Winter locked in for the weekend with a big spring-tease for Tuesday - Thursday of next week

 It is a quiet snow forecast for the next week. It's not a dead snow outlook and winter 2021 is not dead but the warmer weather that has been promised to us for a few weeks, will arrive in the form of at least 2 50-plus days. In the near term however, it remains very wintry with temperatures that will struggle to reach the 20-degree mark both Friday and Saturday and will not do so at all above 2000 feet. Persistent winds of around 20-30 mph Friday and 15-25 mph Saturday will create wind chill readings below zero. Sunday's temperatures do look a few degrees warmer (20-25) and the wind appears a bit diminished but its nonetheless, a very cold weekend and a chilly first week to March with temperatures about 6-9 below average. As far as the snow forecast is concerned, northern Vermont is likely to pick up a little from snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. About 1-3 inches from Sugarbush northward. More flurries and snow showers can also be expected Saturday afternoon but I would only expect a dusting from those. Sunday will be dry. 

The last wintry day ahead of the big spring tease is Monday and it looks to be a nice one with decent amounts of sunshine, less amounts of wind and excellent visibility. On the mountain, temperatures should stay in the sub-freezing zone though valley areas could see readings in the middle 30's. Models are hinting at some warm-advection snow Monday night, but the strong push of spring-like warmth for the middle of the week would render any accumulation as a pretty small footnote. 

I am pretty happy with how the forecast has evolved regarding the warmth. Tuesday's near 40-degree temperatures when combined with the low dewpoints might not be enough to soften the snow at all elevations but increasing amounts of sunshine should still make for a beautiful day. I think Wednesday looks to be the real winner though with temperatures well  into the 50's at low elevations, well into the 40's across the high country and enough sunshine to make for both good visibility and soft snow. Thursday looks extremely mild as well (with temps at least as high as Wednesday) but winds look stronger, clouds look more prevalent and there's a chance for some rain. I want to leave some room for the Thursday forecast to improve because we know it will be mild, but have not gotten all the specifics nailed down. 

The ongoing clash between the high latitude jet stream blocking (cold) and irritated Pacific jet stream (mild) has seemingly raged all winter season but it seems as if both sides are experiencing battle fatigue and either have or will retreat. The blocking vanished 2 weeks ago and has opened the door for the spring tease next week while the Pacific is expected to recede over the next week allowing winter to return, especially across interior New England beginning March 13th. Over the last two days, ensembles have been reaffirming this notion going so far (as of Friday morning) as to suggest a stretch of below normal temperatures beginning on the 13th and persisting beyond the 20th. There's certainly room in this type of outlook for a significant snow event or two; in fact, I would more surprised if we didn't get one.