced snow event right now. Similar conditions are likely for Thursday as well but temperatures will be near 10 Thursday and closer to 20 Wednesday. Both days should feature a rather persistent northwest wind. More sunshine and less wind can then be expected by Friday with temperatures climbing up to around 20 after starting the day below zero.
Temperatures are expected to moderate by the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd but only gradually and not excessively. Upon closer examination, the polar jet will be close enough to bring the chance for a light snow event at some point next weekend while likely limiting any mild weather. The question then becomes whether northern New England can continue to repel an additional push of mild air around the 24th and 25th of the month. Recent model data is beginning to hint at that possibility and at least a chance that again, MRG and the surrounding high country can stay on the wintry side of the action. That said, I wouldn't entirely eliminate the risk of a thaw, especially somewhere around the 26th of the month. After that it looks better, thanks largely to what appears to be a somewhat neutralized set of teleconnection indices.
Friday, February 14, 2020
Amazingly, MRG will stay mostly sub-freezing over the next 7 days with an excellent chance of staying mostly snow from our next storm (Tuesday)
Thursday's storm was a bit of a disappointment and I am not sure exactly how to describe that snow consistency. It didn't look particularly good but actually skied just fine and the excellent Vermont stretch of snow conditions was allowed to continue. Following a very cold Friday night and early Saturday (-15), a full dose of blue skies and sunshine will boost temperatures on the hill to near 20. The winds won't be non-existent Saturday as I had previously hoped. After starting out very calm winds will start blowing out of the south rather persistently during the afternoon which will help boost those temperatures but will have the effect of making it feel a bit colder. More clouds on Saturday night combined with a continued southerly breeze will actually keep readings near 20 before moving toward the freezing mark on Sunday. A period of light snow is possible from a very innocuous, hardly noticeable system well to our north either Saturday night or Sunday but accumulations will be minimal at best.
The news for the holiday and subsequent holiday week remains good but there is still room for improvement. Again, northern VT has shown some impressive resistance to what can appropriately described as a god-awful winter weather pattern. We may yet encounter more problems from this pattern but it doesn't look like those problems will really manifest during the upcoming week but it remains a close call with the main precipitation system late Tuesday. As for Washington's Birthday, it looks dry and cold thanks to a weak area of arctic high pressure. Winds actually do look rather calm and this will allow those high teens to feel tolerable.
It looks like just one single modest act as far as precipitation producing systems go next week. For a long time, ensembles had indicated potential trouble around February 17-18 thanks to what appeared to be a strengthening ridge in the jet stream along the east coast. This is why we play the games though and this is why medium range forecasting has its limitations. Our holiday Monday now appears "below normal" and Tuesday's system, in spite of a less than optimal forecast track, will have some cold air to work with. The clouds will arrive by early Tuesday (Feb 18) and the snow should arrive by midday. This is a quick moving storm with a substantial push of mid-level warmth but it will take some time to push critical layers of the atmosphere to the freezing point and beyond. Given the storm's quick movement, there hopefully won't be enough time. I would continue to expect at least the possibility of a wintry mix toward Tuesday night but window for this does look less and less and snowfall accumulations are starting to look better and better. Again, this won't be an epic storm but could certainly provide a refreshing 4-10 inches and hopefully no freezing rain. Colder air is expected to return Wednesday and with it will come the chance for snow showers. It remains a bit early to make a determination but winds do appear as if they will become favorable for some Champlain induced powder. Flurries could linger into Thursday but sunshine should also make an appearance and that should continue into Friday. Amazingly, temperatures could stay in sub-freezing territory the entire week ! The best chance for any above freezing temperatures comes late Tuesday and readings in the Wednesday-Friday period should stay in the teens by day and single numbers or below zero at night.
There are some more glaring signs of improvements in the weather pattern toward the very end of February into early March. Unfortunately that has been pushed back slightly and provided some room for more potential trouble in the February 23-26 time frame. The concern stems from indications in the ensemble data that a system might get pretty wrapped up across the southern Rocky Mountains and thus really pump the jet stream ridge across the east coast. There is a little doubt that it will allow the non-existent winter to persist across the mid-atlantic and southeast US. Those areas have been incredibly mild and have been basking in spring-like weather the entire month. Amazingly, both Washington D.C. and Atlanta have yet to record a temperature below 30 all month. Across Vermont though, perhaps we can continue to survive through it as we've done for the first half of February.
The news for the holiday and subsequent holiday week remains good but there is still room for improvement. Again, northern VT has shown some impressive resistance to what can appropriately described as a god-awful winter weather pattern. We may yet encounter more problems from this pattern but it doesn't look like those problems will really manifest during the upcoming week but it remains a close call with the main precipitation system late Tuesday. As for Washington's Birthday, it looks dry and cold thanks to a weak area of arctic high pressure. Winds actually do look rather calm and this will allow those high teens to feel tolerable.
It looks like just one single modest act as far as precipitation producing systems go next week. For a long time, ensembles had indicated potential trouble around February 17-18 thanks to what appeared to be a strengthening ridge in the jet stream along the east coast. This is why we play the games though and this is why medium range forecasting has its limitations. Our holiday Monday now appears "below normal" and Tuesday's system, in spite of a less than optimal forecast track, will have some cold air to work with. The clouds will arrive by early Tuesday (Feb 18) and the snow should arrive by midday. This is a quick moving storm with a substantial push of mid-level warmth but it will take some time to push critical layers of the atmosphere to the freezing point and beyond. Given the storm's quick movement, there hopefully won't be enough time. I would continue to expect at least the possibility of a wintry mix toward Tuesday night but window for this does look less and less and snowfall accumulations are starting to look better and better. Again, this won't be an epic storm but could certainly provide a refreshing 4-10 inches and hopefully no freezing rain. Colder air is expected to return Wednesday and with it will come the chance for snow showers. It remains a bit early to make a determination but winds do appear as if they will become favorable for some Champlain induced powder. Flurries could linger into Thursday but sunshine should also make an appearance and that should continue into Friday. Amazingly, temperatures could stay in sub-freezing territory the entire week ! The best chance for any above freezing temperatures comes late Tuesday and readings in the Wednesday-Friday period should stay in the teens by day and single numbers or below zero at night.
There are some more glaring signs of improvements in the weather pattern toward the very end of February into early March. Unfortunately that has been pushed back slightly and provided some room for more potential trouble in the February 23-26 time frame. The concern stems from indications in the ensemble data that a system might get pretty wrapped up across the southern Rocky Mountains and thus really pump the jet stream ridge across the east coast. There is a little doubt that it will allow the non-existent winter to persist across the mid-atlantic and southeast US. Those areas have been incredibly mild and have been basking in spring-like weather the entire month. Amazingly, both Washington D.C. and Atlanta have yet to record a temperature below 30 all month. Across Vermont though, perhaps we can continue to survive through it as we've done for the first half of February.
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Light snow event for early Thursday and can we fight off more potential trouble next week ?
Show some pride MRG and northern Vermont. The Arctic Oscillation is nearly off the charts positive, the pattern is not especially good but we have made every inch of 44.19 N latitude count and have managed to stay wintry for the first part of February. It has been a stick and mud abomination south of the Vermont border this winter and many ski areas across the mid-Atlantic region have struggled to simply get a few hours of sub-freezing temps the last two weeks !
Our Thursday storm is also on track to deliver. The storm has some moisture but will remain a flatish wave as it proceeds on its trajectory from the Ohio Valley Wednesday night to southern New England Thursday. Light to moderate snow will begin at MRG before dawn and continue until early afternoon before tapering off. Temperatures will be relatively close to the freezing mark across low lying areas but remain confined to the 20's across the high country which includes most of Mad River's skiable terrain. Most of the moisture with this system is expected to fall as rain and will fall south of the state. Northern Vermont is safely snow by at least 60 miles but without an amplifier, the snowfall should remain on the lighter side and accumulations will be in the 4-8 inch category. A nice little refill but no, not epicosity.
We have a rather serious but quick burst of arctic chill arriving on the heels of our little Thursday snow event. The cold will wait until very late in the ski day before arriving, but arrive it will and so so in force and with wind. Friday will be a dry day atop all the snowcover but temperatures will start the day below zero and struggle to reach 5 degrees on the mountain and it will feel much colder thanks to the effect of the wind (-30 or -40 at times). Saturday is also a dry and very bluebird day. Though temperatures will start close to -10, a strong dose of February sunshine and little wind will make it a rather comfortable winter day as temperatures rise to the high teens. More clouds are expected to arrive by Sunday but with milder temperatures of near 30 degrees. Yes, there remains a chance for some light snow Sunday but models have downgraded this system from a potency standpoint and indicate very little accumulation, at least as of now.
I want to stay on our 44.19 N latitude theme because we will need every inch of it again next week. I would take this weather pattern and place it straight in the outhouse if I had my way but we have fought, scratched and clawed our way through it so far and have a chance to do so again next week. First, it looks as if the holiday weekend is safe. A weak areas of arctic high pressure is expected to build over the state by Monday and keep readings very seasonable which for February is still way below freezing. The jet stream ridge along the east coast is expected to strengthen as low pressure begins organizing in the central plains. This storm has trouble written all over it but the forecasted track has improved somewhat and the continued presence of cold air in eastern Canada might provided us with a much needed assist. Given the challenging set of parameters that the weather pattern presents to us east coast skiers, I would consider a snow to wintry-mix scenario a moral victory. That said, the chances for a thaw and at least a partial rain event persist with this storm late on Tuesday into early Wednesday - February 18th and 19th. Another temporary burst of arctic cold arrives in the wake of the Tues/Wed storm followed by another modification. The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd still appears to be on the mild side but it remains a bit difficult to pinpoint what that might consist of.
After that, there are continued indications of slight improvements though I would hardly call it ideal. Just a bit of weakening in the Pacific and a neutral to positive looking PNA which would suggest a more normalish finish to the month or at least not excessively mild.
Our Thursday storm is also on track to deliver. The storm has some moisture but will remain a flatish wave as it proceeds on its trajectory from the Ohio Valley Wednesday night to southern New England Thursday. Light to moderate snow will begin at MRG before dawn and continue until early afternoon before tapering off. Temperatures will be relatively close to the freezing mark across low lying areas but remain confined to the 20's across the high country which includes most of Mad River's skiable terrain. Most of the moisture with this system is expected to fall as rain and will fall south of the state. Northern Vermont is safely snow by at least 60 miles but without an amplifier, the snowfall should remain on the lighter side and accumulations will be in the 4-8 inch category. A nice little refill but no, not epicosity.
We have a rather serious but quick burst of arctic chill arriving on the heels of our little Thursday snow event. The cold will wait until very late in the ski day before arriving, but arrive it will and so so in force and with wind. Friday will be a dry day atop all the snowcover but temperatures will start the day below zero and struggle to reach 5 degrees on the mountain and it will feel much colder thanks to the effect of the wind (-30 or -40 at times). Saturday is also a dry and very bluebird day. Though temperatures will start close to -10, a strong dose of February sunshine and little wind will make it a rather comfortable winter day as temperatures rise to the high teens. More clouds are expected to arrive by Sunday but with milder temperatures of near 30 degrees. Yes, there remains a chance for some light snow Sunday but models have downgraded this system from a potency standpoint and indicate very little accumulation, at least as of now.
I want to stay on our 44.19 N latitude theme because we will need every inch of it again next week. I would take this weather pattern and place it straight in the outhouse if I had my way but we have fought, scratched and clawed our way through it so far and have a chance to do so again next week. First, it looks as if the holiday weekend is safe. A weak areas of arctic high pressure is expected to build over the state by Monday and keep readings very seasonable which for February is still way below freezing. The jet stream ridge along the east coast is expected to strengthen as low pressure begins organizing in the central plains. This storm has trouble written all over it but the forecasted track has improved somewhat and the continued presence of cold air in eastern Canada might provided us with a much needed assist. Given the challenging set of parameters that the weather pattern presents to us east coast skiers, I would consider a snow to wintry-mix scenario a moral victory. That said, the chances for a thaw and at least a partial rain event persist with this storm late on Tuesday into early Wednesday - February 18th and 19th. Another temporary burst of arctic cold arrives in the wake of the Tues/Wed storm followed by another modification. The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd still appears to be on the mild side but it remains a bit difficult to pinpoint what that might consist of.
After that, there are continued indications of slight improvements though I would hardly call it ideal. Just a bit of weakening in the Pacific and a neutral to positive looking PNA which would suggest a more normalish finish to the month or at least not excessively mild.
Monday, February 10, 2020
Decent storm on track for Thursday and a bit of concern for next week
With the exception of the Carolina coastal areas, much of the east coast has been enveloped in a stretch of cloudy, rainy mild weather; basically, my least favorite form of winter weather. Vermont experienced a bit of mild weather as well on Monday but yet again, we've managed to stay on the wintry side of the action from a latitudinal standpoint. This trend is actually going to continue for the rest of this week it appears, though it remains a close call regarding the upcoming storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
All the rain and mild weather along the east coast is the result of a train of Pacific-based impulses that have managed to draw on subtropical moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, it is not the result of the more preferable split-flow pattern where a true southern branch of the jet stream can blend its moisture with an involved and dynamic polar jet stream. The jet stream in the Pacific continues to have a very consolidated look and Vermont weather weather enthusiasts will have to manage the situation according. Fortunately, there is some cold air to be had, and it continues to sit over eastern Canada and mitigate the northward influence of a strong southeast ridge in the jet stream. All of this might put us in the sweetspot Thursday morning. In the meantime, a weaker wave of low pressure will slide south and east of us along the southern New England coastline. If this were a stronger, more dynamic system, moisture and snowfall might reach much of Vermont, but this is a very weak system and precipitation, most of it being rain, will largely miss the state with the exception of the very southern most areas. Once the system clears the region, a weak area of high pressure will build across the area Tuesday night following another day cloudy but dry 28-33 degree day over the high country. Some areas over the northern green's can expect snow showers late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but most of Wednesday will be dry and at least somewhat sunny. Temperatures on Wednesday will continue to be mild, reaching the 30's and upper 30's over valley locations.
Thursday's storm originates out of the Gulf of Mexico and will thus bring plenty of moisture into the Ohio Valley and eventually into New England. There is some available cold air on the playing field but much of it arrives in the later parts of the storm. When precipitation arrives late Wednesday night, temperatures will be marginal and we will need an optimal storm track to keep our local atmospheric cross section below freezing. The consensus of data suggests the storm will track in a relatively optimal way (though not perfect), tracking just north of NYC to central Mass and off to the NH seacoast. If we can keep this track, MRG is just far enough north to support a mostly snowy setup. The snow might be a little we at first, especially at lower elevations, but cold arriving on Thursday will lower temperatures and allow the storm to finish on the powdery side. Accumulations would be in the 6-12 inch category. Temperatures are then expected to plummet Thursday night and Friday will begin with sub-zero readings.
It's a classic northern New England temperature roller coaster for the holiday weekend. The airmass on Friday is probably the season's coldest so far and it will land on us while we are enveloped in our deepest snowcover of the season. Friday will be a blustery day with dangerously cold wind chills at the summits and actual temperatures struggling to break zero. Winds will subside Friday night and allow temperatures to reach -15 or so by Saturday morning. A strong dose of February sunshine will allow readings to recover well on Saturday to a more manageable 10-15 above along with minimal wind. Sunday will feature more clouds and a bit more wind but it will be milder with readings up in the 20's. The push of warmer temperatures Sunday should also increase the chances for some snow though it remains difficult to say if any of that snow falls during or after the ski day.
Honestly, I am a bit concerned about the upcoming holiday week as a whole. This very marginal weather pattern which consists of very minimal amount of arctic air support and a strong, consolidated Pacific jet stream will present us with more challenges next week. This aforementioned jet strength in the Pacific weakened just enough these past few days into this week but is forecast to strengthen this weekend and allow for an already formidable east coast ridge to gain further strength. Might we find a way through all of this ? sure, we can hope, but there are two trouble spots next week and this makes the odds more difficult from a big picture standpoint. One possible rainy thaw comes either late Monday or Tuesday while another one threatens a few ski days later in the week. It is quite possible that one or both storms in question track more favorable resulting in winter weather or significant snow but there's cause for concern and my guess is that we get hit with at least one rain event in the 5 day period beginning Monday and ending Friday.
I can't promise a drastic improvement in the pattern after that but the PNA will provide us with a bit of support around the time of Sunday February 23rd thus allowing the east coast ridge to weaken and offering a bit more hope for the last full week of the month.
All the rain and mild weather along the east coast is the result of a train of Pacific-based impulses that have managed to draw on subtropical moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, it is not the result of the more preferable split-flow pattern where a true southern branch of the jet stream can blend its moisture with an involved and dynamic polar jet stream. The jet stream in the Pacific continues to have a very consolidated look and Vermont weather weather enthusiasts will have to manage the situation according. Fortunately, there is some cold air to be had, and it continues to sit over eastern Canada and mitigate the northward influence of a strong southeast ridge in the jet stream. All of this might put us in the sweetspot Thursday morning. In the meantime, a weaker wave of low pressure will slide south and east of us along the southern New England coastline. If this were a stronger, more dynamic system, moisture and snowfall might reach much of Vermont, but this is a very weak system and precipitation, most of it being rain, will largely miss the state with the exception of the very southern most areas. Once the system clears the region, a weak area of high pressure will build across the area Tuesday night following another day cloudy but dry 28-33 degree day over the high country. Some areas over the northern green's can expect snow showers late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but most of Wednesday will be dry and at least somewhat sunny. Temperatures on Wednesday will continue to be mild, reaching the 30's and upper 30's over valley locations.
Thursday's storm originates out of the Gulf of Mexico and will thus bring plenty of moisture into the Ohio Valley and eventually into New England. There is some available cold air on the playing field but much of it arrives in the later parts of the storm. When precipitation arrives late Wednesday night, temperatures will be marginal and we will need an optimal storm track to keep our local atmospheric cross section below freezing. The consensus of data suggests the storm will track in a relatively optimal way (though not perfect), tracking just north of NYC to central Mass and off to the NH seacoast. If we can keep this track, MRG is just far enough north to support a mostly snowy setup. The snow might be a little we at first, especially at lower elevations, but cold arriving on Thursday will lower temperatures and allow the storm to finish on the powdery side. Accumulations would be in the 6-12 inch category. Temperatures are then expected to plummet Thursday night and Friday will begin with sub-zero readings.
It's a classic northern New England temperature roller coaster for the holiday weekend. The airmass on Friday is probably the season's coldest so far and it will land on us while we are enveloped in our deepest snowcover of the season. Friday will be a blustery day with dangerously cold wind chills at the summits and actual temperatures struggling to break zero. Winds will subside Friday night and allow temperatures to reach -15 or so by Saturday morning. A strong dose of February sunshine will allow readings to recover well on Saturday to a more manageable 10-15 above along with minimal wind. Sunday will feature more clouds and a bit more wind but it will be milder with readings up in the 20's. The push of warmer temperatures Sunday should also increase the chances for some snow though it remains difficult to say if any of that snow falls during or after the ski day.
Honestly, I am a bit concerned about the upcoming holiday week as a whole. This very marginal weather pattern which consists of very minimal amount of arctic air support and a strong, consolidated Pacific jet stream will present us with more challenges next week. This aforementioned jet strength in the Pacific weakened just enough these past few days into this week but is forecast to strengthen this weekend and allow for an already formidable east coast ridge to gain further strength. Might we find a way through all of this ? sure, we can hope, but there are two trouble spots next week and this makes the odds more difficult from a big picture standpoint. One possible rainy thaw comes either late Monday or Tuesday while another one threatens a few ski days later in the week. It is quite possible that one or both storms in question track more favorable resulting in winter weather or significant snow but there's cause for concern and my guess is that we get hit with at least one rain event in the 5 day period beginning Monday and ending Friday.
I can't promise a drastic improvement in the pattern after that but the PNA will provide us with a bit of support around the time of Sunday February 23rd thus allowing the east coast ridge to weaken and offering a bit more hope for the last full week of the month.
Friday, February 7, 2020
Weather pattern is nothing to brag about but the next 7 days appears promising for now
The recent storm pushes MRG passed the 100-inch mark for the season in emphatic fashion. It also illustrates how interior New England can sometimes manage a very marginal weather pattern and we will have to continue to do so because this same pattern is expected to continue. Though it looks like we might flirt with trouble over the next week, it looks very possible that we continue to make some welcome additions.
Winter weather enthusiasts will be greeted with near zero degree readings Saturday morning and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain in the single numbers throughout the day Saturday but the gusty winds will subside somewhat and set the stage for a calm but very cold Saturday night atop all that fresh snow cover. Some early sun on Sunday will then give way to clouds but temperatures will moderate from the subzero morning levels to near 20 in the afternoon.
The aforementioned weather pattern continues to be plagued by many familiar components. Though the jet stream in the Pacific is a little weaker this week, it remains very zonal while the Arctic Oscillation just seems to be flailing helplessly in positive territory as it has done all year. Fortunately, the two major areas of cold across the northern hemisphere, one over Alaska and another over Greenland will cast a wide enough net as to occasionally provide some cold weather assistance to northern New England with the case in point being Saturday Feb 8th. The pattern also sets the stage for the continued airmass clash as mild weather dominates areas south of 40 N while cold weather dominates areas north of 45 N. Vermont is situated on the more wintry side of this clash, although it is a little close for comfort. Nonetheless, there will be several chances for snow and wintry precip with the first coming Sunday night from a rapidly eastward moving and rather benign system. The snow Sunday night will be powdery with temperatures in the 20's but Monday's temperatures are expected to be milder and climb rather close to the freezing mark by the afternoon.
Two additional systems are likely to impact the east coast before Friday. The first appears more likely to impact areas south of Vermont on Tuesday while the 2nd, on Thursday, appears more significant and more impactful for Vermont as a whole. The late week storm could again go one of a few ways and given the persistent strength of the jet stream ridge in the southeast, a wintry mix or rain outcome is still possible. The storm could also bring another round of decent snows however and this is what several models have shown over the past two days. This is probably one of those situations where we would prefer a slightly weaker storm because a stronger and more amplified system would likely bring in some of those unwanted milder temperatures.
Another brief but intense round of cold weather follows Thursday's system and will ensure a wintry start to the holiday weekend. That cold air is indicated to moderate rather quickly by Sunday, February 16th followed by a mild day on President's Day, February 17th. Overall though I will sound like a broken record when it comes to what we should expect for the holiday week altogether. A continuation of very mild weather in the southeast will make 1 or 2 at New England and Vermont. Cold air situated over Canada will push back but temperatures will average above normal and are likely to cross freezing mark at least once or maybe twice that week. That said, winter weather is also possible with a strong, fast flowing jet stream aimed right at us.
Winter weather enthusiasts will be greeted with near zero degree readings Saturday morning and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain in the single numbers throughout the day Saturday but the gusty winds will subside somewhat and set the stage for a calm but very cold Saturday night atop all that fresh snow cover. Some early sun on Sunday will then give way to clouds but temperatures will moderate from the subzero morning levels to near 20 in the afternoon.
The aforementioned weather pattern continues to be plagued by many familiar components. Though the jet stream in the Pacific is a little weaker this week, it remains very zonal while the Arctic Oscillation just seems to be flailing helplessly in positive territory as it has done all year. Fortunately, the two major areas of cold across the northern hemisphere, one over Alaska and another over Greenland will cast a wide enough net as to occasionally provide some cold weather assistance to northern New England with the case in point being Saturday Feb 8th. The pattern also sets the stage for the continued airmass clash as mild weather dominates areas south of 40 N while cold weather dominates areas north of 45 N. Vermont is situated on the more wintry side of this clash, although it is a little close for comfort. Nonetheless, there will be several chances for snow and wintry precip with the first coming Sunday night from a rapidly eastward moving and rather benign system. The snow Sunday night will be powdery with temperatures in the 20's but Monday's temperatures are expected to be milder and climb rather close to the freezing mark by the afternoon.
Two additional systems are likely to impact the east coast before Friday. The first appears more likely to impact areas south of Vermont on Tuesday while the 2nd, on Thursday, appears more significant and more impactful for Vermont as a whole. The late week storm could again go one of a few ways and given the persistent strength of the jet stream ridge in the southeast, a wintry mix or rain outcome is still possible. The storm could also bring another round of decent snows however and this is what several models have shown over the past two days. This is probably one of those situations where we would prefer a slightly weaker storm because a stronger and more amplified system would likely bring in some of those unwanted milder temperatures.
Another brief but intense round of cold weather follows Thursday's system and will ensure a wintry start to the holiday weekend. That cold air is indicated to moderate rather quickly by Sunday, February 16th followed by a mild day on President's Day, February 17th. Overall though I will sound like a broken record when it comes to what we should expect for the holiday week altogether. A continuation of very mild weather in the southeast will make 1 or 2 at New England and Vermont. Cold air situated over Canada will push back but temperatures will average above normal and are likely to cross freezing mark at least once or maybe twice that week. That said, winter weather is also possible with a strong, fast flowing jet stream aimed right at us.
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
Storm poised to deliver us 1-2 feet beginning early Thursday and ending late Friday though the freezing rain concern remains for Thursday evening
Our late week storm looks to be a pretty big one, albeit not without imperfections and is certainly worthy of another update as details continue to get sorted and digested. The critical question continues to revolve around the freezing rain issue; because, well, we're skiers and that precipitation type can be very unkind to skiers. Though sleet isn't exactly powder and is certainly high on density, we can live with it and I've have certainly made a few solid turns through it. I can't speak for everyone though and I wouldn't pretend to.
We remain on target for a Thursday morning burst of overrunning snow beginning around 6 am or so. The snow will fall steadily throughout the morning, accumulating 4-6 inches by early afternoon. The initial burst of precipitation however still constitutes the warm part of this very formidable storm system. A very strong push of milder air is expected to make the trek to Vermont late on Thursday but on the whole, this push looks a bit weaker thanks mostly to the fact that the storm appears a bit further south than it did 24-36 hours ago. That said, precipitation will change to sleet late in the ski day Thursday and continue as such through the early evening. Model data has converged considerably on the strength of the inversion responsible for the precipitation. It is no longer capable, according to forecast data, of taking temperatures into the 40's at the summit of Mt Ellen or General Stark and is now likely to fail and bringing readings above freezing anywhere ! That said, it could remain strong enough to produce a period of freezing rain. It is very, very very close. I tweeted about the higher resolution NAM indicating no freezing rain. The just released European shows what looks to be a minimal period and the most recent American model indicates a period that could extend 12 hours. According to that same American model however, all you have to do is travel 40 miles northwest of the MRV and pretty much avoid the icing entirely. Again, it is that close and it goes without saying that the icing risk is less up toward Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak while higher at places like Killington, Pico, Okemo and points south.
And now to the best part of this storm - Friday. Thanks to an incredibly timely infusion of jet energy, the storm will refocus and consolidate itself over the Mid-Atlantic and continue to strengthen as it tracks right into our wheelhouse - the goal posts marked by Cape Cod and Boston. The light wintry mix will become steady and at times heavy wind driven snow on Friday and bring us 8-16 mostly powdery inches. I haven't really talked about temperatures too much actually. The snow early Thursday will be accompanied by readings in the high teens and low 20's. Temperatures could get as high as 25-30 Thursday evening but the heavier wind driven snow on Friday will feature temperatures mostly in the low 20's.
Saturday should feature the return of a bit of sunshine after some early morning flurries. It will be blustery in the morning, but less so in the afternoon and it will be quite cold with readings in teh single numbers all day. A good old fashion post-storm winter day in Vermont. Enjoy.
We remain on target for a Thursday morning burst of overrunning snow beginning around 6 am or so. The snow will fall steadily throughout the morning, accumulating 4-6 inches by early afternoon. The initial burst of precipitation however still constitutes the warm part of this very formidable storm system. A very strong push of milder air is expected to make the trek to Vermont late on Thursday but on the whole, this push looks a bit weaker thanks mostly to the fact that the storm appears a bit further south than it did 24-36 hours ago. That said, precipitation will change to sleet late in the ski day Thursday and continue as such through the early evening. Model data has converged considerably on the strength of the inversion responsible for the precipitation. It is no longer capable, according to forecast data, of taking temperatures into the 40's at the summit of Mt Ellen or General Stark and is now likely to fail and bringing readings above freezing anywhere ! That said, it could remain strong enough to produce a period of freezing rain. It is very, very very close. I tweeted about the higher resolution NAM indicating no freezing rain. The just released European shows what looks to be a minimal period and the most recent American model indicates a period that could extend 12 hours. According to that same American model however, all you have to do is travel 40 miles northwest of the MRV and pretty much avoid the icing entirely. Again, it is that close and it goes without saying that the icing risk is less up toward Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak while higher at places like Killington, Pico, Okemo and points south.
And now to the best part of this storm - Friday. Thanks to an incredibly timely infusion of jet energy, the storm will refocus and consolidate itself over the Mid-Atlantic and continue to strengthen as it tracks right into our wheelhouse - the goal posts marked by Cape Cod and Boston. The light wintry mix will become steady and at times heavy wind driven snow on Friday and bring us 8-16 mostly powdery inches. I haven't really talked about temperatures too much actually. The snow early Thursday will be accompanied by readings in the high teens and low 20's. Temperatures could get as high as 25-30 Thursday evening but the heavier wind driven snow on Friday will feature temperatures mostly in the low 20's.
Saturday should feature the return of a bit of sunshine after some early morning flurries. It will be blustery in the morning, but less so in the afternoon and it will be quite cold with readings in teh single numbers all day. A good old fashion post-storm winter day in Vermont. Enjoy.
Tuesday, February 4, 2020
Some ice and even rain look likely Thursday night but big snowfall potential remains with this storm according to some just released model data
Consistent with the prevailing trend of the entire winter so far, it seemed as if another opportunity for a big winter storm has slipped from our grasp. The debate is not over however and the possibilities for a decent amount of snowfall remain in spite of what appears to be some unavoidable period of wintry mix or possibly even rain in the middle of all this. There are a few chapters in this story and it starts with arctic air, which will envelop Vermont beginning Tuesday evening and provide the MRV with a little bit of snow Tuesday evening and a wintry but dry day Wednesday. There will be some opportunity for a bit of sunshine Wednesday before clouds from the upcoming storm arrive very late in the day or in the evening.
There appears to be two opportunities for new snowfall from this storm bracketing what is certainly a troubling middle. The initial area of low pressure will approach Thursday and travel just south of the St Lawrence Valley. It will bring with it, a major league push of milder temperatures, but given the somewhat fresh supply of chill that will encompass northern Vermont Thursday morning, it will take some work to scour out the cold. The result will be a decent period of overrunning snow beginning around dawn and persisting through early afternoon. The snow should be heavy enough to bring a few inches of fresh powder before precipitation chances to sleet and then to freezing rain. The inversion, responsible for the precipitation change is no joke and is centered right around 3000-5000 feet above the surface (About the height of Mt Ellen & Stark). This will mean that summit temperatures will likely exceed readings in low lying areas for several hours Thursday evening.
With all that said, the latest version of the European model (just released around this update) has shifted south somewhat and is actually showing a COLDER storm verses the once colder American model. It's model chaos. This would limit the window for any freezing rain or rain Thursday evening and might amplify what we hope is 2nd period for decent snow on Friday. The initial low pressure center will actually track a bit too far ahead of the associated jet dynamics and as the latter approaches the east coast, it will allow the storm to refocus its energy somewhere over Virginia. As this process takes place, the warm inversion will weaken and ultimately be eliminated and any rain/freezing rain will become snow Friday morning. The eventual track and intensification of the "regenerated" coastal low is pretty critical to snowfall amounts Friday and computer models are varying from a few inches to as much as a foot. I was certainly encouraged with the recently released European model however. Hope is kindled !
Regarding specific accumulations, the overruning snow Thursday morning appears to be of the 3-6 inch range to me. As mentioned there is more uncertainty with the snowfall Friday (after the freezing rain/rain) but higher potential. For time being lets let the various models guide us to the 3-12 inch range and we can narrow this down over time.
Friday's storm will exit quickly and some sunshine should return for Saturday along with temperatures in the single numbers and teens. Blustery conditions should prevail in the morning but winds should dissipate by the end of the day. A weaker area of low pressure has a chance to bring some snow to parts of southern New England Saturday night into Sunday but for the time being this is expected to steer clear of Vermont though that feature might spread some clouds into the state for early Sunday. Sunday's temperatures will moderate somewhat by the afternoon but could start the day in sub-zero territory.
The jet stream in the Pacific continues to show signs of weakening over the course of the next week but I would hesitate to call it favorable (at least not yet). And we don't have any help from the PNA, NAO or AO which collectively leaves us with a bit of an uphill climb. That said, a ridge in the stream over the southeastern United States does appear as if it will confine its influence to the southeastern United States. An area of unsettled weather and relative chill is meanwhile indicated to position itself over the Labrador Sea. To me, this translates into a bit of a repeat of the current week. It's a horror show for winter weather over the Mid Atlantic states but Vermont and other parts of interior northern New England will have a chance at scoring more snowfall. We can and always will continue to hope.
There appears to be two opportunities for new snowfall from this storm bracketing what is certainly a troubling middle. The initial area of low pressure will approach Thursday and travel just south of the St Lawrence Valley. It will bring with it, a major league push of milder temperatures, but given the somewhat fresh supply of chill that will encompass northern Vermont Thursday morning, it will take some work to scour out the cold. The result will be a decent period of overrunning snow beginning around dawn and persisting through early afternoon. The snow should be heavy enough to bring a few inches of fresh powder before precipitation chances to sleet and then to freezing rain. The inversion, responsible for the precipitation change is no joke and is centered right around 3000-5000 feet above the surface (About the height of Mt Ellen & Stark). This will mean that summit temperatures will likely exceed readings in low lying areas for several hours Thursday evening.
With all that said, the latest version of the European model (just released around this update) has shifted south somewhat and is actually showing a COLDER storm verses the once colder American model. It's model chaos. This would limit the window for any freezing rain or rain Thursday evening and might amplify what we hope is 2nd period for decent snow on Friday. The initial low pressure center will actually track a bit too far ahead of the associated jet dynamics and as the latter approaches the east coast, it will allow the storm to refocus its energy somewhere over Virginia. As this process takes place, the warm inversion will weaken and ultimately be eliminated and any rain/freezing rain will become snow Friday morning. The eventual track and intensification of the "regenerated" coastal low is pretty critical to snowfall amounts Friday and computer models are varying from a few inches to as much as a foot. I was certainly encouraged with the recently released European model however. Hope is kindled !
Regarding specific accumulations, the overruning snow Thursday morning appears to be of the 3-6 inch range to me. As mentioned there is more uncertainty with the snowfall Friday (after the freezing rain/rain) but higher potential. For time being lets let the various models guide us to the 3-12 inch range and we can narrow this down over time.
Friday's storm will exit quickly and some sunshine should return for Saturday along with temperatures in the single numbers and teens. Blustery conditions should prevail in the morning but winds should dissipate by the end of the day. A weaker area of low pressure has a chance to bring some snow to parts of southern New England Saturday night into Sunday but for the time being this is expected to steer clear of Vermont though that feature might spread some clouds into the state for early Sunday. Sunday's temperatures will moderate somewhat by the afternoon but could start the day in sub-zero territory.
The jet stream in the Pacific continues to show signs of weakening over the course of the next week but I would hesitate to call it favorable (at least not yet). And we don't have any help from the PNA, NAO or AO which collectively leaves us with a bit of an uphill climb. That said, a ridge in the stream over the southeastern United States does appear as if it will confine its influence to the southeastern United States. An area of unsettled weather and relative chill is meanwhile indicated to position itself over the Labrador Sea. To me, this translates into a bit of a repeat of the current week. It's a horror show for winter weather over the Mid Atlantic states but Vermont and other parts of interior northern New England will have a chance at scoring more snowfall. We can and always will continue to hope.
Sunday, February 2, 2020
We've given ourselves a chance for something big Thursday/Friday
Lots of very mild weather will encompass the eastern part of the United States over the next few days and Vermont will stay mostly out of it. We have many more questions beyond those involving the mild air and we will address all that. The outlook going forward has inched in the right direction but it starts with a bit of a miss, as most of the snow Sunday night into Monday morning will fall south and east of northern Vermont. Monday will feature clouds, flurries or a bit of light snow in the morning but it's no longer expected to amount to much. Temperatures on the mountain might creep above the freezing mark but we will avoid the torch and readings should stay in the 30's.
As expected, there are some significant changes in the outlook for the week but Monday continues to look like the week's mildest day. A modified area of arctic cold will, as expected, push south late on Tuesday and that front will bring a period of light snow to the MRV Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Tuesday's temperatures could again challenge the freezing mark but will fall back into the low 20's as snow accumulates a few inches by Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday will be dry, sub-freezing and might present the only opportunity for any blue sky or sunshine in this upcoming Monday-Friday stretch.
It looks like all the fun stuff comes Thursday and Friday. The big east coast airmass clash is certainly a contributing factor to what appears to be a big precipitation fest across New England late in the week, but an amplifying jet stream Friday might provide a final and very welcome twist to this weather bonanza. Precipitation will arrive in the form of snow early Thursday. This initial burst of snow will be significant and will result from a warm push of air up the east coast. Temperatures will be cold enough Thursday (teens) and snow will be heavy enough to make for what I think will be a nice powder day. The questions will begin as the day progresses and as the mid-level push of mild air makes its Vermont approach. Will this mild air be strong enough to change precipitation to sleet and most importantly freezing rain late on Thursday and Thursday night ? The answer is no according to recent data from the American and Canadian model, but yes according to data from the European model. Model data is moving closer to a more definitive answer on this question as of late Sunday, but the freezing rain question still remains.
The final twist involves a regenerated area of low pressure that is expected to form in more direct association with the jet dynamics Thursday evening over Virginia. If the storm manages to refocus its energy over the Mid-Atlantic successfully it could provide us with two major benefits. First, it would end the push of mid-level warmth and limit any potential freezing rain window and most importantly bring us a potential additional significant period of snowfall on Friday. In its entirety, the storm has the potential for being the best of the year so far but the possibility of ice late on Thursday remains a threat and those details will need to be sorted out over the next few days. For the time being, I do feel pretty good about some decent powder early Thursday.
Colder temperatures should dominate Vermont through the weekend of February 8th and 9th with snow possible on Sunday. After that its another week featuring a southeast ridge battling it out with arctic air. It's a dangerous game Vermont plays when this pattern prevails, but the results can be good when the strength of the southeast ridge can be mitigated. Over the last few days, that appears to be the trend thanks largely to what appears to be a more neutralized if not, dare I say it, negative EPO in the Pacific. When it comes to forecasts of a weakening the jet in the Pacific - I can hope but I'll believe it when I see it.
As expected, there are some significant changes in the outlook for the week but Monday continues to look like the week's mildest day. A modified area of arctic cold will, as expected, push south late on Tuesday and that front will bring a period of light snow to the MRV Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Tuesday's temperatures could again challenge the freezing mark but will fall back into the low 20's as snow accumulates a few inches by Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday will be dry, sub-freezing and might present the only opportunity for any blue sky or sunshine in this upcoming Monday-Friday stretch.
It looks like all the fun stuff comes Thursday and Friday. The big east coast airmass clash is certainly a contributing factor to what appears to be a big precipitation fest across New England late in the week, but an amplifying jet stream Friday might provide a final and very welcome twist to this weather bonanza. Precipitation will arrive in the form of snow early Thursday. This initial burst of snow will be significant and will result from a warm push of air up the east coast. Temperatures will be cold enough Thursday (teens) and snow will be heavy enough to make for what I think will be a nice powder day. The questions will begin as the day progresses and as the mid-level push of mild air makes its Vermont approach. Will this mild air be strong enough to change precipitation to sleet and most importantly freezing rain late on Thursday and Thursday night ? The answer is no according to recent data from the American and Canadian model, but yes according to data from the European model. Model data is moving closer to a more definitive answer on this question as of late Sunday, but the freezing rain question still remains.
The final twist involves a regenerated area of low pressure that is expected to form in more direct association with the jet dynamics Thursday evening over Virginia. If the storm manages to refocus its energy over the Mid-Atlantic successfully it could provide us with two major benefits. First, it would end the push of mid-level warmth and limit any potential freezing rain window and most importantly bring us a potential additional significant period of snowfall on Friday. In its entirety, the storm has the potential for being the best of the year so far but the possibility of ice late on Thursday remains a threat and those details will need to be sorted out over the next few days. For the time being, I do feel pretty good about some decent powder early Thursday.
Colder temperatures should dominate Vermont through the weekend of February 8th and 9th with snow possible on Sunday. After that its another week featuring a southeast ridge battling it out with arctic air. It's a dangerous game Vermont plays when this pattern prevails, but the results can be good when the strength of the southeast ridge can be mitigated. Over the last few days, that appears to be the trend thanks largely to what appears to be a more neutralized if not, dare I say it, negative EPO in the Pacific. When it comes to forecasts of a weakening the jet in the Pacific - I can hope but I'll believe it when I see it.