Cold through the weekend with snowfall limited to sporadic snow showers followed by some mild weather next week

 So the instability did bring in some very intense snow squalls Monday evening but I did neglect to mention the wind, which ferocious both Monday night into Tuesday, gusting to  over 50 mph across the summits of the northern Green Mountains and well over 100 mph for several hours at the summit of Mount Washington. The gusty winds will not completely abate by Wednesday but will subside to the more tolerable 10-20 mph range as opposed to the 30-40 mph range. The cold will also subside for a day with temperatures rising from the single numbers in the morning to about the freezing mark during the afternoon on the mountain and into the high 30's in the valley locations. Though clouds will be accompanied by a few intervals of sun during the day Wednesday, we can expect a small accumulation, 1-2 inches, of snow during the preceding overnight and more light snow is possible later in the day Wednesday as another arctic boundary approaches. 

The general ideas for the Thursday March 4th to Monday March 8th period have not changed. Temperatures on the mountain are expected to stay below the freezing mark but the threat for significant snow from any organized weather system remains low. The jet stream trough remaining just to our east places us in the more dry flank for any kind of weather. All this said, March is a more unstable month, climatologically speaking, thanks mostly to the combined effect of a higher sun angle and the lingering more winter-like jet stream dynamics. This means that even without the presence of a more organized synoptic weather system, snow showers or at least flurries will enhance as Thursday, Friday and Saturday progress and then dissipate upon each sunset. The wind will also return and will likely be an accompanying companion through the weekend, gusting again to 30 mph both Thursday and  Friday and continuing through the weekend at perhaps a slightly less intensity. Temperatures won't do much better than 20 each day on the mountain with the exception of Sunday which could reach the high 20's. 

 It seems that models finally have reached the conclusion that it will get pretty mild for a period of time next week.  Though most of Monday still appears to be sub-freezing on the mountain, the period between Tuesday March 9th and Friday March 12th could feature a decent round of thawing. The nature of this round of mild weather remains a bit uncertain however even though I think a sustained 48 hour period of 40-plus temperatures is looking more likely somewhere in this time frame. The questions relate to whether low clouds, fog or precipitation hinders the intensity of the warm up or whether we can actually procure 1-2 days with sunshine and readings closer to or above 50. History would suggest to me that interior New England can expect one good torchy day accompanied by sunshine with the surrounding days featuring more cloudiness. 

Those changes in the Pacific discussed in the last update are still likely to manifest themselves into a colder more typical March weather regime after March 13th. Though it doesn't appear to be period defined by sustained below normal temperatures, it does look very typical for mid to late March in Vermont and it certainly would reopen the door for more winter weather.